After 22 months of testing, NOAA started using a sophisticated new short term weather forecast model.  The Rapid Refresh Model (RAP) for short, will improve predictions of quickly developing severe weather situations such as thunderstorms, winter storms, and aviation hazards like turbulence.  It replaces an older model called Rapid Update Cycle (RUC).

RAP was developed by NOAA’s Earth System Research Lab in Boulder, CO and the National Centers for Environmental Predicton in Camp Springs, MD.  It updates every hour producing a fresh forecasting extending 18 hours over most of North America.  The U.S. is the only country in the world to routinely update a weather forecast model every 1 hour with the latest observations from ground and satellite based sensors, along with radar, ships, and aircraft.

Forecast skill has improved using the RAP model for most variables including wind and precipitation.  For example the RAP did a better job of showing where a large area of extreme rainfall would occur last June over the middle of the country.  Aviation interests in Alaska are seeing improvement to flying safety using this model.  This is especially important to that state because there are numerous sections of Alaska only accessible by airplane.

You can learn more about the RAP model and other forecasting issues from the following link.  http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120501_rapmodel.html

Posted under forecast, Science, Severe Weather, Technology, Weather NEws

Photo from the National Weather Service

Five tornadoes tore through parts of southeast Colorado yesterday, leaving several injured and causing considerable damage to farming communities. 

According to the National Weather Service two tornadoes hit Prowers County, two tore through Kiowa County,  and one went through parts of Bent County in the early morning hours of April 27th.

According to the Denver office of the National Weather Service, overnight twisters in Colorado are rare.  The last time an overnight tornado hit the state was April 30th, 1942.  Ironically it hit the same two counties of Bent and Kiowa, the same areas hit this year.

For a look at the damage from the National Weather Service Survey team, follow this link: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pub&storyid=82413&source=0.

Posted under Environment, Natural Disasters, Nature, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Spring, Tornadoes, Weather History, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

This is Tornado and Severe Weather Awareness Week in Wisconsin.  Luckily we haven’t had much in the way of severe thunderstorms yet, but that will likely change over the next month or so.  It’s always a good thing to review severe weather terms, safety tips, and refresh your severe weather preparedness plans.  Do you and your family members know what to do in a variety of situations whether you are at home, school, work, shopping, driving, or outside?  Please take time to look over this important information.  It could reduce your risk of injury or death from severe weather.

On Thursday, April 19, a tornado drill will be conducted.  At 1 pm, a test Tornado Watch will be issued for all of Wisconsin.  The test watch will be broadcast on NOAA Weather Radio as a Required Weekly Test–RWT.  At 1:45 pm, the NWS Green Bay office will issue a test Tornado Warning.  The test warning will be broadcast as a test on NOAA Weather Radio using the actual Tornado Warning code.  The drill will conclude at 2 pm.

Here’s the schedule for the tornado drill:

1:00 p.m.  -  A test Tornado Watch is issued for all of Wisconsin by the Storm Prediction Center

1:45 p.m.  -  NWS offices in Wisconsin issue test Tornado Warnings using actual Tornado Warning code (broadcast will state this is a test)

2 p.m.  – Drill ends with the issuances of test Severe Weather Statements

Should severe weather be present anywhere in Wisconsin on the day of the drill, the test watch and warnings will be postponed until Friday.  If severe weather is forecast for Friday, the drill will be canceled.  

Wisconsin Severe Weather Facts

Wisconsin averages 23 tornadoes per year, with most tornadoes occurring in the 3 to 9 P.M. time frame.  The peak tornado season in Wisconsin is May through August, with June having the greatest number of tornadoes.  A record-setting 62 tornadoes occurred in 2005.  In 2011, Wisconsin had 38 tornadoes, 15 in northeast Wisconsin alone!

The “average” Wisconsin tornado has a 10 minute duration, a path length of about 6 miles, and a damage width of about 125 yards.

Another hazard of the warm-season is powerful, straight-line thunderstorm winds that can exceed 60 mph.  Every year Wisconsin will get a few storms that generate hurricane-force winds of at least 75 to 100 mph.  Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are issued for these wind events.

Large hail is also a hazard with thunderstorms.  Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are also issued for storms with hail of at least 1″ in diameter.

Other warm-season hazards localized flash floods or widespread river and lowland flooding, lightning, and excessive heat.

To learn much more about all types of severe weather that impacts our region please go to these great link from the National Weather Service. 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/?n=taw-part4-tornado_stats

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grb/?n=safety

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grb/outreach/TAW/TAW5.pdf

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grb/outreach/TAW/TAW2.pdf

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grb/outreach/TAW/TAW3.pdf

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grb/outreach/TAW/TAW1.pdf

Posted under Severe Weather, Storms, Tornadoes, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

For the first time in four years, the Northern Plains will not experience major to record spring snowmelt flooding.  Of course the reason being is that there was very little snowpack in that part of the country throughout the winter.  Most of the major winter storms either missed that area, or it was warm enough that the snow melted off and on over the winter months.  The record warmth in March took care of the rest of any remaining snow pack in the Upper Midwest as well.  This is certainly great news for residents in Fargo and Grand Forks along the Red River as well as folks along the Mississippi River.

There is also a lower than normal risk of spring flooding in the southwest quadrant of the county as well as an area from Florida to parts of Virginia.  Only a few spots in Louisiana, Mississippi, Kentucky, and southern Indiana, and southeast Illinois have an above normal chance of spring floods according to NOAA.

The bad side of lower than normal spring flood risk in the Northern Plains and Midwest is the fact that this usually means the ground will dry out sooner than normal.  Thus there is a somewhat increased chance of growing season drought, unless frequent rains start to show up.

You can read NOAA’s full spring hydrologic assessment at this link.  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/hic/nho/

Posted under Flooding, forecast, Natural Disasters, Seasonal Items, Storms, Weather NEws

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) released its Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) on 28 March.  You can read the the full press release from the following link.  http://ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_launch_media_advisory.pdf

The report was authored by 220 scientists from 62 counties around the world.  It was based off of hundreds of studies from across the globe that have been peer-reviewed at least 2 to 3 times.  Some of the major points in the press release regarding climate change over the coming decades include.

• Heat waves will likely increase in frequency, duration, and intensity.
• Sea levels will very likely continue rising, causing increased coastal flooding.
• Heavy precipitation events will likely to increase in frequency especially in higher latitudes and tropical regions during the summer and in northern mid latitudes during the winter.
• It is somewhat probable that droughts will increase in duration and intensity especially in central and southern Europe, the Mediterranean Area, North America, Central America, Mexico, northeast Brazil, and Southern Africa.
• It is extremely likely that the frequency of daily record high temperatures will increase and daily record low temperatures will decrease across the globe.
• It is likely that economic losses from climate-related disasters will increase.  (Part of this is due to greater population with time living in risky areas).

You can read the full 600 page IPCC report here.  Good luck!  http://ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_launch_media_advisory.pdf

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Education, Heat, International Weather, Natural Disasters, Science, Weather NEws, World Weather

Follow-up: last week I mentioned the HumanBirdWings viral video in the blog and said I was rather skeptical about it. My skepticism was justified as the Dutch film-maker gave up the prank late last week, saying it was an exercise in storytelling. It was also a very good fake video. Read a little more about the fake here.

_______________________________________

Given the warm weather a lot of people have been asking me about the snowmelt contest. It will be starting a few days earlier this year but not until the middle of April. The entry period will be for a couple weeks in April, and then we will wait and watch to see when the snow finally melts. The entry period usually goes through the last day of April but this year, if more very warm weather hits in April, the snow could melt during the last couple days of the month. More than likely it will last into May or June. I will let you know all the details here in the blog when the time comes.

The warm weather also has people thinking about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) a bit more as well, but not as much as you might think. Recent surveys have found that concern about AGW has waned as the economy has worsened. This should not be surprising. Most people are most concerned about their near-term situation. In the current recession, millions of people have lost jobs, food insecurity has increased, some have lost pensions or health-care coverage. These things affect how people will think/behave today or tomorrow. With respect to AGW, it is predicted to be environmental Armageddon, which would be very bad if it happens, but it is a slow-motion threat. It would evolve over the course of decades. The cost of damage to the ocean’s alone could be about $2 trillion according to one estimate, but $2 trillion spread out over decades, again, is not as dramatic. If people are hungry today, they will not focus too much on the prospect of the temperature rising by a few degrees 90 years from now. Now only if people would stop having as many kids (because of economic concerns), they might be able to solve near term problems and long term problems (AGW) at the same time. Whatever moves we make, more bureaucracy, as is suggested here, is probably the worst possible solution. 

This type of simple economic calculation also applies to alternative energy. A recent opinion article really does a good job stating the obvious, that alternative energy technology will not be widely adopted until we run out of fossil fuels. I am not that pessimistic but I know what the reality is. As long as fossil fuels are cheaper than the alternatives they will remain king. Even I declined to buy an electric car when I purchased a vehicle last year. The sticker price of electric car offerings were just too high. So it is left to upper income types to push fledgling technology forward. Most of the rest of us might not be choosing to go electric (or solar/wind for our house) but we are choosing more efficient vehicles. A recent study shows that the average mpg of the U.S. “fleet” is now at an all time high of 23. Good job U.S.! As long as the price of gas remains high, this number should continue to climb in coming years. Both of my cars get over 30 mpg and I hope I can afford one that achieves 40 mpg for the next purchase (if a cheap EV is not available).

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Oceans, Pollution, Weather NEws

Photo from the Associated Press

A boat that was part of the five million tons of “stuff” thrown into the Pacific Ocean during the massive Japanese earthquake and tsunami has been spotted off the Canadian Coast. 

The Associated Press is reporting that the 65-meter long boat is moving toward land, 160 miles off the coastline of British Columbia. 

To put that in perspective, if you were driving down Interstate 39, that’s about 20 miles farther than the distance between Wausau and Madison!

The horrific earthquake and tsunami struck Japan just over one year ago on March 11, 2011.  More than 15,000 people died and it brought about one of the biggest nuclear power plant scares in years.    

According to The Toronto Star, there is no environmental concerns over the abandoned ship, but mariners in the Pacific Ocean need to take warning because “the vessel poses a potential navigational hazard.”

Photo from National Geographic

Posted under Earthquake, Environment, Flooding, Geology, Natural Disasters, Nature, Oceans, Tsunami, Uncategorized, Weather History, Weather NEws

Source: United States Geological Survey

With the source of the mysterious booming sounds and shakes from Clintonville being cited as a series of mini-quakes taking place you might be thinking about where you can learn more about earthquakes from a reliable source. 

The United States Geological Survey is the premiere organization for you to turn toward for information. 

This web link: http://www.earthquake.usgs.org provides a wealth of interesting information.  Perhaps most fascinating is that the page provides two maps that depict the locations of every detected earthquake in both the United States and around the world.  For specific data on individual earthquakes you can click on the map and zoom in toward each quakes’ epicenter. 

The largest of the series of mini-quakes in Clintonville measured 1.5 on the Richter scale.  Though that is very small compared to other earthquakes around the world, it’s the rock types found deep beneath the surface soils that play a large role here. 

Source: University of Wisconsin--Green Bay

Granite is a commonly found rock beneath Clintonville, and much of East Central Wisconsin.  It’s also one of the strongest rock types on the planet.  I asked a geologist at the Universityof Wisconsin—Marathon County yesterday about granite and he said on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the strongest, granite is a solid 10.

That’s an important part in the story.  Strong rock types like granite have little give.  Any shaking below the earth doesn’t have much lee-way when the vibrations move through it.  Softer rock types though have more of an ebb and flow approach. 

So-called earthquake-ready buildings do not try to fight the force of earthquakes, but rather are designed to in a way ride it out.  Rigid structures (strong rocks too) don’t handle this well and shake (or collapse in the case of buildings.)  Relatively flexible structures (and rock types) cope with earthquakes because they allow for more give.        

For a complete report of the 1.5 magnitude quake from the USGS, click here: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Quakes/usc0008n7t.php

Posted under Earthquake, Education, Geology, Weather History, Weather NEws

WATCH THE VIDEO HERE! 

It’s been a fairly unbelievable stretch of weather the past few days.  In the past nine days, Wausau has recorded 10 new record high temperatures.  Six have come as new record daytime highs (March 10^th, 11^th, 14^th, 15^th, 16^th, 17^th, 18^th) and three have come as record high overnight low readings (March 12^th, 15^th, 17^th). 

One of the contributing causes for the warm weather we’ve seen is the position of the jet stream.  At the time of this writing there is an enormous trough or downward plunge over the western United States.  And at the very same time there is an enormous ridge or upward shooting branch of the stream over the eastern United States.  The pattern has been stubborn and very slow to change. 

With cold air shooting southward and warm air blasting northward, the western United States has seen cold temperatures, rain and snow while the east has been setting record high temperature readings for days on end.  In fact on Sunday the higher elevations of northern Arizona picked up a foot of snow while Wausau recorded a fifth consecutive record high temperature. 

When the jet stream takes on such a unique shape some very interesting temperature readings can be recorded.   For fun I thought it would be interesting to compare where the numbers were across the country.  And Wausaustacks up near the top! 

Sunday saw temperatures reach 57 degrees inSan Diego, California. Los Angeles, California hit 58 degrees. Phoenix, Arizona only warmed to 64 degrees Sunday afternoon.  Now here’s where it gets fun: El Paso,Texas saw a daytime high of 78 degrees, the same reading recorded here in Wauasu, good for a new record high.

It’s not too often we out-warm Phoenix.  But when we do, it sure is fun to have bragging rights, and as evidenced by the jet stream pattern, meteorologically interesting to investigate as well!

Posted under Environment, new media, Records, Seasonal Items, Spring, Weather History, Weather NEws

Sam Champion of Good Morning America mentioned that there have been 1,000 new daily record high temps in the U.S. so far this month of March. Here in Northcental Wisconsin we have added a few to that total. If you remember, over the weekend there were record highs on Saturday and Sunday. We will likely break some more record over the next few days. We might end up with 7 or 8 records during this early March period and above normal temps will likely stick with us next week as well. Here are the record highs for Wausau over the next few days:

• Today, March 14th: 67 (1995)
• Thursday, March 15th: 65 (1995)
• Friday, March 16th: 68 (1927)
• Saturday, March 17th: 68 (1966)
• Sunday, March 18th: 62 (2010)

Right now, the only record I am not forecasting to be broken is on Friday. I am forecasting a tie right now with a high of 68. Over the weekend and early next week high temps should continue to hover around 70. What will make it feel even more like Summer over the weekend is increasing humidity. There will also be a slight chance of showers or and isolated thunderstorm from Saturday through Monday.

Posted under Records, Spring, Weather NEws