Well, the much talked about solar flare turned out to be a bust. We were lucky enough to have clearing skies after midnight last night but I did not see any northern lights. I even turned our skycam to the north and recorded the sky but to no avail. It there were some faint northern lights, I probably would not have been able to see them anyway because the full moon was out. I mentioned a couple of different times for people to not get their hopes up too high and I am glad I did. The space weather forecasting biz is in its infancy. The energy from a solar eruption/flare streaming toward the earth morphs and changes before it reaches us so even some of the biggest flares that seem to be pointed right at the earth end up fizzling out or only delivering a glancing blow.

Something that I would really like to see fizzle out is the clock change this weekend. Yes, you guessed it, Daylight Saving Time (DST) is this weekend, although it doesn’t “save” anything. In fact, every year, we find out more bad things about this dumb archaic practice. Check some of my past blog posts about the subject here and here. This year, research shows that heart attacks increase by 10% after the clock change and it leads to less productivity at work. So now, other than being a pain in the you-know-what, causing us to waste a lot more energy, creating more traffic accidents, and increasing depression, it ruins productivity and kills people (heart attacks). What more do we need to know before ending the madness. About the only remaining reason to move the clocks forward in the Spring is so that more people can enjoy more daylight after a typical work-day during the Summer. I get up in the morning to enjoy the outdoors in the Summer so I would rather not change the clocks. Other countries around the world are dropping DST because it is dumb. When will the U.S. drop it? I don’t know. 

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When discussing alternative energy and a more efficient energy future, most people focus on the big things like transportation and manufacturing, but where energy usage is growing the fastest is in computing. Data centers that hold all of our online information are huge energy “hogs”, and growth in the industry is likely to continue. It is good to know, then, that even in the smallest of places, energy efficiency is increasing.

The electronic chips that power our computers and gadgets are not only getting more efficient but are starting to use light instead of electrons for many of the computational and data transmission tasks. Light signals use a lot less energy and create a lot less heat. The key invention that will help continue this trend is miniature lasers. APIC corporation recently announced a germanium based laser that could fit well into the conventional silicon computer chip manufacturing process, Altera is using fiber optics instead of copper interconnects to transmit information between chips, and IBM has recently created the most efficient terabit per second optical transceiver. The computer servers sitting in huge data centers are getting smaller and more efficient as well. Just think of how much more efficient the computing centers will be once they are running on light instead of electricity.

The New Apple Data Center

Producing energy for the data centers has been a big concern but we have seen some progress in this arena as well. Many big computer and Internet companies are turning toward alternative energy and even locating their data centers near alternative sources like hydroelectric dams. In Apple’s case, they are planning to build a big solar array at their new North Carolina data center. I am not a big fan of Apple products (even though I know they are good) because I can’t tinker with them, but I will give the company kudos for planning some solar power for their data center. Now we just need to convince them to spend more than a little spec of their $100 billion cash hoard on alternative energy.

So if you hear depressing news stories about how we are wasting energy and burning fossil fuels like there is no tomorrow and that we are destroying that “tomorrow”, just remember that progress continues.

Have a pleasant weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Space, Technology

During the course of analyzing the future of air pollution, technology, and alternative energy I often highlight some of the companies that are creating the future. Some are hits and some are misses. Successful or not, I like to follow-up on the latest developments. One trend as of late is that the biggest “misses” are the government supported start-up companies. Most people are aware of the Solyndra scandal and the half billion tax-payer loan that went down the drain, now Ener1 has also filed for bankruptcy (after receiving a 118 million dollar “stimulus” grant). Ener1 was in the business of making batteries for electric cars. I mentioned this company in the weather blog back in 2008. At the time company leaders were hoping to cut the cost of lithium-ion batteries in half. The cost of lithium-ion batteries has come down quite a bit in the last 4 years but apparently it did not help out Ener1. All is not lost though, a Russian billionaire is investing some money in the bankrupt company to see if it can be revived. Here is a more in depth financial look at Ener1 and other U.S based battery companies, some political analysis from Reason, and a more sarcastic take on government support of business in general. I understand the stated reasons and justifications behind using tax-payer money to speculate in new industries, but nothing can replace the free market’s pressure to produce winners. Government grants are “free” money for those who receive them. When a business is started with private capital in the free market, there is more pressure to succeed. If you don’t succeed, you lose “your” money, your friend’s money, or your investor’s money.  That is a big deal. People and companies with their own money on the line typically work smarter and harder to succeed.

MIT-designed CityCar

From a miss (Ener1) to a potential hit on another future trend – electric vehicles. So many future designs and EV dreams have passed before my eyes and the pages of this blog  in the past few years that you might be swayed into believing that everyone is driving one by now. While that is not the case, some cars have made it onto the market including one that I didn’t think would succeed, or at least not make it from concept to commercial product. It is the MIT-designed “CityCar” (not to be confused with the T.27 city car). A commercial version was recently unveiled in Europe. Now we will see if there is a market for this tiny electric car that “folds up” to fit into tight parking spaces. Basically, if you like the Smart Car and think it is cute, then you will probably love the CityCar. I would buy one and drive it around town (keeping a gas car for longer drives on the freeway). The only barrier will likely be price. A couple years ago I was amazed at how expensive the Smart Four 2 was for being so small and only getting 40 mpg. Most electrics are rather pricey and this story announcing its availability does not give a price.

And since we are on the topic of businesses and products succeeding or failing, I might as well mention the iconic American company Kodak. They recently filed for bankruptcy. After reorganization they are planning to dip their toes into thin film solar panel production. Some people think that their old photographic film business could be transformed into solar panel production. I suppose it is a possibility but the solar market is already ultra-competitive. There has been a lot of commentary about Kodak’s demise because it used to be a giant among U.S. companies. A lot of people blame the management for not seeing the future of digital photography, but that wasn’t the main problem. In fact, Kodak invented digital photography and manufactured good digital cameras. The main problem was that the film business was so much larger and more profitable. Even if Kodak aggressively pursued digital photography and digital cameras and completely dominated the market, they still would have had to shed most of their workforce and their stock price would still be a tiny fraction of what it was during the 1970s and 1980s. The digital picture business is vary low margin compared to film. There just was not a lot of money to be made there – not enough to support a company the size of Kodak.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

Last week I mentioned how auto shows are a great place to see cool new futuristic vehicle designs and/or new technologies for autos, but not great for seeing much that is ready for the market. Electric vehicles and hybrids have been making a splash at shows in recent years but I still don’t notice too many in showrooms around the area. As seems typical for many industries there was some “over promise and under deliver” going on.

Therefore, it is nice to highlight some of the successes – some of the cars that were promised and have actually arrived. I have mentioned Tesla quite often and the Nissan leaf. Now we have another “promise” fulfilled with the arrival of the Fisker Karma. It is a hybrid sedan revealed at CES and it is hot.

The Fisker Karma Hybrid

The price might scorch your pocketbook as well. It retails for $100,000. As a sign of progress for electric vehicles, this one has a stated electric range of 300 miles per charge and a gas extended range of 500 miles. One of the main complaints of early electric (and hybrid) vehicles was that of short range. Getting 300 miles per charge is pretty amazing. One tank of gas only gets me about 310 to 330 miles in my Kia. The Karma could take me nearly the same distance with one charge of the battery.

Perhaps this is a sign of a tipping point for the electrification of our transportation infrastructure. For years, everyone said “just wait until we develop better batteries” then electric cars will make more sense. Finally, considering the Karma and Tesla models, EVs make more sense (the next step is to make more “dollars and cents” with cheaper models). The great news is that battery technology continues to slowly improve so the range should get better in years to come.

One of the limiting factors for many alternative energy applications is also battery technology. In order to store the energy from intermittent alternative sources such as wind, wave, or solar power, it would be nice to have large cheap battery arrays that were able to re-charge thousands of times. EOS Energy Storage thinks it has the battery to fit the bill. It has made a breakthrough in zinc air battery technology.

lead acid battery

They claim their batteries could be used to supply electricity to the grid for about half the cost of running peak-load natural gas plants – which is quite a bold claim considering how cheap natural gas is. Another company – Axion - is making waves with an older style battery technology. It has modified the traditional lead-acid battery to make a lead-carbon battery. Their batteries are lighter, can charge faster, and are fully recyclable. No word on the cost but they do have a customer (SilTek) to test out the power storage and management aspects of their lead-carbon batteries. The most speculative of new battery technology comes recently from Stanford. They have created a new type of cathode (one half of a typical battery) that can theoretically last 40,000 charge cycles, using cheaper metals such as iron and copper. Now they just have to design a complimentary anode for the battery.

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Now a follow-up on yesterday’s blog post about Doomsday threats we face. My main theme was that AGW was near the bottom of the list of existential threats. There are many more threats, both natural and man-made, that are more serious in the near term. Now Wired has come out with a nice picture gallery of the possible ways the earth (and nearly all the life upon it) could meet it’s fate. None of them are AGW.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Natural Disasters, Technology

When it comes to attaining a near-term clean energy future, regular readers know that I favor solar power because it has the most upside. One of the surprising downsides to solar power is that land area that it takes up. If you have ever seen the large desert solar installations, you know that it is NOT a trivial amount of land that is covered to produce a profitable stream of electricity. The obvious way to install more solar panels without covering more land, is to use real estate that is already covered – with houses. As I mentioned recently, the main barrier to more people putting solar panels on their roofs is the installation costs. The actual cost of panels has come down a lot in recent years. It appears there is a new huge market for entrepreneurs who can figure out a way to more cheaply install solar panels.

If solar panels are not your thing or out of your price range, there are a few other things that have been suggested you can do with your roof in order to help live cleaner and more efficiently. One of those is to change the color of your roof. It would make sense if roofs in cold climates were darker and absorbed more of the sun’s heat and roofs in hot climates were lighter in order to reflect away more of the sun’s energy. Energy Secretary Chu even suggested this could be implemented as a national plan in order to save energy in the U.S. A lot of people laughed at the plan in the beginning but Chu was drawing upon research for this proposal. At least one computer model indicated white roofs could reduce the urban heat island effect. Lately, people have become more skeptical, finding that the urban heat island effect does not contribute much to anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and thus instituting white roofs in hotter climates would not help much. My opinion is that even if the urban heat island effect is small, it still pays to go with more white roofs, because even a small reduction in city heat would be beneficial, and painting roofs is cheap. Even better would be roof shingles that change from light to dark depending on the temperature, which are in development from a couple of companies, as I have blogged about previously.

In the city it has often been suggested that another good use for roof tops would be for gardens. If you have ever looked out from the top of a tall building, you know there is a lot of unused space on top of box stores, strip malls, apartment buildings, skyscrapers, etc… I have covered this topic before in conjunction with vertical (city) farming and highlighted the JPL building in California for winning a “green” award for rooftop plants. The theory is that plants on top of a building would help to cool it because they provide shade and evaporate moisture. If used as a garden area, it could reduce energy usage by growing food where people need it, like Gotham Greens in New York. The problem is that not all roofs are suitable for intensive gardening and some climates might not support a “green” roof. A recent roof top experiment in Texas found that it was too hot for plants to grow on top of city buildings.

Overall, there are a lot of different things we could be doing in order to make use of all that empty space on top of the hundreds of millions of domiciles around the world. The choice for the future of my roof will likely be solar panels, although the shingles are getting old – maybe just in time to get the color-changing versions.

Have a fine Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change

Last week I used most of my blog entries to recap the top events of 2011 and present the year-end statistics. Almost lost in the conversation were the month-end statistics for December. Fear not faithful blog readers. I did not forget about December which ended up being the most above normal month of the year (with respect to temperature). In fact, it was December that put us a shade above normal for the year. If December temperatures would have ended up around normal then we would have been a shade below normal for the year. So the biggest news coming out of December was the warmth and because of the warmth, much of the area did not have a White Christmas. In Wausau it was just barely a White Christmas. Even though it was quite warm, we did not break any daily high temperature records. No other daily records were set either. We usually have a couple of below zero temps during December, but not this year (in Wausau). The oddest trend in the numbers was a three day stretch (12th-14th) where each day the low temperature was 33. Otherwise, the most common high temperature of the month was 36, which we hit on 4 different occasions. Here are the final stats:

Average High: 31.6  (normal: 26.5)

Average Low: 18.3  (normal 11.4)

Total Precipitation: 1.52 inches  (normal 1.36″)

Total Snowfall: 8.6 inches  (normal 13.9″)

Highest Temperature: 45 on the 26th

Lowest Temperature: 1 on the 10th.

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I am going to start out the new year of blogging by continuing some of the science and weather themes that I have developed and followed for several years now.

One big story that I have followed for almost a decade is the Peak Oil theory. I even interviewed Dr. Hirsch about the subject in case you wanted to review. Another year has passed and there is still no huge crash in fossil fuel supplies. It is hard to argue with Peak Oil theory because it is based on pretty solid science of geology and knowledge of extraction technology. Still, we are now more than a decade passed the time when the Hubbert originally predicted a crash in oil production. It hasn’t happened yet, despite the dire predictions happening year after year. I don’t see a huge crash coming this year either. I suspect there will be some supply shocks due to some oil fields getting more dry and socio-economic forces conspiring against the free flow of oil from different parts of the world. The price will probably stay high even though we are still in the great recession. I just don’t see a huge crash because more cheap natural gas keeps coming online and more alternative energy production continues to be installed. Even flying wind turbines are now on the table! These aren’t going to be a huge part of our energy supply by any means, but a sign that new innovative things continue to be developed.

 Also, The “fossil” theory of fossil fuel formation might not be the only game in town. More and more people are investigating the abiogenisis theory and carbon cycle of the earth.  This might point to a more ample future supply of oil and gas.

Whether you believe there is going to be a huge crash in oil supplies or not, one of my blog themes that I think will continue into the new year is how urban sprawl is unsustainable. I hate to use such a cliche term such as “sustainability” but the American urban landscape is not in the greatest of shape and the effort to continue building expensive new far flung infrastructure is unlikely to end well. We just don’t have the money or resources to keep paving over more land in order to build more strip malls and sub-divisions. I highlighted the ponzi-scheme nature of urban sprawl a while back and just recently a ran across a story about how the nation’s sewage systems are also falling apart. More and more sewage overflow is ending up in lakes, rivers, and eventually on beaches. The problem - local governments do not have the money to upgrade old sewer systems. The sewage systems are so big and sprawling that the upgrades would completely swamp most budgets. So it seems the U.S. might start looking and smelling more like a third world country in the near future.

One possible method for countering the unsustainable drive to build upon and pave over the natural landscape that I brought up last year and will touch upon periodically in 2012 is using different metrics to measure economic “growth”. One metric that might make sense is happiness. Who cares if a new strip mall or box store is built, if you are not happy. As long as happiness is increasing, that should be a sign of positive “growth” for the country. The trouble is, how would one measure happiness? Some scientists are using twitter and unfortunately they seem to have found that happiness went down in 2011.

Have a happier new year! Focus on the things that matter.

Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Monthly Recap, Peak Oil, Pollution

Just to tie up yesterday’s blog entry about how the solar industry has hit some tough times, here is another good review about the year (2011)  in energy – the positive and the negative. The most significant nugget from the article I gleaned was that solar panel prices have decreased by 50% in the past year. I have read a couple of articles indicating that the current major limiting cost component preventing more people from buying solar panels for their house is installation cost. It can cost many thousands of dollars to get a couple panels mounted on your roof. I would suggest that there is a good new opportunity for entrepreneurs out there to install solar panels on residential housing. The panels are cheap enough for more people to buy them. Now someone needs to figure out a cheaper way to install them.

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Since the last day of the year is coming up on Saturday, I have to start counting down the top ten Northcentral Wisconsin weather events of 2011 – today. Later this week I will also post the official stats of 2011, along with notable records. Even though we had a cool start to the year, we might end up above normal because the last three months have been quite mild (above normal).

First in the list of Top Ten Weather Events of 2011 is the honorable mention category. The weather team came up with 14 significant weather events of the year which means 4 of them did not quite make the cut. Here are those 4 in no particular order of importance:

Honorable Mention #1: High humidity during the Summer. This is one that Tony suggested and I had forgotten about, probably because I am young enough and the humidity does not bother me too much. We had several days when dewpoints were in the 70s and a couple where they touched the low 80s, which is getting close to record territory. Although I don’t have official data available right now, from memory I would say that 2 or 3 decades ago, dewpoints in the 70s were quite rare. The most humid days would have dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. over the last few years has become more common for the dewpoints to climb into the 70s for at least a couple days each Summer. I am not too surprised by the increase in humidity because air and ocean temps have warmed up a little over the last couple of decades. Not only does warmer air hold more moisture but warmer oceans evaporate more moisture into the air.

Drift at Tony's House

Honorable Mention #2: Record Snowfall on February 20th. Winter did not seem to want to end earlier this year. We had plenty of cold weather and snowfall but only 2 days with record snowfall early in the year. One record amount happened on April 19th (which in retrospect could have made the list since it was so late in the Spring), and the other occurred on February 20th. The record snowfall was only 8.7 inches but it was only part of the total snow from the storm. Another 4.8 inches fell on the 21st. Roads were bad with significant drifting. A couple February blog posts about the storm.

Honorable Mention #3: Record high temperatures in early June. This one was suggested in the blog comments and I agree that it was significant. After such a long Winter, it seemed like we jumped into a steamy Summer without having much Spring-like weather. We had record high temps of 90 on June 3rd, 94 on June 7th, and 93 on June 8th. It is not too often that we have several record high temps in a short time span. Two in a row is fairly common. Three or more in a row is more notable. June blog entry about the heat.

Honorable mention #4: Record Precipitation on March 22nd. It was a significant snowstorm that brought the record precipitation on this date. We did not break a record for snowfall because it was split between 2 different days – 4.4 inches on the 22nd and 3.6 inches on the 23rd. The record precipitation occurred because the precipitation started as sleet and rain. The total precip. for the day was 0.89 inches. Tony remembers this storm quite well because he ended up getting stuck on his way home from work. It was a blinding snowstorm at times with thundersnow at times. Here is Tony’s blog post from March about the event. Here is Kristen Connolly’s recollection as well.

Stay tuned for numbers 10 through 7 tomorrow.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Top 10 List

I am very positive on alternative energy for the future. Fossil fuels have been a great energy source for humans for centuries, but it is dirty. It does cause a lot of pollution. It would be great to develop cleaner sources of energy. As I have mentioned in the past, I try to follow developments of many different alternative energy sources but I do play favorites. Biofuels are at the bottom of my list, wind power is in the middle, and solar power is near the top. Solar power is near the top not because it is the cheapest but because it has the greatest potential upside (leaving nuclear power out of the equation for the moment).

Solar power had seen quite a resurgence during the early part of this century. The housing bubble in the U.S. also fueled some investment in new solar technology and manufacturing capacity. As we learned recently, it also fueled profligate spending by governments to support the industry. Many of the government supported solar companies in the U.S. have gone bankrupt.

So is the growth in solar power over? Investors sure have punished solar stocks, which could be a hint of the future. Recall this past blog post about the meteoric rise of First Solar (FSLR). I pointed out how good of an investment the company would have been if you had gotten in at the IPO. After rising to over $160 per share a couple years ago, it is now back down in the $30 to 40 range. In fact, I have blogged about most of the new solar companies over the last few years and thankfully a few of them are still going. I can’t vouch for the revenue or profits, but at least their websites are still up, as is the case for Nanosolar (past blog post about Nanosolar). The latest company to make waves (yes there is still some investment in the industry), is Stion. They have a manufacturing plant in Mississippi and is planning on expanding into Korea with a new $130 million investment.

In addition to some companies surviving, if not thriving, research continues to point to a positive future for solar energy. At the University of Texas, researchers have found new ways to capture more electrons in solar panels (another good review of this research at eetimes). If this process can be commercialized, it could cause a big jump in the efficiency of solar panels. Also 3D solar panel designs (a concept I blogged about in the past) from MIT point toward methods to collect more sunlight per unit of surface area. This is a big development because one of the drawbacks to solar panel deployment is that they take up a lot of space.

Now some bad news. According to this article from James Delingpole, the German solar industry has lost 5,000 companies and 20,000 employees in just the last year. Germany was once one of the leading alternative energy economies in the world. With the onset of the recession and increased competition from China, their internal solar economy has collapse to a great degree. When you hear that 5,000 solar “companies” have gone bust, remember that many of these are “support” businesses like solar panel installers which probably include teams of a small handful of people. These are not 5,000 First Solar’s going bankrupt. Still it is sad to see, but as Delingpole points out, it should not be too surprising. The longer an new industry category (like alternative energy) has to live off of the support of government, the higher the odds that it will collapse. I agree with Delingpole in that I don’t think government subsidies are the best way forward. If the green energy companies cannot survive in the market place, then the support should come from private sources. There are plenty of obscenely rich green energy supporters (like Al Gore) who could make a real sacrifice and pony up some millions to at least keep solar companies and installation crawling along until cost competitiveness improves. Some are probably already doing this, but it could be bigger and more publicized. Couple this German solar story with the fact that Germany wants to ban all nuclear power in the next 10 years, and you come to the realization that Germany will go from a green energy leader to a laggard very soon (unless some of the big solar breakthroughs make it to market soon).

This realization might already be showing up in the angst of European environmentalists as they decried the “failure” of the EU carbon trading market recently. There is also trouble for solar brewing between the U.S. and China. Some are speculating that a new full-blown trade war over solar panel manufacturing will break out between the two countries. It is interesting to note that many people in the U.S. accuse China of heavily subsidizing their solar industry when the U.S. has been doing the same thing (with very poor results, Solyndra). Head of the Energy Department Steven Chu says that it is not so much because of subsidies, but because the Chinese solar plants are more technologically advanced and their labor costs are lower. Whatever the reasons, I think a trade war would be stupid because the economies of the world are so inter-linked nowadays. A trade war will only hurt consumers and often times lead to “real” war.

BP Solar Getting Out of the Biz

And finally on the list of negative trends, even big corporate support cannot keep all solar panel manufacturers up and running. BP solar, a stalwart in the industry for decades, is closing up shop.

Even though there is some bad news for the solar industry, at least it is still faring better than biofuel industry – in which some companies have stopped producing actual fuel (because it is a money losing endeavor) and have started making higher value chemical feed-stocks instead.

Overall, because of the pace of technological progress, I am still positive that we will see a stronger solar market in the near future. Panel prices are low now and should and should stay that way for a while. This means more solar capacity will continue to be installed around the world and every increase should lead to a cleaner planet in the future.

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Later this week I will detail my top ten weather events of 2011 and detail the year in review. Given that above normal temps will continue for the rest of this week, we might end up above normal for the year. For those of you hoping for some significant cold and snow to get going out on the ice skating rinks and snowmobile trails, I have one picture to show you. It is the current 6 to 10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. The only colder than normal air is expected to be in far southern Florida and in Alaska.

 Have a fine Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy

In the blog I often discuss the progress of alternative energy, but as regular readers know, I do not value all “green” energy sources as equal. At the top of my list are geo-thermal and solar, wind is in the muddled middle, and biofuels are near the bottom.

Wind turbines are the most cost-efficient but they have significant side effects. Most people, even those who are big promoters of alternative energy, do not want them near their property or community because they spoil the natural view and they create very annoying noise. There is also a limit to how much wind energy we can extract from the atmosphere before we reach diminishing returns, and we are not too far from reaching that scale. Besides affecting the wind energy in the atmosphere, large wind farms also affect the micro-climate around them and these affects will only increase with larger wind farms. Most disturbing is the affect that the wind turbines have on winged wildlife. Besides clobbering birds and bats to death, the wind turbines also cause the lungs and ear drums of winged animals to explode if they get too close.

Wind Farm

One could argue that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is such a grave threat that birds and bats should be sacrificed, however, that would be flawed logic if better options are available.

Biofuels are not the better option. Besides the fact that biofuels are theoretically carbon neutral, and have an EROI barely over 1 (in the best circumstances), they also have significant side effects. First of all, they still generate air pollution because they are a hydrocarbon fuel. Second of all, the indirect effects of producing many biofuels might be worse than AGW itself. Palm oil plantations (to produce biofuel) are expanding at a rapid rate in southeast Asia and destroying the habitat of many animals, some of which are under threat of extinction, like tigers. Some of the deforestation of the Amazon rainforest is for biofuel crops as well (most is for food). Here in the U.S. food (corn) is being used to create ethanol, which is a bad thing considering the high cost of oil and food. Some people predict food demand will double over the next few decades. Even though a doubling is highly doubtful (in my opinion), food demand will go up, so it brings into question why we are spending money (subsidies) to turn food into ethanol and carve up the tropical forests of the world.

One of the more cost-efficient alternatives people could be using is geo-thermal energy. While it is true that installation costs are currently quite high, the maintenance is quite low on these systems and people usually easily recoup their costs for systems installed in individual homes. Scaling up to commercial heating and electrical generation might be more practical in the future by using old oil and gas wells. Some of these could be retro-fitted for geo-thermal applications and the cost would be lower because no new drilling need be done. The best thing about geo-thermal is that is has a low impact on the environment.

One of the other big alternative energy sources is of course solar power. While it is not “great” yet, it keeps getting better and it has the biggest upside. The main environmental downside is the land space that large solar farms take up. If more people install them on their houses then this would not be as much of an issue. The high cost of solar is one aspect that has prevented widespread adoption, but a recent analysis has shown that solar is currently cheaper than most people realize, in many areas of the world, you can install it for around $1 per watt or a little less. So the price of solar is reaching a tipping point, especially as the price of oil remains around $100 per barrel. Oerlikon Solar of Switzerland, has developed a turn-key manufacturing process for thin film solar panels that could reduce the cost to $0.47 per watt when it is commercially available and installed in 2014. This low cost is partially dependent on labor costs (people who will operate the manufacturing line), so China would be one place in the world where the thin films could be made that cheap. Even so, it would also help reduce costs in the developed world as well, as manufacturing becomes more automated.

Another incremental improvement in solar technology comes from North Carolina State University. Researchers there have designed a new dye for dye-sensitized solar cells that is 14% more efficient at absorbing light than previous dyes. Every little advance makes solar power more practical and more affordable for future generations.

Solar panels in use at Google

Sadly, one big company has ceased its investment and research into solar power. Google recently announced that it will focus more on its core competencies. I was excited for Google’s involvement in solar because they are creative and they have a lot of money to spend. Thankfully there are plenty of others also working on improving solar power.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy

A couple weeks ago, I mentioned that Peak Oil theory might be more on the ropes than ever, not only because the world is using more alternative energy each year, but also because other forms of fossil fuel are becoming more accessible and profitable with the current high price of oil. This doesn’t mean that there will not be large price and supply volatility, just that it is increasingly unlikely that we are headed back to the stone age as was predicted so many times. This recent blog post at technology review displays fossil fuel use by major countries of the world through 2050. The Energy Information Administration indicates continual increases in the use of fossil fuels – despite the more difficult job of getting those fuels. The one thing I would quibble with is their statement that 10% of the world’s energy is now from renewable energy and that it will only grow to 15% by 2050.

This is in direct contradiction to the recent REN21 report that claims the world already receives 20% of its energy needs from renewables. The REN21 report includes biofuels – which are kind-of carbon based fuels like fossil fuels, so maybe that is where the contradiction arises. I am not 100% certain how REN21 and the EIA differ in their tabulations.

Even though I am not a big fan of biofuels in general, there is still some progress going on. Biofuels might not be a good replacement for transportation needs but could fill a big role for chemical feedstock. Everything made out of plastic begins as a barrel of oil. Take a look around at your office right now. Almost everything in it, from the computer to the desk to the carpet to the phone, is made from fossil fuel. If biofuels can replace oil for the production of plastics, it will be a win-win for the economy and environment because the production of biofuels could potentially be a bit cheaper certainly much cleaner. A start-up company in the Silicon Valley recently trumpeted a process to create ethylene (a major chemical feedstock) from methane. Seeing that we have so much natural gas here in the U.S. and it is very cheap, this could be a big breakthrough if it can be commercialized.

In the news lately we also have the potential for bacteria to create hydrazine (rocket fuel) from urine and some other folks talking about the beneifts of using biofuels as chemical feedstocks.

On the negative side, a recent European study suggests that the benefits of biofuels are often overstated, that they are not quite as renewable as everyone thinks because the “lifetime costs” are not always easy too define or calculate. In the longer term, for transportation purposes, it still looks like electric vehicles show the most promise.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy

I bring a lot of information to the blog about the positives and negatives revolving around AGW and alternative energy, but I try to accentuate the positives.

Recently you might have read about the Solyndra scandal and the negative outlook for the solar industry, you might have read about Peak Oil (“just around the corner” – like always), or maybe you have seen evidence of a potential world-wide economic collapse. These are certainly things to take note of but you should also keep your eye on all the progress going on in the world. For those of you with an optimistic eye, here are some recent headlines that highlight the acceleration of technological progress.

* A couple years ago I mentioned how the next entrepreneurs to become rich would be those inventing products that would produce clean energy or increase energy efficiency. In particular I mentioned that roof shingles or windows that went from white/clear to dark/opaque would be a great invention. The shingles are becoming a reality and now the windows are nearing reality as well. Korean scientists have created a window that can go from nearly clear to nearly opaque in seconds. If such a window could be made at an economically viable price, it would shave a significant percentage off of heating a cooling costs around the world.

* Another area that invention is sorely needed in is battery technology and we are getting a lot of progress here as well. Researchers at Leeds University in England have created a gel based, flexible, lithium ion battery. They claim it has the same performance as current lithium batteries. The question remains, will it cost the same or less? A cheaper long lasting battery is what is needed to make intermittent alternative energy sources like wind and solar to be successful. Storing energy needs to be cheap and a Pittsburgh company has developed a new easy to manufacture and cheap auqeous battery. Will this be the breakthrough that speeds the adoption of alternative energy? LG Chem, the South Korean company that provides batteries for some commercial EVs for sale in the market today, have developed a lithium ion battery that holds 3 times as much energy and charges faster as well.

* In the solar industry, even though the economy is not helping out much right now, innovation continues at a rapid pace. A collaboration of Universities from around the world recently developed the most efficient (6%) colloidal quantum dot solar cells ever produced. These have the potential to be cheaper because they are much easier to manufacture. Besides creating electricity, work is being done to capture more heat from the sun as well and do useful work with it. Scientists from MIT have designed (simulated) a solar heat system using carbon nanotubes and azobenzene that is potentially 10,000 times more capable of storing energy. Researchers in Illinois have recently developed 3 dimensional photonic crystals that should also help to create more efficient solar panels and LEDs. If solar panels were “blacker” and absorbed all the light that strikes them, they would be more efficient and that is where this recent material developed at Purdue University could come into play.

* Even at the smallest of scales, there is a lot of energy to be saved. Here is one such example that has been saving energy (a trillion watt-hours and counting) since 2003 – slowing down transistors. Engineers at the University of San Diego, implemented a technique to slow down transistors that are not being used in electronic devices in order to stop them from “leaking away” electricity.

* In the realm of “inventions” that are making their mark in the real world, how about zero emission housing? A couple of real functional houses were recently constructed in Chicago to prove it can be done at an affordable price.

* Being a big fan of LED lighting for its positive environmental profile, I was happy to see Taiwan finally got smart and changed all of their traffic signals to LEDs.

These stories and a bunch more that I didn’t have time for, have all popped up in the last few weeks. Yes, even during this great recession, progress continues.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy