This post is for all the gardeners and farmers out there who are at the cusp of planting frost-sensitive plants such as corn, tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, melons, etc… A good rule of thumb is to wait until after Memorial Day weekend. If there is frost after that point, there is nothing you can do except cover your plants. You can’t plant later into June, waiting for that last threat of frost to pass (which happens some years) because the growing season is not long enough around these parts.

So what does it look like this year? It looks like there will be a threat of frost this upcoming weekend – Memorial Day weekend. Particularly on Saturday and Sunday morning. How much of a threat? It looks like frost is highly likely in some of the traditional cold spots, such as low lying areas in the northwoods (Eagle River, Land O’ Lakes, Jennings, Parts of Lincoln county, etc.) If you live in these areas and follow the weather, you know if this means your garden.

For central Wisconsin, at this time, it looks like a moderate threat of frost in low lying areas – places like Ringle in Marathon county, or the Stevens Point airport area. In the city or more urban areas, I am not too worried about the threat of frost. Low temps will probably stay in the upper 30s in these areas. I have planted some basil in pots and I plan to plant some tomatoes in pots this week (in the city), because I feel the threat of frost is quite low (in the city). I have planted some pepper and chard SEEDS in my country garden, but I HAVE NOT put pepper, melon, or tomato PLANTS in my country garden yet. I am holding off to see whether the threat of frost (for Memorial Day weekend) will materialize or become more significant. I hope this helps in your garden and planting planning for the next week or so!

(Supplemental info: cranberry farmers – it goes without saying, get ready for frost)

Posted under forecast, Freeze, Seasonal Items, Spring

After the cool spring we’ve had, I’m sure a lot of you are hoping for a warm and sunny May around Wisconsin.  The current 30 day outlook for May from the Climate Prediction Center indicates it may be a near normal May overall for our region.  They actually indicate a zone of potentially colder than normal temperatures from North Dakota through northern Minnesota into far western Upper Michigan.  I suspect they are thinking chilly conditions there because much of that area still has a healthy snow pack on the ground.  Even when the snow melts, the ground will be wet and cold for a week or two.  This could help hold temperatures down a bit.  Otherwise warmer than normal conditions look probable across much of the western U.S. down through the Southern Plains.

As far as precipitation goes, the CPC is projecting most of the country to have equal chances of above, below, and normal precipitation.  This is basically saying there is no reason to believe it won’t be fairly close to normal precipitation.  They have pointed out a trend toward drier than normal conditions from Missouri up through Michigan and Ohio.  Also they suggest it could be drier than normal in the Pacific Northwest.

WHAT ARE TYPICAL MAY CONDITIONS FOR THE WAUSAU AREA?

The average high temperatures in Wausau range from the low 60s in early May to the low 70s in late May.  The average low temperatures in Wausau vary from around 40 at the start of May to near 50 by the end of the month.  The all-time hottest May temperature in Wausau is 104 degrees, set on May 31st, 1934.  The all-time lowest May temperature in Wausau is 20 degrees set on May 4th, 1907 and May 9th, 1947.  Normal rainfall for May in the Wausau area is 3.48″.    However we picked up 3.05″ of rain in just one day (June 16th, 1992).  The heaviest one day snowfall for Wausau in May is 5.5″ from May 2nd, 1935.

Posted under CPC Outlook, forecast

Many of you are probably hoping for big things from April weather to make up for the cold and snowy March.  Well it certainly will be warmer than March.  In fact the Climate Prediction Center indicates about the southeast half of the nation could have above normal temperatures in April.  This covers an area from Arizona to parts of Wisconsin and points east and south.  The greatest probability of being warmer than normal is in the New Mexico-Texas area and from Michigan to England.  The CPC predicts increased odds of colder than normal weather from California north into Oregon, Washington, and stretching into Idaho and Montana.

As far as April precipitation goes, the CPC is forecasting increased chances of above normal precipitation from the Dakotas through the Ohio Valley.  The greatest chances of being wet are right across Wisconsin and Michigan.  Meanwhile it is projected to be drier than normal in about the southwest third of the country.  Also areas right along the Gulf Coast extending up into the mid-Atlantic region could also be on the dry side.

As always, it will be interesting to see if this pans out.  My personal opinion is that there is a chance we end up a bit colder than normal, primarily because there is such a deep expansive snow pack to melt yet across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  This could limit heating in the first two weeks of the month for our area.  So when we have warm spells that could have produced temperatures in the 60s if the ground was bare, we will likely be stuck with 40s to near 50 instead.

Posted under CPC Outlook, forecast

We are rapidly approaching the Winter Solstice.  It happens this time around on Friday, December 21st at 5:12 a.m. CST.  This is when the sun will be lowest in the sky of the entire year in the Northern Hemisphere.  It’s only fitting we have snow in the forecast as we approach this event I suppose.  Through Monday, the Wausau area has picked up 5.4″ of snow in December.  Of course most of that melted this past weekend.  We have some work to do to get up to our normal for December which is almost 14″.  It is very possible if the big storm tracks the right way Wednesday night and Thursday that we will be pushed up to or even above our monthly average snowfall.  Central Wisconsin won’t be the only area dealing with this pre-winter solstice snowstorm.  In fact as you see from the map below, winter storm watches and even some blizzard watches were issued from the National Weather Service all the way from Colorado clear up into Michigan.  Clearly there will be widespread travel disruptions through the center of the nation, even in areas outside of the official watches.

One aspect of this storm that will be different than the storm that moved through here on the 9th of December is the fact that we will see a lot more wind this time.  There will be a fairly tight pressure gradient around the low pressure system as it deepense and pushes northeast up into southern Lake Michigan by midday Thursday.  On the model projection below, the pressure lines or isobars, are the black circles surrounding the L on the map.  The tighter they are packed, the stronger the winds generally area.  It appears we will we will have northeast to north winds early Thursday around 20 mph, becoming NW at 20 to 30 mph for the afternoon and evening.  This will create low visibilities to one-quarter mile or less in the heavier snow bands.  In addition drifting snow could be rather substantial in rural open areas.  I suspect some 2 to 3 foot snow drifts will build up by Thursday afternoon.  This of course will make traveling even more treacherous than the last storm did.  Please montior TV-9 newscasts throughout the day along with our website, waow.com for complete storm information as it draws closer.

Model projection for noon Thursday. Solid black lines are isobars or “pressure lines”.

Posted under forecast, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, snow, Winter Weather

VIDEO HERE: http://www.waow.com/story/20358716/2012/12/16/what-are-our-chances-for-a-white-christmas

Saturday’s combination of rain and warm temperatures ate up much of Central Wisconsin’s snow base this weekend.  And with fewer than 10 days until Christmas, the possibility of the region missing a so-called “white” Christmas has come top of mind for many looking forward to the holiday.

A Christmas is considered “white” when there is at least 1″ of snow on the ground on Dec. 25th.  And if nothing were to change in the weather between now and the holiday, this would be a “green” Christmas, as most of the Wausau metroplex has lost it’s snow base.

Northern Wisconsin is part of a few areas of the United States where “white” Christmases are considered the norm.  According to the National Weather Service, points north of Wausau historically see an inch of snow on the ground on Dec. 25th between 75 and 90% of the time, with the chances increasing closer to the border with upper Michigan.

Snow lovers and “white” Christmas proponents will want to pay close attention to the forecast this week.  The forecast models are advertising the potential for an organized storm system to develop over the southwestern United States, strengthen as it moves over the Plains, and become a large winter storm by the time it reaches the North American Great Lakes.

Of important note to Wisconsin is that the current projections place the track of the storm’s center moving south of the state.  That course would provide moisture, but combine it with colder air from Canada resulting in snow over much of Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa.  Warmer air would be contained south of the storm’s center of circulation giving rain to Indiana and Ohio.

Potential setup for Thursday

Forecasts change and systems don’t always come together as expected.  But should this system come to fruition, any snow Wisconsin picks up would likely last through Christmas.  Temperatures on the western side of the system are expected to bring daytime highs on Friday and Saturday in the 20s.

Stay up on the latest forecast projections as we get closer to Christmas with the Storm Track 9 weather team, Newsline 9 and waow.com.

Posted under forecast, Nature, Science, Seasonal Items, snow, Weather History, Weather NEws

It’s always fun to think back to what kind of weather we’ve had on important landmark days like Thanksgiving. You can probably remember the time you had a very snow drive to Grandma’s house on Turkey Day. Or maybe you remember playing a rousing football game after a Thanksgiving meal in sunshine and 55 degrees. As it turns out, in the past 80 years, the Wausau area has had at least a trace of snowfall on Thanksgiving about 44% of the time.

Below you will see how the weather turned out over for the last 10 Thanksgiving Days in Wausau.

Year      High Temp      Precipitation

2011        51                       none

2010       33                      trace snow

2009       40                      trace snow

2008       35                       trace snow

2007        31                     trace snow

2006       55                      none

2005       16                      trace snow

2004       32                     .40” snow

2003       36                    .20” snow

Below are some additional weather statistics for various Wisconsin cities as put together by the National Weather Service in Green Bay.

Thanksgiving Day Weather Statistics

Green Bay

44% of Thanksgivings in Green Bay experienced at least a trace of snowfall (since 1886).

Appleton

35% of Thanksgivings in Appleton experienced at least a trace of snowfall (since 1901).

Wausau

44% of Thanksgivings in Wausau experienced at least a trace of snowfall (since 1933).

Rhinelander

43% of Thanksgivings in Rhinelander experienced at least a trace of snowfall (since 1908).

Posted under forecast, Seasonal Items, Travel, Weather History

This past summer ocean and atmospheric experts were projecting a weak to moderate El Nino would form in the Tropical Pacific Ocean by early this winter.  However the latest data and predictions say that should not be the case.  The water temperatures in that region have stayed pretty close to normal and the models project it to basically stay that way or perhaps go to weak El Nino conditions this winter. 

When a moderate or strong El Nino is in place there is a strong connection to a warmer and drier than normal winter here in Wisconsin and through the Upper Midwest to Northern Plains region.   Without it’s influence it becomes a lot more difficult to predict months in advance what the winter might hold.  Other climate factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and where a persistent snow cover sets us across North America will have more bearing.  This factors are not predictable beyond about 2 weeks.

Speaking of snow cover, the latest analysis from NOAA on November 14th showed snow covering the ground over much of Canada as well as the Central and Northern Rockies and mountainous areas of the Pacific Northwest.  Also a lobe of snow protruded east as far as northwest Minnesota.  It looks like the heaviest snow cover, up to two feet, was restricted to the higher eleveations out west.  For some reason their analysis showed an inch or so on the ground over much of Wisconsin, which is false.  With a warmer and mainly dry pattern expected in much of the country the next several days, I suspect the snow cover boundaries will shrink leading up to Thanksgiving.

Posted under ENSO Update, forecast, snow, Winter Weather

One thing that jumps out at me this time of the year is the fact that low pressure systems start getting large and stronger.   The cloud and rain shields with them often stretch over 1000 miles as the jet streams get more intense allowing for huge circulations.  A case in point is the current system moving through.  It will be producing a nice soaking rain all the way from the Gulf of Mexico north into Canada. 

The center of the low pressure Wednesday evening was over northwest Minnesota.  On the surface map from 4 p.m. Wednesday below you’ll notice how the wind barbs converge toward the center of the low north of Bemidji. 

There was a long cold front arcing southeast from the low pressure down into Wisconsin and all the way down the Mississippi River Valley.  Another feature of autumn storms is often a big temperature contrast.  Readings were in the 70s in Michigan, but only in the 30s and 40s in North Dakota behind the low pressure.

One large band of rain and thunderstorms was forming ahead of the cold front and sweeping northeast up from Missouri and Illinois into Wisconsin.  This will be the band that focuses moderate rain over the eastern half of Wisconsin Wednesday night.  As you’ll notice from the rainfall projection below, the heaviest is expected to fall east of a line from Eagle River to Clintonville, down to Milwaukee with 1.0″+ amounts possible.  Then there is a relative dry slot curling up from Kansas to much of Minnesota to far western Wisconsin.  Finally heavy moisture is wrapping around the northwest side of the low pressure and that could soak North Dakota and northwest Minnesota with close to 1.0″ of rain as well.  The pattern forms the class “comma” shaped storm we normally see numerous times in the fall through spring around here.

Don’t expect this storm to move away in a hurry as it will be removed from the main steering currents for about 36 hours.   It will sit and swirl across Wisconsin basically through Friday night before slowly pushing eastward.  I guess when the storms get this big they can move just as slow as they want.  While the dreary skies won’t be the greatest to look at, the conditions causing them is always interesting to watch come together.  Until next time, hope you enjoy yourself!

Posted under Fall, forecast, Storms

It’s always amazing too me when I look at the weather maps and see huge weather contrasts over short distances.  For example Wednesday afternoon, it was 80 and sunny in Sioux Falls, SD but up in North Dakota is was pouring rain and cold with temperatures in the mid 30s.   This dynamic system has the potential to dump a decent very early season snow on North Dakota and northwest Minnesota through Thursday night.  As you can see from the image below there is a Winter Storm Warning in effect for a good size area around Grand Forks and Thief River Falls with a Winter Weather Advisory surrounding that all the way from Ely, MN clear out to the North Dakota border with Montana. 

Winter Storm Warning in pink, Winter Weather Advisory in purple.

The warning area could receive up to 6″ of wet, heavy snow with about 2 to 5″  in the advisory area.  There will also be 30 mph winds causing low visibility in blowing and drifting snow.  So it will be quite the travel hazard especially for so early in October.  This wouldn’t be quite such a shock if it were the end of the month or the start of November.

 Once the storm center pushes into Canada, cold northwest winds will blow over the relatively warm waters of Lake Superior.  This should generate some lake effect snow in western and northern Upper Michigan as well as parts of Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, and Vilas Counties of Wisconsin Friday afternoon into Saturday.  It is still too early too tell how much may accumulate, but a few  inches is certainly not out of the question.  It is remarkable how much the weather can change in just a few days time around our part of the country! Snow lovers, I guess this one is for you.  It should get you at least a bit  excited and prime the pump for the real snow season in a few months.

Posted under forecast, Storms, Travel, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

If you plan on heading over to Green Bay Thursday for the big Bears-Packers match-up you won’t want to be wearing shorts and t-shirts.  There is definitely going to be a fall-like chill in the air.  Now if you plan to get there really early, like midday, to do some tailgating or sight-seeing you may want to have an umbrella handy.  A band of light rain will likely still be over eastern and southern Wisconsin up through the early afternoon before gradually pushing away.  In the Green Bay area it probably will mostly be done by 2 p.m. at the latest, although we can’t rule out some sprinkles or a little drizzle lingering up through 4 or 5 p.m.  Total rain amounts from the system shouldn’t be more than a few tenths of an inch.  Thus I don’t think it will have any significant impact on the turf conditions.

Otherwise the high temperature Thursday in Green Bay is only projected to be in the lower to mid 60s at best.  By kickoff it will probably be down to the upper 50s and by the 4th quarter it could be in the low 50s.  Skies may be mostly cloudy in the hours leading up to the game, but should gradually clear off during the game.  Winds won’t be a huge factor, generally from the west to northwest around 5 mph.  I would say Thursday evening will be more of what you would expect temperature wise for an early October game than mid-September.

For the players it should be a rather comfortable game.  Do you remember that Packers-Bears game several years ago down in Chicago.  I believe it was around Halloween?  Yeah, the one where it was about 35 degrees with a pouring icy rain and 40 mph winds?  I’ve heard comments from players and media about how that was just about the worst possible conditions to play in.   I believe it, at least if it was snowy and cold it wouldn’t instantly soak through your uniform.  And of course strong winds make the throwing and kicking game really tough.

Well, go get ‘em Packers!  Have a safe and enjoyable trip for all of you lucky enough to be going to the game as well!

Posted under forecast, Recreation & Sports, Travel