While I didn’t see many deer out in the woods Saturday, I sure was giving a show by a gang of rambunctious red squirrels.  I’ve been hunting for over 25 years and I can honestly say I’ve never seen so many red squirrels in a small area before at the same time!   There were 8 of them within 30 yards of my stand. I had no more been in my tree stand for 15 minutes when the little cute critters were scurrying around in the dry leaves, wrestling each other, racing up and down trees, and making their characteristic chatter.  This circus continued for a good two hours. 

At one point a particularly brave red squirrel climbed right up the tree I was sitting in.  It got to about 4 feet below my stand and just looked at me.  I tried to wave it away but it insisted on figuring out who I was.  Its big bushy tail danced back and forth with excitement.  That is definitely the closest a squirrel has ever come to me without being frightened apparently.  It held its position for at least a few minutes before it jumped to another tree and carried on. 

I particularly enjoyed watching when one squirrel would chase another up a big tree trunk in a corkscrew pattern.  They looked like they were being wound around a coil!  It’s amazing how nimble, quick, and coordinated they are.  It was fun watching them take breaks while nibbling on some corn cobs that they dragged in from the nearby field.  The way they sit on their back legs with back straight up is sort of humorous. 

They made so much noise it was a distraction from hearing potential “deer noises.”  Oh so it goes.  You never know what to expect in the woods do you?  While I didn’t get my deer, I did reconnect with the wonders of nature.  It was a great reminder that beyond the thoughts, business, and problems of human life there is a whole thriving other world locked in the forests and fields.  All that is truly a blessing from our good Lord.

Posted under Ecology, Fall, Nature

How about a look at the weekend forecast first – since it is the biggest “holiday” of the year for many Wisconsinites. It is of course the opening weekend of the gun deer season and everyone is wondering how the weather will be. I couldn’t really pin-point any trends last week because it was too far out to look and the jet stream pattern has been changeable changeable and unstable. It is no different this week but we are now closer to opening day so I will put a preliminary forecast in writing. It looks like a low pressure system will be moving through the Midwest this weekend and it could bring rain to Northcentral Wisconsin. Right now I am forecasting a 50% chance of light rain or drizzle on Saturday, especially during the afternoon and evening. As of this point, it looks like temps should be warm enough (above freezing) to avoid much freezing rain, sleet, or snow. If it does rain, amounts will probably not be too heavy, around a tenth of an inch or two, but it doesn’t take much to really ruin a day out in the woods.

The storm should pass through Northcentral Wisconsin Saturday night, leaving us with colder conditions on Sunday. Right now it looks like there could be some light snow showers in the air Sunday morning, but the main concern will be a gusty west-northwest wind and high temps only in the mid to upper 30s.

If the track of this storm shifts 50 miles or so farther south, we could end up with more of a mix of moderate rain or snow. I will keep you updated here in the blog all week.

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And now or a topic I have been blogging about for a few years now – AGW lawsuits. A couple of recent Newscientist articles have brought the topic back to the forefront – saying that lawsuits might be the best option for implementing climate change. I am unsure if this is true, but I know a whole lot of lawyers will become more obscenely wealthy if AGW lawsuits are the “thing” of the future.

Here is one of the recent articles, suggesting that lawsuits might be better than governmental negotiations.

Al Gore's Mansion

If you want to read my detailed (somewhat funny) past take on the issue, go here. Setting climate theory aside, the legal aspects of AGW lawsuits are illogical. Who gets to sue? Who has to pay? Since China is the biggest polluter in the world right now, I suppose environmentalists lawyers are lining up to sue them, right? I think not. Island nations want to sue big oil companies for rising sea levels (which actually went down last year). Do I also get to sue the island nations back for promoting environmentally disastrous tourism to their “paradise”. I think my first lawsuit will be against Al Gore. I sit in a small house with my thermostat set at 63 all Winter, while he jet-sets all over the world, lives in a mansion (or at least did live in a mansion before his divorce), and uses obscene amounts of fossil fuels.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, forecast

Over the weekend, I was a bit conflicted. I had forecast the correct conditions (at least 5 days in advance), but the conditions were not all that great for the opening weekend of the hunting season. It was a bit cold on Saturday (as forecast), and we had some freezing drizzle and rain on Sunday (as forecast) which caused a little less hunting activity. A lot of hunters I know got a little damp and cashed it in early to go watch the Packer game. The hunting group I was with ended up harvesting 3 deer – which is about what we hope for during the opening weekend. What did you think about the weekend weather? 1. Wasn’t very nice. 2. Not so bad because I was prepared (thanks to StormTrak9 – wink).

Now it looks like some messy weather will follow us into the work week. Much of the area will experience rain and drizzle today but temps will be cold enough to the north and west for some sleet and freezing rain to mix in with the precipitation. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY is in effect for Taylor county through 6pm today and a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for Price, Iron, and Ashland counties through this evening. Not too much snow is expected, perhaps an inch or two in the WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY area. What could be of more importance is another storm that could bring a wintry mix of precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday morning. If you are traveling during this time frame be sure to allow some extra time as the roads could get a bit slippery. As far as flying goes, the airport most likely to experience delays on Wednesday and Thursday will be Minneapolis. After the messy precipitation is over on Thanksgiving morning, it looks like gusty cold winds will move in and make it feel more like winter in the afternoon. Black Friday will also be quite cold with high temperatures only hitting the low 20s. The good news is that the weather should be dry from Thursday afternoon all the way through Sunday of the upcoming weekend. Therefore, traveling home from long weekend family get-togethers should be much better than traveling to “Grandma’s Place”.

In other news, I often follow the interrelated stories of advancing technology, AGW, and Peak Oil because all three will have a major impact on how we percieve and act in the present day and how we will evolve into the future. It is unfortunate that most discussion of these three topics are done in isolation, because this can lead to illogical predictions. One might ask how we can destroy the planet with carbon emmissions while at the same time oil is running out. One might ask how AGW will destroy the planet when the technology of clean energy continues to advance rapidly. One of these questions popped into my head again today while reading this article about Peak Coal. Not only is there concern over Peak Oil and Peak Phosphorus, but Peak Coal as well. One thing about the article, at least I see people starting to acknowledge that if we have Peak (name your fossil fuel) in the next decade or two, this will have an affect on climate forecasts. In the past it was assumed (in climate models) that we would have “business as usual” fossil fuel usage through the end of this century. Increasingly, this does not look to be the case, and I hope the climate modellers at the IPCC will incorporate at least some more realistic scenarios in the future.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, forecast, Peak Oil, Technology, Travel, Winter Weather

It has been a few weeks since I have focused on the US Drought Monitor (officially updated every week) because the drought was gone from the state, thanks in part to the flooding rain at the end of September. You can probably imagine why I am bringing it up again today. Drought has creeped back into the state. This time it has appeared in the southeastern corner of Wisconsin. It is only in the “abnormally dry” category right now and it is unlikely to get too much worse too fast because it is Winter, a time when precipitation (or lack there-of) does not affect water levels as much as during the Summer. For folks in southeast Wisconsin there is hope a little rain or snow could develop a couple times next week. It doesn’t look like a lot but a little is better than none, unless you are worried about holiday traveling, then even a little could mean trouble. Which brings me to some of the forecast details…

It still looks quite cold for the opening morning of the deer hunting season. Low temps could be near 10 degrees in the northwoods and in the 15 to 20 range in central Wisconsin. There will be a north to northeast wind about 5 to 10 mph – not all that bad but enough that you will feel it. High temps should reach the upper 20s to low 30s during the afternoon on Saturday. On Sunday there is still a 40% chance of freezing drizzle in the morning then a few drops of rain could fall in the afternoon as temps rise into the upper 30s. The wind will be out of the east-southeast around 10 mph.

Next week we could end up with a few light rain or snow showers on Monday and some light snow on Wednesday. If the snow does develop on Wednesday, it looks like there could be an inch or two. What might be of more concern is the possibility of much colder temps for the middle of next week. High temps from Wednesday through Friday will only be in the 20s.

Have a safe hunting weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, forecast

First a look at the deer hunting forecast for this weekend. It looks about the same as it did yesterday. I am forecasting high temps in the 40s on both Saturday and Sunday. Low temps should be in the upper 20s to low 30s on both mornings, some areas might even be a couple degrees above freezing. I expect partly sunny skies to develop on Saturday afternoon and then increasing clouds again on Sunday. The wind should be out of the southeast on Saturday and Sunday – about 5 to 10 mph on Saturday and 10 to 15 mph on Sunday. I am still calling for a slight chance of showers late Sunday afternoon.

On the subject of deer hunting, I found this link in our weather office bookmarks titled “Our Deer Hunting Heritage“. I hate to say it but the fellow is correct when he says “Our whitetail heritage is in great jeopardy. As deer hunters we currently exist as an endangered cultural minority fast fading into the dustbins of history.” This might seem little surprising coming from a fellow living in Barneveld Wisconsin because Wisconsin has one of the largest deer hunting traditions in the nation (and maybe the world), however he is right on the money. The deer hunting heritage is fading as fast and in a similar fashion as our farming heritage. Human society grows more urban and disconnected with nature every year. The recent “locally grown/organic” fad is just a blip on the overall trend. Some people are sad to see the loss of our heritage of country living that includes farming and hunting, as am I, but I cannot blame people who are moving in a new direction. Throughout human history each generation has tried to make the world better for the next generation and this usually involves making life easier. I grew up on a dairy farm and it was not an easy life. I appreciated my experience and I am better off for it, but it was not easy. I woke up and milked cows before heading off to school. In the present day, the number of kids laboring an hour or two before school is nearly zero, and they are happy about it. The only animals most kids encounter are cats and dogs. So it should come as no surprise that younger generations do not hunt nor do they understand the cultural heritage of hunting. The disconnect is not as bad in Wisconsin (as referenced earlier) but it is happening. Unfortunately for hunters, there is likely no turning back. I fully expect the decline to continue and there is little to do about it. I also expect hunting to be banned in the not too distant future (maybe a decade or so). The hunting population is only a tiny fraction of society as a whole, and seeing as we live in a representative republic….well, you do the math. Enjoy the heritage, the camaraderie, and the challenge while it lasts.

Alternative Energy News:

I enjoy keeping track of alternative energy developments as a way to counteract all the negativity that comes with AGW and Peak Oil news. While the overall trends of alternative energy development remain very positive, it is not all rosy all the time. Consider these recent reports about the solar energy industry: German solar panel producers are initiating lay-offs due to cooling demand and a supply glut is causing price erosion in the solar market. The supply glut could be good news for consumers, as prices for PVs will come down, but it can be tough on the producers. On a positive note, it seems solar manufacturers are suffering supply/demand cycles similar to the semiconductor industry. Does this mean they will experience the same growth and efficiency gains as the semiconductor industry experienced over the last couple decades? Maybe. I hope so.

For those of you who a resting some hope on nuclear fission to move us into a new energy future – here is some cold water for you: private stocks of fissionable material could run out by 2013. That is a pretty scary prediction – if true. We would still have nuclear material in bombs and government stockpiles, but that would not last very long either. Perhaps the lack of fissionable material and the increasing price of oil will lead to faster solar development.

Even in the world of electric cars, there are more bumps in the road. BMW, the company that leased the Mini E (an electric mini cooper) as a test in the U.S. has ran into many operational difficulties. The individual cars are operating fairly well. The problem comes with government bureaucracy and infrastructure. Getting the correct and desirable plug in and voltage for your electric car can be tricky. Also, there are 40,000 local electric authorities and 3,300 utilities to deal with in the U.S. when trying to connect to the grid. That’s a lot of headaches.

Bureaucracy is a problem but sometimes business decisions can doom a company as well. Have you ever wondered why the Aptera has been delayed? Here is a recent article describing the management change at Aptera that induced a redesign of the car.Seems the main point of contention was that the windows should roll down. Besides making it easier to stop at a drive through restaurant, this would also keep a person cool if the air conditioner would happen to break. The original founders of Aptera wanted to sell the original model this year. A car company veteran who was hired as CEO demanded the design changes and this has delayed the roll-out of the vehicle. It also resulted in the founders of Aptera getting canned. They are gone. While it is typical for outside investors to oust the original founders (typically people who do not have good business acumen), I don’t think this is good news for Aptera. They already have the trouble of over-coming the quirky design and now the roll-out will be delayed to the point where other competitors will gain a foothold in the market ahead of them.

There is better news for the Nissan Leaf. It is currently on a nationwide tour of the U.S. Sadly, the closest the tour will get to us is Detroit.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Peak Oil

We set a new mark for “coldest temperature of the season” this morning – anyway, coldest at FAA reporting sites. The temperature dropped all the way down to 13 in Land O’ Lakes. Here in Wausau the the low was 21 which was also the coldest of the season so far. This might have some worried about the weather trend for the upcoming deer hunting weekend. Don’t get too concerned. It looks like some mild weather will prevail on Saturday and Sunday – maybe to mild. In the past when I have hunted, it seems the perfect day is a low temperature in the 20 to 25 range and a high temperature a little above freezing, let us say 33 to 39. Partly sunny skies are nice as well. As long as the high temperature stays in the 30s, then any snow on the ground will not melt (which is not a concern this year), the harvested deer cooldown quickly, and you don’t have to shed too much clothing. I have gotten too hot in previous years when lows were in the 20s and high temps were in the 45 to 50 range. I guess the best way to prepare for that type of weather is to wear layers instead of a big insulated suit/parka. That is the type of preparation that might be needed for this upcoming weekend.

It looks like the day will start out in the mid to upper 20s. Partly sunny skies and a southeast wind (about 10 mph) on Saturday will help boost the temperature into the mid 40s (maybe even the upper 40s). That is not too hot for hunting but it is pushing it. On Sunday, the southerly wind will continue as well as the mild temps. Low temps on Sunday will likely be a little above freezing and high temps will reach the low to mid 40s. If there is some hazy sunshine on Sunday, then high temps might get close to 50. That being said, I do expect more clouds on Sunday and I am currently forecasting a 30% chance of light showers. I have seen some hints that the rain might hold off until Sunday night, so the Sunday forecast could change a bit as the week rolls along. Stay tuned for updates here in the blog.

Space News:

A few updates from the sky above this week. The LCROSS mission planners (the “bombing the moon” mission, which was a terrible choice of words) have analyzed more of the data returned from the impact and have found a signature of plentiful water in the shadowed area of the target crater on the moon. This is great news and bolsters the chances of building a successful human colony on the Moon.

The “bombing the moon” terminology has led a group of concerned citizens to create a group called Friends of the Moon to protect it from further harm and impact missions. The moon has been “bombed” at least a couple dozen times in the past with no ill effect and the LCROSS mission did no harm either – as expected. Yet the terminology used to publicize the effort garnered too much of the wrong kind-of attention. Some people speculated that the moon would “ring”, or “hum”, or fracture, or something bad and that there would be wide ranging effects even here on earth.

The Spacecraft DAWN has entered the asteroid beltand will remain there for the rest of its mission. It will rendezvous with the asteroid Vesta in approximately 619 days – doesn’t that seem like forever. It will orbit Vesta for a while and then take off for the dwarf planet Ceres (which is also in the asteroid belt). Thinking about how long these missions take sometimes makes me a little pessimistic on the hopes for human travel to the rest of the solar system. The only way I could envision the trip (with current engine/rocket technology) is to have one or two stops at large rotating space stations. These would provide a false gravity and give passengers a chance to “stretch their legs”, making a 1 or 2 year trip a bit more palatable.

On Mars, mission planners are hoping to test escape manuevers with the rover Spirit today. As you know, poor Spirit has been stuck in sand for the last couple months. Engineers have tested different escape move here on earth and plan to start using these with Spirit today. Updates are sure to come later this week. If it cannot get unstuck then it will likely end the mission for Spirit. Thankfully, Opportunity has been doing well and will continue exploring.

You may have heard the Leonid meteor shower is expected to be above average this year. That may be so in Asia tonight, but by the time we have an opportunity to see the shower here in the U.S. (early morning on Tuesday), the meteor rate is expected to be only 1 every two to three minutes. I have seen some good meteor showers in the past when the rate was 2 or 3 every minute, and that was pretty cool. Once you get less than 1 per minute, it gets a little more difficult to see and enjoy.

Speaking of something that was a little difficult to “see” and enjoy was the movie 2012. I saw it with my wife on Friday afternoon. It was certainly a huge special effects disaster bonanza and on some levels I did enjoy it. However, the drama and disaster special effects were just a little too over the top for my taste. An interesting note about the movie is that there were at least 4 specific mentions of Wisconsin in the movie (might have been 5). It makes me wonder if one of the writers, directors, or producers were from Wisconsin. Also, just in case you were wondering if any of the 2012, Mayan calendar, Nibiru, disaster scenarios are true, the answer is no – based on all the available evidence to date. There is exactly zero supporting evidence to date – so don’t get too worried. (Another debunking of 2012 scenarios)

And in our “fun and interesting yet time-wasting” segment today – how about this very detailed 3D video rendering of the Hudson River plane crash from earlier this year. Listening to the conversation between the pilots and the tower was amazing in that respect that they remained quite calm. I was also surprised at how long it took the air traffic controllers to realize that the plane had lost both engines and there was no possibility of landing at a nearby airport.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Space