Every year we provide tips for surviving severe weather events here in Wisconsin. There is a Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Awareness Week, A Flood Safety Week, Lightning Safety, Safe Boating Week, and Winter Weather Awareness Week, just to name a few. While researching safety tips for an upcoming presentation, I thought I would look at some other types of disasters that do not normally happen in Northcentral Wisconsin, just for my own knowledge, because I never know what might happen in places where I might travel. 

I lived in California for almost a year but I never did feel or experience an earthquake. It must have been one of the quietest earthquake years in California’s history. I didn’t even feel a minor tremor. It is probably a good thing, because I didn’t know how to protect myself in the event of a big quake. I am not going to go through all the different safety and preparedness tips here in the blog, just a couple interesting things I learned. For more in depth information here are a couple of websites I found useful:

Geology.com and National Geographic

One of the more interesting tips was that if you are sleeping when an earthquake happens, you should stay in bed and cover your head with a pillow. Also, if you are cooking, it is reccommended you turn off the stove before seeking safety in your home. I suppose the danger of an electrical or gas fire due to the stove being on is greater than threat posed by delaying your move to get under something sturdy and away from the walls and windows.

When looking at Hurricane safety and preparedness, it seemed fairly simple. Most of the action occurs before a storm arrives. The main safety advice is to just evacuate – have a family disaster plan in place and then be ready to evacuate. Be sure to take your pets as well. Once an area is quarantined by the authorities, they will not let you in no matter what. I have heard second hand of horror stories where people were literally just a few yards from their starving pets but they were not allowed to cross the barricade/check point in order to save them. One piece of advice that I did not find on official hurricane safety sites was to keep an axe in your attic. This is advice I have heard from other people and it is mentioned here. The idea here is that if there is major flooding during or after a hurricane and you are trapped in your house, you can use the axe to chop a hole in your roof so you can get out.

Do any of you have any hurricane or earthquake stories to share? What about any other odd natural disasters that don’t normally occur in Northcentral Wisconsin?

We certainly have not had to deal with many Winter “disasters” this year. The Winter has been pretty tame, but it was not predicted to be that way by some. If you remember back to the Fall, the Farmer’s Almanac and Accuwx were at least two sources that were predicting very harsh Winter conditions across the Midwest, including Wisconsin. I think those forecasts were based mainly on the fact that La Nina was occurring in the Pacific. Last Winter there was a La Nina in the Pacific and it WAS a bad Winter. This year was almost the opposite.

You will recall that even I was predicting a little below normal temps and a little above normal snowfall – mainly due to La Nina. I didn’t go overboard because this Winter’s La Nina was not as strong as last Winter and because I know that La Nina historically has not had as strong an influence on our Winter weather as El Nino. It is true that the last 3 La Nina’s brought colder and snowier winter conditions to Wisconsin, but if you go farther back in history, the correlation is not as clear.

Computer Forecasts for ENSO Trend

So what is La Nina up to now? A moderate La Nina is still occurring but it has shown signs of slight weakening in the past month. Here is the latest monthly diagnostic discussion. The computer models are forecasting a continued weakening over the next couple of months, enough so that it is gone (temps in the ocean would be neutral) around May. I just hope that all of our Winter weather has not been saved-up only to be unleashed upon us in March and April. I wouldn’t mind see some above normal precipitation this Spring (I hate droughts), just as long as it comes as rain and not snow & cold.

Have a fine Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Earthquake, ENSO Update, Hurricanes, Natural Disasters, Weather Safety

The plane used by NOAA to study hurricanes, and now winter storms. Image from NOAA.

A Gulfstream twin-engine turbo jet used to study hurricanes will be put to work to help forecast winter storms this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  

In an article published Jan. 12^th, NOAA says the jet will be flown around the North Pacific Ocean in January and February.  It will deploy sensors to “collect information where the jet stream and moisture from the ocean interact and breed potentially powerful winter storms that impact North America several days later.”

On board the aircraft meteorologists will be looking at a host of atmospheric conditions.  Included in their laundry list are wind, pressure, temperature and humidity levels.

In the article, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Capt. Barry Choy says that comparing the information gathered with the sensors with satellite imagery “significantly enhance[s] four-to-seven day winter weather forecasts.” 

NOAA uses the plane to study hurricanes during the late summer and fall seasons.  Its selected flight path will be to the east and west of Hawa’ii where the plane is currently stationed and as far north as Alaska. 

To read the article in its entirety and to see photos, log on to: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120111_g4hawaii.html

Posted under Arctic climate, Environment, forecast, Hurricanes, International Weather, Nature, new media, Oceans, Science, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Storms, Weather and Health, Weather History, Weather NEws, World Weather

We have heard through the last few years about how the weather is supposedly getting more “wild” or extreme, primarily due to anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and there is some data that seems to back this up. Insured losses have been increasing in recent years and last year was the worst. 2011 was the costliest year of natural disasters on record, totaling 380 billion across the world!

One thing to remember, and something many commentators have pointed out, is that this is a record for INSURED losses. This plays a part in trying to assess any increase in extreme weather. Just because insured losses hit a record, does not necessarily mean that there were more devastating weather events. If could be that the worst weather of the year just happened to hit highly populated “expensive” areas of the world. The previous record year was 2005 when category 5 hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the gulf coast of the U.S. including the major population center of New Orleans. There have been other years with category 5 hurricanes that were unremarkable for insured losses because the hurricanes did not strike populated areas. So in order to know for sure that extreme weather is increasing, we will need to consider objective data besides insured losses. Climatologists have been busy tabulating the number of flood events, amounts of rainfall, number of heat waves, the number of record temperature events, and many other things. So far, the one trend that has been confirmed is that the frequency of heavy rain events is increasing in many parts of the world. At this page you can find some data about severe weather (including heavy rain) and whether or not it is increasing.

Satellite image of hurricane Katrina

Many other trends in extreme weather have not been robustly confirmed. There has been much debate about whether hurricanes have increased in number and/or intensity in recent decades. Many people expect this should be (or will be) the case because the temperature of the oceans has gone up a little and the heat content of the ocean is one of the key drivers of hurricanes. Reality has not kept up with these expectations. Hurricanes are complex weather phenomena and the temperature of the ocean is only one factor. Wind shear is quite important as well. A recent study by Christopher Landsea has found no substantial direct link between hurricanes and AGW and suggests that effects will be negligible through 2100. Once Landsea factored in population growth along the coast of the U.S. and better monitoring techniques, the apparent increase in insured losses and number/intensity of hurricanes was not substantial.

Japan Tsunami

Which brings us back to the record year of insured losses in 2011. It would not have been a record year for insured losses of natural disasters except for one event and you can probably guess what it was – the Japan earthquake and tsunami.  The earthquake and tsunami resulted in an estimated 210 billion in insured losses. Taking out that one event and we end up with only 170 billion in losses. It was still a bad year for “bad” weather and natural disasters, but 170 billion is 50 billion less than the previous record of 220 billion in 2005. Since earthquakes and tsunamis are not directly weather related, this should be kept in mind when using insured losses as a metric of whether extreme weather is increasing.

When discussing extreme weather and AGW, the vast majority of the content is negative. The basic premise is that AGW is going to theoretically destroy the environment. Once in a while though, something positive makes it into the discussion. In the past, the few positive aspects of the theoretical future warming hinge upon more areas around the poles becoming more habitable. The frozen north of Canada (and Siberia) might become a productive growing area.

Extent of the last ice age

Another potential positive (I think it is a good thing anyway), is that theoretical AGW might stall the onset of the next ice age. According to some geologists we are already overdo for an ice age. According to this latest research, an new ice age should begin within the next 1,500 years but the co-authors claim AGW will delay or prevent it. This is a good thing because if the planet became 5 degrees colder instead of 5 degrees warmer, we would have much bigger problems, in my opinion. Colder temps would mean an expansion of frozen tundra and the ice caps and likely lead to much less rainfall due to colder ocean temps and more water being locked up as ice at the poles. The would be much less space for agriculture. Much suffering would ensue. I am not saying hooray for AGW, but I am saying that delaying the next ice age is a good thing. If it a new ice age was upon us, we would probably be compelled to spend a lot of resources figuring out ways to warm up the planet.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Hurricanes, International Weather, Natural Disasters, Severe Weather, Storms, Tsunami, World Weather

NOAA accurately predicted the path of Hurricane Irene in August.

Accurate forecasting of hurricanes is very important.  And when it came to Hurricane Irene, the National Oceanic and Atmoshperic Administration nailed it. 

NOAA recently released a video that overlays their prediction from four days before the storm’s landfall with the actual path the hurricane took.  (Watch the video HERE). 

You’ll see that when Irene moved through the Bahamas the track it took was exceptionaly close to where NOAA forecasters predicted it. 

That’s good news.  Hurricanes cost money.  Evacuations are time-consuming and stressful.  But the better we get at predicting their path, the less negative impact they’ll have making a situation that has no upside a bit easier to manage. 

Posted under Hurricanes, International Weather, Natural Disasters, Storms

Irene was on the lips of every weather commentator over the weekend. The storm did not have as bad of wind as originally projected but it still caused damage and quite a bit of flooding. Tragically, 26 deaths have been blamed on the storm. While zero fatalities would have been the most desireable result, considering that about 60 million people were in or near the path of the storm, it wasn’t the worst result one can imagine. I suppose we should get used to millions, maybe even hundreds of millions, being under threat from hurricanes, because cities around the world continue to grow – especially along the coasts – which makes each ocean-linked weather/natural disaster worse than the last. I am thinking insurance rates might need to go up in cities along the coast.

Speaking of ”being on the lips”, the funniest clip of the weekend is of an east coast weathercaster who was out in the storm and covered in a frothy sea foam blown up by the wind. I am unsure who figured out that there might also be human sewage mixed in with the foam (maybe a sewage treatment plant or drain pipe nearby?), but when the news anchors asked “what does the foam taste like?” it was quite funny. Here is a link to the video. 

Irene once again formed during a time of year which is uncanny for its coordination with the season’s first major hurricane. There have been some fairly powerful hurricanes before August 20th, but the vast majority begin on or shortly after the 20th. You can practically set your watch to it. Here is an article about the curious timing. The late August ramp-up of major hurricanes is most likely due to the water temperature hitting its warmest point of the year and the atmospheric winds becoming more favorable (low wind shear).

In regards to monitoring and predicting hurricanes, there is still a lot to learn and this year meteorologists are using a new diagnostic method to get a better look inside hurricanes as they develop and intensify. It is analyzing passive microwave radiation. By observing the amount of ice in hurricane clouds using satellites that sense microwave radiation, forecasters should be able to more accurately predict when hurricanes go through a period rapid intensification.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Hurricanes, Natural Disasters

Here’s a few links to global news sources, with non-English articles roughly translated.  It’s always interesting to see what people around the globe are talking about and to see a perspective from outside the US is fascinating. 

Read the article in French or English. 

- Irene leaves behind flooding, millions without power — and relief that it wasn’t worse:  Toronto Star (Canada)

Read the article in English. 

- Wirbelsturm traf USA mit seiner sanfteren Hälfte:  Der Spiegel (Germany)

Read the article in German or English. 

- Kiwis batten hatches in NY ghost town : The New Zealand Herald (New Zealand)

Read the article in English.

- Orkaan Irene trekt voorbij New York:  Radio Netherlands Worldwide (The Netherlands)

Read the article in Dutch or English. 

- Two million evacuated as Hurricane Irene hits US: Ghana Broadcasting Corporation (Ghana)

Read the article in English.

Posted under Hurricanes, International Weather, Natural Disasters, new media, Severe Weather, Storms, Weather History, Weather NEws, World Weather

Viewer-submitted photo of Hurricane Irene from Mary Ussery

Even with non-stop media coverage of Hurricane Irene slamming the Eastern Seaboard this weekend it’s easy to overlook the storm’s details. 

Reports from weathercasters and journalists standing in the storm focus on getting the most important information out first and foremost.

We hear a lot about how much rain is falling and where the strongest wind gusts have been so far.  We know about the evacuations and the historic implications the storm has already had on New York City before the worst of it arrives. 

Viewer-submitted photo of Hurricane Irene from Mary Ussery

But if you’re looking for an extremely detailed breakdown of the hurricane direct from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration you’ve come to the right place. 

Click HERE to go straight to the official Hurricane Irene Quick Look page.  This will provide you with a feed of instant storm analysis from the 14 active monitoring stations along the coast being impacted by the storm. 

You can also see in graphical form the progession of wind gusts, water levels, and barometric pressure as the storm moves over each station. 

Hurricane Irene has weakend a bit but considering it’s path it doesn’t need to be a strong hurricane to do extreme damage.  No matter what the outcome this will be one storm that we study, talk about, and reference for quite some time to come. 

Posted under Hurricanes, Natural Disasters, Oceans, Severe Weather, Storms, Tropics, Viewer pictures, Weather History, Weather NEws

I often write about the many potential advantages of switching over to an electrified economy and have focused a lot of discussion on the newest electric vehicles. The EVs are a triumph of engineering but not yet a triumph in the marketplace. Surprisingly, they have not yet conquered the list of greenest vehicles either. Believe it or not, the greenest vehicle available (according to ACEEE) - for EIGHT YEARS running – is the Honda Civic GX. It is a compressed natural gas vehicle.

It is a shame that natural gas has not been more promoted as a bridge fuel to the future, especially since tycoon Boone Pickens has staked his fortune on short term development of U.S. natural gas resources while we continue to implement solar and other future energy sources and move away from oil. There are so many positives to developing more natural gas infrastructure (more jobs, less reliance of foreign oil, less carbon emissions, etc…), I am amazed that our government has not lent more of a helping hand. They waste soooooo much money on so many other questionable projects, you would think they could pay a little more attention to natural gas.

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In weather history today we find the eruption of the volcano Krakatoa. Here is a little blurb about the event from WeatherForYou:

“1883 – Krakatoa Volcano exploded in the East Indies. The explosion was heard more than 2500 miles away, and every barograph around the world recorded the passage of the air wave, up to seven times. Giant waves, 125 feet high and traveling 300 mph, devastated everything in their path, hurling ashore coral blocks weighing up to 900 tons, and killing more than 36,000 persons. Volcanic ash was carried around the globe in thirteen days producing blue and green suns in the tropics, and then vivid red sunsets in higher latitudes. The temperature of the earth was lowered one degree for the next two years, finally recovering to normal by 1888. (David Ludlum)”

Posted under Alternative Energy, Hurricanes, Weather History

The big weather story around the U.S. for the next 5 or 6 days will be Hurricane Irene which was rated category 1 as of Monday evening, just north of the Dominican Republic.  It will track northwest and encounter very warm ocean water and light winds aloft.  This will be ideal for steady strengthening as it moves over the Bahamas.  It could be a devastating hurricane for the Bahamas as all of the islands in the chain look to be in the path of potential 100 mph plus winds, very heavy rain, and storm surge over 8 feet near the coasts. 

The computer models have been shifting the track steadily to the east as it moves toward the southeast U.S.  You may have heard a few days ago it looked possible it would make landfall toward southern Florida.  Now the more likely path takes the eye toward North Carolina toward Friday or Saturday.  It is projected to be a category 3 hurricane (or major hurricane) at that point.  Some of the hurricane models actually have it up to category 4 strength with sustained winds up to 130 mph.  We’ll have to wait and see.

Of course the Carolinas have seen their share of hurricanes over the years.  North Carolina especially is vulnerable as it juts out farther east into the Atlantic, bringing it closer to many hurricane paths.  Perhaps you remember Floyd that clobbered North Carolina in September of 1999.  While it hit the Cape Fear and Wilmington area with 120 mph winds and 8 to 9 foot surge, its most devastating impact was flooding.  It dumped as much as 19 inches of rain in North Carolina.  Severe flooding was noted all the way up the East Coast eventually with about 55 deaths.  You can learn more about Floyd by checking out this link from the National Hurricane Center.  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml#floyd

Satellite Image of Hurricane Floyd

Another classic Carolina hurricane was Hugo of September 1989.  It crossed the Bahamas as well then charged onshore just north of Charleston, SC as a category 4 storm.  It produced a massive storm surge up to 20 feet high between Charleston and Myrtle Beach.  It claimed 21 lives in the mainland U.S.  You can find out more about Hugo by seeing this link from the National Hurricane Center, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml#hugo

Below is a list of other major hurricanes to hit North Carolina since the 1800s.  Hazel was probably the strongest.

Posted under Hurricanes, Natural Disasters, Weather NEws

While the weather looks warmer than normal for this week and probably the first part of the weekend (as it has been for most of this month), there is no guarantee this trend will continue into the Fall.

To give us an inkling of how things might change we turn to the latest edition of the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) monthly outlooks - released over the weekend. In this latest model run we see the un-exciting “EC” category over Wisconsin for September. “EC” means the computer models are predicting an equal chance of temperatures being above normal or below normal (same goes for the September precipitation).

CPC Sept. Temp Outlook

The weather could end up warm and dry or cold and wet – but we get no definitive guidance from the climate models.

For September, the one part of the country with more than equal chances of a temperature trend is in the south and southwest, including Texas. The CPC outlook is for a higher chance of above normal temps than below normal temps – just the thing Texans do not want to hear. They have already had their fill of heat (and drought) so far this year.

CPC Sep-Oct-Nov Temp Outlook

Looking a little further into the future, the three month outlook (September, October, November) indicates a greater chance of above normal temps for our part of the country, which would mean a very nice Fall period. Since the computer models are indicating EC for September alone, then that might mean the warmer weather will be concentrated in October and November, prolonging our “warm” season a bit. Keep your fingers crossed.

What about for all the winter enthusiasts? Well, there might be some good news for you as well. The CPC three month outlook for the winter (December, January, February) indicates a little better chance of below normal temps than above normal temps.

CPC Winter Temp OutlookCPC Winter Precip Outlook

The climate models also indicate a greater chance of above normal precipitation around the central Great Lakes region, including southeastern Wisconsin. Much will hinge on the El Nino/La Nina (ENSO) trend in the Pacific ocean. Right now the southcentral Pacific ocean surface temps are in a neutral range and they are expected to stay that way through the Fall. Some ENSO computer models are hinting at the formation of another, albeit weak La Nina. If La Nina forms, recent history indicates it will increase our chances of having real Wisconsin Winter weather (cold and snow).