Lately it seems we can’t win with the weather.  I wish we could either see snow or rain but recently it has been the wintry mix and freezing rain which has made for some real problems on the roadways!  I went to the Packer/Vikings game in the Twin Cities this past weekend, I have to admit I was not complaining about being indoors when outside there was freezing drizzle and rain everywhere. 

We must have seen a dozen or more cars and even semis flipped over and in the ditch on our drive to the game.  It was quite a mess in Minnesota.  There were over 450 accidents with over 75 injuries, some of them fatal. As I wrote on Saturday night freezing rain is the most dangerous winter condition to drive in because it forms s glaze on the roadways. 

We are going to see the possibility of another round of snow/ice/rain as we head into tomorrow.  Right now it seems that it will start as snow then change over to a mix or rain by late Wednesday into the overnight and then change back over to a snow event by Thursday morning.  Like we saw on Sunday, roads will become slick especially if we see the mix and freezing rain.  The biggest problem will be how fast temps will warm and how much of a change over we will see.  I think the Northwoods will luck out and just see snowfall, this will be mainly from highway 8 to the north.  From the Dells to the south we will see some ice but I think it will stay as mainly liquid precip.  The point is be careful if you have to drive late tomorrow into the evening and overnight.   Make sure to check road conditions! We do not want to see a scenario like they did Sunday morning in the Twin Cities.  Because of the wintery mess we do have a Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 pm Wednesday through 3 am on Thursday.

Here is a few pics from the Pack ! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under forecast, Freeze, Weather NEws, Weather Safety, Winter Weather

Over the weekend, I was a bit conflicted. I had forecast the correct conditions (at least 5 days in advance), but the conditions were not all that great for the opening weekend of the hunting season. It was a bit cold on Saturday (as forecast), and we had some freezing drizzle and rain on Sunday (as forecast) which caused a little less hunting activity. A lot of hunters I know got a little damp and cashed it in early to go watch the Packer game. The hunting group I was with ended up harvesting 3 deer – which is about what we hope for during the opening weekend. What did you think about the weekend weather? 1. Wasn’t very nice. 2. Not so bad because I was prepared (thanks to StormTrak9 – wink).

Now it looks like some messy weather will follow us into the work week. Much of the area will experience rain and drizzle today but temps will be cold enough to the north and west for some sleet and freezing rain to mix in with the precipitation. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY is in effect for Taylor county through 6pm today and a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for Price, Iron, and Ashland counties through this evening. Not too much snow is expected, perhaps an inch or two in the WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY area. What could be of more importance is another storm that could bring a wintry mix of precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday morning. If you are traveling during this time frame be sure to allow some extra time as the roads could get a bit slippery. As far as flying goes, the airport most likely to experience delays on Wednesday and Thursday will be Minneapolis. After the messy precipitation is over on Thanksgiving morning, it looks like gusty cold winds will move in and make it feel more like winter in the afternoon. Black Friday will also be quite cold with high temperatures only hitting the low 20s. The good news is that the weather should be dry from Thursday afternoon all the way through Sunday of the upcoming weekend. Therefore, traveling home from long weekend family get-togethers should be much better than traveling to “Grandma’s Place”.

In other news, I often follow the interrelated stories of advancing technology, AGW, and Peak Oil because all three will have a major impact on how we percieve and act in the present day and how we will evolve into the future. It is unfortunate that most discussion of these three topics are done in isolation, because this can lead to illogical predictions. One might ask how we can destroy the planet with carbon emmissions while at the same time oil is running out. One might ask how AGW will destroy the planet when the technology of clean energy continues to advance rapidly. One of these questions popped into my head again today while reading this article about Peak Coal. Not only is there concern over Peak Oil and Peak Phosphorus, but Peak Coal as well. One thing about the article, at least I see people starting to acknowledge that if we have Peak (name your fossil fuel) in the next decade or two, this will have an affect on climate forecasts. In the past it was assumed (in climate models) that we would have “business as usual” fossil fuel usage through the end of this century. Increasingly, this does not look to be the case, and I hope the climate modellers at the IPCC will incorporate at least some more realistic scenarios in the future.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, forecast, Peak Oil, Technology, Travel, Winter Weather

It is here! The official opening day of gun deer hunting season.  It was surely a chilly one for all those hunters, highs barely made it out of the 20s around the area.  I haven’t been on here in a couple days because I have been enjoying some time with my family.  They flew up from Florida and let me tell you, we have had more people ask them why they would come visit in Nov then in the summer.  Ironically enough they have been here always in the winter then in the summer. 

We went down to Madison to visit some family last night and took these pics this morning outside their house.  I was surprised to see so many geese still hanging around, maybe because of the warm Nov we saw?  This is also of the sunrise early this morning.  ( I should give credit to my mom since she was the one up and taking it!)

I wanted to give the hunting forecast for tomorrow… It does look like we will see freezing drizzle and rain develop overnight.  It should likely change over to just liquid in the late morning…between 9 am and noon.  Because of the freezing rain we do have a FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY in effect from 3 am to 9 am and until noon for Vilas, Oneida, Lincoln, Forest and Langlade.  The counties in effect until 9 am are Taylor, Jackson, Clark, Marathon, Wood, Portage, and Price.  Just be a bit careful if you will be on back roads especially late tonight or early tomorrow morning.  Even a little glaze can be dangerous and cause slipping on major roadways.  Freezing rain is the most dangerous form of winter precip to drive in and is best to try and avoid driving in it.  This being said there are many articles with tips on how to try and be safe if you must venture out.  I will be driving to the Twin Cities tomorrow for the Packer/Viking game.  We are going to allow extra time so that we can make sure to be safe getting there.  If you are going to be heading out hunting or to church please allow plenty of time. For the hunters…winds will switch from the East, to the Southeast and eventually to the South by later in the afternoon.  The winds through the day should be light from around 5-10 mph.  Good luck!!!

As I have mentioned here I have started reporting and have been venturing to find fun outdoors or stories related to North Central Wisconsin.  I went up North to the Rhinelander area on Wednesday and interviewed a very unique individual.  Frank Kovac built his own Planetarium!  I was thoroughly impressed with his hard work and dedication to the project.  It took him 5 years to build and 5 years to be able to open it to the public!  I don’t know if I have ever seen a person so passionate and dedicated in my life.  Stay tuned for the story.  Here is just a few pics from there.   Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Fall, First Snowfall 2010, forecast, Uncategorized, Weather Safety, Winter Weather

Today I would like to share a couple videos with you. These are from students at John Marshall Elementary School.  Students at the Wausau school participate in a program called “180 Days”. This is a hands on project which assigns students the roles of pilot, navigator, and meteorologist as they plan trips around the U.S. Each week they “fly” to a different airport in the U.S. For each “flight” the meteorologists are required to help the pilots and navigators fly safely to their destination. They analyze the weather data and create a forecast for the departure city, the flight path, and the arrival city. This year they have also begun recording their weather forecasts. You can view two of the young meteorologists (Allyson Geurink and Tegan Wolf) forecasts here – click on the videos.

In preparation for their project, I helped train the meteorologists in the Fall. At the Wausau municipal airport I explained weather instrumentation and they toured the Automated Surface Observing System out in the middle of the air field.

Allyson Geurink’s Forecast

Tegan Wolf’s Forecast

As far as the weekend forecast goes, it still looks like rain and freezing rain will develop on Saturday afternoon and continue through early Sunday morning. Temperatures will be hovering right around the freezing mark during the time of the rain so there could be significant icing in areas. I am expecting as much as 0.25 to 0.50 inches of liquid precipitation. A WINTER STORM WATCH has been posted for Price, Iron, and Ashland counties where a little more sleet or snow might mix in. Stay tuned later today as some additional advisories might be issued by the NWS covering more of the area. For central Wisconsin, it looks like the highest chance of accumulating snow will be Sunday evening into Monday morning when a couple inches might fall. Colder weather is on the way for the middle of next week with highs only in the teens.

Have a nice weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Winter Weather

Unlike the last storm, which was about as clear cut as it gets for heavy snow…the upcoming holiday system has a lot more to it.  This will likely turn out to be a long storm event with various waves of precipitation. 

The obvious big question will be precipitation type.  Cold air will be present top to bottom though the atmosphere when the first wave of precipitation moves in late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.  So initially the precipitation will be snow for all.  Snow will then continue through much of the day on Thursday….accumulating at least a few inches.  By late Thursday afternoon, even though we’ll still be below freezing at the surface, the temperatures aloft will really warm up.  That’s when I think locations in central Wisconsin will start to see a change over to freezing rain.  Icing will then be possible up to a quarter of an inch.  Just good ol’ snow will still continue across the far north and west. 

It is very possible that we enter a dry slot with the storm Thursday night.  If this occurs, all precipitation will come to an end for a while besides maybe a little bit a freezing drizzle.  

Oh but where not done yet…  By Christmas(Friday) cold air will makes its return aloft down to the surface.  We will likely then see another wave of predominately snow….likely another few inches. 

So as far as just snow goes…we’ll likely see anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of wet and heavy snow in Central Wisconsin.  The lighter amounts will be over our southeastern counties.  A good 6 to 9 inches of snow will be possible from say north and west of Medford.  The heaviest of snow with this system will fall over by the Twin Cities; possibly over a foot.

If you have travel plans, the best thing for you to do is to stay up with the forecast because a lot can change with the timing, precipitation type, and depending on when you leave.  Hopefully you’ll be able to time out one of the possible lull times with this system.  As far as traveling to surrounding big cities…as mentioned above the Twin Cities is going to get dumped on, where as Milwaukee will see the mix, but maybe even just plain rain for a while.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Winter Weather

I have to to tell you…I made the trip down to Stevens Point around 9:30 this morning and encountered some of the slickest roads I could ever remember.  I had white knuckles on the steering wheel the whole time.  4 wheel drive was no match for the freezing rain followed by snow. 

To me that has to be the worst combination….a sheet of ice covered by an inch snow.  It’s also one thing to have freezing rain with the temperature around 30…it’s another to have freezing rain when the temperature is in the upper teens.  That’s what we had this morning.  A surge of warm air moved in aloft over night but the temperature right near the surface remained cold.  The warmer air aloft made it way farther north than expected so we saw more freezing rain than snow, which of course in turn hampered our snow totals hear in Central Wisconsin.  There was all snow in the Northwoods…

Here are some totals..

Three Lakes: 4.0″    Presque Isle: 3.7″    Lake Tomahawk: 3.5″     Alvin: 3.0″    Lac Du Flambeau: 3.3″

Rhinelander: 2.8″    Brantwood: 4.0″    Rib Mountain: 3/4″   Abbotsford: 1.25″     Phillips: 4.0″

Whittlesey: 2.75″

Meteorlogist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Winter Weather

When you look outside today it is hard to imagine that a blizzard is raging just a couple hundred miles to our west in Minnesota and North Dakota. In North Dakota they have already shut down sections of the Interstate. Here in Northcentral Wisconsin we had our own trouble with freezing rain and sleet this morning but for the rest of today temps will rise above freezing and we will experience occasional light rain. Due to the freezing rain and sleet a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY remains in effect through noon for the counties of Marathon, Wood, Portage, Langlade, Menominee, Shawano, and Waupaca.

If there is some accumulating snow, it looks like it will be in the far north – north of highway 8 - this evening and overnight. Some locations in Vilas and Price county could end up with an inch or two in addition to high winds and therefore a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for those continues tonight through Wednesday morning. 3 or 4 inches could fall in Iron and Ashland counties and therefore a WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for those counties until 1 pm Wednesday. In Central Wisconsin the main concern is wind. A wind advisory goes into effect for most of central Wisconsin (basically south of highway 64) for tonight and continues through 1pm Wednesday. The west wind will be 20 to 30 mph, gusting up to 40 mph. You might see or hear some forecasts today calling for an inch or two of snow in Central Wisconsin but from what I have analyzed so far, the chances of accumulating snow in Central Wisconsin look quite slim. If anything, I expect a dusting here in town. The heavier snow will stay in the far north.

Another aspect of the weather that will “slap you in the face” tomorrow morning is the cold temperatures. High temps will only be in the teens on Wednesday and with the strong west to northwest wind, wind chills will be below zero all day long. The wind will die down Wednesday night and skies will become clear leading to low temps a few degrees below zero by daybreak on Thursday. Mostly sunny weather should prevail on Thursday and Friday leading to a gradual warm-up. By Saturday, high temps should be close to 40. The next chance of snow and rain will come late Sunday and into Monday.

Science News:

One topic I have covered in the blog from time-to-time over the last few years is the exploration of lakes in Antarctica. What!?, you say. Isn’t Antarctica covered in ice? Yes it is, however, there is liquid water in some ancient lakes a couple of miles below the surface of the ice. Hey all you ice-fisherman – could you imagine drilling through 2 miles of ice to try and catch fish? That is what some scientists hope to do at Lake Vostok. You can read the wikipedia article about Vostok here. The waters as well as any living organisms in Vostok have been trapped there for at least 500,000 years. The water is suspected to have a lot of dissolved oxygen, so much that it would be deadly to normal life. Thus any surviving bacteria or fish would be very different from most life on earth. That is what makes the effort to drill into the lake so tantalizing. Russian scientists have drilled 2 miles into the ice and are only a couple hundred feet from reaching the liquid lake. The problem is that they are using drills that require kerosene as lubricant and they are using freon to prevent the drill hole from freezing up. If they break through to the lake several tons of freon and kerosene could enter the lake and disturb or kill any life that is present. The lake is suspected to be under high pressure as well so the drill hole could become an explosive geyser, ejecting the some of Vostok’s water up to the surface. If the Russians can wait until the 2012-2013 time frame, a safer exploration of the lake could take place. A new consortium of researchers would like to use a melt probe to reach the lake. This would be a heat generating probe that melts its way through the ice and trails communication cables behind it. In any case, it should be an interesting discovery. Who knows what kind-of strange life has evolved in Vostok over the last half million years.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Science, Winter Weather