The most interesting weather news that comes around early every month is the ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) diagnostic discussion and the latest one arrived yesterday. Here at StormTrack9 we monitor the progress of the ENSO cycle closely because it usually has a significant effect on our Winter weather. There was a moderate to strong La Nina in the Pacific Ocean last Winter and our conditions in Wisconsin were colder and more snowy than normal. The Winter also seemed to last forever as the La Nina ocean pattern continued into the Spring.

ENSO Computer Projections

So what is happening this year? The latest ENSO discussion indicates that a weak La Nina has formed and that it will remain weak to moderate over the next couple of months. In contrast to last year, the La Nina should end a bit earlier (based on historical comparisons). It should be strongest in December and January and then weaken late in the Winter. Even though there isn’t an exact correlation between our Winter conditions and La Nina, the last 3 times we have experienced La Nina, our Winter conditions have been more harsh. Thus, if we are to have some heavier snow or extended periods of colder than normal temps, I think it will occur during the first half of the Winter. If La Nina weakens in February and March (as projected) then I expect that late Winter and early Spring should be warmer than last year with less snow.

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Another important update is the list of top 4 winners in the FIRST SNOWFALL CONTEST of 2011. This morning on Wake-Up Wisconsin we randomly drew the top four and they are:

• 1st Place: Renee Kolpacki (Free car washes for a year + $50 R-store gift card)
• 2nd Place: Bob Butkus ($150 R-store gift card)
• 3rd Place: Rose Marie Piekarski ($100 R-store gift card)
• 4th Place: Dale Hanneman ($50 R-store gift card)

Everyone else who predicted the correct date of the first snowfall (9th of November) wins a free car wash coupon from the R-stores. For those who won and are reading this, the prizes will be mailed out next week. Congratulations to all the super snowfall forecasters. 16 people predicted the correct date. Thanks a bunch to the R-stores for once again providing the prizes.

One other very interesting weather nugget for this Veteran’s Day is an extreme change in temperature on November 11th back in 1911. In Oklahoma city they recorded a record high of 83 and a record low of 17 ON THE SAME DAY. In my opinion, this is one of the most interesting weather records of all time. I doubt we would ever see this here in Wisconsin. It would have to happen during the Winter if we ever had a chance, and the temperature would have to go from around 40 down to -30 in one day. Here are the rest of the details from that extreme day:

1911 – The central U.S. experienced perhaps its most dramatic cold wave of record. During the early morning temperatures across the Central Plains ranged from 68 degrees at Kansas City to 4 above North Platte NE. In Kansas City, the temperature warmed to a record 76 degrees by late morning before the arctic front moved in from the northwest. Skies become overcast, winds shifted to the northwest, and the mercury began to plummet. By early afternoon it was cold enough to snow, and by midnight the temperature had dipped to a record cold reading of 11 degrees above zero. Oklahoma City also established a record high of 83 degrees and record low of 17 degrees that same day. In southeastern Kansas, the temperature at Independence plunged from 83 degrees to 33 degrees in just one hour. The arctic cold front produced severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Mississippi Valley, a blizzard in the Ohio Va

Posted under ENSO Update, First Snowfall 2011, Weather History

With the recent snowstorm and all the interesting things that it brought up, I almost forgot that today is the anniversary of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald. I won’t go into great detail about it again (you can check this past blog post here if you are interested) except to highlight the idea that this shipwreck might not have ever been very famous except for the fact that Gordon Lightfoot wrote a song about it. The fact that is was the largest ore carrier at the time was also notable. Otherwise, shipwrecks on the Great Lakes were quite common during the 19th and 20th centuries.

Back to the snowstorm. It turns out the snowfall was a record one in Rhinelander and Wausau. Rhinelander checked in with 9.0 inches of snow which smashed the old record of 2.6 inches set back in 1926. In Wausau we barely broke the old record of 3.0 inches (set in 1896 and 1948) by tallying 3.2 inches. The heaviest snow generally fell in the eastern part of the area. East of Wausau and east of I-39, reports indicated anywhere from 5 to 9 inches. Farther west the totals were generally in the 1 to 5 inches range.

Not only was the 3.2 inches in Wausau a record, it also reached the criteria for our FIRST SNOWFALL CONTEST! All we needed was one inch. So November 9th is the winning date for the contest. It looks like 16 people predicted November 9th and they will be entered into the random drawing to determine who gets the top 4 prizes. Barring any technical difficulties (with the online entry database) we will be drawing the names on Wake-Up Wisconsin on Friday (tomorrow, November 11th, Veterans Day). As far our little internal office/media circle competition goes, Tony is the winner as he predicted November 8th and was the closest.

Here are the names of the 16 super snowfall forecasters who will be in the drawing on Friday:

1. Marvin Skrzypcak
2. Marge Brzezinski
3. Sally Scinto-Reinertson
4. Krissy Vaughan
5. Dale Hanneman
6. Karla Staus
7. Jessica Resch
8. Rachele Cherek
9. John Svoboda
10. Robert Anklam
11. Renee Kolpacki
12. Brad Gast
13. Rose Marie Piekarski
14. Bob Butkus
15. Candace Burch
16. 715-551-XXXX (this was an entry that was texted in and we haven’t heard back from them yet)

The big prizes up for grabs are:

1. Free car washes for one year plus a $50 gift card from the R-stores of Northcentral Wisconsin.
2. $150 gift card from the R-stores of Northcentral Wisconsin.
3. $100 gift card from the R-stores of Northcentral Wisconsin
4. $50 gift card from the R-stores of Northcentral Wisconsin

Everyone who is not drawn in the top 4 places will receive a free car wash coupon from the R-store.

Good luck to everyone!

Have a fine Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under First Snowfall 2011, Records, Weather History

Just a little update on the snowfall for today. Due to the unfrozen ground, a lot of the snow is melting as it falls. Snow was falling from 7:00 to 9:30am here in Wausau before anything began to stick on the grass. I still expect to reach one inch of snow accumulation in Wausau, and thus we should have winners in our First Snowfall contest. If today ends up being the winning date in the snowfall contest, then we will have a drawing for the top 4 prizes during Wake-Up Wisconsin on Friday morning.

A more difficult question is whether we will end up breaking the record snow fall here in Wausau for November 9th. The record is 3.0 inches set in 1896 and again in 1948. I think it will be close, but based on current trends on the radar and model projections, we might fall just a little short.

In any case, there are many locations in the viewing area that have had more accumulation at the time of this writing. You can check out some of the viewer photographs here. Up to 3 inches has been reported in grassy areas. So many locations will end up with the forecast 4 to 6 inches. Be careful on the roadways. Thankfully the snow should be winding down during the 3pm to 5pm time frame, so hopefully the afternoon commute will not be to treacherous.

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An update on the most recent cold fusion story out of Italy (check yesterday’s blog post for more). The inventor of the latest cold fusion device (named the “E-cat”), Andrea Rossi, claims to have sold 3 units thus far. The people or companies who ordered the units have thus far remained anonymous. I (and Rossi) have said from the beginning that the market will be the ultimate decider of hope vs. hoax. Now that the device is being used outside of Rossi’s control, we should get validation. I am still more of a skeptic than believer. If there is some strange nuclear reaction going on, and it produces electricity at a competitve cost, then Rossi will be rich and the world’s energy problems will be solved. I do not exaggerate.

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Another story that I have been following that has reached a happy conclusion, is the Mars 500 experiment. This was a mock mission to Mars, where 6 astronauts were locked up in a mock space ship for 520 days – the amount of time it would take for a real trip using today’s technology. Here is an article where they share their thoughts about the mission.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under First Snowfall 2011, Space, Technology, Winter Weather

I hope everyone made it through the illogical and archaic clock change from this past weekend without much trouble. One thing that is common for people to associate with the clock change is the onset of Winter. November is officially a Fall month and it is not too often that we have major storms or cold during the month, however, when the sun starts setting before 5pm, everyone starts to think a little more about Winter.

It just so happens that this week IS Winter Weather Awareness Week in Wisconsin AND we could end up with our first significant snow of the season, so that old association with Winter and the clock change fits fairly well in 2011.

I will provide more Winter Weather safety facts and tips throughout the work week but for today I am just going to provide the one tip you should heed most closely, SLOW DOWN!! As is the case with flash flooding, most Winter Weather deaths in the modern day occur on the roadways. Hypothermia and heart attacks are concerns, but nothing is as dangerous as the roadways during the Winter. That is where almost ALL the trouble is and is where you should focus most of your attention during the Winter. On any day when precipitation is expected during the Winter be sure to leave early for work or school and drive slowly. Don’t be in a rush because you could end up dead. Cars are dangerous – especially in the Winter.

So when could we end up with snow this week? It looks like the first band of mixed precipitation will be moving through Northcentral Wisconsin late tonight or (more likely) on Tuesday morning. Right now, it looks like temps will be warm enough to prevent significant snowfall, however, there could be up to an inch accumulation in some spots. A higher chance for accumulating snow will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. It is during this time frame that a couple of inches of slushy snow could accumulate around central Wisconsin and 3 to 6 inches could fall in the far northwest part of the viewing area. By far northwest, I am talking about cities such as Ogema, Phillips, Park Falls, Mercer, Minocqua, and Manitowish Waters.

Snow amounts are still very preliminary and it will be tough to get accurate measurement when the time comes because temps will be above freezing and the ground is not frozen yet. So, it could snow 6 inches in the north but it might only look like 2 or 3 inches after a few hours because it will be melting from the top and the bottom.

Will there be an inch in Wausau? I think the odds are greater than 50% that we could end up with an inch. If so, we could have our winners for the First Snowfall Contest. If an inch falls on either Tuesday or Wednesday of this week, then we will probably hold the drawing for the top 4 prize winners on Friday of this week on Wake-Up Wisconsin. As far as our circle of Channel 9 personalities and media friends goes (people who are not eligible for the prizes), it looks like Tony Schumacher has a good shot of winning, since he picked November 8th and would be the closest.

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One important update I wanted to pass along about an energy issue that I blog about from time-to-time is cold fusion. As you know, I am fairly skeptical that this type of fusion reaction can occur or be commercialized, but I always keep my mind open and hopes up. Cold fusion is a theorized reaction where fusion occurs by electro-chemical means at lower temperatures than nuclear fusion is commonly known to occur. If it was a process that could be contained and used to produce electricity, it would revolutionize the world. The problems is that the many experiments that have purported to show cold fusion to be true, are very hard or impossible to reproduce on a consistent basis (otherwise we would already be swimming in a world of nearly free energy). The latest incarnation of the cold fusion mystery happened in Italy earlier this year. I blogged about it here. Now we finally have an update on the inventors and their tribulations. The main inventor, Andrea Rossi, has built a bigger cold fusion device but still will not let anyone see the inner workings. He does not want to let anyone see the inside because it is a trade secret and he doesn’t have patent protection. As far as anyone who has measured the energy input and output of the device, they all say that it produces a lot more than what is fed in. Early this year, Rossi said that even though he is being secretive, that the market will tell the ultimate truth. If he has produced cold fusion and his device can produce electricity cheaper than traditional sources, then he will be vindicated. So far, no market test. It will be wait and see.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, First Snowfall 2011, Winter Weather