It is warm around the country…just not here.  We are going to continue to see temperatures below average with highs tomorrow only in the 60′s! Yes 60′s! That is closer to our average low temperature.  The rest of the forecast calls for highs only reaching at best the upper 70′s.  I really wish we could get one week of summer in here… 

On the other side of our cold spell the northwest is receiving record breaking heat.  They are in a ridge which has been sending temperatures that are about 25 degrees above average.  Yesterday Portland hit 106 just one degree shy of 107 the all time high for the city set in 1981.  Today the Seattle area could be breaking there all time high of 100. 

In other news.. there is always the discussion of how weather can impact your health.  Sometimes it is a joke that people can tell you a system is coming in before the weather person tells you because they can “feel” it.  Meaning they can feel the drop in pressure. Just the other day someone mentioned to me how they woke up with such a bad headache, it was a day when we had a very low pressure in place.  I have also experienced headaches from sudden drops in pressure. 

In a new reportphysicians say that sudden chances in barometric pressure as well as higher temperatures and humidity have an impact in causing a migraine.  One of the reasons is change in pressure affects air oxygen levels which in turn can affect blood vessels in the brain.  It is the contracting and expansion of blood vessels that normally cause most headaches. 

Warning signs of Migraines include but are not limited to flashes of light, blind spots in vision, tingling of limbs.  Migraines range in severity and length but can include nausea, and sensitivity to light and sound.  Some can just last a few hours where as other people may experience one for days.  Hopefully you are not one of the many but if you are you may want to get medicine to stop the pain before it starts!  

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Records, Science

It is suppose to be the hottest time of the year and we can’t seem to even break 80! It is amazing that we are already on the back side of the hottest time from July 17th to 27th.  This means we are in the downward turn of summer and yet did we even have one?  As of now there may be some warmer temperatures in the future by the end of next week.  If models are right a high pressure will build in earlier in the week and bring some cooler air for Monday.  As the high shifts to the east and winds return to the south the winds will warm us up maybe even to 80, I know shocking isn’t it! For the last week we have had consistent rain chances today being the first dry for most of the area besides the north.  The dry weather will continue into tomorrow with rain returning for Thursday and another chance on Saturday.  We now have .99″ for the month of July which is still 2 inches below normal but surpasses the driest July on record which was .94″ back in 1937. 

In other news I found an interesting articleabout a study done in France on how raindrops actually get there size.  For over a 100 years experts have thought that raindrops size was related to the interactions the droplets have in the cloud.  However this new study reveals that they may actually fall from the cloud as larger drops and break up as the are falling to the ground.  In a generalsense a rain is formed when water vapor connects with dust or particles in a cloud.  In the cloud the tiny drops collide with one another forming into larger drops.  Eventually these drops fall from the clouds.  In this new study two scientists analyzed high speed movies of falling water drops and found that the drops go through a series of shape-shifting  moves and burst apart into multi sized drops.  The phases are -the drop falls then in flattens out like a pancake, eventually it gets thinner and wider and catches the falling air and forms an upside down bowl.  When it reaches a certain point it eventually breaks and falls apart as many different sized drops.  Maybe now we know where those different sized drops come from!

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17487-myth-of-raindrop-formation-exploded.html

the link above actually includes a video of the explanation! Check it out!

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Records, Science, Storms

I had the opportunity to go camping near Rhinelander last weekend. My wife brought up Murphy’s Law – remarking as to how it has been so dry for much of the summer and then the weekend we decide to have a big family get-together including fishing and camping - it rains. At least it wasn’t a continuous rain. The highest amount was on Saturday afternoon. It rained from about 1:30 until 3:00 pm and there was a half inch. Amazingly, bythe next day, there was not much sign of the rain. The ground was so dry that it soaked up very quick. The upshot of the rain is that hopefully the water level will begin rising again – or at least stop dropping. Many people have noticed the lower lake levels in recent years. Reservoirs have been particularly hard hit, some of them drying up to just a trickle during the late summer of the last 2 years. The natural lake we were at has fallen between 2 and 2.5 feet since 2001 (the last year with above normal rainfall in most of northcentral Wisconsin). I doubt the lake levels will come up much until we have 3 or 4 years in a row of above normal rainfall.

So the weather was cool and we had off-and-on rain over the weekend. That is exactly what we can expect for the upcoming work week.

Picture by Shirley Kohnen

It looks like a good chance (at least 60%) of thunderstorms this afternoon, on Thursday, and again on Saturday. There is a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms on Tuesday and Sunday. Wednesday and Friday are currently looking like the best days with dry conditions and more sun than clouds. High temps could hit 80 today and then remain in the 70s from Tuesday through Sunday – so the cool weather pattern continues. July of 2009 will end being the coldest July we have experienced since the record cold of 1992. Is it so cool that some trees might already be turning color? At least one tree at Shirley Kohnen’s place has all red leaves. That being said, very few trees will display this type of early coloring. For the vast majority of the area, our best color is coming in late September and early October – like usual.

Alternative Energy:

Last week I linked to an article about investment into algae-produced ethanol, and how one company was developing an efficient process for the purpose of creating a new source of liquid hydrocarbons for the plastic industry. A couple more articles extolling the virtues of algae-produced ethanol have come to my attention this week. This one describes a couple new business ventures and claims current algae ethanol techniques can achieve an EROI of 3 or 4 to 1. Grain based ethanol (using yeast) is barely 1.2 to 1 even under the most ideal conditions. Meaning we can barely get as much energy out of the process than we put into it. Petroleum has an EROI of at least 5 to 1.  A new start-up claims an even bigger advance. Joule Biotechnologies claims it can make 20,000 gallons of ethanol per acre. They claim they could produce all the fuel needed for transportation in the U.S. in an area that size of the Texas panhandle. Joule will be building a test production plant next year. Then we will find out if it can really deliver. The one hitch in the Joule method (and many similar algae methods) is that it needs a concentrated source of carbon dioxide, which would most likely have to come from a coal or natural gas fired power plant. So as far as AGW goes, the algae ethanol is theoretically carbon neutral, until you factor in the source of the carbon dioxide. Also, using liquid hydrocarbons for fuel, no matter the source, still produces pollution.

Speaking of AGW, the American Meteorological Society recently issued a statement in support of geo-engineering to save the planet from the theorized destructive warming that might happen over the next few decades. It is nice to see a statement in support of geo-engineering but we will have to wait a while to see if they make the correct move toward support of carbon capture and carbon removal. Most of the other proposed geo-engineering is potentially dangerous. Fertilizing the oceans and putting reflective particulates in the air in or space could have serious side effects. What is needed is carbon removal. If AGW theorists are right, then it is the only sensible option. We should be creating/inventing methods of extracting CO2 from the air or have plants do it for us. Perhaps something like these cabon capturing molecules could lead the way. Storing the captured carbon dioxide gas underground could be effective according to recent research. But is it safe? Even better would be if plants could grow more, store the carbon, and then decompose underground. There is still plenty of room in Wisconsin for thicker forests and bigger trees.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Pollution, Viewer pictures

Yesterday was a bust, it all looked good until the mornings storms basically stole the ingredients we needed for the afternoon storms, the most important factor being moisture.  Today we are in cyclonic flow which means the low that is just east of us in Lake Superior is spinning counter clockwise and throwing disturbances at us which is firing showers and a few storms all across the area.  The radar has continued to be active with almost everyone receiving at least one shower.  The activity will taper down as we loos the heating of the day and I anticipate most of it to be done by Midnight.  I will still keep an isolated shower possible in the overnight. 

Tomorrow…same story, different day.  The showers and storms will again fire up, mainly in the afternoon.  We will continue to be in this pattern until late Sunday when the low finally moves more east.  The break will be short lived as another cold front is forecasted to move in by late in the day on Monday.  This will mean more storms Monday evening through Tuesday.  There will be the potential for strong storms and as always we keep an eye on the chance as we get closer. 

Although we are seeing plenty of rain chances we are still seeing the cold temps.  Our NWS office came out with a discussion about why.  I know we have blogged about this previously but I thought I would share it again and add in there graphics.  We continue to be stuck in a trough of the jet stream.  This trough covers mostly the eastern half of the US. Take a look at the graphic below.  Because  of this we keep getting fed with cool Canadian air.  Normally the jet stream would be way to our north in Canada.  On the flip side the western half of the US has been under the ridge which has meant for record breaking heat.  Unfortunately it doesn’t look like summer is going to be returning anytime soon with highs only forecasted in the mid 70′s.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Severe Weather, Storms

As expected, the rainfall yesterday and last night was hit-or-miss. Some locations had downpours and other had none. Here in Wausau we ended up with just enough to wet the pavement (0.03″). Our weather watcher Pat from Arkdale reported 2 inches of rain and the unofficial total from Alexander Field in Wisconsin Rapids was 2.84 inches!! Most of the rain feel in the eastern half of the area. If showers form this afternoon, once again the heavier rain is likely from Marathon county and I-39/51 on east in the area. For those who missed out, the next best chance of rain will be on Friday when a strong cold front moves through the area. One good thing about the forecast is that heavy rain is looking less likely for Saturday. It is now looking like mostly cloudy and cooler conditions with scattered light showers Saturday afternoon. It could be enough rain to cause some problems with your outdoor activities but it shouldn’t be a complete deal-breaker. Overall, high temps will still be about 5 degrees below normal from today through Sunday with Thursday being the warmest day (highs in the upper 70s to near 80). Even next week could be below normal. Given the cooler temps, I am starting to think Brian will win the latest office forecasting contest. The challenge was to forecast how many days in July would have a high temperature of exactly 81 degrees. Brian had the lowest guess with 2 days. So far we have recorded no days with a high of 81 during July. I thought it would be an interesting forecast contest because the normal high for the month is 80.8 degrees, which would lead most people to believe that we would hit that mark at least once or twice. In July of 2004 we had 6 days when the high was 81. In 2005 it was twice. In 2006 and 2007 it was only once. Last year it happened twice. This year is not looking promising, we might not even have any days above 80 for the rest of the month! We have only experienced 3 days with high temps in the 80s!

So is there any hope for a warm weather trend in the future? I have a sneaky suspicion that we might have a pretty nice Fall and maybe a mild early winter period because of El Nino.

August Temp. Anomaly

A weak El Nino is forming right now and the CPC experts expect it to last into the winter.

Aug-Sept-Oct Temp. Anomaly

If the El Nino would happen to reach moderate or strong status then it would be even more likely that we would see a change in the jet stream pattern and develop milder weather – maybe by late September, October, or November. I see that the latest long range computer output is latching on to the idea of a warmer winter for our area. Although, you should take it with a grain of salt because the last two winter’s were predicted to be warmer than normal (CPC outlook) and of course they ended up being 2 of the coldest we have experienced in some time.

Jan-Feb-March Temp. Anomaly

Maybe you can take it with a smaller grain of salt this year because El Nino is a fairly reliable weather signal. You can check each month of the outlook here. You will notice that the computer outlook indicates a greater than average chance of cooler than normal weather in our part of the country for August and September but then by November and December and especially by February, a much greater the average chance of warmer than normal conditions.

Have a fine Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, ENSO Update

What is in a headline?  Headlines should be descriptive. They should give you a clue as to the nature of the words you are about to encounter in the body of the article. In popular media a headline is often written to draw attention. Some headlines might be more dramatic in order grab more readers. Scholarly (research articles) are descriptive but rarely “dramatic”. Where the popular media and scientific articles meet is where we sometimes run into trouble. This is particularly the case with anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The popular headlines over the last decade or so have been hyperbolic – and this could be an understatement. The actual climate research (and papers) is mostly couched in terms of percentages and confidence intervals – such as “there is a 90% chance of xxxx happening by 2100″.  I have heard and read some climate scientists mention this fact. They say the popular media takes their research and statements out of context and blows things out of proportion. This is likely the case for most research and researchers, however leading climate scientists are increasingly jumping into the political/activist arena so the media cannot be solely to blame – think James Hanson “we are all toast”, or James Lovelock “it is already to late to save humankind”.

Here is a recent article that captures the problem pretty well. “Sea Level Rise – It’s Worse Than We Thought“. Sounds bad, doesn’t it? Grabs your attention, doesn’t it? Pretty typical of AGW headlines. The headline leaves no margin for error. IT IS WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT. Read the article and you find that things are not so certain. Here are a couple quotes:

“And while we still don’t understand the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers well enough to make precise predictions, we are narrowing down the possibilities.”

“Findings like these suggest that predicting sea level rise is even trickier than previously thought.”

“and while regional climate models are improving, ice sheet models are still too crude to make accurate predictions.”

Another article here displays a more subtle problem. “New NASA Satellite Survey Reveals Dramatic Arctic Sea Ice Thinning“. Sea ice has thinned in recent years but what should be considered “dramatic”. The writer thinks it is dramatic. Others might label it dangerous, extreme, or worrisome. We know from human records and climate proxies that the north pole was likely ice free at a few different times in the past. What is needed are some historical numbers to put the ice loss into perspective. How do the last 4 years compare to other periods of ice thinning?

When non-scientists cover science topics, there will always be a few poor or exagerated headlines, but that is the nature of media. My job is at the intersection and thus I probably notice it more often. The best we can do is read deeper into the data or article. A headline that says “the world is ending” will usually have caveats or properly framed data within.

Not surprisingly, articles covering alternative energy can sometimes be over-blown. Advocates like myself might feel positive about a new technological breakthrough and want to let everyone know about it. How better than to start with a dramatic headline. Here is one from today “Major Breakthrough With Water Desalination System“. When I saw the headline I was hoping that a new process had been developed that would make desalination much cheaper, or maybe a desalination plant had been built that exclusively used solar power. After all, the world could really use more desalination capability. Unfortunately, the “major breakthrough” was interesting, but hardly major. Researchers at the UCLA Henry Samueli School of Engineering and Applied Science created a mobile desalination testing plant. The nice thing about being mobile is that it can save a lot of money when planning a new desalination plant. Otherwise a test plant has to be built on the future site of desalination to make sure it is feasible. With the UCLA mobile test plant, they can just haul in the unit, conduct tests, find out if it will work, and then move on to the next site. This saves money, which is good, but I wouldn’t call it a “major breakthrough”. It is good press for UCLA. Maybe they have some connections with Science Daily.

If I had to pen an attention grabbing headline for our current weather in Northcentral Wisconsin I would call it abnormal, strange, or even amazing. Scientifically speaking we will be within 5 degrees of breaking record lows and record cool high temperature marks by Friday of this week. Today and tomorrow will seems scorching as compared to Thursday and Friday – even though high temps will only be around 80. Later this week the mercury will struggle to reach 70. The good news is that temps should warm-up for the weekend. We should experience mid 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to around 80 on Sunday. Most of the week will also be dry. Our one significant chance of rain will be tonight. I am forecasting a 70% chance of rain, but that does not mean it will be heavy. I doubt many areas will have even a half inch.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Records, Science