Enter today to win some great prizes from the R-Store!

Are you ready to enter a contest with truly epic prizes?  It’s your turn to take a hand at forecasting with our Storm Track 9 “Guess the first inch of snowfall in Wausau” contest!

It’s simple.  What date do you envision as the first day of the year where we see at least one inch of snow fall in Wausau?  Send in your guess by midnight on September 30^th and then sit back and wait. 

Guess the right date and we’ll enter you into a drawing for some very cool prizes.  First place takes home a year’s worth of FREE car washes courtesy of the R-Store (that’s a whopping $500 value!) plus a $50.00 R-Store gift card.   

Second place goes home with a $150.00 R-Store gift card, third place a $100.00 R-Store gift card and fourth place enjoys a $50.00 R-Store gift card.  And everyone else who picks the correct date will get a free premium car wash courtesy of the R-Store. 

So how do you enter?  It’s a snap.  Follow this link to our Storm Track 9 homepage.  It has all the details you’ll want to see.  Follow the banner link directing you to the contest where you can enter online. 

Have your cell phone in hand?  That works too!  Text the word “Snowfall” along with your guess to “28214”.  Or if you want to help keep the Postal Service afloat, you can mail in your guess to:

Good luck!

Posted under Community, Environment, Nature, Seasonal Items, Snowmelt 2011, Winter Weather

Congratulations to the 52 people who correctly guessed June 17th as the date the snow finally melted in our 2011 Snowmelt Contest!  The five winners of the R-Store Gift Cards were announced this morning on Wake-Up Wisconsin. 

Congratulations to: 

 -  1st Place $250 R-Store Gift Card – Edna Scheel, Schofield

-    2nd Place $150 R-Store Gift Card – Melissa Hoffman, Weston

-    3rd Place $100 R-Store Gift Card – Joe Orsund, Amherst

-     4th Place $50 R-Store Gift Card – Diane Stroik, Ringle

-     5th Place $25 R-Store Gift Card – Joanne Ciszczon, Wisconsin Rapids

Good Luck Next Year!

Posted under Community, Nature, Seasonal Items, Snow Totals, Snowmelt 2011, Uncategorized

First in the blog I want to mention that we have now drawn the top 5 winners for the snowmelt contest. We have revealed the 4th and 5th place winners and will be revealing the top three on Wake-Up Wisconsin tomorrow morning (Thursday June 23th). We had 52 people who predicted the correct date of the snowmelt (June 17th). For those who are not drawn for the top prizes, you will receive premium car wash coupon. We will be mailing out the prizes late this week and early next week. You can check all the updates from the last couple weeks at this article on our website. Here is the winner board so far:

• 1st Place $250 Gift Card – ??
• 2nd Place $150 Gift Card – ??
• 3rd Place $100 Gift Card – ??
• 4th Place $50 Gift Card – Diane Stroik, Ringle
• 5th Place $25 Gift Card – Joanne Ciszczon, Wisconsin Rapids

I don’t have the time or inclination to go through our archives this morning to find out the exact date of the snowmelt for each of the past 7 years but here is what I remember off the top of my head for the snowmelt each year:

• 2005 June 7th
• 2006: June 6th
• 2007: May 25th
• 2008: June 8th
• 2009: June 24th (exact date)
• 2010: May 29th (exact date)
• 2011: June 17th (exact date)

As you can see, the snowmelt date has been a lot more varied in the last 3 years, kind-of like our weather this Spring. This year the snowmelt might have been a lot later if we didn’t have 3 record warm days in the 90s earlier this month. The question is: Will the wild weather continue for the rest of the Summer, or will things quiet down? I am sure glad we have not had much severe weather recently. There was a tornado watch for parts of the area yesterday but we did not observe any touchdowns, just some scattered showers and thunderstorms. There wasn’t severe weather but there were some heavy downpours. Our weather watcher Marianne in Scandinavia reported 3.2 inches of rain yesterday evening. Some heavier downpours are possible once again this afternoon. In Wausau, the record precipitation for June 22nd is only 1.06 inches so there is a chance we could set a new record rainfall today.

July-Aug-Sept CPC Temp Outlook

But what about the longer term? Will the weather warm up? Last month when we looked at the CPC monthly outlooks, the June-July-August temperature trend indicated a greater than average chance of below normal temperatures. The good news was that it seemed like the cooler weather would be concentrated in June and then there would be a greater possibility of warmer weather later in the Summer. Well, that outlook seems to playing out. We did have some record warmth this month but most days have been below normal. Now the latest three month outlook (for July-August-September) is showing an equal chance of below or above normal temps. Hopefully this will mean more normal Summer-time temps. Lo and behold, it does look like some 80s are likely for next week and this warmth could last into the first few days of July.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Snowmelt 2011

I hope everyone likes the new set and high definition presentation of our news at WAOW. It was a long journey to get the set installed with the main delay coming from the Japanese earthquake. A special large color film that was supposed to go on the set was only made at one plant in the world, and that plant was shut down because of the earthquake. In any case, now that the new HD cameras and set  are installed, let us know what you think. We have gone over the weather graphics in order to make sure they all display properly but if you see something odd/off or if you think they could be improved in some small manner, let us know.

The other part of this short blog post is in regards to the snowmelt contest. Perhaps you heard. The official snowmelt date was last Friday June 17th. I posted a small picture in the update story last week. Here is larger picture of the wet spot on the mountain where I found the last little hint of snow on Friday. Now I am gathering the list of names who predicted the correct snowmelt date and we will have a drawing for the top 5 winners on Wednesday of this week. We will reveal 2 of the winners on Wednesday and then the top 3 winners of the R-store gifts cards on Thursday. Everyone who is not drawn in the top 5 will recieve car wash coupons from the R-stores. We will be drawing for the winners and revealing them on Wednesday and Thursday of this week on Wake-Up Wisconsin. Stay Tuned!

51 people correctly predicted the correct date. Here is the list of people who will be entered in the drawing. If you know any of them, let them know how awesome of a forecaster they were – this year.

We also have 3 winners who entered by texting who we do not yet have names for – just phone numbers. If they are late in getting their names in, then we will just put the last four digits of their phone numbers into the hat.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Snowmelt 2011, Technology

Before delving a little more into recent alternative energy news, I have to bring everyone up to date on the snowmelt contest. It is getting very close to the end. I have included a picture of the snow that I saw yesterday, June 16th. The snow pile was small enough that I estimate it will melt today (the 17th). There is a slight chance it could last until tomorrow. In any case, you can check either the blog or the snowmelt update article to find out what the winning date will be.

Snow as of June 16th

I am quite sure we will be drawing for the top five winners (R-Store gift cards) early next week on Wake-Up Wisconsin.

________________________________

Now for an update on yesterday’s biofuel blog post: The U.S. Senate just voted yesterday to end the ethanol subsidies and the ethanol import tarriff. For those who oppose using food for making liquid fuel, this is a step in the right direction. However, this is just a vote in the Senate. The House and the President must also approve the bill in order for the subsidies to end. Given that the U.S. already seems to be in an election cycle, this vote might not stand. Many people in Iowa support the subsidies and Iowa is an early voting state in the primaries.

The grain ethanol situation is one that did not develop as expected. The government jumped in with billions and billions of dollars before examining many of the unintended side effects – such as food price inflation, transporting the flammable liquid, or the effect on car engines. This is often the case with big government programs and regulations. It reminds me of the saying “the road to hell is paved with good intentions”. Something that many people might not think about too much is air conditioning. In what seems like another incestuous industry/government collaboration, air conditioners have gotten bigger. The intentions were good – to replace an old refrigerant that might be affecting the ozone layer. Unfortunately, the new refrigerant does not work as well and requires larger air conditioners for the same amount of cooling. This of course means that more energy has to go into manufacturing, transporting, and operating the units. It is likely that the lifetime carbon footprint of the new air conditioners is much higher than the old ones. Here is an article examining the recent development. The author also brings up the housing boom of the 1990s and 200s, how government policies helped to fuel excessive building. Ironically, those houses are much bigger than in the past, built in hotter areas of the country, and are now using less efficient (from a carbon footprint perspective) air conditioners.

It is interesting to note that if oil is running out (and quite dirty anyway), and better green alternatives are not quite ready yet, a “bridge fuel” that could help us out, is one that has very little government support. It is natural gas. It is cleaner and has lower carbon emissions that coal or oil. The U.S has plenty of it as well. It would seem to be the perfect transition fuel. The main problem with using natural gas is getting it out of the ground. The hydraulic fracturing process does have the potential to contaminate ground water in some instances. Read here and here.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Snowmelt 2011

Just a quick blog update today about the snowmelt contest. I was up on Rib Mountain checking the snow condition on Sunday and it seemed there was enough left to last a couple more days, maybe until the end of the week. So if you guessed between the 15th and the 20th then you might be in luck.

Have a pleasant Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Snowmelt 2011

Anthony left a very timely comment in the blog yesterday asking about the La Nin/El Nino (ENSO) effects on the weather with particular focus on the wild weather we are having so far this year in the U.S. I say “timely” because I just gave a presentation about El Nino and La Nina to the Central Wisconsin Boating club AND the latest monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion from the Climate Prediction Center was released yesterday.

First the details on the current situation. The La Nina gradually came to an end in May. Now we are seeing neutral surface temperatures in the central Pacific ocean. What do neutral ENSO temperatures mean for our weather? Not much really. All it means is that La Nina or El Nino will not be affecting our weather this Summer. Neither of these has a very strong effect on our Summer weather anyway. The major effects usually happen during the cold season.

What lies in the future? Most of the CPC ENSO models are predicting essentiallyneutral conditions through the end of this year. Once again the COLA CCSM3 is the very odd “man” out predicting a record El Nino to develop (around 2.6 degrees above normal). At least this is better than last month when this same model was predicting a super-mega-monster El Nino of almost 3.0 degrees above normal. Even though the average of the models is still predicting neutral conditions, I did notice a slight shift toward the warmer side of ENSO so perhaps a weak El Nino is in the cards. Just remember that even though El Nino and La Nina are opposites, they don’t always follow each other. It is not like a perfect sine wave oscillation.

Now on to the question as to whether La Nina played a part in this year’s wild weather (mainly during the Spring). My instinct is to say yes. At the NWS Green Bay media seminar last month they shared data showing that La Nina typically did not have a strong influence on our Winter weather here in Wisconsin, however I have noticed that the last three La Nina Winters have been colder than normal with above normal snowfall (in Wausau). Perhaps a new trend is developing that wasn’t present in the past. With the (seemingly) La Nina induced colder weather in the northern half of the country this Spring, and warmer than normal temps over the Gulf of Mexico and southern U.S., it certainly seemed to set up a clash of air-masses a bit stronger than in past years. So I would say (preliminarily) that La Nina did have some effect on the wilder weather (and severe weather) this Spring.

A more significant ENSO Summer-time effect that might come into play is in relation to the hurricane season. When there is an El Nino occurring in the Pacific ocean, it usually has a dampening effect on hurricanes in the Antlantic. When the ENSO pattern is either neutral or in the La Nina phase then more stronger hurricanes are likely to occur and they tend to occur closer to the shores of the U.S. In fact, during the 2005 hurricane season when the ENSO temps were neutral, we had two category 5 hurricanes in the Gulf, Katrina and Rita. There is no guarantee we will have a repeat this year, just that stornger hurricanes are more likely.

_____________________

Remaining Snow as of June 9th

How about an update on the snowmelt contest? I hiked up to the snow once again yesterday and took a picture. The 90 degree weather from earlier this week really did a number on the snow but there is still some left. Due to the colder trend for the next couple of days I think the contest will be prolonged into next week. I don’t think it will quite make it to the 20th but we shall see. Be sure to check here for more updates and pictures throughout next week.

_______________________

Lastly, a little eye-candy for you on this Friday to help you whittle away the work-day. Perhaps you have seen this around the net already – the biggest explosion ever seen on the sun. It might not be the biggest ever, but it the biggest scientists have ever observed. This one was unique in that some of the plasma from the explosion rained back down on the sun. Check out the cool video here.

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, Hurricanes, Snowmelt 2011, Space

I am going out to visit an area Summer school program today so I only have time for a quick blog update to highlight the record high temperatures that occurred yesterday.

• Wausau 94 (old record 91)
• Stevens Point 97 (old record 94)
• Antigo 91 (old record 90)
• Rhinelander 93 (old record 92)
• Marshfield 93 tied (old record 93)

Remaining Snow on Rib Mountain - June 7th

Also of note, I did make it up to Rib Mountain yesterday to take a picture of the remaining snow. Yes, there is some snow remaining. The pile that is left was really taking a hit yesterday, but it is big enough that we will likey have a few more days yet before the final melt. I predicted the 13th but I think it will last a day or two longer than that.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Heat, Records, Snowmelt 2011, Viewer pictures

As promised, wenow have a dedicated page on the website for everyone to keep track of the snowmelt contest. Check here for new pictures over the next week or two – or however long it takes for the snow to melt. There is a chance I might get up to the mountain tomorrow for new pictures, otherwise it will be early next week.

One thing that sometimes helps to melt the snow is heavy rain but we haven’t had significant rain (a half inch or more) since May 22nd (the day of the Saratoga tornado) and it doesn’t look like significant rain is likely for most of the area until the middle of next week. That doesn’t mean there will be no rain, just that the chances are low and pocket of heavier rain will be isolated. The highest chance of heavier rain and storms will be in the Northwoods late tonight into early Friday morning. The Storm Prediction Center is even forecasting a slight chance of severe storms, with the main threat being hail and high winds. The chance of significant rain is low enough (in central areas) that I plan on watering my garden this afternoon, because the next chance of heavier rain will be the middle of next week.

Even though we haven’t received significant rain in about 10 days, I am happy to report that the state of Wisconsin is still 100% drought free! That is according to the latest US Drought Monitor. It is not too often that entire states are drought free, but that is currently the case for many states in the northern half of the country and along the west coast. The worst drought is concentrated over Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico. How long will Wisconsin remain drought free? As early as next week we might see some of the yellow-coded “abnormally dry” category develop in some regions. It should not last too long if significant rain develops during the middle of next week. Don’t expect things to be this good (no drought) all Summer, though. It is rare to see no drought for an entire growing season.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Snowmelt 2011

Check out Tony’s blog post from yesterday for a recap of the month of May for Wausau and around our area. Just a couple of extra notes about the May numbers:

• Once again our average high temperature was well below normal but the average low temperature was slightly above normal. This is interesting in the context of the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) discussion. During the last few decades most of the warming that has occurred has been observed in overnight low temps, especially during the colder seasons. Our average high temps have not budged too much. Why might this be? I would suspect a part of this would be increased moisture in the air and part would be from the urban heat island effect. Here in Wausau, the city has grown up in all directions around the official observing station at the downtown airport.
• A slight correction to the average low temperature reported yesterday. The average low in Wausau in May was 45.6, which makes it 0.50 degrees above normal.
• The official last frost of the season in Wausau (we hope) occurred on May 4th with a low of 27, however there was a bit of frost within the city limits on May 27th when the official low was 33 at the airport.
• No real odd numerical trends with the highs and lows during the month. The most common high temperature was 65 which occurred on 4 different dates – the 6th, the 16th, the 18th, and the 27th.

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Biggest Pile of Snow Left on Rib Mountain

Next up, the snowmelt contest. I walked up on the slopes of Rib Mountain today in order to get a feeling of where the largest pile of snow is and how long it might be before it melts. There are at least five different patches of snow and probably more (I didn’t have time to survey the entire hill). However, there is probably only one that matters. It is a large mound of snow in an area where the ski resort builds a jump during the winter for skiers and sno- boarders to perform tricks and challenge their skills (and sanity). This is the place where the snow has melted last over the last two years. The other large patches of snow will likely go about a week before the large mound finally melts.

Biggest Pile of Snow - Different Angle

So how long will it last? In my estimation the large mound probably has 2 weeks left. I doubt it will take as long as 2009 when the final melt was on June 24th. If we have more days in the 80s than 60s and 70s during this first part of June, then it might only last 10 days. So those who picked June 10th or later have the best shot at winning. Be sure to check waow.com for daily updates on the progress of the snowmelt contest. We should have a snowmelt banner up soon where you can click and check the status.

A Smaller Patch of Snow on Rib Mountain

I will post pictures from time-to-time and this new page is where we will announce the winning date online and eventually list the top 5 winners of the R-store gift cards.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Monthly Recap, Snowmelt 2011