Judging by all of the grumbling going on recently, you might think that we are setting some records for cold or snow during this month of March. Interestingly, we are not even close. So far we have not set any daily records for snow or cold and it is highly unlikely that we will break any monthly records, that is unless we do not hit 40 degrees during the month. That might be an odd record that we set. I haven’t looked at all the March records all the way back to the 1800s, so I don’t know for sure if we have ever had a March without 40 degrees, but if it would happen this March, I will be sure to find out.

So how far away are we from the all time coldest March? About 5 degrees. The coldest March on record (in Wausau) occurred in 1899 when the average temperature was only 17.4 degrees. This year’s cold does not even put us in the top 10 for coldest March. In the 10 spot is March of 1926 and 1956. In both of those years the average temperature for the month was 21.9. This year our average temperature through the 20th is 22.1, which puts us in 11th place. With a bit milder weather on the way, I would expect our average temperature to rise up to around 24 or 25 yet before the end of the month, which would probably put us on the outside of the top 20 for coldest March. This March sure is one of the coldest in recent memory, but it doesn’t compare to the era prior to 1960, where most of the records herald from.

CPC April Temp Prediction

So yes, it is cold, there is a lot of snow on the ground yet, and we might not hit 40 this March, and this is reason to grumble a little. However, be thankful you didn’t have to live through March of 1899!Is there any hope for a blast of Spring-like warmth as we head into April? Maybe. Just looking at the extended daily weather charts, it doesn’t look like anything real warm for the next week to 10 days, however the newest CPC extended outlooks indicate at least a chance for a warm-up in April across the southeastern half of the country including the eastern half of Wisconsin. It isn’t a very strong signal for warmer weather, and we still have a bit of snow to melt away, so I wouldn’t be too confident in a warmer April, but sometimes the weather pattern can switch dramatically.

CPC April Precipitation Outlook

What about later in the year? If you click through the 3-month forecasts at the CPC website, you will find that the CPC is forecasting a good chance nearly all the country will be above normal during the Summer (the “JJA” period). I sure hope it isn’t as hot this year as last year. Another hot dry year would be bad for food production and no doubt the media will go crazy with “end of the world/disaster” predictions. The possible good news from the CPC predictions is that there is a good chance that precipitation will be above normal in Wisconsin during April, May, and maybe early Summer.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under CPC Outlook, Records, Winter Weather

With all of the snow falling over the past month or so and the colder than normal temperatures during the month of February, you might be wondering if there is any hint of Spring in the near future. The short answer is no. However, if you are not a Winter enthusiast, you might find a ray of hope in the most recent Climate Prediction Center (CPC) monthly outlooks. When you go to the monthly outlooks page, you will find the next month (March, as of now) is the first month displayed. If you like warm weather, then you want to see a lot of the orange, reddish, and brownish color over Wisconsin. That would indicate a better chance of above normal temperatures. As you can see, much of Wisconsin does just barely make it into the area of the country that is expected to have a greater chance of above normal temperatures.

Be careful what you wish for though. If you scroll down a little and look at the precipitation forecast, you will notice Wisconsin is in the area of the country with a higher chance of seeing above normal precipitation. If we do indeed end up in the middle area between parts of the country with colder than normal temps and warmer than normal temps, that could be favorable for stormy weather. Could it mean more heavy snow? Could it mean several rounds of slush, rain, and ice?

CPC March Temp Outlook

Maybe some severe weather? All of these are possible in Wisconsin in March. It is known as a pretty wild month weather-wise. I wouldn’t mind seeing above normal precipitation in March, even if most of it fell as snow. I like Spring and Summer too, but I don’t mind if the snow sticks around longer than usual. That’s March. Tha’s Wisconsin. Now, if it snows a lot in April, then I would start to complain. Hmmm. If you click on the next periods in the monthly forecasts (March-April-May or MAM, and April-May-June or AMJ) you will notice a very similar pattern to March, a greater chance of warmer than normal temps and higher than normal precipitation. Maybe the drought will be beaten back a bit. I’ve got my fingers crossed.

Have a fine Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook

A little housekeeping on temperatures first. It now looks like there was not a record low temperature in Wausau on Wednesday morning of this week. The climate expert at the NWS in Green Bay reviewed the minute by minute data from the downtown airport reporting station and found that the temperature only fell to 32. So we still don’t have any record low temps so far this year, and the odds are that we won’t have any. I can’t rule it out but since it has been quite a warm year already, and the arctic sea ice is once again lesser this year, AND a weak El Nino is forming in the Pacific, it seems more likely that warmer than normal temps will continue through the Fall and into early Winter.

CPC October Temp Outlook

The CPC computer models agree with the chances of a warmer Fall as well. The latest monthly outlook for October shows a greater chance of above normal temps than below normal temps for most of the eastern two thirds of the nation – basically where it has been hotter than normal all year long. The only place where cooler than normal temps might persist? Along the west coast, which has been cooler than normal for much of the year. If you click through all the three month periods in the latest run of the climate outlook, you will find the odds of above normal temps continue all the way through Fall and into early Spring next year.

CPC October Precip. Outlook

The worst news in the latest climate outlook is that it appears there will be a higher chance of below normal precipitation across the Great Lakes region of Wisconsin in October. I was hoping that at some point we would get a period of wet weather to help boost ground and surface level water. I would hate to head into next year with below normal water levels. That would not bode well for the start of next growing season. For snow lovers, I know it does not sound too good for the upcoming Winter season, however, it only takes a couple of big storms to dump enough snow for trails to open. Just because temperatures are more likely to be above normal does not mean there will be no snow. That being said, I am not too optimistic.

I am optimistic about solar power though. Earlier this week I discussed some of the possibilities for wind power in the future. It is a decent alternative to fossil fuels, but not perfect, and I am kind-of neutral on wind power. Solar seems to make better sense because it can potentially be implemented with a lesser affect on the environment and natural scenery and it has more technological upside in the future. It is more expensive but the prices are getting more reasonable. The prices have gotten so reasonable that I have started to do a little shopping. Unlike an electric car (which I would love to own but are too expensive) solar panels are within my price range. In recent years we have been hearing so much about how the prices were dropping to a dollar a watt, and my browsing around the Internet has confirmed this. There are many suppliers selling bigger 1 kilowatt panels for about $1,000. That is dirt cheap compared to historical prices. If you go for lower grade panels that have small manufacturing defects you can find them all the way down to 0.40 cents a watt. Wow!

Solar panels on an RV

So now that I have found some panels in my price range, I just have to figure out how to implement them at my house, which might be troublesome. I have trees shading most of my property in the city. Some of the trees are “boulevard trees” so I can’t just chop them down without the city’s permission. I have called the city about this and am awaiting a response. I will let you know how things are resolved. If I can’t make room for solar panels in the city, maybe I will just buy an RV and go live in the country somewhere.

The other issue is installation. As I have highlighted in the blog many times, the highest cost of adopting solar power is the installation. Professional installers charge exorbitant prices. The installation usually ends up costing many times the price of the solar panels. We are talking thousands and thousands of dollars. If I can find some sun on my property (by trimming or cutting down trees), then I will probably do the installation myself. It isn’t too hard for someone who has at least a modicum of electronics knowledge. Stay tuned!

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under CPC Outlook, Technology

Did you enjoy the flash of fall weather we’ve been having lately?  Even though we have been sitting in overall cooler than normal conditions the past ten days, it doesn’t look like summer is calling it quits yet.  The weather patterns will be changing over the next week to a jet stream coming in from the west and southwest into the Upper Midwest.  This will drive some rather warm air that has been sitting over the western U.S. right back into our area.   It may very well be a fairly persistent flow for several weeks.  In fact take a look at the air flow projection for the mid-atmosphere for the first few days of September.   It shows that ridge in the Plains with the main core of jet stream winds riding from the Pacific northwest up into Canada.  This is a very favorable pattern for above normal temperatures around Wisconsin.

Below you can see that the  6 to 10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center has much of the southeast two-thirds of the country in warmer than normal conditions. 

Fortunately we should have a more active finish to August with numerous chances of showers and storms.  This is reflected in the 6 to 10 day precipitation outlook showing a good chance of above normal amounts in our area.  Drier than normal conditions are expected in the western U.S. down through the Southern Plains.

Finally the September Outlook from CPC predicts warmer than normal conditions over much of the country and drier than normal conditions across southern Wisconsin and much of the middle of the nation.  If this disturbing trend continues the fire danger will be off the charts for the early autumn with lawns and pastures staying very brown. 

Posted under CPC Outlook, forecast

If you are sick of the hot temperatures and can’t wait for Fall to arrive, you might have to wait a little longer than normal this year. The CPC has released the latest long range monthly outlooks and the chances are good that above normal temps to continue each month through the end of the year. Anyway, the chance of above normal temps is greater than for below normal temps. One of the keys that might drive warmer temps later this year is El Nino out in the Pacific ocean. An El Nino has not officially formed yet, but it is getting closer. The official forecast calls for a weak El Nino to form during the Fall and early Winter. If an El Nino does form, it is almost a guarantee that we will have warmer than normal temps, on average, this Fall and early Winter. Sure, there will probably be some bouts of colder weather, but the way things are going, I doubt any cool trend would last too long. Fall is my favorite time of year so I almost always enjoy warmer than normal temps during that time of year. Most people would enjoy a mild winter as well, but it would be bad for Winter enthusiasts to have two years in a row with mild temps and little snowfall.

CPC August Temp Outlook

Overall, the CPC outlooks do not put us back into the equal chances for above or below normal temps until the May-June–July period of next year. Of course, by that time the skill of the long range computer models is much less. I would put much more stock in the forecast for next month.

Could we see 90 degrees in October? I doubt it, but given the drought this year in much of the nation, this would be the year it might happen, again. It has only happened one other year in Wausau’s history and that was 1976. If you are old enough, you probably remember a severe drought happened that year as well. It was the record lowest annual precipitation in fact, in Wausau. The high temperature on October first of 1976 was a record 91.

Drought conditions through June for the last 116 years

Whether or not we have have some 90 degree temps heading into Fall is highly dependent on the drought situation. Things have improved a bit in southern Wisconsin and southern Minnesota recently, but it is still extremely dry in much of the Midwest and Plains States. Many people have been wondering if this year is the most widespread drought or the hottest temps we have seen in much of the nation. I analyzed the situation in Wausau in this past blog post, and we are on pace to record the warmest July and warmest Summer. We might eclipse the records that were set back in 1936. For the rest of the nation, here is a neat graphic showing the extent of drought conditions during June for the past 116 years. It is natural to focus on the worst years, but I also used the graphic to see the “best” years when it comes to rainfall. It seems 1993, 1983, 1975, and 1907 were the years that had the least drought through June. One other thing I noticed is that the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic regions of the country seem to have the lowest frequency of drought overall. Keep in mind, this graphic is depicting drought conditions through June. During some of these years, the drought condition turned better or worse during the second half of the year.

Have a swell Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under CPC Outlook, Drought, ENSO Update

This year has been warm thus far, in fact, you could even call it hot, if you are comparing it to normal. January and February were about 6 degrees above normal, March was a record nearly 16 degrees above normal, April was the “coolest” month so far with temps only 2 degrees above normal, and May checked in at about 4.5 degrees above normal. June is running above normal so far as well. In total (through May), the year is running 6.9 degrees above normal. The big question is: Will it continue?

I hope not. At least not for July and August, because that would probably mean some long stretches of hot and humid conditions with many 90 degree days. It is normal human nature to extrapolate what happened in the recent past into the future, so it would be intuitive to say that the rest of the Summer will be hot, but the weather is chaotic and goes in cycles, so a surprising cool trend is not out of the question.

CPC July Temp Outlook

If I had to bet though, I would put my money on continued above normal temps. Maybe not scorching, but certainly plenty of humid days with highs in the 80s.

The CPC is also “betting” (higher chances) on continued above normal temps for the southwestern two thirds of the nation for July, and for most of the nation (including most of  Wisconsin) for the three month period from July through September. You can check out the temperature and precipitation forecasts for the next few months here. Just click on each three month period in the “more outlooks” section. These are three month forecasts. “JAS” stands for July, August, and September.

CPC July-Aug-Sept Temp Outlook

If you click on the periods later in the year and early next year you will see a good chance of above normal temps for the northern tier of states during the late Fall and Winter. This is most likely due to the expectation that a weak El Nino will form in the Pacific ocean. The latest ENSO discussion indicated a 50% chance that a weak El Nino could form and over the last couple of decades this has always meant warmer than normal temps for Wisconsin during the Winter. I would feel sorry for snowmobilers if we had a second Winter in a row with mild temps and not much snow (due to El Nino). All is not lost though, even during an El Nino Winter, we can get a couple of big snow storms. It only takes a couple storms dumping 10 to 12 inches of snow to get the trails open and in good condition. So don’t get depressed yet. You know how the weather is. Maybe El Nino will not form and maybe it will be a decent Winter for snow conditions. We will certainly keep you updated with future outlooks.

Have a swell Saturday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under CPC Outlook, ENSO Update

Temperatures have been well above normal for the last few months, since November 2011, and it looks like that trend will continue for the next few days, but it might not continue for the entire Summer. I say “might not” because the weather is of course known to be quite temperamental and highly changeable here in Northcentral Wisconsin, but also because the CPC outlook does not indicate a strong trend toward the warm weather continuing. If I had too stick my neck out, I would say the Summer months ARE going to average above normal. How far above, I am not sure. I suspect we will have a couple of heat waves where the high temperature stays in the 90s for 2 or 3 days in a row, but I don’t think it will be super-hot all Summer long like a few people have told me (just in casual conversation on the street).

Summer CPC Forecast

The CPC has the northern half of the country in the “Equal Chances” category once again for the month of June and for the 3 month (June-July-August) period. The higher chance of above normal temps is expected to be in the southern half of the country. Precipitation for us is all indicated as “Equal Chances”.

With the warm weather we have had as of late, you would think that the snow on Rib Mountain would be gone. That is not the case. I you entered the contest back in April and are anxiously waiting because you picked a date toward the end of May, you are in luck. The snow is melting pretty fast. I think it will be gone or very close, over the holiday weekend. Here are a couple of pictures taken today – May 23rd. Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Snowmelt 2012

To being today, I would like to take a trip back to last Friday when I mentioned the new monthly outlooks released by the CPC. The outlook maps indicate EC for our area or “equal chances”. I normally explain this as the monthly forecast having an equal chance of being above normal or below normal with regards to temperature (and precipitation). This gives you a good idea of what we are looking at in the maps, but there is a different, subtle, and yet important statistical meaning to the EC on those maps. A climate expert from the NWS in La Crosse pointed out the difference in the comment section of the blog.

What the CPC does is look at the last 3 decades and divides the years up into the 10 warmest, the 10 coolest, and the 10 that lie in between. After the long range forecast is complete, they compare the result to those 3 categories. The EC means that there is an equal chance that the month in question (or 3-month period) could fall into on of those three categories (warmest, coolest, or in between). Thanks to Mr. Boyne for pointing that out. I am looking for a CPC link that explains the statistical formulation of the long range outlooks, as I know I have read it before, but I haven’t come up with anything yet. I’ll share it when I find it – for all you climate buffs.

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Another topic that needs repeating is the odd frequency of fireballs falling from space during the Spring. We had one streak through the sky a couple of weeks ago. One has also been seen in New Zealand and Texas in the past month, and now one of the more dramatic events might have occurred this past weekend in Nevada and California. I say might because as of now, there is no video or picture of the event even though hundreds of thousands of people claimed to have heard the booming noise throughout the Sierra Nevada mountain range on both the California and Nevada side. There are so many security cameras, cell phone cameras, wildlife cameras, etc., that one would think there would be some evidence that turns up sooner or later, but none so far. For all the conspiracy theorists out there, no doubt this brings up thoughts of military ”tests” out in the Nevada Desert. Has anyone read or seen any of the more “wilder” speculation? Nothing has crossed my “radar screen”.

On the topic of things coming from and going to space, one topic I follow quite closely is private space exploration.

Asteroid Mine, Artists Depiction

The biggest news coming out of this arena in recent days is that several corporate and entertainment moguls are planning a joint economic venture in space. The early buzz is that they are proposing to mine and build outposts on asteroids. Some say it is a quixotic (foolish) quest. I wish them all the luck and success in the world. I am thrilled that a private venture is taking this risk (and they should reap the rewards). It is better than the government spending billions of dollars of taxpayer money per year on such an effort.

Besides the possibility of fame and riches, these space entrepreneurs are performing another function for the human species as a whole. They are providing a method of survival. I have mentioned before a few times that anthropogenic global warming might turn out to be a significant problem in a few decades, there are much greater existential risks that could engulf this planet tomorrow or within a matter of years. In order to avoid extinction, it would be best if we were not a one planet species. That is the reason another entrepreneur – Elon Musk – founded SpaceX, to make sure we have the possibility of surviving a planet-wide catastrophe.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under CPC Outlook, Space

The latest long range monthly outlooks have been released by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and if you are hoping for an early Spring you might be in luck. I say might because looking ahead months in advance is still a very in-exact science. The March outlook for Wisconsin indicates a significant chance of above normal temperatures across Wisconsin and most of the Great Lakes region. As a bonus, there is also a greater than normal chance of above normal precipitation. I am always happy if we head into the growing season with some added moisture. It helps everything turn green and start growing vigorously right away.

CPC March Temp Trend

Now just remember, as you are reading this and thinking about a potential mild March, don’t forget that the rest of the month of February is looking rather Winter-like. We have to get through the next couple of weeks before we will see whether or not the CPC forecast is correct. Also remember that above normal precipitation in March could mean either rain or snow. If we end up with a couple of big storms dumping several inches of snow, it might not seem like an early Spring, even if the majority of the days in March are above normal.

CPC March Precip Trend

As far as the longer term goes, the three month average of March-April-May is also predicted to have a chance of above normal temperatures in our part of the country. Otherwise, all other periods in the forecast indicate EQ or “equal chances” of above or below normal temps and precipitation. So basically, after a possibly mild March, the computer models can’t discern any major trends through the Summer.

Now an update on the current Wintry pattern referenced above. Light snow will continue off-and-on for the rest of today and might accumulate an inch or so. On Thursday another storm moving through the upper Midwest has the potential to produce 2 or 3 inches of snow but current charts indicate it might track through southern Wisconsin and not bring a whole lot of snow to Marathon county and further north. The third storm of the week will be developing later Sunday into Monday morning and has the potential to create several inches of snow. It is still too early to say where in the state the heaviest snow will fall.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, forecast

We always try to take a longer look into the future with our discussions here in the blog, often citing other sources of extended forecasts, by following the atmospheric and ocean patterns (like La Nina and El Nino), and by examining long-range computer models. Once every month we take a tour of the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) long range computer outlooks. Every month the computer models are run and they crank out temperature and precipitation trends for the next 12 months into the future. NCEP (of which the CPC is part of) also runs daily forecast that stretch any where from an hour up to 16 days.

CPC February Temp Forecast

If you are a snow-lover hoping for a continuation of our recent more frequent snowfall, there isn’t a lot of hope in the latest CPC outlook. In the short term, there doesn’t appear to be much hope for significant snow through next Wednesday. In the longer term (out to two weeks) your best hope would be for a significant snowstorm to move through during the early part of February. Otherwise the CPC outlooks for the month of February indicates a greater chance of above normal temperatures than below normal temps. It also shows a greater chance of above normal precipitation for far eastern Wisconsin, but the greater chances of heavier precipitation are well off to the east of the state in Indiana and Ohio. 

CPC February Precip Trend

For snowmobilers, it will be key to have some snow in early February if we want to get most of the trails open and in good condition before Spring. Once we get into late February and early March, it is tougher to keep a good base around, even when we have a heavy snowstorm. The sun is much warmer late in the Winter and melts the snow a little faster. I can only remember one Winter in the past two decades when trails – which had been closed all Winter – were opened in early March after a big snowfall.

Perhaps that is the way it will go this Winter – big snow in the Spring.

March-April-May CPC Precip Forecast

I am not sure I would be too happy with another Spring filled with late snowstorms (like last year) but the CPC outlook for the March-April-May period indicates a greater chance of above normal precipitation during this time period. In one respect it would be good because if we do not receive a lot of snow during the Winter, then we could use a little more rain in the Spring to catch up and have a good start to the growing season.

For the rest of the CPC outlook, through the Summer there are no big indications toward either hot/cold or wet/dry trends. The next trend that shows up for our area is above normal temps in the Fall.

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Now a follow-up on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). I have been monitoring the progress of the telescope because it promises to deliver better images and data than even the Hubble telescope. Unfortunately, it has hit cost over-runs and was on the chopping block for a while. The latest NASA budget does include money for the JWST, but some observers still think the project might be cancelled. The projected cost of the telescope has now risen to 8.8 billion. With a price tag like that, I can see why politicians might want to cancel it. It would be a shame if it was cancelled, because it would bring some great new discoveries to astronomy, but when you are talking about billions of dollars in today’s era of insolvent government’s, projects such as these get left behind. It would be a shame of JWST was cancelled because it is already half built. It would be similar to the super-collider that was half built in Texas before being cancelled. What a waste of money! Of course, 8.8 billion dollars seems a little unreasonable as well. I know it is a very large and complicated telescope but 8.8 billion dollars!? Where does all the money go? Are they paying the engineers $200 an hour or something? Are they paying $10,000 per screw?

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In another follow-up of a developing story I have been following, a U.S. led investigation has found that some Chinese solar power manufacturers are selling solar panels below cost. Given that this finding was released by one side in a developing trade war, I would be cautious of the claim. As I have mentioned before, with the growth of international trade and government involvement in alternative energy across the globe, pinning blame on one country and thier subsidies would seem to be a fool’s errand, like shooting yourself in the foot. Maye there is some very egregious unfair support that the Chinese provide  their solar companies, but we shouldn’t forget that subsidies exist for different industries in every country of the world.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, CPC Outlook, Space