It is Thursday so time for a US Drought Monitor update. As you could have guessed, no change in the drought conditions here in Wisconsin. We are still experiencing drought in the northern third of the state and this is unlikely to disappear anytime soon.

No change in WI drought

The weather has been drier than normal since the beginning of the year and it looks like it will continue that way for the next 7 to 10 days at least. At this point it looks like the next big storm moving from west to east across the nation will stay to our south on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. When the next big snow or rain storm will hit Northcentral Wisconsin is still up in the air. I have got my fingers crossed for some heavy precipitation this Spring. Drought during the winter does not matter much. Drought during the growing season can bring a lot of grief.

Since almost nothing is happening in the weather I might as well turn to some of my other favorite blog subjects – such as space travel.

In a follow up on the attempt to revive or at least converse with the Mars Phoenix lander, NASA folks have begun listening once again for any signs of life. The attempt began in January, but was unsuccessful. The martian sun is now higher in the sky and the temps are getting warmer so mission planners are trying again. It is unlikely that the Phoenix will “rise from the ashes” or should I say “frost”, but it would be interesting if it started operating again. Besides conducting some additional experiments, engineers could figure out which parts survived and which parts broke during the cold martian winter.

The Phoenix lander might be down for the count but another mission keeps producing interesting data. The Cassini mission to Saturn has revealed some cool new pictures of the moon Encaledus and has detected more signs of liquid water and chemicals needed for life as we know it. It is amazing that just a few years ago, Enceladus was considered a dead lifeless ball of ice and rock. Now astro-biologists think there is a chance (remote as it might be) that life could form in such an environment.

Another moon of Saturn has gotten a close up examination by Cassini. It is the moon Minas. It is a peculiar moon that has a large impact crater that makes it look like and “eyeball”. Minas is not as dynamic as Enceladus but it does hold one mystery. Why wasn’t it blown apart by the huge meteor impact? The crater on Minas is one-third the diameter of the entire moon. Many astronomers expect that such an impact should have blown the moon to “smithereens”. I can’t imagine there would be much left of the earth if it was struck by something large enough to create a crater one-third the diameter of the planet.

Another mission that is somewhat of a follow up is that of Stardust. It is on a path to rendezvous with the comet Temple 1. If that name sounds familiar, it should. This is the same comet that was blasted by the satellite Deep Impact back in 2005. It was a spectacular explosion on the surface of Temple 1 and the mission was a great success. Even though the official stated mission of Deep Impact and Stardust is to study comets, I wonder if the real primary mission was test how easy it would be to destroy or alter the course of a comet. In any case, Stardust should be able to see what damage was left behind by Deep Impact. We will see around February 14th of 2011. Less than a year away!

In human space travel news good news has arrived from the moon. India’s lunar satellite Chandrayan-1 returned data from the north pole of the moon indicating large amounts of ice just below the surface. If we are going to build bases on the moon we will need plenty of water and it would be almost impossible to transport all we need from the earth.

Of course we will need new rockets and space vehicles to transport us to the moon someday and private space ventures could help out a great deal. In this article, Burt Rutan of Scaled Composites makes the case for sub-orbital flights as essential before getting into orbit. The key aspects of the sub-orbital flights (by Virgin Galactic) will be to prove safety, reduce cost, and develop new technology.

Of course Scaled Composites and Virgin Galactic are not the only players in the market for commercial human space flight. Another company – Blue Origin – has been secretly developing a new rocket capable of vertical take -off and landing. They recently held a press conference but did not let out many new details as to their progress.

Have a fine Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Space

First a look at the forecast. It still looks cold for the last day of the year and the first few days of 2010. This is a little unusual for an El Nino winter but still not terribly cold for Wisconsin. Low temps could go a few degrees below zero on Saturday and Sunday morning. The most significant snowfall will be lake effect snow each day from Thursday through Monday in the favored areas of northern Wisconsin – generally north of highway 70. There could be a couple inches each day, with even more in the UP of Michigan. The heaviest snow in central Wisconsin will occur Wednesday afternoon and evening when there could be an inch or so. High temps will only be in the single digits to around 10 degrees from Friday through Sunday.

Year-End Recap:

Click here to review numbers 10 through 6 which were detailed in yesterday’s blog entry. Ray mentioned that yo-yo temps should be in the list in 2009 and they do appear in some of the items from yesterday and today. This was particularly true in the 2nd half of the year. July was very cool and dry, August was wet (6.21″ rain), September was warm and very dry, October was cool and wet, and November was warm and relatively dry.

5. December 8th/9th Blizzard. This was the biggest snowstorm of the year and it was the first time I remember a blizzard warning being issued for Marathon county (at least as far back as 1995). The blizzard warning covered most of the area and snow totals ranged from about 10 inches in Wausau to 14 to 17 inches in the southeastern part of the area. Two record snowfalls were recorded in Wausau, 4.5 inches on the 8th and 5.5 inches on the 9th.

4. Summer drought. For the 7th year in a row, Wausau and most of northcentral Wisconsin will end up with below normal precipitation for the year. The drought really got going during the last 12 days of June and continued through July. Many area crops were saved (just barely) by above normal rainfall in August. In September the drought returned and was particularly severe in the northwestern third of the state.

3. Lack of severe weather. Temps were below normal for most of the summer and precipitation was also below normal. Cool and dry conditions usually not conducive to severe weather such as tornadoes and thunderstorms. There were only a handful of severe thunderstorm warnings in the area and most of those were due to marginally severe hail. The worst severe weather damage of the year occurred in Rib Mountain on August 3rd. A microburst downed trees over a couple block area and damaged houses. Since the damage occurred in the middle of the night and in such a small area, it was not detected by radar or reported to the NWS so no severe thunderstorm warning was issued on that particular day.

2. Very cool and dry July. It did not feel like summer during what is normally the warmest month of the year. The average high temperature in Wausau during the month was only 75.3. Normally it should be 80.8. The warmest temperature of the month was 85 and the thermometer hit 80 only 5 times. High were in the 60s on 5 different occasions. The high of 62 on July 17th broke the record for coldest high temperature on that date. It was the 4thcoldest July on record as well as the 3rd driest. As mentioned above, a severe drought developed during the month as Wausau only received 1.19 inches of rain.

1. Record dry September. Some might not think this event as deserving of the top weather event of the year, but whenever a month breaks an all-time record, it has to be in the running. Couple this with the fact that 2009 was relatively un-eventful and the record dry September sticks out a bit more. How much rain fell? Only 0.23 inches. The old record for the driest September in Wausau was 0.43 inches set back in 1952. September of 2009 was the driest September in over 100 years of record-keeping in Wausau. Being that the month was very dry meant that there were many sunny days. The sunny dry weather was surreal. Day after day was gorgeous. It was like living in southern California. High temps were in the 70s and low 80s every day except the last 3 days of the month when the mercury dipped into the 50s.

Other Year-End Lists:

The top 7 software/technology/web disruptions of 2009. Some of these things you might already own or use.

Not sure if I posted this one: The year in Energy. A good review of all the alternative energy developments. Interesting side note – mining lithium for use in advanced batteries is becoming big business. Here is an article about the “mining” process in Bolivia. One potential problem with relying on Bolivia for lithium is that it is ruled by a leftist dictator.

For all the geeks out there: The year in robotics. Very interesting to see how close we are to the idealized robot servant “Rosie” from the Jetsons.

One of my favorite topics: Astronomy Milestones in 2009. Some related articles: The Mars rover Spirit is still stuck but it is still making scientific discoveries. The Cassini spacecraft has caught an image of a sun glint off of the Saturn’s moon Titan, which adds further evidence to the existence of liquid lakes on its surface. The Pheonix lander could “awake” again as the sun returns north during the Martian Spring. The odds are not great, but if the electronics survived the winter, it could phone home once again. The next Mars lander the “Mars Science Laboratory” is being built but unfortunately is 400 million over budget. This does not bode well for future funding of NASA projects. Lastly, some new  cool pictures of the geysers erupting out of Saturn’s moon Enceladus.

Coming tomorrow, Part 1 of the top 10 weather events of the last 10 years in Northcentral Wisconsin.

Have a fine Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Science, Space, Weather History

The biggest neHaumaews of the day is the latest El Nino monthly discussion, released yesterday. El Nino has strengthened! It has now reached moderate strength(1 degree above normal) in 2 of the El Nino regions and is getting close in the other 2 regions.

El Nino Strengthens

The dynamical and statistical computer models mostly indicate that a moderate El Nino will continue through the winterand then start to weaken in March. Only 4 out of the 21 projections indicate a weakening El Nino starting already in December. What does it mean for our winter weather? It raises the odds that temperatures will be above normal (on average) and that snowfall will be below normal. It still does not guarantee we will have a mild winter, just raises the odds. What I expect is mild temps on average, punctuated by a couple periods of significantly colder and snowy weather. If we happen to get a couple big snowstorms then snow conditions could end up being fairly decent as well.

If we have less than normal snowfall, it will make me sad, not only because I like to see big snow in the winter, but because we still haven’t completely recovered from the late summer drought.

Drought in the North

The latest US Drought Monitorindicates a slight improvement in the Wisconsin over the last week. Big snow would help the improvement continue. Of course, if we had some rain over the winter, that might help as well, but I would rather have all snow. Drought conditions in the rest of the country have not changed all that much recently. Texas is doing slightly better and California is doing slightly worse. Californians are probably hoping for a stronger El Nino to help recharge their water resources. A strong El Nino usually brings a lot of winter precipitation to California, especially the southern 2/3 of the state.

Earlier this week I highlighted some extreme cold we experienced back in November of 1951. Just as a follow-up there was also a major snowstorm in the middle of the country during that time period in 1951. Here is an entry from the weather history book for today.

1951- Snow fell from the Texas panhandle to the Lower Great Lakes, leaving record totals of 12.5 inches at Saint Louis MO, and 14.1 inches at Springfield MO. Other heavier snowfall totals included 20 inches at Nevada MO, 13.5 inches at Sedan KS, 13 inches at Decatur IL, and 10 inches at Alva OK. In the Saint Louis area, up to 20 inches was reported in Washington County. (5th- 6th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

Wisconsin was mostly missed by the big snow, but of course we did experience some bitter cold.

Another follow-up, this time in space. Data is being assessed from the latest Cassini flyby of Enceladus and a new picture has been released: see here. So far, all that has been determined is that the plumes of water vapor/ice are less dense than originally thought. Cassini will make another flyby next year. I find it amazing that this tiny moon is active. I wonder what it would be like standing on the surface near the geysers.

Speaking of active objects in the solar system, it has been recently discovered that a Kuiper belt object – Haumae(smaller than Pluto) - has a dark red spot. It is not a spot like the one on Jupiter because Haumae is a solid planet/object. The astronomer who discovered the spot suggests that it was recently struck by another object or that some matter from the interior of the planet is bubbling to the surface. I find it amazing who much activity is occurring on what were long thought to be “dead” objects, planets, and moons.

Just for fun, how about some cool pictures of islands from space. The one I like the most is the one that shows an island as well as a cool fluid dynamics phenomenon(the atmosphere obeys the equations of fluid motion). The vortices are formed when the air moves around the island. The vortices remain stable for quite some time before dissipating. It would be interesting to be at the surface in that picture and look up through the holes in the sky. Since these are small scale phenomena, you might even be able to detect the swirling motion (most certainly if you constructed a time lapse of photos).

And one last time-waster: some cool optical illusions presented and explained at the San Francisco Exploratorium.

Have a fine weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update, Records, Space, Viewer pictures, Weather History

I brought up the topic of hypocrisy last week in regards to an article from Newscientist praising China for being a paragon of clean energy development, even though they refuse to sign any new climate treaties (the U.S. would never get such treatment). A couple other recent articles made me think of hypocrisy again this week. This article – “Canada’s tar sands may be just too dirty” is an interesting look into the potential for Canadian tar sands to help provide the world with cleaner fossil fuel energy (another is this article about arctic sea ice). The more interesting aspect is that the analyses came from the World Wildlife Fund (WWF). Should there be a caveat in the article stating that WWF worked on the study and thus it might be biased? I ask because whenever a climate or energy study is funded and released by the energy industry, it is typically immediately and savagely derided as suspect because it was funded or somehow associated with “big oil” or “big energy”. How come studies supported or funded by environmental groups are not printed with caveats? I think it has to do with image instead of the actual data. The WWF has done a good job portraying themselves as the “good guys” vs. the “evil oil companies”, so of course, because their motives are “pure” they must be correct, right? This is not the case. What should matter is the data. Does it make sense? Has it been properly reviewed? I don’t care who does the study, as long as the process is transparent and the data adds up, then it should be factored into future policy decisions on energy and climate. If nearly every study presented by the “evil energy companies” is rejected and derided no matter the quality of the data or the soundness of the conclusions, then the same should happen with the WWF. What a minute, you say, maybe the WWF is not biased and has no ulterior motives. Although their mission is perceived as “good” they are squarely on one side of the AGW argument as can been seen in this post from the worldwide blog action day. It would seem they are completely convinced that humans are destroying the planet and that economic activity should be curbed very soon. The WWF has some good intentions but this does not automatically translate into unbiased science.

Another article that reveals hypocrisy is this one about “the right to dry“. This article discusses the energy savings that can be had by drying the laundry on an outdoor line. It is very environmentally friendly (and most likely good for health as well), yet it is banned in many U.S. communities. Typically these are communities like Malibu and Marin County California that claim to be environmentally conscious. It makes it look like their environmentalism goes no deeper than their vanity and pocketbook. Drying clothes on a clothesline is banned because they are afraid their property values will decline. I don’t care if a community wants to ban outdoor clothesline (and I don’t think creating a “right to dry” is necessary) but the communities that ban such energy saving methods should not be heralded as saints of environmentalism.

On the topic of energy and pollution here is something interesting: Ecuador is offering to not drill for oil in the amazon rain forest if “the world” pays them 3.5 billion. It appears capitalism is alive and well. That being said, it seems unlikely that this would happen or that it would not work without some strict conditions. What would prevent future Ecuadorian leaders from reneging on the deal? Could they police the area of the rain forest slated for protection? Might they mine these areas for other raw materials? Still, it is an interesting proposition that some world leaders are contemplating. Leaders in Ecuador have correctly taken the temperature of world sentiment and figures to profit.

Space News:

A follow up on Cassini’s Monday flyby of Enceladus. No definitive analysis of the chemical composition of the geysers yet, but a couple of cool pictures have been released -check here.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Space

I ought to update the AGW list one of these days. I am procrastinating because it is quite a chore. It is getting so long that it takes a while to cross reference any new headlines with the past ones to make sure there is no duplication. Well… one of these days, but not today.

Also, in case you haven’t checked it out lately, I have been recording a longer weather show for our webchannel. Check it out here: Let me know what you think.

How about a little space news to start out. The Cassini spacecraft is still orbiting Saturn and still returning interesting scientific information. Yesterday it made another dive through the plumes of ice (and water?) emanating from the south pole of Enceladus (a moon of Saturn). Here is a JPL blog post about it and an article from Newscientist. So why did mission planners send Cassini through the geysers once again? They are trying to get closer to see if they can detect any organic molecules. Some scientists think there could be liquid water in the interior and where there is water there is at least a slim chance of life – anyway, the carbon based life we are familiar with. If you polled astrobiologists or any astronomer 10 years ago, Enceladus would be one of the last places anyone would have suggested that life exists outside of earth. Now it is the object of intense study and gives a little hope that there might be liquid water present on other moons and planets as well.

In private space news SpaceX has set a launch date for the debut of its Falcon 9 rocket. It is scheduled to launch on February 2nd of next year- not written in stone though because you know how schedules can change depending on the weather or other launches occurring near that date. SpaceX hopes to get new contracts from NASA to launch payloads including future crew capsules. If you remember, SpaceX had quite a bit of trouble in prior years getting their Falcon1 off the ground. It seems they have worked out the kinks and I am happy to see them moving forward with the Falcon9. If regular folks are ever going to have a chance of exploring space, we will need to see continued success with private space companies.

The Leonid meteor shower coming up this month might be particularly strong on November 17th. The bad news is that Asia will be in night/dark during the expected peak of the meteor shower. Here in North America we will get the tail end of the peak but you might still be able to see some of the falling stars early in the morning if the skies are clear. Sometimes you can see a few meteors the night before or the night after as well – you just have to be a bit more patient.

When you are looking at the sky for meteors, you might also notice the milky way. If the view with your naked eye is not so great then you might want to take a look at the latest detailed panorama view stitched together by Axel Mellinger. You can click on the image and pan and zoom to see millions of stars that were not visible in past panoramic views of the Milky Way, check it out.

Lastly, the future of spaceflight could involve wings. Here are a couple of stories about secretive recent tests of supposed space vehicles. One occurred back on October 15th at Spaceport America in New Mexico and the craft was built by Lockheed Martin. They aren’t saying who or what it is for, but I wonder if it is related to the secret Air Force project, the X-37B. The “military space plane” will supposedly make it first trip to space on April 10th of next year.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Space