Last week I wrote one of my periodic “things-might-look-bad-but-progress-continues” blog posts about economic malaise alongside an innovation explosion in the solar industry. In it I mentioned a German company Heliatek making a new organic tinted solar panel. Now they have achieved a record efficiency for dye-sensitized solar cells at 10.7 percent. They are planning a roll-to-roll manufacturing process that will hopefully lead to economically competitive production in the near future. Way to go Heliatek!

In another very recent nugget, and new transparent graphene material dubbed “GraphExeter” (according to this article), could help improve solar panels even further by be a transparent conductor of electricity. The material could go near the top layer of solar panels, let the light through, and conduct more electricity. Could it increase solar panel efficiency by up to 30? We will wait and see.

Ford Focus Electric

If you are an early adopter and are looking for an EV to hook up to your solar panels, check out these recent reviews of the Ford Focus and the Nissan Leaf. One option for charging might be the GE Wattstation. It is certainly stylish, but I always wonder, is it cheap? I suppose, most people that can afford and electric car can also probably afford a Wattstation.

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Just a reminder that the entry period for the snowmelt contest is done. No more entries will be accepted. We are now in the stage of watching and waiting to see when the snow will melt. From what I could see from this weekend, we still have a few days to go. Six people predicted today’s date. Way to take a chance and go out on a limb, but the winning date will not be today.

Have a fine Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

Yesterday I made the case that natural gas is by far the best choice for a bridge fuel during the next few years while we continue to invent a cleaner energy future, after lamenting the fact of the solar industry’s current swoon. It is interesting to note that even though the economic foundation for widescale solar power adoption is shaky (propped up to a big degree by government subsidies) the solar story is still a bright on. Research into improving the efficiency and output of solar panels continues at a fast pace and it is likely that the price of panels will continue to fall in coming years. Even if natural gas is plentiful and cheaper than dirt, there are many reasons for the continued adoption of solar power for our increasingly electrified economic and transportation infrastructure.

Here are some recent stories that caught my eye:

At the University of Tokyo scientists have developed extremely thin solar cells - thinner than spider silk. Such cells, while not being as efficient as their crystalline brethren, could fins their way into many of our small modern day gadgets and sensors.

Other thin solar cell research ongoing at Rice and Tsinghua Universities has created a dye-sensitized solar cell that could theoretically be mass-produced at a fraction of the cost of current cells. This is great news, but the efficiency of these cells is quite low. High efficiency AND low cost is of course the “holy grail”.

Theoretically boosting the efficiency up to a whopping 40% is what is claimed in this recent article about Australian Scientist’s efforts to get more out of every photon. The article is a bit light on details which usually means it is a breakthrough that is years away from mass-production – if ever (in some cases).

The University of California at Berkeley is a bit better at describing their recent developments in an effort to boost the efficiency of solar cells. The key to their finding is that solar cells should emit light as easily as they absorb light in order to reach peak efficiency.

Heliatek Flexible Panels

In the arena of coating plastic or glass with solar cell material, Heliatek in Germany has developed a new technique similar to the technique used to make OLED flat screen display panels. The panels, which could possibly be used to make tinted electricity-generating windows, are rather expensive but they think they can develop a market.

Twin Creeks Solar continues to steam ahead with their vapor deposition method of producing thin solar cells. Their equipment should lower the cost of manufacturing solar cells thus keeping downward pressure on the end-user price. Remember that you read about Twin Creeks solar previously here in the blog.

Japan continues to push hard into renewable energy in order to replace the power they lost after the earth-quake and Fukushima nuclear disaster. Maybe their increased demand will blunt the loss of subsidies out of Europe (at least a little). One of their projects includes a floating solar power plant. I know they do not have a lot of space on the islands, but a floating solar power plant seems to be begging for damage from wind and waves. Hopefully Japan will have better luck with their renewable investments than here in the U.S. It is interesting to note that the U.S. now leads the world in renewable energy investments, but I wonder if we lead in renewable energy installation or even production in recent years due to the bankruptcy of several major government sponsored projects to the tune of billions of dollars.

In a not so revolutionary but still interesting development, Naked Energy of the UK plans to offer a combined solar power and solar water heating device. Heating water with solar power is one of the projects I have been interested in for my own house.

Taken all together, there is certainly still some progress in the solar industry, even as the government funding dries up.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy

When blogging about anthropogenic global warming (AGW), I often mention the tendency for predictions and warnings to be of the worst-case-scenario variety. This has been going on for over two decades in the case of AGW and for much longer when it comes to general environmental apocalypse scenarios. If the science justifies the warning, then I don’t think you could claim this practice is ”crying wolf”, but so may times in the past the science has been wrong, manipulated, or politically motivated. There are also cases where the theory is highly speculative, but drives headlines as if it were closer to reality.

Lest you think I exaggerate, here is a recent article about how the frozen poles of the earth will become very tropical in 300 years - in a scenario termed “hyper-warming” (one of four scenarios in a recent study). If you don’t read past the headline you will not find out that “hyper-warming” is based on the assumption that every last drop (or chunk) of fossil fuel is going to be burned by humans and that the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere will rise to 2000 ppm by 2300.

This is fine for theoretical speculation among climatologists but I would suggest not for consumption by the general public or policy-makers, because it does lead to the “crying wolf” syndrome. The chance of the hyper-warming scenario coming to pass (due to human emissions) are remote – near infitessimal.

First of all, the world already gets nearly 20% of its energy from cleaner alternative energy sources and this percentage increases every year as fossil fuels become more scarce and expensive. It is highly unlikely that humans would continue to use fossil fuels at a greater rate in the future – not when oil is about $100 per barrel. The economics don’t add up.

Secondly, technology continues to advance. Progress is not slowing down. As sure as the sun rises in the east, we will be able to develop more energy efficient modes of societal operation and better alternatives energy sources. Not only will we be able to live cleaner, if the air has too much carbon dioxide, we will likely develop technologies to take that carbon dioxide (and methane, and other “greenhouse” gasses) out of the air. Nature leads the way in this endeavor, so it is not a pipe-dream. Difficult, perhpas, but not impossible.

Thirdly, population growth has leveled off. The population of the earth is not going to rise to 25 billion any time soon, as was once forecast back in the 1970s and 1980s. Some demographers think that the population will not grow much more than 7 billion (based on current lifespan and technology). As a corrollary, if a couple of degrees warming happens, and the environment is already destroyed by 2100 (as has been forecast many times over), then there are certainly not going to be many people around to keep destroying the bio-sphere all the way through 2300.

Fourthly, even in this extremely extremely unlikely scenario, it is not unprecedented. The earth has seen “hyper-warmth” and carbon dioxide levels up around 2000 ppm in the past, and it was not the end of the world. It would be a tough world for humans to adapt to, no doubt, but life would go on.

New Apple Inc. Data Center in North Carolina

Don’t think I am just a polyanna when it comes to “new-fangled technology” either. A person can find many reasons to be optimistic every day. Take this recent article about how IBM is using a large solar installation to help power a data center in India. The solar panels only provide a small fraction of the data center’s energy needs but it is a step in the right direction and reduces pollution over time. More data centers are also setting up ways to use the waste heat that comes from the computer chips and other electronics (and it is about time). In addition, advances in chip, transistor, and server design continue to increase computing efficiency every single year. Some environmental organizations are upset about the amount of energy that data centers use, but data centers (cloud computing, mobile computing, and information technology in general) are the key to further development of cleaner greener technology for the future. Shutting down data centers would be the equivalent of sending society back to the “dark ages”.

Speaking of solar panel installations, even through the current global depression/recession more solar power comes online every year. Long Island New York just switched on one of the larger solar installations in the eastern U.S.

New Erbium-Doped Material from Arizona State Univ.

Those solar panel installation could become more efficient and cheaper in future years due to developments like this: New manufacturing technique could boost the performance of monocrystalline cells from 16-18 percent up to 22-24 percent. Nanoantennas within solar cells could likewise produce dramatic results. Even low efficiency (but cheap) dye-sensitized solar cells are showing signs of recent improvment. What about thin film solar panels? A new polymer could boost their efficiency up to a little over 6 percent. With the addition of erbium, Arizona State researchers have found many solar and lighting technologies could be improved in the near future.

And these are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to recent progress!! I could write a few more paragraphs, but there is only so much time in the day.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Pollution, Technology

The main headline in weather continues to be the potential for a significant winter storm to affect Northcentral Wisconsin on Wednesday. Earlier this morning, I was still holding to a forecast of 2 to 4 inches of snow (mixed with sleet and rain) for much of central Wisconsin and 4 to 6 inches for areas north and west of Marathon county. There is enough moisture with this system that a few spots could end up with 7 or 8 inches of snow.

The latest computer model output indicates a shift in the track of the storm a little bit farther east. We will continue to get updated analyses throughout the day and if this shift is confirmed, it would mean more snow for central Wisconsin and less snow for the northwestern areas, perhaps close to 6 inches for Wausau and only and inch or two around Phillips and Medford. For now I am sticking with the original forecast. Be sure to check Tony’s forecast later today and this evening to get the latest on this evolving storm. In any case, the weather will not be conducive to safe travel on the roadways. In acknowledgement of Winter Weather Awareness Week here in Wisconsin, please leave early for work and school tomorrow and drive slowly. The first snow of the season is typically the one to produce the most accidents.

Also remember that if we have 1 inch of snow or more in Wausau on Wednesday, then it will be the winning date for the first snowfall contest. If the winning date is tomorrow, then we will most likely hold the drawing for the top 4 prizes (R-store gift cards and cash wash coupons) on Friday during Wake-Up Wisconsin.

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On to one of my more favorite topics – alternative energy. I am glad to see more people noticing the acceleration of technological progress. This article (warning, political in nature) comes from Paul Krugman of the New York Times. Many people have argued that Krugman is a very poor economist, but at least he has noticed the dramatic decline in solar energy cost during the last few years. Of course, I was on this case a few years ago already, noting the seeming exponential increase in solar power production and the decrease in cost. Here is an article about the trend as Ray Kurzweil sees it. 

Dye-Sensitized Solar Panels

While progress in solar power and greater cost competitiveness is great, I am afraid Krugman is not factoring in the some of the subsidies that support the industry and the low prices. I have no first hand knowledge of how much government money is used to support the solar industry but I know it has been big in Europe and everyone is claiming China supports their industry with gargantuan amounts of money. The Chinese subsidies are such a sore spot that many solar companies are now trying to sue China based on free trade agreements. Seeing as every country around the world provides some sort-of subsidy for their favorite national industries, I am unsure how far the lawsuit will progress. Even if all the subsidies were stripped away, there would still be progress in coming years, because technology as a whole continues to progress. The mass adoption of solar power and reaching cost parity with traditional fossil fuels might take a couple years longer without subsidies, but the day would still arrive (barring any world-wide disaster).

And of course, to prove the point, here are some recent developments in solar technology:

• The biggest news is that Sharp has broken the world record efficiency for compound solar cells at 36.9 percent. This is not just some “pie-in-the-sky” theoretical lab work. Sharp will be producing this record-breaking solar cell for the world market soon.
• Research into printable dye-sensitized solar cells continues. Researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute for Technology have pushed the efficiency of this type of solar cell up to 12.3%. They claim that if the efficiency can be extended up to 15% then it they will be cost competitive with high-end solar cells.
• Scientists at Argonne National Laboratories and Penn State have devised luminescent solar concentrators that could be used to collect a greater percentage of the suns energy than current concentrators and tracking systems. This research is a bit more “pie-in-the-sky” and is a few years from potential commercialization.
• A significant part of the cost of solar power is in the manufacturing of the solar cells so increased automation and newer techniques all help out with the cost competitiveness. Using optical cavity furnaces could shave up 4% off of the manufacturing cost.
• While recent U.S. government investments in the solar industry have gone bankrupt (as should be expected), there is still a lot of private investment, which has a higher likelihood of success. Here are some solar investments Bill Joy has invested in and a few more thoughts on the industry in general.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology, Winter Weather