Even with better than ever technology and forecast models, tracking tropical systems is no easy project.  Tropical Storm Debby is a good example.  I looked at various models Sunday and they show Debby moving anywhere from the northeast coast of Texas to northeast Florida by Tuesday morning.  The current National Hurricane Center gives Debby a track almost due north into the central Florida Panhandle the next few days. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just to give you any idea of the uncertainty forecasters are facing, look at these various model projections from Sunday for Debby’s track.

First the HWRF takes her to just off the southeast Louisiana Coast by 7 a.m. Tuesday.  You can spot where it is by the series of black circular lines and letter L in the Gulf of Mexico, along with a bullseye of green and blue.  That’s the heavy rainfall associated with it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The next three models, GFDL, NAM, and ECWMF push Debby to a position south of the western Florida Panhandle by Tuesday morning.  The NAM is a good 100 miles farther south though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Finally the GFS model from Sunday morning was showing Debby centered up toward Jacksonville on the northeast side of Florida by Tuesday morning. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It will certainly be interesting to see how this tropical system pans out.  One thing the various models have been pretty consistent with is the strength of Debby.  Most keep her power limited to a tropical storm or possibly a minimal hurricane briefly.  Good luck to all who are in the path.  I hope the flooding, surge,  and wind is not too bad.

Posted under Hurricanes, Natural Disasters, Tropics

Even with non-stop media coverage of Hurricane Irene slamming the Eastern Seaboard this weekend it’s easy to overlook the storm’s details. 

Reports from weathercasters and journalists standing in the storm focus on getting the most important information out first and foremost.

We hear a lot about how much rain is falling and where the strongest wind gusts have been so far.  We know about the evacuations and the historic implications the storm has already had on New York City before the worst of it arrives. 

But if you’re looking for an extremely detailed breakdown of the hurricane direct from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration you’ve come to the right place. 

Click HERE to go straight to the official Hurricane Irene Quick Look page.  This will provide you with a feed of instant storm analysis from the 14 active monitoring stations along the coast being impacted by the storm. 

You can also see in graphical form the progession of wind gusts, water levels, and barometric pressure as the storm moves over each station. 

Hurricane Irene has weakend a bit but considering it’s path it doesn’t need to be a strong hurricane to do extreme damage.  No matter what the outcome this will be one storm that we study, talk about, and reference for quite some time to come. 

 

Posted under Hurricanes, Natural Disasters, Oceans, Severe Weather, Storms, Tropics, Viewer pictures, Weather History, Weather NEws

The forecasts are in….and it seems everyone is predicting an active hurricane season.  The season which officially begins June 1st and runs through Nov 30th is being forecasted as an above average one by both Colorado State University and AccuWeather who both came out with their forecasts this past week.  One of the main reasons we are seeing the above average forecasts is the warm ocean waters

AccuWeather came out with there forecast last week which calls for 15 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 of them major.

CSU is forecasting 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.  A major hurricane is a Cat 3 or higher with winds above 111 mph.

Last year we saw 19 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major storms.  The average in a years breaks down like this: 9-12 tropical storms, 5-7 hurricanes and 1-3 major.  Last season was compared to the most active season, 2005.  If you talk to most folks though it didn’t seem active, espcially for people affected by the ‘canes.  The reason is most storms either stayed out to sea or affect areas besides the United States like Mexico and the Carribean islands. 

To read the full reports you can check out CSU description and AccuWeathers anyalisis.

Posted under Hurricanes, International Weather, Oceans, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Tropics, Weather History, Weather NEws

I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday weekend and enjoyed the time with family and friends.  The festive season is upon us but it looks like no real snow makers are in the near future.  I don’t know about you but if it is going to be cold I just want it to snow… or not be cold!

I forgot to mention this weekend that you can check out my continuation to my outdoor reports by seeing just what a hodag is and why it represents one Northwoods community.   It is a funny and cute story.  We had alot of fun with the history of the creature. 

Lastly since hurricane season ends tomorrow I thought I would just touch on what kind of a year we saw….

Overall we saw the busiest Atlantic hurricanes on record, where as the North Pacific cause the fewest storms on record since the “satellite era” began. 

The Atlantic had a total of 19 named storms which ties with 1887 ( so surprised by this!!) and 1995 for third highest on record.  12 became hurricanes which ties 1969 for the second most hurricanes in a season.  Out of those hurricanes 5 reached hurricane status of Cat 3 or more which is a major hurricane.  These numbers were in the range of what was originally predicted. 

As stated at the beginning of the year the high Atlantic count was due to favorable climate factors: warm waters, favorable winds of Africa and weak wind shear from the newly formed La Nina. 

Luckily what was in the US favor was the small scale factors.  The jet stream’s position contributed to warm and dry weather across the eastern US which pushed most of the storms out to sea.  There was a common trend of storms running parallel the Untied States and eventual curving back out to sea.

For more information and the write up from NOAA click here!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Tropics, Weather NEws, Weather Safety, Winter Weather

Oh Halloween how you come and go!  I can’t believe that we are kicking off November tomorrow.  Looking at October we will go down as a dry month with deficit probably close to a half an inch.  The real numbers won’t come out until tomorrow but I am thinking that it will be end up being an above average month in the way of temps but below in rain. 

Just wanted to share a link about the Hurricane that is pounding the Carribean.  Although Sept is usually the most active month sometimes we forget they can happen into the winter months.  This storm ripped through St. Lucia causing power outages, downed trees and roofs blown off. 

He will continue to move through the Caribbean eventually bring effects to  Jamaica, Haiti or the Dominican Republic.  This could be horrible for Haiti which is still in recovery mode from the Earthquake in January.  They issued the second highest storm alert, orange to warn residents.  Unfortunately most people are still living in tent cities.

Here is another article talking about what it will mean for the country.

Last year I blogged about the “perfect storm”.  Most people have heard of it since the book and movie were made.  It was the storm that formed from conditions you would only see in text books. For more info check out my blog post.

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under forecast, Monthly Recap, Tropics

It has been the talk of the Midwest! I wrote about it yesterday and Justin blogged about it this morning.  This storm could possibly be the storm of the season.  Articles around the Midwest and talking about how this storm is comparable to the worst storm that we have seen in the past century.  Justin mentioned that we saw a storm in 1998 that the center passed just to our Northwest over Duluth, Minnesota.  He says that this storm was the strongest recorded.  I was doing some research to try and figure out exactly what the strongest storms in history are.  Here is what I figured out:

The Nov 10th 1998 storm lowest barometric pressure reading was 28.475″ which equals 964.3 mb.  This was recorded at Duluth.

The storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald had a pressure reading of 28.95″ at its lowest point which equals 980.4 mb.

The “Great Ohio Blizzard” of January 1978 the lowest pressure was recorded as 28.05″ which equals 949.9 mb.

So far those are all the reading that I can come up with of storms that have been the strongest in the last century that have had readings near what we should see for tomorrow.  This in article with the pressure from the last two storms.  This is the records from the 1998 storm.

Looking at this map of tomorrow morning you can see that we are near the 960 mb.  Now this is model data so depending on how low we get will depend on where we get marked down in the record books.

Now this is “comparable” to the pressure of a hurricane but a few things to note that are completely different.  A hurricane is fueled by warm moist ocean waters.  Midwest cyclones are fueled by the jet stream.  So although readings are similar what it means at the surface and for us are different. 

What do you need to know about tomorrow?  Most of us are under a High Wind Warning espcially to the south of 29.  This means wind gusts could range in the 55 to 60 mph zone.  An Advisory has been issued for the rest of us and winds will reach gusts to 40 to 45 mph.  These winds could knock down trees, power lines and throw outdoor furniture across roadways.  These winds are near what we would see in a severe storm and will not just last for a short period but for a much longer period, almost 36 hours!  The warnings/advisories will be in place from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening. 

We will keep you posted with all the latest so make sure to stay tuned to our webchannel and Channel 9!

PS Our first snow is in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Fall, First Snowfall 2010, forecast, Records, Severe Weather, Storms, Tropics, Uncategorized, Weather NEws, Weather Safety, Winter Weather

The strongest typhoon this year, Megi, in the Pacific is bearing down on the Philippines.  The winds are sustained at near 180 mph but have been as high as 190 mph! This is as strong as the major Category 5 hurricane for us.   It will likely bring wide spread catastrophic damage across the Islands. Heavy rain and destructive winds will be the biggest predators from this system to the islands.  The typhoon will likely weaken as it moves over the Philippines northern island, Luzon.

With the 20 inches or more that are forecasted for islands, landslides will also be possible and likely.  I think that we will be seeing unbelievable footage and pictures from the aftermath that this storm will put on the area. 

Something interesting to note, once the typhoon hits the Philippines they will change the name to Juan because they use a different naming system then rest of western Pacific countries.   They do this so the names are more familiar to people in their own country.   It can cause confusion though since a person could think it is actually two different systems when they are actually talking about the same one.  When a typhoon forms they can pick from the list of the 17 countires that submitted a name for that year. 

Whats the difference between a Typhoon and a Hurricane? A Typhoon includes Cats 1 to 4 of a hurricane.  A Super Typhoon is part of Cat 4 and 5. So mainly it is just a name since the Typhoon does not add Categories.  

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Natural Disasters, Travel, Tropics, Weather NEws

I can’t believe that it is almost October, and that some places up north are almost to peak for fall color!  Fall officially started a week ago but across the area it has felt like fall the entire month of September.  Fall is such a gorgeous time of the year with the leaves changing colors.  I have talked about this a few times but I can truly say the season I probably missed most living in Florida and Texas was fall.  The natural beauty that fall brings really is spectacular.

Last year I wrote an article about why leaves change.  That is always a common question that people seem interested in.  So if you want to know the answer you can check out this link.  I’ll give you a clue, it has to do with the sun!

If you haven’t had a chance to get out and experience the colors for yourself you can look at this link to find out how far along your colors are! The site also has great ideas and maps on where to go to see the leaves.  I know that I am going to head up to Rib Mountain soon, before it’s to late!

Here is the map of colors across the state:

 

Last but not least! We saw our next Tropical Storm today, Tropical Storm Nicole.  But she was very short lived.  She was only a tropical storm for around 7 hours!  Her last advisory was just issued so she is no more.  One thing she did though bring LOTS of rain to Florida.

Have a great day tomorrow in enjoy the beautiful fall weather! I will on the golf course!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Fall, Fall Color, Tropics

Hey everyone! Lots going on at Newsline 9 these days.  We have a new partnership that we are in the works on, I don’t think we are allowed to reveal the details just yet but it will be a great way for you to receive more information from us and just another way to get the forecast you need.  We will let you know what exactly that is in the up coming days.

I also wanted to direct you to my “Have You Ever Wondered Page?” I wrote another article on the site about snow to rain equivalent.  This is a question that gets asked often.  How many inches of snow would fall with the rain we saw or vice versus.  I will give you one clue… it depends on the temp! For more information head over to my page.

Other news… you only have 3 days to get your nominations in for our FIRST snowfall of the year contest.  Your nominations have to be in by Oct 1st, so don’t delay! You can win lots of prizes including R Store gift cards and car washes.  It is really simple to enter just head over to this link. Remember you are picking the first one inch of more of snow in the Wausau area.  We will go off of the National Weather Service data once we start to see that snow falling. 

Last but not least we may see our next storm in the Atlantic sometime over the next day or so. Right now it is Tropical Depression 16.  As I was talking to my folks today they said they were “getting ready for the rain”.  This storm will move across the Peninsula and eventually up the Carolinas and could even hit New York this weekend.  It has already brought over 6 inches in some areas of Florida! Seems like they are dealing with the amount of rain we saw last week.  For the totals you can click here.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under First Snowfall 2010, Flooding, forecast, Tropics, Weather History, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

We keep talking about fall fall fall but really it isn’t even fall. Not OFFICIALLY at least! The official start to fall is 10:09 central time on Wednesday, September 22nd.  So we still have 2 days and almost 12 hours until we can say it really is Fall.  So what officially causes the fall season to start???

Here is a link I did to a blog last year about what the “September Equinox” really is. Funniest part about my blog… the end I say, “but it won’t feel like it”.  As we showed last week and blogged about this year is completely opposite of our summer like Sept in 09.

Alright now that we are talking about Fall lets talk about something else.. SNOW! We have another snow contest to talk about.  This contest involves when we will see the first snowfall in Wausau.  The contest begins today and will go through October 1st at midnight.  What are you guessing? You are guessing the date that we will see ONE INCH of snowfall in Wausau.  The official data will be reported by the National Weather Service in their daily climate report that we record everyday.  Just to make sure you understand it has to be one inch on one day.  So if it occurs overnight the day that received the over one inch will be the day that wins!

This contest is so EASY to sign up.  If you go to the weather page and click below the seven day forecast or just click this link directly.  You know what else is cool about this contest? You can have your own contest among friends and family! Once you sign up you can create a private group and invite others to be apart of it, so send it to your friends!

Prizes will include R Store gift cars and car washes, who can beat that when winter is right around the corner and all those salt truck will be out!  

It seems like we have been talking about Igor for a long long time, well atleast a week!  I did a few blogs about the storm this week so I thought I would mention him this morning.  It finally made impact on some land mass last night and that was Bermuda.  From what I have read in reports andarticles this morning the closet the hurricane was from the Islandwas 17 miles around Midnight last night ( most reports are saying around 40 miles).  All things considered I think the British Isle really lucked out.  The storm was downgraded to a Cat 1, remember at one point it was a major hurricane at Cat 4 strength and knocked on the door of Cat 5.  So far no widespread damage has been reported  although electricity went out across the island almost 1/4 of the Island was without power this morning.. 

Have a wonderful work week! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Fall, forecast, Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Summer, Travel, Tropics, Weather NEws, Winter Weather