May 16th Remaining SnowMay 16th Remaining Snow

Some new pictures from up on the “mountain”. I konw it doesn’t look like all that much has melted but is is probably half the size it was last week and melting quickly. Will it last through this weekend? It will be quite warm on Friday and Saturday. Good luck to everyone who entered.

Have a fine Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

May is certainly a  month of warming across Wisconsin.  The average low temperature rises from around 40 at the start of the month to near 50 at the end.  The average high temperature climbs from the lower 60s at month’s start to the lower 70s at month’s end.  The hottest temperature on record in May for Wausau is 104 degrees set back on May 31st, 1934.   The coldest on record is 20 degrees from May 9th, 1947.  That’s a pretty impressive extreme range, 84 degrees.

The normal May precipitation for the Wausau area is 3.48″ with a normal snowfall of 0.20″.  One of the wettest Mays on record for our region was in 1942 when 10.74″ of moisture fell.  One of the driest was May of 1949 when just over 1.0″ fell.

May is a month of heavy gardening and the traditional start of the growing season around here.  We typically have our last frosts of the season around early to mid May in central Wisconsin and late May in northern Wisconsin.  We usually have a round or two of strong to severe thunderstorms in the state and every few years some snow comes our way as well in May.  I always look to May as the bridge between really shaky spring conditions where it can be quite cold, rainy, snowy, and windy to true summer with its day after day of heat and sunshine.  Hope you enjoy the rest of this interesting month.

But I digress. Back to the natural gas story, the main reason why power companies are switching to natural gas is because the price is quite low and the U.S. has a HUGE supply that could easily last decades (maybe peak oil is not such a big threat - something I have argued for years). People prefer low prices. An interesting survey recently found that a majority of Americans wouldn’t mind paying up to 13% more for electricity, if they knew it came from alternative sources. I doubt it. The reality is in the market. People want cheaper prices for the most part. That is why power companies are using nat gas more right now. If people were so willing to pay 13% more, power companies would have already made more of a move toward wind and solar.

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Now an update on the snowmelt contest. I walked up Rib Mountain to get a picture of the snow yesterday. There is still a sizable pile of snow but it is noticeably shrinking. The pictures probably do not do the melting justice. That being said, we are most likely a few days away from the winning date. Good luck to everyone who predicted dates in mid to late May.

Snow Picture from May 13thSnow Picture from May 13th

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

May is a month when we can usually put the snow shovels away for good and not have to pull them out.  However, it seems like every 5 or 10 years a sneaky snow event shows up in Wisconsin.  For example on May 7th, 2010 the north half of the TV-9 viewing area was dealing with 2 to 4″ of wet, heavy snow.  It caused extensive damage to trees and especially the ginseng crop.  Many of the shades over the top of the crop were ripped down by the heavy snow.

The heaviest May snowfall on record for Wausau proper is 5.5″ which fell on May 2nd, 1935.  The latest data with at least 1″ snowfall for Wausau is May 12th.  We have had trace snowfall amounts as late as May 30th.  That occurred as recently as 1989.

The biggest May snowstorm of record for eastern Wisconsin occurred on May 10th, 1990.  As much as 8″ coated areas just northwest of Milwaukee with up to 6″ up to Green Bay and even Oconto Counties.  Many thousands lost power as the wet snow clung to trees that already had leafed out.  In fact in the city of Waukesha, about 80% of it’s 30,000 trees were damaged or destroyed.  Around 4 million dollars worth of damage occurred throughout the state.  Schools were closed and road plows were busy.  You can read more about this storm from the following link.  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grb&storyid=82851&source=0

Snow pile on Rib MountainSnow pile on Rib Mountain

Also, I apologize for not blogging as much recently. I have been a little too busy with some new things and some presentations. One presentation I am working on that you might consider attending is “Space & Weather” which will occur at the Woodson Art Museum in Wausau this coming Saturday (May 12th) from 1 to 2 pm. I will explore the nature of the weather from the surface of the earth, up and out of the atmosphere, and on to other planets. The presentation is free and open to the public and is timed with the current NASA-themed art exhibit.

Also, in case you haven’t noticed yet, there is a new FOX morning show that airs live from 7am to 8am, Monday through Friday. Yours truly and Cami Mountain host the show on Fox 55. This has added a little extra work of course, so it cuts into my blog writing time a bit. In combination, the presentations, the snowmelt contest, and the new show have taken up a lot of time lately. I hope continue providing quality blog content on a more regular basis again in the near future.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

You’ve probably heard that upgrades to dual polarization has finished in various National Weather Service Doppler Radars in our region including La Crosse and Green Bay.  Marquette’s is currently getting worked on and Duluth’s upgrade will start next week.

The La Crosse Dual Polarization Radar already had a nice workout with some of the storms that moved through this past weekend.  The meteorologists there had a good look at a hail producing storms using their new capabilities.  It allowed them to be more certain of the location of the hail and size of it as well.  Below is an image of some of the things they were looking at with a storm that passed through northeast Iowa.  Please visit the following link from the National Weather Service for a more in depth look at how they utilized it.  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=arx&storyid=82763&source=0

CPC Model Projection

The stronger the El Nino, the warmer our Winter could be. Right now it looks like a weak El Nino will form at best, but it is early in the year, so there could be some notable changes yet before Fall arrives.

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And now a little follow-up on a subject that was much more prevalent last year but many people seem to have forgot about. As has been mentioned in many outlets outside of the mainstream media, the Fukushima nuclear disaster is not over and it is worse than thought. Spent fuel pools (as well as other parts of the reactor) are a grave danger to the U.S. according to at least one Senator who visited the site.

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In another follow-up, I sometimes bring a bevy of news and research that shows things are not as bad as originally portrayed, either for the present or into the future. Last year I blogged about how the trash in the Pacific is not as bad as originally reported. Now this year we have a finding that declares the trash in the ocean could be significant, just not in the way we might have thought in the past. A oceanographer researching in the Pacific found a lot of small particles of plastic a bit below the surface. These types of particles would normally float on the surface and be visible but wave and wind action drives them a few feet below the surface. Past surveys of ocean garbage generally only skimmed the surface water. Smaller particles could more easily find their way into the food chain and cause some disruptions. What is not know is whether these particles are all over the ocean. Maybe they are only in certain areas near manufacturing centers or shipping lanes, such as southeast Asia.

Also, in the not-as-bad-as-originally-proclaimed theme, during the past couple decades the AGW discussion has been peppered with proclamations about “increased storminess”, “more hurricanes”, “more floods”, even more tornadoes. In the case of tornadoes, every time there is a big outbreak, someone usually speculates as to whether the seemingly increasing number of tornadoes is due to AGW. In another, maybe it is not as bad as originally portrayed, the case for tornadoes is not clear cut. There are many factors in the atmosphere that have to be “just right” and these factors might not all come together to produce more tornadoes in the future even if we end up with some theoretical ranges in warming from AGW.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

After 22 months of testing, NOAA started using a sophisticated new short term weather forecast model.  The Rapid Refresh Model (RAP) for short, will improve predictions of quickly developing severe weather situations such as thunderstorms, winter storms, and aviation hazards like turbulence.  It replaces an older model called Rapid Update Cycle (RUC).

RAP was developed by NOAA’s Earth System Research Lab in Boulder, CO and the National Centers for Environmental Predicton in Camp Springs, MD.  It updates every hour producing a fresh forecasting extending 18 hours over most of North America.  The U.S. is the only country in the world to routinely update a weather forecast model every 1 hour with the latest observations from ground and satellite based sensors, along with radar, ships, and aircraft.

Forecast skill has improved using the RAP model for most variables including wind and precipitation.  For example the RAP did a better job of showing where a large area of extreme rainfall would occur last June over the middle of the country.  Aviation interests in Alaska are seeing improvement to flying safety using this model.  This is especially important to that state because there are numerous sections of Alaska only accessible by airplane.

You can learn more about the RAP model and other forecasting issues from the following link.  http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120501_rapmodel.html

One of the most interesting events of the month of April was an extreme temperature drop on the 16th. On the 15th the high temperature was 75. At the beginning of the day (midnight) on the 16th, the temperature was still 65. By the end of the day the temperature had dropped to 32 and we had light snow. Most of the temperature drop – about 25 degrees happened over a span of just a few hours during the morning.

The most interesting trend in the numbers of an uneventful month was the low temperature from the 10th to the 12th. For three days in a row, Wausau had a low temp of 29 degrees. One other night (the 17th) there was a low of 29 for a total of 4 nights in April (in Wausau) with a low of 29.

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And a little follow-up on the current economic woes the solar industry is currently feeling. It seems it is not only U.S. and European solar panel producers feeling the pinch. LDK solar in China has laid off nearly 10,000 workers since last July. No matter where the contraction is occurring, it is not a great sign for the industry. However, the over supply of panels right now is leading to very low historical prices for solar panels, so now might be one of the best times for consumers to jump in.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.