Even though the weather we have experienced since late January is unusual because of the persistent cold and getting even colder (than normal) as time goes by, we still have not broken any records for snow or cold. The length of time that we have had snowcover in Wausau is highly unusual, that is for sure, but the snow amounts with each storm have not been all tha big. The real difference with this Spring and other Springs where we might have seen some snow in April or even May, is that the snow is sticking around. In 2008 we had a few inches of snow between April 8th and April 12th, but it melted within a couple days and we were back to warmer-than-normal temps. This year, there is still no sign of an extended warm-up. The best we will do is get close to 50 today and tomorrow, which is better than nothing.

So is there any record that is about to go down? The most interesting record would be for the coldest month of April. The old record for coldest April in Wausau is 34.0 (average temp) set in 1950. So far this year our average temp is 32.5, so we are on pace to break the record. However, I think we will have enough 40 and 50 degree high temps for the rest of the month to ensure that we don’t end up breaking the all time record. We might end up in the top ten though.

What about snow? We are now up to 75.4 inches of snow for the season. The record is a little over 103 inches, so we have a ways to go on that one. If we get 30 inches of snow yet before Summer arrives, I would be amazed. There is some potential for snow later this week, but it looks like a few inches at the max. The good thing about all the snow is that it should help alleviate the drought. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows most of the state in moderate to severe drought, which is odd, since our precipitation total since January 1st is 7.66 inches, which is a whopping 2.81 inches above normal. I talked to the folks at the Drought Monitor and they said they did not want to remove the drought classifications just yet because they wanted to see how dry the soil was once it thawed. I think it will have a good deal of moisture.

Many people are asking if the cool Spring means a cool Summer as well. It is not necessarily the case that this would happen, although the “hot” March last year was followed by a hot Summer. What we can say for now is that temps will continue to remain below normal for the next week or two, which will almost being us to May. This does not mean it is going to be bitterly cold, just that we are more likely to have high temps in the 40s and 50s, instead of the 50s and 60s. Sometimes the El Nino/La Nina trend can give a clue what might happen a few months into the future, but right now the surface waters in the central Pacific ocean are about neutral and it is expected to stay that way through the early Summer, so neither El Nino or La Nina will be affecting us. Check the latest ENSO discussion here.

Have a fine Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update, Freeze, Records, Winter Weather

There haven’t been a lot of big, wet storms moving through the Rockies and Plains to the Upper Midwest this winter so far.  I guess it shouldn’t be too surprising then that the drought conditions are pretty substantial yet in the western and central part of the county.  The latest drough monitor from January 1st shows drought all the way from southern California to parts of Wisconsin.  The most severe conditions are running from Wyoming to southern Minnesota south all the way to Texas.  In Wisconsin, the driest conditions are over the western portions of the state.  Drought conditions are also impacting an area from southern Alabama northeast up to Virginia.

While a series of storms will slide from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes the the weekend of January 12th, it appears weeks of rather dry weather are lined up after that to finish up January.  As such, the overall strength of the drought is expected to persist across the Rockies and Plains.  There might be some improvement around Wisconsin according to some experts.

You can find much  more information on the drought, soil moisture, precipitation trends, and other interesting statistics by checking out the full drought  monitor page at http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu/monitor.html

Posted under Drought

Snow-lovers rejoice! We ended up with a record 10.9 inches of snow fall in Wausau yesterday (melted down it was a record 0.54 inches of liquid precipitation for December 20th). Much of central Wisconsin had 6 to 10 inches while it was more in the 2 to 4 inch range in the Northwoods. Besides guaranteeing a white Christmas for the area, the snowfall should also help to alleviate drought conditions.

Snow Totals From December 20th

Ok, I know the ground is frozen right now, but the precipitation still counts toward our yearly total and when it melts in the spring it will help raise the water levels. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor does not show any change in our situation for the past week, but I suspect we will see some improvement in coming weeks, especially if we end up with another snowstorm before the end of the month.

Another snowfall will be crucial because yesterday’s snow was probably not enough to get most of the snowmobile trails open. The problem with the snow in Wausau was it’s very dry, powdery, and fluffy nature. We probably need a heavy wetter snow of 4 to 6 inches yet on top of the 10 inches before most of the trails can be opened, and nothing of the sort will be coming in the next week, but perhaps before the end of the year. If we had snow that was more like cement and it piled up to nearly 20 inches, like it did around Madison yesterday, then we would have no trouble with good trail conditions.

CPC Precip Outlook for January

So will snow conditions stay good through the rest of the Winter? The latest CPC monthly outlooks seem to indicate some hope. The projection for January is that there will be a higher chance of above normal precipitation (hopefully it falls as snow!). On the temperature side of things, we are in the “EC” (equal chances) category which means the climate models cannot pin down any heightened chance of below normal, normal, or above normal trend. The climate models do indicate a higher chance of colder than normal weather for the Dakotas and Minnesota. If we don’t get a lot of snow in January, then the rest of the Winter and Spring might not hold out a lot of hope, as the three-month outlook (Jan-Feb-Mar) indicates EC for precipitation and temperatures. The most interesting (and maybe foreboding) aspect of the latest long range monthly outlooks is a higher chance of above normal temps for our area in late Spring and early Summer. If the year starts out warm again and there is not enough rainfall/snowfall, it will exacerbate the drought that is already in place for most of the nation.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Drought

I was expecting that yesterday would be the hottest day of the year. Even though we had quite a bit of moisture in the ground to prevent temps from rising up to 100, I thought we would at least reach 96. Here in Wausau the official high temperature was 94 which makes it a tie for the hottest day of the year. It is also the 4th time this Summer we have hit 94 degrees. There is still a chance we could see temps a little warmer than 94 but the odds go down every day as we now head toward Fall, especially if we continue to have adequate rainfall. If we would happen to have a dry spell in early to mid August, then that would enhance our chance of seeing middle or upper 90s for high temps – not that anyone would really want that. The latest we have ever had 94 degrees or warmer was September 22nd of 1937. The only city in our area that had a record yesterday was Wisconsin Rapids – which ties the old record of 96.

The current hot weather might have you wondering if it will continue into the second half of Summer. For some quidance on the query we can turn to the Climate Prediction Center long range monthly outlooks which were just released yesterday. For August, the computer models are indicating “EC” or equal chances that temps or precipitation will be above or below normal. It doesn’t mean that temps and precipitation will be normal, just that there isn’t any definite trend the models have latched onto to lend confidence to an above or below normal forecast.

The situation is different for the August-September-October 3-month outlook. For this period, the computer models are predicting a greater chance of above normal temps than below normal temps. It is not a guarantee that temps will be above normal, just that the chances are greater for above normal temps. As far as I am concerned, above normal temps during the Fall, especially the early Fall (September and October) is something to really hope for. Fall is my favorite time of year and if 70 degree temps hang on in the football season and Fall color season, it would be awesome.

Another weather tracking update was released today and that is the U.S. Drought Monitor. Almost all year Wisconsin has been 100% drought free…until now. Our area had plenty of rain during the last 10 days but southern Wisconsin has been left out a bit. For the first time this year, part of the state is now indicated as “abnormally dry”. The fraction of the state experiencing dry weather is only 10.03% so that is good news. It is a whole lot better than Texas and Louisiana where some form of drought covers 100% of those states.

With all the talk about heat there is also a lot of talk about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) recently. Here is one of those stories which seems to report common sense – warmer oceans will melt ice faster. The key to this story is that some parts of the ocean might warm up faster than previously thought. Some people are wondering if the warming of the antarctic ocean is leading to the decline in krill populations and thus stress upon Penguin colonies. In this instance, the loss of sea ice might be having an indirect affect on krill populations but more likely explanations are that people are harvesting more krill out of the oceans for supplements and that large krill-eaters like whales are not hunted as much as in the past and are thus putting more pressure upon krill numbers.

Melting ice near the poles of the earth would of course cause ocean’s to rise and many people say it is too late to stop huge impacts  from occurring. The main negative impacts would be along coastal land areas. As I have mentioned before, the rise in ocean levels is not all that bad per se except for the fact that people have built some very expensive assets (houses all the way up to cities) very near the coasts over the last 100 years. As far as other environmental problems go, I am not as worried as some. During the last interglacial period of the earth’s climate the water levels were over 8 meters (over 24 feet) higher than today and the ecosystem survived.

Part of the ecosystem that might be working against any efforts to reduce greenhouse gases from building up in the atmosphere is soil microbes. Recent research reveals that soil microbes might produce more methane and nitrous oxide as the carbon dioxide level of the atmosphere goes up.

Of course, during any discussion of AGW, the subject of reducing emissions always comes up and I often cover alternative energy strategies here in the blog. One particular technology/process I have followed over the last couple of years is that of carbon sequestration. This is where a power plant would send all of its CO2 gas effluent under ground where it would stay “safely” tucked away for years and years. Some pilot programs have begun to determine the viability of carbon capture and storage but it is not looking too good at this point. The problem is that it is not very cost effective. The companies that hhave been involved in the pilot programs suggest that more government money is needed if they are to continue or expand what they have started.

A couple more radical proposals to cut down on carbon dioxide emissions would be to use more wood when building things and to eat lab-grown meat. Building more things with wood would keep more carbon locked up on the surface for many decades. It is a good idea that could take a very small percentage of carbon out of the air. The main problem is that there are not too many applications for wooden structures except homes. With regards to lab-grown meat, yes it would likely be more energy efficient than growing cows, but I am unsure many people would eat it. I don’t think I would have any reservations, as long as the price was right and it was a reasonable facsimile of the real stuff. I think it would be hard to replicate the flavor of natural meat, but the nutrition would still be there.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, CPC Outlook, Drought, Heat, Records

Tony asked about air conditioning use in yesterday’s blog entry. I think I might be the least attached to air conditioning out of all the people I know – at least at home – just ask my wife. We don’t have central air. We only use one window unit for one room in our house. I usually do not turn it on unless the temperature in the house rises up to 80 or above (and it is especially humid). We don’t use air conditioning much in order to save energy and money. Air c0nditioners are huge energy hogs. In fact, as I blogged about a couple weeks ago, newer air conditioners, because they have to use different refrigerants - have a bigger carbon footprint than older models. They are bigger and require more resources to manufacture.

I was thrilled 2 years ago when we only had a few days in the 80s and a couple in the 90s. July of 2009 was particularly cool. It was a rare Summer when I didn’t even put in the window unit air conditioner. I was happy to save a lot of money by not using it. I could probably survive just fine without any air conditioning at home. It helps that I am relatively young. As we age, our bodies have a harder time regulating internal temperature and thus the environmental temperature matters a lot more. Keeping the ambient temperature in a comfortable range (with air conditioning and heating) is crucial.

Work is another matter. As Tony mentioned, our electronic equipment would not work all that well in hotter conditions. It would also be more difficult performing many tasks. Even office work would be uncomfortable if the indoor temperature routinely rose above 80. It is hard to imagine how people got by back in the early 20th century (especially in the southern half of the country) - but they did. Offices and factories used fans and worked at cooler times of the day. I remember a story my Grandpa Schmidt told me about growing up in the 1930s. There were a few years during the 1930s when they had to deal with major heat waves. At times, the high temps would rise above 100 for several days in a row. During these 100 degree days, my Grandpa and his family would do chores in the morning and in the evening and then spend the middle of the day underground in their root cellar/tornado shelter. Along with the hot weather they would also have some significant drought. They had to cut brush to feed the cows because all the grass had burned up. So I guess the moral of the story is we should be thankful for air conditioning, and during times of drought for irrigation and free trade (to maintain crop growth and food supplies). Now if we could only develop some better alternative energy supplies to power our air conditioning. That would be grand!

Speaking of dry weather, the latest US Drought Monitor countiues to show extreme to exceptional drought across the deep south, Texas, and New Mexico. Here in Wisconsin we have been fortunate. There have been a couple periods of dry weather but not enough to change our drought status. The Monitor continues to show Wisconsin 100% drought-free which does not happen very often. If we have some scattered thunderstorms around the state over the next few days (which seems likely) then perhaps the drought-free status will last a while longer.

The main problem over the next few days will be the building heat. High temps will be close to 90 on Saturday and then rise into the low to mid 90s for Sunday and remain in that range for much of next week. With high humidity, the heat index will likely be above 100 degrees for several days in a row.

Have a pleasant Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Heat, Summer

It is that time of week for the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. If I had to gues, I would suspect some parts of Wisconsin slipping into the “abnormally dry” category, just judging by how dusty my garden has been getting in the last couple of weeks. I would be wrong. The official tabulation (made on Tuesday) show Wisconsin 100% drought free. The main determining factor that is probably keeping us out of any drought classification is our yearly precipitation. Here in Wausau and in most cities around the state, our precipitation for the year is still a bit above normal. So even though the weather has been dry in the short term, things are still ok. The worst part of the country drought-wise continues to be the Deep South, Texas, and New Mexico.

Despite what the Drought Monitor syas, much of the area could still use a good soaking sometime soon. Some isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow but a better chance of heaver, more widespread rain will be on Sunday. Sunday will be a very warm and muggy day so there is also a possibility of severe thunderstorms. With all of the outdoor concerts and festivities going on (every Summer weekend) you should keep in mind severe weather safety. Personnel at outdoor events almost always have a severe weather safety plan. Just ask them, and then you will be prepared.

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I don’t cover space news very much nowadays but I was saddened to hear that the James Web Space Telescope (JWST) is now on the chopping block. The JWST was supposed to be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. As is typical within the government, even NASA, cost overruns and delays have been significant. The project has not been cancelled yet, but it is being looked at. I would like to see the new telescope in action. It would have even more capability and be able to look deeper into space that Hubble. It would likely be a boon for scientific discovery. However, word on the street is that it is already billions over budget. The question has to be asked, how many more billions can we afford to spend in this era of insolvent governments.

It is interesting that this news came out during the same week as the final launch of the space shuttle. One might think that NASA will be doing nothing in the near future. This is not the case as they have a lot of exciting unmanned missions planned. However, it is nice to see that private space companies continue make inroads into the space business. The replacment space “vehicle” for the Space Shuttle is being developed by private companies. Virgin Galactic is planning on sending people on short trips to the edge of space. SpaceX even has plans of going to Mars.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Space

As Tony mentioned yesterday, it was sure nice to see the sunshine. I hope you took advantage and stepped outside because it looks like mainly cloudy conditions from today through Sunday. The sunshine on Wednesday helped push the mercury up to 32 degrees officially here in Wausau. It was the first time we have experienced 32 or above since the end of November. It hasn’t been bitterly cold every day since then but temps have been at least 5 degrees below normal on average across the area. Temps should remain near normal (in the 20s) through early next week and then we could end up with some 30s late next week for a warming trend to round out 2010.

January Temp Prediction

Some of that warmer than normal weather could linger into the new year, but for those who don’t like winter too much, don’t get your hopes up too high. The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) long range outlooks indicate a greater chance of below normal temps during the month of January. If you are hoping for an early Spring (like last year), again you might be out of luck. The CPC outlook for January through March indicates a greater chance of below normal temps. You can click through and look at the next 12 months here.

Jan-Feb-Mar Temp Prediction

One interesting thing in the January through March time frame is that the computer models are forecasting a slightly greater chance of above normal precipitation for most of Wisconsin. This would be typical for the La Nina pattern we are in. As of now, it looks like La Nina will gradually weaken over the next few months but not end until late Spring. The next La Nina diagnostic discussion will arrive in early January. If nothing has changed with the La Nina outlook, then I would lean toward a forecast with more snow in the new year and a later Spring than last year.

One nice thing about above average snowfall in the winter is that we don’t have to worry about drought. It doesn’t matte that much during the winter when the ground is frozen, but it is sure nice to get off to a good start in the spring with a nice snowmelt to help recharge the area lakes, rivers, and groundwater. According to the latest US Drought Monitor, the recent snowfall has once again made Wisconsin drought free! What a nice Christmas present from old man winter.

Lastly, you just have to see this time lapse video of the sunset on Mars. I don’t do regular space exploration updates anymore in the blog but I just had to share this one. One thing to note is that JPL did insert some custom frames in order to make the time lapse smooth. It doesn’t make the experience any less real, it only fills in the gaps between actual images taken by the Mars Rover. Special filters on the camera generate the approximate color for the human eye. If you think that is neat, just wait until the Mars Science Laboratory arrives on Mars with its high definition video camera. 

Stay tuned next week for some top ten in 2010 list relating to weather, science, and technology. If you have some suggestion for the biggest weather events of 2010 in Northcentral Wisconsin, let me know in the comment section below.

Have a fun Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under CPC Outlook, Drought, Space

It has been a few weeks since I have focused on the US Drought Monitor (officially updated every week) because the drought was gone from the state, thanks in part to the flooding rain at the end of September. You can probably imagine why I am bringing it up again today. Drought has creeped back into the state. This time it has appeared in the southeastern corner of Wisconsin. It is only in the “abnormally dry” category right now and it is unlikely to get too much worse too fast because it is Winter, a time when precipitation (or lack there-of) does not affect water levels as much as during the Summer. For folks in southeast Wisconsin there is hope a little rain or snow could develop a couple times next week. It doesn’t look like a lot but a little is better than none, unless you are worried about holiday traveling, then even a little could mean trouble. Which brings me to some of the forecast details…

It still looks quite cold for the opening morning of the deer hunting season. Low temps could be near 10 degrees in the northwoods and in the 15 to 20 range in central Wisconsin. There will be a north to northeast wind about 5 to 10 mph – not all that bad but enough that you will feel it. High temps should reach the upper 20s to low 30s during the afternoon on Saturday. On Sunday there is still a 40% chance of freezing drizzle in the morning then a few drops of rain could fall in the afternoon as temps rise into the upper 30s. The wind will be out of the east-southeast around 10 mph.

Next week we could end up with a few light rain or snow showers on Monday and some light snow on Wednesday. If the snow does develop on Wednesday, it looks like there could be an inch or two. What might be of more concern is the possibility of much colder temps for the middle of next week. High temps from Wednesday through Friday will only be in the 20s.

Have a safe hunting weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, forecast

Yesterday I guesstimated that the rainfall total in Wausau would climb above 3 inches and this indeed where we ended up. The rain total at the downtown airport was 3.28 inches. That is a record for September 23rd. The old record was only 1.14 inches. The record rain on Thursday was also the 4th most ever received in any single day in Wausau during September. Other locations in Wood, Portage, and Clark counties received 5 to 6 inches of rain. This caused quite a bit of flooding and road closures. Not much additional rain is on the way but some rivers will continue to rise as water will continue to drain from smaller streams into larger rivers. Some of the worst flooding could occur along the Black River in Black River Falls. The river is projected to reach a stage of 60.2 feet. The record at Black River Falls is 60.19 feet. It is later this weekend that the water levels will fall below flood stage once again.

With the excessive rainfall not only yesterday, but earlier this month the drought conditions have almost disappeared from the state. This week’s US Drought Monitor indicates only a very small part of the northeast corner of the state categorized as “abnormally dry”. The flooding is certainly a bad thing, but in general, the above normal rainfall is welcome. After 8 years in a row of drier than normal weather it looks like we will finally have an above normal year. As of today the 2010 rain total in Wausau is up to 31.92 inches. That is 5.54 inches above normal through this point in the year. Normal annual rainfall is 33.36 inches so all we need is about another inch and a half and we will be above normal for the year. Thankfully we are not going to get that rain anytime soon. We need to dry out a bit. In general, rain chances are looking pretty minimal for the next week or two. Right now I am calling for a few light showers in the northwoods this afternoon, a slight chance of showers Saturday afternoon, and a slight chance of showers on Wednesday. Otherwise the weather is looking dry through the end of next week.

Have a good Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Flooding

The best news in the weather today is that the US Drought Monitor continues to show no areas of severe drought in the state of Wisconsin. This week’s update has not changed since last week, which means there is still a moderate drought listed for the far northeastern corner of the state, but we did get some rain earlier in the week and there is more rain falling today. Rain amounts might end up over an inch, even in the areas still listed under official drought. Here is Wasuau we received nearly 0.79 inches with the first wave of rain that moved through and another wave is likely this afternoon through early evening. The second best news is that this rainfall will keep our yearly precipitation total above normal. During the dry spell in late August, our precipitation total for the year dipped a couple tenths below normal, then we received almost three quarters of an inch on Tuesday and we could get over and inch today. I am rooting for our first above normal year since 2002!

Earlier this week I linked to an article about how NASA/NOAA are using a UAV (the global hawk) to study hurricanes this year and Earl is presenting a very good opportunity to test its abilities. Not only is the robotic aircraft studying Earl, up to 7 other planes are circling the storm and gathering data. Sometimes I muse about how much interest there is in hurricane research in conjunction with how good the forecasts are. The 1 to 2 day forecasts of hurricane track and intensity are already superb (even the 3 to 4 day forecasts are usually very good). More research would probably extend the confidence in the longer range track forecast, but mostly what I think will be gained is more subtle. Hurricane researchers want to understand better how and why hurricanes intensify and weaken. These changes sometimes happen abruptly and unexpectedly. For the latest on Earl check out the NHC website.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Tropics