The day has arrived. The last day of the year. We survived 2012 and it is time to reveal our top 3 weather events of 2012 for Northcentral Wisconsin. First, I will repost numbers 10 through 4 in case you weren’t paying attention last week.

• 10. The number 10 weather event was killing frost(s) in April. This would normally not be anything special because frost occurs very frequently in Wsiconsin during the month of April. What made the frost in April more significant this year is that temperatures had gotten so warm in March. It was warm enough in March to cause many fruit crops and trees to start growing and blossoming. Those blossoms were “ripe for the picking” so to speak, when the frost came around in April. Many apple orchards in Northcentral Wisconsin lost almost their entire crops. Other fruit trees were similarly hard hit.
• 9. October of 2012 was the 7th wettest October on record. We recorded 5.49 inches of rain during the month in Wausau. Some spots had even more. This might not have made the list except for the fact that it was also the wettest month of 2012 and the rain came too late to do much good. The growing season, which had been very dry, was over by the time we recived enough moisture to be beneficial to the crops.
• 8. Did I mention that 2012 was a warm year? It turns out that 10 out of the 12 months during 2012 were above normal, most of them were significantly above normal. The only two months that were below normal on temps were September and October. Even those two months were just barely below normal. 2012 was not a year when we had to complain about the cold too much. In fact, I think this year I have probably heard the least amount of complaints about “cold weather” in my entire career. It was a nice respite. Most years, most people complain nearly contantly about how cold it is, which always makes me wonder why more people do not move to warmer places.
• 7. Making it to number 7 on the list is a non-event. There was hardly any severe weather in the area. Since most of the year was quite warm, one might think there would have been more opportunity for severe weather to develop. Interestingly, sometimes it can be too warm. If there is not enough cold air to form cold fronts at the surface, or form instability higher in the atmosphere, then thunderstorms just won’t form. Of course, it was also quite dry for extended periods of time. If there is not enough moisture in the air then we will not end up with thunderstorms, and thus little severe weather. The most active period of severe weather was from June 14th through the 20th when we had a few rounds of thunderstorms and some tornado warnings in Marathon and Langlade counties.
• 6 – A very warm winter with little snow. This was a continuation of a trend that began in December of 2011. December (2011), January (2012), and February (2012) were all about 6 degrees above normal. Snowfall during January in Wausau was 12.9 inches but it fell over many different days and was not enough to open snowmobile trails in most of central Wisconsin. During February 12.2 inches of snow was reported in Wausau but most of that – 6.9 inches – fell on the last 2 days of the month. Snowmobile trails were able to open for a few days in some counties during early March. Because of the warm and relatively snowless Winter, the skating rink in downtown Wausau was never able to be opened. Total snowfall for the year (not including today’s light snow) in Wausau was 46.2 inches which is about 13 inches below normal for the year.
• 5 – A strong Winter storm on December 20th. This one should be fresh in everyone’s mind as it occurred only about a week ago. It was the biggest snowstorm of the year in Wausau with a record 10.9 inches for the day. 6 to 10 inches of snow was fairly common across much of central Wisconsin. The highest snowfall in the state was in the Madison area where some locations reported close to 20 inches. In addition to heavy snow there was some gusty wind which created blizzard conditions in the southern part of the area and southern third of the state. Check this past blog post for some extra details on the storm.
• 4 – Another strong Winter storm makes the list at number 4. This is the one that was referenced earlier, the one that occurred on February 28th and 29th. We ranked this one higher than the December 20th storm because the highest snow totals in the state were in our area. Around 20 inches of snow was reported in many locations in the northwoods. In Wausau the total was 6.9 inches. It was just enough snow to open a handful of snowmobile trails in the area, but it didn’t last long. By the 10th of March it was melting away fast. Check this past blog entry for a map of the snow totals from this storm. Check this blog post for additional information.

And now on to the top three which should come as no surprise to anyone – as they once again are related to the warm year we had.

• 3. Heat waves! We had several heat waves during the year and the worst was from July 2nd to July 6th. In Wausau we had 5 days in a row with high temps in the 90s. On three of those days we had highs of 96. The 96 degree high temp on the 4th of July set a new record. The 96 degrees on the 5th of July tied the old record. High temps hit 100 in the southern part of our area and in the southern part of the state. As mentioned previously, it ended up being the 2nd hottest July on record in Wausau. Check these blog posts for a review of the July heat waves: Comparing to the 1930s, Holiday heat records. And, the southern half of the area had hotter temps during the July heat wave(s) because we had…
• 2. Severe Drought. It was bad. I remember driving into southern Wisconsin over the 4th of July and already by that time, everything was brown. The drought was quite severe in the southern half of the area, south of Marathon county, through the first 6 months of the year and then spread northward into early Fall. Thankfully, the southern half of the state did receive some beneficial rain later in the year, but it was not enough to save non-irrigated crops.
• 1. As many of you probably guessed, the number 1 weather event of the year was the record warm March. We had so much unusual warmth during March that we smashed all kinds of records all over the state, including here in Northcentral Wisconsin. We tied or broke 20 different daily records for warmth. It really felt a lot like early Summer in the middle of the month. All the snow melted and vegetation started turning green. We broke the old warm March monthly record (from 1910) by 2.5 degrees. Some further reading: Warmest March on record, Does a hot March foretell a hot Summer?, A warm spell for the ages.

And now a few more fun lists looking back at 2012 and looking forward to 2013:

• Actually this first one is something more dramatic and positive than fun. It is a look at amazing medical technologies that grew-up a bit in 2012 and should make a big impact in 2013. Medical progress continues at a rapid pace. Hopefully soon we will be able to more effectively combat the ravages of aging.
• Wired’s top image galleries of 2012. Many of which I have shared throughout the year.
• Wired’s top science images of the year.
• Some of the “big numbers” behind the big science and technology stories of the year.
• 100 best space photos of the year. A great gallery if you love space, but be sure to have a lot of time on your hands.
• What will be some of the top science stories of 2013. This article has a few cool candidates, including a comet that could outshine the moon.
• Five technologies that could continue to change our world in 2013.
• And how about 13 tech items you might have caught wind of but probably will not come to fruition in 2013.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Records, Seasonal Items, Top 10 List, Weather History, Weather NEws

I heard someone mention the other day that the current drought and heat is just like the 1930s. I think that is taking things bit too far. We tend to have short memories and the 1930s are a long time ago as compared to the normal human lifespan. A quick look at this wikipedia page or this youtube video will remind you of how dry, hot, and devastating the 1930s were in the U.S. In Wausau, 9 of the top 20 warmest Summers we have recorded in the last 115 years or so occurred during the 1930s. Only 1935 failed to make it into the top 20. It ranks number 31 on the list of warm Summers. So it was not only hot back then, it was hot EVERY Summer for a decade. I shudder to think of the media coverage, intense anthropogenic global warming (AGW) discussions, and political machinations that would occur if the U.S. suffered a multi-year drought and heat wave like the 1930s. It is such a distressing thought, I want to block the image out of my mind and stop writing right now. Alas, we should not be surprised if such a pattern did develop because multi-year and even multi-decade droughts were much more common in North America prior to the 20th century.

Nothing growing in this field during the dust bowl years

That is not to say that there are NO comparisons to the 1930s. 1936 had the warmest July and 1933 had the warmest Summer (June-July-August) we have ever recorded here in Wausau (going back to the late 1800s). This year we are on pace to break both of those records. The mean temperature so far this July is 77.3. In 1936 the mean temperature was 76.7. It looks like we are going to be close to breaking that record. Current extended forecasts indicate a more substantial cool down could hit the area for the last few days of the month. If it does materialize, then we will probably not break the record. Otherwise, we are in the running.

For the warmest Summer record, at this point we are certainly in good shape to break that one, but we still have about a month and a half to go, which means a lot could happen. In 1933 the mean Summer temperature was 71.3. So far this year we are at 72.8. What is interesting to note is that our temperatures this year have not been as extreme as the 1930s, with multiple days at 100 or above (at least not in Wausau) but it has been persistently warm. Every day so far this July we have experienced high temperatures in the 80s or 90s. I forget what the 70s feel like.

Which brings me back to our “short-term memories”. Just remember that the last time we had a high of 98 in Wausau was 2006. After 2006, high temperatures in the 90s were very sparse. In 2009 we didn’t even get close to 90 in July (85 was the warmest). It wasn’t until last year (2011) when multiple 90 degree days become more prominent again. I also remember back to last year when on first weekend of May, there was still a large ice flow on the bank of the trout stream I was fishing. That is only 14 months ago when we were emerging from an abnormally long & snowy Winter.

For more on how the heat this year compares to past years in the U.S. as a whole check out this graphic.

Of course, it is common sense that the drought is linked to the heat wave, but it is one of those things that science sometimes needs to confirm, and it was confirmed in this recent study.

And going back further in the past, there is more evidence to indicate that the time of the Roman civilization and the Medieval Warm period were warmer than we are experiencing now. This does not mean that AGW is not happening, or at least a part of what is going on now, but it does help put the longer term climate in perspective and help us frame possible challenges going forward.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Heat, Records, Summer

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) released its Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) on 28 March.  You can read the the full press release from the following link.  http://ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_launch_media_advisory.pdf

The report was authored by 220 scientists from 62 counties around the world.  It was based off of hundreds of studies from across the globe that have been peer-reviewed at least 2 to 3 times.  Some of the major points in the press release regarding climate change over the coming decades include.

• Heat waves will likely increase in frequency, duration, and intensity.
• Sea levels will very likely continue rising, causing increased coastal flooding.
• Heavy precipitation events will likely to increase in frequency especially in higher latitudes and tropical regions during the summer and in northern mid latitudes during the winter.
• It is somewhat probable that droughts will increase in duration and intensity especially in central and southern Europe, the Mediterranean Area, North America, Central America, Mexico, northeast Brazil, and Southern Africa.
• It is extremely likely that the frequency of daily record high temperatures will increase and daily record low temperatures will decrease across the globe.
• It is likely that economic losses from climate-related disasters will increase.  (Part of this is due to greater population with time living in risky areas).

You can read the full 600 page IPCC report here.  Good luck!  http://ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_launch_media_advisory.pdf

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Drought, Education, Heat, International Weather, Natural Disasters, Science, Weather NEws, World Weather

Tony asked about air conditioning use in yesterday’s blog entry. I think I might be the least attached to air conditioning out of all the people I know – at least at home – just ask my wife. We don’t have central air. We only use one window unit for one room in our house. I usually do not turn it on unless the temperature in the house rises up to 80 or above (and it is especially humid). We don’t use air conditioning much in order to save energy and money. Air c0nditioners are huge energy hogs. In fact, as I blogged about a couple weeks ago, newer air conditioners, because they have to use different refrigerants - have a bigger carbon footprint than older models. They are bigger and require more resources to manufacture.

I was thrilled 2 years ago when we only had a few days in the 80s and a couple in the 90s. July of 2009 was particularly cool. It was a rare Summer when I didn’t even put in the window unit air conditioner. I was happy to save a lot of money by not using it. I could probably survive just fine without any air conditioning at home. It helps that I am relatively young. As we age, our bodies have a harder time regulating internal temperature and thus the environmental temperature matters a lot more. Keeping the ambient temperature in a comfortable range (with air conditioning and heating) is crucial.

Work is another matter. As Tony mentioned, our electronic equipment would not work all that well in hotter conditions. It would also be more difficult performing many tasks. Even office work would be uncomfortable if the indoor temperature routinely rose above 80. It is hard to imagine how people got by back in the early 20th century (especially in the southern half of the country) - but they did. Offices and factories used fans and worked at cooler times of the day. I remember a story my Grandpa Schmidt told me about growing up in the 1930s. There were a few years during the 1930s when they had to deal with major heat waves. At times, the high temps would rise above 100 for several days in a row. During these 100 degree days, my Grandpa and his family would do chores in the morning and in the evening and then spend the middle of the day underground in their root cellar/tornado shelter. Along with the hot weather they would also have some significant drought. They had to cut brush to feed the cows because all the grass had burned up. So I guess the moral of the story is we should be thankful for air conditioning, and during times of drought for irrigation and free trade (to maintain crop growth and food supplies). Now if we could only develop some better alternative energy supplies to power our air conditioning. That would be grand!

Speaking of dry weather, the latest US Drought Monitor countiues to show extreme to exceptional drought across the deep south, Texas, and New Mexico. Here in Wisconsin we have been fortunate. There have been a couple periods of dry weather but not enough to change our drought status. The Monitor continues to show Wisconsin 100% drought-free which does not happen very often. If we have some scattered thunderstorms around the state over the next few days (which seems likely) then perhaps the drought-free status will last a while longer.

The main problem over the next few days will be the building heat. High temps will be close to 90 on Saturday and then rise into the low to mid 90s for Sunday and remain in that range for much of next week. With high humidity, the heat index will likely be above 100 degrees for several days in a row.

Have a pleasant Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Heat, Summer

I am issuing a clarion call to make plans to enjoy the weather during the middle of this work week! Unless you are one of the folks who really enjoys heat and humidity (such as Don Clark, a radio personality who used to work in the area, who wanted 95 and humid as many days as possible), you will really enjoy the cool down over the next few days.

The weather wasn’t too hot over the weekend but it was humid. Highs will once again reach the mid to upper 80s today making it a tad bit uncomfortable. Then we are looking at highs only in the 75 to 80 range from Tuesday through Wednesday. Wednesday is looking like a particularly gorgeous day with plenty of sun and low humidity. So why am I wasting blog time on a couple of days in the 70s? Because the heat will be back on for this upcoming weekend, and it might last for a few days. Highs will be near 90 on Saturday and then reach the low 90s for Sunday and Monday. The humidity will be quite high as well during this time frame. The high heat might even last a couple more days into the middle of next week. It looks like these few days coming up from the 16th through the 20th or so could be the zenith of our Summer, of the warm season. Right now I am looking at somewhat tolerable low 90s for most of the heat wave, but if there is more sunshine than expected we could be talking mid 90s. The record highs for this time frame are in the mid to upper 90s so we will be close. One key to how warm it gets will be if there is any rain or thunderstorms. If we have enough rainfall (a couple more downpours later this week), then evapotranspiration will keep a bit more of a lid on the temps.

One thing you will no doubt hear a lot more about later this week and into early next week is anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Nowadays, almost every heat wave is blamed on AGW (aside: some researchers and science journalists have more recently and accurately portrayed heat waves as “possibly” being due to, or partially caused by AGW), and with high temps possibly hitting 100 and the heat index certainly rising above 100 for many locations in the center of the nation (maybe even Chicago) for several days in a row, the subject will no doubt be on the lips of many.

Having a heat wave and setting record high temps are not that noteworthy in and of themselves, but if we have more of such heat waves this year and in coming years, that would be in line with predictions from AGW computer models. Of course the general theory is that as carbon dioxide increases in the atmosphere, the temperature will go up. Tony re-capped the latest trend of emissions in this recent blog post. Special note, most emissions are no longer due to the U.S., they are from China. However, with an increasingly interconnected international society, it is hard to pin the blame on either the consumers or the producers.

Even though carbon emissions are going up, there is no guarantee that temps will follow suit in a linear fashion. In fact, abrupt climate change has occurred a few times in the past due mostly to changing ocean circulations, not so much from carbon dioxide density changes. It has been found that El Nino has not always been as prevalent as it is now. Besides changes in ocean patterns, there are many other factors which play into the climate system such as biosphere changes and sun activity. Although humans are a powerful force of change on the planet, we are not in complete control. Low sun activity such as was recorded during the little ice age and caused the demise of the Norse colonies in Greenland could return. Different rates of carbon storage within the different ecosystems, such as forests could make a difference. Tropical forests could end up storing a lot more carbon if they are protected (and more are coming under management). Even things as esoteric as cosmic rays could influence the future climate. After many years of ivory tower dismissals, research is giving more credence that cosmic ray flux can change cloudiness in the atmosphere.

Thus I am interested to see many people still trying hard to fit every small movement of temperatures into a human-caused scenario. Many of you are probably aware of the fact that 1998 was the warmest year on instrumental record and then global average temps declined slightly for the next 10 years. Perhaps it was a natural cool cycle super-imposed on a long term uptrend? I wouldn’t be surprised. But some want to argue that the “pause” in theoretical  AGW was solely due to human actions. At least one researcher has claimed that the slightly cooler trend over the last decade was caused by China emitting more sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. Sulfur dioxide tends to block out sunlight and cool the earth. This happens naturally through the action of volcanoes.

Along with the trend of blaming every change in the climate on human action, as mentioned earlier, there is also a trend of associating every extreme weather event with AGW. I discussed the heat above. In addition, some scientists are claiming the big floods, fires, and deadly tornado season are a symptom of AGW and it will only get worse in coming years. Just anecdotally, it seems I have seen about the same amount of extreme weather during my lifetime, whether it was in the 70s and 80s or now. The only thing I have witnessed more of (again just anecdotally) is warm weather.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Heat, Natural Disasters

With record high temperatures expected Tuesday in Wisconsin and the Midwest coupled with muggy air, it will be downright dangerous to your health if you are not careful.  In fact danger from heat is nothing new the U.S.  It is one of the main weather killers.  Annually about 162 people die in the U.S. from hot weather.  Some years it is much worst than that.  Do your remember in the summer of 1995 when over 600 people died in Milwaukee and Chicago?  Most were elderly folks in poorer neighborhoods and apartment complexes.  The buildings in the middle of the cities just didn’t cool off.  Even at night temperature stayed around 85 degrees in the buildings and it was too much for many to handle.

The National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory for western and southern Wisconsin for Tuesday afternoon.  This means the Heat Index could top 100 degrees.  The heat index is how it “feels” to your body when the temperature and humidity is combined.  It is harder for you to cool off when it is humid because your sweat doesn’t evaporate well.  The evaporation of sweat helps to cool your body otherwise because the heat from your body is used to convert the liquid perspiration into water vapor.

HEAT WAVE SAFETY TIPS

• Drink extra fluids, especially water.
• Slow down, avoid heavy or prolonged physical exertion.
• Go in air conditioned places as much as possible.
• Go in the shade as much as possible.
• Wear light colored, light weight clothing.
• Avoid sunburn.  Your body has a hard time regulating its temperature if you are sunburned.  Besides it hurts!
• Check on the elderly.
• Make sure your pets have good ventilation and ample water.
• Don’t leave your kids or pets unattended in a parked car.  Even with the windows open it can get excessively hot.
• Eat more frequent small meals, rather than one big one.
• Try to do chores and work in the early morning and evening when it is somewhat cooler.

To learn more about the various types of Heat Advisories and Warnings the National Weather Service issues, and to learn about signs of heat illness, visit this website.   http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/heat/index.shtml

Posted under Heat, Records, Summer, Weather Safety

See Kristen’s recent post about the east coast heat wave for a primer on the following discussion.

For many years, every heat wave, every record high, every strong hurricane, nearly every bad thing that happened in the world, no matter how tenuously linked to the weather, was blamed on anthropogenic global warming (AGW). I take it as a sign that strong advocates of AGW theory have learned a lesson when not many people are linking the recent heat waves in the eastern U.S. to AGW and clamoring for innumerable new taxes, laws, and regulations to strictly limit and reduce energy use by humans. In fact, one of the more refreshing articles came from newscientist.com – mentioning that one heat wave or one warm year does not prove AGW is fact. It is only a small piece of evidence that goes into the climate puzzle.

This is a timely and lonely article in what I would hope is the start of bringing more people together on scientific and political climate issues. For about 10 to 15 years starting around the early 1990s, AGW theorists and media advocates used annual increases in global temperatures to brow beat everyone into accepting the climate model/AGW predictions as gospel. Dissenters, even people with legitimate scientific questions, were treated horribly – publicly humiliated. It is no wonder then that after 1998, when the global temperature actually went down slightly and remained fairly level, that the humiliated wanted to turn the tables. With the recent flubs in the IPCC report and the climategate emails, revenge was getting easy.

So now comes a warm year similar to 1998, and no doubt there will be some increased discussion about climate. Thankfully, so far, it hasn’t been as heated or condescending as back in the 1990s and early 2000s. The newscientist articleis a step in the right direction – however, judging by the comment section of the article, we still have a long way to go. Many of the commenters still seem to want heated rhetoric (to ”rip” AGW skeptics) instead of level-headed factual presentation.

If you are more worried about AGW because of the recent heat waves, remember that scientific progress into solutions continues. I am not talking about geo-engineering solutions like putting aeresols into the atmosphere to shade the sun and other potentially dangerous ideas, but about the rapid development and deployment of cleaner energy solutions, and about the prospect of removing carbon dioxide from the air. Even if human carbon emissions are only a part of recent warming (as I believe), then removing the excess could prove some benefit.  I was heartened to see an article recently that mentioned the prospect of removing carbon dioxide from the air (relatively difficult because it is a very stable molecule). One group of researchers has even developed a design (just on paper at this point) for a machine that would use solar energy to take carbon dioxide out of the air. They have made a bold claim that with widespread deployment of their machine they could remove excess carbon dioxide from the air in as little as 10 years. That is a pretty bold claim! Details in the article are scant. Still, breaking down carbon dioxide is a known process that only requires an efficient method to get it done – using a clean energy source. The STEP process mentioned in the article might be the start of something good.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Heat