Before getting into any other subjects, I should bring everyone up to date on the latest El Nino/La Nina trend, which is one of the  more important ocean/atmosphere circulations we monitor. The latest ENSO diagnostic discussion indicates that the La Nina from this past Winter has ended. The central Pacific ocean surface temperatures are now basically neutral and are expected to stay that way for the next couple of months. By this Fall the computer model forecasts indicate a trend toward a weak El Nino. This is important. Almost every time we have an El Nino in the tropical Pacific we have warmer than normal Winter conditions here in Wisconsin and lower than normal snowfall.

CPC Model Projection

The stronger the El Nino, the warmer our Winter could be. Right now it looks like a weak El Nino will form at best, but it is early in the year, so there could be some notable changes yet before Fall arrives.

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And now a little follow-up on a subject that was much more prevalent last year but many people seem to have forgot about. As has been mentioned in many outlets outside of the mainstream media, the Fukushima nuclear disaster is not over and it is worse than thought. Spent fuel pools (as well as other parts of the reactor) are a grave danger to the U.S. according to at least one Senator who visited the site.

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In another follow-up, I sometimes bring a bevy of news and research that shows things are not as bad as originally portrayed, either for the present or into the future. Last year I blogged about how the trash in the Pacific is not as bad as originally reported. Now this year we have a finding that declares the trash in the ocean could be significant, just not in the way we might have thought in the past. A oceanographer researching in the Pacific found a lot of small particles of plastic a bit below the surface. These types of particles would normally float on the surface and be visible but wave and wind action drives them a few feet below the surface. Past surveys of ocean garbage generally only skimmed the surface water. Smaller particles could more easily find their way into the food chain and cause some disruptions. What is not know is whether these particles are all over the ocean. Maybe they are only in certain areas near manufacturing centers or shipping lanes, such as southeast Asia.

Also, in the not-as-bad-as-originally-proclaimed theme, during the past couple decades the AGW discussion has been peppered with proclamations about “increased storminess”, “more hurricanes”, “more floods”, even more tornadoes. In the case of tornadoes, every time there is a big outbreak, someone usually speculates as to whether the seemingly increasing number of tornadoes is due to AGW. In another, maybe it is not as bad as originally portrayed, the case for tornadoes is not clear cut. There are many factors in the atmosphere that have to be “just right” and these factors might not all come together to produce more tornadoes in the future even if we end up with some theoretical ranges in warming from AGW.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, ENSO Update, Environment, Oceans, Tornadoes

Photo from the National Weather Service

Five tornadoes tore through parts of southeast Colorado yesterday, leaving several injured and causing considerable damage to farming communities. 

According to the National Weather Service two tornadoes hit Prowers County, two tore through Kiowa County,  and one went through parts of Bent County in the early morning hours of April 27th.

According to the Denver office of the National Weather Service, overnight twisters in Colorado are rare.  The last time an overnight tornado hit the state was April 30th, 1942.  Ironically it hit the same two counties of Bent and Kiowa, the same areas hit this year.

For a look at the damage from the National Weather Service Survey team, follow this link: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pub&storyid=82413&source=0.

Posted under Environment, Natural Disasters, Nature, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Spring, Tornadoes, Weather History, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

There are numerous shows on TV, like on Discover Channel or the Weather Channel, that glorify storm chasing.  They make it look so fun and cool to be out racing down the highway trying to get right up next to a monster tornado.   Despite being pelted with hail stones, flying branches, torrential rain, and lighting, the vehicles press on with a sense of immortality.  As we all know, TV shows don’t always portray the whole story.  Certainly when it comes to tornado safety, these chasers often push the limits way beyond comprehension.

 Be that as it may, there is an ongoing debate and uncertainty about what is the best course of action if you are in a vehicle with an approaching tornado to deal with.  The conventional wisdom when I was growing up and even during the first decade of my weather forecasting career was that one should always leave the vehicle and go lie flat in a ditch or ravine and cover your head.  Over the past 15 years there have been some high profile cases where people were actually severely injured or killed by leaving their vehicles and going under overpasses or just going out in the open.  Now there is more of a recommendation to use your best judgement based on a number of factors whether to leave your car or not.  Below is a statement from Roger Edwards of the Storm Prediction Center that goes into more depth on this subject.

In a car or truck: Vehicles are extremely risky in a tornado. There is no safe option when caught in a tornado in a car, just slightly less-dangerous ones. If the tornado is visible, far away, and the traffic is light, you may be able to drive out of its path by moving at right angles to the tornado. Seek shelter in a sturdy building, or underground  if possible. If you are caught by extreme winds or flying debris, park the car as quickly and safely as possible — out of the traffic lanes. Stay in the car with the seat belt on. Put your head down below the windows; cover your head with your hands and a blanket, coat, or other cushion if possible. If you can safely get noticeably lower than the level of the roadway,leave your car and lie in that area, covering your head with your hands. Avoid seeking shelter under bridges, which can create deadly traffic hazards while offering little protection against flying debris.

We’ve all seen the horrific images of vehicles twisted around tree trunks 20 feet in the air, or turned upside down and crushed.  Or how about the photos of beams or lumber jabbed straight through a car window or door.  What a horrible thing if someone was in that vehicle in such cases.  I wish I had a hard and fast rule for you when it comes to automobiles and tornadoes.  I hope you never have to make such a tough decision but if you do, try not to panic.  Take care.

Posted under Education, Natural Disasters, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Tornadoes, Travel, Weather Safety

This is Tornado and Severe Weather Awareness Week in Wisconsin.  Luckily we haven’t had much in the way of severe thunderstorms yet, but that will likely change over the next month or so.  It’s always a good thing to review severe weather terms, safety tips, and refresh your severe weather preparedness plans.  Do you and your family members know what to do in a variety of situations whether you are at home, school, work, shopping, driving, or outside?  Please take time to look over this important information.  It could reduce your risk of injury or death from severe weather.

On Thursday, April 19, a tornado drill will be conducted.  At 1 pm, a test Tornado Watch will be issued for all of Wisconsin.  The test watch will be broadcast on NOAA Weather Radio as a Required Weekly Test–RWT.  At 1:45 pm, the NWS Green Bay office will issue a test Tornado Warning.  The test warning will be broadcast as a test on NOAA Weather Radio using the actual Tornado Warning code.  The drill will conclude at 2 pm.

Here’s the schedule for the tornado drill:

1:00 p.m.  -  A test Tornado Watch is issued for all of Wisconsin by the Storm Prediction Center

1:45 p.m.  -  NWS offices in Wisconsin issue test Tornado Warnings using actual Tornado Warning code (broadcast will state this is a test)

2 p.m.  – Drill ends with the issuances of test Severe Weather Statements

Should severe weather be present anywhere in Wisconsin on the day of the drill, the test watch and warnings will be postponed until Friday.  If severe weather is forecast for Friday, the drill will be canceled.  

Wisconsin Severe Weather Facts

Wisconsin averages 23 tornadoes per year, with most tornadoes occurring in the 3 to 9 P.M. time frame.  The peak tornado season in Wisconsin is May through August, with June having the greatest number of tornadoes.  A record-setting 62 tornadoes occurred in 2005.  In 2011, Wisconsin had 38 tornadoes, 15 in northeast Wisconsin alone!

The “average” Wisconsin tornado has a 10 minute duration, a path length of about 6 miles, and a damage width of about 125 yards.

Another hazard of the warm-season is powerful, straight-line thunderstorm winds that can exceed 60 mph.  Every year Wisconsin will get a few storms that generate hurricane-force winds of at least 75 to 100 mph.  Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are issued for these wind events.

Large hail is also a hazard with thunderstorms.  Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are also issued for storms with hail of at least 1″ in diameter.

Other warm-season hazards localized flash floods or widespread river and lowland flooding, lightning, and excessive heat.

To learn much more about all types of severe weather that impacts our region please go to these great link from the National Weather Service. 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/?n=taw-part4-tornado_stats

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grb/?n=safety

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grb/outreach/TAW/TAW5.pdf

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grb/outreach/TAW/TAW2.pdf

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grb/outreach/TAW/TAW3.pdf

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grb/outreach/TAW/TAW1.pdf

Posted under Severe Weather, Storms, Tornadoes, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

While we could have a rumble of thunder around here Monday night into early Tuesday, it appears the main threat of strong or severe thunderstorms will remain from far southern Wisconsin down through the Kansas area Tuesday afternoon.  That region is under a slight risk classification from the Storm Prediction Center.  The reason is that warm, and more humid air will be surging north ahead of a cold front.  Temperatures there could reach the 70s making the air rather unstable.  The cold front would be the trigger to lift the air and initiate the storms.  Strong winds in the atmosphere and turning wind direction in height could allow several of the cells to become supercells with rotation.  Thus a few tornadoes are possible, especially from west-central Illinois into Missouri.  Otherwise damaging winds over 50 mph and hail to 1.5″ diameter will be possible as far north as Janesville, WI.

On a different note, I did a talk at the Simek Library in Medford Saturday regarding weather technology and other topics.  One question from the audience came up regarding the Fujita scale.  That scale has been around for numerous decades as it was developed by Dr. Theodore Fujita in the 1960s and 70s.  It ranks tornado strength on a scale from F0 to F5, with F5 being the strongest.   Research in the past 10 years regarding how winds damage buildings has allowed an upgrade to the scale.   It is now called the Enhanced Fujita scale or EF scale.  You can read all about the scale and how it’s applied by reading this article from the Storm Prediction Center.  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/

Posted under forecast, Severe Weather, Spring, Storms, Tornadoes

There have already been well above normal tornadoes for this point in the year across the country.  You’ve probably heard about the violent outbreak Tuesday night in parts of Kansas and Misssouri. 

Actually the severe storm swath covered parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, and Kentucky.   The preliminary tally indicates 21 tornadoes, 165 reports of winds over 58 mph, and 37 large hail reports.  The map below from Storm Prediction Center shows the coverage.

Go to this link from the National Weather Service in Wichita, KS to find out what weather conditions came together to produce the outbreak.  Plus you can see many amazing photos of the tornadoes and damage.  By the way, it was part of the same system which br0ught the heavy snow, sleet, rain, and wind to Wisconsin.  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ict&storyid=79763&source=0

Posted under Spring, Storms, Tornadoes

You’ve probably heard about the devastating tornadoes that ripped through the Deep South late Sunday night.  The preliminary count from Storm Prediction Center is around 22 twisters.  

  Some were fairly strong with winds estimated up to 150 mph.  The cause was a sharp trough of low pressure moving east from the Plains.  Warm and humid air was surging north from the Gulf of Mexico to collide with the colder air in place farther north.  As you’ll see in the map below from the Storm Prediction Center from Sunday evening, dew points had climbed to the 60s around part of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama along a warm front where most of the twisters occurred. 

 Very strong atmospheric winds were moving in from the west.   The winds were turning in direction with height, which is another important factor for forming violent tornadoes.  We can only hope we d0n’t have as active of a spring as last year for severe weather.  Numerous major low pressure systems marched from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and set up a frequent battleground in that area in late winter and spring 2011.

STRONG SOLAR STORM IMPACTING EARTH

On a different note, a strong solar flare erupted from the sun Sunday evening with possible impacts to aircraft communications near the Earth’s poles.   Besides the flare, a Coronal Mass Ejection accompanied this event.  A geomagnetic storm is expected to develop around 8 a.m. CST Tuesday, continuing into Wednesday.  It could be a moderate intensity (G2).

From NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory showing the solar flare that erupted Sunday evening

This may affect power grids, where voltage corrections may be required along with false alarms set off on some protective devices.  A few spotty satellite navigation and low-frequency rado navigation problems may also develop.

Finally, high latitude locations could be fortunate enough to have some decent auroras.  Let’s hope our skies are fairly clear around here.

Posted under astronomy, Severe Weather, Space, Storms, Tornadoes, Weather NEws

Since our weather looks fairly dry and boring around here for several days I thought you might like to ponder some of the craziest weather events that have ever hit the planet Earth.  Well, that is the craziest events that humans have had the fortune of recording.

TEMPERATURE

• Highest:  136 F   Sept. 13, 1922    El Azizia, Libya
• Lowest:  -128 F   July 21, 1983     Vostok, Antarctica

AIR PRESSURE

• Highest (Sea Level):  31.99″ Hg    Dec. 31, 1968   Agata, Russia
• Lowest (Sea Level):  25.69″ Hg     Oct. 12, 1979   Eye of Typhoon Tip

RAINFALL

• Greatest 1 minute:  1.23″   July 4, 1956    Unionville, Maryland
• Greatest 1 hour:   12.0″     June 22, 1947   Holt, Missouri
• Greatest 24 hour:  71.8″   Jan. 7-8, 1966   Foc-Foc, La Reunion
• Greatest 72 hour:  154.7″   Feb. 24-26, 2007    Cratere Commerson, La Reunion
• Greatest 12 month:  1042″   Aug. 1860 – Jul. 1861    Cherrapunji, India

SNOWFALL

• Greatest 24 hour:   76″    Apr. 14-15, 1921     Silver Lake, Colorado
• Greatest season:  1140″   winter of 1998-99    Mount Baker, Washington

HAIL

• Heaviest:  2.25 lb.  Apr. 4, 1986    Gopalganj District, Bangladesh

DRYNESS

•  Longest drought:  173 months     Oct. 1903 – Jan. 1918     Arica, Chile

WIND

• Maximum Gust (non-tornado):  253 mph     Apr. 10, 1996   Barrow Island, Australia

TORNADO

• Deadliest single tornado:  1300 deaths   Apr. 26, 1989     Manikganj District, Bangladesh
• Longest lasting:  219 miles / 3.5 hours    Mar. 18, 1925    Ellington, Missouri to Princeton, Indiana
• Widest:  2.5 miles       May 22, 2004      Hallam, Nebraska
• Highest torandic wind:  302 mph      May 3, 1999    Bridge Creek, Oklahoma

WELL, AS THEY SAY….RECORDS ARE MEANT TO BE BROKEN.  Some of these weather records are just unbelievable.  Hard to imagine that they could ever be eclipsed.   If you would like to view many more weather records from around the world including an interactive map that plots where they occurred, check out this link.  http://wmo.asu.edu/maps/map.html

Have fun!

Posted under Drought, Natural Disasters, Records, Tornadoes, World Weather

First I want to again highlight the National Weather Service survey of the tornado that hit Clark county on Tuesday (as Rob did yesterday as well). Yesterday I provided a very rough preliminary estimate of where the tornado traveled just based on viewer reports and pictures. It turns out the tornado took a more west to east path, instead of northwest to southeast.

Tornado Path, Loyal to Chili

Instead of starting a couple miles east of Loyal, it was a couple miles south of of that community. It then traveled mostly eastward for about 7.2 miles and lifted just a little northeast of Chili.

If it had continued for another 5 miles or so, it would have likely affected the south side of Marshfield. The tornado was rated an EF2 with estimated winds of 120 to 130 mph, which makes it just a little weaker than the tornado that hit Merrill earlier this year.

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Now on to one of my other favorite subjects (besides the weather) and that is alternative energy and technological progress. We live in a fast paced world and new developments are happening every day, but sometimes we hit a few speed bumps. Not everything progresses smoothly. For those hoping for the solar power revolution to really take-off (me included), it seems things might be stalled just a bit. Many analysts of the solar power industry say there is an oversupply right now and that this will hurt profitability at many companies. It has hurt enough to cause a few companies to go out of business. It is not much surprise to me that the new companies supported primarily by government loans here in the U.S. have failed. Evergreen solar unfortunately filed for bankruptcy and Solyndra is not doing too hot either.

What is more disturbing and sad is that privately funded Spectrawatt has also gone belly up. This was a company spun off by Intel, the computer chip manufacturing giant.

The common themes for the profitability problems are oversupply, loss of government subsidies, and competition from China. The only way to beat the competition from China is to go toward more automated production (like First Solar? Although even they are manufacturing more in Malaysia). The government subsidies will probably be meager for a few years to come because most developed-nations are functionally insolvent. They won’t have much money to spare on solar subsidies in the near future. The over supply situation cuts both ways. Over supply can lead to lower prices which can eventually lead to more people buying the product. It is a dynamic relationship that might favor strongest players in the market. In any case, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a couple more solar power company bankruptcies in the near year or so. Overall, I suspect the trend toward more solar power adoption will continue because the price per watt keeps coming down every year while the price of traditional fossil fuels remains high.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Severe Weather, Technology, Tornadoes

Tuesday’s tornado in Clark County indirectly caused the death of an elderly man in hospice care according to the Wisconsin Emergency Operations Center. 

The National Weather Service said the EF2 twister packed wind speeds between 120 and 130 miles an hour.  That caused power outages, a contributing factor to the death in Clark County. 

Two people were injured by the tornado as eight homes and barns were destroyed.  An additional 19 were damaged.  The tornado causing the damage has been rated as an EF2 on the Enhanced Fujita scale.  The National Weather Service office in La Crosse says the tornado packed winds of 120 to 130 miles and hour.

A weaker EF0 tornado moved through rural areas of eastern Shawano County. 

The Clark County twister touched down at 5:05 PM seven miles northwest of Chili.  The tornado ripped up a path 7.2 miles long mowing over homes, farms and fields.  According to the National Weather Service the vortex was as wide as 200 yards.  Click HERE for a complete report including photos and radar images of the storms from the National Weather Service. 

The weaker EF0 tornado in Shawano County roared over mainly fields and forested areas near Briarton.  Several trees were reported being taken out by the tornado.  Click HERE for a complete report from the National Weather Service. 

The addition of three tornadoes in the last two weeks means Wisconsin has now seen 35 tornadoes in 2011.  That is well higher than the 30-year average of just 23, according to the National Weather Service records. 

In addition to the confirmed pair of tornadoes, large hail in excess of 1.75″ was spotted in Clark County and 1.25″ in Neilsville. 

For continuing coverage including a photo slideshow of images submitted by viewers, click HERE to be taken to Newsline 9′s exclusive storm coverage web page.

Posted under Natural Disasters, Records, Severe Weather, Tornadoes, Viewer pictures, Weather NEws, Weather Safety