There are 2 main ways floating ice sheets melt, from warm air above and from warm ocean currents attacking the underside of the sheets.  Results of a recent study using NASA’s Ice, Cloud, & Land Elevation Satellite indicate the warm ocean current process has been the main culprit in recent years. 

A group of international scientists conducted the study from 2003 to 2008 using the special NASA satellite with lasar altimetry and specialized computer models to process melt and runoff data.   It showed 20 of 54 ice shelves in Antarctica showed substantial melting from below due to warm water currents eating into them.  Many of these are on the west side of Antarctica. 

This new satellite altimetry technology, combined with information from aircraft,  satellite radar, and other projects will give researchers the best view yet of how the ice and oceans of the world are changing.  Numerous climate models predict that sea level could rise anywhere from 6 to 18″ on average worldwide in the next 50 years.  Some project an even more extreme rise.

You can read the full article here.   http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/currents-ice-loss.html

Posted under AGW, Arctic climate, Climate Change, World Weather

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) released its Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) on 28 March.  You can read the the full press release from the following link.  http://ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_launch_media_advisory.pdf

The report was authored by 220 scientists from 62 counties around the world.  It was based off of hundreds of studies from across the globe that have been peer-reviewed at least 2 to 3 times.  Some of the major points in the press release regarding climate change over the coming decades include.

• Heat waves will likely increase in frequency, duration, and intensity.
• Sea levels will very likely continue rising, causing increased coastal flooding.
• Heavy precipitation events will likely to increase in frequency especially in higher latitudes and tropical regions during the summer and in northern mid latitudes during the winter.
• It is somewhat probable that droughts will increase in duration and intensity especially in central and southern Europe, the Mediterranean Area, North America, Central America, Mexico, northeast Brazil, and Southern Africa.
• It is extremely likely that the frequency of daily record high temperatures will increase and daily record low temperatures will decrease across the globe.
• It is likely that economic losses from climate-related disasters will increase.  (Part of this is due to greater population with time living in risky areas).

You can read the full 600 page IPCC report here.  Good luck!  http://ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_launch_media_advisory.pdf

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Education, Heat, International Weather, Natural Disasters, Science, Weather NEws, World Weather

The rumors have been flying for the past few years that December 2012 will be the end of the world.  A lot of the hysteria has been fueled by the so called Mayan calendar reaching the end of its cycle at that point.  Throw  in the wacky weather and climate of the past few years, unprecedented  March heat, earthquakes in Clintonville, WI, terrible world economies, and a movie dealing with Earth’s demise, “2012″, and you have all you need to stir up a frenzy.

Well some NASA folks have set out to debunk all the end of the world hysteria.  They have put together a nice article that basically says there is no science, no evidence, and no facts to support the claim that 2012 is the end.  They dive into the following items and explain why we should not be overly concerned about them for this year.

• Planetary alignment
• Magnetic pole shifts
• Planets or brown dwarfs approaching Earth
• Meteors, comets, and asteroids
• Giant solar storms
• Super novas
• Super volcanoes
• Mayan calendar

Well if you are worried that our days are numbered, please check out this NASA link.  It should give you a bit of reassurance if nothing else.   http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.html

Posted under astronomy, Natural Disasters, Science, World Weather

During the last week or so I have been updating the blog with news about the attempt to drill into Lake Vostok in Antarctica. It is a story I have followed for a few years because it could turn out to be a significant scientific discovery. The lake has been isolated from the environment for hundreds of thousands of years and more likely millions of years. Life that was once in the lake when it was not covered with 2 miles of ice, might have evolved into strange new forms. Or the lake might be sterile due to the presence of too much oxygen. In that case it would be interesting as well be cause it would be the only place on earth where there is a body of water but no life.

So what has brought this lake into focus again? A Russian drilling program has now reached the surface of the lake - or so they think. They are very close but cannot say for certain if they have reached liquid water that is part of the lake or just some liquid water in the sheet of ice. In any case you will have to hold your enthusiasm for a few months because they have shut down the drilling operation for the season. They have sent most of the engineers and scientists home until late next fall when Summer sunlight and warmer temps return. Only two people will remain to keep an eye on the bore hole. And that is the most interesting part of the story right now. Could you imagine spending a few months near the south pole, a thousand miles from the nearest human, thousands of miles away from any significant civilization, with hardly any daylight? The only thing stirring within hundreds of miles would be you and your comrade. I suppose there is a good communication link (satellite) nowadays that would allow for voice and maybe video communication. That would make it better, but it would still be a tough stint. Having seen The Thing, I would probably be a bit freaked-out for such a mission.

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State Temps During January 2012

From bitter cold Antarctica to a very mild contiguous United States. If you thought that this Winter was a bit milder than normal, you are not mistaken. The NCDC has released state-by-state statistics for the month of January (2012) and it turns out that almost every state had above normal temperatures. In Wisconsin it was the 10th warmest out of the last 118 years. The only states that experienced normal temps were Washington and Florida. Alaska was the only state with below normal temps. In fact, it was the record coldest January in many parts of Alaska. Not only have they experienced record cold but very heavy near record snow in some parts as well.

For anyone who follows the weather you are probably aware of the inverse correlation between weather in Alaska and the contiguous U.S. When it is warmer than normal in the lower 48, it is almost always colder in Alaska. When it is mild in Alaska, the bitter cold tends to move down into the lower 48. If you want to dig into past temperature data from around the U.S. take a look at this interactive web page at the NCDC.

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Alta Devices Solar Panel

Now another blast of good news from the solar power industry. Early this week I profiled Semprius, a company that has claimed the record for the highest efficiency using concentrated solar panels. Another company recently broke a record as well, but this time for regular (non light concentrating) solar panels. Alta Devices’ commercial solar panel has reached an efficiency of 23.5%. I detailed their devices in a past blog post as well. What is even more impressive is that their goal is to be cost competitive with fossil fuel generated electricity WITHOUT government subsidies. Hooray for Alta Devices!

In more speculative solar energy research, at the University of Cambrige scientists have come up with a design that might squeeze 25% more effciency out of today’s solar panels. They are combining inorganic and organic layers within one solar cell in order to capture more energy from the blue light of the visible spectrum.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Ecology, Environment, Geology, Heat, Monthly Recap, Seasonal Items, Technology, World Weather

The plane used by NOAA to study hurricanes, and now winter storms. Image from NOAA.

A Gulfstream twin-engine turbo jet used to study hurricanes will be put to work to help forecast winter storms this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  

In an article published Jan. 12^th, NOAA says the jet will be flown around the North Pacific Ocean in January and February.  It will deploy sensors to “collect information where the jet stream and moisture from the ocean interact and breed potentially powerful winter storms that impact North America several days later.”

On board the aircraft meteorologists will be looking at a host of atmospheric conditions.  Included in their laundry list are wind, pressure, temperature and humidity levels.

In the article, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Capt. Barry Choy says that comparing the information gathered with the sensors with satellite imagery “significantly enhance[s] four-to-seven day winter weather forecasts.” 

NOAA uses the plane to study hurricanes during the late summer and fall seasons.  Its selected flight path will be to the east and west of Hawa’ii where the plane is currently stationed and as far north as Alaska. 

To read the article in its entirety and to see photos, log on to: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120111_g4hawaii.html

Posted under Arctic climate, Environment, forecast, Hurricanes, International Weather, Nature, new media, Oceans, Science, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Storms, Weather and Health, Weather History, Weather NEws, World Weather

We have heard through the last few years about how the weather is supposedly getting more “wild” or extreme, primarily due to anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and there is some data that seems to back this up. Insured losses have been increasing in recent years and last year was the worst. 2011 was the costliest year of natural disasters on record, totaling 380 billion across the world!

One thing to remember, and something many commentators have pointed out, is that this is a record for INSURED losses. This plays a part in trying to assess any increase in extreme weather. Just because insured losses hit a record, does not necessarily mean that there were more devastating weather events. If could be that the worst weather of the year just happened to hit highly populated “expensive” areas of the world. The previous record year was 2005 when category 5 hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the gulf coast of the U.S. including the major population center of New Orleans. There have been other years with category 5 hurricanes that were unremarkable for insured losses because the hurricanes did not strike populated areas. So in order to know for sure that extreme weather is increasing, we will need to consider objective data besides insured losses. Climatologists have been busy tabulating the number of flood events, amounts of rainfall, number of heat waves, the number of record temperature events, and many other things. So far, the one trend that has been confirmed is that the frequency of heavy rain events is increasing in many parts of the world. At this page you can find some data about severe weather (including heavy rain) and whether or not it is increasing.

Satellite image of hurricane Katrina

Many other trends in extreme weather have not been robustly confirmed. There has been much debate about whether hurricanes have increased in number and/or intensity in recent decades. Many people expect this should be (or will be) the case because the temperature of the oceans has gone up a little and the heat content of the ocean is one of the key drivers of hurricanes. Reality has not kept up with these expectations. Hurricanes are complex weather phenomena and the temperature of the ocean is only one factor. Wind shear is quite important as well. A recent study by Christopher Landsea has found no substantial direct link between hurricanes and AGW and suggests that effects will be negligible through 2100. Once Landsea factored in population growth along the coast of the U.S. and better monitoring techniques, the apparent increase in insured losses and number/intensity of hurricanes was not substantial.

Japan Tsunami

Which brings us back to the record year of insured losses in 2011. It would not have been a record year for insured losses of natural disasters except for one event and you can probably guess what it was – the Japan earthquake and tsunami.  The earthquake and tsunami resulted in an estimated 210 billion in insured losses. Taking out that one event and we end up with only 170 billion in losses. It was still a bad year for “bad” weather and natural disasters, but 170 billion is 50 billion less than the previous record of 220 billion in 2005. Since earthquakes and tsunamis are not directly weather related, this should be kept in mind when using insured losses as a metric of whether extreme weather is increasing.

When discussing extreme weather and AGW, the vast majority of the content is negative. The basic premise is that AGW is going to theoretically destroy the environment. Once in a while though, something positive makes it into the discussion. In the past, the few positive aspects of the theoretical future warming hinge upon more areas around the poles becoming more habitable. The frozen north of Canada (and Siberia) might become a productive growing area.

Extent of the last ice age

Another potential positive (I think it is a good thing anyway), is that theoretical AGW might stall the onset of the next ice age. According to some geologists we are already overdo for an ice age. According to this latest research, an new ice age should begin within the next 1,500 years but the co-authors claim AGW will delay or prevent it. This is a good thing because if the planet became 5 degrees colder instead of 5 degrees warmer, we would have much bigger problems, in my opinion. Colder temps would mean an expansion of frozen tundra and the ice caps and likely lead to much less rainfall due to colder ocean temps and more water being locked up as ice at the poles. The would be much less space for agriculture. Much suffering would ensue. I am not saying hooray for AGW, but I am saying that delaying the next ice age is a good thing. If it a new ice age was upon us, we would probably be compelled to spend a lot of resources figuring out ways to warm up the planet.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Hurricanes, International Weather, Natural Disasters, Severe Weather, Storms, Tsunami, World Weather

This story is not exactly new, but it’s the first time I saw the bizarre photos.  During the spring of 2011 , parts of Pakistan that were so severely flooded in late 2010, saw their trees become engulfed in gigantic spider webs.  Experts believe the long lasting flood waters forced millions of spiders to climb up into the trees for refuge.   Because they had to stay there so long, they went ahead and built huge webs. 

They are quite creepy and beautiful looking all at the same time.  Experts believe they have had an unexpected side effect.  It was thought that this area of Pakistan would be ripe for a huge malaria outbreak with all the water sitting around for mosquito propagation.  However apparently the spider webs have caught so many mosquitoes that the malaria rate is much lower than feared.

I’ve seen webbing like this on a much smaller scale on some of my trees before.  It didn’t seem to be from spiders though.   They looked more like caterpillars and sometimes mites or beetles.  I suppose there are a number of critters than can create webs.

Posted under Flooding, Natural Disasters, Nature, Weather NEws, World Weather

Image from NOAA

The winter solstice is the shortest day of the year, but even a little bit of sunlight created a brilliant photo op from space.

Check out this incredible image from NOAA–its an image of the earth that includes all of South and North America plus parts of the North Pole and Antarctica taken on the 2011 Winter Solstice. 

Here’s the desription provided by NOAA: “Taken on December 22, 2011, this full hemisphere scan from the GOES East satellite shows Earth on the 2011 winter solstice. The solstice is the shortest day of the year, and is also notable because the Sun’s angle relative to the planet is at its most southern point, leaving the North Pole in darkness. The high angle is evident in this image, were no visible cloud imagery can be seen over the North Pole, whereas the South Pole is well lit. Clouds are actually present over the North Pole (and would be visible in infrared imagery), however the visible imager sensor on GOES requires sunlight to capture imagery – and there is no sunlight at the high latitudes.”

To see the image in more detail follow this link:  http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail.php?MediaID=912&MediaTypeID=1

When you get to the page, if you click on the image once, you’ll get an expanded zoom that shows amazing detail! 

It’s a bit astonishing to look at the image.  The earth looks so quiet, peaceful and calm.  You can’t tell that millions of people are on it, living their lives unaware of their photo being taken from space. 

What a nice way to bring in 2012, by seeing the earth from afar, and perhaps to reflect on what an incredible gift it is! 

And happy new year! 

Posted under astronomy, Environment, International Weather, Nature, new media, Science, Weather NEws, World Weather

With the Winter Solstice Wednesday night at 11:30 p.m. CST,  I have been daydreaming about how our weather and life for that matter would be different if the Earth’s axis was set much different than the current 23.5 degree tilt.  For example let’s say it were only a 5 degree tilt.  The amount and intensity of sunlight would vary little from season to season.  Thus the weather in any one spot probably woudn’t vary to much from season to season.  Likewise the climate of poleward latitudes might night be too much different than that of equatorial locations.  Of course there would still be differences based on position relative to mountains, oceans, deserts, and so on.   With a more uniform temperature structure across the globe, I imagine jet stream winds would be weaker, and thus storms would be weaker.  Perhaps hurricanes could get stronger and larger because they might have less wind aloft to shear them apart.

Now imagine an Earth with an axis tilt of say 45 degrees!  The seasons might be unbearable.  The hemisphere tilted away from the sun would have incredibly long, dark, and extremely cold winters.  Think Siberia over most of the Northern Hemisphere and drop the temperatures another 80 or 100 degrees.  I don’t think life would survive.  The summer hemisphere would conversely be incredibly hot with near continuous sunlight for months at a time.  I envision high temperatures commonly over 150 degrees F in large land areas, maybe 200 degrees plus!  I have no clue as to what this would do to storm and precipitation patterns but it probably would be really wild.  I guess this should remind us to be thankful that our Earth is positioned in such a way to be hospitable to life!

WHAT-IF IT STAYS WARM & DRY THIS WINTER?

Besides the downfall of snowmobiling, skiing, snowshoeing, sledding, and businesses that rely on snow, a mild winter would impact the Great Lakes.  The lower the ice cover is on the Great Lakes, the more evaporation of water will take place.  This will end up lowering the water level of the Great Lakes a fair amount.  You don’t think of water evaporating in the winter because it is cool and often cloudy.  But it certainly does.   Evaporation without replenishment from enough precipitation means lower lake levels.  This could have impacts for boating and fishing interest come spring.  It’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

Posted under Recreation & Sports, Seasonal Items, World Weather

The very dense fog Wednesday sure was a pain to drive through.  Visibilities dropped to a few hundred feet at times.  It was caused by mild and very moist air riding over the top of the cold ground and melting snow pack.  The air was extremely saturated.  I for one am glad that we don’t have fog that thick on a weekly basis around here.  

Did you know that the foggiest place in the world is the Grand Banks off Newfoundland?  It is  the meeting place of the cold Labrador ocean current and the much warmer Gulf Stream ocean current coming up from the south.  The fog that forms there, just as the type that formed around Wisconsin Wednesday is called advection fog.  Other times we have what is called radiation fog.  It forms on clear and calm nights when the temperature drops rapidly down to the dew point.  The air becomes saturated and fog forms.  It is especially common if the ground is moist from recent rains or a wet snow.

Check out the map below.  It shows the average number of fog days per year acrosss the United States.  You probably won’t be suprised to see the highest frequency of fog is along the seaboards, near the Great Lakes, and in mountainous areas of the eastern U.S.   The areas in red average over 40 days per year with fog.  Northern Wisconsin averages around 30 while southern Wisconsin is closer to 20 days per year.  I noticed that the Rocky Mountain States have a pretty low number of fog days per year compared to the Appalachians.  I assume that is because in general the air is much drier in the Rocky Mountain area than out east.

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS WITH FOG PER YEAR

Posted under Travel, Winter Weather, World Weather