The pattern of extreme changes continues this spring.  Perhaps you heard about the huge ice shoves this past weekend that pushed mega piles of ice off Lake Mille Lacs in Minnesota.  Homes and property on the southeast shore were damaged heavily as 35 mph northwesterly winds piled the floating up onto shore like a moving glacier.   You can watch the ice in action from the following link.  http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/ice-needle-shoves-surges-terrorize-great-lakes/12337031

Also a lake west of Winnipeg in Manitoba piled up ice 27 feet deep into some homes.  That is one of the weirdest natural disasters I can think of.  The wind that produced the ice pile ups was part of a deep trough of low pressure north of Lake Superior which drove the very chilly weather down into Wisconsin this past weekend.  Of course we had several record low temperatures Sunday night across Wisconsin.    The cold air is moving east.  In fact frost and freeze advisories were posted Monday night from portions of North Carolina northward to Maine.

Meanwhile red flag warnings have been posted into Tuesday in an area from Montana Iowa and Minnesota.  An intense burst of heat that originated in the Desert Southwest of the U.S. is shooting northeast across the country.  Highs could be close to 100 around Omaha, NE with 90s into southern Minnesota.  This coupled with low humidity, gusty winds, sunshine, and dry fuels will make for dangerous fire conditions.  Burning is prohibited and residents are asked to avoid any activities that could lead to sparks.

Red Flag Warnings are Pink. Frost and Freeze Warnings in Eastern U.S. in blue.

Just maybe the weather patterns will settle into something closer to normal over the next few weeks.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out.  The cold air intrusions have to run out sooner or later.  By the way we are getting to the point where gardeners wonder if we have seen the last frost for the season.  The average last frost date across Wisconsin varies from late April near Lake Michigan to early June in some northern areas.  So we are certainly getting a little safer from the cold with each passing day.

Posted under Fire, Freeze, Gardening, Heat, Natural Disasters, Records, Seasonal Items, Spring

For many decades,  weather record books have published 136 degrees F  (58 C) as the highest temperature observed in a normal setting on the planet.  The long standing world hottest temperature record of 136 degrees F from El Azizia, Libya from September 13, 1922 is no more.  A panel from the World Meteorological Organization gave the record a thorough review recently and came to the conclusion that the reading was not valid because of the following:

• potentially flawed thermometer
• probable new and inexperienced observer at the time of the observation
• unrepresentative micro-climate of the observation site
• poor continuity of the extreme to other temperature records
• poor comparison to subsequent temperature values recorded at the site

The thermometer in use at that site was a Bellani-Six thermometer.  It contains both alcohol and mercury, in differing parts of the device along with pivoting metal arms to record the low and high temperatures.  A known flaw of this type of thermometer is that the alcohol can wets the glass and can pass easily between the glass and the mercury, resulting in bad readings.  Also, to an inexperienced observer, it is plausible that they wouldn’t have know which end of the recording pin marks the maximum temperature.  Another potential source of error comes from the log on which the observer wrote the temperature data.  Starting on September 11, 1922, the maximum temperature readings increased dramatically while the minimums stayed within their expected range.  Some of the numbers were also written in the wrong columns on the sheet which points to more uncertainty in the record.  Finally, the thermometer at El Azizia was placed over a heavily tarred concrete pad within a small military fort.  The experts at WMO believe the tarred concrete likely accentuated the high temperature beyond the normal for a desert environment.  Once the instrument shelter was relocated in 1927, only two other times did the temperature ever rise above 50 degrees C, in June of 1928 and August of 1941.  No reading above 46 C was recorded in September in the 48 year history of the new site.

After a bunch of hot debate over a hot number, these all seem like pretty good reasons when taken in total to invalidate the old record high temperature.  So the new official record high Earth surface temperature is 134 degrees F (56.7 C) at Greenland Ranch (Death Valley), CA from July 10, 1913.  The new African temperature extreme is now 131 F (55 C) from Kebili, Tunisia on July 7, 1931.  There you have it.  Either way you look at it, 130 + degrees F is super hot in my book.  I hope I never have to be in that.

Posted under Heat, Records

Before going into a discussion about heat, drought, and ice, I wanted to first highlight once again how the StormTrack9 weather blog is a place for insight and information long before it reaches a wider audience. Late last year I recapped the status of Peak Oil theory. In the blog entry I linked to the latest night-time image of the earth – a cool zoom-able image. I noted what looked like a new huge city in western North Dakota. I mentioned that it was not a city but the sign of all the oil and gas production occurring in the Bakken shale. If you were reading the weather blog, you were a month and a half ahead of Newscientist writers.  Keep reading the weather blog. Stay ahead of the crowd.

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Drought Monitor For Wisconsin

Heat and drought were big stories last year and unfortunately one of the stories continues. Mass media might have forgotten about how dry some parts of the country remain, but I haven’t. Here at StormTrack9 we keep a close eye on the Drought Monitor. If my eyes are not deceiving me, then we still have a problem in much of the country.  Yes, there have been some bouts of significant precipitation in drought-stricken areas, but not enough to budge the “drought” needle across the mid section of the country or in the southeast. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor still indicates extreme to exceptional drought in many areas. The biggest improvement since last Summer has occurred in parts of the Ohio valley in big food-growing states such as Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio.  As I have mentioned before, if we have another widespread drought this growing season, you will probably be blown away by apocalyptic media coverage, even though historically, we have had multi-year droughts and even multi-decade droughts many times on this continent through the centuries.

Here in Wisconsin, the drought situation has not changed too much in the last month or two, which is a bit surprising. We had above normal precipitation (in Wausau) in December and now again in January (check Tony’s January recap). This should start to show up in the Drought Monitor. One thing about the heavier snow that makes me happy is that we will have some Spring melt-off that should help lake and river levels somewhat. Deeper snow usually means a good start to the growing season too, based on my experience.

Ice cover in the Great Lakes

The other half of the big weather story last year – the heat - might be gone but its effects are still being felt. Take a look at the ice coverage map of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. Even though we have had some fairly extreme cold over the last couple of weeks, the ice cover is not too extensive. Fast (solid) ice can only be found in the bays. The heat from last Summer produced lake temperatures well above normal and that heat is slow to leave. With some colder weather now in the forecast for the next few days, I suspect we will have more ice floating around on the Great Lakes but most likely remaining below normal for the season. I think we saw some of the heat effects on the smaller lakes around here in NorthCentral Wisconsin as well. Even after we had enough ice on the lakes to put fishing shacks out, the ice was not firm enough to hold up during a couple of the mild spells. A handful of shacks fell through. I don’t think I can recall as many instances of vehicles and shacks falling through the ice as this year. During most years, once the ice is thick enough to drive on, it is good for the rest of the Winter. This was not the case this year.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Freeze, Heat, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

At the intersection of science, technology, and weather that is the heart of this blog, you have to check back fairly often in order to keep your finger on the pulse of change. Ideas and themes that emerge upon the general media scene have often been discussed here days, months, or years in advance. Just last week I was reviewing my recent trip to Orlando and how the city stacks up against others in environmental impact. I mentioned the fact that even if cities in the south, like Orlando, would adopt more environmentally friendly transportation, there is still the problem of air conditioning. Air conditioners run nearly the entire year in most of Florida. They generate a lot of waste heat. This adds to the urban heat island effect. It is somewhat of a positive feedback. The more houses built, the more pavement laid, the more cars driven, the more heat is generated/absorbed and the greater the need for air conditioning, which generates even more waste heat. This waste heat and the urban heat island effect have often been ignored as negligible players in the anthropogenic global warming debate, but not anymore. A recent study has shown that the urban heat island effect can change the weather patterns hundreds of miles away.

What has happened through the years is that large urban areas have developed in significant concentrations in areas such as the Northeast U.S. and much of Europe. This creates a persistent “warm spot” in those regions, warm enough that the jet stream and other wind currents become permanently altered downwind of these areas. If one would run weather and climate models without the cities, the jet stream pattern would look different and weather effects would be different. As I have mentioned in the blog before, we certainly do have an effect on the weather, and as cities grow (if no mitigation of the heat island effect is attempted) our activities will continue to have a bigger impact. I am ok with having an impact, as long as it is well managed. Humans have come to control most aspects of nature on this planet in order to ensure a safer and happier existence. The weather and climate need not be any different.

So what are some of the things cities could do to lessen the heat Island effect? I (and many others) have mentioned painting roofs white in order to reflect more sunlight away from roof-tops. This is an easy, cheap, and simple solution for cities in the southern U.S. There is hardly a reason that any roofs should remain a dark color. In southern cities, having a dark roof is like punching yourself in the face – environmentally speaking.

Another thing that cities could do is reduce soot. This is a problem outside of cities but it is concentrated more in Urban centers – especially outside of the U.S. The soot (particulates) in the atmosphere comes from coal power plants, diesel engines, and burning other hydrocarbon matter (wood, dung, etc.) The problem is worse in China because they burn more coal and many of their plants are old and emit a lot more soot than newer plants in other areas of the world. To get an idea of how bad it is, take a look at the recent pollution in Bejing! Another country that produces a lot of soot is India. There is a constant brown haze over the subcontinent nowadays. This soot/particulate matter is bad for human health of course, but it also enhances AGW – more than most people think. When the soot falls in arctic regions or on glaciers, it causes the snow/ice to melt to a greater degree. Recent studies indicate a significant part of recent climate warming could be due to soot. Cutting the soot/pollution by using different fuels or newer power plants designs would have a big impact on theoretical future climate warming. It is easier than cutting out fossil fuels altogether – which will take a linger time. This is another area where the U.S. is starting to lead the world. By using more natural gas, we produce less of this soot-type pollution. So not only are our carbon emissions falling dramatically, we are mitigating potential future warming by not sending as much soot into the air – all because we use more natural gas. There seems to be a recent popular culture wave trying to stop the practice of “fracking” – a method used to get natural gas out of the earth(which causes small earthquakes in some places). We should stop and consider the benefits of natural gas as well. It is a nice “bridge” fuel that allows us to maintain our standard of living while polluting less – maybe helping our cities to not be so hot in the future. It buys us time while we develop better energy sources.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Heat, Pollution

There is a lot of talk recently about how “extreme” the weather is now, and how it will get so much more “extreme” in the future (even more specualtion here). There are certainly some robust theories as to why this will happen – why the frequency of severe weather events might increase (like all time heat records) - and we should of course be sure to keep our eyes open and do what we can to survive extreme weather events (like burying electrical lines, also see Superstorm Risks). However, we should remember that some unbelievably ”extreme” weather has happened in the past.

There has been much talk about how the desert southwest of the U.S. is going to suffer from more heat and drought in the future. The odds are fairly good that this will happen, not only if the global climate continues to warm, but also for the plain fact that there are millions and millions more people living in, and moving to, the southwest, creating greater stress on the water supply and adding more to the urban heat island effect. However, a “mega-drought” in the southwest should not come as too much of a surprise to blog readers here because I have detailed the climate history of the southwest a couple of times in the past. As new research also shows, multi-year and multi-DECADE droughts were common a few hundred years ago. So there is a fairly good chance we could see some “extreme” stress on rivers such as the Colorado, but it will probably not as extreme as what happened during past mega-droughts. The 20th century might turn out to be an anonymously wet period – and the “extreme” drought might be just “getting back to normal”.

Citicorp Center had to be reinforced in 1978

Even as extreme as Superstorm Sandy appeared, it was known that such a storm was possible decades before, and that infrastructure would be in trouble. La Guardia airport had flooded before and Sandy-type storm surges had been modeled. The Citicorp building was even vulnerable at one point if a “big storm” ever created high winds in New York. Around other coastal areas of the U.S. there have been many periods where stronger hurricanes have struck the coast, well before Katrina entered our collective memory.

One would think receiving 50 inches of rain over just a few days would be pretty extreme as well, but looking at today’s date in weather history we find that it happened in southern California way back in 1969:

On this day in 1969, a spate of heavy rain begins in Southern California that results in a tragic series of landslides and floods that kills nearly 100 people. This was the worst weather-related disaster in California in the 20th century.

Although January typically features relatively high precipitation in Southern California, the first month of 1969 saw an extraordinary amount of rain throughout the region. Mt. Baldy, east of Los Angeles, received more than 50 inches in the nine-day period beginning January 18. By January 26, the Federal Emergency Management Association (FEMA) had declared it a federal disaster area.

The worst part of the remarkable rainfall was that it caused a series of landslides in the hills of Southern California. In Glendora, 1 million cubic meters of rock and mud slid down a hillside, destroying 200 homes and killing dozens of people. Although there was only one fatality, the plight of Mandeville Canyon, north of Sunset Boulevard in L.A.’s Brentwood section, during the disaster was heavily publicized due to the wealth and fame of its residents….read the full story here.

I can’t imagine all of the press and “hyperventilating” that would occur if 50 inches of rain fell in the mountains around Los Angeles in the present day, but it is certainly possible again. The oceans are a bit warmer and that means more moisture will typically be available for Pacific storm slamming into California. By the way, on the topic of landslides, a recent report found that it is a more dangerous “weather event” than most people realize.

We might have different types of extreme weather or more frequent severe weather in the future, but a lot of it has occurred before. Our short memories need a refresher once in a while.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Flooding, Heat, Severe Weather

Here is some news that I think is very similar to the demotion of Pluto to “dwarf planet” status, or finding out that your astronomical sign was not really your astronomical sign. The hottest temperature ever recorded on earth was most likely not the hottest temperature. The temperature that was recorded on this date in El Azizia, Libyia – 136.4 degrees Fahrenheit – was most likely an error. So declares the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). They found 5 different reasons for why the temperature was unlikely as hot as reported, including measurements from other nearby locations at the time, the temperature history of that area, the type of instrument, the official observer qualifications, and the climate of the area. It seems they have some valid reasons to question the reading and they are official arbiters for world weather records, so scrub the 136.4 Libyian record from the textbooks and web pages. The new record for the world hottest temperature is 134 degrees Fahrenheit, set in Death Valley, California back in 1913.

In a somewhat related matter, the Guiness Book of World Records recently acknowledged the hottest manmade temperature - 7.2 trillion degrees Fahrenheit. It occurred at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider at Brookhaven New York, when gold nuclei were smashed together. It is a temperature so hot, with some much energy, that it is hard to comprehend. Does temperature lose it’s meaning when it gets that high, since it is so far out of human experience? It would be interesting to know how they derived the temperature reading. Certainly not with a thermometer.

Have a swell Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Heat, Records

Our local weather of course will be dominated by record heat Thursday.  We could already see that ramping up west of Wisconsin in the Northern Plains Wednesday.  There was a large area of high temperatures above 100 degrees Wednesday afternoon from southern Nebraska straight north to north central North Dakota.  In fact the number were ridiculously high in South Dakota with numerous reports up around 111 degrees F.  You just don’t see a temperature map like that very often in the Northern Plains.  It rather looks like something you would see in the Desert Southwest!   The temperature map below was from 5 p.m. Wednesday.  Thank goodness the dew points were only in the 50s so the heat index readings weren’t any higher than the actual air temperatures.

On a different note, the rain continues to pour down on the Gulf Coast States from Isaac.  Below is an image showing rainfall estimates from the National Weather Service Doppler Radar near New Orleans.  As of 5 p.m. it showed maximum amounts of 15″ in a band between New Orleans and Biloxi, MS.  We have had storm reports from southeast of New Orleans unofficially of 22″ already.  An additional widespread 6 to 12″ of rainfall is likely as the storm slowly moves northwestward into Thursday night. 

You’re probably wondering if the moisture from Isaac will make it into Wisconsin?  It is possible according to some computer models that far southern Wisconsin will get from rain from Isaac right around early Saturday.  But the steering winds aloft will probably then push the main mass of rain over into the Ohio Valley this weekend.  Check out the GFS model projection for Saturday showing substantial rainfall over 1.0″ in Illinois.

Posted under Heat, Hurricanes

A very beneficial rain fell in many parts of the area last night and this morning, and that should help improve the drought situation here in Wisconsin. The official US Drought Monitor map released this week does not show any improvement but last night’s rain was not factored into this week’s report. It will not show up until next week. Many people reported 1 to 2 inches of rain in areas around Clark, Wood, Portage, and Waupaca counties, so these areas stand to gain the most in the official report for next week.

For the rest of the country, the most improvement in the drought was in the east, but in most of those areas, things are not too bad.

Latest Drought Monitor

Where there drought is the worst, in the middle of the nation, it got slightly worse in areal coverage last week, even though there has been some rain in the drought-stricken areas. There are now 8 states with extreme to exceptional drought covering 68% or more of the acreage.

The drought and the heat go hand-in-hand of course, and there isn’t a whole lot one can do about it outside of truly massive irrigation. In order to accomplish such a feat, we would have to rely upon a lot more than reservoirs and well-water (aquifers). It would take massive desalination and piping of ocean water to blunt such a widespread event. And then, one would have to wonder if it would be worth the expense to build such infrastructure when such droughts only occur about once every other decade. If AGW theorists (or even historical drought analysis) are correct and more frequent drought is in the offing in the future, then such geo-engineering is not out of the realm of economic rationale. It is a good thing then that de-salination of ocean water could possibly become much more efficient. As far as geo-engineering goes, it might be a win-win. Lower the ocean levels while at the same time preventing drought and heat waves. Maybe more widespread desalination would head-off regional water wars of the present and future as well. Maybe we could even store some of the excess underground, as is being proposed in Australia.

Another suggestion offered recently was to block out some of the sunshine in areas where a drought is enhancing a heat wave. This would be a small scale version of something I have covered in the blog in the past – which is shading the entire earth from a small percentage of sunshine.

Space Solar Power

Suggestions have been made to fill the upper atmosphere with sulfur dioxide or set-up huge mirrors in space to reflect the light away. These ideas have gotten more air-time now during the recent heat wave. If such an attempt to cool the earth was ever made, I think it would be better to place energy capturing solar panels up there instead. Not to capture energy and beam it back down to earth (which environmentalists will never allow to happen) but to help fuel space exploration.

These are of course some of the bigger ideas on how manipulate a changing climate, of which I support, not because I am extremely worried about AGW, but because I think it is our human destiny to harness the weather and climate. We already manipulate the climate in almost all of our buildings large and small. Speaking of buildings, one of the smaller ideas to change the climate is to paint more roofs white in warmer areas of the world. Although there is no consensus on how well this would work, it at least makes common sense. Also, painting roofs black in very cold climates would help save energy. Even better would be shingles that change color with the seasons which I have blogged about before. Such shingles do exist but are only in the testing phase right now.

Another geo-engineering idea that made some press recently is fertilizing the oceans with iron to sequester more carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. One recent study proved that it works in certain circumstances, but I still wonder about un-anticipated negative side effects. The one idea that doesn’t get too much play, that would have the most immediate effect on pollution and theoretical future AGW, that I have blogged about recently: stop having so many kids!

Have a fine Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Drought, Environment, Heat, Pollution

Image from NOAA

It’s official.  July 2012 will go down not only as the hottest July on record, but as the hottest month ever recorded in U.S. history! 

In a report titled “State of the Climate”, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the average temperature in the U.S. was 77.6 degrees, 3.3 degrees above the average 20th century temperature for July.

According to NOAA statistics, this July was the warmest since the summer of 1936.  That’s when the average temperature in the U.S. was 77.4°F.  That’s also when the Dust Bowl was destroying farms across the American Plains with horrendous weather conditions and disastrous drought.

This year, over half of the United States (63% according to NOAA) is in one form of another of drought.

To give the report a look over for yourself (it’s an interesting read with several graphics depicting the info) follow this link: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/   

Posted under Climate Change, Drought, Environment, Heat, Natural Disasters, Records, Science, Seasonal Items, Weather History, Weather NEws, World Weather

First I have to add a little to Tony’s recap of the rain totals from yesterday. Last night a small area of heavy rain developed over Marathon county and produced a new record rainfall for today (the 19th of July). The rain total after midnight was 1.62 inches. The old record was 1.57 inches, set just last year. That brings the 2 day rain total for Wausau up to 2.07 inches. It was a great amount of rain to soak into the soil and it came without any severe weather. The is the best part about the rainfall. Almost everyone saw at least a little rain and hardly anyone had to deal with high wind, hail, or tornadoes.

The rain will not show up in this week’s U.S. Drought Monitor because it is tabulated using reports up through Tuesday of each week. Because of this, the southern part of the state is still indicated as being in a severe to extreme drought, even though some heavy rain fell in the bad droughts areas yesterday. It would take some more heavy rain off-n-on over the weekend in order to put a short-term dent in the drought classification, which is unlikely, so the drought in the southern half of the state will likely continue for at least a couple more weeks.

Around the rest of the country it is still bad as the hot weather continues. There are some pockets of improvement in the corn belt in the Midwest but it will not get dramatically better in the next few days because the heat will continue in these areas. It looks like the high heat with temps around 100 will continue in the corn belt through Thursday of next week, then we will likely see a more significant cool down late next week that might last through the end of the month. It would be welcome relief if it develops.

Of course many people seek relief from the heat by heading into air conditioned buildings. That is the most guaranteed way to stay cool but isn’t the most environmentally friendly. Using a fan means using less electricity but it isn’t as good, but it is better than nothing. Which is why I was perplexed by a story I read recently stating that fans DO NOT work to keep you cool from the heat. Now, the article headline might have misrepresented the content a bit, but I was still flummoxed as to why someone would steer people away from using fans, especially if they don’t have air conditioning. The science behind the article was a review of the literature which found no proper studies showing that fans keep people cool during heat waves. Just because there have been no studies about the issue, doesn’t mean it fans are useless. This is where common sense and basic physics triumphs over “studies”.

You would be a fool to not use a fan on a hot day. Fans can not only bring cooler air in from the outdoors, they also help evaporate perspiration off of your body which is nature’s method of cooling you down. If you want to enhance the effect of evaporative cooling you can splash water on yourself. The cooling from evaporation is so powerful that it will even cool you down when the air the fan is blowing around is warmer than your body temperature.

Now of course, you don’t want to put a fan in the window on a day when the temperature is over 100 and much warmer than the temperature of your house. Then you would be bringing hotter air into the house and it will take longer to cool down at night.  On a hot afternoon you just need to have the fan blowing on you while you are watching TV, cooking, or sitting by the computer.

What we do to save electricity at our house is turn the fan on (in the window) at night, around sunset, when the temperature outside becomes lower the the temperature of the house inside. It really works well if you have one fan blowing the cool air in and on the other side of the room or house you have another fan blowing hot air out. We let the fans go all night into the morning. Once the sun is up and the temperature rises a bit, then we turn the fans off and pull shades down over the windows. This usually keeps some of the cool night air in the house for a few hours and reduces the need to run our window unit air conditioner.

Another trick I learned when I lived out in California and drove a car without air conditioning is to eat ice cubes. I tried just driving with my windows open all the time but then when I would get stuck in traffic (which is pretty much everytime and everywhere you drive in California) that didn’t help so much. So what I would do is stop at a convenience store and get a large fountain cup. Most of the time I wouldn’t even fill it up with soda (the sugared soda is awful/terrible for your health anyway). I would just fill the large cup up with ice and pay for that (usually $1 or so). A large cup of ice might last me an hour or more. I would hold the ice in my mouth for a little and then crunch it up with my teeth. It seemed too work quite well. Just like drinking a cold glass of water I suppose.

Have a nice Thursday!

Posted under Drought, Heat, Records