Just a quick post this morning about the tornado devastation in Oklahoma. It reminds me of the discussion of SuperStorm Sandy. Check out this past post about SuperStorm risks, and this one about hardening infrastructure against violent storms. The cities in Oklahoma that were struck by the tornado could have used buried power lines. Stronger houses or more underground storm shelters would be beneficial. Maybe it is time to start considering underground shelters or large “storm rooms” for big public buildings like schools, factories, and churches. These are all great ideas, of course, but they all cost money. It is much cheaper to live in a trailer home even though the risk of dying in a severe weather event – in tornado alley no less – is much much greater. I am happy to see WPS is at least testing buried power cables in the Northwoods. I hope the test proves some benefit for buried cables, as then “downed” power lines would be one less thing to worry about in a severe weather situation.

UPDATE: Over the weekend I warned people about an upcoming threat of frost. At that point, it looked as if the highest threat of frost would be Saturday and Sunday morning. Now the main threat has shifted to Friday morning with only a minor threat of frost well to the northeast of Marathon county on Saturday morning. On Friday morning it is looking more likely that there will be a light frost across rural and low-lying areas of central Wisconsin. I am now forecasting a low of 35 even in the city. The Northwoods will have the highest chance of frost with some spots possibly seeing low temps in the upper 20s. I have NOT yet planted my peppers, melons, or tomatoes in the ground in my country garden and I will hold off on potting some tomatoes as well, until after Friday. I already have six frost sensitive plants in pots that I will have to (maybe) cover or move indoors Thursday night. I don’t need anymore to worry about. Hopefully this will be the last significant frost threat of the season. I plan on putting more plants in the ground this weekend.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Freeze, Gardening, Seasonal Items, Storms, Tornadoes

This post is for all the gardeners and farmers out there who are at the cusp of planting frost-sensitive plants such as corn, tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, melons, etc… A good rule of thumb is to wait until after Memorial Day weekend. If there is frost after that point, there is nothing you can do except cover your plants. You can’t plant later into June, waiting for that last threat of frost to pass (which happens some years) because the growing season is not long enough around these parts.

So what does it look like this year? It looks like there will be a threat of frost this upcoming weekend – Memorial Day weekend. Particularly on Saturday and Sunday morning. How much of a threat? It looks like frost is highly likely in some of the traditional cold spots, such as low lying areas in the northwoods (Eagle River, Land O’ Lakes, Jennings, Parts of Lincoln county, etc.) If you live in these areas and follow the weather, you know if this means your garden.

For central Wisconsin, at this time, it looks like a moderate threat of frost in low lying areas – places like Ringle in Marathon county, or the Stevens Point airport area. In the city or more urban areas, I am not too worried about the threat of frost. Low temps will probably stay in the upper 30s in these areas. I have planted some basil in pots and I plan to plant some tomatoes in pots this week (in the city), because I feel the threat of frost is quite low (in the city). I have planted some pepper and chard SEEDS in my country garden, but I HAVE NOT put pepper, melon, or tomato PLANTS in my country garden yet. I am holding off to see whether the threat of frost (for Memorial Day weekend) will materialize or become more significant. I hope this helps in your garden and planting planning for the next week or so!

(Supplemental info: cranberry farmers – it goes without saying, get ready for frost)

Posted under forecast, Freeze, Seasonal Items, Spring

The pattern of extreme changes continues this spring.  Perhaps you heard about the huge ice shoves this past weekend that pushed mega piles of ice off Lake Mille Lacs in Minnesota.  Homes and property on the southeast shore were damaged heavily as 35 mph northwesterly winds piled the floating up onto shore like a moving glacier.   You can watch the ice in action from the following link.  http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/ice-needle-shoves-surges-terrorize-great-lakes/12337031

Also a lake west of Winnipeg in Manitoba piled up ice 27 feet deep into some homes.  That is one of the weirdest natural disasters I can think of.  The wind that produced the ice pile ups was part of a deep trough of low pressure north of Lake Superior which drove the very chilly weather down into Wisconsin this past weekend.  Of course we had several record low temperatures Sunday night across Wisconsin.    The cold air is moving east.  In fact frost and freeze advisories were posted Monday night from portions of North Carolina northward to Maine.

Meanwhile red flag warnings have been posted into Tuesday in an area from Montana Iowa and Minnesota.  An intense burst of heat that originated in the Desert Southwest of the U.S. is shooting northeast across the country.  Highs could be close to 100 around Omaha, NE with 90s into southern Minnesota.  This coupled with low humidity, gusty winds, sunshine, and dry fuels will make for dangerous fire conditions.  Burning is prohibited and residents are asked to avoid any activities that could lead to sparks.

Red Flag Warnings are Pink. Frost and Freeze Warnings in Eastern U.S. in blue.

Just maybe the weather patterns will settle into something closer to normal over the next few weeks.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out.  The cold air intrusions have to run out sooner or later.  By the way we are getting to the point where gardeners wonder if we have seen the last frost for the season.  The average last frost date across Wisconsin varies from late April near Lake Michigan to early June in some northern areas.  So we are certainly getting a little safer from the cold with each passing day.

Posted under Fire, Freeze, Gardening, Heat, Natural Disasters, Records, Seasonal Items, Spring

Even though the weather we have experienced since late January is unusual because of the persistent cold and getting even colder (than normal) as time goes by, we still have not broken any records for snow or cold. The length of time that we have had snowcover in Wausau is highly unusual, that is for sure, but the snow amounts with each storm have not been all tha big. The real difference with this Spring and other Springs where we might have seen some snow in April or even May, is that the snow is sticking around. In 2008 we had a few inches of snow between April 8th and April 12th, but it melted within a couple days and we were back to warmer-than-normal temps. This year, there is still no sign of an extended warm-up. The best we will do is get close to 50 today and tomorrow, which is better than nothing.

So is there any record that is about to go down? The most interesting record would be for the coldest month of April. The old record for coldest April in Wausau is 34.0 (average temp) set in 1950. So far this year our average temp is 32.5, so we are on pace to break the record. However, I think we will have enough 40 and 50 degree high temps for the rest of the month to ensure that we don’t end up breaking the all time record. We might end up in the top ten though.

What about snow? We are now up to 75.4 inches of snow for the season. The record is a little over 103 inches, so we have a ways to go on that one. If we get 30 inches of snow yet before Summer arrives, I would be amazed. There is some potential for snow later this week, but it looks like a few inches at the max. The good thing about all the snow is that it should help alleviate the drought. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows most of the state in moderate to severe drought, which is odd, since our precipitation total since January 1st is 7.66 inches, which is a whopping 2.81 inches above normal. I talked to the folks at the Drought Monitor and they said they did not want to remove the drought classifications just yet because they wanted to see how dry the soil was once it thawed. I think it will have a good deal of moisture.

Many people are asking if the cool Spring means a cool Summer as well. It is not necessarily the case that this would happen, although the “hot” March last year was followed by a hot Summer. What we can say for now is that temps will continue to remain below normal for the next week or two, which will almost being us to May. This does not mean it is going to be bitterly cold, just that we are more likely to have high temps in the 40s and 50s, instead of the 50s and 60s. Sometimes the El Nino/La Nina trend can give a clue what might happen a few months into the future, but right now the surface waters in the central Pacific ocean are about neutral and it is expected to stay that way through the early Summer, so neither El Nino or La Nina will be affecting us. Check the latest ENSO discussion here.

Have a fine Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update, Freeze, Records, Winter Weather

Before going into a discussion about heat, drought, and ice, I wanted to first highlight once again how the StormTrack9 weather blog is a place for insight and information long before it reaches a wider audience. Late last year I recapped the status of Peak Oil theory. In the blog entry I linked to the latest night-time image of the earth – a cool zoom-able image. I noted what looked like a new huge city in western North Dakota. I mentioned that it was not a city but the sign of all the oil and gas production occurring in the Bakken shale. If you were reading the weather blog, you were a month and a half ahead of Newscientist writers.  Keep reading the weather blog. Stay ahead of the crowd.

_______________________________________________________

Drought Monitor For Wisconsin

Heat and drought were big stories last year and unfortunately one of the stories continues. Mass media might have forgotten about how dry some parts of the country remain, but I haven’t. Here at StormTrack9 we keep a close eye on the Drought Monitor. If my eyes are not deceiving me, then we still have a problem in much of the country.  Yes, there have been some bouts of significant precipitation in drought-stricken areas, but not enough to budge the “drought” needle across the mid section of the country or in the southeast. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor still indicates extreme to exceptional drought in many areas. The biggest improvement since last Summer has occurred in parts of the Ohio valley in big food-growing states such as Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio.  As I have mentioned before, if we have another widespread drought this growing season, you will probably be blown away by apocalyptic media coverage, even though historically, we have had multi-year droughts and even multi-decade droughts many times on this continent through the centuries.

Here in Wisconsin, the drought situation has not changed too much in the last month or two, which is a bit surprising. We had above normal precipitation (in Wausau) in December and now again in January (check Tony’s January recap). This should start to show up in the Drought Monitor. One thing about the heavier snow that makes me happy is that we will have some Spring melt-off that should help lake and river levels somewhat. Deeper snow usually means a good start to the growing season too, based on my experience.

Ice cover in the Great Lakes

The other half of the big weather story last year – the heat - might be gone but its effects are still being felt. Take a look at the ice coverage map of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. Even though we have had some fairly extreme cold over the last couple of weeks, the ice cover is not too extensive. Fast (solid) ice can only be found in the bays. The heat from last Summer produced lake temperatures well above normal and that heat is slow to leave. With some colder weather now in the forecast for the next few days, I suspect we will have more ice floating around on the Great Lakes but most likely remaining below normal for the season. I think we saw some of the heat effects on the smaller lakes around here in NorthCentral Wisconsin as well. Even after we had enough ice on the lakes to put fishing shacks out, the ice was not firm enough to hold up during a couple of the mild spells. A handful of shacks fell through. I don’t think I can recall as many instances of vehicles and shacks falling through the ice as this year. During most years, once the ice is thick enough to drive on, it is good for the rest of the Winter. This was not the case this year.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Freeze, Heat, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

The National Weather Service will have a freeze watch in effect for much of the region on Saturday night.  Temperatures on Saturday night and Sunday morning could dip into the 20’s or 30’s.  This will put an end to the growing season in many places that have not yet seen frost. 

A Freeze Watch is issued when below freezing temperatures are possible.

So far most of Wisconsin, Iowa, southern Minnesota, eastern South Dakota and northeastern Nebraskahave freeze watches in place for Saturday night. 

The National Weather Service in Green Bay announced Friday it will no longer be issuing freeze and frost advisories after this weekend for the northern third of the state.  That’s because the Northwoods has already experienced several freezes. 

For a look at the nationwide weather hazards map (freeze watches are bright navy blue) follow this link: http://www.weather.gov/.

Posted under Environment, Fall, Freeze, Nature, Seasonal Items, Weather NEws

Something happened this morning that hasn’t happened all year long (and it is hard to remember the last time it happened) – we set some new record low temps.

Here are the ones we know for sure:

Merrill 27

Rhinelander 28

Stevens Point 28

Antigo 29

Wausau is a bit more of a question mark at this point. It is likely that the temperature dropped to 31 or 30 sometime shortly after midnight. The problem is that the ASOS weather station at the airport was having trouble communicating. The temperature was most likely logged internally and the National Weather Service will download that information at a later time – hopefully today! The old record in Wausau was 31 set back in 1902. So if we tied or broke that record it would be breaking a record that has held for 110 years! The only other record that might fall yet during this cool spell is the snowfall record on Saturday. I know what you are thinking – impossible. The snowfall record in Wausau on the 22nd is a trace. Right now it looks like there will be some light showers in the area on Saturday and temps will be cool. With temps in the upper 30s to low 40s in the morning and then again dropping to that level in the evening, there is at least a slight chance of some sleet or a couple flakes of snow to mix in with any raindrops – and that is all it takes for a “trace” of snow. There was some sleet and snow reported in Vilas county yesterday morning, so it is not that far out of the realm of possibility.

Of course, now that we have had our first official widespread frost of the season, we can now have an official Indian Summer. Just as a reminder, go back and check our official criteria for Indian Summer.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Freeze

Because of the very short amount of time I have to explain the weather situation on the TV side of things, I wasn’t able to talk very much about the threat of frost this week, so I will do it here in the blog (and you can always check out the weather show for a longer video of the weather for the week, it is updated every morning around 9am and is on the website through mid afternoon).

The biggest thing you need to know is that I am bringing my tropical plants indoors this week. It is not so much the threat of frost that is a problem (in the city anyway) but it is quite a cool trend developing this week and it is time to move those types of plants inside. As far as the chance of frost goes, there will be a slight chance of frost tonight into Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There should be enough wind and cloud cover on both of these nights to keep most areas above freezing, but there could be pockets of light frost, especially in typical cold spots. The highest chance of frost  – even for the city – will be Saturday night into Sunday morning. During this time frame the skies will be more clear and the winds will be lighter. In any case, you should be taking some precautions if you have any valuable plants or crops outside.

________________________________

You sometimes get more detail on on the forecast here in the blog but you will also find some cutting edge topics from time to time. Recently I blogged about the possible demise of the car and the roadblocks to having more train traffic in the U.S. and now I see WIRED is talking about tearing up freeways as well. While tearing up some of the freeways will face, often illogical, stiff opposition (because of vested interests and sunk costs) driver-less cars probably will not. At first thought, many people will be scared of computer controlled cars, but as the reporter in this story found out, there can be more freedom in not having to drive the car. I think that is what most people will find out – driving is a chore. Not many of us ride an open road with beautiful scenery. Most of us are in traffic, surrounded by the sprawling urban environment of streets, parking lots, strip malls and what-not. There is not much enjoyment in “driving” for most people. They will gladly hand the controls over. They will also likely be much safer - if computer controlled airplanes and trains of the past couple decades are any guide.

Also with self-driving cars we have a semi-private solution to the sprawling environmental mess that is much of the U.S. landscape. It is very hard to build out train infrastructure. Changing from highways to trains would necessitate gargantuan government control of the entire process. With self-driving cars, we would essentially have mini-trains running on cement tracks. With more people efficiently riding in packs (as discussed in the article) or on autonomous multi-passenger vehicles, maybe there would be less need to build bigger and bigger freeways. Maybe we could cut back some. What a novel thought.

Have a fine Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Freeze, Technology

Crisp nights, rustling dry leaves, the smell of corn and goldenrod fill the nostrils…it can only mean that we are weaving through September.  September is of course the month summer yields to Autumn gradually.  Our daylight time shrinks by 90 minutes.  As the sun gets lower in the sky our average temperatures drop by about 10 degrees throughout the month.  The normal high starts out around 74 on September 1st in the Wausau area but tumbles to 64 degrees by the last day.  This isn’t to say that it can’t get very warm or even hot once in awhile.  In fact on September 10th, 1931 we had our hottest September day on record in Wausau with a sizzling 99 degrees reported. 

The warmest mean temperature for the month occurred in 1908 in Wausau with 65.8 degrees.  The normal monthly mean is 58.5 degrees.  The coolest mean September temperature in Wausau happened in 1918 coming in at 51.3 degrees.  The coldest low temperature in the books for Wausau in this particular month is 18 degrees, registered on September 30th, 1899.

It is common to have some frost show up throughout the month in various parts of the state.  The median date of the first 32 degree temperature is September 20th  – 26th  in much of north central Wisconsin.  In a strip from Wausau to Stevens Point it is September 27th – October 3rd according to the State Climatology Office.  Meanwhile areas around Price, Vilas, Oneida, Forest, Florence, and parts of Lincoln and Langlade Counties often have frost show up earlier in September.  Also cranberry bogs around Wood, Jackson, and Monroe Counties also tend to see 32 degree temperatures several weeks sooner on those clear, calm nights.

The Wausau area’s wettest September belongs to 1986 when 9.79″ of rain fell.   Just a few years ago it was pretty wet as well.  In September 2010 we had 8.41″ of rain in Wausau, which is good for 5th wettest on record.  On the other end of the spectrum, the driest September on record is from 2009 when just 0.23″ of rain coated the area.   More recently, 2008 featured the 8th driest September in Wausau as only 1.33″ of rain fell.

Some of you will cringe at just the mention of snow this early, however it is interesting to note that the most snow on record in Wausau came in 1942 when 2.0″ accumulated.  We had a trace of snow as recently as 1995 in Wausau.

Have a great month!

Posted under Fall, Freeze, Monthly Recap, Seasonal Items

On this first full day of summer I noticed that the record low for Wausau is 36 degrees set back on June 21st, 1992.  That was a bad day for agriculture and gardens in Wisconsin and other parts of the Upper Midwest.  Many areas had a pretty hard frost which severely hurt crops.  The field corn was a good eighteen inches high by then.  I still to this day remember looking out into our corn field in the late morning and seeing the top 4 or five leaves of the corn plants blackened and shriveling.  There was even an odd aroma in the air that the damaged plants were giving off.  According to the USDA, the corn crop suffered a 30 to 40% yield reduction that season.  A good chunk of that likely came from that highly unusual late season frost. 

Of course many other plants were hurt as well.  They included tomatoes, peppers, flowers, pumpkin, watermelons, and all sorts of vine crops that can’t tolerate cold air.  As is turns out there was scattered frost the night before into the morning of June 20th as well.  That morning, the Wausau Airport had 37 for a low temperature.  On the 21st, the low was 36 degrees, but many rural locations were more in the 30 to 32 degree range.  Cranberry bogs were down into the mid 20s.

In fact that whole month was pretty cool with highs reaching only the 60s on ten days while highs stayed in the 50s on two days!  The average temperature for the month was about 3 degrees colder than normal.  Just for comparison, we’ve only had two days so far in June 2012 where highs stayed in the 60s and that was right at 69.  Well I hope this type of late season disastrous frost remains a distant memory and we don’t have to repeat it anytime soon.

Posted under Ag Weather, Freeze, Records