A magnitude 7.5 earthquake hit off the west coast of southeastern Alaska just before 3 a.m. CST Saturday.  The following information is taken from the USGS website.  There was a tsunami warning in effect Saturday for portions of the Pacific Basin, but it has since been cancelled.

Tectonic Summary

Posted under Earthquake, Natural Disasters, Tsunami

Photo from the Associated Press

A boat that was part of the five million tons of “stuff” thrown into the Pacific Ocean during the massive Japanese earthquake and tsunami has been spotted off the Canadian Coast. 

The Associated Press is reporting that the 65-meter long boat is moving toward land, 160 miles off the coastline of British Columbia. 

To put that in perspective, if you were driving down Interstate 39, that’s about 20 miles farther than the distance between Wausau and Madison!

The horrific earthquake and tsunami struck Japan just over one year ago on March 11, 2011.  More than 15,000 people died and it brought about one of the biggest nuclear power plant scares in years.    

According to The Toronto Star, there is no environmental concerns over the abandoned ship, but mariners in the Pacific Ocean need to take warning because “the vessel poses a potential navigational hazard.”

Photo from National Geographic

Posted under Earthquake, Environment, Flooding, Geology, Natural Disasters, Nature, Oceans, Tsunami, Uncategorized, Weather History, Weather NEws

We have heard through the last few years about how the weather is supposedly getting more “wild” or extreme, primarily due to anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and there is some data that seems to back this up. Insured losses have been increasing in recent years and last year was the worst. 2011 was the costliest year of natural disasters on record, totaling 380 billion across the world!

One thing to remember, and something many commentators have pointed out, is that this is a record for INSURED losses. This plays a part in trying to assess any increase in extreme weather. Just because insured losses hit a record, does not necessarily mean that there were more devastating weather events. If could be that the worst weather of the year just happened to hit highly populated “expensive” areas of the world. The previous record year was 2005 when category 5 hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the gulf coast of the U.S. including the major population center of New Orleans. There have been other years with category 5 hurricanes that were unremarkable for insured losses because the hurricanes did not strike populated areas. So in order to know for sure that extreme weather is increasing, we will need to consider objective data besides insured losses. Climatologists have been busy tabulating the number of flood events, amounts of rainfall, number of heat waves, the number of record temperature events, and many other things. So far, the one trend that has been confirmed is that the frequency of heavy rain events is increasing in many parts of the world. At this page you can find some data about severe weather (including heavy rain) and whether or not it is increasing.

Satellite image of hurricane Katrina

Many other trends in extreme weather have not been robustly confirmed. There has been much debate about whether hurricanes have increased in number and/or intensity in recent decades. Many people expect this should be (or will be) the case because the temperature of the oceans has gone up a little and the heat content of the ocean is one of the key drivers of hurricanes. Reality has not kept up with these expectations. Hurricanes are complex weather phenomena and the temperature of the ocean is only one factor. Wind shear is quite important as well. A recent study by Christopher Landsea has found no substantial direct link between hurricanes and AGW and suggests that effects will be negligible through 2100. Once Landsea factored in population growth along the coast of the U.S. and better monitoring techniques, the apparent increase in insured losses and number/intensity of hurricanes was not substantial.

Japan Tsunami

Which brings us back to the record year of insured losses in 2011. It would not have been a record year for insured losses of natural disasters except for one event and you can probably guess what it was – the Japan earthquake and tsunami.  The earthquake and tsunami resulted in an estimated 210 billion in insured losses. Taking out that one event and we end up with only 170 billion in losses. It was still a bad year for “bad” weather and natural disasters, but 170 billion is 50 billion less than the previous record of 220 billion in 2005. Since earthquakes and tsunamis are not directly weather related, this should be kept in mind when using insured losses as a metric of whether extreme weather is increasing.

When discussing extreme weather and AGW, the vast majority of the content is negative. The basic premise is that AGW is going to theoretically destroy the environment. Once in a while though, something positive makes it into the discussion. In the past, the few positive aspects of the theoretical future warming hinge upon more areas around the poles becoming more habitable. The frozen north of Canada (and Siberia) might become a productive growing area.

Extent of the last ice age

Another potential positive (I think it is a good thing anyway), is that theoretical AGW might stall the onset of the next ice age. According to some geologists we are already overdo for an ice age. According to this latest research, an new ice age should begin within the next 1,500 years but the co-authors claim AGW will delay or prevent it. This is a good thing because if the planet became 5 degrees colder instead of 5 degrees warmer, we would have much bigger problems, in my opinion. Colder temps would mean an expansion of frozen tundra and the ice caps and likely lead to much less rainfall due to colder ocean temps and more water being locked up as ice at the poles. The would be much less space for agriculture. Much suffering would ensue. I am not saying hooray for AGW, but I am saying that delaying the next ice age is a good thing. If it a new ice age was upon us, we would probably be compelled to spend a lot of resources figuring out ways to warm up the planet.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Hurricanes, International Weather, Natural Disasters, Severe Weather, Storms, Tsunami, World Weather

Yet another follow-up to start out today’s blog post – something that mainstream media sources have ceased covering even though the situation seems to get worse by the day. It is the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. While the country’s economy has returned to a reasonable amount of normalcy, the danger is not gone.

Before getting into the latest news I just want to highlight the fact that there was a massive cover-up (or massive incompetence) on the part of TEPCO from the beginning of the nuclear (meltdown). I have heard that it is a cultural tendency in Japan to not over-exaggerate, to remain reserved in a time of crisis and not cause panic. Perhaps this is why there was so little credible information released about the nuclear meltdown. I had always thought of Japan as a place where honesty and integrity would reign above all else, but this nuclear situation has made me re-consider.

The news is that there have been some scary aftershocks in some areas where other nuke plants oerate AND that a much higher level of LETHAL radiation is still spewing from the Fukushima meltdown area and that the contamination has spread into more soil, cows, and water, than originally reported. I haven’t heard any reports of the current actions being taken by TEPCO but I can’t believe the resolution to this disaster isn’t further along. At least one physicist – Michio Kaku – said from the beginning that they should just start dumping cement on the nuclear site (like Cherynobl) and create a sarcophagus. That was probably the best solution all along.

In related news, as I highlighted last month, Germany’s decision to phase out nuclear power completely is going to cost them. Here is another look at the challenges and cost of going nuke-free.

In Japan, in order to replace the lost energy from the nuke plants, they are exploring the feasibility of recovering methane hydrates from the ocean floor. Environmentalists will complain that this energy source is not “green” or low carbon, but in a world of slowly declining amounts of cheap oil, countries will try to bridge the gap by any means possible, all the while working on better renewable sources.

Even though many government bureaucrats have soured on nuclear power, there are still some companies working on better designs that could help solve our energy problems while also being more safe. Terrapower is one such company working on a travelling wave reactor design it hopes to have producing energy at commercial scale by 2016. It will be quite costly to build but if it is substantially more safe, then it might find a home somewhere on the planet.

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In weather news, the latest ENSO diagnostic discussion is out and the trend is still neutral for the next couple of months. Surface temperatures in the central Pacific ocean over the past month have remained close to normal however, the sub-surface temperatures have been trending a little toward La Nina. The computer model projections are still indecisive with 50% of them indicating more-or-less neutral conditions through the upcoming winter and the other half indicating a weak La Nina could form. Something interesting (that I have highlighted in previous ENSO blog posts) in the computer models is that the COLA CCSM3 model is still almost all by itself forecasting El Nino conditions for the winter. There seems to be a warm bias in this model as it has forecast El Nino to develop for 3 months running.

If La Nina does develop again, even if it is a weak one, we will probably hear a big groan coming from the southern U.S. because this could prolong the massive drought. The latest U.S. drought monitor shows only very very slight improvement in the drought over Texas, due to tropical storm Don, which dropped some rain in the far south of Texas. Three other states are completely covered in at least some category of drought. Those would be Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Louisiana. In Wisconsin, the abnormally dry regions shrunk about 2 percent in the past week. I doubt it will get any worse over the next week but we might not see too much improvement either. We have two chance of rain – once Saturday night into Sunday morning and another Monday night into Tuesday. Neither of these storm systems looks to be huge rainmakers.

Have a nice weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update, Technology, Tsunami

Remember the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan that got hit by the earthquake and tsunami. It turns out that the damage was much more significant than authorities let on in the beginning. Apparently there was a complete meltdown of three reactors and a partial meltdown of the fourth on the day of the tragedy. Much more radiation was released than was told the public and it was (and still is) a much greater health hazard than everyone was led to believe.

When it was thought that there was no meltdown (by most of the world except insiders at TEPCO), many opined that nuclear power was still a viable option for future power needs – a cleaner greener option with less carbon dioxide emissions. Since then, things have really soured. Not only is Japan thinking about scaling back nuclear power, Germany is beginning a plan to phase it out as well. The problem with phasing out such a significant source of energy is that it will make electricity much more expensive. At this point, Germany plans to make up for the lack of electricity from nuclear power with off shore winds farms which are more expensive and produce intermittent power. Also, wind turbines do not come without side effects. While they are currently the “greenest” alternative energy option, they do have adverse effects on the weather, flying animals, and perhaps fish. Some scientists suspect that the constant droning sound of the wind turbines might stress some aquatic life.

Back in Japan, ground zero of the meltdown, they are already feeling the effects of living without nuclear power and much of the rest of the world is mulling transitioning to other forms of “green energy”. Various countries are looking toward alternatives not only because of safety issues but because a recent study has shown that nuclear power is not as scalable as many people previously thought. The study indicates that we could probably triple our current nuclear power before the rising cost became unsustainable. If we wanted to power the world with nuclear (fission) we would need to increase our nuclear capacity by about 45 times. So it looks less and less likely that nuclear fission will be the energy of the future. It might even be rapidly phased out if the price of other energy options continues to decline (like solar). I am still holding out some hope for nuclear fusion. In the next couple of years, while wind and solar power gain traction, natural gas could become the cleaner, cheaper, and slightly “greener” fuel of choice to keep society afloat.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Earthquake, Tsunami

The world continues to be fixated by the environmental disaster in Japan. The USGS recently upgraded the magnitude to 9.0 from the original estimate of 8.9. It is also estimated that the fault line might have moved (or slipped – in earthquake terminology) anywhere between 20 and 40 meters (between 66 and 131 feet). The entire island of Japan might have moved as much as 8 feet. Seeing how ocean water remained in shallow coastal areas a couple days after the quake and tsunami makes me wonder if a few spots are also now at a lower elevation. Given so much movement of the earth’s crust, I am surprised more areas of Japan did not experience structural failures. It is a testament to Japan’s earthquake preparedness that the tragedy was not worse.

Something else that people around the world have been mesmerized by is the giant whirlpool that developed near one of the harbors immediately after the quake and tsunami. While the whirlpool did not pose much of a threat to anyone, it did look quite ominous. Even after reading the explanation in the article linked above, I am still not 100% sure how whirlpools form, however, it is not unreasonable to expect some swirls when such a large volume of water is moving onshore and out again during a tsunami.

In an interesting side note, another famed city that was rumored to have been swallowed by the sea might have been found. A group of researchers claims to have found the lost city of Atlantis on the southwest coast of Spain. It is buried under a large marshy area. According to their data, the buried city looks very similar to ancient drawings that depicted Atlantis.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Earthquake, Natural Disasters, Tsunami, Weather History

This morning during my live radio broadcast with a Duluth, MN station, I was asked…”could we have a tsunami on Lake Superior?”  My quick response was not really, since we don’t have significant earthquakes in the Great Lakes region.  Well who knows, maybe we did thousands of years ago.  I did say though, that if an asteroid plunged into Lake Superior, it is very likely a tsunami of epic proportions would probably develop.  By the way, did you know that tides cause by the moon’s gravitation pull, are very miniscule on the Great Lakes, only 2 inches at a maximum in the spring.

Saxon Harbor. Courtesy of Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

I must say though, water level rises and falls are nothing new to the Great Lakes.  We do have storm surges on the Great Lakes.  This is basically a “piling up” of the water as strong sustained winds from one direction push the water toward the other side of the lake.  This even happens on Lake Winnebago.  These storm surges can change the water level up to 6 or 8 feet in extreme cases.  Below is an example from Lake Erie.  A powerful autumn storm caused 50 mph winds from the west over a two day period.  The first pictures show the exposed lake bottom near the shore at Fermi Power Plant in Michigan on the west tip of Lake Erie.  A chart shows the corresponding timeline of water drop.  The second set of pictures and charts shows the conditions on the east end of Lake Erie where the water was piling up near Buffalo, NY and Erie, PA.

Courtesy GLERL

Courtesy GLERL

Courtesy GLERL

Water Rise on Eastern Lake Erie. Nov. 11-13, 2003. Courtesy GLERL

SEICHES

There is a very special kind of water level change called a seiche.  It is a French word that means “to sway back and forth”.   A seiche is a standing wave that oscillates in a closed body of water, such as a lake, bay, or gulf.  It creates huge fluctuation of water levels in just moments.  It rocks back and forth until it reaches equilibrium.  In the Great Lakes it usually forms near a potent squall line of thunderstorms, due to dramatic changes in air pressure, or a sudden drop in wind speed.  Seiches can damage shorelines, boats, and property, cause flooding, and be dangerous to unsuspecting humans who might be near the shore.  Below you will find a link to an excellent eyewitness account of a tremendous seiche that struck the Chicago shoreline on June 26, 1954.  It produced an 8 foot high wall of water that killed several people.  Read about it here.  http://ezinearticles.com/?The-Day-a-Tidal-Wave-Hit-Chicago&id=172583

Posted under Earthquake, Natural Disasters, Science, Tsunami, Weather NEws, Weather Safety, World Weather

I saw this article yesterday so I thought I would touch on it today.  There are many conspiracy theories out there about everything from government events, to natural disasters, to health related topics. 

Most people chalk up the earthquake to happening on a convergent boundary.  The Japan one happened where the Pacific plate is colliding with the North American plate at 8 cm per year this according to Rich Briggs, who explained the correlation between tides and the moon just above.

With the earthquake fresh on everyones mind I read this interesting article.  It does have some good points relatingearthquakes and supermoons.  On the other hand there is a good possibility that the statistics just happened to fall relatively close in realtions to earthqkuakes, and supermoons so that it fathers a relationship. 

Taken in Russia when last supermoon was in effect, Feb 18th

They usually happen three or four times a year with the next one happening on March 19th, this Saturday. 

The moon definitely plays a role in the tide the articles states this : “As Rich Briggs, research geologist with the U.S.G.S. stated, “The gravitational pull of the moon creates Earth tides and sea tides and causes portions of the Earth’s surface to bulge.” 

So here are the coincidental occurrences of supermoons and earthquakes tsunamis over the past few years:

~We just had a supermoon in effect Feb. 12-21.  This was followed by the earthquake that left Christchurch, New Zealand in ruins on Feb. 22, 2011.

~The apparent last extreme supermoon occurred on Jan. 30, 2010.  This was after catastrophic earthquake that hit Haiti on Jan. 12, 2010.

~ There was a super moon on January 10, 2005.  This was just after the devastating earthquake and tsunami that hit Indonesia on Dec. 26, 2004.

Whether it is just the natural shift of plates, or a phenoemon such as supermoon, there is no doubt that Japan will be recovering for years and needs as much help as they can get. 

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Climate Change, Earthquake, Geology, Natural Disasters, Nature, Science, Space, Spring, Tsunami, Weather History, Weather NEws

What a day it has been for the world again.  The 8.9 magnitude earthquake that hit Japan is being recorded as the 5th strongest earthquake since the 1900′s.  So far more than a thousandare reported dead and the death total will likely increase severely from the missing people that have not been accounted for.  Just in a year and a half we have had devastation on all parts of the world including there, Haiti and Chile.

This quake sent out a massive Tsunami which did hit the coast of California and the west coast in addition to the Hawaiian Islands.  The total wave heights seem to be from 2 feet to 8 feet. 

This is a great website detailing the tsunami and the impact it had on the West coast.

Here is a detailed graph and articleon how fast it traveled and includes heights of certain locations.  The original wave was estimated at 23 feet.

If there is any video you should watch to get an understanding on how a tsunami travels check out this video from NOAA. Just astonishing.

And this pic is the neatest that I have seen showing where the quake hit and how the wave traveled including how high the waves were. Very distinct and useful.

I will write more tomorrow!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Earthquake, Environment, Geology, International Weather, Tsunami, Weather NEws, World Weather