A Big Snow Pile on Rib Mountain

Hi everyone! I just got back from Rib Mountain with a couple of pictures of the snow that is remaining. We are down to just a couple of big piles of snow. I have included a picture of the biggest one in this post. Based upon my experience, a pile this big, with normal June weather, will take about 2 weeks to melt. If the weather stays cool, we could be talking about a record late snowmelt date for the contest. For reference, the latest the snow has ever melted off Rib Mountain (during the contest) is June 24th.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Snowmelt 2013

The late start to spring plus the frequent and sometimes heavy rainfall of the past several weeks have made spring tillage and planting difficult for many farmers across Wisconsin.   It has just been too wet and muddy in many fields, especially those with heavier soil.  According to the USDA’s National Agriculture Statistics Service as of June 2nd, 74% of the state’s corn crop is planted.  That compares to 100% planted by this date last year and the five year average of 94%.  Some farmers are electing to try to plant a different crop at this point that doesn’t need as long of a season as corn to mature, such as soybeans.   About 43% of the soybean crop has been planted so far.  That compares to 90% last year and the five year average of 80%.  Oats is doing somewhat better with 91% planted as of June 2nd.  Last year 100% was in, while the five year average is 99%.

About 7% of the first cutting of hay crop has been taken off.  Last year 77% had been harvested already, while the five year average is 38%.  On the good side, pastures are overall doing pretty good.  Of the observers checking in, only 1% rated topsoil moisture as short compared to 20% last year.  About 64% say the moisture is adequate, while 35% have a surplus of topsoil moisture.  Last year at this time only 4% has a surplus.

Growing degree days for the season so far are generally running about 2o to 50 below normal.  Most of that deficit came from April, since May was actually slightly warmer than normal.    Good luck to all the struggling farmers out there.  I hope things come around for you and that favorable weather patterns eventually settle in to to allow whatever crops you do have planted to really take off.  Actually this goes for gardeners too.  I know some that haven’t been able to plant yet as well.

Posted under Ag Weather, Gardening, Spring

May was sort of a weird month around Wisconsin in 2013.  We had alternating spells of cold and warm that really had a bite to them.  If your recall very heavy snow hit west and parts of northern Wisconsin on the 2nd of May.  Around 12 to 18″ fell from near Ellsworth up through Rice Lake, Hayward, Ashland, and Hurley.  Then just a few days later high temperatures were in the 70s across much of the state.  The warmth lasted through the 8th, then a few chilly days hit.  That was followed by a couple of more alternating summer-like to cool spring-like spells.

When all was said and done, temperatures averaged slightly above normal.  For the Wausau area the average high was 67.8 degrees or 0.8 degrees above normal.  The average low temperature was 45.5 degrees or 1.3 degrees above normal.    With reached the 80s on five days, with the coldest low temperature coming in at 28.  That was on May 13th.  Rainfall for the month in Wausau was 4.75″ which is 1.27″ above normal.  Some portions of the TV-9 viewing area received over 6.0″ of rain for the month.  It was certainly soggy at times.  This made it difficult for getting spring sports played and for farmers to get their crops planted in a timely fashion.  Meanwhile the extra moisture has been great for filling up lakes and rivers, along with recharging ground water levels.

There wasn’t very much severe thunderstorm or tornado activity across Wisconsin in May, although things picked up a bit the last few days of the month.

Posted under Monthly Recap, Spring

Parts of Iowa have been drenched with 6 to 10″ of rain in the past few days and the flooding is quite extensive.  Flood watches and warnings are in effect from parts of North Dakota southeast to parts of Illinois and Missouri.  The bad news is that a stormy pattern will continue in the middle of the nation through Saturday.  A strong and slow moving low pressure system in the Rockies and Plains will have a strong southerly flow ahead of it. This will transport ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward.  As this interacts with first a warm front in the region, then a cold front toward the weekend, periods of locally heavy rain and storms will result.

The National Weather Service is projecting additional seven day rainfall totals through next Monday June 3rd to reach as much as six inches in some of the already flooded areas of Iowa.  About 3 to 4″ may fall in the Dakotas and into southern Wisconsin, Illinois and areas east to New York.  Central and northern Wisconsin may get off the hook a bit easier, but still 1 to 2″ may come down.  While the rain will come in spurts intertwined with hours of sun it is still going to be  a soggy mess in many areas.  Please keep this in mind especially if you will be out and about traveling to some of the harder hit areas.

Posted under Ag Weather, Flooding, forecast, Weather NEws

It’s hard to believe May only has a week left!  Where did the time go?  We have had some spurts of warm weather and bouts of wet weather in May.  Will this continue into June?  It’s a month of graduation parties, camping, weddings, and harvesting some of the early season crops like strawberries and spinach.  This year, farmers will be trying to finish up planting crops in the early part of the month because the slow spring has them behind a few weeks.  Of course it will be the month of harvest for the first crop of hay for many farmers as well.  Often that occurs in May, but again everything is a bit behind with the cold pattern we had earlier this spring.   And don’t forget, the grass on your lawns often grows faster in early June then any other time of the year.  So there will be plenty of lawn mowing to do as well.  So a lot is riding on June weather.

The Climate Prediction Center is predicting temperatures to average out above normal over the western half of the nation with the greatest odds of being above normal in the southern Rockies to west Texas.  They forecast equal chances of above, normal, or below normal temperatures for the rest of the nation including Wisconsin.   Around here, normal June temperatures would be highs in the 70s to low 80s with lows in the 50s to near 60.

The CPC is projecting drier than normal conditions in much of the western U.S. down into the Southern Plains and Texas.  Meanwhile, again there are equal chances of being wet, normal, or dry from the Northern Plains through Wisconsin into the eastern part of the country.  We typically get about 4.0″ of rain in June across Wisconsin.

It will be interesting to see how it all turns out.  One way or another it will feel like summer.  I’m sure most people will find a way to appreciate and enjoy it.

Posted under CPC Outlook

Many blog readers know that I promote conservation and alternative energy in order to reduce pollution and other negative effects on the environment. Throughout the decades of covering this theme, I discovered that many policies pursued for economic growth are diametrically opposed to the goal of limiting our impact on the environment. Take a look at “Housing Starts Are Negative“, “Housing Starts are Positive?”,  or “FED says-build more houses” for more discussion of the topic.

This topic came up in some housing data released recently. Make sure you are sitting down before continuing on. The supposed “good” economic news in this report is that in Las Vegas, housing building permits are up 57% since last year. Set aside the “building-for-growth’s-sake” detriment for a minute and focus on a couple other items from Las Vegas. According to a University Of Nevada Las Vegas study, the city currently has over 40,000 vacant homes! Even more amazing is that lower and middle income people cannot find houses to buy. Why? Many financial analysts say large investment groups/banks/hedge funds are busy buying up property and building new property using cheap money coming from central banks around the world. See here. This has put upward pressure on homes prices and locked many of modest income out of the market.

So rich investors are buying (and building) to rent even though there is still an ENORMOUS glut of houses on the market in the U.S. Does this strike anyone as environmentally unsound? Does the country really need more sprawl when it already has millions of empty homes and strip malls littering the landscape? Some people are speculating that these investor groups hoping to rent property (a wealth preservation strategy) are going to have a tough go of it because rents will probably fall with so much property available. Renters have thousands of choices, even in small cities. They can pick and choose, and with falling real incomes in the U.S. they are going to be choosing value-priced housing. Which has more than a few people wondering:

Is the country headed for another housing bubble and crash?

If the new housing “investors” (including some banks and some federal agencies) lose money AGAIN, will they need a bail out with taxpayer money AGAIN?!!

Shouldn’t we learn from our past mistake(s) and try to build more sustainable infrastructure (including hardening such infrastructure against severe weather). Here is a recent article that is obvious on its face, suburbs should be combining housing, shopping areas, and public/government buildings together in order to save space and save energy. Building smarter instead og just building for “growth” seem like a good idea. What do you think?

Which brings me back to the thoughts detailed in “Housing Starts Are Negative” and related to some futuristic themes I detailed in “The Faster Changing Future” and “Information as Cheap Commodity“. The world is changing. The population growth rate is declining. Automation is really starting to affect large traditional job markets for humans. Knowing these things, we should be changing our economic way of thinking. Societies should probably focus a bit more on the people that are already here instead of looking to population growth, building more ”houses and roads”, and “consuming” large quantities of stuff as a way out of the morass. Maybe a little population decline would be a good thing. Our economic models would go bust, but the environment would be a lot better off. Maybe people would be better off as well. Maybe the world is crowded enough.

Have a pleasant Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Environment

Just a quick post this morning about the tornado devastation in Oklahoma. It reminds me of the discussion of SuperStorm Sandy. Check out this past post about SuperStorm risks, and this one about hardening infrastructure against violent storms. The cities in Oklahoma that were struck by the tornado could have used buried power lines. Stronger houses or more underground storm shelters would be beneficial. Maybe it is time to start considering underground shelters or large “storm rooms” for big public buildings like schools, factories, and churches. These are all great ideas, of course, but they all cost money. It is much cheaper to live in a trailer home even though the risk of dying in a severe weather event – in tornado alley no less – is much much greater. I am happy to see WPS is at least testing buried power cables in the Northwoods. I hope the test proves some benefit for buried cables, as then “downed” power lines would be one less thing to worry about in a severe weather situation.

UPDATE: Over the weekend I warned people about an upcoming threat of frost. At that point, it looked as if the highest threat of frost would be Saturday and Sunday morning. Now the main threat has shifted to Friday morning with only a minor threat of frost well to the northeast of Marathon county on Saturday morning. On Friday morning it is looking more likely that there will be a light frost across rural and low-lying areas of central Wisconsin. I am now forecasting a low of 35 even in the city. The Northwoods will have the highest chance of frost with some spots possibly seeing low temps in the upper 20s. I have NOT yet planted my peppers, melons, or tomatoes in the ground in my country garden and I will hold off on potting some tomatoes as well, until after Friday. I already have six frost sensitive plants in pots that I will have to (maybe) cover or move indoors Thursday night. I don’t need anymore to worry about. Hopefully this will be the last significant frost threat of the season. I plan on putting more plants in the ground this weekend.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Freeze, Gardening, Seasonal Items, Storms, Tornadoes

With tornado and severe weather season ramping up into high gear lately, it is a good time to review safety rules.  You probably have the safety tips for humans stuck in your head pretty well by now.  But how about for your pets?  What types of things do you need to have in place to keep them as safe as possible when a bad storm hits?  How about for caring for them in the aftermath?  The Humane Society of the U.S. has put together a comprehensive plan for pet owners.  You should definitely take a good look at this as there is much to learn on how to keep you precious animal friends cared for.  You will find it printed below.

• Put a collar with visible identification on your pets, including indoor-only pets.
• Keep pictures of your pets on hand for identification purposes. Ideally, you should also be in the photo.
• Create a pet emergency kit (see below). Items should be refreshed every few months.
• Talk to your neighbors about how they can help your pets if you are not at home if disaster strikes.
• Create a list of hotels that allow pets. Know where you can take your horses: Make arrangements with a friend or another horse owner to stable your horses if needed.

• Three-or-more-day supply of food in airtight, waterproof container, and drinking water.
• Bowls for food and water.
• Current photos and physical description of your pets, including details on markings.
• Medications, vaccination records and pet first aid supplies.
• Comfort items such as a toy and blanket.
• Small garbage bags.
• For dogs include: leash, harness and a sturdy carrier large enough to use as a sleeping area.
• For cats include: litter and litter box and a sturdy carrier large enough for transport.
• For horses include: Coggins tests, veterinary papers, identification photographs and vital information such as medical history and emergency phone numbers.

Posted under Education, Severe Weather, Storms, Tornadoes

This post is for all the gardeners and farmers out there who are at the cusp of planting frost-sensitive plants such as corn, tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, melons, etc… A good rule of thumb is to wait until after Memorial Day weekend. If there is frost after that point, there is nothing you can do except cover your plants. You can’t plant later into June, waiting for that last threat of frost to pass (which happens some years) because the growing season is not long enough around these parts.

So what does it look like this year? It looks like there will be a threat of frost this upcoming weekend – Memorial Day weekend. Particularly on Saturday and Sunday morning. How much of a threat? It looks like frost is highly likely in some of the traditional cold spots, such as low lying areas in the northwoods (Eagle River, Land O’ Lakes, Jennings, Parts of Lincoln county, etc.) If you live in these areas and follow the weather, you know if this means your garden.

For central Wisconsin, at this time, it looks like a moderate threat of frost in low lying areas – places like Ringle in Marathon county, or the Stevens Point airport area. In the city or more urban areas, I am not too worried about the threat of frost. Low temps will probably stay in the upper 30s in these areas. I have planted some basil in pots and I plan to plant some tomatoes in pots this week (in the city), because I feel the threat of frost is quite low (in the city). I have planted some pepper and chard SEEDS in my country garden, but I HAVE NOT put pepper, melon, or tomato PLANTS in my country garden yet. I am holding off to see whether the threat of frost (for Memorial Day weekend) will materialize or become more significant. I hope this helps in your garden and planting planning for the next week or so!

(Supplemental info: cranberry farmers – it goes without saying, get ready for frost)

Posted under forecast, Freeze, Seasonal Items, Spring

I’m sure you’ve heard a phrase like, that was a 100 year downpour, or a 50 year flood that we just had.  It’s important to know how frequently any one area can expect such rain events because it allows planning of infrastructure, buildings, roads, sewers, and so on to handle it.  The last time these numbers were updated was 1963, (yes 50 years ago).  It’s about time I would say.  Below is a brief article about this topic from the National Weather Service Green Bay website.  There is a link within it to take you directly to the new chart of rainfall frequency in Wisconsin.  For example in Wausau, the frequency of getting 1.30″ of rain in a 10-minute span is once every 100 years.   The frequency of getting 4.5″ of rain in Wausau in a 24-hour span is once every 25 years.   This is very interesting stuff.  Check it out.

Interests in private industry, government and academia have eagerly awaited the publication of new precipitation frequency estimates for Wisconsin as well as sixteen other Midwestern and southeastern states. Those estimates were recently published by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development as Volumes 8 and 9 of NOAA Atlas 14, a web-based publication available at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc
The Wisconsin precipitation frequency estimates are available directly at:
http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=wi
The last time that these estimates were updated was in 1963.

Precipitation frequency estimates are estimates of climate variability. They are used as design standards for civil infrastructure built to cope with rainfall and runoff such as storm water drainage systems, roads, bridges, culverts, small dams, roofs, airport runways, stream erosion control, pollution control systems, flood insurance rate maps, and soil conservation, just to name a few. These new estimates directly contribute to the preparation of more cost-effective designs, plans and maps for protecting life and property and preventing pollution.

NWS precipitation frequency estimates–prepared since the 1950s–are cited as design standards in many Federal, State and Local Government regulations. These new NOAA Atlas 14 volumes will result in new design criteria for a large range of engineering and planning projects.

Posted under Education, Flooding, Natural Disasters