As a meteorologist one of my favorite weather phenomenon to forecast is hurricanes. This was probably sparked because I studied and interned in Florida during 2005- the most active Hurricane season on record. But if predictions play out for this year it is possible that we could top 2005.
There are numerous private and educational weather sites and programs that make hurricane predictions. They include Accuweather, WSI, Weather Services International just to name a few. Another main forecast department is Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology project. Dr. William Gray who heads up the research at CSU has been researching tropical weather for over 40 years. He works with another meteorologist Dr. Phil Klotzbach who will likely take over the project when Dr. Gray retires.
The original forecast from CSU came out on April 7th, but in articles being published today it is likely they will bump up their predictions to an even more active year. They say the weakening El Nino will lessen the wind shear which usually helps break apart hurricanes. With less wind shear hurricanes have a greater chance of strengthening. Their latest predictions will be published on June 2nd.
National Weather Service which is the goverment based forecast in the United States will release their forecast tomorrow, May 27th.
Weather Service International is forecasting 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes with 5 intense hurricanes which is a category 3 or higher.
Accuweather forecasting scenario is a little different. They forecast numbers and landfalls. They are forecasting 15 named storms, 7 landfalls of these storms, 5 hurricanes with 2 or 3 major landfalls.
Over the next couple days we will receive the numbers from NWS and the updated numbers from Dr. Gray’s forecast which I believe are the two forecasts that are usually relied on most . However, I do know accuweather’s hurricane forecasting has also received more attention in recent years.
If all the forecasters are right it looks like we could be in for a ride this summer and fall. The hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.
If I have to say anything, after the hurricane seasons we saw in 2004 and 2005 I think people are much more attentive and take better precautions when it comes to hurricanes.
One of the real concerns this year is going to be how the oil spill will be affected by the hurricane season. It could be devastating if we don’t get the spill contained before a hurricane makes its way into the Gulf. Here is an article related to that.
Here are a bunch of articles related to this subject:
Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly
This post was written by kconnolly on May 26, 2010