As greenhouse gas induced warming of the climate continues, the water cycle will be changing across the globe.  This is the conclusion of a recent study led by William Lau of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland.  He and his team used 14 different climate models to to simulate 140-year spans that ingested varying levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.  The basic findings are that for every 1 degree F temperature rise across the world, heavy rain events will increase by 3.9%.  Meanwhile moderate rain events will decrease by 1.4%.  Also prolonged droughts will increase by 2.6% for the same 1 degree temperature rise caused by increased carbon dioxide.  Light rain events are projected to climb by 1%.

The heavy rain events are forecast to increase the most in tropical zones especially in the Pacific Basin and Asian monsoon regions.  On the other hand the more prolonged droughts should especially impact the southwest U.S., northern Africa, northwest Australia, coastal Central America, and Brazil.

The decrease in moderate rain events is troubling since that is the type of rain that is most beneficial to crops and other plant life.

You can read more about this study from the following link.  http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/wetter-wet.html

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Science

I ran across some interesting survey results recently that are worthy of sharing with you.  The survey deals with drought, water and energy usage, and how it concerns Americans.  It was conducted in late July by the think tank, Civil Society Institute.  They are a non-profit, non-partisan group based in Massachusetts.

Below is a copy of a press release I received from them.   

SURVEY:   MOST AMERICANS WORRY ABOUT DROUGHT, WANT SHIFT TO CLEANER ENERGY TO AVOID WATER SHORTAGES, POLLUTION

Two Thirds of Americans Favor More Federal Action to Address Extreme Weather Woes, Concerns Higher in Drought-Hit States of AZ, CA, CO, FL, GA, MO, NV, NM, SC and TX.

BOSTON, MA.///August 16, 2012//Water — and how to protect it in the face of worsening drought conditions — is now a hot topic across America. 

Faced with record-breaking 2012 summer heat, 81 percent of Americans are concerned about “increased drought” and other extreme weather conditions, according to a major new ORC International survey conducted for the nonprofit and nonpartisan Civil Society Institute (CSI). In addition to the national poll data, more detailed results were presented for the drought-hit states of Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, South Carolina, and Texas.

Conducted July 26-30, 2012, the CSI survey found that concerns about drought go hand in hand with worries about water shortages and also how to avoid making them worse.   Three out of four Americans – including 61 percent of Republicans, 84 percent of Democrats and 80 percent of Independents — think that “with all the current concern about severe drought and the risk of water shortages, America needs to start focusing more on alternative energy sources, such as wind and solar, that require less water.”  This view is shared consistently across nearly all drought-stricken states surveyed.

Other key findings include the following:

* Shortages of safe drinking water due to drought and “the diversion of water for energy production” is the No. 1 overall worry in the 10 drought-stricken states with 63 percent “very concerned,” reaching highs of 74 percent in Florida and 71 percent in Georgia.  Nationwide, nearly two thirds (64 percent) of Americans are “very concerned” about the prospect of “possible shortages of safe drinking water” due to drought and diversion for energy production.  This issue is topped nationally only by concerns about higher food prices (66 percent), and is trailed by higher gasoline prices (61 percent), higher utility bills (49 percent), and diminished recreational activities (24 percent).  

* Well over four out of five Americans (85 percent) – including 76 of Republicans, 91 percent of Democrats and 88 percent of Independents – say that the availability of ample clean water should be a top national priority for the U.S. In drought-hit states, the total rises to 86 percent in California and 90 percent in Georgia. 

* About two out of three Americans (65 percent) think “the national government needs to do more to address extreme weather impacts.”  In drought states, views on this issue are strongest in Nevada (69 percent) and Florida (76 percent).

* Americans want an energy/water “road map” for the U.S. Nearly nine out of 10 Americans (89 percent) – including 86 percent of Republicans, 93 percent of Democrats and 85 percent of Independents – believe that “U.S. energy planning and decision making must be made with full knowledge and understanding about the availability of water regionally and locally, and the impact this water use from specific energy choices has on their economies, including agricultural production.”  

Pam Solo, president, Civil Society Institute, said:   “We now understand all too well the harsh realities of the current drought and its relationship to changes in the climate from global warming.  America’s ‘all of the above’ non-solution for electricity generation is a dead-end path – one requiring vast amounts of water for coal-fired power plants, nuclear reactors and the fracking extraction of natural gas.  It didn’t have to be like this.   In 2005, the Congress mandated that the U.S. Department of Energy produce a water/energy roadmap.  Seven years later, we have neither a roadmap nor even a general understanding of what water resources we do have. We don’t know what the competition between energy, agriculture, industrial and residential uses will mean for food security and the dependability and costs of energy sources that are reliant on increasingly scarce water.  The sad truth is that we are flying blind today when we could have had the foundation for a national water/energy
plan in place years ago.”

Heather White, general counsel, Environmental Working Group, said:  “Across the political spectrum, Americans are united in their understanding that an ample supply of clean water is essential to our health and to our energy future.  This drought and the other extreme weather events we are experiencing provide a painful reminder of that reality. We must move to a clean energy future that doesn’t solely consider carbon emissions; it must also safeguard the quality of our drinking water and the overall environment. The vast majority of Americans know that the same business-as-usual and ‘all of the above’ approach to energy policy simply isn’t going to get us there. We must have a fundamental shift toward clean alternatives like wind and solar instead of doubling down on water-intensive and potentially dangerous energy sources like fracking and nuclear power.”

Pollster Graham Hueber, senior researcher, ORC International, said:    “The old expression is that everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it.   That may not be the case when it comes to drought that poses a threat to the availability of clean water.   Driven by their concerns about drought, a strong majority of Americans responding to this survey were open to making choices – such as more wind and solar power – if doing so would avoid worsening the water shortages brought on by drought.   In looking across party lines, we see broadly bipartisan sharing of both concerns about drought and support for more ‘water friendly’ energy alternatives.”

Seth Sheldon, senior water and energy analyst, Civil Society Institute, said:   “The water/energy nexus in a period of drought and water shortages is something we can ill afford to ignore.  On average, nearly 50 percent of the water withdrawn in the US is used by thermoelectric power plants for cooling and the generation of steam for power.    Facilities that use “once-through” cooling withdraw huge quantities of water from lakes and rivers and return the water at a much higher temperature to the detriment of downstream ecosystems. Facilities that use ‘recirculating’ cooling withdraw less water, but that water is evaporated away and lost to the atmosphere. Both types of power plants are critically dependent on water and prone to pollution of the same.”

OTHER KEY SURVEY FINDINGS

* Seven out of 10 Americans – including 63 percent of Republicans, 76 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of Independents – support a “precautionary principle” approach to addressing water and energy issues.  The 70 percent endorsed the following statement:  “The precautionary principle would advocate a conservative approach to the use of technologies that may put public health at risk and create irreversible environmental harm.  If there is not enough scientific evidence showing that it is safe, precaution should guide decisions in those cases.” 

* Two thirds of Americans – including 50 percent of Republicans, 78 percent of Democrats, and 68 percent of Independents – now think that climate change is “real” or “appears to be happening”.  Only 6 percent of Americans now say that climate change is “definitely not happening”.   Residents in nine out of 10 drought states – ranging from a low of 63 percent in Texas to highs of 76 percent in Florida and 80 percent in California – are as or more likely than the rest of America to think that climate change is real.

* Of those Americans who say that they think climate change is real or appears to be happening, 73 percent – including 65 percent of Republicans, 78 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of Independents — have been influenced in their views by “recent extreme weather events in the United States — including drought, wildfires, high-wind storms, and other developments.”  In drought-stricken states, two-thirds of those who recognize the existence of climate change have been influenced by recent weather events, reaching highs of 80 percent of those surveyed in Texas and Florida.  

* About two in five Americans (39 percent) have “personally experienced the impact of drought in the last year.”  In drought-hit states, this jumps to highs of 74 percent in Missouri, 69 percent in Texas, 63 percent in New Mexico, and 62 percent in Colorado.

* More than three quarters of Americans (77 percent) — including 62 percent of Republicans, 88 percent of Democrats and 83 percent of Independents – are concerned about the drilling process known as fracking.  Nearly three out of five Americans (58 percent) are aware of “fracking” today, compared to 27 percent who said they know nothing about it.”

* About four out of five Americans (79 percent) — including 77 percent of Republicans, 83 percent of Democrats and 80 percent of Independents — support “tighter public disclosure requirements as well as studies of the health and environmental consequences of the chemicals used in natural gas drilling.”

For full survey findings, go to http://www.CivilSocietyInstitute.org on the Web.

METHODOLOGY

The ORC International report conducted a nationally representative telephone survey among a sample of 1,017 adults.  Oversamples of at least 150 adults were also conducted in each of the following states:  Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, South Carolina and Texas.  The survey was conducted during the period of July 26-30, 2012.  The margin of error for the national survey is plus or minus three percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.  The margin of error for each of the state surveys is plus or minus eight percentage points.

ABOUT CSI

Based in Newton, MA, the nonprofit and nonpartisan Civil Society Institute (http://www.CivilSocietyInstitute.org) is a think tank that serves as a catalyst for change by creating problem-solving interactions among people, and between communities, government and business that can help to improve society. Since 2003, CSI has conducted more than 25 major national and state-level surveys and reports on energy and auto issues, including vehicle fuel-efficiency standards, consumer demand for hybrids/other highly-fuel efficient vehicles, global warming and renewable energy. In addition to being a co-convener of TheCLEAN.org (http://www.TheClean.org), the Civil Society Institute also is the parent organization of the Hybrid Owners of America (http://www.HybridOwnersofAmerica.org).

EWG is a nonprofit research organization based in Washington, D.C. that uses the power of information to protect human health and the environment. http://www.ewg.org.

MEDIA CONTACT: Patrick Mitchell, (703) 276-3266 or pmitchell@hastingsgroup.com.

EDITOR’S NOTE:  A streaming audio replay of the news event will be available on the Web at http://www.civilsociety.org as of 5 p.m. EDT on August 16, 2012. 

Posted under Ag Weather, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Drought, Pollution

Image from NOAA

It’s official.  July 2012 will go down not only as the hottest July on record, but as the hottest month ever recorded in U.S. history! 

In a report titled “State of the Climate”, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the average temperature in the U.S. was 77.6 degrees, 3.3 degrees above the average 20th century temperature for July.

According to NOAA statistics, this July was the warmest since the summer of 1936.  That’s when the average temperature in the U.S. was 77.4°F.  That’s also when the Dust Bowl was destroying farms across the American Plains with horrendous weather conditions and disastrous drought.

This year, over half of the United States (63% according to NOAA) is in one form of another of drought.

To give the report a look over for yourself (it’s an interesting read with several graphics depicting the info) follow this link: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/   

Posted under Climate Change, Drought, Environment, Heat, Natural Disasters, Records, Science, Seasonal Items, Weather History, Weather NEws, World Weather

There was a good comment in the blog yesterday broaching a subject that often comes up during periods of dry weather – is there a geologic feature in the area that makes storms split? Delahny asked it this way:

“We live between Rudolph and Versper. We have watched storm after storm and radar image after image create a virtual bubble around us – storms to each direction but overhead. Is there some geologic feature, some meteorological reason, something which causes this phenomena?”

The short answer is no. If Rib Mountain, or Bruce Mound, or Powers Bluff caused storms to split up then thhose areas near the geologic features would be very much like a desert because there would hardly be any rain during any year. The hills around Northcentral Wisconsin are not big enough to have any significant effect on storms or storm systems. The Great Lakes, of course, DO exert some well-known effects on weather patterns around the Midwest, but even they are far enough away from most of the viewing area to not affect thunderstorms very often. The only features in the landscape that I would attribute to very slight changes in storm paths and/or rain patterns is the gradual elevation change from low sandy open areas of Adams and Juneau counties up to the higher forested areas north of Marathon county. This gradual change in elevation and land character seems to affect the weather a slight bit. I don’t have any scientific data to back this up. It is just an observation based on my years of forecasting around here.

The longer answer is that this topic usually comes up every time there is a drought. It is the nature of most droughts in Wisconsin that there is some rain that occurs periodically every month – but this rain is very hit-or-miss. If the rain was more widespread, there wouldn’t be a drought in the first place. So many locations end up missing out on the few chances of rain during a drought and it certainly seems like something is keeping the rain away, but it is mostly bad luck. Here in Marathon county and Wausau we were lucky for the early part of the Summer. I only had to water my gardens once in June. Unfortunately, the last 2 weeks have not been so great and the storms are missing my gardens. So. it looks like I will have to water this afternoon.

There is a chance of storms on Saturday, so I could maybe wait to water, however, I am not 100% certain the rain on Saturday will be widespread. There will be high humidity and the storms could be strong but they might also be fast moving. I figure if I water today, then any rain on Saturday will be a bonus.

Another drought related discussion that has bubbled up nationally is whether the current heat and drought is being caused by anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The latest US Drought Monitor shows about the same drought conditions across the nation as last week, although in Wisconsin we have seen some small improvement. Repeated rounds of thunderstorms have caused the areal extent of extreme drought in southern Wisconsin to shrink.

The question remains: Is the the drought being caused by AGW? I have to give credit to environmental reporting and climate scientist statements for being more true to science lately in stating that, yes, according to theory, this type of event is what one would expect in an AGW world, but what really matters is the trend throughout many years and decades. It is more likely that AGW theory is on solid ground if we see an increasing trend in heat and droughts. And, that is why there is sometimes some bitter disagreement about the instrumental record. A few of these disagreements have made headlines recently.

I blogged about Richard Muller’s recent findings a while back. He was formerly a bit more skeptical about AGW theory but now he is more confident that it is true. First, he looked at the instrumental record in order to filter out possible bad data (such as thermometers affected by the urban heat island effect – which is dramatic). He found that there was not too much difference when the potentially “bad” temperature data was filtered out. There was still solid evidence that temperatures increased noticeably during the 20th century. He recently also looked at the correlation between CO2 emissions and the temperature rise and found a very good correlation, therefore he is now very confident of AGW theory.

Then you have some citizen bloggers and scientist who are more skeptical of the temperature record and don’t trust the data being released by government sources. Here Steven Goddard shows some of the differences in temperature trends over the years and suggest there might be fraudulent manipulation going on by the scenes. Even I, a person who accepts that humans are affecting the climate and temperature trends to a certain extent, had to go hmmm? after looking at the data. James Delingpole and Anthony Watts have also recently jumped on some of these changes in the “official” temperature record.

At first glance, this of course looks very suspicious. However, I suspect there are some logical valid reasons relating to statistical filtering of the data that have caused these changes in the official record (and the graphs). Sometimes there are even honest mistakes. I can assure all the readers that any changes in statistical methods, tabulation, and modelling are usually very open and transparent. Almost all of the data you see reported in mainstream sources has been through a robust peer review process. If I (or you) had enough time, we could dig through all the published papers and find the reason why each change was made and how this led to changes in the temperature trend/graphs over the last couple of decades. The odds that there is fraud is fairly low.

Have a swell Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Science, Weather NEws

I heard someone mention the other day that the current drought and heat is just like the 1930s. I think that is taking things bit too far. We tend to have short memories and the 1930s are a long time ago as compared to the normal human lifespan. A quick look at this wikipedia page or this youtube video will remind you of how dry, hot, and devastating the 1930s were in the U.S. In Wausau, 9 of the top 20 warmest Summers we have recorded in the last 115 years or so occurred during the 1930s. Only 1935 failed to make it into the top 20. It ranks number 31 on the list of warm Summers. So it was not only hot back then, it was hot EVERY Summer for a decade. I shudder to think of the media coverage, intense anthropogenic global warming (AGW) discussions, and political machinations that would occur if the U.S. suffered a multi-year drought and heat wave like the 1930s. It is such a distressing thought, I want to block the image out of my mind and stop writing right now. Alas, we should not be surprised if such a pattern did develop because multi-year and even multi-decade droughts were much more common in North America prior to the 20th century.

Nothing growing in this field during the dust bowl years

That is not to say that there are NO comparisons to the 1930s. 1936 had the warmest July and 1933 had the warmest Summer (June-July-August) we have ever recorded here in Wausau (going back to the late 1800s). This year we are on pace to break both of those records. The mean temperature so far this July is 77.3. In 1936 the mean temperature was 76.7. It looks like we are going to be close to breaking that record. Current extended forecasts indicate a more substantial cool down could hit the area for the last few days of the month. If it does materialize, then we will probably not break the record. Otherwise, we are in the running.

For the warmest Summer record, at this point we are certainly in good shape to break that one, but we still have about a month and a half to go, which means a lot could happen. In 1933 the mean Summer temperature was 71.3. So far this year we are at 72.8. What is interesting to note is that our temperatures this year have not been as extreme as the 1930s, with multiple days at 100 or above (at least not in Wausau) but it has been persistently warm. Every day so far this July we have experienced high temperatures in the 80s or 90s. I forget what the 70s feel like.

Which brings me back to our “short-term memories”. Just remember that the last time we had a high of 98 in Wausau was 2006. After 2006, high temperatures in the 90s were very sparse. In 2009 we didn’t even get close to 90 in July (85 was the warmest). It wasn’t until last year (2011) when multiple 90 degree days become more prominent again. I also remember back to last year when on first weekend of May, there was still a large ice flow on the bank of the trout stream I was fishing. That is only 14 months ago when we were emerging from an abnormally long & snowy Winter.

For more on how the heat this year compares to past years in the U.S. as a whole check out this graphic.

Of course, it is common sense that the drought is linked to the heat wave, but it is one of those things that science sometimes needs to confirm, and it was confirmed in this recent study.

And going back further in the past, there is more evidence to indicate that the time of the Roman civilization and the Medieval Warm period were warmer than we are experiencing now. This does not mean that AGW is not happening, or at least a part of what is going on now, but it does help put the longer term climate in perspective and help us frame possible challenges going forward.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Heat, Records, Summer

The record-breaking heat wave across the Midwest continues and what makes it even worse is that many areas that are experiencing the heat are also experiencing drought. The lateast U.S. Drought Monitor show at least three-quarters of the country under abnormally dry conditions or worse. Through all my years of following the Drought Monitor, right now is probably the greatest areal extent of drought conditions that I have seen. There have been more extreme droughts in different sections of the country at times, but this is probably the most widespread.

Here in Wisconsin I saw first hand what the drought looks like. I traveled down to the Dells area over the last couple of days and it looked more like California than Wisconsin. This is the time of year when everything should still be green. Unfortunately all the lawns and wild grass areas were brown. There was hardly a blade of green grass to be found in a few spots. The crops that were not being irrigated were taking a beating. The corn was curling up. The soybeans were turning brown. Another week or two of dry weather and a lot of the un-irrigated crops in that area will be a complete loss for the season. Officially Juneau, Adams, Waushara, and Marquette counties are only indicated as abnormally dry, whereas around Dane county and further south there is a moderate drought, but basically south of Wood and Portage counties it is not great for growing things. I feel bad for all the people experiencing the dry weather. I know how difficult it is to start growing something and then have mother nature bail out. We were lucky here in Marathon county to have a nice rain earlier this week. I hope rain becomes more widespread soon, but it is not looking to good.

Will the drought continue? Unfortunately for the southern half of the state, things do not look all that great. The highest chance of rainfall will be tomorrow (Saturday) as a cold front moves through. Otherwise the rain chances look pretty slim through most of next week. The one good thing is that the cold front moving through the area tonight and tomorrow will cool temps down closer to normal for this time of year. High temps will be in the low 80s from Saturday through Wednesday. We just have to make it through today when the heat index will be above 100 again in the southern half of the area.

If you follow our StormTrack9 facebook page you know that we linked to a story about Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) with the question being whether or not this current heat wave is a sign of AGW. This is a good question to ask, and it probably is. Various climate forecasters have called for more extreme weather and more warmth in coming years and decades. One heat wave, drought, or flood, does not make the case, but several in a row with increasing frequency does make the case. We had a record-breaking heat wave last Summer and we have another one this year. This would be evidence that leans in favor of AGW scenarios and theory. For a historical perspective, the current heat does not compare to the 1930s but it is getting a little closer.

In a way, I am glad not too many people or media outlets are carrying the AGW story. Just a few years ago when the AGW discussion was “hot”, it seemed every headline about the weather was about “global warming” destroying the planet. Nearly every single extreme weather event was being blamed on AGW. A strong hurricane? AGW. A drought? AGW. Bee colony collapse disorder? AGW. More asthma? AGW The obesity epidemic? AGW (seriously). It was getting out of hand so much, I had to keep a big list here in the blog of all the things being blamed on AGW. Thankfully, some responsible climatologist must have gotten a hold of weather & science journalists and told them to stop, because single extreme weather events and various maladies of the human condition are not being pegged as frequently to AGW.

However, you should pay attention. If heat waves become more numerous, it is more evidence behind AGW theory. As I have been writing for the last few years, even if you don’t accept AGW theory to any great extent, you should still try to reduce using fossil fuels because they are “dirty” and continue to cause pollution around the world. When it comes too heat waves, geothermal energy is a great low-tech way to go and it is not too expensive if you can do it yourself. The thing about using regular air conditioning is the -while it works great – it adds to the problem of AGW. If the theory is substantially correct, then using the AC (running on electricity form standard fossil fuel power plants) will only cause more heat in the future.

Have a fine Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Drought, Heat, Pollution

The average August temperature in the United States was 3.0 degrees warmer than usual according to recently released climate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Statistics indicate the month of August 2011’s average temperature was 75.7 degrees.   

NOAA is using figures that compare data from years 1901 to 2000.  The numbers are then used to determine the above-average temperatures that have been felt around the country.  A sizeable portion of the United States saw new record warmest recordings for the month of August. 

Data including the full summer indicate an average temperature in the United Statesof 74.5 degrees in 2011.  That puts it 2.4 degrees above what’s usually seen in an average summer. 

A map showing how average August temperatures compared with normal.

Central Wisconsin was noted for having above average temperatures in August along with the majority of the state.  Only two of the nine regions in Wisconsin broken down by NOAA were noted as experiencing near normal temperature readings.

A large section of the southern tier of the United States saw new record warmest readings for August.  All but one region of Texas and New Mexico were among the areas experiencing record heat. 

Problems were also compounded considering the worsening drought situation in the south.  According to the US Drought Monitor “despite record rainfall in parts of the country, drought covered about one-third of the contiguous United States.”   

The figures released on September 8^th also included a laundry list of other notable climate features that have been recently recorded.  Among the most notable is that not one state had monthly average temperatures below the usual values, with only nine titled under the category of being “near-normal.” 

To read the entire story and see the data, follow this link to go to the NOAA page where the information is broken down.

Posted under Drought, Environment, Heat, Nature, Records, Science, Seasonal Items, Summer, Weather History

A couple weeks ago I took another look at the potential of rising sea levels over coming decades and the problems it might pose because so many people live next to the coast. Even if consensus theoretical warming comes to pass, the ocean level might only rise a foot or two, but with so many expensive societal assests so close to the coast, it could be troublemsome.

Not only is there a potential for the sea level to rise, it seems the wind and waves over the ocean have increased over the last two decades. In a sense, it is only the wind measurement that matters as the root cause of increasing waves height since the waves are driven by the wind. Satellite data indicates that the biggest 1 percent of waves have increased from a height of 16 feet to around 19 feet. Refreshingly, the article reviewing this research did not include a foreboding mention of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), perhaps because it is a short study or perhaps because increasing wind is not easily linked to AGW. While it is true that a warmer atmosphere has more energy, it is the contrast in temperatures (warm vs. cold) across the globe that is the ultimate driver of winds. If the atmosphere warms uniformly, then the contrast in temperatures would not change and winds would not be expected to increase.

Something similar it true with precipitation production. The contrast in temperature from the lower levels of the atmosphere (near the ground) to the higher levels of the atmosphere is what drives a lot of cloud and storm production around the world. This provides a vexing problem for climatologists hoping to forecast what amount of precipitation will fall in future years. While warmer air holds more moisture, if the contrast in temperatures from bottom to top through the atmosphere goes down, then there will likely be less precipitation. If you have grown confused by all of the reports that say there will be more rain, or less rain, more droughts, or more floods, this is the root of the confusion.

So far it seems that the “more moisture in the atmosphere” side of the equation is winning out since last year was one of the wettest on record (subscription article). Even though last year was one of the wettest on record, ironically, there is still a lot of worry about drought. This recent research finds that cutting carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere would increase precipitation around the globe and decrease the incidence of drought within a year. If last year was the wettest on record, I am unsure if we would want to increase the amount even more.

In addition, it is highly unlikely that we have such fine control over the atmosphere. There seems to be a bit a hubris in AGW discussions when talking about carbon dioxide levels – as if managing carbon levels was analogous to setting a thermostat. I doubt it is that simple. The earth’s climate has been through great extremes before humans arrived and even during recorded history. The Russian heat wave of 2010 might have been the strongest in 500 years, but it was triggered by known atmospheric processes. If those heat waves become more frequent, then a connection to AGW could be made.

Even the ARKstorm scenario for the west coast of the U.S., while likely to be exacerbated by a warmer world, is not without historical comparison. A major precipitation event struck California way back in 1861 and 1862 and caused the state to go bankrupt.

Have a pleasant Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Flooding, Heat

During the course of blogging about the many issues revolving around weather, climate, pollution, and alternative energy, I often come across the problem of fresh water resources. As is the case with many of contemporary topics, there is a lot of doom-and-gloom about the future of water. Many people have predicted that “water wars” will erupt in the near future as the population of the world increases and possible AGW-related droughts reduce available supplies. Here is a recent article about water in the American West and the Desert Southwest in particular. The research paper paints a scary picture for the American West. The gist of the study is that recent droughts are more the norm than the exception. If you read our weather blog here at WAOW, you already knew this. I have covered the topic a few times in the past. The reality is that the 20th century was one of the wettest on record for the American West. It is much more normal to have multi-year droughts. Some droughts a few centuries ago lasted a couple of decades. The author of the current research remarks – you live in a desert, what do you expect.

As is the case with many other environmental problems, there is positive news to go along with the negative. I have been following the development of hi-tech desalination and the future is bright. One company – Oasys – cliams that their desalination technique is cost competitive and most likely beats traditional methods (dams and canals) of developing and moving drinking water around the western deserts and semi-arid areas. This is significant. Incorporating solar power into the desalination process would make it even better. I expect more and cheaper desalination techniques to arrive in the near future – hopefully in time to prevent major water shortages in the large population centers out west.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Drought, Environment, Technology

The storm has arrived and so far (at the time of this writing), wind gusts have been as high as 44mph in Madison, 48 mph in Oshkosh, 52 mph in Mauston, and 47 mph in Wausau (at 9:19am). A few trees have been reported down in Marinette county Wisconsin and in a couple spots in the U.P. of Michigan. There is still a good possibility that wind gusts could go over 50 mph this afternoon. The wind will continue tonight and tomorrow but I expect the highest wind gusts to occur this afternoon. We will continue to update conditions throughout the day. For the latest, you can follow “StormTrak9″ on Twitter or any of our individual accounts (Justin, Kristen, Brian). You can also follow “StormTrak9″ on Facebook. Additional interesting historical information can be found at the NWS Duluth website.

Also arriving today, as if on cue, “Global Warming to Bring More Intense Storms to Northern Hemisphere in Winter” Is it coincidence that this headline is out today as a near record-breaking storm moves through the Midwest? Maybe. The potential for more intense storms (driven by AGW) has been studied in the past and I have reported these findings in the blog. The theory (condensed version) is that the contrast in temperature between the tropics and the arctic will increase (during the winter) if we experience AGW over the next century. A greater temperature contrast usually means more intense storms in the mid-latitudes. Computer models have now added a little more validity to the theory. However, if AGW happens to a significant extent, the Arctic might warm just as much or more than the tropics. In that scenario, it is harder to see how more intense storms could develop. For reference: My AGW position.

Also arriving today is the perhaps the first “environmental salvo” aimed at the fledgling commercial space tourism industry. Scientists are worried that flights to the edge of space could produce a large amount of soot in the stratosphere. Computer simulations indicate this soot could accelrate any AGW occurring over the next few years. It is a hypothetical scenario but something I am sure Virgin Galactic, SpaceX, and a few others are paying attention to. Private space exploration is a daunting enough task without having to worry about lawsuits from environmental organizations. I hope private space travel is not banned before I have an opportunity to try it out.

As if I haven’t reported enough bad news, AGW could bring more widespread lengthy drought to the developed world.

I hate to end on a depressing note so how about this: the largest solar power plant in the world has been approved for implementation in the U.S. Hooray for the U.S.! This installation had been stalled by environmental regulations (kind-of ironic, eh?) for a good portion of this year. I am glad to see it pass muster, although I am wondering how much political wrangling was going on behind the scenes. For further reading, here is a nice article on the state of solar energy progress in the present day and another about how China (due to low wages and near zero effective environmental regulations) is becoming the solar power leader of the world.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Severe Weather, Storms, Winter Weather