After 22 months of testing, NOAA started using a sophisticated new short term weather forecast model.  The Rapid Refresh Model (RAP) for short, will improve predictions of quickly developing severe weather situations such as thunderstorms, winter storms, and aviation hazards like turbulence.  It replaces an older model called Rapid Update Cycle (RUC).

RAP was developed by NOAA’s Earth System Research Lab in Boulder, CO and the National Centers for Environmental Predicton in Camp Springs, MD.  It updates every hour producing a fresh forecasting extending 18 hours over most of North America.  The U.S. is the only country in the world to routinely update a weather forecast model every 1 hour with the latest observations from ground and satellite based sensors, along with radar, ships, and aircraft.

Forecast skill has improved using the RAP model for most variables including wind and precipitation.  For example the RAP did a better job of showing where a large area of extreme rainfall would occur last June over the middle of the country.  Aviation interests in Alaska are seeing improvement to flying safety using this model.  This is especially important to that state because there are numerous sections of Alaska only accessible by airplane.

You can learn more about the RAP model and other forecasting issues from the following link.  http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120501_rapmodel.html

Posted under forecast, Science, Severe Weather, Technology, Weather NEws

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) released its Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) on 28 March.  You can read the the full press release from the following link.  http://ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_launch_media_advisory.pdf

The report was authored by 220 scientists from 62 counties around the world.  It was based off of hundreds of studies from across the globe that have been peer-reviewed at least 2 to 3 times.  Some of the major points in the press release regarding climate change over the coming decades include.

• Heat waves will likely increase in frequency, duration, and intensity.
• Sea levels will very likely continue rising, causing increased coastal flooding.
• Heavy precipitation events will likely to increase in frequency especially in higher latitudes and tropical regions during the summer and in northern mid latitudes during the winter.
• It is somewhat probable that droughts will increase in duration and intensity especially in central and southern Europe, the Mediterranean Area, North America, Central America, Mexico, northeast Brazil, and Southern Africa.
• It is extremely likely that the frequency of daily record high temperatures will increase and daily record low temperatures will decrease across the globe.
• It is likely that economic losses from climate-related disasters will increase.  (Part of this is due to greater population with time living in risky areas).

You can read the full 600 page IPCC report here.  Good luck!  http://ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_launch_media_advisory.pdf

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Education, Heat, International Weather, Natural Disasters, Science, Weather NEws, World Weather

The rumors have been flying for the past few years that December 2012 will be the end of the world.  A lot of the hysteria has been fueled by the so called Mayan calendar reaching the end of its cycle at that point.  Throw  in the wacky weather and climate of the past few years, unprecedented  March heat, earthquakes in Clintonville, WI, terrible world economies, and a movie dealing with Earth’s demise, “2012″, and you have all you need to stir up a frenzy.

Well some NASA folks have set out to debunk all the end of the world hysteria.  They have put together a nice article that basically says there is no science, no evidence, and no facts to support the claim that 2012 is the end.  They dive into the following items and explain why we should not be overly concerned about them for this year.

• Planetary alignment
• Magnetic pole shifts
• Planets or brown dwarfs approaching Earth
• Meteors, comets, and asteroids
• Giant solar storms
• Super novas
• Super volcanoes
• Mayan calendar

Well if you are worried that our days are numbered, please check out this NASA link.  It should give you a bit of reassurance if nothing else.   http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.html

Posted under astronomy, Natural Disasters, Science, World Weather

Record warmth on Sunday

Click here to view the video!

The weekend of March 10-11 recorded 19 new record high temperature readings across Northcentral and Northeastern Wisconsin, according to data released by the National Weather Service.

Seven records were set on Sat. Mar. 10 while 12 were recorded on Sun. Mar. 11. 

The warmest reading for the weekend was in Wisconsin Rapids.  The city hit 67 degrees on Sunday breaking the old record of 62 degrees set in 2006.

Wisconsin Rapids was also the warmest community on Saturday hitting 65 degrees.  That reading beat the previous record of 61 degrees recorded in 1977.    

Wausau saw new high temperature records on both days.  On Saturday the city reached 61 degrees beating the previous record of 56 degrees from 1977.  Sunday afternoon saw temperatures reach 63 degrees, bypassing the earlier record holder of 55 degrees recorded in 1995. 

Marshfield, Oshkosh and Manitowoc were all able to reach 65 degrees on Sunday afternoon setting new records for each community. 

The oldest record broken during the weekend was from Mar. 11, 1973.  Green Bay reached a high of 63 degrees on Sunday, edging out its previous record for the date by one degree.

Three records were broken in the Northwoods.  Antigo reached 59 degrees breaking the old record of 55 degrees set in 1977.  Merrill warmed to 61 degrees eclipsing the previous record of 58 degrees also set in 1977.  Rhinelander beat its previous record high of 58 degrees recorded in both 1977 and 1995.  The city reached 59 degrees on Sunday afternoon.

To see the data straight from the NWS, follow this link: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=grb&product=rer&issuedby=GRB&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

Posted under Environment, Heat, Nature, Records, Science, Seasonal Items, Spring, Weather History, Weather NEws

Aside from a handful of short cold snaps and brief bouts of a few inches of snow at a time, this winter has proven to be fairly tame.  Especially when compared with last year’s winter that provided much of the United States with considerable snowfall. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has just released two images showing just how striking the difference has been in terms of snow depth.  In the image below, you’re looking at the continental United States.  Areas shaded in a taupe-peach color indicate areas that are dealing with nearly 40 less inches of snow compared to the winter of 2010-2011.  Areas in the blue color are places with nearly 40 more inches of snow. 

The top image illustrates the comparison in December, the lower in early February. 

What a difference!  We can see it has been a unique winter anecdotally, but when you look at the numbers and see how widespread the difference has been, it really is quite striking! 

To see the entire article from NOAA, follow this link: http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/image/2012/fierce-2010-2011-winter-dwarfs-this-seasons-snowfall

Image from NOAA.

Posted under Arctic climate, Environment, forecast, Nature, new media, Science, Seasonal Items, Snow Totals, Weather History, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

Satellites from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration helped rescue 207 people in 2011 across the United States and surrounding waters.  The communications they provide are the key.  Of the 207 rescues, 122 were on water, 14 involved aviation, and 71 were land situations.  Of the land events, Alaska had the most with 39 followed by Florida with 11 and California with 8.

Rescue Helicopter: credit (NOAA)

The NOAA satellites are integrated into an international search and rescue satellite aided tracking system called COSPAS-SARSAT.  Since 1982 this system has supported 30,000 rescues worldwide.  You can read much more about it at the NOAA link here.  http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120123_sarsatrescues.html

credit: (NOAA)

Posted under Community, Natural Disasters, Science, Technology, Weather NEws

With the first week of February upon us the annual tradition of Groundhog Day has once again come and gone.  You’ve likely heard of the famous Punxsutawney Phil, who based on seeing his shadow or not can “predict” how much longer the winter season will last. 

Given the rather bizarre weather we have seen this season, many people are asking where winter has been all year.  We’ve seen temperatures quite untypical for February.  Snow cover is low or in many places around Wisconsin, non existent.  Snowmobilers are frustrated while those who could do without the cold and snow are enjoying every minute. 

While we bask in the warmth of temps that are nearly twice as warm as the typically are this time of year, the National Weather Service has release an  interesting article about the history and accuracy of Punxsutawney Phil and Groundhog Day as a whole. 

To have a look at this interesting article, follow this link to the National Weather Service: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/special-reports/groundhog-day.php 

Happy reading, and happy Groundhog Day!

Posted under Ecology, Education, Environment, forecast, Nature, Records, Recreation & Sports, Science, Seasonal Items, Spring, Weather History, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

The plane used by NOAA to study hurricanes, and now winter storms. Image from NOAA.

A Gulfstream twin-engine turbo jet used to study hurricanes will be put to work to help forecast winter storms this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  

In an article published Jan. 12^th, NOAA says the jet will be flown around the North Pacific Ocean in January and February.  It will deploy sensors to “collect information where the jet stream and moisture from the ocean interact and breed potentially powerful winter storms that impact North America several days later.”

On board the aircraft meteorologists will be looking at a host of atmospheric conditions.  Included in their laundry list are wind, pressure, temperature and humidity levels.

In the article, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Capt. Barry Choy says that comparing the information gathered with the sensors with satellite imagery “significantly enhance[s] four-to-seven day winter weather forecasts.” 

NOAA uses the plane to study hurricanes during the late summer and fall seasons.  Its selected flight path will be to the east and west of Hawa’ii where the plane is currently stationed and as far north as Alaska. 

To read the article in its entirety and to see photos, log on to: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120111_g4hawaii.html

Posted under Arctic climate, Environment, forecast, Hurricanes, International Weather, Nature, new media, Oceans, Science, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Storms, Weather and Health, Weather History, Weather NEws, World Weather

Lightning image from the National Weather Service

Improved education on the dangers of and safety precautions associated with lightning has given 2011 the lowest number of lightning deaths recorded in the United States, according to the National Weather Service.

Of the 26 people killed by lightning in the United States and Territories, one was in Wisconsin.  According to NWS statistics, McKenzie Klar an 11-year old camping in Burnett County this past July was killed after she was struck by lightning when under a tree.

Both Utah and Michigan recorded three deaths, while the remaining fatalities were reported in Montana, South Dakota, Colorado, Kansas, Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Florida and Guam.   

The majority of the deaths were reported in late summer and early fall with July seeing the most.  Nine people were killed by lightning that month, but that number is down considerably from the 16 that is reported average amount.       

The 2011 totals beat the previous record low amount of fatalities by two since 2008.

To see the statistical breakdown of the numbers, check out this website: HERE.

And to see the complete article from the National Weather Service for yourself, check out this website: HERE.

Posted under Environment, Nature, Records, Recreation & Sports, Science, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Storms, Summer, Weather and Health, Weather History, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

Yesterday I mentioned some of the science and weather themes I will be keeping track of in 2012, and I will continue with that today. But before getting into today’s themes, I want to again hearken back to the metrics of “growth” that I have been harping on. Yesterday I mentioned once again that happiness should be a part of what we consider “socio-economic growth”. For example, I would be quite happy with a new medical technology that improved the health of my aging parents or myself.

Huge U.S. Freeway

It would make me a lot more happy than seeing another strip mall and parking lot erected on the outskirts of town. I would consider better health and more happiness to be good metrics of how we are doing as a society. Some researchers have recently found the same thing in regards to happiness. Health seems to correlate most strongly with happiness. I suggest instead of building more 8-lane freeways and expansive cookie-cutter sub-divisions, we should focus more on medical technology that will extend our healthy lives. 

Now on to some other themes continue to appear in the blog.

Coal Power in China

One of the most common themes in my blog entries is the contrast between the possible threat of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and the hopes of technological progress. This subject could be even “hotter” in 2012 as technological progress is not slowing down, and a warm start to the year, potential continuing drought in the southern U.S., and increasing carbon emissions from China and India will drive a lot of angst in the climatology and environmentalist communities. So there should be plenty to talk about. Already this holiday season, there was an record all time high temperature set at the south pole on Christmas Day. The temperature was 9.9 degrees. The records go back to 1957. Besides potential weather machinations driving angst in some quarters, the fact that India is not going to sign any new climate treaties and that China is planning to build one of the biggest coal-fired power plants in the world will give a lot of people reason to worry.

On the positive side of things, even though computing (data centers) continue to take up more of the world’s power, computing efficiency is currently following Moore’s law and we should expect more efficient computer chips to become more prevalent in 2012. Increasing computer presence in cars (while potentially having some downsides) has the potential to dramatically change transportation in the western world, making it more efficient with less pollution. In addition, my favorite alternative energy – solar power – while taking some significant lumps in 2011, is still progressing nicely. Check out the start-up Natcore and their three new technologies that could increase efficiency and reduce manufacturing costs.

No doubt the positive and negative stories will continue to arrive fast and furious in 2012.

I will also continue to follow up on some older stories that continue to evolve or are in need of updates including (but not limited to) a few exciting space exploration milestones coming up this year, LED lighting, and cloaking.

In the coolest new technology category of cloaking, a recent paper has described a way to make it more practical for large scale production. It involves joining many small tiles.

In LED lighting, I expect more $10 or less bulbs to arrive in 2012, but no new news recently in this regard.

In space exploration I will be closely watching the progress and landing of the latest Mars rover Opportunity. It is scheduled to land on Mars in August. I will also continue to provide short updates on commercial/private spaceflight. Companies such as Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, SpaceX, and Bigelow Aerospace should hit some major milestones this year. Also don’t forget that the Lunar X-prize is still in heated competition.

Have a fine Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Records, Science, Space, Technology