The cold blast of air continues to be the main theme in the weather for today and the rest of the week. It will be cold enough tonight that some patchy frost might form, but it is not a guarantee. The threat is great enough that the National Weather Service has issued a FROST ADVISORY for effective tonight into Thursday morning for Ashland, Price, Taylor, Clark, Jackson, Juneau, Adams, Wood, Portage, Waushara, Marathon and Lincoln counties.

The northeastern part of the area might not have any frost because there will be some lake effect cloudiness and some wind continuing out of the northwest. Some of the clouds might even hang around the Wausau area later tonight and thus I am forecasting a low of 34 in town. Even though I do not expect an official frost in the city, I am not going to leave any vulnerable plants outside. If we don’t have an official frost in Wausau tonight, it will likely happen Thursday night into Friday morning. We should have clear skies and light winds on Thursday night. Low in the northwoods will likely drop into the 20s. In Wausau I am forecasting 31. It will likely be the effective end of the growing season and it would break a record in Wausau. The record low on Friday is 32, set back in 1916. It is interesting to note that there was quite a wicked cold spell back in 1916 (besides just the record low on the 16th of September). In September of 1916 there was a record cold high temperature of 44 on the 15th, a record cold high temperature of 38 on the 16th (Yikes!), a record low of 32 on the 16th, a record low of 28 on the 17th, and a record low of 28 on the 18th. So if you don’t like the weather today, just be glad that you did not have to suffer through 1916. On the flip side, it was quite hot during this time of year in 1939. During September of 1939 we had record high temps in the 90s for 4 days in a row! It was 92 on the 13th, 94 on the 14th, 93 on the 15th, and 92 on the 16th

If we do get a frost in Wausau on Friday morning, it would be about 2 weeks earlier than normal. Check out this graphic to see when the first frost usually happens. For most of our area, it usually occurs between the 20th and the 26th of September. Wausau used to fall closer to this date range, but in the last couple of decades the city has grown enough to impact the date of the first frost. The Urban heat island effect is likely what makes Wausau’s first frost now occur around October 1st.

If we do have a frost on Friday then we will also have a longer time to experience official “Indian Summer”. The first frost is of course one criteria in the definition of Indian Summer. For the full definition of Indian Summer we use here at StormTrak 9, check this past blog post.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Fall, Freeze, Records, Weather History

With some frost expected in northwest Wisconsin Wednesday night and across a good chunk of the state Thursday night we are all hoping this will be the end of the cold weather for the growing season.  I ran a blog a few weeks ago about the average date of the last frost in spring in Wisconsin.  In the TV-9 viewing area this date is usually in early May in the southeast sections to right around June 1st toward the Upper Michigan border.

Thankfully the pattern does look much warmer next week with a general southwest flow in the jet stream driving summerlike air into Wisconsin.  So our chances beyond June 1st of getting frost are pretty low, I would say less than 20%.  I do remember a devastating frost on Father’s Day back in the early 1990s that severely hurt the corn crop since most of it was up already about 6 or 8 inches by that point.  I know a lot of tomato and pepper plants were lost in the area as well.

Think warm thoughts and I hope your yard is spared!

Posted under forecast, Freeze, Spring

I have been focusing quite closely on the developing El Nino in order to get a handle on upcoming winter trends in the U.S., particularly here in the Midwest. Many people could use a more accurate long term outlook in order to plan, energy bills, vacations, or major purchases.

Weak El Nino so far this year

A moderate to strong El Nino will usually give us a little more certainty. It would typically mean wetter and colder weather for the southwestern U.S. and California could really use a wetter than normal winter. Here in the upper Midwest, a moderate to strong El Nino usually means a milder and drier winter. A weak El Nino does not affect our winter weather too much. 

Mega El Nino of 1997-98

The current El Nino pattern has not yet reached a moderate level. Here is a recent discussion about this year’s El Nino, where a couple El Nino experts are hedging their bets as to whether this El Nino will grow in strength. If it does not, then it is more likely (though not guaranteed) that we will have more normal winter conditions. In the article are images comparing the strength of this year’s El Nino and the El Nino of 1997-98. The contrast is quite dramatic. The monthly El Nino discussion will arrive in a week to 10 days and we will get a better read on any strengthening.

In the short term, it will surely feel more like winter outside today. The weather has changed quickly and it looks like we will have our first hard frost of the Fall season tonight. A FREEZE WARNING is in effect for areas north of Marathon county for tonight. A FROST ADVISORY is in effect for the rest of central and southern Wisconsin. We might have a touch of frost on Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well. Overall, it looks like cooler than normal weather will continue for the next week to 10 days.

Space News:

NASA’s LCROSS probe is aiming for a different lunar crater. The original crater was judged to have too many “negatives” for getting a good result of water detection. The new crater increases the odds of a “good find”. In case you were unaware, the LCROSS mission includes sending an impactor into the lunar surface. Instruments will then analyze the ejecta (debris that flies into the air) and see if there is water. This event is planned for October 9th. Hopefully they will get some good video and pictures. There is nothing like smashing objects into one another. The Deep Impact mission was spectacular.

When it comes to humans traveling to Mars, one of the main negative factors is time. Most experts estimate it will take a little more than 500 days. Here is an old concept “the two burn” that could cut the time of the trip in half. However, it does require fueling up in space (near the moon), and then there is the matter of getting back to earth.

This story about a potential new dark matter/energy detector brought up some old question marks (in my mind anyway), about the nature and evolution of the universe. I am willing to mostly accept the standard theory of the universe and its evolution (Big bang and expansion), however, when 95% of the universe is still undetectable, even after years of searching with our most advanced instruments, it doesn’t boost my confidence very much. Lingering in the recesses of my mind is the elegant “constant creation” theory proposed by Fred Hoyle. For those who are a bit skeptical, another theory has been proposed to explain away the “95%-of-the-universe-is-undetectable-for-years-on-end” problem. This one, proposed by mathematicians, claims a large wave in space-time is making distant galaxies appear to speed up.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, Freeze, Space