Something happened this morning that hasn’t happened all year long (and it is hard to remember the last time it happened) – we set some new record low temps.

Here are the ones we know for sure:

Merrill 27

Rhinelander 28

Stevens Point 28

Antigo 29

Wausau is a bit more of a question mark at this point. It is likely that the temperature dropped to 31 or 30 sometime shortly after midnight. The problem is that the ASOS weather station at the airport was having trouble communicating. The temperature was most likely logged internally and the National Weather Service will download that information at a later time – hopefully today! The old record in Wausau was 31 set back in 1902. So if we tied or broke that record it would be breaking a record that has held for 110 years! The only other record that might fall yet during this cool spell is the snowfall record on Saturday. I know what you are thinking – impossible. The snowfall record in Wausau on the 22nd is a trace. Right now it looks like there will be some light showers in the area on Saturday and temps will be cool. With temps in the upper 30s to low 40s in the morning and then again dropping to that level in the evening, there is at least a slight chance of some sleet or a couple flakes of snow to mix in with any raindrops – and that is all it takes for a “trace” of snow. There was some sleet and snow reported in Vilas county yesterday morning, so it is not that far out of the realm of possibility.

Of course, now that we have had our first official widespread frost of the season, we can now have an official Indian Summer. Just as a reminder, go back and check our official criteria for Indian Summer.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Freeze

The cold blast of air continues to be the main theme in the weather for today and the rest of the week. It will be cold enough tonight that some patchy frost might form, but it is not a guarantee. The threat is great enough that the National Weather Service has issued a FROST ADVISORY for effective tonight into Thursday morning for Ashland, Price, Taylor, Clark, Jackson, Juneau, Adams, Wood, Portage, Waushara, Marathon and Lincoln counties.

The northeastern part of the area might not have any frost because there will be some lake effect cloudiness and some wind continuing out of the northwest. Some of the clouds might even hang around the Wausau area later tonight and thus I am forecasting a low of 34 in town. Even though I do not expect an official frost in the city, I am not going to leave any vulnerable plants outside. If we don’t have an official frost in Wausau tonight, it will likely happen Thursday night into Friday morning. We should have clear skies and light winds on Thursday night. Low in the northwoods will likely drop into the 20s. In Wausau I am forecasting 31. It will likely be the effective end of the growing season and it would break a record in Wausau. The record low on Friday is 32, set back in 1916. It is interesting to note that there was quite a wicked cold spell back in 1916 (besides just the record low on the 16th of September). In September of 1916 there was a record cold high temperature of 44 on the 15th, a record cold high temperature of 38 on the 16th (Yikes!), a record low of 32 on the 16th, a record low of 28 on the 17th, and a record low of 28 on the 18th. So if you don’t like the weather today, just be glad that you did not have to suffer through 1916. On the flip side, it was quite hot during this time of year in 1939. During September of 1939 we had record high temps in the 90s for 4 days in a row! It was 92 on the 13th, 94 on the 14th, 93 on the 15th, and 92 on the 16th

If we do get a frost in Wausau on Friday morning, it would be about 2 weeks earlier than normal. Check out this graphic to see when the first frost usually happens. For most of our area, it usually occurs between the 20th and the 26th of September. Wausau used to fall closer to this date range, but in the last couple of decades the city has grown enough to impact the date of the first frost. The Urban heat island effect is likely what makes Wausau’s first frost now occur around October 1st.

If we do have a frost on Friday then we will also have a longer time to experience official “Indian Summer”. The first frost is of course one criteria in the definition of Indian Summer. For the full definition of Indian Summer we use here at StormTrak 9, check this past blog post.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Fall, Freeze, Records, Weather History

As Justin posted we now have partnered with NRG radio! This means just more chances to get the forecast from the StormTrak 9 weather team.  Let us know what you think! I know on our end we are very excited about this new endeavor.

I also wanted to direct you to my next have you ever wondered piece… Why is Static Electricity bad in the Winter? … with the cold temperatures we have seen in the overnight I know it has been bad! When someone asked that question My hair is always the first way I can tell it is staticy.   So if you want to know the answer check it out!

As we keep saying it looks like an Indian Summer is upon us, I can’t believe that it will be in the 70′s this week! What gorgeous weather we will have for mid October.  Make sure you see the Fall colors as they are almost done!

Hope you have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Fall, Fall Color, new media, Science, Weather NEws

Big news for everyone out there in Northcentral Wisconsin. StorrmTrak9 forecasts are now on a few radio stations in the area. Here is the list:

Big Cheese 107.9 http://www.bigcheese1079.net/ 

Central Wisconsin’s Listen at Work Station, Mix 96.7 http://967wljy.com/

 Classic Rock 103.3 WGLX http://www.wglx.com/ 

Today’s Best Country, Y 106.5 http://www.wyte.com/

You will hear StormTrak9 forecasts throughout the day and night on all four stations and we will have some interactive chats with the radio DJs in the morning. For starters, you can hear me on Big Cheese 1079 every morning Monday through Friday at 6:13am and 7:50 am with Trav & Christy. Tune in during your drive to work in the morning because it is “time to go for the gusto, drive fast, and eat cheese!”

As far as the weather goes, I can’t say enough good words about the forecast for this week and most of the weekend. It looks like we could reach Indian Summer conditions by Friday and Saturday with high temps around 70. The next chance of rain will not occur until late Sunday at the earliest. The Wisconsin Fall colors are happening earlier this year and are at their peak in most of the area right now! The colors are also more vibrant this year. My theory is that the above normal rainfall led to healthier trees this year and healthy trees bring good color. The last few year of Fall color have not been as vibrant most likely be cause of the persistent drought conditions.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Fall Color, forecast

Judging by the weather charts it looks quite likely that we will have our first official frost (32 or lower) in Wausau coming this Sunday morning. If the temps drop to 32 in town then it will likely be a killing frost out in the countryside and in the northwoods. This is important for 2 reasons. First, farmers and gardeners will need to wrap things up for the season or take necessary precautions. Secondly, and very important, is marking the point at which we can start talking about Indian Summer. Even though we have experienced some light scattered frost over the last week or two, I don’t think is was widespread or hard enough to be THE first frost for the area. For a more in depth discussion about the sometimes nebulous definition of Indian Summer here in Northcentral Wisconsin check out this past blog entry. If we do have a hard frost on Sunday morning, we could have our first official Indian Summer day by next Tuesday. Right now I am forecasting high temps in the upper 60s for next Tuesday. If we would happen to see the mercury reach the low 70s then it could be an official Indian Summer day (“nice” with high temps at least 10 degrees above normal).

Other than the potential for Indian Summer weather early next week the temperatures will be at or below normal, as has been the case through most of this month of September. I wonder if we are feeling the effects of La Nina already. The last couple of times there was a La Nina temperature pattern in the Pacific ocean, we did experience below normal temperatures. Perhaps La Nina is the reason why Arctic sea ice did not shrink to a record low areal extent this year. The lowest amount of sea ice usually occurs in early September. Since I did not see an explosion of media hysteria about sea ice earlier this month I just assumed there was not a new record. Just checked, and sea ice was lower than last year but greater than 2007 and 2008. Of course, most of the blame for the current lower amounts of sea ice have been placed upon anthropogenic global warming (AGW), however, the arctic has been ice free at different periods in the past. Plus, natural events/changes do have noticeable significant effects on the climate. If AGW is substantial then we might expect arctic sea-ice to remain low or get lower over the next few years, but sun cycles, volcanoes, and ocean cycles such as La Nina could temper things a bit or cause sea ice to expand.

As a side note, it is nice to see more climate reporting focusing on all aspects of the climate rather than only AGW. For years (I would say decades), anytime anyone mentioned solar cycles, cosmic rays, volcanoes, or a plethora of other natural climate forcing mechanisms (well known or theoretical), they would be met with derision  – which is probably an understatement. It seems this unprofessional and many times vulgar attitude stemmed from the idea that “big oil” had to be confronted and that anyone who questioned AGW theory (even with solid data to back it up) was a “tool of big oil” or a “flat-earther”. No dissent was allowed. Well-meaning skeptics were lumped in with non-scientists and conspiracy theorists and were often threatened. Predictably, this led to an insular culture within the cadre of top climate scientists, some unethical behavior (see Climategate), and clearly erroneous predictions (last IPCC assessment). Now it seems, the reporting about our climate future is getting a little more rational and open and this is a good thing. Recent articles have mentioned the limits of predictability (of large climate swings), ice caps are not melting as fast as thought, and – gasp – the effects of the sun on climate. Even as climate reporting gets more rational (and most likely more accurate), don’t think that AGW is not at least a small factor in the earth’s climate future. One look at how humans have changed the surface of the earth should give you an idea of how much we affect things around this planet.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change

I hope everyone enjoyed the nice Indian Summer weather over the weekend. Saturday and Sunday were nearly perfect Indian Summer weather and almost fit our somewhat strict definition. After the first frost? Yes. 10 degrees or more above normal? Yes. Partly or mostly sunny with no other inclimate weather? Yes. So where does the “nearly perfect” come in to play? It has to do with our method of declaring an end of the Indian Summer time period. After all, it doesn’t make much sense to declare an ”Indian Summer” day on December 28th or January 15th. By that time, the season has definitely changed. So the absolute endpoint of the “Indian Summer” season is December 1st – the beginning meteorological/climatological winter. However, we have to allow for an earlier end in case we have a big snowstorm along with colder temps. It would be odd to call a day “Indian Summer” if there was 6 inches of snow on the ground, even if the temperature did rise 10 degrees above normal. Our current definition brings the Indian Summer period to an end once we have a snowfall of over an inch, and this already occurred way back on October 12th. So we had no true Indian Summer days this year in Wausau- according to the strict definition we employ, but by many standards we did have a couple days over the weekend and a handful more are to come. From Monday through Thursday of this week we should have partly or mostly sunny skies and high temps in the 50s. The next chance of rain will be late Friday.

It was warm enough on Saturday to possibly break a record high temp in Wausau. According to the records i have in the office the old record was 63. We hit a high of 66 on Saturday. I am still checking with the National Weather Service in order to confirm the record. The record high was tied in Rhinelander on Saturday.

Alternative Energy:

Over the course of the last few years I have highlighted a couple disaster scenarios on a fairly regualrbasis – AGW and Peak Oil. I happen to think bothare overstated and I have discussed the many reasons why. We also had a little fun asking both “apocalypse camps” about the other’s contradictory scenarios. One of the main reasons I hedge against the disaster predictions of AGW and Peak Oil is technological progress. Not only is progress most likely occurring at an exponential rate, the process of observing and reacting to problems is dynamic. Human society and all of its non-physical structures (laws and organizations) is constantly reacting to small changes and threats that tend to reduce the chance of a bigger disaster farther into the future. I am amazed at how many people predict that humans will party until the last drop of oil is used or burn coal until the sky is overwhelmed with carbon dioxide and the oceans evaporate. I know it might seem that way upon a cursory evaluation but it is certainly not. A multitude of actions and inventions are occurring everyday that demonstrate we are not hurtling blissfully into suicidal oblivion. (Aside: the greatest threats are the events we have not thought of yet, things that will sneak up on society and are extremely difficult to plan for).

As such, I enjoy highlighting some of the newest technological advancements, and lately there have been some good ones.

How about adding optical fibers to increase the efficiency of dye-sensitized solar cells? Georgia Tech researchers have done just that. Their design could increase the efficiency by 6 times as compared to regular zinc oxide solar cells. They created the special cells by wrapping dye-sensitized material around an optical fiber. The only drawback is that the process is more expensive. They will need to discover cheaper methods and materials in order for this to ever go mainstream.

How about making the anode of a lithium-ion battery out of silicon nanowires? That is what Amprius is doing. The product they are testing right now can increase the capacity of a typical lithium-ion battery by 40%. So instead of the Tesla roadster traveling 200 miles on a charge, it could do over 300 miles, which is pretty amazing. Same size battery – 40% more charge. This would be good news for laptop and cell phone battery life as well. No word on cost, but I hope to see Amprius technology in my gadgets and cars relatively soon.

How about a clean source of energy besides nuclear, wind, and solar? Scientist Jan Post has studied the feasibility of “blue energy” – a source of energy derived from the salinity difference between fresh and salt water. “Blue energy” power plants would sit at the mouths of major rivers. Exploitation of the charge difference between salt water and fresh water has been contemplated for many decades but has never undergone large scale tests. The major problem I can see is bio-fouling. This is where living matter “fouls” or disrupts the functioning of the power plant. In this case it would most likely be bacteria and algae that could plug up to membranes used in the power generation process.

Lastly an intriguing time-wasting videofor the end of the blog. The convective swirls shown toward the end of the video are just plain weird. It is amazing that small beads confined to a cramped space and rotated along one axes forms vortices parallel to the axis. Scale this into 3 dimensions and you get an appreciation for how complex the atmosphere is.

Have a fine Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Peak Oil, Records

Well well, the record for the coldest October takes another turn. After talking to the National Weather Service in Green Bay – which has more extensive records going back to the late 1800s – it doesn’t look like there is much chance of breaking the record this year. This year might make the top 5 coldest but no where near the top spot. The record coldest October in Wausau turns out to be 1917 when the mean temperature was only 36.3! This year we are at about 41, and it looks like temps for the next 10 days will only be about 5 degrees below normal, not enough to get us closer to the record.

A note about yesterday: It was the warmest day of October thus far and will probably end up being the warmest day of the month with a high of 64, however, it was not warm enough to fit our criteria for “Indian Summer”. Our definition is 10 degrees or more above normal. Yesterday was only about 7 degrees above normal.

When contemplating longer term above or below normal temperatures we usually turn to the CPC computer model update this time of month.

CPC November Trend

First is an image of the November forecast. Contrary to our current trend of near record cold, the computer models are forecasting an equal chance of above normal or below normal temps for November. Looking at the trend in the jet stream for the next week or so, I would expect at least the beginning of November to be cooler than normal. The mid to late November trend? I couldn’t say for sure.

CPC Dec-Jan-Feb Trend

Looking further into the future, the second image is for the December-January-February period shows a greater chance of above normal temps than below normal temps. This has changed a little from the last 2 monthly updates. Previously, the chance of above normal temps was a bit higher, now the models have backed off. Is it because El Nino has not strengthened yet? Maybe. If El Nino weakens, then it is less likely that we will have a mild winter with little snowfall.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Records

If you are getting tired of cloudy skies and cool temps, I have some good news and bad news. The bad news is that the weather looks cloudy from today through Friday, temps will be cool, and there will be some periodic light rain and snow showers. The good news is that we should have more sunshine and a bit warmer temps from Saturday through Monday. High temps should hit the 50s on Sunday and Monday. After that, maybe more bad news. I really can’t discern any trend for significant and lengthy Indian Summer-like weather for next week or later this month. So you will want to make the most of the nice weather this weekend and Monday.

Alternative Energy News:

Just to follow up on some of the electric vehicle news I touched upon yesterday. I like to follow the news about the EVs because I would like to purchase one in the near future. The problem is the price. The Aptera is the cheapest mass production highway-ready EV coming on to the market soon. The price tag is projected to be between $27,000 and $29,000 – which happens to be well out of my price range. One company I have not mentioned much is CODA. They are planning to sell a EV sedan that is for the mainstream/average car-buyer. It looks nice. However, the cost is still projected to be $45,000. Yikes! Maybe because they are planning on manufacturing their own batteries, they might be able to bring the cost down in the future, but I wouldn’t count on it. What about the Chevy Volt? It is getting closer to production and the price is still expected to tip the scales at $45,000. A few people I know have eyed the Think City car as a potential game-changer, however, some bloggers expect this tiny EV to come in at $50,000. Even a modified federal tax credit for EVs will not help the market much. I just don’t see many people with enough cash to buy many $40,000 and $50,000 cars.

So, it looks like I might have to go with a neighborhood EV – basically a modified golf cart – which is fine but obviously not good for the highway. In fact, I think they are illegal on the highway. Or I will just have to wait a while and go with fuel-sipping small gas cars like what I currently own.

As far as follow-ups go, what about Eestor? Remember, this is the company that has been promising an ultra-capacitor-like energy storage unit that will be the most revolutionary energy storage technology in decades. Here is a recent blog post about the state of the companyand the product. Some red flags about Eestor are the many delayed roll-out dates, secretive operations, and no data. Plus, they have only signed an agreement with Zenn motors. If Eestor’s technology was more of a certainty and was actually as promising as media reports are saying, then you would think GM, Tesla, Fiskar, and others would be beating down their door to sign deals. They are not.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy

It is that time of year to dispel myths, chase away indecision, and firm up the terminology. It is time to define “Indian Summer”. Seasoned readers have been through this before. Please have patience for the first-timers.

It all started with anebulous definition of Indian Summer which caused many disagreements when I first started forecasting the weather. It turns out that there was no clearly defined criteria for Indian Summer, except that it had to occur after the first frost (which happened in our area last week). A consortium of radio Djs and myself decided that an Indian Summer day must have a high temperature 10 degrees or warmer than normal. The day would also have to be substantially “nice”. Any type of inclement weather would relegate the day to the category of “Indian Summer-like weather”. Too windy, too bad, it is not Indian Summer weather. Cloudy for most of the day, too bad, not Indian Summer weather. Rain most of the day, too bad, not Indian summer weather. So don’t get caught in the trap of declaring a day “Indian Summer” without some thought.

Some people have also wondered when the period for Indian Summer ends? It ends November 30th or the date of the first measurable snowfall. November 30th is the climatological end of Fall. We can’t be having Indian Summer during winter now can we? Also, the first measurable snow is a sign of the change in seasons.

Can we go an entire Fall season without true Indian Summer? Sure. It might happen this year. Can we have multiple episodes of Indian Summer weather? Yes we can. It has happened a couple times this decade.

So is there any true Indian Summer weather on the way anytime soon? Not a chance. The next 7 to 10 days look well below normal. We will have to wait until later in October or November.

Space News:

Can you believe it has been 5 years since the X-prize was won? Here is a very positive article commemorating the event. I am not quite as positive, but I am not negative either. Positive aspects: private space companies continue to move slowly forward  with their plans for sub-orbital flight and space tourism. Negative aspects: private space companies continue to move sloooowly forward  with their plans for sub-orbital flight and space tourism. I realize that the infrastructure needed for space flight is rather substantial. Pouring cement for launch pads, building space ships, and testing rockets is heavy industry-type work. It is a lot different than most of the “small” technology we are used to dealing with such as cell phones, computers, and software. Still, 5 years is a long time and there doesn’t seem to be any acceleration in timelines. I guess I should be happy that most of the private operations survived the economic downturn.

The same cannot be said for NASA. Their budget gets cut every year and they are having a tough time with human exploration plans. Here is an interview with a former NASA astronaut and founder of Ad Astra Rocket Technology. He says NASA should focus on the space frontier – going farther out with robotic exploration – while private space companies focus on low earth orbit and potential moon and asteroid bases. I agree. The sooner private companies figure out a way to make money in space the sooner all of us will have the opportunity to become space explorers and tourists ourselves.

Not only are private companies pushing the boundaries of space flight, private individuals are taking awesome pictures of the night sky. Take a look at these amatuer photos. It just goes to show that technology is helping common people accomplish what was once the province of professionals.

Speaking of space photos; Messenger has returned some new close-up photos of Mercury, including the mysterious bright spot.

I have covered potential exploration to Europa over the last couple of years. It is a difficult mission because any probe that lands on the surface will have to melt or drill through a thick sheet of ice. Mission planners have recently scoped out some potential landing sites.

Lastly, would you believe shaded areas of the Moon are the coldest places in the solar system? That is according to data returned by LCROSS. Actually, it might not be the coldest place in the solar system, just that it is the coldest that has yet been measured.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Space