An interesting projection of arctic vegetation changes was published recently. As you can imagine, if the arctic continues to warm, more trees will grow. The study expects up to 50% more trees in arctic regions by 2050. This would most likely lead to significant changes for the arctic climate and other areas of the world. One would tend to think that if more trees grow, then more sunlight will be absorbed (as compared to snow-covered tundra) and that this would lead to a positive feedback, leading to more warming. However, nature and the climate are complex and rarely follow a human script.

Could there be some negative consequences from more tree growth in the arctic over the next 4 decades? Yes. Could this lead to continued warming? Yes. Should we try hard to reduce our impact on the envrionment? Yes. However, we know that more warmth and “bad consequences” not a certainty because there was more vegetation, more warmth, and much less ice as little as 1600 years ago. Researchers studying the retreating ice in the Canadian arctic have found plant material under the ice which dates to as little as 1600 years ago. If wildlife, plant life, and the biosphere in general was able to survive much less ice in the arctic as little as 1600 years ago, maybe it will not be the “end of the world” this time around either, as more melting is expected.

Also, the proposed feedback mechanisms might not be as strong as some suspect. One of the commonly repeated themes of the arctic thaw is that “huge” amounts of carbon dioxide are going to be released from the permafrost and accelerate warming across the globe. This theme does have some scientific backing and makes intuitive sense, but nature doesn’t operate by human intuition. A recent paper claims that fungus in the soil around tree roots are what hold the most carbon in arctic regions. So not only would more trees be a carbon sink (as they grow) the fungus in the soil around the roots might sequester more carbon. I cannot say with any certainty how much carbon we are talking about here, or if there would be a significant effect on future theorized warming, but this finding once again challenges the thought that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and positive feedback loops are fait accompli.

Of course, discussing past climate events as a comparison with the current situation is a little like comparing apples to oranges. Well maybe not that much different, more like comparing a Granny Smith apple to a Fuji apple. Humans have changed the atmosphere to a degree so that adds an extra variable to the mix. A lot of AGW theorists expect a lot more carbon dioxide to enter the atmosphere in coming decades – often discussing it as fait accompli. But even here, as I have mentioned in the past, perhaps there is room for less negativity.

Drilling Into Shale For Nat Gas

The U.S. in the last few years is a great example. If you had looked at carbon dioxide emmission projections from 10 years ago, you would find most experts, in fact almost all experts, predicting a steep rise. What happened? Just the opposite. U.S. carbon dioxide emissions sank dramatically after 2007 and are now as low as back in the early 1990s. Can this trend continue? Sure it can, but it will take continued effort and continued use of less carbon intensive fuels like natural gas. Natural gas development and “fracking” have had a lot of negative press lately, but it has been a great bridge fuel. I am glad a few other people are now recognizing the environmental benefits as well.

The idea here is that natural gas can begin a trend of cleaner energy, while development of solar or other alternatives continue to develop. It is a slow process but more solar power is installed every year, solar panels have gotten cheaper, and solar panels continue to get more efficient. The solar industry has come far enough that some claim it is now a net energy producing industry! Here are some of the latest develoments:

In specialized solar cells there have been a couple of news records for efficiency. Swiss researchers have generated a world record 10.7% efficiency with a single junction polycrystalline solar cell. Yale scientists created a record 11% efficiency with carbon-nanotube-film-over-silicon cells. In the lab, materials science continues to produce possible future breakthroughs. The Neils Bohr Institute has shown that nanowires can concentrate sunilght up to 15 times normal intensity. Computer simulations at the University of Vienna have shown that single layer oxides could be used to make more effcient and ultra-thin solar panels in the future. Lastly, Uconn researchers are trying to develop what are called “solar rectennas”. These tiny devices could in theory harvest up to 70% of the incedent solar energy.

Of course, not all breakthroughs in the lab make it to commercial production, or they might not be a commercial success. That is the story with a lot of thin film solar businesses. About 10 years ago, these businesses were “hot” and proposed to make less efficient but cheaper solar panels. Unfortunately, business realities have forced many of them into bankruptcy. Crystalline silicon solar panels have dropped in price so much that thin films are not very cost competitive. The low solar panel prices have also forced one the world’s biggest producers  – Suntech - to go bankrupt. It is a story of over-supply. Subsidies from the Chinese government allowed Suntech to expand production – so much so that a glut developed and prices fell to a point where they couldn’t turn a profit. Some people are a bit concerned that cost pressures will slow down innovation in the industry while companies focus on cutting costs, but finding ways to cut cost and remain profitable is a form of innovation. Where real innovation is needed is in regulations and installation costs. The majority of the cost of going solar is in regulations and installation. The actual solar panels are dirt cheap as compared to a few years back. Cheap panels should be good news for developers of big solar projects and it seems like Brightsource is taking advantage – moving forward with building another plant (a solar thermal plant) in southern California.

Even in the event that alternatives a slow to come online, and theorized warming comes to pass, there is always the possibility of sequestering carbon dioxide or even taking  itout of the air. I have heard some people say it is a nearly impossible task, but some people are working on it. Here are a couple of recent articles on the subject: Scientists explore the miriad ways of removing carbon dioxide from the air. New fuel production process could use carbon dioxide from the air.

Have a fine Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change

I used the term “Sunsational” today for the first time this year. It is a word that I can’t say for sure that I “invented”, but that I first started using almost 15 years ago to describe a perfect day – weatherwise. There were many candidate days earlier in the year but I just couldn’t use the term because we were in the midst of a drought. I couldn’t be happy with the sunshine while knowing nothing much was growing because of the drought. Now that we have picked up some very nice rain amounts in June and the countryside is lush and green – it is time for a sunsational day – today! Tomorrow will be quite nice as well and then it will turn a bit hotter over the weekend. It still looks like the next chance of rain will come late in the day on Sunday – at which point we could receive some heavy rainfall due to some extra moisture in the air from the remnants of hurricane Alex (or at least the tropical moisture brought on land by Alex).

Today didn’t start out all that sunsational because it was quite cool around daybreak. Low temps flirted with record territory in many locations. Here in Wausau the low was 45 which was only 5 degrees above the record of 40 set back in 1943. The low in Merrill and Eagle River was 37. In Antigo the mercury dipped to 39. Tomahawk had a low of 35 and Land O’ Lakes was the coldest at a frosty 32.

AGW News:

I thought this was an interesting article about anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Arctic Climate May Be More Sensitive to Warming Than Thought, Says New Study. Researchers found that Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic was much warmer 2.6 to 5.3 million years ago than it is today, during a time when carbon dioxide levels were higher than today. The island had some trees a likely no permanent ice-cover. This is much different than today, as Ellesmere is covered by tundra and ice/snow. According to the authors of the article, this a reason for alarm because they expect that if carbon dioxide levels continue going up, the Ellesmere will become more like it was a couple million years ago. I have to wonder if there is a big case for alarm here. Whatever warm spell the planet and the arctic went through in the past, it seems life survived (and one could say even thrived). The big problem for life in the arctic was the advent of the ice ages. Another point I can’t help but belabor is a pet-peeve of mine. It is when writers and researchers use the term “irreversible” when talking about AGW. Ellesmere Island was much warmer with higher levels of carbon dioxide a couple million years ago and that situation was most certainly reversible as the island we know today is a harsh tundra environment and frozen over most of the year.

Space News:

Here is a little update on the Mars rover Opportunity. It is now close enough to its next target – the Endeavor crater – to get a higher resolution image. Check it out here. It is nothing too exciting yet but it should be interesting if Opportunity makes it all the way because clay has been detected in the new crater. Opportunity could end up performing the first up-close analysis of clay deposits (created by water) on Mars.

No word yet on whether JAXA’s Hayabusa picked up any material from the asteroid it visited, but JAXA is applying to be enteredinto the Guinness Book of World Records. They want Hayabusa to be recognized for being the first spacecraft to land on and return from a celestial body other than the moon.

Maybe they could also get an entry into the World Book of Records for the first successful deployment of a solar sail. Take a look at the shimmering solar sail craft IKAROS here. The picture was taken by a self-deployed camera. What a cool spacecraft! One thing I give JAXA credit for is that they put some thought into getting quality pictures and video from their experimental spacecraft. Remember that their lunar probe had a high definition video camera.

Have a fine Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, forecast, Records, Space

It still looks like pretty good travel weather across most of the nation for today and tomorrow. The most likely airport delays will be in South Florida where several inches of rain could fall. For tomorrow the only spots that could experience minor delays due to the weather are Chicago and Seattle. The roadways should be pretty good around Wisconsin and the upper Midwestas well. The only snow will be an inch or two in the southern half of Wisconsin tonight and around northern Illinois tomorrow. Since temperatures will still be above freezing, the snow should melt pretty quick and not accumulate on the roadways. Friday and Saturday are looking dry and partly sunny with highs temps around 40 – maybe even reaching the low to mid 40s if there is enough sunshine.

AGW News:

Now on to the latest AGW news. I hope everyone is prepared for the deluge of “global warming” news over the next couple of weeks revolving around the Copenhagen negotiations. Most of it will have an “end of the world” flavor. Here are some recent headlines.

• African conflicts spurred by warming (global warming)
• Warmer means windier on Lake Superior
• (Thawing) Arctic has potential to alter earth’s climate.
• World on track for 6 degrees of extra heat.
• Ocean’s uptake of human-made carbon slowing.
• In Nod to Global Warming, Navy Preps for ‘Ice Free’ Arctic.
• Climate diagnosis is stark message for politicians (environmental Armageddon is upon us)
• World’s last bastion of stable ice now thawing (in Antarctica)

The last headline is the one I would like to focus on. In contrast to the very dire nature of the headline, the article itself presents differing opinions. Using GRACE satellite data, Jianli Chen of the University of Texas Austin estimates the east antarctic ice sheet is losing 5 billion tonnes of ice per year and it might be as much as 57 billion tonnes. The estimate is derived from changes in the gravity field of the ice sheet. Later in the article, it is noted that the margin of error in the measurement could be anywhere from 5 billion to 109 billion tonnes per year, essentially making the estimate of ice loss statistically meaningless. Clark Wilson (Center for Space Research) goes on to say that GRACE cannot differentiate gravitational changes from ice loss versus post glacial rebound of the land mass. So why the intentionally scary headline when the data is not yet conclusive? Perhaps the climate email hackfrom earlier this week gives us some insight. It was found that some climate researchers were intentionally trying to exclude data and publications that did not support the “accepted” AGW theory. Are some science journalists attempting the same thing – constructing headlines to back the leading theory and scare people into action? Or maybe the headlines are meant to just grab attention for more readers – they are in a media business after all. More readers means more money and a headline stating the last bit of ice on the planet is melting will get more readers than a more scientifically accurate headline such as “Is the East Antarctic Ice Sheet Melting? Experts Debate”.

Even though there is pervasive non-scientific discrimination against data, theories, and researchers that challenge the leading AGW theory (as shown by the hacked emails earlier this week), some articles do make it into the mainstream – so there is not a complete blackout. Here are a couple:

• Controversial New Climate Change Data: Is Earth’s Capacity to Absorb CO₂ Much Greater Than Expected?
• Antarctica Glacier Retreat Creates New Carbon Dioxide Store; Has Beneficial Impact on Climate Change

I am afraid I am growing immune to all the environmental Armageddon predictions and headlines lately. This tends to happen after 20 years of hearing the world is going to end. Back when the Kyoto treaty was negotiated we heard the same thing; if we don’t do something immediately the world will be destroyed. Maybe if I lived in the arctic, I would be more alarmed because apparently the warming has been greater there. Living in Wisconsin, things look ok. Despite the warnings that the environment was being destroyed year after year for 20 years, the landscape in Wisconsin looks about the same. The crops grow, the animals live, the water flows, etc. I guess the only change is the recent dry weather. We are now in our 7th year in a row (in Wausau) with below normal rainfall. This could be an effect of AGW but we have been through similar dry periods in the past so nothing conclusive can be said.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought

You know what the first order of business is: No winners in the snowmelt contest yet. We are still waiting to find out who will be the big winners of the R-Store gift cards. It will happen this week. Temps will be warm enough to put the final nail in the coffin of the last patch of snow on the mountain. High temps will range from 84 to 87 from Monday through Sunday. The one day that will be warmer is Tuesday when we should have 90 degrees in most of the area. If we end up with scattered thunderstorms that will help as well. A couple thunderstorms are possible this morning, there is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday, and one more chance on Saturday. Here is a viewer picture of the remaining snow taken on Sunday the 21st (yesterday). It looks like a lot doesn’t it? It is a substantial amount of snow but it is diminishing rapidly. Thanks Susan Schmidt for sending in the photograph. It looks like it was a fun time and a good day for a walk on the mountain. One thing I would like to ask of anyone else out there who might be contemplating a close-up look at the snow, please do not touch or disturb the snow. As it gets smaller, it will be more susceptible to minor changes, enough that it could make the difference between melting before midnight (a couple days from now) or lasting one additional day.

AGW News:

Take a look at this article to see what the sea-levels will look like in the year 4000 AD. The research presented shows a sea-level rise of 25 meters, which of course would completely flood most coastal cities, such as New York, Los Angeles, and New Orleans. Of course, this is pure fiction. Really. Predicting what the climate of the earth will look like in 2100 is extremely difficult. Stretching that to 4000 is an exercise in fantasy. It belongs in a Hollywood movie like “Waterworld“, not on the pages of any respected scientific publication. I can see no reason for someone to even spend time on such wild speculation except to either irresponsibly scare the willies out of the general public or prepare a script for a new disaster flick.

Why am I so sure it is pure fiction? Think about what life was like 2000 years in the past. The change we have seen over the last 2000 years is nothing compared to how things will change in the next 100 years, much less the next 2000. Not only are new energy sources be invented nowadays, people are also devising strategies to take carbon dioxide out of the air. If we can already envision ways to take carbon dioxide out of the air with the crude technology that exists today, just think what we will be capable of in 10 years, 20 years, 100 years? If carbon dioxide is the utmost important factor in anthropogenic global warming (AGW), then taking it out of the air should make things just fine again.

One interesting quote from the article is this: “Even if we could freeze-frame the atmosphere as it is today, sea levels would still rise by 25 metres”. Then why the heck is anyone debating cap-n-trade legislation or new Kyoto-style international treaties? Seriously. No matter what we do to stabilize emissions, we are still facing environmental Armageddon. Paradoxically, limiting carbon emissions (and economic activity by default), could delay the implementation of the only technology that would help us survive the theorized AGW. Not only that, making energy more expensive could cause energy shortages and even food supply disruptions. So not only would cap-n-trade legislation potentially harm current humans on the planet, it wouldn’t do a thing to stop all the theorized bad AGW effects in the future. If the governments of the world are going to do something, why don’t they do something that makes a difference. If they are going to spend money they should spend it on technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and start doing it pronto. Many people are debating different geo-engineering strategies to counter the effects of global warming but all of these ideas have serious drawbacks. If AGW theorists are correct (big if), then the only thing that should be discussed is how to take carbon dioxide out of the air.

Have a fine Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Heat, Viewer pictures