The most interesting weather news that comes around early every month is the ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) diagnostic discussion and the latest one arrived yesterday. Here at StormTrack9 we monitor the progress of the ENSO cycle closely because it usually has a significant effect on our Winter weather. There was a moderate to strong La Nina in the Pacific Ocean last Winter and our conditions in Wisconsin were colder and more snowy than normal. The Winter also seemed to last forever as the La Nina ocean pattern continued into the Spring.

ENSO Computer Projections

So what is happening this year? The latest ENSO discussion indicates that a weak La Nina has formed and that it will remain weak to moderate over the next couple of months. In contrast to last year, the La Nina should end a bit earlier (based on historical comparisons). It should be strongest in December and January and then weaken late in the Winter. Even though there isn’t an exact correlation between our Winter conditions and La Nina, the last 3 times we have experienced La Nina, our Winter conditions have been more harsh. Thus, if we are to have some heavier snow or extended periods of colder than normal temps, I think it will occur during the first half of the Winter. If La Nina weakens in February and March (as projected) then I expect that late Winter and early Spring should be warmer than last year with less snow.

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Another important update is the list of top 4 winners in the FIRST SNOWFALL CONTEST of 2011. This morning on Wake-Up Wisconsin we randomly drew the top four and they are:

• 1st Place: Renee Kolpacki (Free car washes for a year + $50 R-store gift card)
• 2nd Place: Bob Butkus ($150 R-store gift card)
• 3rd Place: Rose Marie Piekarski ($100 R-store gift card)
• 4th Place: Dale Hanneman ($50 R-store gift card)

Everyone else who predicted the correct date of the first snowfall (9th of November) wins a free car wash coupon from the R-stores. For those who won and are reading this, the prizes will be mailed out next week. Congratulations to all the super snowfall forecasters. 16 people predicted the correct date. Thanks a bunch to the R-stores for once again providing the prizes.

One other very interesting weather nugget for this Veteran’s Day is an extreme change in temperature on November 11th back in 1911. In Oklahoma city they recorded a record high of 83 and a record low of 17 ON THE SAME DAY. In my opinion, this is one of the most interesting weather records of all time. I doubt we would ever see this here in Wisconsin. It would have to happen during the Winter if we ever had a chance, and the temperature would have to go from around 40 down to -30 in one day. Here are the rest of the details from that extreme day:

1911 – The central U.S. experienced perhaps its most dramatic cold wave of record. During the early morning temperatures across the Central Plains ranged from 68 degrees at Kansas City to 4 above North Platte NE. In Kansas City, the temperature warmed to a record 76 degrees by late morning before the arctic front moved in from the northwest. Skies become overcast, winds shifted to the northwest, and the mercury began to plummet. By early afternoon it was cold enough to snow, and by midnight the temperature had dipped to a record cold reading of 11 degrees above zero. Oklahoma City also established a record high of 83 degrees and record low of 17 degrees that same day. In southeastern Kansas, the temperature at Independence plunged from 83 degrees to 33 degrees in just one hour. The arctic cold front produced severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Mississippi Valley, a blizzard in the Ohio Va

Posted under ENSO Update, First Snowfall 2011, Weather History

With the recent snowstorm and all the interesting things that it brought up, I almost forgot that today is the anniversary of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald. I won’t go into great detail about it again (you can check this past blog post here if you are interested) except to highlight the idea that this shipwreck might not have ever been very famous except for the fact that Gordon Lightfoot wrote a song about it. The fact that is was the largest ore carrier at the time was also notable. Otherwise, shipwrecks on the Great Lakes were quite common during the 19th and 20th centuries.

Back to the snowstorm. It turns out the snowfall was a record one in Rhinelander and Wausau. Rhinelander checked in with 9.0 inches of snow which smashed the old record of 2.6 inches set back in 1926. In Wausau we barely broke the old record of 3.0 inches (set in 1896 and 1948) by tallying 3.2 inches. The heaviest snow generally fell in the eastern part of the area. East of Wausau and east of I-39, reports indicated anywhere from 5 to 9 inches. Farther west the totals were generally in the 1 to 5 inches range.

Not only was the 3.2 inches in Wausau a record, it also reached the criteria for our FIRST SNOWFALL CONTEST! All we needed was one inch. So November 9th is the winning date for the contest. It looks like 16 people predicted November 9th and they will be entered into the random drawing to determine who gets the top 4 prizes. Barring any technical difficulties (with the online entry database) we will be drawing the names on Wake-Up Wisconsin on Friday (tomorrow, November 11th, Veterans Day). As far our little internal office/media circle competition goes, Tony is the winner as he predicted November 8th and was the closest.

Here are the names of the 16 super snowfall forecasters who will be in the drawing on Friday:

1. Marvin Skrzypcak
2. Marge Brzezinski
3. Sally Scinto-Reinertson
4. Krissy Vaughan
5. Dale Hanneman
6. Karla Staus
7. Jessica Resch
8. Rachele Cherek
9. John Svoboda
10. Robert Anklam
11. Renee Kolpacki
12. Brad Gast
13. Rose Marie Piekarski
14. Bob Butkus
15. Candace Burch
16. 715-551-XXXX (this was an entry that was texted in and we haven’t heard back from them yet)

The big prizes up for grabs are:

1. Free car washes for one year plus a $50 gift card from the R-stores of Northcentral Wisconsin.
2. $150 gift card from the R-stores of Northcentral Wisconsin.
3. $100 gift card from the R-stores of Northcentral Wisconsin
4. $50 gift card from the R-stores of Northcentral Wisconsin

Everyone who is not drawn in the top 4 places will receive a free car wash coupon from the R-store.

Good luck to everyone!

Have a fine Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under First Snowfall 2011, Records, Weather History

Just a little update on the snowfall for today. Due to the unfrozen ground, a lot of the snow is melting as it falls. Snow was falling from 7:00 to 9:30am here in Wausau before anything began to stick on the grass. I still expect to reach one inch of snow accumulation in Wausau, and thus we should have winners in our First Snowfall contest. If today ends up being the winning date in the snowfall contest, then we will have a drawing for the top 4 prizes during Wake-Up Wisconsin on Friday morning.

A more difficult question is whether we will end up breaking the record snow fall here in Wausau for November 9th. The record is 3.0 inches set in 1896 and again in 1948. I think it will be close, but based on current trends on the radar and model projections, we might fall just a little short.

In any case, there are many locations in the viewing area that have had more accumulation at the time of this writing. You can check out some of the viewer photographs here. Up to 3 inches has been reported in grassy areas. So many locations will end up with the forecast 4 to 6 inches. Be careful on the roadways. Thankfully the snow should be winding down during the 3pm to 5pm time frame, so hopefully the afternoon commute will not be to treacherous.

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An update on the most recent cold fusion story out of Italy (check yesterday’s blog post for more). The inventor of the latest cold fusion device (named the “E-cat”), Andrea Rossi, claims to have sold 3 units thus far. The people or companies who ordered the units have thus far remained anonymous. I (and Rossi) have said from the beginning that the market will be the ultimate decider of hope vs. hoax. Now that the device is being used outside of Rossi’s control, we should get validation. I am still more of a skeptic than believer. If there is some strange nuclear reaction going on, and it produces electricity at a competitve cost, then Rossi will be rich and the world’s energy problems will be solved. I do not exaggerate.

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Another story that I have been following that has reached a happy conclusion, is the Mars 500 experiment. This was a mock mission to Mars, where 6 astronauts were locked up in a mock space ship for 520 days – the amount of time it would take for a real trip using today’s technology. Here is an article where they share their thoughts about the mission.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under First Snowfall 2011, Space, Technology, Winter Weather

I hope everyone made it through the illogical and archaic clock change from this past weekend without much trouble. One thing that is common for people to associate with the clock change is the onset of Winter. November is officially a Fall month and it is not too often that we have major storms or cold during the month, however, when the sun starts setting before 5pm, everyone starts to think a little more about Winter.

It just so happens that this week IS Winter Weather Awareness Week in Wisconsin AND we could end up with our first significant snow of the season, so that old association with Winter and the clock change fits fairly well in 2011.

I will provide more Winter Weather safety facts and tips throughout the work week but for today I am just going to provide the one tip you should heed most closely, SLOW DOWN!! As is the case with flash flooding, most Winter Weather deaths in the modern day occur on the roadways. Hypothermia and heart attacks are concerns, but nothing is as dangerous as the roadways during the Winter. That is where almost ALL the trouble is and is where you should focus most of your attention during the Winter. On any day when precipitation is expected during the Winter be sure to leave early for work or school and drive slowly. Don’t be in a rush because you could end up dead. Cars are dangerous – especially in the Winter.

So when could we end up with snow this week? It looks like the first band of mixed precipitation will be moving through Northcentral Wisconsin late tonight or (more likely) on Tuesday morning. Right now, it looks like temps will be warm enough to prevent significant snowfall, however, there could be up to an inch accumulation in some spots. A higher chance for accumulating snow will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. It is during this time frame that a couple of inches of slushy snow could accumulate around central Wisconsin and 3 to 6 inches could fall in the far northwest part of the viewing area. By far northwest, I am talking about cities such as Ogema, Phillips, Park Falls, Mercer, Minocqua, and Manitowish Waters.

Snow amounts are still very preliminary and it will be tough to get accurate measurement when the time comes because temps will be above freezing and the ground is not frozen yet. So, it could snow 6 inches in the north but it might only look like 2 or 3 inches after a few hours because it will be melting from the top and the bottom.

Will there be an inch in Wausau? I think the odds are greater than 50% that we could end up with an inch. If so, we could have our winners for the First Snowfall Contest. If an inch falls on either Tuesday or Wednesday of this week, then we will probably hold the drawing for the top 4 prize winners on Friday of this week on Wake-Up Wisconsin. As far as our circle of Channel 9 personalities and media friends goes (people who are not eligible for the prizes), it looks like Tony Schumacher has a good shot of winning, since he picked November 8th and would be the closest.

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One important update I wanted to pass along about an energy issue that I blog about from time-to-time is cold fusion. As you know, I am fairly skeptical that this type of fusion reaction can occur or be commercialized, but I always keep my mind open and hopes up. Cold fusion is a theorized reaction where fusion occurs by electro-chemical means at lower temperatures than nuclear fusion is commonly known to occur. If it was a process that could be contained and used to produce electricity, it would revolutionize the world. The problems is that the many experiments that have purported to show cold fusion to be true, are very hard or impossible to reproduce on a consistent basis (otherwise we would already be swimming in a world of nearly free energy). The latest incarnation of the cold fusion mystery happened in Italy earlier this year. I blogged about it here. Now we finally have an update on the inventors and their tribulations. The main inventor, Andrea Rossi, has built a bigger cold fusion device but still will not let anyone see the inner workings. He does not want to let anyone see the inside because it is a trade secret and he doesn’t have patent protection. As far as anyone who has measured the energy input and output of the device, they all say that it produces a lot more than what is fed in. Early this year, Rossi said that even though he is being secretive, that the market will tell the ultimate truth. If he has produced cold fusion and his device can produce electricity cheaper than traditional sources, then he will be vindicated. So far, no market test. It will be wait and see.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, First Snowfall 2011, Winter Weather

One thing I would like to mention first in today’s blog post is an event occurring this weekend. If you have not made weekend plans yet, and you like to get a little exercise, then the Sports Den cancer awareness run/walk/ride might be the ticket for you. It begins at 10am on Saturday October 8th at the Sports Den in Marshfield. They have bike rides, runs, and walks of varying distance and the weather should be quite nice. The wind will be a little gusty but temps should be mild. You can support cancer research and get some exercise at the same time.

The weather will be very warm and pleasant for the next few days but it might not stay that way for long. Looking at the extended weather charts, it appears there is at least a hint of a big cool down for the area around the  20th of October. At least one computer model is indicating a slight chance of snow. This could have bearing on the snowmelt contest. A few people did predict mid to late October. Looking out in the forecast 14 or 15 days is usually futile because the weather changes so much and so rapidly in our part of the country, but I just wanted to keep everyone up to date every time at least a hint of snow is in the forecast. So what are the odds. At this point, I would put the chance of 1 inch of snow on or around the 20th of this month very close to zero – but not exactly zero.

Accuwx's Winter Forecast

If we would happen to see an early snow this year, I am sure it would lift the spirits of forecasters at Accuwx (that is where Kristin Connolly works now). They have issued their Winter forecast and are expecting harsh conditions for our part of the country with bitter cold and a lot of snow. In fact, they use the word “brutal” more than once in the forecast. The basis of the forecast is that La Nina is expected to continue in the Pacific ocean. We had a very strong La Nina last Winter in the Pacific ocean and our winter – while not “brutal” – did have below normal temps and well above normal snowfall. The hallmark of last Winter was its length. The first inch of snow did not fall until November 24th but once it arrived it stuck around. We had snow on the ground into early April (3 or 4 weeks longer than normal), we had a record snow as late as April 20th and our last snow occurred on May 3rd. There was even ice along the river banks of the stream where I went fishing on the opening weekend of the fishing season! I didn’t mind the heavy snow or the few outbreaks of bitter cold, but the length of the winter was a little hard to deal with.

So are we in for a repeat of last year or even worse? I am not so confident it will happen – anyway I am not as confident as Accuwx. Due too the presence of La Nina, I am forecasting more snow than normal and colder than normal temps. Seeing that La Nina is not expected to be as strong as last year makes me think that the conditions will not be as bad as last winter. We will get another La Nina update in the next couple of days and see if it is going to strengthen more. Another aspect of La Nina I am dwelling on is that it has already formed, thus maybe it will not last as long as last year.

CPC Winter Temp Outlook

Maybe it will end before the end of Winter. In any case, I think there is plenty of uncertainty, enough that I would not use the word “brutal” just yet.

Officially, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a higher chance of below normal temps than above normal temps for our region of the country as well.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, ENSO Update, First Snowfall 2011, forecast, Winter Weather

It is a new month and it feels a lot like what it should’ve have felt like last month. September ended up a little bit below normal. This is interesting because there was plenty of warm weather early in the month and we had 6 days when the high temps hit 80 or higher. It was the cool rainy weather during the last 2 weeks of the month that really drove the temps below normal. September is the 7th month out of 9 so far this year that has been below normal.

The one thing above normal during the month was precipitation. In Wausau we ended up with 4.39 inches of precipitation while normal is 3.90 inches. There were no new records for the month but there was one very interesting precipitation event.

Bright Tree in Antigo - by Deb Steidl

We had exactly 1.03 inches of rainfall on consecutive days (the 25th and 26th) and it fell as two distinct rainstorms. There were no odd number patterns in the highs and lows. The most frequent high temps were 83 and 58 – each of which occurred 3 different times during the month. Without further ado, here are the official stats for Wausau:

Average High: 66.8  (normal: 68.8)

Average Low: 47.1  (normal: 48.1)

Precipitation: 4.39″  (normal 3.90″)

Snowfall: 0.00″  (normal 0.00″)

Highest Temperature: 87 on the 1st.

Lowest Temperature: 34 on the 15th

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In other news, I hope everyone was able to enter into the snowfall contest before the deadline last Friday. No new entries will be accepted. We are now watching and waiting for the first official 1 inch or greater snowfall here in Wausau. One thing is for sure, it is not coming this week. So if you picked early October, you are out of luck. Speaking of picking a date early in the season, that is where my prediction lies. Most people pick November and that is the obvious choice since the normal first inch of snow occurs on November 14th. This year, I decided to take a chance and go out on a limb. We haven’t had an inch or more of snow in October in quite a few years, so I suspect we might be overdue. I picked October 27th. Seeing as how the overall trend is for warmer than normal temps for this week and next, I might “go down early” in this contest. Here is the list of predictions from our office and media people who are not eligible to win the prizes from the R-stores of Northcentral Wisconsin.

Justin Loew: October 27th

Trav (Big Cheese 1079): November 2nd

Alex Haight: November 4th

Tony Schumacher: November 8th

Rob Duns: November 15th

Cristy (Big Cheese 1079): November 20th

Eric Westphal (Mix 96.7): November 21st

Cami Mountain: November 26th

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Lastly, just another update on the unbelievable ongoing regulatory problems faced by natural food producers and local growers – right here in the U.S. and in Wisconsin! Last week I brought the story of a Wisconsin Judge that proclaimed that no one has a fundamental right to grow and consume their own food. Yikes! Even worse this week is the story of the USDA threatening a gestapo-style raid and a $60,000 fine for growing an indoor lemon tree – in Wisconsin!

I am not sure how “buying local” is going to work out if the government keeps harassing and ruining local farming business. I can’t help but wonder when my life is going to be ruined by some soul-less government regulations. Might I be imprisoned for growing a backyard garden? Might I be fined thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars for growing a lemon tree in my house? Since I also have a lime tree, coffee tree, and a pomegranate bush, who knows, maybe the penalty is life in prison. I didn’t notice any comments on the topic last week. I wonder if anyone else is disturbed by this trend? I am well aware that younger folks tend to think food “comes from the grocery store” (and don’t really care), and that many people do not grow much if any of their own food, but this has still got to be a little scary to someone out there.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under First Snowfall 2011, Monthly Recap, Nature

The first thing I HAVE to mention is the first snowfall contest. If you haven’t yet entered, if you have been waiting and checking the extended weather charts to get the best read on trends, you had better get a move on. The deadline is midnight tonight. Just go here and predict the date of the first “official” one inch of snow in Wausau. The average date of the first one inch snowfall in Wausau is November 14th. Last year it was a little late, not ocurring until November 24th. Many years it does not hit until December. I will let everyone know my prediction Monday. I think I am going to take a chance and predict a date outside of what is normal – just to be a little different.

Secondly, this is the time of the week to take a look at the US Drought Monitor. For us, it is a bit boring, which is a good thing! Not much changed since last week. About 65% of the state is indicated as abnormally dry. The coverage of the dry conditions decreased only by a fraction of a percent. Given that we did just get through 11 days in a row of wet weather, I suspect that next week’s Drought Monitor report will show less dry areas in the state. The best news in the country is that some rain fell in Texas this past week. It was not widespread or heavy enough to end the record drought, but any drop is welcome, I am sure.

Recent Color - Bob Whetstone, Medford

Thirdly, I want to make sure to highlight this weekend’s weather. It will be nice for the 1st weekend of October. We should have plenty of sunshine and high temps in the 50s on Saturday and in the 60s on Sunday. According to the latest Fall Color Report, the color are near the peak in the northern half of the area and close to 50% for most of the rest of the area. This means, this weekend could be the best one for a nice Fall Color trip or drive. By next weekend we could have more clouds or rain. If you don’t have time to get out there over the weekend, there will be some very nice days early next week as well.

Fourthly (if that is a word), I want to continue on the theme of progress that I started with yesterday. I often talk about gains in efficiency and all the wonderful new breakthroughs in alternative energy but not too much about things as prosaic as food production but there are exciting things going on there as well.

Read almost any environmental-themed website and you will find a lot of concern (to put it mildly) about how humans are using up all the resources of the planet, we are running out of fresh water, there isn’t enough productive land or fertilizer to feed everyone, and basically we are all going to die (like this article). I am here to say that it is not as bad as it looks and that we will like find solutions to keep everything moving forward.

First and foremost, the root of the potential problem is population increase (which ties in with my recent blog post “Housing Starts Negative“). Worse yet, the countries with the least ability to feed themselves are the ones having the most kids. What is up with that? It is all backwards. People with the least ability to feed a family should not be having multiple kids. I guess, it is what it is, and people will continue to need food, so where will it come from?

How about from the quarter acre farm? It does not take a genius or tons of work to grow a significant amount of food on a typical city lot. I make most of the small part of my yard that receives adequate sunlight. I drive around and see many large suburban lots, not only here but all over the U.S., many that are more than an acre in size, being used to grow grass. If there was a food shortage, these big lots could grow enough food for multiple families. In short, there is plenty of productive land that could be used to produce food. It seems more and more people are getting into the homegrown revolution which is a good thing.

Unfortunately, the biggest obstacle to growing more of our own food might be the government. I cannot believe a judge in Wisconsin recently explained that people “do not have a fundamental right to produce and consume the foods of their choice”. Seriously!? This person is a judge in Wisconsin? We don’t have a right to have chickens and eat the eggs, own a cow and drink the milk, or grow a garden and eat the veggies, according to this fellow. Not without the government’s say so. And no, this is not a joke and it is not from the Onion. Grrrr. I had better stop before I blow my top.

Back to some of the good news. Even larger industrial-type agriculture has its share of innovation and each step makes it more likely that we will be able to produce more food with less energy, using less land and water that years past. Take a look at this recent development in aquaculture. A researcher in Texas has developed a new way to raise shrimp that involves a “racetrack” system of rearing the shrimp that uses less space than conventional outdoor ponds. The grow through successive stages of the equipment until they reach the bottom fully grown. Plans are being made to scale it up to factory size so we will soon find out if it lives up to its promise. Whereas not-so-environmentally-friendly outdoor ponds can produce 20,000 to 60,000 pounds of shrimp in a year, the racetrack system can produce a million pounds, using the same amount of water! If this system works at scale, then there will be much less pressure on the oceans of the world to produce seafood for humans.

Have a nice weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Ecology, Environment, Fall Color, First Snowfall 2011, Technology

For those of you excited about the first snowfall contest and want to enter, the best place to get in on the action is here: http://www.waow.com/story/15481664/2011-snow-fall-contest

Entering on our website is easy, however, if you prefer mailing in your entry you can send a letter or postcard with your prediction, name, and mailing address to:

WAOW-TV Snowfall Contest

1908 Grand Avenue

Wausau, WI 54403

You can also send an email with your prediction, name, and physical mailing address to weather@waow.com. We need your mailing address in case you win one of the top prizes.

You can also text your entry with your cell phone. Just text ”SNOWFLAKE” to 28214.

It would be best to not leave your prediction in the comment section of the blog. For those of you who have already left your prediction in the blog, don’t worry, I entered you in the contest. However, it would be best to not leave your prediction in the comment section

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And now an update on the falling UARS satellite that I mentioned a couple weeks ago in the blog. It is still falling and NASA experts say it will finally come to a fiery end on this Friday afternoon - tomorrow, September 23rd. NASA says that the U.S. is in the clear – that the debris will not fall here, but it is not an exact science. It would be neat to see it burning up in the sky, just as long as pieces do not fall on my house.

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CPC Dec-Jan-Feb Outlook

Another follow up here on the CPC monthly outlooks which Tony first mentioned a couple of days ago. The highlight of the forecast is that the CPC is forecasting a greater chance of above normal temps for our area during the month of October. It is not a guarantee that the temps will be above normal, just that there is a greater chance than being below normal. If we do end up warmer than normal, then perhaps we will have a real nice Fall color season. The other important thing to note is that the Winter forecast is still showing a greater chance of below normal temperatures, probably due to the presence of La Nina once again in the Pacific ocean. Historically, La Nina hasn’t always meant colder than normal winter-time temps with above normal snowfall, but the last three La Nina’s have been different. Each of the last three La Nina episodes was correlated with cold and snow here in Wausau. If La Nina sticks around through the entire Winter then I think we can once again expect a bit longer and harsher than normal winter. The key here is the length of La Nina. Since it has already formed, then maybe it will come to an early demise before the end of Winter. La Ninas (and El Ninos) usually last 8 months to a year, but can go longer.

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Lastly, this week’s US Drought Monitor indicates no chance in the conditions across Wisconsin. About 65% of the state is drought free. The rest is abnormally dry. The half inch to an inch of rain we saw on Sunday really helped out. In the south of the U.S. where the extreme drought is located there has been very slight improvement in drought conditions. It isn’t anything to write home about but at least it is better than going the other direction.

Have a pleasant Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Drought, First Snowfall 2011, Space