Photo from the Associated Press

A boat that was part of the five million tons of “stuff” thrown into the Pacific Ocean during the massive Japanese earthquake and tsunami has been spotted off the Canadian Coast. 

The Associated Press is reporting that the 65-meter long boat is moving toward land, 160 miles off the coastline of British Columbia. 

To put that in perspective, if you were driving down Interstate 39, that’s about 20 miles farther than the distance between Wausau and Madison!

The horrific earthquake and tsunami struck Japan just over one year ago on March 11, 2011.  More than 15,000 people died and it brought about one of the biggest nuclear power plant scares in years.    

According to The Toronto Star, there is no environmental concerns over the abandoned ship, but mariners in the Pacific Ocean need to take warning because “the vessel poses a potential navigational hazard.”

Photo from National Geographic

Posted under Earthquake, Environment, Flooding, Geology, Natural Disasters, Nature, Oceans, Tsunami, Uncategorized, Weather History, Weather NEws

Before I get into my main topic, I wanted to mention that “solar winter” is now over.   This is the darkest quarter of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, which runs from November 5th through February 5th.  Essentially it covers the period from 1.5 months on either side of the Winter Solstice, which is in late December.

Speaking of winter, we sure have had a lot of dry days around here.  I looked back to find all the days since November 1st in which we’ve had either .01″ of rain or more, or at least 0.10″ of snow or more in the Wausau area.  Below are the results.

November:  2

December:  10

January:  12

February:  0

So in summary, since November 1st, we’ve only had measurable precipitation on about 24% of the days.   Normally it’s about 35% of the time around here.  It will certainly be interesting to see if this trend changes as we head into the end of winter.   Everybody that talks to me keeps saying, “we’re going to pay for this, or we’re going to get buried in March.”  You just never know.   It might just wait until next winter to pile up on us.

Posted under Uncategorized

Perhaps you remember back to this time in 2011 when Milwaukee, Chicago and a long strip from Oklahoma to Lower Michigan were paralyzed by a  massive blizzard.  From late on January 31st to early on February 2nd, roughly 18 to 24 inches of snow buried the southeast tip of Wisconsin into northeast Illinois.  Winds gusting to 5o or 60 mph whipped the snow into huge drifts over 8 feet deep in spots.  Many cars were stranded even in downtown Chicago.  Chicago had it’s highest 24-hour snowfall in this storm, with 20″.  Their storm total was over 21 at O’Hare.  Massive waves were generated on Lake Michigan as well.

This storm largely missed central and northern Wisconsin with just an inch or so about as far north as Stevens Point.  There is an excellent writeup with many stunning pictures and graphs from the Chicago National Weather Service Office.  You can check it out here,   http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=2011blizzard

A little bit later that week, Dallas-Fort Worth, TX was hit with ice, a bit of snow, and unseasonably cold conditions.  You may recall it made a snarled mess of air and land travel into that area prior to the Super Bowl.  I’m sure when they booked the Super Bowl there years in advance, they weren’t expecting something like that.

We don’t expect any major problems in Indianapolis this year leading up to the Super Bowl.  However there could be some light rain there Tuesday afternoon or evening.  Temperatures will be unseasonably warm actually, in the 50s and 40s much of the week.  It’s possible some more rain may sneak into that region for the weekend, but it is still uncertain.

Posted under Uncategorized

As you probably know, the winter so far has been quite a bit warmer than normal.  It stands to reason then that there would be less ice cover on the Great Lakes than usual for this time of the year.  According to the map below from NOAA, it appears that about 90% of the surface of the Great Lakes are still ice free.  Some of the shallower portions and edges of the lakes are froze over.  For example the Bay of Green Bay is pretty much covered along with areas near the coast around Ashland and Bayfield.  A small area northwest of Isle Royale in Lake Superior is ice covered.  So are a few pockets in southwest Lake Michigan and near the Mackinac Bridge.  The portion of Lake Huron that is most covered with ice is the little finger that juts out north of Saginaw.    Lake Erie has some ice cover on its western flank.

There are a few interesting implications from the lack of ice cover on the Great Lakes.  One is that if  some cold arctic air  actually comes across the open waters there should be high amounts of lake effect snow.  The long fetches of relatively warm, moist air over the lake rising up into cold arctic air masses are the perfect set up to produce lake effect clouds and snow.   It’s probable large parts of the lakes may stay open right into spring, so I see no reason why the lake effect snow would shut off in February, like some years.  Secondly, winds off the lakes will tend to keep temperatures a bit milder in the Great Lakes States than they would be if they were completely iced over.  

Posted under Uncategorized

As you know, sometimes snow is wet and heavy and other times it is dry and fluffy.  The scientific term we use to describe this changeable nature of snow is the snow to water ratio.  Essentially this boils down to how many inches of snow will fall for every 1 inch of water.  An average ratio around Wisconsin in the winter is about 10 to 1. 

Well with the snow coming through Friday the snow to water ratio is expected to be about 20 to 1 or even 25 to 1.  That is because the air from the cloud level to the ground will be exceptionally cold for a snow event.  The ice crystals will form and gather in such a way that a lot of extra air will be stacked inside the snowflakes.  This makes them pile up in height quicker once they reach the ground.  It also will make it a very fluffy, powdery light snow.  So under this scenario, if we get about an inch of snow in Wausau Friday, it would only have about .05″ of water in it!  Even the areas of southern Wisconsin that are expecting around 5″ of snow Friday, would only be picking up about .25″ of actual moisture.  This is great news in terms of shoveling.  It will be very easy to move and not put nearly the strain on your back.  It is also a wonderful type of snow for skiing and sledding on.  It won’t even make your pants too wet if you roll around it for awhile.

On those occasions when the air is quite humid and warm, perhaps in the lower to mid 30s and the storm is tapping deep moisture levels, our snow ratios can be as low as 7 to 1.  That is if seven inches of snow falls it would have a whopping 1″ of water in it.  This is the sloppy, heavy mash potato type of snow that is very difficult to shovel.  On the plus side it packs really well and make great snowmen and snowball fights!  It is also the type of snow that works good as a base for snowmobile trails.  This is because it doesn’t squish down to nothing when sleds r0ll over it, unlike the dry powdery snow.

Well, hope you enjoy all the types of snow the rest of the winter.  See if you can notice all the nuisances in flakes, textures, and weights.

Posted under Uncategorized

One of the more interesting research results I have read recently is an attempt to link La Nina with major flu pandemics in human history. I am unsure why, but I instantly developed a heap of skepticism about this theory/study. I don’t have access to the full paper so I can’t evaluate the results as in depth as I would like, but I will opine anyway.

On a superficial level, this theory might seem to make common sense, in that colder weather is associated with a higher incidence of flu and colds. La Nina is a cooler than normal surface water pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean so perhaps it is also linked with colds and flu. Well, it is certainly not that simple when it comes to the spread of viruses.

The authors of the study speculate that La Nina changes the flight patterns of birds migrating around the globe. Birds carry viruses. During a La Nina, their altered migratory pattern puts them in areas where they can pick up different flu viruses. These viruses then mix and mutate within the birds creating a “bad flu” which eventually causes a pandemic in the human population of the world. The research claim that four widespread pandemics in the last 100 years happened around the same time that La Nina was occurring in the Pacific Ocean.

The Current La Nina, as of January 8th

I think it is just a chance association – a case of fitting data to a pattern without clearly delineating a cause. Here is why:

There are many weather patterns that affect the movement of birds and other migratory animals. The El Nino/La Nina cycle is an important one, but there are many other ocean and atmospheric patterns that could fit the bill. Even long droughts or significant floods can force animals to move hundreds or thousands of miles out of their normal range. Also, different strains of flu spread across the globe every year, not only during times of La Nina. Why would one ocean pattern (La Nina) cause more widespread pandemics than others that similarly cause disruption in animal/bird movement?

On a slightly different note, I have always wondered about the spread of flu and how we tackle the problem. In the absence of a sure-fire 100% technological/medical cure or antidote for the flu, I think it is a somewhat positive thing that viruses spread around the world. I like to think of us as having two immune systems, an individual one and a social one. The social immune system is all of ours, linked through the transmission of viruses.

In the distant past, humans did not travel the globe. When people did start moving large distances they brought “unknown” diseases to new lands. These diseases wiped out indigenous people who did not have any immune resistance built up to the new pathogens. It is estimated that over 90% of Native Americans in the U.S. died because of disease, not because European immingrants directly killed them. In today’s world, millions of people travel from one end of the globe to another every single day. There isn’t much chance for a particular virus to develop/mutate for decades or hundreds of years in a small isolated population in a distant corner of the earth, only to wreak havoc on the rest of the population once it is let out. Most viruses mutate and spread rather rapidly. They don’t have a great chance of picking up several deadly mutations over a long period of time. It would seem that minor mutations occur every year and once the “new” non-lethal viruses spread around the world (the annual flu season) we all gradually pick up immunity – through our social immune system. That is why I don’t mind getting the occasional flu or cold. Like the old saying goes, if it doesn’t kill you, it will only make you stronger. I am afraid that if viruses did not spread around, then we would be more susceptible to deadly versions in the future.

Of course, I am middle-aged, so I do not have as much to fear from the flu as the elderly. If I was older, I might be more germ-phobic. In the end, I definitely support the development of powerful technological/biomedical tools to eradicate all human diseases, pathological or otherwise. Until that point, the constant transmission of non-lethal viruses might be preventing the next big lethal pandemic. (just my little thought/theory about the flu I wanted to share, thanks for your attention, feel free to disagree)

Staying on the subject of La Nina, it is well known that it usually brings about lower than normal precipitation in the southern U.S., which is why folks in Texas were not looking forward to this Winter season. Luckily, many parts of Texas have received significant rain over the last couple of months so the drought is not as bad as earlier this year, but with La Nina expected to persist for another month or two, the situation could deteriorate. Check out the latest U.S. Drought Monitor here.

Lucky for us here in Wisconsin, below normal precipitation does not affect our livelihood too much. Snowmobiling has been non-existent for 95% of the state. Cross country skiing has been a little rough as well. But for food and water purposes, winter precipitation is not as critical as Spring and Summer precipitation. So even though 40% of the state is currently “abnormally dry” and it would be nice to pick up a couple feet of snow before Spring, rainfall will be the key once we get into April and May. That is when we will need it the most.

_______________________________________

And just for the heck of it, here is a little article I read recently about the “Check Engine” light all cars are equipped with. It isn’t weather or science related but it reproduces my opinion on the subject matter quite well. My “Check Engine” light story is this: The only new vehicle I have ever bought in my life came with a 60,000 mile full warranty. At about 60,213 miles the check engine light came on. I thought the timing was rather suspicious. When I took the car into the shop, there was a several hundred dollar list of repairs suggested - most were fixes or replacements of parts I have never heard of – and I know a bit about cars. Suffice it to say, the car was running fine so I didn’t get anything fixed. I have been driving it 5 years hence, all the while with the check engine light on, and it still runs just fine (I don’t recommend this practice, just relating a story here). Do any readers out there have any check engine light stories?

Have a fine Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update, Oceans, Uncategorized

We’ve had our share of warmer than normal days around here in October into the first half of November.  However it pales in comparison to the warmth they have been experiencing over in western Europe including England.  The average temperature so far in November has been nearly 7 degrees F above normal.  Several days have featured highs in the mid 60s F.  If it stays on this pace it could go down as their warmest November on record. 

The unusual persistent warmth has fooled plants and animals into thinking it’s spring already.  Crickets, grasshoppers, and frogs have been out and about making their sounds and doing their thing.  Bess have been busy collecting nectar.  Some flowers have bloomed again for a second or third time this season.

It’s been so warm because of an usually persistent southerly wind flow in the United Kingdom area.  In large part this is due to the fact that the North Atlantic Oscillation has been in the positive phase for several weeks.  This is an ocean-atmospheric pattern that varies every few weeks to few months.  When there is strong low pressure in the North Atlantic Ocean and Greenland, strong jet stream winds roar across the Atlantic from the southwest keeping western Europe milder than normal.  When the NAO is in the negative phase like it was much of last winter, there is often higher air pressure around Greenland which ends up pushing the polar jet stream farther south allowing cold air to infiltrate the U.K. and western Europe.  Actually the negative phase of the NAO contributed to our cold late winter and spring around the Midwest along with La Nina.  It is not very predictable yet when the NAO will reverse its phase.

Posted under Uncategorized

With news of another satellite falling back to Earth in the near future I came across this interesting story from NASA. 

The agency has selected twenty of its followers on Twitter to get an exclusive look at the soon-to-be launched National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite.

The satellite will help us with weather observations, but one of its duties will to be giving us a closer look at climate issues. 

To learn more check out this website from NASA!

Posted under Climate Change, Environment, International Weather, Nature, new media, Science, Space, Uncategorized, Weather NEws, World Weather

Be on high alert for wildfire potential this weekend!  Watch those cigarettes and campfires—a complete update on the Pagami Wildfire in Minnesota and precautions you should be taking if you’re headed to the northwest this weekend is included in this link from the National Weather Service here. 

Read more in a previous Storm Track 9 Blog post here.

Posted under Uncategorized

Satellite image showing the silt churned up by strong wind and wave action from the NWS.

The brisk wind from last week caused quite a bit of damage across Wisconsin.  Electricity was out for large swaths of the Northwoods when wind gusts topped 45 miles an hour in portions of Central Wisconsin.  

Door County, the Wisconsin peninsula that juts out into Lake Michigan saw gusts over 60 miles and hour.  The area sustained considerable damage, with all county and state parks still closed along with the recreational trails that track across the area. 

On land we could surely see the effects of the strong wind.  But now we’re seeing what all of that wind did to the water from space. 

 The strong northerly winds whipped up waves in Lake Michigan to over 25 feet near in the southern rim.  That churned up silt that is now moving through the currents in the water.  We can see that with satellite images taken from space.

For more information check out this interesting article from the NWS Chicago, or this article from the NWS Milwaukee.

Posted under Environment, Nature, Seasonal Items, Storms, Uncategorized, Weather NEws