Earlier this week I linked to an article about how NASA/NOAA are using a UAV (the global hawk) to study hurricanes this year and Earl is presenting a very good opportunity to test its abilities. Not only is the robotic aircraft studying Earl, up to 7 other planes are circling the storm and gathering data. Sometimes I muse about how much interest there is in hurricane research in conjunction with how good the forecasts are. The 1 to 2 day forecasts of hurricane track and intensity are already superb (even the 3 to 4 day forecasts are usually very good). More research would probably extend the confidence in the longer range track forecast, but mostly what I think will be gained is more subtle. Hurricane researchers want to understand better how and why hurricanes intensify and weaken. These changes sometimes happen abruptly and unexpectedly. For the latest on Earl check out the NHC website.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Of course, if there is going to be frost this weekend, that means the weekend is going to be on the cool side. My forecast has been trimmed by a couple of degrees since yesterday. Get-away Friday is looking quite unpleasant (for this time of year) with high temps only in the low 60s, mostly cloudy skies, a strong northwest wind, and a few light showers. Saturday will be a little better with partly cloudy skies and only a slim chance of a sprinkle or shower. However, the conditions will still be more Fall-like than Summer-like with high temps in mid to upper 60s and a gusty northwest wind. Sunday might be the best day, although not the warmest of the 3-day weekend. High temps should be in the upper 60s to low 70s on Sunday with partly or mostly sunny skies. Monday will be warmer with highs in the 70s but there is a 30% chance of rain late in the day.

Month in Review:

Since we have now passed from August to September, it is time for the month in review. You can get a very detailed review at the NWS Green Bay climate page. Just select “monthly summary” and the city you want to view. Here is Wausau, August was about as warm as July. Normally, it is about 3 degrees cooler. August was above normal by about 3.5 degrees which makes it the 7thout of 8 months so far this year that have been above normal. June was the only below normal month (going by the mean temp). Rainfall was below normal but not so far below normal as to cause problems, plus many locations in the northwoods and south of Wausau ended up withabove normal rain for the third month in a row. The only record broken here in Wausau was 1.64 inches of rain that fell on the 9th. A couple spots broke the record for the record warm low temperature on the 30th, but that did not occur in Wausau. The high of 91 on the 9th was the second warmest temperature of the year. This means that the high temp of 92 on May 24th will likely stand as the warmest temp of the year. Here are the stats for Wausau:

Average High: 81.1  (normal: 78.3)

Average Low: 61.5  (normal: 57.4)

Precipitation: 3.88 inches  (normal 4.53 inches)

Highest Temp: 91 on the 9th

Lowest Temp: 46 on the 26th

Alternative Energy:

I have spent a little blog time recently giving my not-so-optimistic view of biofuels as a “clean fuel of the future”. What about wind power? This is another form of alternative energy with which I am not 100% positive. I realize the draw. I am familiar with the arguments for wind power, but I am also cognizant of the downsides. This opinion piece in WIRED reminds me of the downsides- essentially, mass adoption of wind power might require mass relinquishment of freedom. The author seems to want the best for the environment and economy but his solution to making wind power a “reality” in the U.S. is for the federal government to run roughshod over property rights, forcing people to give up their land and homes to make way for monstrous wind farms and transmission lines. This reminds me of the other day when my wife and I were walking down a country road and talking about how the weather and the scenery was perfect. My wife said that if we had a holodeck (ala Star Trek) this is the type of day/scene she would program in for a “virtual vacation”. I said it was perfect for me as well except that I would take out the power lines (and change the paved road to a dirt road).  Unfortunately with wind power, we will end up with more and more power lines. We will also end up with a lot more noise. Giant wind farms affect the weather and animal life in ways that are just coming to light. Granted, these are not HUGE issues (ok, maybe reducing liberty and stealing property is big) but they are there, and they make me less positive about the future of wind power. In contrast, solar power looks much more promising. I wouldn’t mind if my neighbor put a few solar panels on his roof, but I might if he constructed a large wind turbine. Because solar panels do not have moving parts, they do not make noise and they can be aesthetically incorporated into our existing urban infrastructure – close to where the electricity is needed. Back to the power line issue, mass adoption of solar might even reduce the need for power lines. There is also this fact: wind energy is a dead end. There is very little that can be done anymore to squeeze more energy out of a wind turbine or make it more efficient. I have reported on some new innovative designs over the last couple of years but the gains in efficiency and cost are minuscule compared to the upside potential of solar power.

Out of the three major alternative energy sources currently available (biofuels, wind, solar), it is solar that has the upper hand in my view. It has the greatest upside and the fewest drawbacks. I think it is time that we start shifting more of our resources into solar energy.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

When sampling the summer season, for official records sake we use the combination of the June, July, and August records. 

With only a few more hours to go for the record books…so far this summer in Wausau we have seen 18.40″ inches of rain, currently putting this summer as the 6th wettest.  But we have more rain to go!! 

Looking at the current radar trends, I think there is a very good chance we pick up another half inch by midnight.  And if we happen to land under one of the stronger thunderstorm cells for a while, we could see much more.  A half of an inch of rain would canapult this summer up to 4th place, and one inch would put summer 2010 in 3rd.  It will be exciting to see where we end up. 

Over the next couple days I will also look into other towns in the area.  Some may actually have had their wettest summer ever.  Marshfield for example has seen 22.15″ of rain this summer!!..with more knocking the door.

As mentioned before, this has been a very wet summer for the entire state.  Records may be broken in Madison, La Crosse, Green Bay, and Milwaukee..

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=56985&source=0

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=arx&storyid=55674&source=0

By the time you read this, The summer rain totals and ranks may be much higher!!

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Perhpas the money going toward biofuels should be shifted toward solar or nuclear power or toward energy research. The U.S is currently spending a lot of money on different alternative energy projects but some people worry that the money will run out before the projects become profitable. Perhaps the cleaner technologies could be sustained longer if support for grain ethanol was diminished. In my opinion, grain ethanol has had its day in the sun and it couldn’t reach profitability. Now it is time to move on. I would prefer it if the government didn’t exert so much influence over the energy industry, but if they are going to waste money they might as well move on to something that has a little more promise for the future and would fit better with electric vehicles.

Besides not being very profitable, biofuels will not help much with pollution and could even make things worse. Also, even if there is some tiny benefit in reducing carbon dioxide emmissions (and theoretically keep the planet cooler), biofuels use will not help much with the problem of acidic oceans.

Forecast:

For the big holiday weekend, the forecast is still looking about the same as yesterday. The highest chance of heavier precipitation will be today and Thursday. Friday is still looking very breezy cool with a few light showers or sprinkles. The weekend should be decent. On Saturday and Sunday I am expecting sunny to partly cloudy skies and high temps in the upper 60s on Saturday and in the low to mid 70s on Sunday. Monday should be a bit warmer – in the mid to upper 70s – and I am calling for a 30% chance of rain, mainly late in the day.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

At this point, I am not overly concerned about the storms, but we will certainly have to watch things closely.  By Tuesday morning there will be some ongoing storm action to our Northwest.  A few of the storms may move into or pop up over our NW counties, like Taylor, Price, Ashland, and Iron.  These storms will likely not be severe. 

Most of North Central Wisconsin probably won’t see any storms until the late afternoon and evening.  This afternoon/evening round of storms will have plenty of fuel to feed off of.  Forecast models indicated dew points around 70 and CAPE(instability or storm energy) over 2000.  Those numbers are certainly strong enough to support severe development.  Given the sheer parameters, I think well have multi-cellular line storm segments, instead of individual super-cells.  Which means straight line winds are way more of a threat than tornadoes.  The tornado threat is greater across portions of Iowa and southern Minnesota.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Talk about blowing things out of proportion. That is the coverage afforded the report last weak of a Brazilian scientist who discovered that electricity could be mined from humid air. This is a neat little bit of science but I doubt it will result in anything significant anytime soon. Judging by all of the headlines saying “clean energy from humid air”, I think there must be a thirst for stories about alternative energy. Here is another story today. Also here is my blog comment from last week. The thing is, it is unlikely that any useful amount of electricity can be ”grabbed” from humid air. The electricity involved is tiny. Thunderstorms create lightning by moving truly tremendous amounts of air up and down through the atmosphere. We don’t have anything in the present to replicate this scale.

A slightly different story about skepticism, scorn, and triumph, is that of the wind-powered vehicle that moves faster than the wind. The two engineers who made the vehicle (wind powered car), faced quite an intellectual battle among not only amateur geeks but professional scientists. I blogged about this car a few months back. Now the two inventors have written an interesting account of their trevails. It is an interesting read. The two first did the math and proved that this was possible in theory. Hardly anyone believed them even though the math was perfectly valid. Once they built the car for demonstration of the concept, hardly anyone believed it and wanted to see the math. Funny. Their achievement has been documented and proven and yet their are many people who call themselves physicists and mathematicians who still dismiss it as impossible.

Then there are engineering feats that are “technically possible” but you have to wonder how they ever got ink (press coverage). I came across this one because I follow alternative energy ideas quite often. The idea is to replace asphalt in the roads with solar panels. Yes – pave roads completely with solar panels. I know this is theoretically possible…and I am confident that most readers of the blog can come up with dozens of reasons why this idea will fly like a lead balloon, so I won’t go in to all the details.

Lastly, I just wanted to mention the medium range forecast since the upcoming weekend is a long holiday weekend. It looks like there will be a chance of rain late tomorrow, again on Thursday, and perhaps a few light showers in the northwoods on Friday. Right now, Saturday and Sunday are looking good for outdoor activities, albeit the weather be a bit cooler than recently. Both days should be sunny to partly cloudy. High temps will only be in the 60s on get-away Friday, then climb up to around 70 on Saturday, and into the lower and mid 70s on Sunday. The last day of the 3-day weekend – Monday – I am calling for a chance of rain.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

What was the biggest issues in New Orleans was the levies and something we constantly heard after it hit- would the leaves hold.  Katrina storm surge causes 53 levee  to breach causing most of the city to be inhabitable. 

Overall Katrina was the most costly and destructive hurricane to hit the United States.  It produced 81.2 billion dollars in damage, this is double the most destructive hurricane before Katrina which was Hurricane Andrew in 1992.  Damage occurred in Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama. It was also sadly the deadliest hurricane since Hurricane Okeechobee in 1928, which is astonishing considering the technology and advanced warning we have in the 21st century.  Over 1800 people died from Katrina in August of 2005. 

During the time Katrina happened I remembered talking with friends that lived in New Orleans about their experience.  I was on a national board for an organization and a few of the members were from Xavier.  It really hits home when you talk to them about living through the day.  I also remember talking to a friend who attended Loyola which ended up being close for the semester.  It’s crazy how in one day everything can change.

 I visited New Orleans in May of 2007, although alot of recovery had occurredit was unbelievable to still see how much they still had to rebuild.  I remember most the drive from the airport and looking at the sections of town that hadn’t even been touched with rebuilding.  I also saw an IMAX film with Harry Connick Jr which explained why the marshes are so important at protecting the coastal Parishes and how Katrina really tore them apart.  There was still markings from what was inhabitable.  And still 5 years later there are areas under construction. 

Katrina was a sad reminder to just how powerful mother nature can be.  I know we learned about about preparation, construction and advanced time in warnings and these are lessons that will hopefully prevent such a disaster happening again to the US.

Look at the flooding.  Here is a link to the damage and recovery.

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

There is also an area of low pressure off the Louisiana coast that has caused flooding around New Orleans.  They were seeing rain rates at an inch per hour.  Off course tomorrow marks the devastating anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.  This statement from the National Weather Service office in New Orleans was written the day before the hurricane made landfall. It really hits home to just how terrible a Natural Disaster Katrina was.  What are building process that has been.

Our first major Hurricane, Hurricane Danielle luckily had no impact to the US.  It also missed Bermuda pushing to the East of the British Isle.  So thankfully she was a powerful storm that didn’t cause destruction.  She did cause issues through from rip currents.  Over 70 people were rescued in Brevard county with one surfer drowning.  There was also over 100 rescues in Virgina Beach. 

Now all eyes are on Earl.  He could atleast brush close to the Eastern Seaboard but only has about a 20% chance of making a landfall on the US.  IT has been stuck in the current of Danielle but will begin to break free and track more westward than north like its predecessor.  It will pass just to the North of the Leeward Islands and the Caribbean but shouldn’t make any landfalls.  Still tropical storm force winds, and high surf  will be issues for the islands through the beginningof the week.  It should then track towards the north and run mainly parallel to the East Coast. 

On a different subject…. I mentioned earlier about seeing the International Space Station in the night sky.  Saturday nights viewings are at 8:17 for 4 minutes and at 9:54 for 1 minute.  Sunday night you can see the ISS at 8:46 pm.  For all viewing look towards the WNW.  For a complete list of all the times you can check out that link. 

Meteorologsit Kristen Connolly

Alternative Energy:

Perhaps you came across this news perusing science and weather news over the last couple of days: Brazilian scientist proposes to generate electricity from air. This is not a proposal to capture the electricity from lightning strikes – something I have thought of before – it is a method to extract minute amounts of electricity from water droplets. Humid air would be the best target. While this sounds interesting in theory and probably works as described, I have my doubts that this method could ever generate any substantial amount of electricity at a competitive cost. The amount of of charge collected from each water droplet is very minuscule. It might take a massive installation in order to generate a usable current. So how does nature create such dramatic and large displays of electricity (lightning)? Through thunderstorms. Thunderstorms move truly massive amounts of air and separate positive and negative charges in the process. So how does lightning begin? Some researchers are looking at terrestrial gamma ray flashes as the “spark” of lightning.

Lightning is also an interesting subject in hurricane research. Lightning intensity and frequency change as a hurricane changes in strength. Researchers want to know how direct is the relationship in order to help with forecasting. To study lightning in hurricanes NASA is using autonomous drones - specifically the Global Hawk. For the latest on Danielle, Earl, and other tropical disturbances be sure to check the National Hurricane Center website.

Finishing up on the hurricane topic, there was an article recently that suggested major cities can attract hurricanes. Now this is not some magical force that cities exert from hundreds of miles away, it is only something that has shown up in computer simulations of hurricane movement when they get close to landfall. It turns out (according to the models) that “rougher” land surfaces make hurricanes change course a bit. The hurricanes move toward the land surfaces with more friction or roughness. In some coastal areas, large cities with big buildings produce more roughness than the surrounding landscape and thus could cause a hurricane path to shift a bit toward the city.

Have a good Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Check it out…  Brazil Fire Tornado  …pretty crazy huh.?.?..

Technically, of course, this not an actual tornado.  The swirling column of air has to be attached to a cloud base in order to be a tornado.  But it’s a cool name for a cool phenomenon.  The ‘Fire Tornado’ also has other names like a “Fire whirl” and a “Fire Devil.”  The “Fire Devil” is probably the best name because it’s formation is very similar to a dust devil.  It forms when there is a typical wind eddy present, just like when you see a swirl of leaves.  This swirl rapidly intensifies when it interacts with the extreme heat from fire.  The heat from the fire creates a very strong updraft, which creates a rotating vertical column of air and fire.  The crazy part…”Fire Tornadoes” can have winds up to 100 mph!!!

Here are a couple other videos of “Fire Tornadoes”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1hczOv4DeI&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbwfNSLshW8&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Fw1qiAld2U&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0vN0iz-Y_8

*Here is an additional write up on Fire Tornadoes if you are interested*

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky