With tornado and severe weather season ramping up into high gear lately, it is a good time to review safety rules.  You probably have the safety tips for humans stuck in your head pretty well by now.  But how about for your pets?  What types of things do you need to have in place to keep them as safe as possible when a bad storm hits?  How about for caring for them in the aftermath?  The Humane Society of the U.S. has put together a comprehensive plan for pet owners.  You should definitely take a good look at this as there is much to learn on how to keep you precious animal friends cared for.  You will find it printed below.

• Put a collar with visible identification on your pets, including indoor-only pets.
• Keep pictures of your pets on hand for identification purposes. Ideally, you should also be in the photo.
• Create a pet emergency kit (see below). Items should be refreshed every few months.
• Talk to your neighbors about how they can help your pets if you are not at home if disaster strikes.
• Create a list of hotels that allow pets. Know where you can take your horses: Make arrangements with a friend or another horse owner to stable your horses if needed.

• Three-or-more-day supply of food in airtight, waterproof container, and drinking water.
• Bowls for food and water.
• Current photos and physical description of your pets, including details on markings.
• Medications, vaccination records and pet first aid supplies.
• Comfort items such as a toy and blanket.
• Small garbage bags.
• For dogs include: leash, harness and a sturdy carrier large enough to use as a sleeping area.
• For cats include: litter and litter box and a sturdy carrier large enough for transport.
• For horses include: Coggins tests, veterinary papers, identification photographs and vital information such as medical history and emergency phone numbers.

Posted under Education, Severe Weather, Storms, Tornadoes

Researchers at NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory and the University of Oklahoma have made some exciting new advances in tornado research.  They have found a strong relation between something called updraft helicity and and tornado track length.  Updraft helicity is essentially a measure of how fast the air is spinning in the rapidly rising column of warm moist air that feeds tornadic thunderstorms.  It can be inferred from the wind direction and speed at different heights in the atmosphere near the thunderstorms.  These researchers have improved their high resolution computer models enough to produce timely, small scale predictions of updraft helicity.  While the models can’t actually predict the tornado, they can with improved confidence show where the likelihood of a strong one forming will be.  As such it will be another handy tool for forecasters to use to help keep the public safe.

You can read a press release from NOAA on this topic from the following link.  http://researchmatters.noaa.gov/news/Pages/NSSLpredicting.aspx

Posted under Severe Weather, Storms, Tornadoes, Weather NEws

Despite the continued chilly conditions and even a chance of snow later in the week, this is Tornado and Severe Weather Awareness Week across Wisconsin.  Our main severe weather season in Wisconsin runs from April through September, with the peak typically in June and July.  While last summer had very few severe storms and only 4 twisters, that is not typical.  The Badger State average 23 tornadoes per year with dozens more severe thunderstorms with damaging straight line winds, large hail, intense lightning, and flooding rain.  You definitely want to take this week to refresh your severe weather safety plan.  Please review what you would do whether you are at home, in the car, in a store or public building, or outside.  There will be a statewide test tornado watch issued Friday, April 19th at 1 p.m. with a test tornado warning issued at 1:45 p.m.  It has been pushed back from the orginal test date of Thursday due to the threat of severe thunderstorms in southeast Wisconsin Thursday.

Below is an informational statement from the National Weather Service.

IN 2012...WISCONSIN HAD 4 DOCUMENTED TORNADOES. THERE WERE NO 
FATALITIES OR INJURIES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TORNADOES.

THERE HAVE BEEN 1499 DOCUMENTED TORNADOES IN WISCONSIN SINCE
1844...CAUSING 511 DIRECTLY-RELATED DEATHS AND AT LEAST 3049
DIRECTLY-RELATED INJURIES.  DATA PRIOR TO 1950 IS INCOMPLETE BECAUSE
IN MANY CASES...ONLY LARGE TORNADOES WERE REPORTED AND MANY RURAL
TORNADOES WENT UNDETECTED.

THE FOLLOWING ARE WISCONSIN TORNADO OCCURRENCES BY MONTH...

          J   F   M   A   M   J   J   A   S   O   N   D  TOTAL
1844-2012 3   0  18  117 238 430 325 197 126 30   9   6   1499
Only 2012 0   0   0    0   2  0   0   1   1   0   0   0      4

30 YEAR NORMAL /1981-2010/  ...23 TORNADOES PER YEAR IN WISCONSIN.

THE YEAR OF 2005 HAD THE GREATEST STATE TOTAL WITH 62 TORNADOES.

THE YEAR OF 1952 HAD THE FEWEST NUMBER WITH 1 TORNADO.

OTHER YEARLY WISCONSIN TOTALS INCLUDE...

1980...43 1981...21 1982...16 1983...31 1984...34
1985...16 1986...14 1987...16 1988...35 1989...17
1990...09 1991...10 1992...26 1993...37 1994...35
1995...07 1996...21 1997...14 1998...11 1999...11
2000...18 2001...12 2002...26 2003...14 2004...36
2005...62 2006...13 2007...18 2008...38 2009...16
2010...46 2011...38 2012...04
------------------------------------------------------------------
THE FOLLOWING ARE STATISTICS FOR THE AVERAGE TORNADO IN WISCONSIN
FROM 1950 THROUGH JANUARY 2008...

DURATION....9.8 MINUTES
LENGTH......5.5 MILES
MAX WIDTH...121 YARDS
INTENSITY...1.1 ON THE EF-SCALE

THE FOLLOWING ARE STATISTICS FOR THE AVERAGE TORNADO IN WISCONSIN
FROM 1982 THROUGH JANUARY 2008...

DURATION...7.1 MINUTES
LENGTH.....3.7 MILES
WIDTH......118 YARDS
----------------------------------------------------------------

...WISCONSIN`S WORST TORNADO...
     NEW RICHMOND /ST. CROIX COUNTY/ TORNADO ON JUNE 12 1899...
     KILLING 117...INJURING 125...AND DESTROYING OVER 300 BUILDINGS.

...OTHER COSTLY WISCONSIN TORNADOES INCLUDE...
     OAKFIELD /FOND DU LAC COUNTY/ TORNADO ON JULY 18 1996...INJURING
     ONLY 12 WITH DAMAGE PEGGED AT 40.4 MILLION DOLLARS IN 1996
     DOLLARS /59.78 MILLION IN 2013 DOLLARS. IT BECAME A F5 TORNADO

     EAST OF OAKFIELD. 
     BARNEVELD/IOWA COUNTY/ TORNADO ON JUNE 8 1984...KILLED 9 AND
     INJURED 200 WITH WITH DAMAGED PEGGED AT 40 MILLION DOLLARS
     IN 1984 DOLLARS /89.38 MILLININ 2013 DOLLARS. THIS WAS AN F5 TORNADO.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

...NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORM DAYS IN WISCONSIN...
ON AVERAGE...THE NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR WITH THUNDERSTORMS RANGES
FROM AROUND 30 ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO AROUND 40 OVER
THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE.

...NUMBER OF TORNADO DAYS IN WISCONSIN...
IN THE TORNADO DEPARTMENT...SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AVERAGES ABOUT 1 DAY PER YEAR WITH A TORNADO. THIS
AVERAGE DECREASES DOWN TO 0.7 DAYS PER YEAR FOR THE MADISON AREA...
0.6 TORNADO DAYS PER YEAR FOR MILWAUKEE AREA...0.4 DAYS PER YEAR
FOR THE GREEN BAY AREA...AND 0.2 TORNADO DAYS PER YEAR FOR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN.

...NUMBER OF WARNINGS PER YEAR IN WISCONSIN...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES THAT SERVICE WISCONSIN ISSUE...ON
AVERAGE...ONLY 1 TO 2 TORNADO WARNINGS AND 5 TO 10 SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS PER COUNTY PER YEAR FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE AVERAGES ARE LESS FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES.

...NUMBER OF WATCHES PER YEAR IN WISCONSIN...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WISCONSIN ISSUES ON AVERAGE ABOUT
29 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES PER YEAR THAT COVER AT LEAST SOME PART
OF WISCONSIN. THE NUMBER FOR TORNADO WATCHES IN WISCONSIN IS ABOUT
11 PER YEAR.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

THE U.S. NATIONAL AVERAGES FOR THE PERIOD 1982-2012...
     ...1132 TORNADOES PER YEAR
     ...73 DEATHS PER YEAR
     ...22 KILLER TORNADOES PER YEAR

YEAR-BY-YEAR BREAKDOWN FOR U.S. FOR 1982-2012 FOLLOWS...

    YEAR        TORNADOES         DEATHS           KILLER TORNADOES
-------------------------------------------------------------------
    1982          1047               64                   31
    1983           812               34                   26
    1984           907              122                   33
    1985           684               94                   20
    1986           713               15                   11
    1987           656               59                   14
    1988           698               32                   19
    1989           856               50                   13
    1990          1133               53                   17
    1991          1127               39                   15
    1992          1297               39                   16
    1993          1173               33                   16
    1994          1085               68                   23
    1995          1234               29                   14
    1996          1173               25                   13
    1997          1148               67                   22
    1998          1417              130                   33
    1999          1300               95                   29
    2000          1071               40                   14
    2001          1216               40                   23
    2002           941               55                   28
    2003          1376               54                   23
    2004          1817               36                   20
    2005          1264               38                   13
    2006          1103               67                   25
    2007          1098               81                   26
    2008          1692              126                   37
    2009          1146               21                    9
    2010          1282               45                   21
    2011          1691              553                   59
    2012           939               70                   22

/TOTAL OF 1817 IN 2004 IS AN ALL-TIME YEARLY RECORD/

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT TORNADOES...PLEASE REFER TO:

http://spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/pagelist.htm

FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION...UP TO DATE FORECASTS...
AND ANY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES PLEASE VISIT:

http://weather.gov/mkx



You can see much more information on severe weather at this link.  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grb/?n=taw_week

Posted under Severe Weather, Storms, Weather Safety

While we will be on the cold side of the storm system this week here in Wisconsin, south of the warm front the air will be warming into the 70s and 80s.   In fact take a look at the surface map from  5 p.m. Monday.  It showed temperatures only in the 30s in central Wisconsin and central Minnesota.  At the same time it was in the 60s in the southwest tip of Wisconsin and 70s around Iowa and Illinois.

These big spring temperature contrasts usually mean trouble from the skies.  When you throw on top of that high moisture levels and plenty of wind aloft, conditions will be ripe for severe thunderstorms.  Tuesday the main risk area stretches from southern Iowa down into central Texas.  Damaging thunderstorm winds over 60 mph, hail to 2.0″ in diameter, and tornadoes may develop the risk area.  Of course localized very heavy rain can be expected.  You’ll notice that SPC indicates there is a chance of some non-severe thunderstorms (green shading) all the way up into central Wisconsin.  That would be interesting to be 40 degrees, cold and breezy, and yet get a thunderstorm.

By Wednesday, the main severe thunderstorm risk area slides eastward from the Ohio Valley down to the Deep South.  This will be the area still in the warm sector of the low pressure system centered in northern Missouri.  The trailing cold front will likely have a major squall line on it as it travels through the mid and southern Mississippi Valley areas.  Yes it will certainly be a busy period of weather across the county this week.

Posted under Severe Weather

The Skywarn Spotter training program is in high gear right now as we prepare for the severe thunderstorm season.   The National Weather Service is holding numerous sessions around the area for those interested in learning about severe weather and how to report on it.    They include:

• April 2nd:  Wood County Courthouse in Wisconsin Rapids, 6:00 p.m.
• April 10th:  Waushara County Courthouse in Wautoma, 6:00 p.m.
• April 11th:  Antigo High School, 6:00 p.m.
• April 15th:  Law Enforcement Center in Adams, 6:30 p.m.
• May 22nd:  Oneida County Law Enforcement Center in Rhinelander, 6:00 p.m.

Several live webinars will be held as well.  You need to have high speed internet and phone to take part in these. 

• March 28th:  7:00 p.m.  Conducted by the Green Bay National Weather Service (you need to live in their county warning area-covers much of the TV-9 area)
• April 9th:  2:00 p.m.  Conducted by the La Crosse National Weather Service ( includes Taylor, Clark, Jackson, Monroe, Juneau, and Adams Counties)

A third option to become Skywarn certified is to take an online self study course.

• Please go to the following link to learn more about the online self study.   https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_course.php?id=23

There is a wealth of information online regarding severe weather information, spotting, and safety.  Please visit the Green Bay National Weather Service Skywarn page, http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grb/spotters.php

Another great link is the National Skywarn Homepage.  http://skywarn.org/

Spotters, thanks for all your hard work and dedication.  You really help keep the public as safe and informed as possible during severe weather.  Keep up the good work!

Posted under Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Storms, Tornadoes, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

March 18th through the 22nd is Flood Safety Awareness Week in the U.S.  Flooding is one of those sneaky things.  It doesn’t seem as dramatic or frightening perhaps as a tornado or blizzard.   However it certainly is one of the main causes of property damage, personal injury, and weather related fatalities each year in our country.  Flooding comes in a variety of forms, speeds, and types.  Of course there is spring snow melt flooding.  There is flash flooding, which is more common during summer thunderstorm episodes, and then general river flooding.  All pose definite hazards and warrant our full attention.  If there is one phrase you will want to remember when it comes to flooding it is….”turn around don’t drown”.

NOAA has put together a very comprehensive flood page.  It has great information regarding the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services, the United States Geological Survey, River Gauges and River Forecasts, Flood Insurance, and Flood Safety.  Please take advantage of the wealth of information at http://www.floodsafety.noaa.gov/

Posted under Education, Flooding, Severe Weather, Spring, Weather Safety

There is a lot of talk recently about how “extreme” the weather is now, and how it will get so much more “extreme” in the future (even more specualtion here). There are certainly some robust theories as to why this will happen – why the frequency of severe weather events might increase (like all time heat records) - and we should of course be sure to keep our eyes open and do what we can to survive extreme weather events (like burying electrical lines, also see Superstorm Risks). However, we should remember that some unbelievably ”extreme” weather has happened in the past.

There has been much talk about how the desert southwest of the U.S. is going to suffer from more heat and drought in the future. The odds are fairly good that this will happen, not only if the global climate continues to warm, but also for the plain fact that there are millions and millions more people living in, and moving to, the southwest, creating greater stress on the water supply and adding more to the urban heat island effect. However, a “mega-drought” in the southwest should not come as too much of a surprise to blog readers here because I have detailed the climate history of the southwest a couple of times in the past. As new research also shows, multi-year and multi-DECADE droughts were common a few hundred years ago. So there is a fairly good chance we could see some “extreme” stress on rivers such as the Colorado, but it will probably not as extreme as what happened during past mega-droughts. The 20th century might turn out to be an anonymously wet period – and the “extreme” drought might be just “getting back to normal”.

Citicorp Center had to be reinforced in 1978

Even as extreme as Superstorm Sandy appeared, it was known that such a storm was possible decades before, and that infrastructure would be in trouble. La Guardia airport had flooded before and Sandy-type storm surges had been modeled. The Citicorp building was even vulnerable at one point if a “big storm” ever created high winds in New York. Around other coastal areas of the U.S. there have been many periods where stronger hurricanes have struck the coast, well before Katrina entered our collective memory.

One would think receiving 50 inches of rain over just a few days would be pretty extreme as well, but looking at today’s date in weather history we find that it happened in southern California way back in 1969:

On this day in 1969, a spate of heavy rain begins in Southern California that results in a tragic series of landslides and floods that kills nearly 100 people. This was the worst weather-related disaster in California in the 20th century.

Although January typically features relatively high precipitation in Southern California, the first month of 1969 saw an extraordinary amount of rain throughout the region. Mt. Baldy, east of Los Angeles, received more than 50 inches in the nine-day period beginning January 18. By January 26, the Federal Emergency Management Association (FEMA) had declared it a federal disaster area.

The worst part of the remarkable rainfall was that it caused a series of landslides in the hills of Southern California. In Glendora, 1 million cubic meters of rock and mud slid down a hillside, destroying 200 homes and killing dozens of people. Although there was only one fatality, the plight of Mandeville Canyon, north of Sunset Boulevard in L.A.’s Brentwood section, during the disaster was heavily publicized due to the wealth and fame of its residents….read the full story here.

I can’t imagine all of the press and “hyperventilating” that would occur if 50 inches of rain fell in the mountains around Los Angeles in the present day, but it is certainly possible again. The oceans are a bit warmer and that means more moisture will typically be available for Pacific storm slamming into California. By the way, on the topic of landslides, a recent report found that it is a more dangerous “weather event” than most people realize.

We might have different types of extreme weather or more frequent severe weather in the future, but a lot of it has occurred before. Our short memories need a refresher once in a while.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Flooding, Heat, Severe Weather

2012 certainly did not have any shortage of extreme weather events across the United States.  In fact according to NOAA, there were 11 weather disasters that caused at least one billion dollars worth of damage.  Hurricanes, fires, droughts, floods, and tornadoes all made the list.  I suspect the greater our population becomes, and the more people that live along the coasts and in fire prone areas of the west and southwest, the greater the disaster potential will be in upcoming years.  The news article from NOAA printed below is a good summary with additional links if you want to dig in deeper to what happenned in 2012 and even prior years.  Keep in mind the NOAA article was written before the destructive storm that hit the southern and eastern U.S. on December 25th and 26th.

Preliminary Info on 2012 U.S. Billion-Dollar Extreme Weather/Climate Events

(source:  NOAA)

 

Today, NOAA released preliminary information on extreme weather and climate events in the U.S. for 2012 that are known to have reached the $1 billion threshold in losses. As of December 20, NOAA estimates that the nation experienced 11 such events, to include seven severe weather/tornado events, two tropical storm/hurricane events, and the yearlong drought and associated wildfires.

These eleven events combined are believed to have caused 349 deaths, with the most significant losses of life occurring during Sandy (131) and the summer-long heat wave and associated drought, which caused over 123 direct deaths (though an estimate of the excess mortality due to heat stress is still unknown).

The eleven events include:

• Southeast/Ohio Valley Tornadoes — March 2–3 2012
• Texas Tornadoes — April 2–3 2012
• Great Plains Tornadoes — April 13–14 2012
• Midwest/Ohio Valley Severe Weather — April 28–May 1 2012
• Southern Plains/Midwest/Northeast Severe Weather — May 25–30 2012
• Rockies/Southwest Severe Weather — June 6–12 2012
• Plains/East/Northeast Severe Weather (“Derecho”) — June 29–July 2 2012
• Hurricane Isaac — August 26–31 2012
• Western Wildfires — Summer–Fall, 2012
• Hurricane Sandy — October 29–31 2012
• U.S. Drought/Heatwave — throughout 2012

Economic losses for two events, Sandy and the yearlong drought, are the big drivers this year in terms of costs and are still being calculated. It will take months to develop a final, reliable estimate for each. Given how big these events are likely to be, NOAA estimates 2012 will surpass 2011 (exceeding $60 billion, CPI-adjusted to 2012 dollars) in terms of aggregate costs for annual billion-dollar disasters, even with fewer number of billion-dollar disasters. The greatest annual loss to date was 2005 when Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma and Dennis struck Florida and the Gulf Coast states (costs exceeded $187 billion, CPI-adjusted to 2012 dollars).

Further information about each of these eleven events can be found at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events.

The impacts of natural disasters, as seen this year, are a stark reminder of how deadly and destructive weather can be and how important it is to be prepared. Through NOAA’s Weather-Ready Nation initiative, we are taking steps to lessen the impacts of extreme weather on our communities and our nation’s economy. To learn more, visit http://www.nws.noaa.gov/com/weatherreadynation/.

Posted under Flooding, Hurricanes, Natural Disasters, Severe Weather, Storms, Tornadoes, Weather NEws

Christmas isn’t exactly what comes to mind when you think of tornado season in the U.S. However a vigorous storm system passing through the Southern Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon will gather many of the necessary ingredients to produce supercell thunderstorms in a strip from Texas to Georgia and Tennessee. Damaging straight line winds, large hail, torrential downpours, and tornadoes are expected. In fact the Storm Prediction Center believes that some of the tornadoes could be strong, long lived, long tracked twisters with winds over 150 mph. That part of the country has a moderate risk from the Storm Prediction Center for the dangerous conditions Christmas Day.

The peak time for this activity would be around the mid to late afternoon before the atmosphere starts to cool off in the early evening. Warm and humid air will be flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico and will collide with cold and dry air punching south across the Plains. It will clash near the low pressure system moving northeast from Arkansas. Our thoughts and prayers go out to that region that hopefully nothing to devastating happens.

Meanwhile on the north side of the storm track, heavy snow will be the main concern from Oklahoma all the way up toward Ohio and Pennsylvania by Tuesday night. Widespread 4 to 8″ snow amounts are expected with a few strips getting clobbered with up toward one foot of heavy wet snow. This will cause major travel disruptions in places like Tulsa, Paducah, Indianapolis, Columbus, and Erie, PA. It will continue to cause trouble by late Wednesday up into New England as well.

Posted under Severe Weather, snow, Tornadoes, Travel, Winter Weather

We are rapidly approaching the Winter Solstice.  It happens this time around on Friday, December 21st at 5:12 a.m. CST.  This is when the sun will be lowest in the sky of the entire year in the Northern Hemisphere.  It’s only fitting we have snow in the forecast as we approach this event I suppose.  Through Monday, the Wausau area has picked up 5.4″ of snow in December.  Of course most of that melted this past weekend.  We have some work to do to get up to our normal for December which is almost 14″.  It is very possible if the big storm tracks the right way Wednesday night and Thursday that we will be pushed up to or even above our monthly average snowfall.  Central Wisconsin won’t be the only area dealing with this pre-winter solstice snowstorm.  In fact as you see from the map below, winter storm watches and even some blizzard watches were issued from the National Weather Service all the way from Colorado clear up into Michigan.  Clearly there will be widespread travel disruptions through the center of the nation, even in areas outside of the official watches.

One aspect of this storm that will be different than the storm that moved through here on the 9th of December is the fact that we will see a lot more wind this time.  There will be a fairly tight pressure gradient around the low pressure system as it deepense and pushes northeast up into southern Lake Michigan by midday Thursday.  On the model projection below, the pressure lines or isobars, are the black circles surrounding the L on the map.  The tighter they are packed, the stronger the winds generally area.  It appears we will we will have northeast to north winds early Thursday around 20 mph, becoming NW at 20 to 30 mph for the afternoon and evening.  This will create low visibilities to one-quarter mile or less in the heavier snow bands.  In addition drifting snow could be rather substantial in rural open areas.  I suspect some 2 to 3 foot snow drifts will build up by Thursday afternoon.  This of course will make traveling even more treacherous than the last storm did.  Please montior TV-9 newscasts throughout the day along with our website, waow.com for complete storm information as it draws closer.

Model projection for noon Thursday. Solid black lines are isobars or “pressure lines”.

Posted under forecast, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, snow, Winter Weather