We have heard through the last few years about how the weather is supposedly getting more “wild” or extreme, primarily due to anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and there is some data that seems to back this up. Insured losses have been increasing in recent years and last year was the worst. 2011 was the costliest year of natural disasters on record, totaling 380 billion across the world!

One thing to remember, and something many commentators have pointed out, is that this is a record for INSURED losses. This plays a part in trying to assess any increase in extreme weather. Just because insured losses hit a record, does not necessarily mean that there were more devastating weather events. If could be that the worst weather of the year just happened to hit highly populated “expensive” areas of the world. The previous record year was 2005 when category 5 hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the gulf coast of the U.S. including the major population center of New Orleans. There have been other years with category 5 hurricanes that were unremarkable for insured losses because the hurricanes did not strike populated areas. So in order to know for sure that extreme weather is increasing, we will need to consider objective data besides insured losses. Climatologists have been busy tabulating the number of flood events, amounts of rainfall, number of heat waves, the number of record temperature events, and many other things. So far, the one trend that has been confirmed is that the frequency of heavy rain events is increasing in many parts of the world. At this page you can find some data about severe weather (including heavy rain) and whether or not it is increasing.

Satellite image of hurricane Katrina

Many other trends in extreme weather have not been robustly confirmed. There has been much debate about whether hurricanes have increased in number and/or intensity in recent decades. Many people expect this should be (or will be) the case because the temperature of the oceans has gone up a little and the heat content of the ocean is one of the key drivers of hurricanes. Reality has not kept up with these expectations. Hurricanes are complex weather phenomena and the temperature of the ocean is only one factor. Wind shear is quite important as well. A recent study by Christopher Landsea has found no substantial direct link between hurricanes and AGW and suggests that effects will be negligible through 2100. Once Landsea factored in population growth along the coast of the U.S. and better monitoring techniques, the apparent increase in insured losses and number/intensity of hurricanes was not substantial.

Japan Tsunami

Which brings us back to the record year of insured losses in 2011. It would not have been a record year for insured losses of natural disasters except for one event and you can probably guess what it was – the Japan earthquake and tsunami.  The earthquake and tsunami resulted in an estimated 210 billion in insured losses. Taking out that one event and we end up with only 170 billion in losses. It was still a bad year for “bad” weather and natural disasters, but 170 billion is 50 billion less than the previous record of 220 billion in 2005. Since earthquakes and tsunamis are not directly weather related, this should be kept in mind when using insured losses as a metric of whether extreme weather is increasing.

When discussing extreme weather and AGW, the vast majority of the content is negative. The basic premise is that AGW is going to theoretically destroy the environment. Once in a while though, something positive makes it into the discussion. In the past, the few positive aspects of the theoretical future warming hinge upon more areas around the poles becoming more habitable. The frozen north of Canada (and Siberia) might become a productive growing area.

Extent of the last ice age

Another potential positive (I think it is a good thing anyway), is that theoretical AGW might stall the onset of the next ice age. According to some geologists we are already overdo for an ice age. According to this latest research, an new ice age should begin within the next 1,500 years but the co-authors claim AGW will delay or prevent it. This is a good thing because if the planet became 5 degrees colder instead of 5 degrees warmer, we would have much bigger problems, in my opinion. Colder temps would mean an expansion of frozen tundra and the ice caps and likely lead to much less rainfall due to colder ocean temps and more water being locked up as ice at the poles. The would be much less space for agriculture. Much suffering would ensue. I am not saying hooray for AGW, but I am saying that delaying the next ice age is a good thing. If it a new ice age was upon us, we would probably be compelled to spend a lot of resources figuring out ways to warm up the planet.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Hurricanes, International Weather, Natural Disasters, Severe Weather, Storms, Tsunami, World Weather

Anthony left a very timely comment in the blog yesterday asking about the La Nin/El Nino (ENSO) effects on the weather with particular focus on the wild weather we are having so far this year in the U.S. I say “timely” because I just gave a presentation about El Nino and La Nina to the Central Wisconsin Boating club AND the latest monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion from the Climate Prediction Center was released yesterday.

First the details on the current situation. The La Nina gradually came to an end in May. Now we are seeing neutral surface temperatures in the central Pacific ocean. What do neutral ENSO temperatures mean for our weather? Not much really. All it means is that La Nina or El Nino will not be affecting our weather this Summer. Neither of these has a very strong effect on our Summer weather anyway. The major effects usually happen during the cold season.

What lies in the future? Most of the CPC ENSO models are predicting essentiallyneutral conditions through the end of this year. Once again the COLA CCSM3 is the very odd “man” out predicting a record El Nino to develop (around 2.6 degrees above normal). At least this is better than last month when this same model was predicting a super-mega-monster El Nino of almost 3.0 degrees above normal. Even though the average of the models is still predicting neutral conditions, I did notice a slight shift toward the warmer side of ENSO so perhaps a weak El Nino is in the cards. Just remember that even though El Nino and La Nina are opposites, they don’t always follow each other. It is not like a perfect sine wave oscillation.

Now on to the question as to whether La Nina played a part in this year’s wild weather (mainly during the Spring). My instinct is to say yes. At the NWS Green Bay media seminar last month they shared data showing that La Nina typically did not have a strong influence on our Winter weather here in Wisconsin, however I have noticed that the last three La Nina Winters have been colder than normal with above normal snowfall (in Wausau). Perhaps a new trend is developing that wasn’t present in the past. With the (seemingly) La Nina induced colder weather in the northern half of the country this Spring, and warmer than normal temps over the Gulf of Mexico and southern U.S., it certainly seemed to set up a clash of air-masses a bit stronger than in past years. So I would say (preliminarily) that La Nina did have some effect on the wilder weather (and severe weather) this Spring.

A more significant ENSO Summer-time effect that might come into play is in relation to the hurricane season. When there is an El Nino occurring in the Pacific ocean, it usually has a dampening effect on hurricanes in the Antlantic. When the ENSO pattern is either neutral or in the La Nina phase then more stronger hurricanes are likely to occur and they tend to occur closer to the shores of the U.S. In fact, during the 2005 hurricane season when the ENSO temps were neutral, we had two category 5 hurricanes in the Gulf, Katrina and Rita. There is no guarantee we will have a repeat this year, just that stornger hurricanes are more likely.

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Remaining Snow as of June 9th

How about an update on the snowmelt contest? I hiked up to the snow once again yesterday and took a picture. The 90 degree weather from earlier this week really did a number on the snow but there is still some left. Due to the colder trend for the next couple of days I think the contest will be prolonged into next week. I don’t think it will quite make it to the 20th but we shall see. Be sure to check here for more updates and pictures throughout next week.

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Lastly, a little eye-candy for you on this Friday to help you whittle away the work-day. Perhaps you have seen this around the net already – the biggest explosion ever seen on the sun. It might not be the biggest ever, but it the biggest scientists have ever observed. This one was unique in that some of the plasma from the explosion rained back down on the sun. Check out the cool video here.

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, Hurricanes, Snowmelt 2011, Space

The forecasts are in….and it seems everyone is predicting an active hurricane season.  The season which officially begins June 1st and runs through Nov 30th is being forecasted as an above average one by both Colorado State University and AccuWeather who both came out with their forecasts this past week.  One of the main reasons we are seeing the above average forecasts is the warm ocean waters

AccuWeather came out with there forecast last week which calls for 15 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 of them major.

CSU is forecasting 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.  A major hurricane is a Cat 3 or higher with winds above 111 mph.

Last year we saw 19 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major storms.  The average in a years breaks down like this: 9-12 tropical storms, 5-7 hurricanes and 1-3 major.  Last season was compared to the most active season, 2005.  If you talk to most folks though it didn’t seem active, espcially for people affected by the ‘canes.  The reason is most storms either stayed out to sea or affect areas besides the United States like Mexico and the Carribean islands. 

To read the full reports you can check out CSU description and AccuWeathers anyalisis.

Posted under Hurricanes, International Weather, Oceans, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Tropics, Weather History, Weather NEws

When reading different reports on climate and AGW (anthropogenic global warming) it can sometimes be confusing to decifer the results. The headlines almost always portray the most extreme interpretation or the worst case scenario. Some of this has to do with the political attitudes of many environmental reporters but also with the propensity to grab attention. Scientific-ky headlines don’t grab as much attention as “doom & gloom”.

One such case happened just the other week. The headline was “Hawaii will face more frequent hurricanes“. The headline is reasonable and true – based on a recent study. The only thing that is hard to figure out is how much will the possible increase in hurricane activity be. The average number of hurricanes in the Pacific every year is 85. Hawaii ends up with about 1 to 2 hurricanes per decade. Tim Li of the University of Honolulu used climate models to figure out how AGW might affect hurricanes in the Pacific. He found that by the end of this century, hurricanes in southeast Pacific will decrease by about 31 percent. In contrast, the model projected a 65 percent increase in hurricanes for the north central Pacific (the region around Hawaii).

So what does this mean for Hawaii? Let us use 1.5 hurricanes per decade for Hawaii (halfway between 1 to 2 per decade) to keep the math simple. Does a 65% increase in hurricane activity in the region around Hawaii mean they will now experience 2.5 hurricanes per decade (2 to 3 per decade). From the information provided, this would seem to be the case. If so, is it worth the ink? It is interesting but – I would say – not earth shattering. It is only about 1 more hurricane per decade. I doubt too many people in Hawaii are too worried. I imagine they might be more worried if the ocean levels rise another foot or two – as currently predicted.

One last thing I want to mention is that I enjoyed a nice 25 mile bike ride in the countryside around Marshfield today. It was the annual breast cancer awareness ride (walk and run this year as well) sponsored by the Sports Den. The owners Denny and Joan organized a great event and raised a lot of money for cancer research. Three cheers for Denny, Joan, and the Sports Den. The weather was awesome and I met a lot of great people. I will update the blog post with some pictures as soon as I find a computer that can read an SD card….lol. I will probably have to send/upload them from home.

Have a nice evening! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Viewer pictures

I was so busy ranting about AGW lawsuits yesterday that I forgot to mention the U.S. Drought Monitor. The great news is that the drought in Wisconsin has improved since last week. This is the first time this year (I am fairly sure) that we do not have any severe drought in the state. The severe drought category that was present in the far northeast part of the state last week has now diminished to moderate status. I would expect that this improving trend would continue except for the fact that this week has been dry and no rain is expected until the middle of next week. Therefore the drought situation should remain stable.

Alternative Energy:

Perhaps you came across this news perusing science and weather news over the last couple of days: Brazilian scientist proposes to generate electricity from air. This is not a proposal to capture the electricity from lightning strikes – something I have thought of before – it is a method to extract minute amounts of electricity from water droplets. Humid air would be the best target. While this sounds interesting in theory and probably works as described, I have my doubts that this method could ever generate any substantial amount of electricity at a competitive cost. The amount of of charge collected from each water droplet is very minuscule. It might take a massive installation in order to generate a usable current. So how does nature create such dramatic and large displays of electricity (lightning)? Through thunderstorms. Thunderstorms move truly massive amounts of air and separate positive and negative charges in the process. So how does lightning begin? Some researchers are looking at terrestrial gamma ray flashes as the “spark” of lightning.

Lightning is also an interesting subject in hurricane research. Lightning intensity and frequency change as a hurricane changes in strength. Researchers want to know how direct is the relationship in order to help with forecasting. To study lightning in hurricanes NASA is using autonomous drones - specifically the Global Hawk. For the latest on Danielle, Earl, and other tropical disturbances be sure to check the National Hurricane Center website.

Finishing up on the hurricane topic, there was an article recently that suggested major cities can attract hurricanes. Now this is not some magical force that cities exert from hundreds of miles away, it is only something that has shown up in computer simulations of hurricane movement when they get close to landfall. It turns out (according to the models) that “rougher” land surfaces make hurricanes change course a bit. The hurricanes move toward the land surfaces with more friction or roughness. In some coastal areas, large cities with big buildings produce more roughness than the surrounding landscape and thus could cause a hurricane path to shift a bit toward the city.

Have a good Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology, Tropics

I blogged about it already this weekend and Brian blogged last night about Danielle.  Well she was a hurricane and has now been downgraded to a Tropical Storm but it is likely she will become a hurricane again.  The path is still continuing mainly to the northwest and should have no impact to the United States through the weekend.  It could bring some worries to Bermuda though as models do take it close to the island.  The major weather system that is going to be over our area, a blocking high,  will actually play a huge role in this storm.  Since the high will be so strong over the eastern part of the US the storm will be “blocked” from making a westward movement towards the US and will turn to the north.  Here is a really sweet loop of Danielle- up close and personal. 

There is also another disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic.  This area is progressed to become our next tropical disturbance.  It has a 90% chance to make it to a tropical disturbance in the next two days. 

Although it has been a quiet year, several articles have been coming out reminding people that September is usually the most active month and just because we have been lucky so far does not mean we are in the clear.  Here is just one article.  It shows that we still could have 10 to 15 more storms in the 2010 year.   The numbers are just slightly down to account for the slow start we have season.  However we still have to major factors going for us in the tropics, weak wind shear and very warm ocean temperatures. 

Although this year has been slow this week is a reminder what we have seen in past years in August., Katrina in 2005 and Andrew in 1992. 

Posted under Hurricanes, Storms, Summer, Travel, Tropics

With what is forecasted to be an extremely active Atlantic Tropical Season, one may think it is turning out to be a dud…but not so fast.  We have yet to reach peak season, which arrives a month from now.  Tropical activity should really start to heat up quickly these next few weeks.   Tropical Season peaks in September because this in when the waters are warmest.

In the near future, it looks like things will remain relatively quiet.  Tropical Storm Colin has recently diminished.  There is a slight chance the remnants of Colin may reorganize and regain tropical storm status in the coming days, but shouldn’t be much of a threat to land.  There is also Tropical Invest 92 in the southern Caribbean.  This disturbance may also eventually strengthen to tropical storm strength, but will stay way south of the U.S. mainland.

This tropical season the Gulf’s main concern of course is how a tropical storm or hurricane would affect the oil spill.  So far, thankfully we haven’t found out.   But in all reality, hurricane season is just getting started.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Hurricanes, Tropics

Alex made landfall a week ago tonight and it looks like we could be talking about our next storm Bonnie within the next day.  The National Hurricane Center has was would be Bonnie in a 80% chance of formation with in the next 48 hours.  It is currently spinning near where we saw Alex last week, right off the Texas, Mexico coast. 

The exact location is 290 miles southeast of the Texas/Mexico border.  It is moving west northwest at around 10 to 15 mph.  It became better organized just today and even with in the last 6 hours.  At the 2pm outlook they had the disturbance in a 50% chance of becoming a tropical storm but the latest advisory which came out at 7pm bumped that up to 80%. Right now they have two reconnaissance planes conducting research on the wave and so far it seems like a disturbance could be forming.  The environment is also conductive for further development.   So it is quite likely we will see our next storm and advisories by late tonight or early on Thursday. 

 Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Hurricanes, Summer, Tropics

One more round…yep that its.  We are going to deal with storms overnight again but then we will see a break. The greatest threat will be flooding from heavy rains and strong winds.  A ridge will build in this week and it looks like sunshine but cooler temps are in our forecast! We have only seen 6 dry days in June but it looks like we will really add to that through this week.

It is amazing to me that the grass count is so low for pollen.  I have to say that I have had the worst allergies of the year today.  I try to avoid taking medication that will make me drowsy but I had no choice because I could stop sniffling and sneezing.  I know alot of people have complained about allergies this year, it was one of the worst years we have seen, but until recently I hadn’t been sick at all.  Wow, now do I understand what people were going through!

Alright now I have a game for anyone who wants to take a stab at it!  This is actually a really neat tool from the National Weather Service office in Peachtree, GA.  They call it the HotSeat… I don’t want to give to many details away but it will put you in charge. See how good you can do.  If anything it is a great learning tool and will show you what we look at.

Last but not least…Say hello to Alex, he is our first named storm of the Atlantic season. 

Here are also some pictures from the library talk I did in Nekoosa.

Have a great night! Meteorologsit Kristen Connolly  

Posted under Allergies, Flooding, Severe Weather, Storms, Summer, Tropics, Weather History, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

The Atlantic Hurricane Season has officially begun and most well known hurricane forecast offices are predicting a very active season.  Thankfully June is not nearly as active as the late summer/early fall months when the water temperatures are much warmer. 

The bad news is a high percentage of June cyclones develop in the Gulf Of Mexico.  This hasa lot of scientists thinking what affect a hurricane could have on the oil spill?  and vice verse.. What affect the oil spill could have on a Hurricane?

Now hopefully the latest attempt to stop the spill will work and we don’t ever have to worry about this…..

I think it is safe to say a hurricane would certainly and significantly heighten the ecological disaster.  The intense winds/rough seas/storm surge accompanied with a hurricane would only spread the spill, possibly even into waterways well inland.  It would be a horrible and that’s why people have already begun to speculate what would happen.  You could debate all night and no one would know for sure how big of a disaster this would be.

The other question is, what affect would the oil spill have on the Hurricane.  Would it weaken the hurricane?  Would it even strengthen it?  Those who believe the oil would weaken a hurricane make the argument that oil would actually hamper the evaporation of water which feeds the storm.  Those who think the oil would more likely strengthen the storm say the oil could actually have a heating effect on the water…and the warmer the water the more fuel for the storm.

Both are pretty good arguements.  But in my opinion, when it comes to spreading the oil spill it’s not going matter whether the storm weakens or strengthens.  It’s not going to matter whether we’re dealing with a Cat 1 or Cat 5.  Any tropical cyclone to pass over the spill zone would take this disaster into unknown territory.

Again let’s hope we never find out.  Let’s hope they fix the leak and let’s hope the tropics don’t heat up in the area until they do.

For much more on these two arguments…check out this article from the nytimes.com

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Environment, Pollution, Tropics