The pattern of extreme changes continues this spring.  Perhaps you heard about the huge ice shoves this past weekend that pushed mega piles of ice off Lake Mille Lacs in Minnesota.  Homes and property on the southeast shore were damaged heavily as 35 mph northwesterly winds piled the floating up onto shore like a moving glacier.   You can watch the ice in action from the following link.  http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/ice-needle-shoves-surges-terrorize-great-lakes/12337031

Also a lake west of Winnipeg in Manitoba piled up ice 27 feet deep into some homes.  That is one of the weirdest natural disasters I can think of.  The wind that produced the ice pile ups was part of a deep trough of low pressure north of Lake Superior which drove the very chilly weather down into Wisconsin this past weekend.  Of course we had several record low temperatures Sunday night across Wisconsin.    The cold air is moving east.  In fact frost and freeze advisories were posted Monday night from portions of North Carolina northward to Maine.

Meanwhile red flag warnings have been posted into Tuesday in an area from Montana Iowa and Minnesota.  An intense burst of heat that originated in the Desert Southwest of the U.S. is shooting northeast across the country.  Highs could be close to 100 around Omaha, NE with 90s into southern Minnesota.  This coupled with low humidity, gusty winds, sunshine, and dry fuels will make for dangerous fire conditions.  Burning is prohibited and residents are asked to avoid any activities that could lead to sparks.

Red Flag Warnings are Pink. Frost and Freeze Warnings in Eastern U.S. in blue.

Just maybe the weather patterns will settle into something closer to normal over the next few weeks.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out.  The cold air intrusions have to run out sooner or later.  By the way we are getting to the point where gardeners wonder if we have seen the last frost for the season.  The average last frost date across Wisconsin varies from late April near Lake Michigan to early June in some northern areas.  So we are certainly getting a little safer from the cold with each passing day.

Posted under Fire, Freeze, Gardening, Heat, Natural Disasters, Records, Seasonal Items, Spring

We don’t get to the use the word “historic” or the words “all-time” very often, but it has happened a couple of times in the last 2 years. First it was the “all-time” warmest March for the state of Wisconsin (and most cities in the state) last year. This year it is just the opposite. We can’t seem to get rid of wintry weather and we just had a “historic” snowfall for not only Wisconsin but for Iowa and Minnesota as well. Not only did we end up with single day snowfall records for May 2nd (and probably today as well) for all three states, the snowfall has also broken the snow records for the entire month of May for all three states. Here are the old records for most snow in one storm for May:

Wisconsin: 10.0″  (new record 14.0″ but potentially as high as 17″)

Minnesota: 12.0″  (new record 15.4″)

Iowa: 10.0″  (new record 11.0″)

These are not officially in “the books” yet, but they look pretty solid. Climatologists will review the reports over the next couple of days and certify them.

And this comes after a very cool April, which was the 8th coldest on record for Wausau. If we had not seen the 5-day warm-up into the 70s and 80s at the end of the month of April, we would have easily set the mark for the 3rd coldest April and might have even challenged for second place. It was quite amazing that from February 1st through April 25th, we only had one day when the temperature hit 50 degrees (April 24th). We did not have any nice stretch of real Spring weather with high temps in the 50s and 60s. We jumped straight into Summer during the last 5 days of April, then we slipped back to Winter in a big way over the last couple of days. Here are the preliminary stats for April in Wausau:

Average High: 46.1  (normal: 54.8)

Average Low: 30.1 (normal: 33.3)

Precipitation: 4.39 inches  (normal: 2.73 inches)

Snowfall: 10.1 inches  (normal: 4.1 inches)

Highest Temp: 82 on the 30th

Lowest Temp: 14 on the 3rd

Have a fine Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Monthly Recap, Records, snow, Snow Totals, Spring, Winter Weather

With an expected 4 to 10″ of fresh snow by the morning of May 2nd across portions of western Wisconsin, many are asking if this is highly unusual?  Well in short the answer is yes.  One day snowfall records for western Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota are generally just a few inches with some of them going back to the late 1800s.  In general, you might expect a late season snowstorm of this magnitude in the region about every 25 or 30 years.  I’m sure a lot of people will be frustrated when they see the white landscape in the morning out there.  But if they can consider they are living through a situation of record proportions, maybe that will make it more exciting and a bit easier to work through.  Below are top daily May snowfall records for various cities in the storm’s path as put together by the National Weather Service.

TOP SNOWFALL EVENTS IN MAY FOR EAU CLAIRE, WI

Posted under Records, snow, Spring

I have to post in order to remind everyone to enter the Rib Mountain snowmelt contest (if you haven’t already). The deadline is Tuesday night at midnight. You can’t win and brag to all your friends about what a brilliant forecaster you are unless you enter. It is easy to do, just enter here: http://www.waow.com/story/21963495/2013/04/12/take-your-guess-in-the-annual-snowmelt-contest Don’t pass up such an easy chance at winning a $250 gift card for the R-store!

There is still a lot of snow out there on the slopes but it started to melt a little over the weekend and the warm weather has finally given me the chance to get out in my garden. Although, I still found some chunks of frozen ground yesterday when I was digging. This is the latest I can ever remember the ground being frozen. We finally also saw some crocus bloom over the weekend. This is the latest I can ever remember the crocus blooming as well. One would think we would have set some sort-of record for cold or snow, but we haven’t (unless there is some obscure record for fewest 40 degree days in March, or fewest 50 degree days in April). We had been close to setting the record for the coldest April ever until the warm-up hit over the weekend. The coldest April ever in Wausau occurred in 1950 when the average high temperature was just 34.0. Through yesterday, our average high temperature for April of 2013 has now risen up to 36.3. With warm weather continuing today and tomorrow, that average might yet climb up close to 38. At an average of 38.0 we would still be in the top ten for coldest Aprils. The last time we had such cold weather in April was in 1995 (10th coldest) and in 1996 (18th coldest). 1996 was the last time I can remember so much ice being on the lakes so late in the Spring. I talked to some folks from Boulder Junction over the weekend and they said there was close to 30 inches of ice on some of the lakes yet.

Getting out into the country and working on my garden gave me a chance to curse the ethanol mandate (and artificially high price of corn) again. I saw yet another farm (I drive by often) where the trees are being cut down in order to grow corn for someone’s fuel tank, and I am not talking about their stomach. Maybe I am just and “old-timer” now and resisting progress, but I don’t think so. The landscape used to be so much more scenic when I was growing up because there were many more rows of trees lining driveways and dividing fields. Now it is much more open, and this trend has accelerated in the last few years. Through the 1990s and 2000s it seemed that the natural landscape was holding up. Some areas were growing back into forests. With the advent of the ethanol mandate and the artificially high price of corn, that trend has rapidly reversed recently. I lament the habitat that is being lost for birds and other small animals. Trees take a long time to grow back. Does anyone else lament the clearing of so many trees recently? Like I have mentioned before, it is hard to fault farmers or ethanol producers for taking advantage of the market (artificial or not) and making a buck. I can’t say for sure what I would do if I needed extra money and the corn price was artificially high. I might chop down a few trees (but it would be one of the last things on my list). The real fault lies with policy makers in Washington. I doubt anything will change soon unless there is another drought this year and people start to go without food. In that case, I think the ethanol mandate would be dropped pretty quick, like it should have been years ago.

Have a fine Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Records, Seasonal Items, Snowmelt 2013

Even though the weather we have experienced since late January is unusual because of the persistent cold and getting even colder (than normal) as time goes by, we still have not broken any records for snow or cold. The length of time that we have had snowcover in Wausau is highly unusual, that is for sure, but the snow amounts with each storm have not been all tha big. The real difference with this Spring and other Springs where we might have seen some snow in April or even May, is that the snow is sticking around. In 2008 we had a few inches of snow between April 8th and April 12th, but it melted within a couple days and we were back to warmer-than-normal temps. This year, there is still no sign of an extended warm-up. The best we will do is get close to 50 today and tomorrow, which is better than nothing.

So is there any record that is about to go down? The most interesting record would be for the coldest month of April. The old record for coldest April in Wausau is 34.0 (average temp) set in 1950. So far this year our average temp is 32.5, so we are on pace to break the record. However, I think we will have enough 40 and 50 degree high temps for the rest of the month to ensure that we don’t end up breaking the all time record. We might end up in the top ten though.

What about snow? We are now up to 75.4 inches of snow for the season. The record is a little over 103 inches, so we have a ways to go on that one. If we get 30 inches of snow yet before Summer arrives, I would be amazed. There is some potential for snow later this week, but it looks like a few inches at the max. The good thing about all the snow is that it should help alleviate the drought. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows most of the state in moderate to severe drought, which is odd, since our precipitation total since January 1st is 7.66 inches, which is a whopping 2.81 inches above normal. I talked to the folks at the Drought Monitor and they said they did not want to remove the drought classifications just yet because they wanted to see how dry the soil was once it thawed. I think it will have a good deal of moisture.

Many people are asking if the cool Spring means a cool Summer as well. It is not necessarily the case that this would happen, although the “hot” March last year was followed by a hot Summer. What we can say for now is that temps will continue to remain below normal for the next week or two, which will almost being us to May. This does not mean it is going to be bitterly cold, just that we are more likely to have high temps in the 40s and 50s, instead of the 50s and 60s. Sometimes the El Nino/La Nina trend can give a clue what might happen a few months into the future, but right now the surface waters in the central Pacific ocean are about neutral and it is expected to stay that way through the early Summer, so neither El Nino or La Nina will be affecting us. Check the latest ENSO discussion here.

Have a fine Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update, Freeze, Records, Winter Weather

Judging by all of the grumbling going on recently, you might think that we are setting some records for cold or snow during this month of March. Interestingly, we are not even close. So far we have not set any daily records for snow or cold and it is highly unlikely that we will break any monthly records, that is unless we do not hit 40 degrees during the month. That might be an odd record that we set. I haven’t looked at all the March records all the way back to the 1800s, so I don’t know for sure if we have ever had a March without 40 degrees, but if it would happen this March, I will be sure to find out.

So how far away are we from the all time coldest March? About 5 degrees. The coldest March on record (in Wausau) occurred in 1899 when the average temperature was only 17.4 degrees. This year’s cold does not even put us in the top 10 for coldest March. In the 10 spot is March of 1926 and 1956. In both of those years the average temperature for the month was 21.9. This year our average temperature through the 20th is 22.1, which puts us in 11th place. With a bit milder weather on the way, I would expect our average temperature to rise up to around 24 or 25 yet before the end of the month, which would probably put us on the outside of the top 20 for coldest March. This March sure is one of the coldest in recent memory, but it doesn’t compare to the era prior to 1960, where most of the records herald from.

CPC April Temp Prediction

So yes, it is cold, there is a lot of snow on the ground yet, and we might not hit 40 this March, and this is reason to grumble a little. However, be thankful you didn’t have to live through March of 1899!Is there any hope for a blast of Spring-like warmth as we head into April? Maybe. Just looking at the extended daily weather charts, it doesn’t look like anything real warm for the next week to 10 days, however the newest CPC extended outlooks indicate at least a chance for a warm-up in April across the southeastern half of the country including the eastern half of Wisconsin. It isn’t a very strong signal for warmer weather, and we still have a bit of snow to melt away, so I wouldn’t be too confident in a warmer April, but sometimes the weather pattern can switch dramatically.

CPC April Precipitation Outlook

What about later in the year? If you click through the 3-month forecasts at the CPC website, you will find that the CPC is forecasting a good chance nearly all the country will be above normal during the Summer (the “JJA” period). I sure hope it isn’t as hot this year as last year. Another hot dry year would be bad for food production and no doubt the media will go crazy with “end of the world/disaster” predictions. The possible good news from the CPC predictions is that there is a good chance that precipitation will be above normal in Wisconsin during April, May, and maybe early Summer.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under CPC Outlook, Records, Winter Weather

Even though we had neither El Nino or La Nina to influence our winter weather this year, it seems that the temperatures did follow the trend of the tropical Pacific Ocean surface temps. (Check the latest ENSO discussion) If you remember back to last Summer, there was a point where the temps in the Pacific almost reach weak El Nino status. The temperature did not quite get there and then began to fall through November and continued to fall through December until bottoming out in January. The Pacific ocean temps did not get cold enough for an official La Nina, but it sure seemed like our weather changed right along with the Pacific temperature changes. As has been the case a few times in the past, it seems as though our temperatures reacted (with a few weeks lag time) similar to the upper ocean heat content in the central Pacific. You can see it in this graph. December was about 6 degrees above normal. January was 2 degrees above normal, and February ended up nearly 2 degrees below normal. Our temperature anomalies seemed to follow the same trend as the heat content anomaly in the Pacific.

So now that the upper ocean heat content is increasing a little again, should we expect a warm-up fairly soon? Unfortunately, it does not look like that will happen. We will probably have to wait until April for any significantly warm Spring-like weather. Below normal temps will continue for at least the next week. We will also have some snow today and on Monday of next week to keep the landscape white. With the cool March weather continuing, the question occurred to me as to whether we will have a high temperature of 40 or above during the month of March. Even though we won’t hit 40 over the next week or so, there is a lot of time left in the month so I think we will at least have a couple of days that reach that mark.

A “couple of days” 40 or above would certainly be a lot less than recent history. I took a look at our office records back to 1995. There were only 2 months of March that were even remotely close to not having a 40 degree temperature. In March of 2002 we had only 7 days when the temperature reached 40 or higher. During that year the average high temperature was 5.6 degrees below normal and the average low temps was 3.3 degrees below normal. One of the more notable cold days was March 19th when the high temperature was only 19! The other cold March in recent history was March of 2008. During that year high temps were 6.2 degrees below normal and the low temps averaged 5.1 degrees below normal. In March of 2008 we had just 6 days when the high temperature reached 40 or above. The most notable cold weather was on the 8th when we had a record low of -13!

So it seems 6 days of 40 or above is the (recent) record we are aiming at this year. This year, I am predicting we will have more than one day with a high temperature at 40 or above, but less than 6. What do you think? Leave a comment with your prediction!

Have a nice weekend. Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under ENSO Update, Records, Weather History

For many decades,  weather record books have published 136 degrees F  (58 C) as the highest temperature observed in a normal setting on the planet.  The long standing world hottest temperature record of 136 degrees F from El Azizia, Libya from September 13, 1922 is no more.  A panel from the World Meteorological Organization gave the record a thorough review recently and came to the conclusion that the reading was not valid because of the following:

• potentially flawed thermometer
• probable new and inexperienced observer at the time of the observation
• unrepresentative micro-climate of the observation site
• poor continuity of the extreme to other temperature records
• poor comparison to subsequent temperature values recorded at the site

The thermometer in use at that site was a Bellani-Six thermometer.  It contains both alcohol and mercury, in differing parts of the device along with pivoting metal arms to record the low and high temperatures.  A known flaw of this type of thermometer is that the alcohol can wets the glass and can pass easily between the glass and the mercury, resulting in bad readings.  Also, to an inexperienced observer, it is plausible that they wouldn’t have know which end of the recording pin marks the maximum temperature.  Another potential source of error comes from the log on which the observer wrote the temperature data.  Starting on September 11, 1922, the maximum temperature readings increased dramatically while the minimums stayed within their expected range.  Some of the numbers were also written in the wrong columns on the sheet which points to more uncertainty in the record.  Finally, the thermometer at El Azizia was placed over a heavily tarred concrete pad within a small military fort.  The experts at WMO believe the tarred concrete likely accentuated the high temperature beyond the normal for a desert environment.  Once the instrument shelter was relocated in 1927, only two other times did the temperature ever rise above 50 degrees C, in June of 1928 and August of 1941.  No reading above 46 C was recorded in September in the 48 year history of the new site.

After a bunch of hot debate over a hot number, these all seem like pretty good reasons when taken in total to invalidate the old record high temperature.  So the new official record high Earth surface temperature is 134 degrees F (56.7 C) at Greenland Ranch (Death Valley), CA from July 10, 1913.  The new African temperature extreme is now 131 F (55 C) from Kebili, Tunisia on July 7, 1931.  There you have it.  Either way you look at it, 130 + degrees F is super hot in my book.  I hope I never have to be in that.

Posted under Heat, Records

January 2013 goes down in the books as behaving like a roller coaster with wild up and down temperatures and a few bursts of intense precipitation. We did have a couple of really sharp cold spells but they were fairly brief in nature. We had one record temperature for the month and that was a daily record warm minimum of 33 degrees on the 11th in Wausau. The high temperature that day by the way was 42. Our warmest temperature for the month occurred the next day with 44 degrees. Our coldest temperature in Wausau was -14 on the 22nd. We did have a good deal of wind with that cold snap so wind chill values reached as low as -35 degrees. For the month as a whole, the average high temperature was 25.1 degrees, about 2.0 degrees above normal and the average low was 7.5 degrees, which is a bout 1.5 degrees above normal.

January 2013 actually turned out a bit wetter than normal in our region. Wausau had 1.68″ of rain and melted sleet and snow. That is .66″ above normal. Snowfall was generous as 16.4″ piled up. That is about 2.9″ more than normal. Of course we had the couple of warm and rainy spells that melted a lot of the snowpack in between storms, so the snow depth never got too huge. We had four days in which at least 1.0″ of snow fell (the 18^th, 25^th, 27^th, and 30^th). I guess there is nothing like waiting until the end of the month to pack all the action in! The two biggest snow days were the 27^th with 5.3″ and the 30^th with 5.7″ of accumulation.

If nothing else January was interesting with its many twists and turns. Maybe February will be a bit more stable with more consistent and typical winter weather. Only time will tell.

Posted under Monthly Recap, Records

In a little follow-up note to the previous blog entry detailing  the complexity and confusion that sometimes follows the AGW topic, notice that many record low temps have been occurring in the desert southwest of the U.S. recently. As is usually the case, the cold snap is just due to “the weather pattern”. I have seen some people cry foul in the past, pointing to the fact that every time there is record cold on the planet, it is just due to “normal changes in the weather pattern”, whereas every hot spell with record high temps is evidence of AGW and environmental apocalypse – not just “a change in the weather pattern”. While there is certainly some evidence of bias creeping into research into reporting, the main theme is that over many years and decades, the number of record hot spells is increasing while the number of record cold spells is decreasing. If we would happen to see more cold spells and more new all time record low temps (more than record highs) over a few years time, then we might have to re-evaluate current climate theories involving greenhouse gasses. As is, we are setting new record warm months at a clip 5 times greater than record cold months.

_________________________________________________

Mars as seen by Curiosity

A now a little follow up on a space story that I have been blogging about for a few years now. Did you see that NASA has contracted with Bigelow Aerospace to provide an inflatable module for the ISS? This is great news for all of those who have had dreams to travel in space someday. NASA is the unfortunate victim of budget cuts and with the U.S. trillions in debt and adding exponentially more every year (recently), the chance that NASA will get increased funding is rather slim. Even if they did get some funding, it would most likely be spent on robotic space flight instead of human space flight (which is fine and great for science). It will be up to wealthy private individuals and companies to keep the dream alive and send humans into space. Be sure to follow the likes of  Bigelow, SpaceX, Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, etc… for the latest efforts. If you want be part of a risky space exploration mission, you don’t have to start your own company, or be a billionaire, you could always apply to be part of MarsOne. This is an effort to jump start the colonization of Mars, and will require very adaptable problem-solving people. They also would like to have people who have a deep capacity for self-reflection, because as currently designed, this would be a one way trip in 2023. You are expected to make Mars your home with no guarantee of a return to earth.

_________________________________________________

And finally, another “other-worldly” story that is in need of an update – Lake Vostok, Antarctica (past blog information here). The Russian researchers drilling down to this ancient lake that hasn’t seen the light of day for hundreds of thousands of years claim to have retrived a “clean” ice core of frozen lake water. They will analyze it soon to see if there are any here-to-fore unknown life forms lurking two miles below the ice.

Have a swell Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Arctic climate, Records, Space