I asked a couple of days ago about June snow in Wisconsin and I am surprised no one had a story to share. Ray did bring up some old winter folklore which I have heard as well – that the “snow drifts were up to the top of the telephone poles” – and “every winter it got down to 40 below”. These stories do have a basis of truth but are also a bit exaggerated. Colder winter-time temps were a reality in the latter part of the 1800s and the first half of the 1900s, but we did not have 40 below every winter. In fact, the temperature has only officially reached -40 in Wausau on 3 different occasions, once in 1899, once in 1948, and once in 1951. Now, if you were living around the area in the late 1940s through the 1950s, it probably seemed like the temperature got that cold every winter, but it didn’t. We tend to remember the most extreme and emotional things from our past and forget the less exciting stuff. So there were more occasions with bitter cold in the past, but it did not occur every year.

As far as the blizzards go, there were some doozies in the past, but again, the snow was not up to the telephone poles every winter. At least with a couple of the past snowstorms we do have some photographic evidence of the events. At the historical society of Marathon county they have some pictures of drifts as high as railroad cars. As for the telephone poles, we should remember that the poles were a bit shorter back in the day.

Overall, I am sure most people are happy with the more mild Winters we have experienced in the last 2 or 3 decades. The last time we had -30 in Wausau was in February of 1996. Most winters lately have some stretches of cold weather but in the city it seems we only get down to around -20 or so. Some of that has to do with the urban heat island effect, but some is due to the climate getting a bit warmer as well.

We might not have any stories about snow in June but we have a new story about snow in April. Just last night 1 to 3 inches of the white stuff fell in parts of the area. I measured just over an inch on my car this morning. The snowfall made it look like Granite Peak might be open for business again soon. The slopes were all white this morning – perhaps making people re-think their predictions for the 2012 Snowmelt Contest (with prizes provided by the R-stores of NorthCentral Wisconsin). Not to worry. After the inch or so of snow melts off the slopes today, the patches that remain are quite small. You still have until next Friday (the 27th) to get your entry in. Whenever you feel like entering, the easiest way is to use the entry form here: http://www.waow.com/category/236274/2012-snow-melt-contest Don’t post your prediction here in the blog. I see a couple predictions have come in to the comment section so far and I will enter them into the contest manually (no worries) but it is much better if you use our website form for the contest.

I usually do not make my prediction until the entry period has closed in order to not influence things too much, but I will make a guarantee. The snow will not last until June 24th – the latest snowmelt date we have ever had with the contest. That might not help a whole lot but it is the most you will get out of me for now.

CPC Temp Trend For May

What would help the snow stick around a while longer would be some colder weather – which I know a lot of you are NOT hoping for. The weather will stay colder than normal this weekend but should rise a little above normal (highs in the 60s) for the middle of next week. What about May? Well, the CPC has released the latest monthly outlooks and Wisconsin finds itself in the “equal chances” (or EQ) category, meaning an equal chance of having above or below normal precipitation or temperatures. No major trend is being picked up by the computer models. If you click through the other months in the outlook you will find that it stays that way for temps and precip through the Summer, then a greater chance of above normal temperatures develops for the Fall and into the Winter. So for those of you who might be worried that it is going to be a long, hot, humid, Summer because the temps started out so warm in March, at least the computer models are not picking up on anything like that so far. It doesn’t mean it won’t happen, just that we don’t have any good indications whether temps will skew warmer or cooler this Summer.

Have a nice Friday, Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Snow Totals, Snowmelt 2012, Weather History, Winter Weather

A blog reader asked a question the other day about late snowfalls in Wisconsin – wondering if snow had ever fallen in June. Officially, in Wausau, the answer is no. The latest official snowfall in Wausau occurred on May 30th. It was a trace of snow and it fell in 1989 and way back in 1897. The heaviest well-documented snowfall in Wisconsin was on Memorial Day weekend of 1947 in the southern half of our viewing area. Up to 8.4 inches fell on that weekend in Pine River (Waushara county). You can read a lot more about that snowstorm here in this past blog post.

As far as June goes, I have heard stories about accumulating snow in early June but I have not been able to find any supporting documentation. Does anyone out there have a story about snow in June. Any pictures would be great. Maybe some old newspaper clippings? My grandparents claimed there was a year about a century ago when there was a least a trace of snow every month of the year – here in Wisconsin! I haven’t found any historical records of that , but looking at some of the cold temperature records from the late 1800s and early 1900s, one could not rule it out.

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Also, I wanted to share with you a picture of a great group of folks. These are the StormTrack9 Weather Watchers (most of them, plus some of their significant others). We got together for a party/recognition event this past weekend. These are the people who take the time out of their day to report daily high and low temperatures and precipitation from around the area. They also help out in times of severe weather, letting us know what is going on and what damage has been done in different locations. I salute their efforts and hope that they will continue weather watching many years into the future. For those that were unable to attend, I hope we are able to catch you the next time around.

On a side note, we could use a new weather watcher in the Northwoods. If there is anyone out there reading the blog today that is from Oneida, Vilas, or Forest county, who likes to keep a daily log of the weather, who will probably be at their current locations for at least a couple years into the future, please let me know. You can leave a comment here in the blog or you can email the weather department at weather@waow.com

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Community, Records, Weather History, Winter Weather

“White Gold” fell in the northwoods this week. It was the biggest snow (other than lake effect snow) I can remember in the last 15 years for not only the northwoods but for the entire viewing area. In fact, it was in March of 1997 (15 years ago) that we had over 20 inches of snow in parts of Juneau, Adams, and Waushara counties. Earlier this week there were a handful of reports of 20 to 24 inches of snow and now the snowmobilers can have some fun – at least in the northern half of the area – at least for this weekend. As it looks right now, this weekend could be the last true Winter-like weekend with good snow conditions on the ground. The snowmobile trails will likely be able to remain open in the north for the following weekend as well (because it takes a long time to melt 20 inches of snow) but the overall weather trend is looking much more Spring-like for next week and toward the middle of the month.

Sure we could have a big snowstorm yet at some point later this month or even in April, but I think this will be the last weekend of real Winter where you can enjoy all of the Winter activities. For all the people who can’t wait for warmer weather, here is the latest 8 to 14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. There is a high chance that the eastern three-quarters of the country – including Wisconsin – will have above normal temperatures.

Be safe on the snowmobile trails – they will likely be crowded this weekend.

Have a great weekend!  Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Recreation & Sports, Snow Totals, Winter Weather

As I mentioned yesterday, it wasn’t looking likely that we would break the snowfall record for February 29th, and we didn’t. Of all records throughout the year, February 29th’s are probably the hardest to break. Not because the records are so extreme for that date, but because it only comes around once every 4 years. The record snowfall for February 29th in Wausau is 4.5 inches and was set back in the leap year of 1908. The big snowstorm brought 6.9 inches to Wausau, but 3.8 fell on Tuesday and only 3.1 inches fell on Wednesday. Even though we didn’t break the snowfall record, we did break a total precipitation record. After melting down the snow and adding in the rain amount, we had 0.60 inches on Wednesday. This broke the old record of 0.43 inches set back in 1948. In Rhinelander, the total snowfall between the 2 days of the storm was 20.2 inches. Both the 6.3 inches on the 28th and the 13.9 inches on the 29th were records.

The precipitation on the 28th and 29th of February also put us above average for the month of February. I am celebrating! Not only because today is the first day of Spring but because we are starting out the year with two months of above normal precipitation. I always love to see the growing season get off to a good start, and a good snowpack does add a little moisture to the ground and keeps the lake and stream levels up to par.

So precipitation for February was above normal, but what about the other statistics? Continuing the trend from early in the Winter, February was well above normal. It is uncanny how the temperatures have stayed consistently above normal for three months in a row now. December and January were both about 6 degrees above normal and February ended up the same way. If my preliminary calculations are correct, and the mean/average temperature for the entire Winter was 23.6, then it would put the Winter of 2011-12 in a tie for 3rd  (with 1982-83) in the ranking of mildest Winter’s in Wausau. What is very interesting is that the Winter was so mild but we did not break too many records. We only had 2 record high temps in January. That was it. The pattern was just consistently mild. February was about 6 degrees above normal even though we only had 2 days when the high temperature hit 40 degrees or higher. We had more 40 degree days in January than in February. So much for the forecast of an extremely cold and snowy winter (by a couple other forecast outfits, not StormTrack9). With La Nina in the Pacific ocean, I forecast a little below normal temps and a bit above normal snowfall, but even that did not pan out. For the official Winter (December-January-February) we ended up with 33.1 inches of snow which was 3.9 inches below normal. For the entire “cold season” we are almost 9 inches below normal. Our total precipitation for the official Winter was 3.94 inches which was 0.64 inches above normal.

Other than the record precipitation on the 29th and the well above normal temps, there wasn’t much else to write home about during the month of February. It was slightly odd that the warmest temperature of the month was on the 4th. Normally during February, we would expect the warmest temps at the end of the month. The most common number we recorded was 33. We hit that mark for a high temperature on 5 different ocassions. Here are the complete stats:

Average High Temp: 33.1  (normal: 28.1)

Average Low Temp: 17.3  (normal: 10)

Total Precipitation: 1.38 inches  (normal 0.92 inches)

Total Snowfall: 12.2 inches  (normal 9.6 inches)

Highest Temp: 44 on the 4th

Lowest Temp: 1 on the 11th

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Monthly Recap, Winter Weather

The biggest storm of the Winter season is not over yet but it is not too early to do a preliminary post-mortem on the storm and forecast. As expected the two big wild cards in the forecast were the line between rain and snow (where would it be?) and whether or not there would be thundersnow. As you recall in the blog posts over the last couple of days, I mentioned that thundersnow could really crank up some of the snow totals. Well, we did end up with some thunderstorms producing snow this morning from around Wausau and on up into the Northwoods, and this produced some hefty snow amounts.

Overall, I am happy that most of the forecast on timing and amounts ended up fairly close. Here in Wausau the mid morning total on snowfall was 6.1 inches. On Monday I forecast 8-12 for Wausau and yesterday I had dropped it down to 3 to 6 inches, so it ended up in between. In the southern half of the area there was a quick couple inches last night and then the rest of the morning it was all sleet and rain as expected. The biggest official miss was snow amounts in the northwoods. On Monday I was forecasting up to 15 inches, yesterday I had lowered into the 6 to 10 range, and it ended up in the 15 to 18 inch range, with a few unconfirmed reports of over 20 inches. I knew the thundersnow was a possibility, but was not confident enough in the analysis to forecast the enormous amounts of snow. Tony had mentioned a bit more for the north – 15 inches or more – last night so he gets a better grade.

Another inch or two of snow could pile up in a couple areas yet this afternoon so the graphic you see here will probably need some updating. The Warnings and Advisories for the area officially continue through 6pm today but the roads should improve this afternoon, especially around Wausau and further south, as temps rise into the middle 30s.

3.8 inches of the 6.1 inch total for Wausau fell before midnight last night, so the record snow of 4.5 inches on February 29th (today) might hold. So far today we only officially have 2.3 inches of snow.

A final note. We are still watching the potential for another storm to hit the state on Friday. Some charts indicate it could produce several inches of snow for the southern and eastern parts of the area (around Wausau and points to the south and east), while others indicate not much accumulation. More on this tomorrow.

Have a good leap day! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Snow Totals, Winter Weather

I would like to delve a little more into the science and weather news of the day but the impending Winter storm has taken up most of my time and I suspect it is on everyone’s mind anyway, so today’s blog will once again be about the potential snowfall, and rainfall, and sleet-fall (if that is a word).

So what has changed since yesterday’s analysis? I have dropped the snow totals slightly and shifted the heaviest potential snow a little north of the Wausau metro area. As you can see from the graphic, I am now forecasting 3 to 6 inches of heavy wet snow (mixed with rain and sleet at times) for Marathon county and the highway 29 corridor. The line for the heavier snow (and not as much rain or sleet, is likely to be just north of the Wausau metro area and on up into the Northwoods. For areas south of Marathon county, there is a good chance there will be more rain and sleet than snow. Right now I am looking at 1 to 3 inches of snow in the southern areas late tonight, followed by some heavier rain around daybreak.

Snow Potential

With the rain and milder temps developing in the morning, the roads might not be too bad south of Marathon county.

A couple key things to remember with this storm is that there could be some rather extreme differences in snow totals in the transition zone between rain/sleet and snow – that means Marathon county. As I was mentioning yesterday, in the transition zone there can be a 9 inch snow report just a few miles away from a 1 inch report. There could also be some thundersnow at times that can really enhance the snowfall. Thundersnow can produce snowfall rates of 4 or 5 inches per hour. This is also possible in the transition zone.

The second thing to remember is that the heaviest rain, sleet, and snow will occur quite early in the morning, through about 7 or 8 am for central Wisconsin. For the rest of the day on Wednesday, the weather will likely be mild (a few degrees above freezing) with only a little drizzle and patchy light snow. The only locations that could pick up an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow later in the morning through early afternoon are in the northwoods.

NAM snow forecast

For a comparison to our StormTrack9 snow potential graphic, I have also included one computer model projection of snowfall. This particular computer model (the NAM) calculates a maximum of 19.7 inches of snow in the northwestern corner of the state and generally 10 to 15 inches of snow for the northwoods. It also shows a sharp cut-off of where there will be a lot of snow and where there will be none. It does have a known bias of over-estimating precipitation, but it seems fairly close this time around.

There will be another storm system moving into the upper Midwest on Friday, but at this time it looks like the highest potential for accumulating snow will be confined to the far southeastern part of the area, in cities such as Shawano, Waupaca, and Wautoma.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under forecast, Severe Weather, Winter Weather

The big news continues to be the active jet stream pattern and storm potential for our area. I mentioned last week how we should not get too much Spring Fever yet, because Winter is not over and that there were several potential storms on the horizon. We got hit with a couple inches of snow on Monday of last week, then the second and third storm in this pattern missed. One headed into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois last Thursday night and produced several inches of snow. The next headed into far northern Wisconsin (near Lake Superior and the UP of Michigan) and produced 2 to 3 inches on Sunday.

The fourth storm in this active weather pattern is what I will focus on today. It will be cruising through the upper Midwest Tuesday evening and Wednesday. The National Weather Service has already issued a WINTER STORM WATCH for the entire Newsline 9 viewing area for this time period. It doesn’t look like this storm will be the most “energetic” or strongest storm we have had in the last couple of years, but it will have a high amount of moisture so the potential for heavy precipitation will still exist.

Snow Potential Tuesday Night & Wednesday

As of now, I am forecasting 8 to 12 inches of snow for areas around Clark, Marathon, and Shawano counties on up to around highway 8. Further north of highway 8, the snow should be a little less. South of Marathon county, it looks like 4 to 8 inches of snow. South of Wisconsin Rapids and Stevens Point, it might only be a trace up to 4 inches. The heaviest snow with this storm system will likely be in parts of central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Over toward the Twin Cities, Eau Claire, and Rice Lake, there might be 15 or more inches of snow.

So what are the question marks that remain? Given that the storm is less than 36 hours away, there is less chance that it will completely change course and miss our area like the last two. There is a chance that more rain and sleet could mix in with the snow and thus keep snow totals more in the 4 to 8 inch range and not much more. There will likely also be a sharp cut-off between areas with little accumulation, in the far south, and a lot of accumulation farther north. In the past with this type of late Winter/early Spring storm I have seen a trace of snow fall in Stevens Point with close to 10 inches in Wausau on the same day. There could be such a sharp cut-off this time around as well. As far as the 8 to 12 inches accumulation, it looks like the lighter amounts (around 8 inches) will be east in the area, such as around Antigo, Wittenberg, and Tigerton, and the heavier amounts (closer to 12 inches) will be farther west in areas such as Medford, Withee, and Thorp. The record snowfall in Wausau on Wednesday is only 4.5 inches so we could end up setting a new record.

The storm will wind down on Wednesday afternoon and we will have a break in the action for Thursday, then another storm could hit on Friday. If it tracks over Wisconsin, we could be dealing with another several inches of rain, sleet, and snow. Be sure to check the blog, our weather page, twitter, and our facebook pages (news and weather) to stay informed about the storminess this week.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under forecast, Winter Weather

Though the bulk of the heavy snow from this weekend’s storm system is tracking north of the major metro areas in Central Wisconsin, other communities are bracing for snow.  And a lot of it!

 Given current forecast projections, the arrowhead region of Minnesota will “take it on the chin” so to speak.  Areas there are expecting 5 to 8” by the end of the weekend with stretches along the western shores of Lake Superior preparing for around 10”.

If you are doing any traveling Sunday or Monday into northern Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin or portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan you could be greeted with some brutal driving conditions. 

Before you hit the road this weekend, check out this website: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dlh&storyid=59787&source=0.  It shows you a map of the major roadways in Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky.  The map also overlays current advisories, watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.  You’ll also notice that some roads are green, others yellow, and some red.  Linking information provided by each state’s department of transportation that will tell you where travel conditions are good, fair or hazardous. 

The page also includes a mobile link so you can take it on the road. 

Stay safe if you’re traveling this weekend!

Posted under Community, Environment, Seasonal Items, Storms, Travel, Weather Safety, Winter Weather

Through Monday, we’ve only accumulated about 2.5″ of snow for the month of February in the Wausau area.  That makes sense when you see all the brown, bare ground patches that have opened up.   The normal amount for the entire month is 9.2″.  Given that we have a fairly active pattern shaping up through early next week, we probably will reach normal. 

 In either case, mabye you are wondering what some of the snowiest and least snowiest Februarys have been.  Well, below you will see exactly that.

Snowiest Februarys on Record in Wausau

1.  1945      34.5″
2.  1962      29.1″
3. 1953       28.3″
4. 1909       27.0″
5. 2008      23.9″

Least Snowy Februarys on Record in Wausau

1.  1966      0.30″
2.  1912      0.60″
3. 1968       0.90″
4. 1987       1.00″
5. 1969       1.20″

Biggest Daily February Snowfalls on Record in Wausau

1.  Feb. 5th, 1908         13.0″
2.  Feb. 19th, 1898       12.0″
3.  Feb. 14th, 1950         9.4″

So as you can see, we have had quite a variety of snowfall numbers in the record books for February.  Again it does looks fairly snow off and on through early next week.  There might even be a big storm lurking around Sunday.  It will be interesting to see how the statistics will change.  Ah the beauty of numbers, it’s all how you look at them.  Stay tuned!

Posted under Records, Seasonal Items, Snow Totals, Winter Weather

Aside from a handful of short cold snaps and brief bouts of a few inches of snow at a time, this winter has proven to be fairly tame.  Especially when compared with last year’s winter that provided much of the United States with considerable snowfall. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has just released two images showing just how striking the difference has been in terms of snow depth.  In the image below, you’re looking at the continental United States.  Areas shaded in a taupe-peach color indicate areas that are dealing with nearly 40 less inches of snow compared to the winter of 2010-2011.  Areas in the blue color are places with nearly 40 more inches of snow. 

The top image illustrates the comparison in December, the lower in early February. 

What a difference!  We can see it has been a unique winter anecdotally, but when you look at the numbers and see how widespread the difference has been, it really is quite striking! 

To see the entire article from NOAA, follow this link: http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/image/2012/fierce-2010-2011-winter-dwarfs-this-seasons-snowfall

Image from NOAA.

Posted under Arctic climate, Environment, forecast, Nature, new media, Science, Seasonal Items, Snow Totals, Weather History, Weather NEws, Winter Weather