As a meteorologist one of my favorite weather phenomenon to forecast is hurricanes.  This was probably sparked because I studied and interned in Florida during 2005- the most active Hurricane season on record.  But if predictions play out for this year it is possible that we could top 2005.

There are numerous private and educational weather sites and programs that make hurricane predictions.  They include Accuweather, WSI, Weather Services International just to name a few.  Another main forecast department is Colorado State University’s tropical meteorology project.   Dr. William Gray who heads up the research at CSU has been researching tropical weather for over 40 years.  He works with another meteorologist Dr. Phil Klotzbach who will likely take over the project when Dr. Gray retires. 

The original forecast from CSU came out on April 7th, but in articles being published today it is likely they will bump up their predictions to an even more active year.   They say the weakening El Nino will lessen the wind shear which usually helps break apart hurricanes.   With less wind shear hurricanes have a greater chance of strengthening.  Their latest predictions will be published on June 2nd. 

National Weather Service which is the goverment based forecast in the United States will release their forecast tomorrow, May 27th.

Weather Service International is forecasting 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes with 5 intense hurricanes which is a category 3 or higher. 

Accuweather forecasting scenario is a little different.  They forecast numbers and landfalls.  They are forecasting 15 named storms, 7 landfalls of these storms, 5 hurricanes with 2 or 3 major landfalls.

Over the next couple days we will receive the numbers from NWS and the updated numbers from Dr. Gray’s forecast which I believe are the two forecasts that are usually relied on most . However, I do know accuweather’s hurricane forecasting has also received more attention in recent years. 

If all the forecasters are right it looks like we could be in for a ride this summer and fall.  The hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. 

If I have to say anything, after the hurricane seasons we saw in 2004 and 2005 I think people are much more attentive and take better precautions when it comes to hurricanes. 

One of the real concerns this year is going to be how the oil spill will be affected by the hurricane season.  It could be devastating if we don’t get the spill contained before a hurricane makes its way into the Gulf.  Here is an article related to that.

Here are a bunch of articles related to this subject:

More info on forecasts

Colorado Tropical Meteorology Project

Another Article

Accuweather’s hurricane forecast

National Hurricane Center ( releases forecast tomorrow)

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Natural Disasters, Records, Storms, Tropics, Uncategorized

Brrrrr it is cold out there this morning! Temps are dipping into the teens with wind chills feeling like the single digits! Talk about a wake up call after most of our lows for the last few weeks have stayed at least above 30.  We will have to deal with the cold until the afternoon where highs will rebound nicely back into the 50′s.  After today we should begin to see 60′s on the board which is still about 10 degrees above normal for the beginning of April. Over the weekend I think if we see any rain it will come tomorrow morning, early afternoon.  I am only keep in a slight chance and it shouldn’t be anything of worry.  A few more clouds will move in for the weekend compared to today but still will be overall nice.

On a different note, one thing people always ask is why did you go into meteorology.  One reason I always say is because it is such a changing and growing science.  The study of weather is barely 100 years old and until 50 years ago a thing known as a satellite didn’t even exist! If you check out this article you will realize how much we have really learned about the study of weather since the 60′s and 70′s.  I always try and explain that before we could look at weather from the view of space, weather was only known from the ground. 

Satellites changed weather is the sense of being able to see storms, and clouds on a massive scale level.  This is especially important when we are talking about hurricanes that are in the middle of the ocean and are not affecting any body of land.  Hurricanes to me have become a fascination for many and draw the attention of large audiences but until 40 years ago we couldn’t even count hurricanes especially if they stayed out in the water, that was because of the lack of satellites.  Until the 1970′s it was impossible to know if we caught every hurricane every year.  Satellites are a vital tool that we use and over the course of 50 years they have grown and improved allowing us to improve our forecasting.   

NOAA and NASA working together are continuing to improve the satellites and hope to launch the next generation of GOES satellites in 2015.  This new set of satellites will give us 4 times the clarity and 20 times the information!  For more information on the history and future check out the article!

Posted under forecast, Hurricanes, Science, Weather History

Ever thought you could create the conditions of a fire and burning embers or of a category 4 hurricane, well these people are trying!

Inside a huge warehouse they are going to reenact mother nature to try and improve building structures and codes.  The Institute for Business and Home Safety is working with Insurance companies to recreate conditions to help improve housing and to show why adding extras to your house could help save it from damage.  It is all happening outside of Richburg, South Carolina.  They are focusing on wind, fire, rain and hail- the elements that cause a billion dollars worth of damage every year.  It is the only place on the planet that can recreate weather events and test them on real scale houses in side a big box.  So how much does this cost? 30 million dollars.   

Going back to the storms in North Carolina that hit on Sunday I watched this video today and was in shock by the story.  This family was literally thrown into a pond in their trailer on Sunday night.  It shows careful you have to be when you are dealing with tornadoes or severe storms.  Thankfully the father and three kids made it out alive with help from neighbors.

Close to home it was very windy today, gusts being reported as high as 40 mph.  For some of the reports you can check out this list.

Have a great night, enjoy the nice warm up! But please NO BURNING!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Fire, Natural Disasters, Severe Weather

I hope every one’s week is starting off good.  My voice is slowly recovering but I still can’t talk fully at all.  I am hoping by tomorrow I am good enough to go on air.  What a bummer it is to not be able to talk. 

I was reading this article put out by the National Weather Service.  At first I didn’t get what they had changed but then I realized they are taking out storm surges related to certain categories.  As it mentions, different storms under the same winds will produce many varying types of surges and hence cause different flooding.  I was talking to my Dad once about this because although we are only a few blocks from the ocean it would take over a 15 feet surge because of how the elevation goes up just slightly.  Two big factors that play into how big the surge is near shore depth and topographical features.  The other main factors are size, intensity, pressure and motion of the storm. 

 I think this is a good move considering storms that are not major ( less than Cat 3) could produce a higher surge then those at a higher strength.  It is important to include the information in advisories and statements but to have standards is unrealistic anymore.  This is an example from the article:

“Hurricane Ike in 2008 was a very large storm that made landfall on the upper Texas coast as a Category 2 hurricane with a peak storm surge of 15 to 20 feet. In contrast, Hurricane Charley struck Southwest Florida in 2004 as a Category 4 hurricane, but produced a peak storm surge of just 6 to 7 feet.”

On a different subject I found this list of how long we have went without seeing a 40 degree day. I went back in our records for Wausau and I believe the last day was on Dec 2nd.  That would mean we have went 83 days not making it past 40.  Both La Crosse and Rochester saw there last 40 degree plus day as well on Dec 2nd.  I am going to email our weather office and see where Wausau stands in the longest stretch of sub 40 days.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Hurricanes, Storms, Uncategorized, Winter Weather

It seems that we have just had a continuation of fall but now it looks like winter is here and here for a while.  I have to admit, I haven’t even worn a winter jacket yet!  Today might have been the last day that we will see the 40′s for well a while.  I can’t believe the trend that we have seen- cool summer, warm Sept ( warmer than July!), cool October and now a warm November. 

I know Justin did a recap about November this morning but here are a few interesting notes:

Wausau was the 3rd warmest- average temp of 41.8 degrees, 7.8 degrees above average

Wausau was the 2nd least snowiest- only saw a Trace of snow, normal is just over 7 inches!

Rhinelander was the third warmest- average temp of 38.2 degrees, 8.4 degrees above average

For more info you can check out this link.

November 30th also means the close of the official hurricane season.  We saw the most inactive season since 1997 largely do to El Nino.  We saw nine named storms this season, with three hurricanes, two which were major which means a Category 3 or higher.  Only two storms, Claudette and Ida, brought tropical storm force winds to the continental 48 states.  It was the first year since 2006 that no hurricanes hit the mainland. For more info on the season check out the recap.

Have a great night and get ready to bundle up!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Records, Tropics, Weather History, Winter Weather

How can we complain? That was a comment said to me this weekend.  I would have to agree…as we were talking, we though of the fact that it is Sept 7th! It is a late Labor Day this year and we are still seeing temps in the mid 70′s.  Yes it isn’t the 80′s but relative to what it could be this year we are a-ok.  Enjoy it while it lasts because unfortunately it looks like it will be only around for a few more days.  By Wednesdaya cold front is going to push through the area.  I think that we will stay dry through most of the day Wednesday with the better chances coming late and into the overnight.  This will only be the beginningof the changes… By next weekend we could deal with an upper level low.  If you remember that usually means cool, cloudy and rainy conditions.  If this does shape up it will basically be the exact opposite of the weekend before. 

I asked this question this weekend and tried to find the answer this morning: How many man made lakes are there in Wisconsin?  I was up north and out on some lakes and to me it is interesting how many chains of lakes there area, I thought that some of them had been made but to my surprise most are natural I was told.  I wish I could find the answer but I can’t seem to get an exact number, I could  find that there are over 15000 lakes in the state.  I also found a directory of all the lakes!  

A notable hurricane occurred on Labor day back in 1935. It was the third most intense hurricane ever and killed over 400 people in the Florida Keys many of then American veterans working during World War 1.  It was also the first ever Cat 5 storm to hit the US.   For more info click here.

Have a great Labor Day holiday! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Hurricanes, Science

Did you hear about this one? Bill Gates (founder of Microsoft) has filed for 5 patents related to diminishing the strength of hurricanes. You might think it sounds crazy, but the physics and meteorology of the method is nothing out of the ordinary. The patents describe a method of using large ships to churn up the water, bringing cold water from the depths of the ocean to the surface. As you know, hurricanes need warm surface water to form and grow stronger. If cooler surface water could be generated in front (or in the path) of a hurricane, then it would lose strength. Now even though it sounds simple on paper, actually making it work would be an expensive challenge. This would have to be a large operation and the ships would have to be ready-to-go and in place, which would be difficult because hurricanes form in all corners of the tropical Atlantic. Hurricanes can also travel in somewhat erratic paths. I suppose if any single person in the world could take on such a project, it would be Bill Gates.

I hope he succeeds. I am all for modifying the weather. We humans have been bending mother nature to our will for thousands of years. No need to stop now. We no longer are at the mercy of rainfall – we irrigate. We are no longer at the mercy of the cold or heat – we have AC and furnaces. If we can somehow reduce a category 5 hurricane to a category 3 or 2 storm right before landfall, that will save a lot of lives and property. I wouldn’t want to completely destroy hurricanes because they do bring beneficial rain to coastal areas, but reducing the intensity could be a lifesaver.

On the subject of large-scale engineering, the UK Royal Society has come out in favor of geo-engineering in order to save the earth from AGW. I welcome this news with a word of caution: there are ways of warding off theoretical AGW that are good and ways that could have disastrous side-effects. Before I go any further, let us for now assume that not only is AGW occurring, but that it will be worse than the IPCC predictions (as many scientists claim), and there is enough CO2 in the air right now to create environmental Armageddon by 2100 (which a good deal of climatologists claim as well). These points are highly debatable, but for the purpose of discussing geo-engineering we will assume they are true.

Why geo-engineering? Because cap-n-trade and climate treaties WILL NOT WORK! (as intended). Not only is it in human nature to compete but we also desire progress. The only way cap-n-trade would work is if it completely crippled the economy of the world – which is possible. In this scenario, standards of living and perhaps even the population of the world would decline. What politicians envision is cap-n-trade (or climate treaties) where everything is rosy - where no one feels any “pain”. IT WILL NOT WORK. Another problem with climate treaties is that the world’s biggest polluters (India and China) are not going to join. So I ask you, what good is CO2 regulation if it has no effect on the biggest (and growing) emitters? What would be the purpose? Suicide of Western civilization?

The only way to have some degree of progress AND reduce the potential negative effects of AGW is to take carbon dioxide out of the air. This is not easy, but it is not impossible. I have previously reported some of the methods in the blog such as, turning agricultural waste into charcoal (easy), growing more vegetation (easy), using artificial trees to take CO2 out of the air (difficult), and fertilizing the oceans (potential dangerous). The solar shade idea has too many downsides for me to seriously consider. If we take the CO2 out of the air in large enough quantities and at a reasonable price, then we can still have progress, heck we could still burn fossil fuels, although I would prefer solar or fusion.

One last grand-scale engineering project in the news today, something that I have reported on previously, space-solar power. Mitsubishi heavy industries has dedicated 21 billion dollars to the effort of creating a 1 gigawatt space-solar power station. Sadly, they estimate it will take 30 years to build. I like the idea, but I am quite cautious at this point. I still haven’t seen any data about how easy it would be to send the energy down to earth via microwave radiation. There was on small test out in the Hawaiian Islands last year that was reported “successful”, but no in-depth details were provided. I know that microwaves can be attenuated quite a bit in the atmosphere. We use microwaves in weather radars to detect precipitation, precisely because water droplets (and snowflakes) interact strongly with microwaves. If they can get around the attenuation problem, they will then have to deal with beam spread. Unless they have some sort-of lasing mechanism, they will lose a large percentage of the power. And what would happen to that power? It would dissipate in the atmosphere or on the surface of the earth. I am sure environmentalists would have a field day complaining about Mitsubishi microwaving the ocean! I still think surface-solar is the best future option, and if we can ever figure out how to contain a fusion reaction – well then – the world could have a big party.

Have a fine Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Environment, Hurricanes

I wanted to direct you to a link on our website that has your very own football forecast for every stadium! It gives you hourly data for your hometown team!

Check it out at http://www.waow.com/Global/category.asp?C=173551&nav=menu1360_4_6

Currently a weak tropical storm Danny formed today in the Atlantic with winds of 45 mph.  Looking at the image above you can tell it is a disorganized low pressure.  It is forecasted to strengthen but the intensity would only be a minor hurricane if it can get to hurricane strength.  One model does make it eventually a Cat 1 and hitting the eastern area of Massachusetts.  Another thing to watch is most models make it extratropical by late in the the weekend.  It ironically will have a very similar pattern to Bill.  This will again cause heavy rainfall leading to flooding, strong winds and rip currents along the eastern seaboard.

I can’t believe it but four years ago we were dealing with Hurricane Katrina.  It was during this time that it was out to see and would form into a Cat 5 storm.  Thankfully it did not hit as a 5 but like everyone knows was one of the storms of the century.  Take a look at the path and facts about the storm below. 

Posted under Hurricanes

We have been discussing various weather records lately and here is another one that I was not aware of. Well, I had an inkling there might be some sort-of record in the making but I was unsure. The Green Bay National Weather Service forecast area went 101 days this warm season without a single verified severe weather event. A severe thunderstorm event is winds of 58 mph or greater, hail 1 inch in diameter or greater, or a tornado. 101 days without any severe weather during the middle of Summer in Northcentral Wisconsin is amazing. So what event broke the string of severe-less days? It was the microburst in Rib Mountain – just yesterday. Now there could have been a 58 mph gust of wind somewhere in the area during the last couple months, or one large hail stone that fell in a lonely field, but nothing that was verified until yesterday. Displayed are a couple pictures of the damage from Rib Mountain. It was a very small area that was affected, only a small area of one block, but it was rather severe. The high wind crossed the lake a knocked down a few trees by Wausau Country Club as well.

Speaking of the lack of severe weather, the Atlantic hurricane season has been very quiet as well. I wonder what the record for fewest hurricanes is? There have been none so far this year and the ocean is very quiet yet today as we are getting into more of the active season. The quiet waters might have been part of the reason that today Colorado State researchers have cut their hurricane forecast a little.

Speaking of hurricanes, there was once speculation that the U.S. government, or the Russians, or some secret agency, or the Illuminati, or aliens, someone was altering the weather and maybe even producing or altering the paths of hurricanes, including hurricane Katrina. You can find a lot of interesting reading on the multitude of conspiracy websites out there. Many of the wild theories begin with a grain of truth, after all weather modification has been attempted and even shown some successes over the course of the last few decades. I reported about one successful multi-year test (in Tasmania) here in the blog earlier this year. I am unaware of any successful or even attempted efforts of modifying hurricanes – except for cloud seeding. That hasn’t stopped a lot of speculation about the HAARP facility in Alaska. It is a radio and ionospheric research station funded in-part by the military. It has garnered it’s share of conspiracy theories (similar to ELF here in Wisconsin). A  reporter was recently allowed into the site to take a look around. Here is a good article about the history and uses of HAARP, along with a photo album. Some really cool shots in there.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Hurricanes, Records, Science, Severe Weather, Storms

At least we are seeing the 70′s across the area! Today was finally a bit warmer and nicer then the past couple days and it will only get warmer tomorrow!  The high pressure will be short lived as an active pattern begins on Tuesday.  We will see a series of fronts and disturbances move on through from Tuesday through the weekend.  Hopefully from all the chances we can get some nice accumulations!  Temperatures will be below normal mainly in the upper 70′s to near 80.

In other news…. There has been talk about “stopping” hurricanes.  Bill Gates the Microsoft founder is working with a team to try and kill hurricanes before they can develop.  “The project, for which the inventors have submitted a patent application, involves placing vessels in the path of the storm and having them pull cooler water from beneath the ocean’s surface, which theoretically would rob the hurricane of its strength.”

Of course this is a very controversial subject.  You can read more about the project here  and I think this is a really good article about why trying to stop mother nature might not be possible! Although water temperatures do play a role in hurricanes the exact science on why one strengthens or doesn’t strengthens is still being debated.  There are also many other factors that play into why a hurricane strengthens, winds at surface and above, stability around the area, moist or dry etc…. 

On the second link above there is also another very good article about a “vortcane”.  Which is described in the article as a very small hurricane.  I think the article is interesting because he talked about Hurricane Charley, one of the ones that hit 20 miles from my home.  That hurricane he says would be in his mind classified as a vortcane.  The impact was very intense but isolated to a small area.  These are some of the characteristics he states:

Vortcanes have some unique aspects when it comes to land impacts; I list some below:

1) The damaging wind area is usually very narrow, less than 30 miles in width

2) Waves rarely exceed 20 feet, compare to the average size hurricane that has peak waves of 25-40 feet and occasionally as high as 80 feet.

3) The vortcane is a surge under-achiever typically causing surge about half the height of the average hurricane of same intensity

4) The vortcane can intensify very quickly

5) The vortcane can weaken very quickly

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Science, Storms, Tropics, Uncategorized