A big environmental story broke today that intertwines tightly with many of the themes I have been covering here in the blog over the last few months. The news is that world wide carbon dioxide emissions grew rapidly last year. Some headlines called it a “monster” growth in emissions. Other played the “worst fears confirmed” and “worse than we could ever imagine” theme. It isn’t worse than I imagine. As you know, I am optimistic about the future of alternative energy. I expect fossil fuel usage to climb for the next decade or two, before falling dramatically by the middle of this century and continuing to fall by 2100. A few months ago, I used a little web applet to help me plot out the scenario and its effects on global temperature. So it might look bad right now, but progress toward a cleaner future continues.

Delving inside the numbers we find more interesting facts. Carbon emmissions continue to go down in the U.S. Hooray for us! Emmissions are going down in the EU as well. A couple of the reasons for the decline in the U.S. is the ongoing great recession and more usage of natural gas. In the eyes of a mainstream AGW theorist, the use of natural gas is not all that great, but it is much better than using oil and coal (you wouldn’t know it by the tone of the article, sigh). Not only does natural gas usage emit less carbon dioxide, it is stupendously cleaner burning so almost all other metrics of pollution would go down as well! Not only that, the U.S. has enough natural gas to last for decades, if not centuries!! AND it is dirt cheap!!! It is beyond comprehension why national leaders in D.C. are not promoting natural gas as a bridge fuel to a cleaner future. Instead we continue to get billions in ethanol subsidies and more failed investments in alternative energy companies. I like the thought of investing in new start-ups, but that should be left to the private sector. I am tired of my tax money going up in smoke.

China continues to be the biggest polluter on the planet and India’s emissions are growing dramatically as well. This brings up an interesting question about the Kyoto treaty, that many people realized from the start. The critique was: if the Kyoto treaty did not include developing countries, then it would be useless. It turns out, it was nearly useless (or toothless). As predicted, China and other developing countries are now the world’s biggest (or rapidly getting there) polluters.

This story also hits on the progress theme I have been highlighting lately. Many governments around the world, such as in the U.S. and the E.U., have policies in place to “make the economy grow”. Most of the policies are intended to make people by more stuff, take on more debt, spend more money, build more houses, build more roads…etc. If the goal is to not pollute so much then perhaps we should be focusing on of the metrics of “growth”, as I oultined in more detail in this past blog post. Spending billions of dollars on NEW infrastructure guarantees that there will be more pollution in the future. On a bright note, I saw a report on TV the other day that home builders are getting more requests for multi-generational houses. In light of the “American Dream” scenario promoted during the last few decades, this might be seen as negative, but I think it is a good thing. Traditional farm families from a century or two ago, used to live in multi-generational homes. Families took care of each other. It is not a bad thing, as long as everyone is contributing. College dropouts, vegging in their parents basements playing video games for years on end, doesn’t sound so great, but it is probably better (for the environment especially) than if they took out a home loan they couldn’t afford and were living alone. Owning a home is not for everyone. There are many other “dreams” you can achieve and have a fulfilling life, without owning a home for most of your life. I don’t like the constant pressure coming from the federal government to spend-spend-spend, build-build-build.

Lastly, based on the latest carbon emissions story, can we now stick a fork in the Peak Oil theory, anyway the “major-crash-back-to-the-stone-age” part. Natural gas and oil sands development, while not panaceas compared to past “easy oil”, are certainly keeping the world afloat and look to continue doing so into the next few years.

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Before checking out for this Friday, an update on the US Drought Monitor. Conditions are about the same right here in Wisconsin. Some abnormally dry conditions continue in the northeastern corner of the state and have increased slightly in the west. No real problems. The worst drought in the country remains in Texas, but at least they have seen some slight improvement over the last month or so. Even better news is that they will have some more relief late this weekend and early next week. The northeastern part of Texas around Dallas-Fort Worth, could end up with a couple inches of rain. It will not be a drought buster, but it is better than nothing.

Lastly, don’t forget to partake in the archaic illogical ritual of turning the clocks back one hour Saturday night.

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Peak Oil, Pollution

Just a little update today on the trillion-euro plan the European Union is instituting to combat climate change (something I blogged about a couple months ago). The easy part was passing the law. Now comes the hard part – getting different industries on board. This plan is especially ambitious considering that the Euro-zone is suffering through a similar recession as the U.S. and has a lot of sovereign debt problems. On the flip side, the rising price of oil (while a natural drag on the economy) makes alternatives (and conservation) much more palatable.

No matter what the Europeans do, it might not make as much of a difference as they hope. This is because China continues to be the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide and their share continues to grow. Here are some graphs revealing the extent of the emissions. If something is not done about China and other emerging economies, pollution levels around the world might not drop, even though Europe (and the U.S.) are working more toward cutting emissions. The focus used to be on the most developed countries. When the Kyoto accord was signed, emerging economies like India and China were exempted. This will not work in the future.

China has self-imposed plans to go green in 5 years, but current pollution in the country is extreme. Chinese cities have some of the worst smog in the world. They are also struggling to keep water supplies flowing and sufficient for the needs of the population. Whether China is successful in bringing more green energy to the table, the problems of too much growth with little environmental concern has a way of catching up to a country. Thirsty people dealing with the adverse health effects of air pollution might end up demanding “green” energy faster than the Chinese government has planned.

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Update on the impending storm

Based on the current computer model projections, it still looks like 4 to 8 inches of heavy wet snow is likely for much of the viewing area late Tuesday night into Wednesday. A Winter Storm Watch is currently in effect (For Tuesday night and Wednesday) for Taylor, Clark, Monroe, Jackson, Juneau, and Adams counties. I expect this Watch will be expanded to include more of the area later this afternoon.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Winter Weather

If you didn’t check out Brian’s post from yesterday, take a look and you will see that March of 2010 could be the least snowiest month ever recorded in Wausau. It might also be in the top 5 warmest ever, although unlikely to be the warmest. I was mentioning a couple days ago about how there was no “tournament snowstorm” this March. Not only that, we haven’t even experienced one flake of snow! There is a slight chance of a few flakes Saturday night, otherwise no snow is in the forecast. In fact, high temps could be near 70 by the middle of next week – which would mean we would bust another old saying. That is, if March comes in like a lion it will go out like a lamb (or vice versa). This year was the lamb-est (if that is a word, lol) beginning to March in a long time. Next week it looks like very lamb-like weather again to end the month.

Of course, warm and dry weather for most of this year so far has led to a continuation of the drought in the northern third of the state. The US Drought Monitor showed no change in the drought since last week. I am afraid there will be an increase in the drought by this time next week because no additional significant precipitation is on the way. If we are lucky, we will get into a wetter pattern over the Easter weekend and the first half of April. There are some indications of a change in the jet stream pattern.

Alternative Energy News

A couple days ago I asked readers if anyone was planning on purchasing solar panels and/or an electric car anytime soon. Sadly, there were no responses. Maybe the question was buried to deep in the blog post. Any takers for comments today? I would definitely like to buy an electric car, if I can find something cheap enough. I would also install some solar power, but first I am doing something else to make my house more efficient – new windows. Interestingly, a recent survey indicated that 26% of people in the U.S. were planning on purchasing a “plug-in” vehicle for their next automobile.

This is good news. I hope a lot of people in central Wisconsin buy electric vehicles in order to reduce the amount of pollution in the air. I hate seeing the growing number of days with Air Quality Alerts. You wouldn’t think we would have to worry about air pollution here in Northcentral Wisconsin, but there are a lot of people driving cars a lot more than in the past. If we have a day or two when the wind does not blow much then the pollution builds up to unhealthy levels. Of course, it is not all our fault. A small but significant amount of particulate pollution comes all the way from China and India. Read more here. A lot of pollution that reaches the stratosphere also comes from China and southeast Asia.

I don’t want to be accused of bashing Asian countries (it is just a fact at this point in time) so I will also praise China for leading the world in alternative energy invesment. India has also started some programs for cleaner alternatives as well as an ambitious effort to manufacture LEDs for lighting.

North America at Night

Even better news for LED lighting is that fact that the largest semi-conductor foundry in the world (TSMC) is now building capacity for LED manufacturing. Perhaps the added volume of production will finally bring down the cost of LED lights for home use. Lighting accounts for a significant percentage of the world’s energy needs (as you can see from the night-time image of North America) and LED lights could cut that percentage a lot. As you know, I have seen a couple false starts for LED lighting in the past and am still hoping for a breakthrough soon.

Have a nice weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Drought, Records

To complete the space news from yesterday – I linked to an interview with the founder of Ad Astra Rocket Company. I forgot to emphasize that the new ion engine that the company is developing is the most powerful in the world and that NASA as well as SpaceX is hoping to use it on future space vehicles. A more powerful ion engine could cut a future trip to Mars from 520 days to as little as 39 days. Wow! Read more about it here.

Now on to a story I have been following off-and-on since late lastyear when the EPA and State of California decided to turn off irrigation spigots to large swaths of the central valley of California. This led to the failure of many crops and I became worried that we would see some spikes in food prices and/or minor shortages during this upcoming winter – especially in fruits and vegetables (this summer’s tomato/potato blight, the impending trade war, and other weather related events could also contribute). I became slightly worried again during my recent grocery shopping expedition to WalMart on Sunday. It seemed the produce aisle and a few other spots were a “little light”. Now maybe this was because I was shopping near the end of the weekend and right before their next delivery cycle, but there was definitely less quantity and variety on the shelves. The Great Value brand tuna was completely sold out. Blueberries (unaffected by the EPA imposed crop loss in California as far as I am aware), were more expensive. A small frozen bag of bluberries has gone up by 10 cents.

I don’t want to sow fear and panic. There was certainly still a lot of food in the store and other grocery stores I have visited recently, and locally grown items still seem in plentiful supply, but the lower variety and volume did catch my eye. Has anyone else seen this with any particular products you usually buy? Or maybe the volume of food seems greater than ever where you shop. Let me know.

Environmental News:

Another story that readers of the WAOW weather blog are up to speed on is that growing threat of pollution from other areas of the world. I can’t find my blog entry from last year, but it was reported that up to 15% of particulate air pollution along the West Coast of the U.S. was from China. It traveled through the air across the Pacific ocean. Now we find more research chronicalling this effect, including carbon monoxide pollution. What to do? A lot of people would say “what goes around comes around”. Americans buy a lot of products built in China (A LOT!), thus part of the problem is our consumption. Newer more automated factories and clean energy projects would help cut this down quite a bit. Even though China relies very heavily on coal for electricity (they are the world’s largest CO2 emitter), they do seem committed to switching over to cleaner alternatives. It is a good thing that they produce a significant fraction of the world’s silicon solar cells. They also have enough land and wind to meet most of their electricity needs using wind turbines, although Chinese land would become rather packed with wind turbines in such a scenario. Even if they don’t quickly adopt alternatives, at least they are working on the world’s most advanced coal-gasification power plant.

Just for fun:

I know how much people like to search out cool videos and pictures on the net, so here are a couple of interesting “time-wasters” (as I like to call them).

How about the world’s largest machines and gadgets? Check out the pictures and descriptions here.

Scientists have used infrared camera technology to enumerate the bats leaving the Carlsbad Caverns in New Mexico. Check out the cool video. The number of bats was about 4 million.

How dense is the network of McDonald’s restaurants in the U.S.? Someone actually created an image showing the density of McDonald’s using the distance to the nearest franchise as a metric.

Have a fine Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Environment, Pollution, Science, Space