Because it has such a big influence on our cold season weather here in Wisconsin, I follow the twists and turns of El Nino and La Nina out in the Pacific ocean. Just last week, the CPC released its monthly diagnostic discussion of the tropical Pacific ocean pattern.

Pacific subsurface heat content is lower

At one point around late Summer and early Fall it had looked like a weak to moderate El Nino could develop for the Winter. Which could have meant well above normal temps and less snowfall for our area. Now it looks like the El Nino will not officially form. The latest analysis indicates a slightly positive (warmer than normal) surface water temperature in the central Pacific and this is expected to slowly return to neutral over the next couple of months. For reference, the temperature has to be at least a half a degree above normal for a few months before an El Nino is officially declared.

So what does this mean for the rest of our Winter? It means there is no major climate signal to hang our hat upon – to give us a good clue as to whether the weather will be warmer or colder than normal – whether precipitation will be above or below normal.

Computer models indicate declining/neutral temps

Thus far, the Winter (first two weeks of December) in Wausau has been well above normal – even ahead of last year when the average temp for December was a whopping 6 degrees above normal! It looks like this milder trend will continue through the middle of next week before we start to see a chance at more colder weather. So December will probably go down as the 10th out of 12 months with above normal temps in 2012. Will it continue? Without El Nino around there is at least a better chance of more normal Winter conditions in January and February. The key thing for enjoying Winter is snow and even if it is mild we could still end up with a good amount of snow. All it takes is a couple of big storms (6 or more inches of snow) and we will be able to open up the snowmobile trails.

Another good thing about heavier snow (even in the absence of cold) is that drought conditions will have a chance to improve. The latest US Drought Monitor indicates most areas of the country, including Wisconsin have not shown any improvement in the last couple of weeks. In fact, drought conditions as a whole have increased over the last month, mainly due to expanding dry conditions in the southeast (although they did have some heavy rain just over the last couple of days). So keep your fingers crossed for more snow, or even rain, even though that is less fun this time of year.

Drought Conditions in Wisconsin

Have a swell Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update

This past summer ocean and atmospheric experts were projecting a weak to moderate El Nino would form in the Tropical Pacific Ocean by early this winter.  However the latest data and predictions say that should not be the case.  The water temperatures in that region have stayed pretty close to normal and the models project it to basically stay that way or perhaps go to weak El Nino conditions this winter. 

When a moderate or strong El Nino is in place there is a strong connection to a warmer and drier than normal winter here in Wisconsin and through the Upper Midwest to Northern Plains region.   Without it’s influence it becomes a lot more difficult to predict months in advance what the winter might hold.  Other climate factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and where a persistent snow cover sets us across North America will have more bearing.  This factors are not predictable beyond about 2 weeks.

Speaking of snow cover, the latest analysis from NOAA on November 14th showed snow covering the ground over much of Canada as well as the Central and Northern Rockies and mountainous areas of the Pacific Northwest.  Also a lobe of snow protruded east as far as northwest Minnesota.  It looks like the heaviest snow cover, up to two feet, was restricted to the higher eleveations out west.  For some reason their analysis showed an inch or so on the ground over much of Wisconsin, which is false.  With a warmer and mainly dry pattern expected in much of the country the next several days, I suspect the snow cover boundaries will shrink leading up to Thanksgiving.

Posted under ENSO Update, forecast, snow, Winter Weather

Once again, this is your last reminder, today is the last day for entering the First Snowfall Contest. If you want a chance at winning some valuable gift cards from the R-stores and some free car wash coupons, you had better go here and enter: http://www.waow.com/category/246942/2012-snow-fall-contest

Because this year has been very warm and dry, I am leaning toward a later date than average for the first snowfall (of course, with the cold pattern right now, maybe there will be an early snow, you never know).

Sub-surface heat content continues to decrease

One thing though, I am not leaning later with my pick because of El Nino. The latest ENSO diagnostic discussion was released yesterday and the CPC notes that the El Nino trend did not strengthen in the last month. It is still a very weak El Nino. It is expected to remain weak or borderline neutral for the next month or two and then slowly fade. That is what the computer models are predicting and that is the CPC official consensus forecast.

What does this mean for ouur Winter forecast. It could be significant. Many of the far-forward looking forecasts from the CPC and other outlets have been predicting warmer than normal weather through the late Fall and Winter for the Northcentral U.S. If El Nino does not form and fades away, then the odds of a warm winter with lower than normal snowfall are decreased. It DOES NOT mean that it is going to be a more normal Winter or a cold and snowy Winter, just that the odds of a warm Winter are reduced.

Computer forecasts indicate a weak El Nino at best.

In the back of my mind I have a feeling that we might have more snow this Winter (than last). It is just a hunch. It seems some of the more extreme weather has been moving around the globe recently. A couple years ago there was a heat wave in Russia and then it seemed the higher heat moved into our hemisphere. Last Winter there was some record-setting cold and snow in eastern Europe. Maybe some of that will move in our direction at some point this Winter. I know snowmobilers would sure like to have more snow this Winter.

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, First Snowfall 2012

Since I was gone last week I didn’t have a chance to blog about the current state of the 2012 drought. The last US Drought Monitor showed significant improvements in the drought intensity across the Ohio valley – thanks to the remnants of hurricane Issac (a fact I alerted everyone to in advance). Many parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana are no longer in the exceptional or extreme drought category. The worst drought continues to be in the plains states from Oklahoma all the way up to southern South Dakota. So there was improvement in the drought over the Ohio Valley but most other parts of the country saw some deterioration.

One of the biggest changes happened right here in Wisconsin. Because of the very dry conditions during the last two weeks of August, the latest drought monitor shows nearly 80% of the state at “abnormally dry” or worse. The situation in the northern half of the state will probably not improve over the coming week because the heaviest rain from the next weather system (moving through late Wednesday into Thursday morning) will probably drop the heaviest amounts of rain in the southern half of the state. If southern Wisconsin ends up with an inch or more of rain, we might finally see the area of extreme drought disappear from the Drought Monitor map.

Will the current drought in much of the nation continue into the Winter? It would certainly be bad news. One year of drought would not have a devastating affect on food supplies and prices but two years of drought in one of the most productive agricultural areas of the earth – the U.S. - probably would. The latest drought outlook from the CPC indicates some continued improvement in the mid section of the country through the end of November.

A Weak El Nino Developing

I hope there is some improvement in the drought situation, but some commentators and forecasters are worried it will remain dry because of the development of El Nino. The latest ENSO forecast discussion indicates that a weak El Nino will develop during the month of September and that a weak to barely moderate El Nino could persist through the first half of the Winter. El Nino conditions over the last 2 to 3 decades have almost always meant drier then normal conditions for the northern half to two thirds of the country as well as warmer than normal temps. El Nino typically brings above normal precipitation to southern California, the Desert Southwest and the Gulf Coast regions of the U.S. The stronger the El Nino the bigger the typical effects, so maybe it is good news that the El Nino is expected to remain on the lighter side.

Computer model outlook for El Nino into the Winter

Even though El Nino is expected to remain on the weak side, this hasn’t stopped a lot of people from prognosticating continued trouble in the U.S. and around the world because of rising food prices. I think is has to do a bit more with human psychology than actual atmospheric conditions. When bad things happen, people naturally expect more bad things to pile up in the future. There is certainly a chance that the drought could continue or intensify through the Winter and into next year, but it is not the most likely outcome, based on a weak El Nino forecast through the first half of Winter.

What is more certain is that food prices DO have an effect on world political stability. A recent study has shown that riots increase when the U.N. food price index rises above 210. It is above 210 right now. Seeing the potential for trouble makes me once again be thankful for free trade around the world. Famines and death are much less likely when people and nations can trade products more freely. If a persistent drought hits one area of the world, there are still many more locations around the world who can help fill the food gap. Modern farming techniques have spread to many areas of the world as well. So while the most advanced land-rich nations of the world (like the U.S.) have the most productive agriculture, other nations are not far behind, and typically grow more food year-over-year.

I have never lived through a prolonged time of food shortage, food riots, or political instability caused by the lack of food. We are lucky here in the U.S. that it hasn’t been much of a problem since the 1930s and even then it seems, most areas of the country remained civil. Then again, back in the 1930s people were more self-reliant and knew how grow food and raise animals for food. Nowadays, less than 2% of the population is engaged in agricultural production. Is that a bad sign? I guess it behooves us to maintain good relations with other countries of the world (in order to preserve an adequate food supply) and to be adequately prepared with at least a little back-up food supply. Without such measures and with persistent drought, things could get bad pretty quick. Science fiction writer Robert Heinlein is purported to have said “after three missed meals, most men are willing to kill for food.”

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update, Natural Disasters, World Weather

Seeing that Tony mentioned some of the effects of El Nino in yesterday’s blog, I figured I should mention that the latest El Nino/La Nina (ENSO) diagnostic discussion was released last week. Not to much has changed in the outlook. The computer models are still indicating a weak to moderate El Nino for this Fall and early Winter. Only one model (the JMA) is forecasting a strong El Nino. A weak El Nino has almost formed already, but many of the atmospheric conditions that go along with El Nino have not developed as of yet. If an El Nino forms, what we could most likely expect for the late Fall and early Winter is warmer than normal temperatures. An El Nino could be bad news for the Midwest as it typically means lower than normal precipitation during the Winter. Check out the computer model forecasts here. Not only could the weather be warmer and drier than normal across the Midwest and much of the U.S. this Winter (because of El Nino), it might be that way across the globe as well. The warmest year on record (according to most statistics anyway) was 1998 when we had a strong El Nino. La Nina has been proven to do the opposite as well – cool the globe.

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And now a follow up to the electric car and battery developments of the past few years. A123 systems seemed like a rising star at one point and I blogged about the battery maker a few years ago. In the intervening years, it started to provide batteries for the Fisker brand of electric sports cars (the Fisker Karma) and it was supposed to provide batteries for the Volt, according to some news outlets. That probably is not going to happen. As I reported earlier this year A123 was having financial trouble. They were heading toward bankruptcy. It seems they are still in bad shape, as the only hope to keep them alive is a possible bailout from a Chinese company. It is kind-of strange, or ironic, or I am not really sure of the term, that A123 was touted and supported by the U.S. government and now it might come under the ownership of a Chinese company.

So what is GM to do? It looks like they are investing hope in a new battery maker – Envia. They are one of the financial backers of the battery company and held a press release about the new better lithium battery just recently. Kind-of old news for everyone who reads the blog. I mentioned Envia’s breakthrough already back in April. Of course, Envia’s product is not yet out of the lab, so GM could be in a bind for a year or two.

Fisker Karma Burning

What about Fisker? They have on of the hottest hybrids on the market in the Karma. They might also have to shop around for a new battery supplier, or they might have trouble staying solvent. Unfortunately, another one of their sports cars went up in flames recently. I feel bad for the engineers who designed such a great car. Safety trouble could be a death knell for the already struggling car company.

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In another follow up, it now appears the UN is also calling for a halt to grain ethanol production in the U.S. As I have written lately, I have my doubts as to the benefits of grain ethanol and the ethanol mandate for gasoline. This issue has been especially crystallized this year with the drought. Burning food while crops burn in the field, doesn’t make too much sense. With advanced and more efficient methods of gasoline production possibly coming online in the near future, ethanol might become and ever expensive option.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, ENSO Update, Technology

A recent study published in the journal Nature, shows a strong link between El Nino and increased air pollution in Indonesia to the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand.  This is because during an El Nino, rainfall is typically lighter than normal in that part of the world.  Farmers in the region thus increase the use of fire to burn and clear the land for agriculture in El Nino years.  The additional pollution is believed to be responsible for as many as 15,000 fatalities in El Nino years.

The study which was conducted jointly by Columbia University and NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies used emissions estimates taken from satellite measurements from 1997 to 2006.  They fed the data into atmospheric chemistry models to plot out air pollution for the region.  

For example during the strong El Nino of 1997, their analysis showed that there was a jump in the amount of fine particles in the atmosphere exceeding World Health Organization standards by 300% for at least 200 days of the year.  Ozone levels, a component of smog,  also increased substantially.  In comparison, during the La Nina episode in 2000, the level of carbon particulates was 98% lower than in 1997.  La Nina provides enhanced rainfall for Indonesia and southeast Asia.

The region is home to over half a billion people.  Furthermore the researchers found that even though most of the burning occurs in rural areas such as Sumatra and Bornea, the impacts are great even well away in large cities such as Singapore and Kuala Lumpur.  Carbon particulates are of most concern, as the are linked to heart disease.  The study concludes of the 15,000 deaths contributed to this fire pollution in El Nino years, around 10,000 would come from carbon exposure, with the ozone responsible for as many as 5,000.  Smog, containing oz0ne is hard on the respiratory system, especially for those with pre-existing conditions.

Posted under Ag Weather, Ecology, Environment, Fire, International Weather, Pollution

If you are sick of the hot temperatures and can’t wait for Fall to arrive, you might have to wait a little longer than normal this year. The CPC has released the latest long range monthly outlooks and the chances are good that above normal temps to continue each month through the end of the year. Anyway, the chance of above normal temps is greater than for below normal temps. One of the keys that might drive warmer temps later this year is El Nino out in the Pacific ocean. An El Nino has not officially formed yet, but it is getting closer. The official forecast calls for a weak El Nino to form during the Fall and early Winter. If an El Nino does form, it is almost a guarantee that we will have warmer than normal temps, on average, this Fall and early Winter. Sure, there will probably be some bouts of colder weather, but the way things are going, I doubt any cool trend would last too long. Fall is my favorite time of year so I almost always enjoy warmer than normal temps during that time of year. Most people would enjoy a mild winter as well, but it would be bad for Winter enthusiasts to have two years in a row with mild temps and little snowfall.

CPC August Temp Outlook

Overall, the CPC outlooks do not put us back into the equal chances for above or below normal temps until the May-June–July period of next year. Of course, by that time the skill of the long range computer models is much less. I would put much more stock in the forecast for next month.

Could we see 90 degrees in October? I doubt it, but given the drought this year in much of the nation, this would be the year it might happen, again. It has only happened one other year in Wausau’s history and that was 1976. If you are old enough, you probably remember a severe drought happened that year as well. It was the record lowest annual precipitation in fact, in Wausau. The high temperature on October first of 1976 was a record 91.

Drought conditions through June for the last 116 years

Whether or not we have have some 90 degree temps heading into Fall is highly dependent on the drought situation. Things have improved a bit in southern Wisconsin and southern Minnesota recently, but it is still extremely dry in much of the Midwest and Plains States. Many people have been wondering if this year is the most widespread drought or the hottest temps we have seen in much of the nation. I analyzed the situation in Wausau in this past blog post, and we are on pace to record the warmest July and warmest Summer. We might eclipse the records that were set back in 1936. For the rest of the nation, here is a neat graphic showing the extent of drought conditions during June for the past 116 years. It is natural to focus on the worst years, but I also used the graphic to see the “best” years when it comes to rainfall. It seems 1993, 1983, 1975, and 1907 were the years that had the least drought through June. One other thing I noticed is that the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic regions of the country seem to have the lowest frequency of drought overall. Keep in mind, this graphic is depicting drought conditions through June. During some of these years, the drought condition turned better or worse during the second half of the year.

Have a swell Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under CPC Outlook, Drought, ENSO Update

The heat wave ended with a bang last Friday night as a supercell thunderstorm rumbled across Oneida county. It had all the ingredients and elements necessary to form a tornado and many people saw the low swirling and rotating clouds, but we lucked out. A tornado did not form. It was a close call also because it traveled right over the city of Rhinelander. The good news is that there was more rain in the Northwoods. The bad news is that rain missed the southern part of the area.

Thankfully, the heat has abated, but not before we had a few records. Last week was the first time in a while that we had several locations hit 100 degrees (mainly south of Marathon county). Here in Wausauwe broke a record high on the fourth when the temperature hit 96.

Rhinelander Supercell Thunderstorm in the Distance, Picture by Debi Oswald

96 was good enough to tie a record on the 5th, but did not quite break a record on the 6th. Still, three days in a row with a high of 96 is remarkable. We also had 5 days in a row when the temperature hit 90, which means…..Tony has won our office forecasting contest, along with Trav of the Big Cheese Morning Show on 107.9. They both predicted 5 days of 90 degree weather during the month of July. We might have more before the month is out but our rules are whoever is closest wins, and since nobody went over 5, they are the winners.

We will have more warm weather for the rest of this year? I addressed this question in an earlier blog entry. People were wondering if a warm March would lead to a hot Summer. So far this has been the case. What about the Fall and early Winter? For that we can turn to the latest ENSO discussion. This is the diagnostic discussion that collates all of the El Nino and La Nina data and gives general guidance for what trends we can expect as we head into the next few months.

Pacific Ocean Upper Heat Content

The latest set of data indicates an increased chance of at least a weak El Nino forming over the next couple of months and persisting into early Winter. An El Nino has not formed yet but if you click on the figures in the discussion you will notice a lot of the graphs turning orange (which indicates warmer temperatures). The computer models are still a little iffy on when or how strong of an El Nino there might be, but the chances are getting better it will form.

If El Nino would happen to form, it is almost a gaurantee that our warmer than normal temps will continue into the first part of winter (based on the last few El Ninos during the last couple of decades). Warmer than normal temps typically mean not as good of snow conditions as well, however, it only takes one or two big snowstorms to make a “good” Winter. It can’t be as bad as last Winter when we had the snowmobile trails open – barely - for a few days in central Wisconsin and some didn’t open at all. I suppose it could be worse, if the lakes didn’t freeze over. I don’t even want to think about the possibility.

Have a swell Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, Heat, Records

Sea Surface Temps in May

For those of you that always keep an eye on the long term forecast, one of the biggest clues to where things are headed is the state of the ENSO (El Nino & La Nina) in the central/tropical Pacific. The Climate Prediction Center monitors the trend and issues an in-depth monthly discussion on what is happening.

The latest ENSO discussion has been issued and it looks like there is a chance that a weak El Nino could develop later this year. The CPC is saying it is equally likely that El Nino could form or that the ocean surface temps remain neutral. Why is this important? If an El Nino forms, we would most likely have a warmer than normal Winter. Almost every Winter for the last couple of decades with an El Nino pattern in the Pacific has led to warmer than normal temperatures and less snow than normal. The stronger the El Nino is, the warmer the Winter has been - typically.

Computer Model Forecast

You can view the computer model output here. Of course, the models were run in May and May is a long time from December, so you have to be a bit cautious with the forecast this early in the year. Also, unfortunately, the average computer forecast has not improved much over the last decade. What are called the “dynamical” forecasts have improved slightly, but there has not been any improvement elsewhere since the decade of the 1990s (according to a recent paper in the bulletin of the American Meteorological society).

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update

Before getting into any other subjects, I should bring everyone up to date on the latest El Nino/La Nina trend, which is one of the  more important ocean/atmosphere circulations we monitor. The latest ENSO diagnostic discussion indicates that the La Nina from this past Winter has ended. The central Pacific ocean surface temperatures are now basically neutral and are expected to stay that way for the next couple of months. By this Fall the computer model forecasts indicate a trend toward a weak El Nino. This is important. Almost every time we have an El Nino in the tropical Pacific we have warmer than normal Winter conditions here in Wisconsin and lower than normal snowfall.

CPC Model Projection

The stronger the El Nino, the warmer our Winter could be. Right now it looks like a weak El Nino will form at best, but it is early in the year, so there could be some notable changes yet before Fall arrives.

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And now a little follow-up on a subject that was much more prevalent last year but many people seem to have forgot about. As has been mentioned in many outlets outside of the mainstream media, the Fukushima nuclear disaster is not over and it is worse than thought. Spent fuel pools (as well as other parts of the reactor) are a grave danger to the U.S. according to at least one Senator who visited the site.

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In another follow-up, I sometimes bring a bevy of news and research that shows things are not as bad as originally portrayed, either for the present or into the future. Last year I blogged about how the trash in the Pacific is not as bad as originally reported. Now this year we have a finding that declares the trash in the ocean could be significant, just not in the way we might have thought in the past. A oceanographer researching in the Pacific found a lot of small particles of plastic a bit below the surface. These types of particles would normally float on the surface and be visible but wave and wind action drives them a few feet below the surface. Past surveys of ocean garbage generally only skimmed the surface water. Smaller particles could more easily find their way into the food chain and cause some disruptions. What is not know is whether these particles are all over the ocean. Maybe they are only in certain areas near manufacturing centers or shipping lanes, such as southeast Asia.

Also, in the not-as-bad-as-originally-proclaimed theme, during the past couple decades the AGW discussion has been peppered with proclamations about “increased storminess”, “more hurricanes”, “more floods”, even more tornadoes. In the case of tornadoes, every time there is a big outbreak, someone usually speculates as to whether the seemingly increasing number of tornadoes is due to AGW. In another, maybe it is not as bad as originally portrayed, the case for tornadoes is not clear cut. There are many factors in the atmosphere that have to be “just right” and these factors might not all come together to produce more tornadoes in the future even if we end up with some theoretical ranges in warming from AGW.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, ENSO Update, Environment, Oceans, Tornadoes