May is certainly a  month of warming across Wisconsin.  The average low temperature rises from around 40 at the start of the month to near 50 at the end.  The average high temperature climbs from the lower 60s at month’s start to the lower 70s at month’s end.  The hottest temperature on record in May for Wausau is 104 degrees set back on May 31st, 1934.   The coldest on record is 20 degrees from May 9th, 1947.  That’s a pretty impressive extreme range, 84 degrees.

The normal May precipitation for the Wausau area is 3.48″ with a normal snowfall of 0.20″.  One of the wettest Mays on record for our region was in 1942 when 10.74″ of moisture fell.  One of the driest was May of 1949 when just over 1.0″ fell.

May is a month of heavy gardening and the traditional start of the growing season around here.  We typically have our last frosts of the season around early to mid May in central Wisconsin and late May in northern Wisconsin.  We usually have a round or two of strong to severe thunderstorms in the state and every few years some snow comes our way as well in May.  I always look to May as the bridge between really shaky spring conditions where it can be quite cold, rainy, snowy, and windy to true summer with its day after day of heat and sunshine.  Hope you enjoy the rest of this interesting month.

Posted under Monthly Recap, Records, Seasonal Items, Spring

May is a month when we can usually put the snow shovels away for good and not have to pull them out.  However, it seems like every 5 or 10 years a sneaky snow event shows up in Wisconsin.  For example on May 7th, 2010 the north half of the TV-9 viewing area was dealing with 2 to 4″ of wet, heavy snow.  It caused extensive damage to trees and especially the ginseng crop.  Many of the shades over the top of the crop were ripped down by the heavy snow.

The heaviest May snowfall on record for Wausau proper is 5.5″ which fell on May 2nd, 1935.  The latest data with at least 1″ snowfall for Wausau is May 12th.  We have had trace snowfall amounts as late as May 30th.  That occurred as recently as 1989.

The biggest May snowstorm of record for eastern Wisconsin occurred on May 10th, 1990.  As much as 8″ coated areas just northwest of Milwaukee with up to 6″ up to Green Bay and even Oconto Counties.  Many thousands lost power as the wet snow clung to trees that already had leafed out.  In fact in the city of Waukesha, about 80% of it’s 30,000 trees were damaged or destroyed.  Around 4 million dollars worth of damage occurred throughout the state.  Schools were closed and road plows were busy.  You can read more about this storm from the following link.  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grb&storyid=82851&source=0

Posted under Records, Seasonal Items, Spring, Storms, Weather History

A blog reader asked a question the other day about late snowfalls in Wisconsin – wondering if snow had ever fallen in June. Officially, in Wausau, the answer is no. The latest official snowfall in Wausau occurred on May 30th. It was a trace of snow and it fell in 1989 and way back in 1897. The heaviest well-documented snowfall in Wisconsin was on Memorial Day weekend of 1947 in the southern half of our viewing area. Up to 8.4 inches fell on that weekend in Pine River (Waushara county). You can read a lot more about that snowstorm here in this past blog post.

As far as June goes, I have heard stories about accumulating snow in early June but I have not been able to find any supporting documentation. Does anyone out there have a story about snow in June. Any pictures would be great. Maybe some old newspaper clippings? My grandparents claimed there was a year about a century ago when there was a least a trace of snow every month of the year – here in Wisconsin! I haven’t found any historical records of that , but looking at some of the cold temperature records from the late 1800s and early 1900s, one could not rule it out.

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Also, I wanted to share with you a picture of a great group of folks. These are the StormTrack9 Weather Watchers (most of them, plus some of their significant others). We got together for a party/recognition event this past weekend. These are the people who take the time out of their day to report daily high and low temperatures and precipitation from around the area. They also help out in times of severe weather, letting us know what is going on and what damage has been done in different locations. I salute their efforts and hope that they will continue weather watching many years into the future. For those that were unable to attend, I hope we are able to catch you the next time around.

On a side note, we could use a new weather watcher in the Northwoods. If there is anyone out there reading the blog today that is from Oneida, Vilas, or Forest county, who likes to keep a daily log of the weather, who will probably be at their current locations for at least a couple years into the future, please let me know. You can leave a comment here in the blog or you can email the weather department at weather@waow.com

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Community, Records, Weather History, Winter Weather

We have already discussed the extreme March warmth quite a bit (here and here), but I just had to share one more comprehensive report (PDF) on the record-breaking month, compiled by Roy Eckberg of the National Weather Service in Green Bay. The one interesting fact that I learned from the report, that I had previously overlooked, is that here in Wausau we had our earliest ever 60 degree low temperature. It occurred on March 21st. The previous record for earliest 60 degree low temperature was April 16th.

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Since I started out with a follow-up, I might as well stick with the theme and update you on a few other trends I have been following in the weather blog. In the realm of our transportation and pollution problems many people have hopes for electric vehicles and even self-driving (or auto-pilot) cars to take over the roads. I have covered the self-driving car story for a couple of years now (“Driverless Cars in Nevada“, “Car-Take Me To Work“, “Driverless cars again”) and I am surprised by the rapid progress and the lack of mainstream culture acknowledgement at the same time. Here is an article that claims auto-pilot cars are here and ready to go (no doubt politicians and lawyers are still standing in the way). In tests, the cars have performed amazingly, even in heavy traffic. You won’t see them in showrooms anytime soon though because they are not yet economical. I was interested to learn that anyone who purchases and uses a driverless car in Nevada must post a $1 million to $3 million insurance bond. Considering that the auto-pilot cars have not yet been involved in any accidents and human drivers kill 1.2 million people every year around the world, you would think the insurance would be higher for human drivers. Once driverless cars are on the road, I am sure it will turn the other way. Insurance for a human driver will end up costing a lot more.

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Continuing with ground-breaking technology that is flying under the radar, how about quantum computing. This is a field that not many people understand and thus has the potential to be very disruptive. There is one company in the world that claims to be performing a special type of quantum computing and here is an update on their efforts.

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In what might seem like science fiction instead of science fact, progress continues in the pursuit of cloaking materials (just like what someone might find in Star Trek of Harry Potter). One of the pioneers of cloaking – Duke University – can now create holograms in the infrared range of the electromagnetic spectrum, using similar (meta)materials that are used in cloaking. Not to be outdone, researchers in France have created a method of thermal cloaking – or “hiding heat”. Even magnetic fields are being manipulated to hide objects. It is enough to make your head spin.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Monthly Recap, Records, Technology

I just crunched the numbers and this March turned out as extraordinary as we thought it might several weeks ago.  In fact it was the warmest on record in Wausau and much of the Midwest region for that matter.  Accurate temperature record generally date back to around 1880 in our area. 

In Wausau, the average high in March 2012 was 55.3 degrees which is 15.8 degrees above normal.  The average low was 36.3 degrees which is also 15.8 degrees above normal.  The mean temperature for the month was 45.8 degrees.  This eclipses March of 1910 for the record warmest mean when we had 43.3 degrees.  I can’t tell you how rare it is to break the all time temperature record for a month by almost 3 degrees.  Usually if you were to do it, you would squeak by by a degree.  Of course what really put us over the top was the middle portion of the month when record  high temperatures were established on 11 of 13 days in Wausau.

As far as precipitation goes, it was dry.  We had 1.13″ of rain or melted snow in Wausau which is .63″ below normal.  We picked up just 1.6″ of snow, which is 8.4″ below normal.  The lack of moisture did not stop fruit trees and certain flowers from blooming out a good month early.

WHY IT STAYED SO COOL SATURDAY?

We were hoping temperatures might climb up into the lower 60s Saturday but a stubborn layer of low level moisture, stratus clouds, and fog refused to move out.  We had a temperature inversion in place several thousand feet aloft that helped trap the moisture and clouds.  Plus we had southeast winds which this time of the year tend to drag and stable, cool, moist marine air off the cool Great Lakes.  That did not help the situation either.    Below you will see the surface observation map around 4 p.m. Saturday.   The red numbers on the map were the current temperatures.  There was an amazing spread from the lower 40s in Wisconsin to near 90 degrees in eastern Nebraska and 80s in South Dakota.  Of course they had the sunshine out and a wind direction off the Plains helping to drive the warm air aloft down to the surface.  Hopefully we will tap into some of that warmth and sunshine Sunday.

Posted under forecast, Monthly Recap, Records, Seasonal Items

On Wednesday we had another record-breaking day across northcentral Wisconsin. That makes 8 record highs in a row and 10 record highs during the last 12 days. Today will probably be the end of the record streak as more clouds and a few light showers are moving through the area. Even though the record highs are probably done, temps will remain well above normal in the 50s and 60s through the end of the month and that means we will very likely set the record for the warmest March ever (in Wausau). The old record for the warmest March occurred in 1910 when the average high temperature was 43.3. So far this year the average temperature for the month is 45.1. The way things look now, the average (mean) temperature could rise up to around 50 before the month is done, so we will likely beat the old record by a few degrees. It is interesting to note that the old record is from a time period which was more known for record lows than record highs. It goes to show that the weather can be surprising. There was a record warm March over a 100 years ago when the climate was cooler. I suppose we could see some record cold at some point in the near future, even though the climate is warmer now. Just look at what happened in central Europe this past Winter.

Back to the topic at hand, the record warm March. Some people have been wondering if the very warm March (and very mild Winter) will lead to a blisteringly hot Summer. In order to find out, I took a look back at the weather records. We have some hand written records that go back to the mid 1970s here at the weather office. They are good for seeing the general trends for different months and years, so I “eye-balled” the highs and lows for months of March for the past 40 years. Then I browsed through the May through August time periods to see if any of those months were hot during the same years as the “hot” March. There were 12 above normal months of March in our records and only two of them were followed by what I would call a “hot” Summer. In 1987, the very warm March was followed by a May, June, and July that were 5 degrees above normal. In 1995, the warm March was followed by a hot Summer. As I mentioned earlier this week, 1995 was the year when we had 9 days in a row of 90 degree weather in the middle of June and it was the last year that we officially experienced 100 degrees in Wausau. The temp rose up to 102 for one day in the middle of July.

There were 3 different warm months of March that were followed by a little above normal summertime temps. There were 4 warm months of March followed by normal or below normal Summer temps. There were three other years where a warm March was followed by at least one hot month later in the Summer, but overall temps were close to normal the rest of the time. So as a rough estimate, it would seem that there would be about a 50/50 chance of having some hot weather later in the year when we have a “hot” March.

For a more rigorous calculation I looked back at the top 20 warmest months of March we have in the record books for Wausau (can be viewed in the Wausau weather book here). I compared these to the top 20 warmest months of May, June, July, and August. It turns out that 10 of the top 20 warm months of March were followed by at least one month later in the warm season (May through August) that was also in the top 20 for warmth.

Some examples: The current record-holder for the warmest March ever is 1910. During that year we also had the 14th warmest June and the 18th warmest July. More recently in 2000 we noted the 2nd warmest March in Wausau and that same year we had the 20th warmest May and the 19th warmest August. In 1995 we had the 15th warmest March and that was followed by the 3rd warmest June and the 4th warmest August.

Using the monthly records we once again find that about 50% of the time, a very warm March is followed by some hot (above normal) weather later in the Summer. 50/50. It figures, right? Many people remark that forecasting the weather is like flipping a coin. It really isn’t but in this case the statistics just happen to fall 50/50. So what do I think? I am going to err on the warm side for the Summer forecast. I think one or two of the months during the period from May through August will find their way into the top 20. Officially, the CPC forecasts that we discussed earlier this week are not picking up any direction toward warmer or colder temps, putting us in the “equal chances” for either or. I think the odds are a little higher that we will have continued warmer than normal conditions at some point during the May through August time period because the general global trend has been warmer over the past few decades. The ocean temps are warmer. The ice in the arctic is thinner. These things matter, and I think tilt the odds toward warmer weather here in Wisconsin as well.

Another thing that will be interesting to see is if March will be warmer than some other months this year. The mean temp for April is 44 and for May it is 57. If for some reason we end up with a very cool pattern in May, it is conceivable that the mean temperature could be as low as 50 which would put it on par with March. There have been 10 different months of May in Wausau that have had a mean temp around 50 or lower.

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And now for something completely different. Have you seen the Human BirdWings video? It is stirring up a bunch of controversy. Is it an Internet fake? Has the person actually achieved flight by flapping wings? You can read about the effort a little more in depth here. Seeing is believing, except on the Internet. If I saw it in person, then I would believe it. Since I have not seen it in person, I don’t yet. A couple of interesting points about the physics of the situation: some people have calculated that it might be possible with the motors he used combined with human power AND a 10 to 15 mph head wind. The flight would be possible based on energy calculations alone. I didn’t notice a whole lot of wind in the video. Also, it would be difficult to stand still in a 10 to 15 mph wind with such large wings attached to your body. At 15 mph, you might even be knocked over. Of course, birds can fly with no wind. If he is using correct flapping motion, then there would not be as much need for a head wind.

Another aspect that hints toward fake is that the video is dis-jointed. For such a spectacular achievement, you would think they would have recorded the entire flight from different angles and posted the entire videos. You would think they would have brought more witnesses. They apparently achieved the flight in a public park in the middle of a city in Europe. How come no one else was around and is now talking about it, posting pictures on facebook and such?

In the end, I hope it is real. The set-up doesn’t look too expensive. It would be fun to try it out. What do you think?

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Heat, Records, Technology

Last week Tony did a good job putting the current warm spell into perspective and now we have a few more days of data to help with that endeavor. Since March 10th we have recorded 8 record high temps (that is 8 out of the last 10 days). We have noted record highs for the last 6 days in a row and will likely have 2 more before the record-breaking ends. So we will end up with record high temps on 10 of the 12 days between March 10th and March 21st. We will also have a stretch of 8 days in a row with record high temps.

Just going by memory and the historical data I have easily on hand here at the weather office, there are only two or three other record warm spells that can compare to this one. In 2000, we had a spell of record high temps from late February through early March when we had 12 record high over the course of 16 days. The records were generally about 25 to 30 degrees above normal with a couple of days hitting the 70s. By comparison, the records during this spell have been around 35 degrees above normal on at least 5 of the days, so it is a bit more extreme, even if we don’t quite reach the same number of records as back in 2000.

Another famous record setting spell of hot weather occurred back in 1936. From July 7th through July 15th we had 9 days in a row of record high temperatures. The records were all in the upper 90s or the 100s. If I had access to more detailed daily reports (not just the record highs), then we might find that the hot spell was a little longer, just not record-breaking. Those record temperatures were about 20 to 25 degrees above normal, so while those days were blazingly hot, they were not as far above normal as we are experiencing now.

Another long hot spell that I remember is from June of 1995. During that year we had 9 days in a row (from the 17th to the 25th) with highs temps in the 90s (preceded by a couple of days in the upper 80s). It was a remarkable hot spell with temps 15 to 20 degrees above normal but only three of the days were records.

So there are a few comparable long record-breaking warm spells in our history but the current one ranks near the top in terms of duration and the degree above normal. Also, most of the long record spells are from more recent times, the 1990s and 2000s. Outside of the 1930s dustbowl years, when there were record-high temps nearly every year, the general pattern has been for warmer weather throughout the 1900s and into the 2000s. This makes sense from the long-term perspective in that we were just emerging from the little ice age in the 1800s and early 1900s. One would expect the climate to warm-up. It also fits fairly well with the modern anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory. One warm spell does not conclusively prove anything, but it does add to the body of evidence. It adds to the average trend and if temps continue to climb, then it adds to the validity of AGW theory.

So what is in the future? I could say for sure what is in store for decades to come because of the non-linear nature of society and the climate, but for the relatively short term Tony blogged about the latest CPC monthly outlook yesterday. It looks like a good chance that April will be above normal as well. If you take a look a little further into the year (in the products section of the CPC), the CPC models do not detect a significant trend either way (cooler or warmer than normal) from May all the way through the Summer. I am hoping things do not stay too far above normal all the way through the Summer. Many days in a row of hot a humid weather can be just as unbearable as below zero temps in the Winter.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Heat, Records

WATCH THE VIDEO HERE! 

It’s been a fairly unbelievable stretch of weather the past few days.  In the past nine days, Wausau has recorded 10 new record high temperatures.  Six have come as new record daytime highs (March 10^th, 11^th, 14^th, 15^th, 16^th, 17^th, 18^th) and three have come as record high overnight low readings (March 12^th, 15^th, 17^th). 

One of the contributing causes for the warm weather we’ve seen is the position of the jet stream.  At the time of this writing there is an enormous trough or downward plunge over the western United States.  And at the very same time there is an enormous ridge or upward shooting branch of the stream over the eastern United States.  The pattern has been stubborn and very slow to change. 

With cold air shooting southward and warm air blasting northward, the western United States has seen cold temperatures, rain and snow while the east has been setting record high temperature readings for days on end.  In fact on Sunday the higher elevations of northern Arizona picked up a foot of snow while Wausau recorded a fifth consecutive record high temperature. 

When the jet stream takes on such a unique shape some very interesting temperature readings can be recorded.   For fun I thought it would be interesting to compare where the numbers were across the country.  And Wausaustacks up near the top! 

Sunday saw temperatures reach 57 degrees inSan Diego, California. Los Angeles, California hit 58 degrees. Phoenix, Arizona only warmed to 64 degrees Sunday afternoon.  Now here’s where it gets fun: El Paso,Texas saw a daytime high of 78 degrees, the same reading recorded here in Wauasu, good for a new record high.

It’s not too often we out-warm Phoenix.  But when we do, it sure is fun to have bragging rights, and as evidenced by the jet stream pattern, meteorologically interesting to investigate as well!

Posted under Environment, new media, Records, Seasonal Items, Spring, Weather History, Weather NEws

First off, the comment section should be working again. For those of you reading today, maybe make a little test comment to say hi or tell your favorite joke you have heard recently. If things aren’t working, we will take another whack at the problem.

Most everyone is raving about the recent record warmth, which is understandable, just remember that it can come with some negative consequences as well. Due to the persistent warmth, the maple syrup harvest will likely be quite poor this year. Growers of fruit trees here in Wisconsin and other parts of the country could experience a poor growing season if we end up with some hard frost later this month or in April. The problem is that the cherry trees (and probably some apple trees as well) are getting buds and might flower early. The flowers are highly susceptible to frost. If the buds or blossoms are killed off by frost, some crops could be decimated. Recent research has also shown a negative effect on some animals. Butterfly populations in the Rocky Mountain states have declined in recent years because of an earlier start to the growing season.

Cherry Blossoms

It seems they have the same problem that we might encounter this year. When mountain flowers bloom too early, they can be killed by a hard frost. Then when the butterflies hatch, they do not have as much food to support their life cycle. There is another negative aspect of current heat waves which I won’t recap here but you can find in this past blog post.

So continue to enjoy the warm weather but remember that from a natural perspective, it would be much better if our current warm spell was producing high temps around 45 or 50, instead of 60s and 70s. Speaking of 70s, we will probably not have 70s in most of the area again until this weekend. High temperatures today and tomorrow will likely be in the mid to upper 60s. This is still warm enough to potentially break some records, it will just not feel as much like Summer. The record high in Wausau today is 65 and the record high tomorrow is 68. Right now I am forecast highs of 66 and 68 respectively.

It will feel a lot more like Summer again over the weekend, not only becuase high temps will likely reach the low to mid 70s, but because the humidity will be rising as well. The increasing dewpoints will lead to a chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from Saturday all the way through the middle of next week, but it should not be enough rain (or last long enough) on any particular day to ruin your outdoor plans. We should break some record high temps on Saturday and Sunday but on Monday it will be iffy as the record is 73. Here are the records highs that were broken yesterday with the old record in parentheses.

• Wisconsin Rapids 77 (72)
• Wausau 75 (67)
• Stevens Point 75 (67)
• Marshfield 75 (65)
• Merrill 72 (65)
• Antigo 72 (64)
• Rhinelander 71 (62)

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Earlier this week I was mentioning how efficiency gains do not always translate into a better environment and less pollution, because as energy becomes cheaper we tend to use more of it…a lot more. As we mature further into the information age, I think efficiency gains will produce more positive results because we won’t have as much need to move large masses of product and people around the globe.

Therefore, it is a good sign that solar power continues to get cheaper by the day. Some would say a lot of it has to do with a glut of solar panels on the market and/or subsidy support from the Chinese government, but there is also a lot of technological innovation going on. It might take a while for green energy technologies to have an impact on pollution levels but we are moving in the right direction rather fast.

A recent study has suggested that technological advances should allow manufacturers to bring the price of solar panels (and solar generated electricity) down to levels comparable with coal before the end of this decade. This was not considered remotely possible just 5 or 10 years ago, but that is how far we have advanced.

Several companies are making this happen with different approaches. One method involves using less silicon to make the panels.

Twin Creeks thin solar panel

Current manufacturing for silicon solar panels wastes a lot of silicon. Ampulse is using a new vapor deposition method to create thin silicon cells from the “bottom up” and Twin Creeks has developed a way to “peel” thin layers of silicon off of bulk silicon (ingots/blocks). I have not seen any numbers as to the efficiency of the related products but they should become available soon as these two companies license their methods to other producers. If the thin silicon wafers work as promised, solar panels could come down in price to 50 cents per watt or less.

Other more speculative research has involved the use of silicon nanoshells to absorb more light from the sun, thus making solar panels more efficient. Also, computer simulations at MIT have shown the potential for precisely manufactured metamaterials that have ridges and valleys on their surface could absorb more wavelengths of light. In the realm of solar thermal power, a company called Halotechnics is developing newer materials that will allow thermal plants to operate at a higher temperature. This would increase the efficiency solar thermal plants which are already more efficient than photovoltaics.

In other great news, Solar Frontier is dramatically expanding its operations in Japan. They of course have basically shut down their nuclear power plants and are looking for alternatives. Hopefully solar power will fill more of the need going forward. Also, UCLA scientists have just broken a world record efficiency at 10.6% for cheap-to-produce tandem solar cells.

In not so good news, Abound Solar is starting to lay off employees and First Solar is talking about not opening some of its new manufacturing facilites. It is a tough marketplace and not all companies will thrive.

The most disturbing news in solar energy is that installation and permitting costs continue to be stubbornly high. At least some web-centric entrepreneurs are trying to reduce some of these costs. Even company Eight19 is battling against government permitting and installation costs in trying to sell very cheap thin film solar panels in developing countries. I would expect someone to have come up with a cheaper way to install solar panels by now, but I suppose it quite often involves work on steep roofs and this can be complicated. As far as permitting goes, it is almost unconscionable that governments are getting in the way of solar adoption. If they want more alternative energy, they should keep their bureaucrats and regulations under control.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologists Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Heat, Records, Spring

Sam Champion of Good Morning America mentioned that there have been 1,000 new daily record high temps in the U.S. so far this month of March. Here in Northcental Wisconsin we have added a few to that total. If you remember, over the weekend there were record highs on Saturday and Sunday. We will likely break some more record over the next few days. We might end up with 7 or 8 records during this early March period and above normal temps will likely stick with us next week as well. Here are the record highs for Wausau over the next few days:

• Today, March 14th: 67 (1995)
• Thursday, March 15th: 65 (1995)
• Friday, March 16th: 68 (1927)
• Saturday, March 17th: 68 (1966)
• Sunday, March 18th: 62 (2010)

Right now, the only record I am not forecasting to be broken is on Friday. I am forecasting a tie right now with a high of 68. Over the weekend and early next week high temps should continue to hover around 70. What will make it feel even more like Summer over the weekend is increasing humidity. There will also be a slight chance of showers or and isolated thunderstorm from Saturday through Monday.

Posted under Records, Spring, Weather NEws