As more air pollution has developed in Wisconsin over the last few years, I have become more of an advocate of electric cars. (Aside: on average pollution of all forms in the U.S. is much less than the middle of last century). One of the main criticism of electric vehicles (EVs) is that they are just “coal cars” since most of the electricity that fuels them will come from coal-fired power plants. I have argued that even though the electricity might come from a coal-fired power plant, the delivery mechanism and pollution control measures inherent in the operation of EVs are much more efficient than with comparable fossil fuel transportation infrastructure. It is much easier to control pollution from one smoke stack at a power plant than from millions of tiny “smoke stacks” (tail pipes) attached to internal combustion engines. Of course, I haven’t had the time or resources to do an official study.

Pollution Problems in China

The headline from a recent study claiming that EV’s DO NOT reduce pollution had me a little worried. After I read a little more into it, I found that the study was in China and that makes a huge difference. What happens in China is probably not applicable to EV operation in other parts of the world. First of all, they probably do not have as good of pollution control at their power plants. They have “official” regulations of course, but many observers report that these regulations are rarely followed. Judging by the air pollution pictures out of China, I would say they are correct. Also, China gets most of its power from coal. This is not the case in many other countries. The U.S. does have a heavy reliance on coal but the use of natural gas is increasing. Natural gas power plants have much less pollution, so on average, the EV/pollution study would probably turn out much better here.

Then of course there are people who charge their EVs with wind and solar power which causes even less pollution. I would be negligent if I didn’t also mention that EVs require much less maintenance and do not create as much noise pollution. So EVs might not be the perfect solution – right now – but there is certainly promise for the future. I would like to buy one but the price is still too far out of my range.

The Tesla Model X

Price is the hurdle that is keeping Tesla motors on edge in recent months. Is the luxury electric car market big enough to keep them solvent. This recent article looks into the question. Tesla was of course one of the companies that benefited from the boom in clean energy investment that occurred during the first decade of this century. That boom has now went bust and here is a long article about the rise and fall. One thing I noticed is that when the U.S. government got heavily involved after 2008 is when things started falling apart for many companies. It is often said that government money in the form of loans and grants distorts the economics of the situation, creates bad incentives, and drowns out the signals from the free market. It seems it happened with much of the “green” investment as well.

The biggest losers, as I expected are biofuel companies. It is not that they didn’t have unique ideas or wonderful products, it is just that they could not scale up and compete with cheap natural gas, government supported grain ethanol, or the motivation of the solar/EV crowd. Biofuels could still have a place during our transition to cleaner energy future, but it probably is not a good long-term solution.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

Before delving into the possible snowstorm for tomorrow in our area, I want to first look back to yesterday when we had some record high temps in the area. What is most interesting about hitting some record highs yesterday is that it is the first time we had record highs in our area this Winter. Since November we have experienced many days with highs in the 40s and there have been hundreds of new daily records in other parts of the country, yet hardly any in our area. Yesterday it was finally our turn. Here is a list of record high temps that were broken or tied:

1. Wausau 47 (old record 44)
2. Wisconsin Rapids 50 (old record 46)
3. Antigo 43 (old record 42)
4. Merrill 45 (old record 44
5. Marshfield 51 (old record 44)
6. Rhinelander 44 (old record 44)

A couple more record highs could fall today as high temps will reach the 40 degree mark and if we have enough hazy sunshine during the morning some spots could reach the low to mid 40s. The record high here in Wausau for January 11th is 43.

Preliminary Snow Potential for Tonight & Thursday

As far as records go, we could break another record tomorrow. Surprisingly, the record snowfall for January 12th in Wausau is only 3.7 inches which was set back in 1972. The snowstorm moving into the area tomorrow will likely produce a couple inches of snow at a minimum and I am officially forecasting 2 to 5 inches for most of the viewing area, so the record could go down in Wausau. The potential for heavier snow will exist close to the Great Lakes where some lake effect or lake enhanced snow could mix in with the regular storm system snow. In the far north (Vilas, Iron, and Forest counties) and in the far east (Menominee, Shawano, Waushara, and Waupaca counties) the snow totals could end up in the 5 to 9 inch range. The lake effect snow will also likely last longer into Thursday night and Friday morning in the far north. As of now it doesn’t look like a BIG snowstorm, but it will be enough to cause trouble on the roadways and enough that you will have to get your snow shovel out to clear the driveway and sidewalk.

NAM computer model snow prediction

***Late morning update: At least one computer model is still indicating the potential for 5 or more inches of snow for much of the area. The image here is from this morning’s run of the model. The green area on the image indicates total snow accumulation of 5.0 to 7.5 inches from tonight through Thursday night. This is only one of several (NCEP and international) computer models we rely upon nowadays so it is not the absolute gospel of what will develop for tomorrow, but it makes me lean more toward the 5 inches of my 2 to 5 inch prediction for this storm system. An internal model we run here at the TV station is projecting ab0out 4.5 inches for Wausau. Once again, be careful on the roadways tonight and tomorrow. We haven’t had too much practice driving in bad conditions so far this Winter.

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In the continuing story of the modern transformation of our energy and transportation infrastructure, the auto shows always bring a lot of excitement. In recent years, all of the hype has surrounded hybrid and electric vehicles. I suppose this is because auto shows are about the future and not the past, right? In reality, hybrids and electric cars are still a tiny fraction of the cars on the road today. The share of internal combustion driven vehicles has continued to increase in the last couple of years. This has prompted at least one commentator to say that EVs “don’t matter”. That might be true on the road TODAY but with persistent $100 per barrel oil, increasing smog levels in many cities, and more attention on efficiency, the future still seems bright for EVs.

One of the biggest announcements from the Detroit Auto Show (going on right now) is the unveiling of the Ford Fusion Energi. It is claimed to get the energy equivalent of 100 mpg. The only thing not known thus far is how far can it go on a charge and how much does it cost (my $main$ concern). Here is a picture gallery of some of the other concept cars, EVs, and hybrids debuting at the Detroit auto show. Out of all the EVs, the Nissan leaf seems to be doing the best so far. It isn’t the cheapest, but neither is it the most expensive EV available. It seems to have the biggest foot-hold in the overall EV market (not counting hybrids).

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Lastly a follow up on the the fracking cost-benefit discussion I broached in the blog earlier this week. British scientists claim that the risks posed by fracking are being exaggerated. They say that the “frackquakes” are nothing different that what would be seen from regular mining operations such as for coal. My argument was that even if there are some risks it might still be worth it to use natural gas as a bridge fuel toward future alternative energy because it is cleaner and emits less carbon dioxide per BTU.

Have a fine Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Records, Technology, Winter Weather

It is that time of the month again for the all-important super-exciting ENSO update. Ok, maybe it is only super-exciting for a weather nerd like me, but it is still important as La Nina and El Nino do have significant effects on our weather. So what has changed in the past month? No Much. The La Nina (colder than normal surface water in the central Pacific) is still there and it is still of moderate strength. It will likely remain moderate through the rest of this month and perhaps into part of January. After January, the majority of the computer models indicate that it will weaken and perhaps fade away (go neutral) by the time we reach April or May.

CPC Computer Forecasts

It is interesting to note that the one computer model that has been the most accurate over the last few months, and which the CPC has leaned upon quite heavily in their forecasts, is one of the models that predicts La Nina will stick around into the Spring AND early Summer. It is the NCEP CFS model and is represented by the purple-ish solid-colored squares on the computer model graph.

My hunch is that La Nina will weaken as the consensus of the models indicates. I base this hunch upon the graph that shows the heat content of the subsurface water in the central Pacific. It is the surface water temperature that defines and drives weather changes associated with El Nino and La Nina, but I have found through the years that the subsurface temps tend to lead the surface temps. The subsurface has already started to turn a little warmer than last month. If this trend continues then we should see an end of La Nina by late Winter or early Spring.

Sub Surface Heat Content

What does this mean for our Winter forecast? A moderate to strong La Nina can often mean a longer colder, snowier Winter for us here in the Upper Midwest (but not always). The forecast for La Nina this Winter did prompt some forecasters and perhaps the Farmer’s Almanac to forecast extremely harsh Winter conditions for our part of the country, including heavy snow and bitter cold. It hasn’t happened thus far. It won’t happen for the next few days, and I doubt it will happen – IN GENERAL. I still think we will end up with a fairly normal Wisconsin Winter, with temps a little below normal and snowfall a bit above. This means there will be spells of snowy weather and below zero temps (as we should expect), but I wouldn’t term it as “brutal”, “harsh”, or “extreme”.

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On to a different subject. In the discussion about how anthropogenic global warming (AGW, aka “climate change”) will progress over the next century it is often assumed that developing countries will produce ever increasing amounts of carbon dioxide emissions. But is this assumption valid? I have heard many people claim that automobile use will continue to climb and roads will expand (in developing countries), just like it happened in the U.S. I would argue that the U.S. is a special case and it is not guaranteed that every other country on the globe will end up with highways and sprawling urban environmental disasters like we have in the U.S. In the U.S. we were fortunate enough to have a lot of space and access to cheap oil for many of decades. This is not the case for most developing countries. How many people expect oil to return to $20 a barrel anytime soon? How many people think India has the room to build as many roads and suburbs as the U.S.? Not many, I venture. China is already choking on wicked pollution. Adding more cars will only ensure that the population declines from disease a lot faster than most people expect. My feeling is that developing countries will develop more efficient energy/economy models. They won’t fall in love with cars to the degree that we have in the U.S. It doesn’t mean that we don’t have to worry about pollution or our affect on the atmosphere, just that the worst case disaster scenarios might be a tad over-stated.

Something that could help in running economies more efficiently right now is rail traffic. A recent study out of UW-Madison has shown that air pollution could be reduced a significant percentage if we moved more things by train. It takes a gallon of diesel fuel to move 1 ton of cargo 150 miles by truck. By train, the same gallon of diesel fuel can take 1 ton of cargo 400 miles! Having trains available for human transportation would be great as well, however, here in the U.S. we are “behind the eight ball” because there is so much highway and other auto-supporting infrastructure in the way.

Natural Gas Car, Honda Civic GX

The next best thing to save energy in the U.S. and lower pollution would be to use more electric vehicles and use self-driving cars. Using computers and software, electric vehicles (with some auto-pilot capability) could make road traffic more clean and efficient. A group of cars could travel together on the highway almost like a train and its boxcars move on the rails. Electric and hybrid cars sure stole the show at the recent Tokyo auto show. In other clean car news, the Honda Civic GX (natural gas fuel) has won the “Green Car of the Year” award once again.

The one main criticism of electric vehicles is that they are essentially “coal cars” because we get most of our electricity from coal-fired power plants. This is changing. Many of the early adopters are going totally off the grid for their electric cars, buying and installing their own solar car charging ports at their homes.

Progress Continues!

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, ENSO Update, Technology

While checking events on this date in history I was interested to see that on November 16th way back in 1901, a new speed record for electric cars was set during a race in New York, with the Riker Torpedo Racer. As you know, I am excited to switch over to electric cars (once they fall to within a price range I can afford). It is unfortunate that the electric cars from over a century ago did not gain a foothold in the market place. If they had, maybe the technology would be mature by now. But I don’t completely blame the oil industry. I know there is some evidence that government colluded with big business back in those days to promote the internal combustion engine, but it also made economic sense. Batteries were a relatively new technology and they were huge – weighing over 800 pounds in the early models over a century ago. The cars could not go very far. Cheap oil  (and gas) made a lot of sense because of the high energy density. People could travel a few hundred miles on a tank of gas, while they could only go a few miles on battery power. We might be better off, environmentally speaking, if electric vehicles had gained more support back in the day, but gas and internal combustion engines made a lot more economic sense for many decades.

I don’t think “gas-mobiles” make as much sense nowadays. They are still useful and our (American) society is very deeply reliant on them, but the fuel is getting more scarce, the prices are getting higher, and there is too much pollution (air pollution, water pollution, noise pollution, etc…). Alternative energy and electric vehicles are certainly expensive as well, but I am happy to see them gaining a foothold.

T.27 City Car

Gordon Murray of Formula 1 fame is gaining a foothold in the EV market. His T.27 electric car recently won the Future Car Challenge. Obviously, this is not a car meant for long hauls with a family of 4 across the country, but it would be perfect for city driving. I only drive 3 miles to work, about 5 miles to major shopping centers, and 10 miles to the in-laws out in the country. This car would work for me as long as the price is right. The good news is that this car should be one of the cheaper models to come along, not only because it is small, but because Murray redesigned the manufacturing process as well. He started from scratch and developed a manufacturing process that should “beat the pants off” of traditional car manufacturing. As is typical, it will probably take years before this car is available in the U.S. Sigh.

Of course, I can’t write about electric car progress without also seeing what is going on in battery technology. Batteries are the ultimate key to making electric cars more practical for a larger percentage of the population. The most dramatic battery research as of late heralds from Northwestern University. Scientists have described new anode and cathode technology that could improve the power density and charge times of lithium ion batteries by an order of magnitude (10 times greater). This research is in very early stages, but is quite exciting. Increasing the energy parameters of lithium batteries by a factor of ten could really revolutionize the industry.

Toyota Prius C

Progress continues in small steps as well. Toyota has unveiled a new model of the Prius named ”Aqua”, or “Prius C”. It is approximately 7% more fuel efficient than past models. That doesn’t sound like much, but it is progress in the right direction. I’ll 7% more “energy” mileage any day.

Speaking of hybrids, electricity and gas are not the only game in town. UPS and Chrysler are now experimenting with hydraulic hybrid vehicles. The hydraulics come into play during regenerative breaking. Instead of charging a battery through braking, a fluid is compressed. This fluid pressure is then released and used to propel the vehicle when it starts moving again. Hydraulic systems such as this can capture up to 75 percent of the braking energy. This is about double what electric systems can deliver. For buses and delivery trucks (that brake a lot) this type of system could make a lot of economical sense until battery technology improves.

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Lastly an update on the weekend hunting forecast. It is looking more likely that the highest chance of rain will hold off until the afternoon on Saturday and be heaviest in the northern half of the area. By heavy, I mean a tenth of an inch ortwo of rain, so not that bad. If the rain does mix with snow in the far north, there could be a couple of inches. So it could be dry and mild for much of the morning on Saturday.

A few flurries or snow showers will likely be flying in the air Sunday morning, but I doubt there will be much accumulation. The main concern on Sunday will be a gusty west-northwest wind in the morning and cold temps. After highs in the 40s on Saturday, it will only be in the 30s on Sunday.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Pollution, Technology

While discussing the secondary effects of fossil fuel usage yesterday, I mentioned some possible technological fixes for pollution and environmental problems. I monitor new developments closely because it is important to remind people that progress is occurring. Judging by all of the bad news lately (Drought in the Amazon, dwindling Arctic ice, less ozone, missing penguins, coral reefs dying ) you might be inclined to give up hope. Don’t. Even through all the turmoil, progress continues. Each new process, each new invention, each new tool represents the potential for a better tomorrow.

So how are things going lately? On the energy front, one thing that would help the transition from a liquid hydrocarbon economy to an electrified one would be better batteries. In that regard progress continues with researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, using nano-electrodes to produce faster charging batteries. One knock on electric vehicles is that they take a long time to charge. This advance could trim the time from hours to just minutes.

For electricity to charge up those batteries, how about a floating solar power array? India in cooperation with the Autralian company Sunengy will be giving the concept a go shortly. The main advantage to using floating solar panels is that you don’t need to find space on land (and pay rent/taxes – usually). Also, this particular solar concentrator design can be cooled by the water it floats upon and thus should be cheaper than land-based set-ups which need special cooling equipment. The first problem that cropped up in my head was stormy weather. How will this floating array hold up? The inventors say it can be lowered beneath the water during storms or high winds. That would work, but being in or near water tends to corrode mechanical and electrical devices. It will be interesting to see if this solar array desing can stand up to the elements.

Even land-based thermal solar plants might get an upgrade in the near future. They would be more efficient if they could operate at a higher temperature. Siemens is investigating the use of high temperature salts to reduce the cost and increase the efficiency of trough-based thermal solar power plants.

Something I have been wondering about alternative energy for a while now is whether power companies will exploit the gas emitted from landfills to generate electricity. Well, wonder no more. Ameresco Inc. is developing a methane gas landfill power plant in California. It is just a pilot effort, but if it works, there are certainly a lot of landfills across the country that could be producing power.

Even the extraction of the oft-hated liquid hydrocarbons could be done more effciently with the help of solar power. Steam is needed for the extraction of heavy oil and using solar power to create the steam could save on cost. That is the hopes of Glass Point Solar. They are testing the method in Kern county, California.

These and many other hundreds of small advancements happen every day and will hopefully help create a cleaner and mor

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

If I was out Black Friday shopping today I would be looking for the 50% off deal on electric vehicles. What?! No dealerships in the area. Sadly, the Wisconsin market will likely be one of the last to see a wide selection of plug-in cars. If you want to buy one you will have to look a little farther…or wait. Besides limited distribution markets, most electric vehicles have run into production delays. Don’t worry, if you are hoping to spread your silent (because EVs are quieter than gas-guzzlers) green wings in the near future, things are still looking pretty good for the EV market.

One of the under-reported stumbling blocks for EV adoption is charging capability. Plugging the car into a regular household socket will work, but it is not optimal. If you want fast charging capability at your house you have to get a special electric outlet set-up and even then, your utility might grumble a bit. Another solution is for charging stations or battery swap stations to be set-up around the city, just like gas stations. Project Better Place is testing the battery swap idea in a few spots and a couple cities in the country are doling out some money for thousands of charging stations. The two that have announced big plans thus far are Detroit and Houston. Houston could use a large fleet of EVs to reduce its infamous worst-air-pollution-in-the-nation status. Detroit had better spend some dough on EVs, considering the billions and billions of dollars in bailout money that landed in their lap.

By the way, the Ford Focus electric version is expected to arrive in late 2011. It is estimated to have a 100 mile per charge range. The Nissan leaf has already arrived and tests indicate its range is about 73 miles. Nissan was hoping for 100 miles but real world driving tests put more load on the batteries and reduce the range. 73 miles is pretty good, but it is not enough to get me home (the Chippewa Valley) or to a Packer game (Green Bay) on one charge. Both places are about 90 miles away.

A reminder: tune in to Wake-Up Wisconsin on Monday and Tuesday of next week to find out who will receive the big R-store prizes for predicting the winning date of the First Snowfall Contest (we had 1.5 inches of snow on Wednesday).

Have a fun black Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

How many times have you heard “it is not the heat, its the humidity”, when describing Wisconsin Summer weather? Welcome to what could be our warmest week of the year. If it is not the warmest then it will be the most uncomfortable as the humidity will remain very high through Saturday morning. If the sun comes out for any lengthy period of time then high temps could top 90. Otherwise high temps will be in the mid to upper 80s each day this week. Wednesday is the one day that could be slightly cooler as there is a higher chance of thunderstorms.

At least it is not as hot as Moscow, Russia. Kristen mentioned the heat wave in the blog over the weekend. If you just look at the high temps (can be found at weatherunderground), it looks like a heat wave that might occur somewhere in the Midwest of the U.S. each year. High temps have been above 90 for the last 2 weeks (except for 1 day in the 80s). On two different days during this spell, the mercury has hit 100. What makes this heat wave exceptional is that Moscow is much farther north than the continental U.S. (where we might expect readings like this each year in some spots). It is almost as far north as Juneau, Alaska. The average high temperature in Moscow during late July and early August is 75. As a comparison, in Wausau, the average high temperature this time of year is 81. Take a look here for some other world records. I hope we are not in line for a major heat wave, but I am a little nervous about it because it has been a long time since the last official 100 degree reading in Wausau – July 13th 1995. Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) theorists predict that heat waves will become more common in years to come.

On a slightly different subject, but under the same general theme (as AGW) – the Volt. When GM first announced the concept a few years ago and before they were owned by the government, I was very interested to see how it would develop. I entertained the thought of buying one (or any electric vehicle for that matter). When the price tag was announced, I realized it would be way out of my league. Being a libertarian kind-of person, when more and more taxpayer money poured into the company (GM), it soured my opinion a little more. I still hope for success for the Volt and electric cars in general, but I hope it doesn’t come at too the expense of society at large. On that note, I thought I would share this opinion article about the topic - which includes some interesting history from Volkswagen and Germany. I will note that the article comes from a ”conservative” columnist, so take that into account. Still, I thought it was thought-provoking enough to share.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Heat