I have been covering and studying the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) ”situation” (science, media, politics) for over a decade now, yet I am continually amazed at the twists-n-turns of the topic and the complexity of diagnosing changes in the climate.

One thing that hasn’t changed is the failure of the political process to solve anything. As I highlighted several times in the past, the Kyoto Accord was very flawed from the start. I  (and many others)suspected it would do more harm than good. There was no shared sacrifice built into it. Some countries had to cut emissions while others were given a free ride. In the end, about the only countries that successfully reduced carbon emissions were those in eastern Europe, but that is not really something to crow about. Eastern European countries would have had reduced emissions even without Kyoto because they retired all of their old inefficient Soviet-era coal power plants. No other countries hit their emission targets, except ironically, the U.S which never ratified the Kyoto Accord. Emissions in the U.S. are now at a 20 year low! China and India, who were exempt from Kyoto, naturally are now the biggest emitters. Many people could see the flaws in Kyoto and predicted exactly what would happen, so I am surprised to see some people were surprised by the failure of the Accord. In retrospect, I suppose compromises have to be made when trying to put a world-wide regulation into place so negotiators did the best they could, but unfortunately came up with a document that did more harm than good. The current climate negotiations are more direct. It is proposed that advanced nations support a fund that would go to pay poor countries for damages related to AGW.

On the media side of things, there are still signs of over-hyping. Ever since I can remember, it is always “AGW is worse than we thought” (or warmer than most climatoloiogists think). I recall reading a similar headline eight years ago. AGW theory, if substantially correct, would certainly cause problems in the environment and some things are changing in line with some predictions, but it is 2013 the world hasn’t ended. I am unsure how much all of the apocalyptic “it is worse than we thought” headlines (for 20 years) have turned people off to the topic, but I am sure there are some. What usually happens is that people DO heed warnings, adjust their behaviors, and take corrective measures, it is just not as visible or as fast as environmentalists would like.

Even though many proponents for “climate action” highlight the worst possible scenarios, there is some evidence that AGW will not be as bad as forecast. A familiar skeptic, James Delingpole, relates some recent information on why AGW might be on the very low end of estimates - that temperature rise in the next century will not be that much different than the rise last century. It has to do with some basic assumptions of how much heat the oceans have taken up in the past and will take up in the future.

In a similar manner, some of the catastrophic drought predictions might not be as bad as originally thought due to a flaw in how drought has been monitored and calculated throughout the last few decades. Many of you might be familiar with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. I have referenced it a few times as a fairly good measure to look at past dry and wet years in Wisconsin. The problem is that the PDSI is not as good as it could be. There are better ways of measuring precipitation and evaporation and determining how much drought is occurring around the world. Using the more precise formula/calculation, it has been found that world-wide drought hasn’t increased much in the last few decades and it might not in the future either.

This also relates somewhat to the recent drop in in sea levels around the world. I know that you have heard about how the sea level will go inexorably higher, swamping coastlines and islands, but in 2010 and early 2011 the average sea level around the globe actually fell by a significant amount – only to rise once again toward the long term trend in 2012. One of the reasons for the reverasal in sea level rise was increased precipitation over land. Warmer oceans led to more moisture in the air which generally leads to more precipitation. This might counteract some of the drought predictions for coming decades.

A receding glacier in Alaska

In regards to ice around the world, you could understandably become confused by the expansion of sea ice around Antarctica and the reduction of sea ice around the arctic. It seems every other headline says there is catastrophic melting vs. it is not melting as much as thought (especially in Greenland). The headlines from last Summer that “all of Greenland has melted” might have been one of the real head scratchers. Believe it or not, this has happened before when warm winds have blown over the island. It wasn’t all of the ice that melted, it was just the surface snow/ice that had melted. Think of it like a frozen lake here in Wisconsin during the Winter. During much of the winter the lakes have a thick sheet of ice with a some snow on top. When some warmer weather hits (like last week’s January thaw) the snow on top of the ice melts and the surface becomes wet. That is what happened last Summer in Greenland. Only the top layer of snow melted, which is still significant because that does not happen over the entire island very often. As far as ice goes around the rest of the world, some glaciers are melting while others are expanding (another article here).

One of the more significant developments recently is that more climatologists are now on board with the ‘AGW has ground to a halt theme’ – citing the fact that natural forcing still plays a role and that ocean circulations have probably put the brakes on AGW at least in a small way at least for the last decade or so. In “my AGW position” blog post from a couple years ago, I mentioned that the climate changes we have seen recently are a combination of natural cycles and human influence, so I am pleased to hear of some agreement on this thought recently. Lately, I would say that there is enough evidence to say that the human influence has grown, but natural climate cycles will still throw a wrench in even the best programmed climate models in future years. Even though most climatologist would say changes in the sun’s energy output are too minor to make a difference, I still have a suspicion that the extremely low sun cycle we are in could have some cooling influence over the next few years.

None other than James Hansen has also stated that there could be a significant cooling trend over the next decade or two. Not because AGW has stopped, but because it might be affecting the planet quicker than expected. So how could faster warming cause cooling? Doesn’t seem to make much sense. He says that recent modeling shows that if the ice melts faster than expected, then that could cause some cooling to occur in the oceans which could then cause a temporary cooling trend for the planet as a whole. So the forecast that it is only going to get hotter in the U.S. (and elsewhere) might be off by a bit. I hope so, not only do I NOT like too much heat and humidity (like last Summer) but more of a cooling trend (either by a low sun cycle, ocean currents changing, or increased ice melting) would give us time to develop cleaner energy technology and more control over the weather and climate. A decade or two is A LOT of time in today’s fast changing world.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Arctic climate, Climate Change, Oceans

Photo from NOAA

I came across this interesting link on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administation (NOAA) website I thought would be interesting to share. 

If you’ve ever wanted to explore deep beneath the oceans, you’re not alone.  And now you have the chance to, right from your computer.

Scientists from Australia, New Zealand and the U.S.  are conducting expeditions to the bottom of the Western Pacific Ocean and taking cameras with them. 

If you click on this link you can see where the current expedition location is: http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/12fire/welcome.html

And if you click on this link you can see streaming video from under the ocean: http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/12fire/media/12firestream_playlist.html

It’s pretty cool to see a place on planet Earth we sure don’t see very often!

Posted under Oceans, Science

I ran across an ongoing project that NOAA has been involved with since 1996, picking up marine debris around the Hawaiian Islands.  I was amazed by how much they get.  The latest expedition which sent the 224 foot NOAA ship Oscar Elton Sette out on the northwest banks of the Hawaiian Islands hauled in 50 metric tons of mostly stray fishing gear.  A majority of it was runaway fishing nets.  They could have brought in much more but the ship was at maximum capacity.

Source: NOAA

The derelict marine debris is a major hazard to sea-life such as seals and turtles and generally harms the entire coral reef ecosystem that is common in the area.  Since 2002 NOAA’s efforts have cleaned out 730 metric tons of nets from the ocean.  As part of Hawaii’s Nets to Energy Program, the nets have been turned into a good amount of electricity.  In fact it’s been enough electricity to power 330 Hawaii homes for about a year!  That’s great.  They are turning something destructive to the ocean and sea life into something positive and necessary for humans.

You can read much more about this and other related marine projects from the following link.   http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120717_marinedebris_cruise.html

Posted under Alternative Energy, Ecology, Environment, Oceans

There has been more than enough flooding between Hurricane Debby in Florida and the State of Emergency in northwest Wisconsin.  But one water phenomenon that is not well known in the United States is the tidal bore.  Also called a true tidal wave, bores are waves that form at the leading edge of the incoming tide and travel against the typical current of the waterway.  These are found mostly near funnel-shaped river mouths or small bays, in relatively few locations worldwide.  One such location is the Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia, Canada.  
    “Tidal bores takes place twice a day during the flood tide and never during the ebb tide. A tidal bore may take on various forms, ranging from a single breaking wavefront with a roller to a smooth wavefront followed by a train of secondary waves (whelps). Large bores can be particularly dangerous for shipping, but also present opportunities for river surfing.” ~http://bayoffundy.com/about/tidal-bore/

Tidal bores can cause a rising surge of water 3 feet high that move at 10 to 15 mph.  They can even generate vigorous rapids behind.   To learn more about tidal bores, check out  www.bayoffundy.com

Thanks to my son Douglas Schumacher for researching and assisting in the writing of this post!

Posted under Education, Oceans

Before getting into any other subjects, I should bring everyone up to date on the latest El Nino/La Nina trend, which is one of the  more important ocean/atmosphere circulations we monitor. The latest ENSO diagnostic discussion indicates that the La Nina from this past Winter has ended. The central Pacific ocean surface temperatures are now basically neutral and are expected to stay that way for the next couple of months. By this Fall the computer model forecasts indicate a trend toward a weak El Nino. This is important. Almost every time we have an El Nino in the tropical Pacific we have warmer than normal Winter conditions here in Wisconsin and lower than normal snowfall.

CPC Model Projection

The stronger the El Nino, the warmer our Winter could be. Right now it looks like a weak El Nino will form at best, but it is early in the year, so there could be some notable changes yet before Fall arrives.

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And now a little follow-up on a subject that was much more prevalent last year but many people seem to have forgot about. As has been mentioned in many outlets outside of the mainstream media, the Fukushima nuclear disaster is not over and it is worse than thought. Spent fuel pools (as well as other parts of the reactor) are a grave danger to the U.S. according to at least one Senator who visited the site.

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In another follow-up, I sometimes bring a bevy of news and research that shows things are not as bad as originally portrayed, either for the present or into the future. Last year I blogged about how the trash in the Pacific is not as bad as originally reported. Now this year we have a finding that declares the trash in the ocean could be significant, just not in the way we might have thought in the past. A oceanographer researching in the Pacific found a lot of small particles of plastic a bit below the surface. These types of particles would normally float on the surface and be visible but wave and wind action drives them a few feet below the surface. Past surveys of ocean garbage generally only skimmed the surface water. Smaller particles could more easily find their way into the food chain and cause some disruptions. What is not know is whether these particles are all over the ocean. Maybe they are only in certain areas near manufacturing centers or shipping lanes, such as southeast Asia.

Also, in the not-as-bad-as-originally-proclaimed theme, during the past couple decades the AGW discussion has been peppered with proclamations about “increased storminess”, “more hurricanes”, “more floods”, even more tornadoes. In the case of tornadoes, every time there is a big outbreak, someone usually speculates as to whether the seemingly increasing number of tornadoes is due to AGW. In another, maybe it is not as bad as originally portrayed, the case for tornadoes is not clear cut. There are many factors in the atmosphere that have to be “just right” and these factors might not all come together to produce more tornadoes in the future even if we end up with some theoretical ranges in warming from AGW.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, ENSO Update, Environment, Oceans, Tornadoes

Yesterday I detailed how economic considerations usually trump environmentalism (and AGW concerns) because of the near-term immediate impact of “economics”. When people are more worried about the next paycheck, they are less concerned with how much the climate might warm up 90 years from now, or how much the ocean might rise 1,000 years from now.

Despite the current economic recession, there are still many people concerned about what might happen to the environment and climate, as am I. Given the sometimes hyperbolic pronouncements of how nearly everything in the biosphere is going to die due to AGW, I am surprised more people don’t at least follow more of the headlines (whether a person is skeptical or not). Even as I am concerned about future pollution, I am not fatalistic. I know that fossil fuel usage is unlikely to continue the same upward trend into the future as it did in the past. I know that technological progress continues and this should help us be more efficient in the future as well as clean up some “messes”. I also know that life has a tremendous ability to adapt.

In the case of adaptability, many people are quite fatalistic about the fate of the oceans as the water warms up, even in the bottom water around Antarctica. Warmer and more acidic oceans are expected to be more hostile to life, including corals. Thankfully, at least in the near term, it appears that corals are not going to all die off. Recently scientists have found corals that can thrive in warmer than normal water and some that can adapt to higher acidity. Still, there might be some limit to which adaptation fails and some sort-of mass extinction occurs in the oceans, as seemed to have happened in the distant past.

If ocean acidification does become a major problem, it will potentially be a harder problem to crack/fix than just plain old warming of a couple of degrees. If heat would get to be too much of a problem, it could be fixed fairly easily with some sort-of sunshade technology. A recent study suggested that sunshade geoengineering would not affect crops too much. But cooling by blocking the sun would not help reduce the acidity of the ocean. Also, as far as future energy sources go, biofuels would once again be the worst choice because they still result in carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere (as well as bunch of other reasons - I have covered before). In addition we also need to keep a close eye on all of the synthetic biology that is being developed in the pursuit of biofuels. Solar, nuclear, geothermal, and wind would probably be our best bets to not only reduce pollution but to reduce the acidification of the oceans. Otherwise, we might end up doing some grand antacid experiments in the future.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Oceans, Pollution

Follow-up: last week I mentioned the HumanBirdWings viral video in the blog and said I was rather skeptical about it. My skepticism was justified as the Dutch film-maker gave up the prank late last week, saying it was an exercise in storytelling. It was also a very good fake video. Read a little more about the fake here.

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Given the warm weather a lot of people have been asking me about the snowmelt contest. It will be starting a few days earlier this year but not until the middle of April. The entry period will be for a couple weeks in April, and then we will wait and watch to see when the snow finally melts. The entry period usually goes through the last day of April but this year, if more very warm weather hits in April, the snow could melt during the last couple days of the month. More than likely it will last into May or June. I will let you know all the details here in the blog when the time comes.

The warm weather also has people thinking about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) a bit more as well, but not as much as you might think. Recent surveys have found that concern about AGW has waned as the economy has worsened. This should not be surprising. Most people are most concerned about their near-term situation. In the current recession, millions of people have lost jobs, food insecurity has increased, some have lost pensions or health-care coverage. These things affect how people will think/behave today or tomorrow. With respect to AGW, it is predicted to be environmental Armageddon, which would be very bad if it happens, but it is a slow-motion threat. It would evolve over the course of decades. The cost of damage to the ocean’s alone could be about $2 trillion according to one estimate, but $2 trillion spread out over decades, again, is not as dramatic. If people are hungry today, they will not focus too much on the prospect of the temperature rising by a few degrees 90 years from now. Now only if people would stop having as many kids (because of economic concerns), they might be able to solve near term problems and long term problems (AGW) at the same time. Whatever moves we make, more bureaucracy, as is suggested here, is probably the worst possible solution. 

This type of simple economic calculation also applies to alternative energy. A recent opinion article really does a good job stating the obvious, that alternative energy technology will not be widely adopted until we run out of fossil fuels. I am not that pessimistic but I know what the reality is. As long as fossil fuels are cheaper than the alternatives they will remain king. Even I declined to buy an electric car when I purchased a vehicle last year. The sticker price of electric car offerings were just too high. So it is left to upper income types to push fledgling technology forward. Most of the rest of us might not be choosing to go electric (or solar/wind for our house) but we are choosing more efficient vehicles. A recent study shows that the average mpg of the U.S. “fleet” is now at an all time high of 23. Good job U.S.! As long as the price of gas remains high, this number should continue to climb in coming years. Both of my cars get over 30 mpg and I hope I can afford one that achieves 40 mpg for the next purchase (if a cheap EV is not available).

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Oceans, Pollution, Weather NEws

Photo from the Associated Press

A boat that was part of the five million tons of “stuff” thrown into the Pacific Ocean during the massive Japanese earthquake and tsunami has been spotted off the Canadian Coast. 

The Associated Press is reporting that the 65-meter long boat is moving toward land, 160 miles off the coastline of British Columbia. 

To put that in perspective, if you were driving down Interstate 39, that’s about 20 miles farther than the distance between Wausau and Madison!

The horrific earthquake and tsunami struck Japan just over one year ago on March 11, 2011.  More than 15,000 people died and it brought about one of the biggest nuclear power plant scares in years.    

According to The Toronto Star, there is no environmental concerns over the abandoned ship, but mariners in the Pacific Ocean need to take warning because “the vessel poses a potential navigational hazard.”

Photo from National Geographic

Posted under Earthquake, Environment, Flooding, Geology, Natural Disasters, Nature, Oceans, Tsunami, Uncategorized, Weather History, Weather NEws

In yesterday’s blog post I delved into the topic of less ice in the arctic and how it has changed through the centuries including during the Little Ice Age and other periods. Recent research has suggested that plants developing on land might have caused the very old ice ages hundreds of millions of years ago and that increased volcanism could have trigger the Little Ice Age, although many people suspect the Maunder Minimum of solar activity was the key factor in maintaining the Little Ice Age.

With the prospect of another solar minimum right around corner you know there are sure to be some fireworks in AGW discussions. Most scientists expect that solar activity will be lower than normal for the next few decades. This has led to speculation that our recent warmer climate might turn colder again. Most mainstream scientists think that “greenhouse gases” will overwhelm any effect from the sun. The Daily Mail (not the most scientific of sources) published this article recently taking a look at both sides of the issue.

Historical Sunspot Trends

Just in case the notion that the sun has a noticeable effect on the climate permeated to culture too much, some climatologists and media outlets were quick to point out that even if the sun’s output did decrease, it would only drop the earth’s temperature by a couple tenths of a degree in the next few decades. Alternatively, AGW projections estimate the earth could warm by 2 to 4 degrees. Gizmodo says we are NOT in for another little ice age, only a less extreme heat wave (if solar output goes down). James Hansen made sure to point out that recently, the earth has been absorbing more energy than it is emitting back into space, so it is likely that the climate will continue to warm.

Even though we could end up with increasing global temperatures, that does not mean that we would be without harsh winter’s. Past research has suggested and recent research has bolstered the premise that Europe could end up with more harsh winters because of less ice in the arctic.

Ice on the Black Sea

Less ice in the arctic changes the wind patterns and allows for more moisture in the air, thus the possibility of more snow and cold in parts of Europe. That would seem to be the case this year as many areas of central and eastern Europe are currently in the grip of an extreme cold wave. Many new monthly record lows have been set in Bulgaria and the Black sea is partially frozen. Just to give you an idea of how significant this cold wave is, the Black Sea has only completely frozen over 3 different times in modern recorded history.

Digesting the news and theories over the last couple of days, I could definitely see how a new little, or major, ice age could form. If increased volcanism occurred at the same time of a solar minimum while the world’s oceans are warmer than normal, this could lead to a lot more snow on land. The key point here is that the earths oceans have been warming up and they will not divest that warmth very easily (water has a high thermal stability). If the atmosphere cools down rapidly due to (volcanism and/or low solar activity) while the oceans stay warm, it could lead to greater temperature contrasts across the globe and more moisture in the air, both of which could drive stronger storms and more harsh wintry weather. While this is a possibility, odds are that we will continue to see some warming in the near future.

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Just one quick follow-up on a story I have been reporting on for a few years now: the Russians are very close to breaking into Vostok lake in Antarctica. This is a lake that is buried under at least 2 miles of ice and has not seen sunlight in over 100,000 years. Some scientists think that weird life forms might exist under the ice and are concerned that the Russian drilling experiment might contaminate the lake with pollutants of bacteria from the surface. Read more here.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Arctic climate, Climate Change, Oceans, Records, Weather History

One of the more interesting research results I have read recently is an attempt to link La Nina with major flu pandemics in human history. I am unsure why, but I instantly developed a heap of skepticism about this theory/study. I don’t have access to the full paper so I can’t evaluate the results as in depth as I would like, but I will opine anyway.

On a superficial level, this theory might seem to make common sense, in that colder weather is associated with a higher incidence of flu and colds. La Nina is a cooler than normal surface water pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean so perhaps it is also linked with colds and flu. Well, it is certainly not that simple when it comes to the spread of viruses.

The authors of the study speculate that La Nina changes the flight patterns of birds migrating around the globe. Birds carry viruses. During a La Nina, their altered migratory pattern puts them in areas where they can pick up different flu viruses. These viruses then mix and mutate within the birds creating a “bad flu” which eventually causes a pandemic in the human population of the world. The research claim that four widespread pandemics in the last 100 years happened around the same time that La Nina was occurring in the Pacific Ocean.

The Current La Nina, as of January 8th

I think it is just a chance association – a case of fitting data to a pattern without clearly delineating a cause. Here is why:

There are many weather patterns that affect the movement of birds and other migratory animals. The El Nino/La Nina cycle is an important one, but there are many other ocean and atmospheric patterns that could fit the bill. Even long droughts or significant floods can force animals to move hundreds or thousands of miles out of their normal range. Also, different strains of flu spread across the globe every year, not only during times of La Nina. Why would one ocean pattern (La Nina) cause more widespread pandemics than others that similarly cause disruption in animal/bird movement?

On a slightly different note, I have always wondered about the spread of flu and how we tackle the problem. In the absence of a sure-fire 100% technological/medical cure or antidote for the flu, I think it is a somewhat positive thing that viruses spread around the world. I like to think of us as having two immune systems, an individual one and a social one. The social immune system is all of ours, linked through the transmission of viruses.

In the distant past, humans did not travel the globe. When people did start moving large distances they brought “unknown” diseases to new lands. These diseases wiped out indigenous people who did not have any immune resistance built up to the new pathogens. It is estimated that over 90% of Native Americans in the U.S. died because of disease, not because European immingrants directly killed them. In today’s world, millions of people travel from one end of the globe to another every single day. There isn’t much chance for a particular virus to develop/mutate for decades or hundreds of years in a small isolated population in a distant corner of the earth, only to wreak havoc on the rest of the population once it is let out. Most viruses mutate and spread rather rapidly. They don’t have a great chance of picking up several deadly mutations over a long period of time. It would seem that minor mutations occur every year and once the “new” non-lethal viruses spread around the world (the annual flu season) we all gradually pick up immunity – through our social immune system. That is why I don’t mind getting the occasional flu or cold. Like the old saying goes, if it doesn’t kill you, it will only make you stronger. I am afraid that if viruses did not spread around, then we would be more susceptible to deadly versions in the future.

Of course, I am middle-aged, so I do not have as much to fear from the flu as the elderly. If I was older, I might be more germ-phobic. In the end, I definitely support the development of powerful technological/biomedical tools to eradicate all human diseases, pathological or otherwise. Until that point, the constant transmission of non-lethal viruses might be preventing the next big lethal pandemic. (just my little thought/theory about the flu I wanted to share, thanks for your attention, feel free to disagree)

Staying on the subject of La Nina, it is well known that it usually brings about lower than normal precipitation in the southern U.S., which is why folks in Texas were not looking forward to this Winter season. Luckily, many parts of Texas have received significant rain over the last couple of months so the drought is not as bad as earlier this year, but with La Nina expected to persist for another month or two, the situation could deteriorate. Check out the latest U.S. Drought Monitor here.

Lucky for us here in Wisconsin, below normal precipitation does not affect our livelihood too much. Snowmobiling has been non-existent for 95% of the state. Cross country skiing has been a little rough as well. But for food and water purposes, winter precipitation is not as critical as Spring and Summer precipitation. So even though 40% of the state is currently “abnormally dry” and it would be nice to pick up a couple feet of snow before Spring, rainfall will be the key once we get into April and May. That is when we will need it the most.

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And just for the heck of it, here is a little article I read recently about the “Check Engine” light all cars are equipped with. It isn’t weather or science related but it reproduces my opinion on the subject matter quite well. My “Check Engine” light story is this: The only new vehicle I have ever bought in my life came with a 60,000 mile full warranty. At about 60,213 miles the check engine light came on. I thought the timing was rather suspicious. When I took the car into the shop, there was a several hundred dollar list of repairs suggested - most were fixes or replacements of parts I have never heard of – and I know a bit about cars. Suffice it to say, the car was running fine so I didn’t get anything fixed. I have been driving it 5 years hence, all the while with the check engine light on, and it still runs just fine (I don’t recommend this practice, just relating a story here). Do any readers out there have any check engine light stories?

Have a fine Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update, Oceans, Uncategorized