First I want to again highlight the National Weather Service survey of the tornado that hit Clark county on Tuesday (as Rob did yesterday as well). Yesterday I provided a very rough preliminary estimate of where the tornado traveled just based on viewer reports and pictures. It turns out the tornado took a more west to east path, instead of northwest to southeast.

Tornado Path, Loyal to Chili

Instead of starting a couple miles east of Loyal, it was a couple miles south of of that community. It then traveled mostly eastward for about 7.2 miles and lifted just a little northeast of Chili.

If it had continued for another 5 miles or so, it would have likely affected the south side of Marshfield. The tornado was rated an EF2 with estimated winds of 120 to 130 mph, which makes it just a little weaker than the tornado that hit Merrill earlier this year.

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Now on to one of my other favorite subjects (besides the weather) and that is alternative energy and technological progress. We live in a fast paced world and new developments are happening every day, but sometimes we hit a few speed bumps. Not everything progresses smoothly. For those hoping for the solar power revolution to really take-off (me included), it seems things might be stalled just a bit. Many analysts of the solar power industry say there is an oversupply right now and that this will hurt profitability at many companies. It has hurt enough to cause a few companies to go out of business. It is not much surprise to me that the new companies supported primarily by government loans here in the U.S. have failed. Evergreen solar unfortunately filed for bankruptcy and Solyndra is not doing too hot either.

What is more disturbing and sad is that privately funded Spectrawatt has also gone belly up. This was a company spun off by Intel, the computer chip manufacturing giant.

The common themes for the profitability problems are oversupply, loss of government subsidies, and competition from China. The only way to beat the competition from China is to go toward more automated production (like First Solar? Although even they are manufacturing more in Malaysia). The government subsidies will probably be meager for a few years to come because most developed-nations are functionally insolvent. They won’t have much money to spare on solar subsidies in the near future. The over supply situation cuts both ways. Over supply can lead to lower prices which can eventually lead to more people buying the product. It is a dynamic relationship that might favor strongest players in the market. In any case, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a couple more solar power company bankruptcies in the near year or so. Overall, I suspect the trend toward more solar power adoption will continue because the price per watt keeps coming down every year while the price of traditional fossil fuels remains high.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Severe Weather, Technology, Tornadoes

Regular readers of the weather blog know that I follow alternative energy developments quite closely. It is an important topic which is intimately linked with anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Solar power in particular seems to have a bright future (based on current trends). It is the most scalable and has the most room for improvement (based on our current understanding of physics). However, this does not mean that it will be completely clear sailing into a cleaner greener future. Economics also plays a role and it is economics that is producing some difficult times for American and “Western” solar manufacturing companies.

As it turns out, solar panel manufacturing is succumbing to the same price pressure as other types of manufacturing. In order to save cost, plants in the U.S. are shutting down while plants in China ramp up. Due to cheap labor (some activists claim “slave” labor), solar panel manufacturers in China have a big edge. How bad has it been? I noticed several solar companies I have profiled here in the blog are in poor shape or shutting down altogether:

Solyndra got a government loan and a visit from President Obama but still had to shut down one of its plants, and is only hanging on by a thread (according to some reports).

SpectraWatt is reportedly shutting down operations in New York. This is surprising since it was a spin-off from Intel and had good financial backing at the start.

Evergreen Solar is not going bankrupt, but it is shutting down its Massachusetts plant in favor of its operations in China and Michigan.

The good news is that two of the U.S. “stars” in solar panel manufacturing are still doing well by most accounts. Nanosolar is expanding its production plant in San Joseand Firstsolar (Arizona) continues to be one of the world leaders in price per watt. I suspect these companies are doing well because of highly automated manufacturing processes (less labor cost).

Whether due to cheap labor in China or highly automated manufacturing in the west, solar panel prices continue to decline every year. The main obstacle left for me personally is the installation cost. The actual panels are now within my price range, but to have them mounted on my roof and install all the supporting equipment is still quite expensive.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Technology