We have heard through the last few years about how the weather is supposedly getting more “wild” or extreme, primarily due to anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and there is some data that seems to back this up. Insured losses have been increasing in recent years and last year was the worst. 2011 was the costliest year of natural disasters on record, totaling 380 billion across the world!

One thing to remember, and something many commentators have pointed out, is that this is a record for INSURED losses. This plays a part in trying to assess any increase in extreme weather. Just because insured losses hit a record, does not necessarily mean that there were more devastating weather events. If could be that the worst weather of the year just happened to hit highly populated “expensive” areas of the world. The previous record year was 2005 when category 5 hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the gulf coast of the U.S. including the major population center of New Orleans. There have been other years with category 5 hurricanes that were unremarkable for insured losses because the hurricanes did not strike populated areas. So in order to know for sure that extreme weather is increasing, we will need to consider objective data besides insured losses. Climatologists have been busy tabulating the number of flood events, amounts of rainfall, number of heat waves, the number of record temperature events, and many other things. So far, the one trend that has been confirmed is that the frequency of heavy rain events is increasing in many parts of the world. At this page you can find some data about severe weather (including heavy rain) and whether or not it is increasing.

Many other trends in extreme weather have not been robustly confirmed. There has been much debate about whether hurricanes have increased in number and/or intensity in recent decades. Many people expect this should be (or will be) the case because the temperature of the oceans has gone up a little and the heat content of the ocean is one of the key drivers of hurricanes. Reality has not kept up with these expectations. Hurricanes are complex weather phenomena and the temperature of the ocean is only one factor. Wind shear is quite important as well. A recent study by Christopher Landsea has found no substantial direct link between hurricanes and AGW and suggests that effects will be negligible through 2100. Once Landsea factored in population growth along the coast of the U.S. and better monitoring techniques, the apparent increase in insured losses and number/intensity of hurricanes was not substantial.

Which brings us back to the record year of insured losses in 2011. It would not have been a record year for insured losses of natural disasters except for one event and you can probably guess what it was – the Japan earthquake and tsunami.  The earthquake and tsunami resulted in an estimated 210 billion in insured losses. Taking out that one event and we end up with only 170 billion in losses. It was still a bad year for “bad” weather and natural disasters, but 170 billion is 50 billion less than the previous record of 220 billion in 2005. Since earthquakes and tsunamis are not directly weather related, this should be kept in mind when using insured losses as a metric of whether extreme weather is increasing.

When discussing extreme weather and AGW, the vast majority of the content is negative. The basic premise is that AGW is going to theoretically destroy the environment. Once in a while though, something positive makes it into the discussion. In the past, the few positive aspects of the theoretical future warming hinge upon more areas around the poles becoming more habitable. The frozen north of Canada (and Siberia) might become a productive growing area.

Another potential positive (I think it is a good thing anyway), is that theoretical AGW might stall the onset of the next ice age. According to some geologists we are already overdo for an ice age. According to this latest research, an new ice age should begin within the next 1,500 years but the co-authors claim AGW will delay or prevent it. This is a good thing because if the planet became 5 degrees colder instead of 5 degrees warmer, we would have much bigger problems, in my opinion. Colder temps would mean an expansion of frozen tundra and the ice caps and likely lead to much less rainfall due to colder ocean temps and more water being locked up as ice at the poles. The would be much less space for agriculture. Much suffering would ensue. I am not saying hooray for AGW, but I am saying that delaying the next ice age is a good thing. If it a new ice age was upon us, we would probably be compelled to spend a lot of resources figuring out ways to warm up the planet.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Hurricanes, International Weather, Natural Disasters, Severe Weather, Storms, Tsunami, World Weather

 

 

 

 

Since our weather looks fairly dry and boring around here for several days I thought you might like to ponder some of the craziest weather events that have ever hit the planet Earth.  Well, that is the craziest events that humans have had the fortune of recording.

TEMPERATURE

• Highest:  136 F   Sept. 13, 1922    El Azizia, Libya
• Lowest:  -128 F   July 21, 1983     Vostok, Antarctica

AIR PRESSURE

• Highest (Sea Level):  31.99″ Hg    Dec. 31, 1968   Agata, Russia
• Lowest (Sea Level):  25.69″ Hg     Oct. 12, 1979   Eye of Typhoon Tip

RAINFALL

• Greatest 1 minute:  1.23″   July 4, 1956    Unionville, Maryland
• Greatest 1 hour:   12.0″     June 22, 1947   Holt, Missouri
• Greatest 24 hour:  71.8″   Jan. 7-8, 1966   Foc-Foc, La Reunion
• Greatest 72 hour:  154.7″   Feb. 24-26, 2007    Cratere Commerson, La Reunion
• Greatest 12 month:  1042″   Aug. 1860 – Jul. 1861    Cherrapunji, India

 

 

 

 

 

SNOWFALL

• Greatest 24 hour:   76″    Apr. 14-15, 1921     Silver Lake, Colorado
• Greatest season:  1140″   winter of 1998-99    Mount Baker, Washington

HAIL

• Heaviest:  2.25 lb.  Apr. 4, 1986    Gopalganj District, Bangladesh

DRYNESS

•  Longest drought:  173 months     Oct. 1903 – Jan. 1918     Arica, Chile

WIND

• Maximum Gust (non-tornado):  253 mph     Apr. 10, 1996   Barrow Island, Australia

 

 

 

 

 

TORNADO

• Deadliest single tornado:  1300 deaths   Apr. 26, 1989     Manikganj District, Bangladesh
• Longest lasting:  219 miles / 3.5 hours    Mar. 18, 1925    Ellington, Missouri to Princeton, Indiana
• Widest:  2.5 miles       May 22, 2004      Hallam, Nebraska
• Highest torandic wind:  302 mph      May 3, 1999    Bridge Creek, Oklahoma

WELL, AS THEY SAY….RECORDS ARE MEANT TO BE BROKEN.  Some of these weather records are just unbelievable.  Hard to imagine that they could ever be eclipsed.   If you would like to view many more weather records from around the world including an interactive map that plots where they occurred, check out this link.  http://wmo.asu.edu/maps/map.html

Have fun!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted under Drought, Natural Disasters, Records, Tornadoes, World Weather

I am issuing a clarion call to make plans to enjoy the weather during the middle of this work week! Unless you are one of the folks who really enjoys heat and humidity (such as Don Clark, a radio personality who used to work in the area, who wanted 95 and humid as many days as possible), you will really enjoy the cool down over the next few days.

The weather wasn’t too hot over the weekend but it was humid. Highs will once again reach the mid to upper 80s today making it a tad bit uncomfortable. Then we are looking at highs only in the 75 to 80 range from Tuesday through Wednesday. Wednesday is looking like a particularly gorgeous day with plenty of sun and low humidity. So why am I wasting blog time on a couple of days in the 70s? Because the heat will be back on for this upcoming weekend, and it might last for a few days. Highs will be near 90 on Saturday and then reach the low 90s for Sunday and Monday. The humidity will be quite high as well during this time frame. The high heat might even last a couple more days into the middle of next week. It looks like these few days coming up from the 16th through the 20th or so could be the zenith of our Summer, of the warm season. Right now I am looking at somewhat tolerable low 90s for most of the heat wave, but if there is more sunshine than expected we could be talking mid 90s. The record highs for this time frame are in the mid to upper 90s so we will be close. One key to how warm it gets will be if there is any rain or thunderstorms. If we have enough rainfall (a couple more downpours later this week), then evapotranspiration will keep a bit more of a lid on the temps.

One thing you will no doubt hear a lot more about later this week and into early next week is anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Nowadays, almost every heat wave is blamed on AGW (aside: some researchers and science journalists have more recently and accurately portrayed heat waves as “possibly” being due to, or partially caused by AGW), and with high temps possibly hitting 100 and the heat index certainly rising above 100 for many locations in the center of the nation (maybe even Chicago) for several days in a row, the subject will no doubt be on the lips of many.

Having a heat wave and setting record high temps are not that noteworthy in and of themselves, but if we have more of such heat waves this year and in coming years, that would be in line with predictions from AGW computer models. Of course the general theory is that as carbon dioxide increases in the atmosphere, the temperature will go up. Tony re-capped the latest trend of emissions in this recent blog post. Special note, most emissions are no longer due to the U.S., they are from China. However, with an increasingly interconnected international society, it is hard to pin the blame on either the consumers or the producers.

Even though carbon emissions are going up, there is no guarantee that temps will follow suit in a linear fashion. In fact, abrupt climate change has occurred a few times in the past due mostly to changing ocean circulations, not so much from carbon dioxide density changes. It has been found that El Nino has not always been as prevalent as it is now. Besides changes in ocean patterns, there are many other factors which play into the climate system such as biosphere changes and sun activity. Although humans are a powerful force of change on the planet, we are not in complete control. Low sun activity such as was recorded during the little ice age and caused the demise of the Norse colonies in Greenland could return. Different rates of carbon storage within the different ecosystems, such as forests could make a difference. Tropical forests could end up storing a lot more carbon if they are protected (and more are coming under management). Even things as esoteric as cosmic rays could influence the future climate. After many years of ivory tower dismissals, research is giving more credence that cosmic ray flux can change cloudiness in the atmosphere.

Thus I am interested to see many people still trying hard to fit every small movement of temperatures into a human-caused scenario. Many of you are probably aware of the fact that 1998 was the warmest year on instrumental record and then global average temps declined slightly for the next 10 years. Perhaps it was a natural cool cycle super-imposed on a long term uptrend? I wouldn’t be surprised. But some want to argue that the “pause” in theoretical  AGW was solely due to human actions. At least one researcher has claimed that the slightly cooler trend over the last decade was caused by China emitting more sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. Sulfur dioxide tends to block out sunlight and cool the earth. This happens naturally through the action of volcanoes.

Along with the trend of blaming every change in the climate on human action, as mentioned earlier, there is also a trend of associating every extreme weather event with AGW. I discussed the heat above. In addition, some scientists are claiming the big floods, fires, and deadly tornado season are a symptom of AGW and it will only get worse in coming years. Just anecdotally, it seems I have seen about the same amount of extreme weather during my lifetime, whether it was in the 70s and 80s or now. The only thing I have witnessed more of (again just anecdotally) is warm weather.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Heat, Natural Disasters