Given the rather bizarre weather we have seen this season, many people are asking where winter has been all year.  We’ve seen temperatures quite untypical for February.  Snow cover is low or in many places around Wisconsin, non existent.  Snowmobilers are frustrated while those who could do without the cold and snow are enjoying every minute. 

While we bask in the warmth of temps that are nearly twice as warm as the typically are this time of year, the National Weather Service has release an  interesting article about the history and accuracy of Punxsutawney Phil and Groundhog Day as a whole. 

To have a look at this interesting article, follow this link to the National Weather Service: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/special-reports/groundhog-day.php 

Happy reading, and happy Groundhog Day!

This report about India claims that solar panels in that country are now cheaper than running a diesel generator. In fact, the solar panels are typically half the cost of diesel power, not to mention much cleaner. If this trend continues, it will be a no-brainer for Indians to buy solar panels over fossil fuel, and this could perhaps help maintain the fragile (subsidy-supported) industry. This article about solar panel adoption in Africa also hints at the positive trend. The combination of cheap solar panels and one of my other favorite subjects – LED lighting – has made solar electric powered lighting (and gadget re-charging) more feasible than using fossil fuel such a kerosene. Here is an older article about some of the various solar lighting tech employed in remote and poor areas of Africa. Solar/LED is not as cheap as using old plastic soda bottles for lighting, but it is becoming a better option in developing countries.

Remember too, that the efficiency of solar panels continues to increase incrementally year-over-year. Along with the lower manufacturing cost, efficiency gains will make solar even more attractive in coming years. The panel prices here in the U.S. have dropped dramatically as well. The main problem that remains is the installation cost. That is what prevents me from getting solar panels on my roof just yet. For anyone who can figure out a way to reduce the cost of installation there is some money to be made.

So what has driven the cost of solar panels down so much? More efficient manufacturing for the most part (and the aforementioned subsidies). Every day I hear or read about another incremental improvement in solar panel production. Recently, Astrowatt has developed a new method for creating silicon wafers which involves peeling the silicon off the inguts instead of sawing it off. This wastes less material and since polysilicon is one of the more expensive pieces of the solar puzzle, it should reduce the cost by a small percentage. On the power electronics side of things, Arraypower has invented a new type of DC to AC inverter that could cut the cost of big solar installations by 10%.

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Now a follow-up on a developing technology that seems to be flying under radar of popular culture but not under the radar of this blog. It is cloaking. The latest engineering feat comes from the University of Texas at Austin. They have created the world’s first 3D cloak to hide an object in free space. They have used surface plasmons on metamaterials to achieve this feat, which is a little too complicated to explain here. But don’t expect to wear a Harry Potter invisibility cloak anytime soon, this cloaking was again in the microwave range of the electro-magnetic spectrum, not in the visible range, but it is amazing none-the-less.

In a year or two I expect more cloaking developments in the visible range. Perhaps some large scale cloaking might be demonstrated in a decade. I don’t know if people appreciate how much this technology would change society. In the movies, it is usually just the protagonist or villain who has the invisibility cloak, which makes for simple drama. What if everyone had access to this? The ramifications would be immense and unsettling. It would certainly affect the power relationship between oppressive government and the people. It would affect warfare and crime. Like most disruptive technology it would likely be feared at first but accepted eventually.

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Lastly, another report about the attempt to drill into Lake Vostok. In this article, the Russian scientists are quoted as not being certain whether they will be able to complete the drilling before Winter sets in and might have to wait until next Summer (Summer in Antarctica, that is).

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew

With the prospect of another solar minimum right around corner you know there are sure to be some fireworks in AGW discussions. Most scientists expect that solar activity will be lower than normal for the next few decades. This has led to speculation that our recent warmer climate might turn colder again. Most mainstream scientists think that “greenhouse gases” will overwhelm any effect from the sun. The Daily Mail (not the most scientific of sources) published this article recently taking a look at both sides of the issue.

Historical Sunspot Trends

Just in case the notion that the sun has a noticeable effect on the climate permeated to culture too much, some climatologists and media outlets were quick to point out that even if the sun’s output did decrease, it would only drop the earth’s temperature by a couple tenths of a degree in the next few decades. Alternatively, AGW projections estimate the earth could warm by 2 to 4 degrees. Gizmodo says we are NOT in for another little ice age, only a less extreme heat wave (if solar output goes down). James Hansen made sure to point out that recently, the earth has been absorbing more energy than it is emitting back into space, so it is likely that the climate will continue to warm.

Even though we could end up with increasing global temperatures, that does not mean that we would be without harsh winter’s. Past research has suggested and recent research has bolstered the premise that Europe could end up with more harsh winters because of less ice in the arctic.

Ice on the Black Sea

Less ice in the arctic changes the wind patterns and allows for more moisture in the air, thus the possibility of more snow and cold in parts of Europe. That would seem to be the case this year as many areas of central and eastern Europe are currently in the grip of an extreme cold wave. Many new monthly record lows have been set in Bulgaria and the Black sea is partially frozen. Just to give you an idea of how significant this cold wave is, the Black Sea has only completely frozen over 3 different times in modern recorded history.

Digesting the news and theories over the last couple of days, I could definitely see how a new little, or major, ice age could form. If increased volcanism occurred at the same time of a solar minimum while the world’s oceans are warmer than normal, this could lead to a lot more snow on land. The key point here is that the earths oceans have been warming up and they will not divest that warmth very easily (water has a high thermal stability). If the atmosphere cools down rapidly due to (volcanism and/or low solar activity) while the oceans stay warm, it could lead to greater temperature contrasts across the globe and more moisture in the air, both of which could drive stronger storms and more harsh wintry weather. While this is a possibility, odds are that we will continue to see some warming in the near future.

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Just one quick follow-up on a story I have been reporting on for a few years now: the Russians are very close to breaking into Vostok lake in Antarctica. This is a lake that is buried under at least 2 miles of ice and has not seen sunlight in over 100,000 years. Some scientists think that weird life forms might exist under the ice and are concerned that the Russian drilling experiment might contaminate the lake with pollutants of bacteria from the surface. Read more here.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Thursday is the day the Groundhog steals the show, at least for one day.  I’m always amazed at how much press time groundhog Phil in Pennsylvania and Jimmy in Sun Prairie, WI among others gather on Groundhog’s Day.  It is mentioned on almost every newscast, talk show, in the papers, on the radio, and of course the Internet.  It certainly is a fun little tradition.  I definitely don’t put any credence into the shadow, non-shadow issue predicting spring or not.

I thought it would be good to actually investigate what science says about groundhog behavior this time of the year.  I read an article based on the work of Dr. Stan Zervanos, a biology professor at Penn State Berks.  He has been researching groundhog hibernation for over a dozen years.  He found that groundhogs don’t just crawl in a hole and sleep the entire winter.  Rather, they go through a series of torpor (deep sleep) and arousal episodes throughout winter. 

During arousal they normally stay in their burrows, but in early spring they emerge briefly and move around above ground a bit.   This is important for males as they use the time to start scouting the area for potential mates and so on.  Then they return to the hole for more deep sleep episodes.  In the northern U.S., they usually come out of their holes for good sometime in early March for mating.  The timing of emergence is fairly predictable based on latitude.  Dr. Zervanos found that at the latitude of Maine, which is about the same as Wisconsin the hibernation period is around 175 days.  This is quite a bit different than say South Carolina or Arkansas, where it is only 67 days.  This timing is very important because if mating were to occur to early the offspring would be weaned at a time in the spring when food supplies are not adequate yet.  You can read much more about his findings at http://www.bk.psu.edu/31377.htm

Even outside the theoretical effects that human beings might be having on the atmosphere, the earth and atmosphere is in a constant state of change. The Sahara desert was once covered by large lakes. The arctic has had much more ice as recent as a few hundred years ago during the Little Ice Age. Before that, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the arctic was mostly ice free a few times during interglacial periods. During these wide swings in ice cover and temperature, no doubt there was some angst about the changing climate. There was most likely some hardship before people and animals were able to adapt to the changing conditions. This is not to say that possible future AGW is OK (we should try to reduce our negative environmental impacts as much as feasible), just that we should remember that things change.  Spending too much time reminiscing about what was, leaves less time to prepare for what will be.

Speaking of what was, I mentioned the Little Ice Age a bit earlier and there is some new research suggesting that increased volcanism during the 1275 to 1300 period might have triggered it, or at least helped it along. If you are familiar with the Little Ice Age, you know that a leading theory is that reduced solar energy (known as the Maunder Minimum). This solar theory is not conclusive but one cannot help but notice the trend in temps and solar activity seemed to go hand-in-hand, especially during the coldest point of the Little Ice Age. However, one must not rule out volcanic activity. It is well known that large volcanic eruptions (like Pinatubo and Krakatoa) can cool the planet by a degree or two for a couple of years after the eruption. What is theorized in this latest study is that successive large volcanic eruptions cooled the planet for a couple of decades and this created a positive feedback loop of colder temps leading to more sea ice formation. The increased sea ice then reflected more of the sun’s energy into space leading to cooler temps. This is an interesting theory, and no doubt there was some cooling due to volcanic eruptions, however, I would expect that the volcanism would show up a bit more dramatically in the re-constructed temperature graphs from around the late 1200s into the early 1300s. Perhaps the granularity of the data obscures the temperature changes a bit, but if volcanism was the main trigger for the Little Ice Age, then there should be some evidence in the temperature record during that time.

On the subject of ice ages, there is a recent theory that the periodic ice ages beginning around 450 million years ago were caused by the arrival of plants on the earth’s surface. The theory is that early plants (resembling mosses) covered land masses and led to chemical weathering of the rocks. The minerals released from this process ended up turning into carbonate materials, with the carbon coming from the atmosphere. The minerals might have also fertilized the oceans as well, leading to more growth of plant life. Once free carbon dioxide was now being bound up in the process of life and this could have led to a decrease in the global temperature seen around that period. I say could have, because there are a lot of assumptions built into the theory. The atmosphere and climate are so complex that even today it is hard to predict how they will evolve together. 450 million years ago the land masses were different, the earth’s orbit and tilt were different, the magnetic poles we different. It all adds up to a difficult job of deciphering temperature changes.

It is not all that difficult to decipher what happened last month because we keep track of the daily conditions right here at StormTrack9! The month of January ended up 6 degrees above normal. It was about the same amount above normal as the month of December. I can’t remember the last time we had to months in a row when temps were that far above normal….whoops, nope….I do remember. It was February and March of 2000. February of that year was 9 degrees above normal and March was 11 degrees above normal.

January of 2012 did not feel a whole lot like winter with 6 different days rising above 40 degrees. This warmth included 2 days with record highs. In Wausau, we had a record high of 47 on the 10th and 45 on the 11th. The best part about the month, in my opinion, is that precipitation was a little above normal. It is nice to start out the year on an above normal trend. Besides being above normal, there were no other odd patterns in the numbers. Here are the final January stats for Wausau:

Average High Temp: 29.3  (normal: 23.1)

Average Low Temp: 12.0  (normal: 6.0)

Precipitation: 1.04 inches  (normal: 1.02 inches)

Snowfall: 12.3 inches  (normal: 13.5 inches)

Highest Temperature: 47 on January 10th

Lowest Temperature: -14 on January 20th

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Speaking of more productivity, our phones are a great example and  have the capability of tracking our location which could be used to help sync up different modes of transportation to our needs. As I mentioned yesterday, people are already sharing cars. There are also bike renting/sharing outfits. If these can be coordinated with large mass transit like buses and trains, it should make the whole country more efficient and make the roads a lot less crowded. Use of information-assisted commuting has potential to help turn the tide.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Perhaps you remember back to this time in 2011 when Milwaukee, Chicago and a long strip from Oklahoma to Lower Michigan were paralyzed by a  massive blizzard.  From late on January 31st to early on February 2nd, roughly 18 to 24 inches of snow buried the southeast tip of Wisconsin into northeast Illinois.  Winds gusting to 5o or 60 mph whipped the snow into huge drifts over 8 feet deep in spots.  Many cars were stranded even in downtown Chicago.  Chicago had it’s highest 24-hour snowfall in this storm, with 20″.  Their storm total was over 21 at O’Hare.  Massive waves were generated on Lake Michigan as well.

This storm largely missed central and northern Wisconsin with just an inch or so about as far north as Stevens Point.  There is an excellent writeup with many stunning pictures and graphs from the Chicago National Weather Service Office.  You can check it out here,   http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=2011blizzard

A little bit later that week, Dallas-Fort Worth, TX was hit with ice, a bit of snow, and unseasonably cold conditions.  You may recall it made a snarled mess of air and land travel into that area prior to the Super Bowl.  I’m sure when they booked the Super Bowl there years in advance, they weren’t expecting something like that.

We don’t expect any major problems in Indianapolis this year leading up to the Super Bowl.  However there could be some light rain there Tuesday afternoon or evening.  Temperatures will be unseasonably warm actually, in the 50s and 40s much of the week.  It’s possible some more rain may sneak into that region for the weekend, but it is still uncertain.

One method of changing the polluted concrete American jungle into something more desirable would be through changing our priorities. As I mentioned in “Housing Starts Are Negative“, if we place more emphasis on other metrics of progress, like economic efficiency, health, happiness, etc. then maybe there will be less focus on building more stuff (just for the economy’s sake). When we stop looking upon the building of a new freeway interchange as a sign of progress and instead a sign of more traffic jams and pollution, then we will be getting somewhere.

The other method of changing some aspects of the concrete life is through technology. The pollution created on all the freeways around the country could be cut down with the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). The effect would be even better if people powered them up using solar panels – which some early-adopters are already doing. Helping spur this transition toward EVs is a company I have profiled a couple of times here in the blog – Project Better Place. They just recently launched a fleet of 100 EVs for the roads in Israel. The cars have a range of 100 miles and can have their batteries switched at one of several different “battery stations” in the country. Next year, they expect the top selling cars in Israel and Denmark to be electric. Of course, it is one thing to drive EVs and make a big impact in tiny countries like Denmark and Israel, it is another thing to do it in the U.S. Hopefully they can make money overseas in order to expand more here in the U.S. Currently, I think they only have one battery changing station in the San Francisco Bay area (and one in Tokyo).

RelayRides for car sharing

Another way that traffic and pollution might come down is through car sharing. At first this sounded rather foreign to me because like most Americans I treat my car like an extension of my home. It is almost a like fundamental right of being American –  to have your own car. After I thought about it a bit more, it started to make sense, and it is definitely making more and more sense for young people in Urban environments around the U.S and in Europe. Car sharing is increasing. I could probably get by on car sharing. My wife and I live within walking or biking distance to work. We would only need to rent/share a car one a week for groceries/shopping, and about once a month to visit family or relatives outside of Wausau.

Not only does car sharing cut down on traffic, it saves people who don’t drive a lot a ton of money. Owning a car is a huge money sink. The upfront cost is of course one of the bigger expenditures people make in their life (other than a house). Then there are the ongoing costs which pile up significantly – most of them mandated by government.

• Fuel costs, including ever increasing gas taxes.
• Parking cost, exorbitant in big cities
• Insurance, mandated in most states
• Toll roads in many areas of the country
• Car tax – the yearly registration – always going up.
• Regular maintenance
• Annual vehicle inspections/smog inspections in many states
• Fines for not maintaining you vehicle
• The list goes on and on.

When I think about how little time I spend in my car (especially in the Summer when I ride to work), it is amazing how much money I pour into it. We certainly value our freedom to roam.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

MIT-designed CityCar

From a miss (Ener1) to a potential hit on another future trend – electric vehicles. So many future designs and EV dreams have passed before my eyes and the pages of this blog  in the past few years that you might be swayed into believing that everyone is driving one by now. While that is not the case, some cars have made it onto the market including one that I didn’t think would succeed, or at least not make it from concept to commercial product. It is the MIT-designed “CityCar” (not to be confused with the T.27 city car). A commercial version was recently unveiled in Europe. Now we will see if there is a market for this tiny electric car that “folds up” to fit into tight parking spaces. Basically, if you like the Smart Car and think it is cute, then you will probably love the CityCar. I would buy one and drive it around town (keeping a gas car for longer drives on the freeway). The only barrier will likely be price. A couple years ago I was amazed at how expensive the Smart Four 2 was for being so small and only getting 40 mpg. Most electrics are rather pricey and this story announcing its availability does not give a price.

And since we are on the topic of businesses and products succeeding or failing, I might as well mention the iconic American company Kodak. They recently filed for bankruptcy. After reorganization they are planning to dip their toes into thin film solar panel production. Some people think that their old photographic film business could be transformed into solar panel production. I suppose it is a possibility but the solar market is already ultra-competitive. There has been a lot of commentary about Kodak’s demise because it used to be a giant among U.S. companies. A lot of people blame the management for not seeing the future of digital photography, but that wasn’t the main problem. In fact, Kodak invented digital photography and manufactured good digital cameras. The main problem was that the film business was so much larger and more profitable. Even if Kodak aggressively pursued digital photography and digital cameras and completely dominated the market, they still would have had to shed most of their workforce and their stock price would still be a tiny fraction of what it was during the 1970s and 1980s. The digital picture business is vary low margin compared to film. There just was not a lot of money to be made there – not enough to support a company the size of Kodak.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.