The forecasts are in….and it seems everyone is predicting an active hurricane season.  The season which officially begins June 1st and runs through Nov 30th is being forecasted as an above average one by both Colorado State University and AccuWeather who both came out with their forecasts this past week.  One of the main reasons we are seeing the above average forecasts is the warm ocean waters

AccuWeather came out with there forecast last week which calls for 15 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 of them major.

CSU is forecasting 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.  A major hurricane is a Cat 3 or higher with winds above 111 mph.

Last year we saw 19 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major storms.  The average in a years breaks down like this: 9-12 tropical storms, 5-7 hurricanes and 1-3 major.  Last season was compared to the most active season, 2005.  If you talk to most folks though it didn’t seem active, espcially for people affected by the ‘canes.  The reason is most storms either stayed out to sea or affect areas besides the United States like Mexico and the Carribean islands. 

To read the full reports you can check out CSU description and AccuWeathers anyalisis.

Posted under Hurricanes, International Weather, Oceans, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Tropics, Weather History, Weather NEws

We have finally concluded the 2010 snowmelt contest by drawing the top two prizes (R-store gift cards) today. Here is the final list of winners:

• 1st place 250$ gift card – Barb Whiteside (Wausau)
• 2nd place $150 gift card – Jim Aue (Auburndale)
• 3rd place $100 gift card – Sandy Behrens (Tomahawk)
• 4th place $50 gift card – Tonya Muzynoski (Schofield)
• 5th place $25 gift card – Shelly Hoppe (Aniwa)

Everyone else who predicted the correct snowmelt date (May 29th) will receive a car wash coupon from the R-store. Prizes will be mailed out late this week. Thanks to everyone who entered the contest! It is always fun to see all the predictions. Thanks also to the R-stores of Northcentral Wisconsin for providing great prizes.

Continuing on the discussion of the Atlantic hurricane season that Kristen and Brian have been posting about, another group of forecasters at Florida State are also projecting an active hurricane season. Their basis for the forecast is a new computer model that began operation just last year and performed very well.

“The 2009 forecast, the (COAPS) model’s first, was on target: It predicted a below-average season, with a mean of eight named storms with four of them developing into hurricanes. There were nine named storms with three that became hurricanes.”

For this year, the COAPS model is predicting a mean of 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes. Of course what matters most is how many storms make landfall and at what strength. Remember, you can keep track of hurricanes and tropical storms at www.nhc.noaa.gov

Have a fine Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Snowmelt 2010, Tropics

Since my last blog was about the upcoming hurricane season I thought I would give a quick update. The National Hurricane Center released their tropical activity forecast on Thursday.  Here is what they are forecasting. 

• 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
• Normal is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and two major

In their words it should be an “active to extremely active” season.   2005 was the most active season with 28 named storms.  Since 1995 8 of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for most named storms.

For more information check out the article from NOAA.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Hurricanes, Tropics