As greenhouse gas induced warming of the climate continues, the water cycle will be changing across the globe.  This is the conclusion of a recent study led by William Lau of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland.  He and his team used 14 different climate models to to simulate 140-year spans that ingested varying levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.  The basic findings are that for every 1 degree F temperature rise across the world, heavy rain events will increase by 3.9%.  Meanwhile moderate rain events will decrease by 1.4%.  Also prolonged droughts will increase by 2.6% for the same 1 degree temperature rise caused by increased carbon dioxide.  Light rain events are projected to climb by 1%.

The heavy rain events are forecast to increase the most in tropical zones especially in the Pacific Basin and Asian monsoon regions.  On the other hand the more prolonged droughts should especially impact the southwest U.S., northern Africa, northwest Australia, coastal Central America, and Brazil.

The decrease in moderate rain events is troubling since that is the type of rain that is most beneficial to crops and other plant life.

You can read more about this study from the following link.  http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/wetter-wet.html

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Science

With a good 10″ of compacted, hard snow covering the landscape yet in parts of our area you may be wondering what type of weather would make it melt the fastest.  Well the obvious answer is really warm and sunny weather.  However it can also melt at an accelerated rate when the air is mild and humid.  So for example a day where it is foggy and 50 degrees would probably erase somewhat more snow than just a cloudy and 50 degree day.  The reasoning behind this has to do with the energy tied up in the phase changes of water molecules.

On humid days, the flow of water vapor molecules toward the snow on the ground is greater than the flow away from the snow.  In this scenario, extra water vapor molecules get captured on the snow surfaces.  When the water vapor molecules condense upon contact with the colder snow, large amounts of latent heat are released.  In fact each condensing water vapor molecule gives up enough energy to convert seven ice crystal water molecules into liquid water molecules.  This really speeds up the melting process.  So I guess the bottom line is while humid, damp, dreary spring days can be a bummer psychologically, they definitely have a role in helping to melt snow.

According to the NOAA map below, north central Wisconsin still has about 2 to 5″ of liquid water tied up in the snow cover as of April 1st.  The greatest amounts are in the northern portion of the area.  The darker blues indicate amounts over 4″ of liquid from Rib Lake to Crandon, north up toward Eagle River and Minocqua.  There could be up to 6 or 7″ of water in the snow yet around the Hurley area in in portions of Upper Michigan.  That is still quite a bit.  We will definitely have to watch out for any major warmups and heavy rain events coming up.  They both could easily lead to fairly significant flooding.  I know from the rain storm this past Saturday, there is already a fair amount of low-land flooding occurring in rural areas across central Wisconsin.

Posted under Flooding, Science, snow, Spring

Posted under Education, Rainfall Reports, Science, snow, Technology

A couple of really bad “science” stories have hit the media recently. One involves liability and the other dishes out mostly propaganda.

Perhaps you already heard about this one involving the liability of scientists. Seismologists in Italy were found guily of manslaughter for inaccurately predicting when an eartquake would strike. They were found guilty even though there was credible evidence that these scientists were pressured by superiors to produce a specific forecast and thousands of scientists around the world wrote letters of support on their behalf. First of all, earthquake forecasting is just that – it is forecasting – much like weather forecasting. Scientists look at the data, calculate what might happen, and issue a forecast that represents or indicates some level of confidence. This is a terrible legal precedent and going forward I would not want to be involved in any forecasting of anything in Italy.

Lawsuits of this nature have been tried a couple of times in regards to weather forecasting – a couple of times here in the U.S. and in some foreign countries. In those cases, the lawsuits were thrown out, thankfully, because it was understood that there is no guarantee that comes with the forecast. It reminds me of the snarky comment I sometimes hear that meteorologists are the only people who “can be wrong 50% of the time” (some people say “most of the time”) and still have a job. First of all, broadcast meteorologists do get fired if they do a poor job. It is just an old wives tale that meteorologists can be “wrong most of the time” and still keep their job. Secondly, everyone is wrong some of the time. Whether in our daily lives or any job one might be doing, we have to deal with uncertainty. We all make little “forecasts” everyday in order to plan for the future, whether it be figuring the best route to work through heavy traffic or deciding the direction a business might take. We are all wrong some of the time and every errant forecast has some sort-of negative side effect, yet we are not fired for every little misstep. If we were all right all the time, we would all be billionaires or would be ruling the world. The IPCC is not held criminally accountable for poor climate forecasts. Military planners are sent to the Brigg for every error on the battlefield. These Italian seismologists should not be guilty of manslaughter.

Drilling For Oil

The other ”media release” was centered around the oil and gas industry. The Union of Concerned Scientists (although maybe this time around they should be called political scientists), produced a puff piece about how 66% of the money you pay at the pump “goes into the pockets of the oil companies”. They rely upon the economic ignorance and natural envy of people in order to try to make some environmental point. You are supposed to read their press release study and be hopping mad at the oil companies. I think they deliberately did not talk about the difference between profits and revenue in order to confuse people and make them angry. In the oil business, Exxon might be the most valuable company in the world right now (essentially, because they produce the most valuable product in the world…right now), but they are not the most profitable. Their profit margin was only a little over 7% in 2012. Most of Exxon’s profits come from refining and making specialized petroleum products. It is typical that the big oil companies only make 2 to 4 cents PROFIT per gallon of gas. It costs a lot of money to get your gas from the ground to the pump. If it was easy and cheap, we would all just drill for our own oil. So 66% of what you pay at the pump goes into the “pockets of the oil companies” but Exxon only makes a profit of 1% or less on gas and a bit over 7% overall (last year)

Compare Exxon to Apple. Apple had a HUGE profit margin between 25 and 30% during 2012. Apple’s products are over-priced yet people willingly pay. Apple uses sophisticated methods to avoid paying U.S. taxes, yet they are not considered “evil” like the oil companies. Apple could cut the price of their (very high quality) products by 25% and still make a profit. Wouldn’t that be nice. Complaining about paying money for gas is like complaining about paying money for your phone, or for your car, or a refrigerator. All of the companies that make the products we use to live, charge money for their products and they need to make a profit. This basic economic fact seems to have escaped the Union of Concerned Scientists.

If you don’t want to pay the high price of gas, either go drill your own oil (and refine it), or don’t buy it. After hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf coast in 2005, the price of gas shot up to $4 per gallon (as commodities generally should during times of shortage). Many people I know started to complain loudly. I didn’t. I bought a bike. I have been riding my bike to work for 6 or 7 (warm) months out of the year for 7 years and been saving money the whole time. Don’t live close to work? Move closer. As I have pointed out before, there are tens of millions of empty homes in the U.S. right now just waiting for a buyer. I am suspect that most people could find one near their work. By moving, you can save money and “stick it to the oil companies” at the same time! Complaining about the fact that oil companies charge money for their product is probably counter productive. Besides that, in order implement cleaner alternatives at scale, we might need the expertise of some of the world’s largest energy companies. Maybe the Union of Concerned Scientists should focus more on developing such partnerships or work harder at educating people on ways to save more (which they only touched upon in their recent press release).

 Before anyone chimes in with a comment, yes, I am aware that different companies have been involved in illegal activities in the past, and I definitely agree that they should be prosecuted for those crimes.  The economic issues presented here are mostly distinct from the legal issues.

While I am on the subject of bad science, how about a couple studies that are less bad, but still leave something to be desired.

Coal Power Plant

The first one is a wind power study out of Australia. It is really good news. Using wind power in Australia is now cheaper than building new coal or natural gas fired power plants (and another take on the study). So what happened in the last few years? Were new more efficient wind turbines invented? Not really. Did coal become a lot more expensive? Yes. Is Australia running out of coal? No. The price of coal has gone up because of a new carbon tax. That is part of the reason why wind power is calculated to now be cheaper than coal power. The other reasons are also not related so much to the science of energy production but on political considerations. According to the article, many banks who might help fund new coal power plants in Australia would include a risk premium that would jack up the price. The risk premium would have to be built in to the up front costs because the carbon tax could go up in future years and coal power plants might get sued by various, people, environmental organizations, or even entire nations in future years. It is also important to note that current coal and gas plants do produce electricity more cheaply than wind turbines. This study only calculates prices for future construction. I can’t help but wonder if there are some other flaws in this study such as not including new transmission line costs, battery back-up costs, or de-comissioning costs associated with wind turbine power. If wind power was cheaper that coal or gas on a stand alone basis (without political manipulation), it wouldn’t need to be promoted. Companies would be putting them up everywhere in order to save money. (Aside: I am neutral on wind power, it is a nice option for clean energy, but turbines do come with a handful of downsides).

Flu Virus

Lastly, a study that smells of confirmation bias. Remember back when I kept the big list of bad things that are happening or were going to happen because of AGW. I finally had to stop because the list got too big and included everything from more obesity and more starvation on up to the destruction of the planet. Let us hearken back to those days. What about the flu? A recent study “proves” that severe flu outbreaks are linked with AGW (anthropogenic global warming). The study comes to the conclusion that flu outbreaks will be worse after a warm winter. People don’t get ill during a warm winter – it is theorized – and then they are more vulnerable to infection during the next winter. I am sure you are wondering, “what about a warm winter followed by another warm winter?” That is what is expected if AGW comes to pass as predicted by the IPCC. Less cold winters should mean less flu overall, not more severe flu outbreaks – as theorized by the study. Cold and flu viruses spread more effectively when here is cold dry air around. If the world warms up and continues to turn more humid, one would think just the opposite (of what this study proclaims) would happen. Another deficiency with this study is that it only used data since the winter of 1997-98. That is a rather short chunk of time on which to base a study of influenza. It is a unique time in earth’s climate history (very warm) which is not representative of the climate history through which the flu has affected humans. The study could draw more robust conclusions if they could find a way to include data from prior years. As of now, I am not worried that flu outbreaks are going to get worse because of AGW.

Have a pleasant Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Nature, Science

If you have kids that are interested in science of any type, hopefully they have a chance to be involved in something called Science Olympiad.  My son Douglas is involved through his high school and kids as young as 7th grade can take part.  It’s a great way for them to challenge their science skills and take part in some fun competiti0n.

The article below from Douglas gives you more insight.

Science in Today’s Youth: Science Olympiad

Douglas Schumacher

For nearly 30 years, the Science Olympiad organization has been helping to bring science to life, to show how science works, to emphasize problem solving aspects of science and the understanding of science concepts for students across the nation.  Through 26 high school and 24 middle school events, Science Olympiad provides a competitive basis for students to explore science.

I’m  currently on my high school’s second team and have competed at the middle school level last year and now the high school level.  Last year my favorite event was Meteorology, In which I placed 1st at an invitational, 3rd at regionals, and 5th at state.   This year so far our team competed in Boyceville.  One very interesting event I participated in dealt with glaciers and climatology.  I also was involved with outdoor geocaching.  It was challenging because it was raining and their was slush on the ground.  On a good note, I ended up getting 4th place!

The metorology event that I competed in last year was a test event in which you study about you topic , create some notes, and then, you guessed it, take a 50-minute test on the subject.   Other events, however, require a student to build some sort of contraption to complete a certain task, such as a box designed to insulate a beaker or a air-pressure powered bottle rocket.  No matter the case, Science Olympiad is a lot of fun.

If you would like to learn more about all the Science Olympiad does, visit their official website at http://soinc.org/.

Posted under Education, Science, Technology

VIDEO HERE: http://www.waow.com/story/20358716/2012/12/16/what-are-our-chances-for-a-white-christmas

Saturday’s combination of rain and warm temperatures ate up much of Central Wisconsin’s snow base this weekend.  And with fewer than 10 days until Christmas, the possibility of the region missing a so-called “white” Christmas has come top of mind for many looking forward to the holiday.

A Christmas is considered “white” when there is at least 1″ of snow on the ground on Dec. 25th.  And if nothing were to change in the weather between now and the holiday, this would be a “green” Christmas, as most of the Wausau metroplex has lost it’s snow base.

Northern Wisconsin is part of a few areas of the United States where “white” Christmases are considered the norm.  According to the National Weather Service, points north of Wausau historically see an inch of snow on the ground on Dec. 25th between 75 and 90% of the time, with the chances increasing closer to the border with upper Michigan.

Snow lovers and “white” Christmas proponents will want to pay close attention to the forecast this week.  The forecast models are advertising the potential for an organized storm system to develop over the southwestern United States, strengthen as it moves over the Plains, and become a large winter storm by the time it reaches the North American Great Lakes.

Of important note to Wisconsin is that the current projections place the track of the storm’s center moving south of the state.  That course would provide moisture, but combine it with colder air from Canada resulting in snow over much of Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa.  Warmer air would be contained south of the storm’s center of circulation giving rain to Indiana and Ohio.

Potential setup for Thursday

Forecasts change and systems don’t always come together as expected.  But should this system come to fruition, any snow Wisconsin picks up would likely last through Christmas.  Temperatures on the western side of the system are expected to bring daytime highs on Friday and Saturday in the 20s.

Stay up on the latest forecast projections as we get closer to Christmas with the Storm Track 9 weather team, Newsline 9 and waow.com.

Posted under forecast, Nature, Science, Seasonal Items, snow, Weather History, Weather NEws

The International Space Station recently completed a remarkable bit of maneuvering to position a piece of sun monitoring equipment so that it could obtain an unobstructed view for a complete rotation of the sun.  It takes about 25 days for the sun to make one revolution.  The SPACE instrument attached to the ISS is from the European Space Agency and has been monitoring solar output for about the past 5 years.    Of course the operators of the ISS have to be careful that they keep the solar panels of the ISS at a proper angle to absorb sunlight.  Also communication antennas have to remain pointed at Earth to ensure vital data continues to flow.

Credit: NASA

How would you like to be the engineer or technician responsible for figuring out how to do this at just the right time and just the right angles of rotation.  This is especially true given the millions and millions of dollars worth of equipment being adjusted.  It must be a thrilling yet daunting feeling.

The observations from SOLAR are improving our understanding of the sun and allowing researchers to formulate better computer models to predict its behavior.  You can read much more about the SOLAR instrument and the ISS from the NASA link that follows.  http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/news/SOLAR.html

SOLAR: ESA

Posted under astronomy, Science, Space, Technology

Sandy is expected to come ashore in southern New Jersey, but its impacts will be felt in many areas.

Storm surge is forecast to be an important piece of the story as Hurricane Sandy gears up for a collision course with the U.S. 

As of Sunday evening, the storm is considered a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.  Despite its low ranking on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, the National Weather Service and government authorities are taking no chances as the storm moves toward land.

Storm surge is a dangerous component to hurricanes, moving tremendous amounts of water toward land.  Despite its devastating impacts storm surge intensity is not taken into consideration with the Saffir-Simpson ranking.  The scale only accounts for wind speed.

The center of the storm’s circulation is forecast to move toward southern New Jersey, but the brunt of the storm surge activity will be north.  That is putting areas like New York City, Long Island and lower New England on alert.

In addition to the storm coming ashore, residents of the mid-Atlantic, New England and eastern Great Lakes will feel the impacts of the storm meeting a stationary front and support from the jet stream. 

With colder air surging southward with the jet stream, locations in parts of West Virginia, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina could see considerable snowfall amounts. 

Storm Track 9 meteorologist Rob Duns has more in this explanatory video. 

http://www.waow.com/story/19938287/storm-surge-concerns-raised-as-hurricane-sandy-approaches

Posted under Hurricanes, Natural Disasters, Nature, Records, Science, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Weather History, Weather NEws

Photo from NOAA

I came across this interesting link on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administation (NOAA) website I thought would be interesting to share. 

If you’ve ever wanted to explore deep beneath the oceans, you’re not alone.  And now you have the chance to, right from your computer.

Scientists from Australia, New Zealand and the U.S.  are conducting expeditions to the bottom of the Western Pacific Ocean and taking cameras with them. 

If you click on this link you can see where the current expedition location is: http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/12fire/welcome.html

And if you click on this link you can see streaming video from under the ocean: http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/12fire/media/12firestream_playlist.html

It’s pretty cool to see a place on planet Earth we sure don’t see very often!

Posted under Oceans, Science

Tornadoes are not unheard of in the northeastern United States, but they are rare. 

And in September, they are extremely rare. 

Nonetheless on Saturday, Sept. 5th a powerful cold front moving from the Great Lakes through New England spawned areas of torrential rain, strong wind, hail and isolated tornadoes in some unlikely places.   

Confirmed so far by the National Weather Service includes an EF1 tornado in Canarsie, New York, and an EF0 in Breezy Point, New York.  Both are inside the Greater New York City metropolitan area, the largest city in our country. 

There have been no reports of any injuries associated with these twisters. 

This photo of radar imagery shows the line of thunderstorms that spawned the tornadoes moving off shore over the Atlantic Ocean. 

The tornadoes this weekend become the latest on a list of notable weather features from 2012.  The year has been interesting in what has been and what has not been occurring. 

Rain has been very limited this year, with much of the country in severe drought.  Wisconsin, that averages around 21 tornadoes a year but has seen only two in 2012.  Ironically the same number seen in the NYC metropolitan area Saturday alone. 

With the unusual weather we’ve seen today, let it serve as a reminder on two fronts.  1) Don’t put down your guard when it comes to severe weather.  It’s easy to get lulled into a false sense of security when weeks go by without it occurring.  2) Know your surroundings.  People in New York City aren’t accustomed to tornadoes like Wisconsinites are.  Visitors to New York City were probably even more off guard. 

Keep up on the latest when it comes to the weather.  It can (and will always) have some degree of unpredictability.  Don’t let it catch you!

Posted under Natural Disasters, Nature, Science, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Storms, Tornadoes, Weather History, Weather NEws, Weather Safety, Wind