During the record tornado outbreak of 2011 many people had speculated that La Nina (part of the Pacific ocean ENSO cycle I blog about quite often), was somehow responsible. A recent study of past deadly tornado years has found that most of them are linked with a condition called trans-Nino. Trans-Nino time period when La Nina is fading, when the central Pacific ocean temps are heading toward a more neutral phase. This was happening during the Spring of 2011 when we had a couple of tornado outbreaks. One of which struck the city of Merrill.

I should caution though, that the sample size is not that high so it weakens the statistical correlation. Also, only 7 out of the 10 worst tornado years were linked with trans-Nino. So there were some years with a high number of deadly tornadoes when some other pattern was driving things. Strong tornadoes can happen in all seasons here in the U.S. You always have to be on guard. With this new study, perhaps we can forecast a little more in advance. Not pinpointing when and where there will be tornadoes, but highlighting the fact that certain years might have a higher number of bad tornadoes.

_______________________________

Update:  Here is a place you can see some additional video from the record-breaking sky dive from the edge of space that took place over the weekend.

In other space news, another trail-blazing private citizen is pony-ing up at least $35 million dollars to take a 10 day trip to the space station. It is renowned singer and recording artist Sarah Brightman. I used to have one of her CDs so it is neat to see she is a space enthusiast.

A lot of people might frown upon the thought of space flight only being for “the rich” or that it is a waste of money. I don’t. These people are taking risks, just like real astronauts. For those of us hoping that at some point in the future we might travel to space, these people (who earned every penny of their fortune) are keeping private space companies afloat in a time when governments are generally scaling back on human space flight. Also, one of the greatest risks humans face is that we are stuck on this planet. To ensure a greater chance of surviving a great catastrophe, it would be best if we had some settlements off-world as well. Dennis Tito, Anousheh Ansari, and now Sarah Brightman are playing a key niche role for our future safety and security.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, Space

Seeing that Tony mentioned some of the effects of El Nino in yesterday’s blog, I figured I should mention that the latest El Nino/La Nina (ENSO) diagnostic discussion was released last week. Not to much has changed in the outlook. The computer models are still indicating a weak to moderate El Nino for this Fall and early Winter. Only one model (the JMA) is forecasting a strong El Nino. A weak El Nino has almost formed already, but many of the atmospheric conditions that go along with El Nino have not developed as of yet. If an El Nino forms, what we could most likely expect for the late Fall and early Winter is warmer than normal temperatures. An El Nino could be bad news for the Midwest as it typically means lower than normal precipitation during the Winter. Check out the computer model forecasts here. Not only could the weather be warmer and drier than normal across the Midwest and much of the U.S. this Winter (because of El Nino), it might be that way across the globe as well. The warmest year on record (according to most statistics anyway) was 1998 when we had a strong El Nino. La Nina has been proven to do the opposite as well – cool the globe.

_____________________________

And now a follow up to the electric car and battery developments of the past few years. A123 systems seemed like a rising star at one point and I blogged about the battery maker a few years ago. In the intervening years, it started to provide batteries for the Fisker brand of electric sports cars (the Fisker Karma) and it was supposed to provide batteries for the Volt, according to some news outlets. That probably is not going to happen. As I reported earlier this year A123 was having financial trouble. They were heading toward bankruptcy. It seems they are still in bad shape, as the only hope to keep them alive is a possible bailout from a Chinese company. It is kind-of strange, or ironic, or I am not really sure of the term, that A123 was touted and supported by the U.S. government and now it might come under the ownership of a Chinese company.

So what is GM to do? It looks like they are investing hope in a new battery maker – Envia. They are one of the financial backers of the battery company and held a press release about the new better lithium battery just recently. Kind-of old news for everyone who reads the blog. I mentioned Envia’s breakthrough already back in April. Of course, Envia’s product is not yet out of the lab, so GM could be in a bind for a year or two.

Fisker Karma Burning

What about Fisker? They have on of the hottest hybrids on the market in the Karma. They might also have to shop around for a new battery supplier, or they might have trouble staying solvent. Unfortunately, another one of their sports cars went up in flames recently. I feel bad for the engineers who designed such a great car. Safety trouble could be a death knell for the already struggling car company.

_________________________________

In another follow up, it now appears the UN is also calling for a halt to grain ethanol production in the U.S. As I have written lately, I have my doubts as to the benefits of grain ethanol and the ethanol mandate for gasoline. This issue has been especially crystallized this year with the drought. Burning food while crops burn in the field, doesn’t make too much sense. With advanced and more efficient methods of gasoline production possibly coming online in the near future, ethanol might become and ever expensive option.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, ENSO Update, Technology

The heat wave ended with a bang last Friday night as a supercell thunderstorm rumbled across Oneida county. It had all the ingredients and elements necessary to form a tornado and many people saw the low swirling and rotating clouds, but we lucked out. A tornado did not form. It was a close call also because it traveled right over the city of Rhinelander. The good news is that there was more rain in the Northwoods. The bad news is that rain missed the southern part of the area.

Thankfully, the heat has abated, but not before we had a few records. Last week was the first time in a while that we had several locations hit 100 degrees (mainly south of Marathon county). Here in Wausauwe broke a record high on the fourth when the temperature hit 96.

Rhinelander Supercell Thunderstorm in the Distance, Picture by Debi Oswald

96 was good enough to tie a record on the 5th, but did not quite break a record on the 6th. Still, three days in a row with a high of 96 is remarkable. We also had 5 days in a row when the temperature hit 90, which means…..Tony has won our office forecasting contest, along with Trav of the Big Cheese Morning Show on 107.9. They both predicted 5 days of 90 degree weather during the month of July. We might have more before the month is out but our rules are whoever is closest wins, and since nobody went over 5, they are the winners.

We will have more warm weather for the rest of this year? I addressed this question in an earlier blog entry. People were wondering if a warm March would lead to a hot Summer. So far this has been the case. What about the Fall and early Winter? For that we can turn to the latest ENSO discussion. This is the diagnostic discussion that collates all of the El Nino and La Nina data and gives general guidance for what trends we can expect as we head into the next few months.

Pacific Ocean Upper Heat Content

The latest set of data indicates an increased chance of at least a weak El Nino forming over the next couple of months and persisting into early Winter. An El Nino has not formed yet but if you click on the figures in the discussion you will notice a lot of the graphs turning orange (which indicates warmer temperatures). The computer models are still a little iffy on when or how strong of an El Nino there might be, but the chances are getting better it will form.

If El Nino would happen to form, it is almost a gaurantee that our warmer than normal temps will continue into the first part of winter (based on the last few El Ninos during the last couple of decades). Warmer than normal temps typically mean not as good of snow conditions as well, however, it only takes one or two big snowstorms to make a “good” Winter. It can’t be as bad as last Winter when we had the snowmobile trails open – barely - for a few days in central Wisconsin and some didn’t open at all. I suppose it could be worse, if the lakes didn’t freeze over. I don’t even want to think about the possibility.

Have a swell Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, Heat, Records

Sea Surface Temps in May

For those of you that always keep an eye on the long term forecast, one of the biggest clues to where things are headed is the state of the ENSO (El Nino & La Nina) in the central/tropical Pacific. The Climate Prediction Center monitors the trend and issues an in-depth monthly discussion on what is happening.

The latest ENSO discussion has been issued and it looks like there is a chance that a weak El Nino could develop later this year. The CPC is saying it is equally likely that El Nino could form or that the ocean surface temps remain neutral. Why is this important? If an El Nino forms, we would most likely have a warmer than normal Winter. Almost every Winter for the last couple of decades with an El Nino pattern in the Pacific has led to warmer than normal temperatures and less snow than normal. The stronger the El Nino is, the warmer the Winter has been - typically.

Computer Model Forecast

You can view the computer model output here. Of course, the models were run in May and May is a long time from December, so you have to be a bit cautious with the forecast this early in the year. Also, unfortunately, the average computer forecast has not improved much over the last decade. What are called the “dynamical” forecasts have improved slightly, but there has not been any improvement elsewhere since the decade of the 1990s (according to a recent paper in the bulletin of the American Meteorological society).

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update

Before getting into any other subjects, I should bring everyone up to date on the latest El Nino/La Nina trend, which is one of the  more important ocean/atmosphere circulations we monitor. The latest ENSO diagnostic discussion indicates that the La Nina from this past Winter has ended. The central Pacific ocean surface temperatures are now basically neutral and are expected to stay that way for the next couple of months. By this Fall the computer model forecasts indicate a trend toward a weak El Nino. This is important. Almost every time we have an El Nino in the tropical Pacific we have warmer than normal Winter conditions here in Wisconsin and lower than normal snowfall.

CPC Model Projection

The stronger the El Nino, the warmer our Winter could be. Right now it looks like a weak El Nino will form at best, but it is early in the year, so there could be some notable changes yet before Fall arrives.

_________________________________

And now a little follow-up on a subject that was much more prevalent last year but many people seem to have forgot about. As has been mentioned in many outlets outside of the mainstream media, the Fukushima nuclear disaster is not over and it is worse than thought. Spent fuel pools (as well as other parts of the reactor) are a grave danger to the U.S. according to at least one Senator who visited the site.

_________________________________________

In another follow-up, I sometimes bring a bevy of news and research that shows things are not as bad as originally portrayed, either for the present or into the future. Last year I blogged about how the trash in the Pacific is not as bad as originally reported. Now this year we have a finding that declares the trash in the ocean could be significant, just not in the way we might have thought in the past. A oceanographer researching in the Pacific found a lot of small particles of plastic a bit below the surface. These types of particles would normally float on the surface and be visible but wave and wind action drives them a few feet below the surface. Past surveys of ocean garbage generally only skimmed the surface water. Smaller particles could more easily find their way into the food chain and cause some disruptions. What is not know is whether these particles are all over the ocean. Maybe they are only in certain areas near manufacturing centers or shipping lanes, such as southeast Asia.

Also, in the not-as-bad-as-originally-proclaimed theme, during the past couple decades the AGW discussion has been peppered with proclamations about “increased storminess”, “more hurricanes”, “more floods”, even more tornadoes. In the case of tornadoes, every time there is a big outbreak, someone usually speculates as to whether the seemingly increasing number of tornadoes is due to AGW. In another, maybe it is not as bad as originally portrayed, the case for tornadoes is not clear cut. There are many factors in the atmosphere that have to be “just right” and these factors might not all come together to produce more tornadoes in the future even if we end up with some theoretical ranges in warming from AGW.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, ENSO Update, Environment, Oceans, Tornadoes

I was too busy wringing my hands about existential threats recently to write a little about the latest ENSO diagnostic discussion. I will remedy that for today. For a little background, recall that because a La Nina temperature pattern had formed in the Pacific Ocean last year, some people were coaxed into forecasting a very harsh and cold winter (the Old Farmer’s Almanac did as well). Even I forecast slightly below normal temps and a bit above normal snowfall. After all, the last three La Nina Winters were all below normal and had above normal snowfall.

Subsurface Heat Content

It turned out to be one of the warmest Winters in decades and the warmth lasted into March when it was the record warmest in Wausau, Northcentral Wisconsin, and many other parts of the nation. Arctic and North Atlantic wind patterns ended up dominating our weather and preventing much cold air from flowing south into Wisconsin (or much of the nation).

Now the La Nina has nearly come to an end and the central Pacific ocean temps are expected to remain neutral for the next couple of months. Even though the latest diagnostic discussion claims there is a lot of spread in the computer outlooks for ENSO later this year, it sure looks like most of them are pointing toward neutral to weak El Nino conditions by Fall. Why is this important? If El Nino forms, even a weak El Nino, it usually has an effect on the weather across most of the U.S.

Computer Model Outlook

Almost every time there is an El Nino, we have a milder Winter with lower than normal snowfall. It would be interesting to see if an upcoming El Nino Winter would be as warm as last Winter. That would be hard to achieve. It only takes a couple of big snowstorms to significantly affect temps for a couple weeks at a time. Of course, if a strong El Nino would form, global temps would likely rise a lot (as they did in 1998) and that would bring up a lot more discussion about anthropogenic global warming (AGW).

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update

I was rather disappointed by the northern lights non-appearance last week. I was up on Thursday night but the full moon was out and made them difficult to see. I woke up twice on Friday night to try and catch a glimpse, but the there were clouds in Wausau. Thankfully, a couple of viewers did happen to capture the recent aurora show and Rob Duns put together a little video displaying the pictures which you can check out here. The northern lights are always cool to see. Brian Niznansky, a former StormTrack9 meteorologist tweeted that it was one of the most spectacular things he has seen in a while.

Unfortunately, I am spoiled. Living in the country while I was growing up, during a time when the solar cycle was a little stronger, I used to see the northern light about once or twice a year. I was even out and about the night of the huge solar storm that knocked out power to the Canadian province of Quebec back in 1989. Myself, my sister Wendy and another friend brought sleeping bags out onto the driveway to watch the northern lights. They were so dramatic that we didn’t even need to look to the north. They filled almost the entire sky. There were a lot of different colors and they were all very bright. Since the 1989 solar flare was one of the strongest in recorded history, I am doubtful I will ever be as wowed by the northern lights. I am glad to hear that a couple people did see them last week.

Second on the blog agenda is all the warm weather. We had many record high temperatures over the weekend including 61 in Wausau on Saturday and 63 in Wausau on Sunday, and we probably are not done with the records. Temps could climb up to 70 or a little above on Wednesday and that type of warmth would break a few more record highs across the area. Later this week we will be close to record highs with temps reaching the mid to upper 60s, but we might remain just a couple of degrees shy. Not only does it look warm for the rest of this week, it looks like the jet stream pattern will continue to bring warmer than normal temps next week and perhaps through the end of the month. Right now, there really isn’t that much cold air in sight. If the trend holds then we could have our 4th month in a row of average temps being 6 degrees above normal or warmer, something that I don’t think I have seen occur before in the last couple decades.

Sub-surface heat content - central Pacific

If La Nina was supposed to have an effect on our weather this past Winter and now into Spring, something obviously blunted the effect. I was reading some climate discussions this past weekend and it appears that an arctic jet stream circulation and another large ocean-atmosphere pattern in the Atlantic, conspired to block many of the normal effects of La Nina.

So there wasn’t much going on with La Nina and now it looks like it is ending rather rapidly this Spring. According the the latest ENSO discussion, the Pacific ocean temps should be closer to neutral by the end of April. What happens after that? The computer forecasts indicate a general trend toward slightly warmer than normal central Pacific sea surface temps by this Fall.

Computer models of La Nina/El Nino trend

I have heard many people talking about the possibility of a weak El Nino next Winter. If so, we could be in for two mild Winters in a row. Mind you, notice the words “could be”. Mother nature does not always side with the computer forecasts. There is no guarantee that an El Nino will form.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, Records, Space

Every year we provide tips for surviving severe weather events here in Wisconsin. There is a Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Awareness Week, A Flood Safety Week, Lightning Safety, Safe Boating Week, and Winter Weather Awareness Week, just to name a few. While researching safety tips for an upcoming presentation, I thought I would look at some other types of disasters that do not normally happen in Northcentral Wisconsin, just for my own knowledge, because I never know what might happen in places where I might travel. 

I lived in California for almost a year but I never did feel or experience an earthquake. It must have been one of the quietest earthquake years in California’s history. I didn’t even feel a minor tremor. It is probably a good thing, because I didn’t know how to protect myself in the event of a big quake. I am not going to go through all the different safety and preparedness tips here in the blog, just a couple interesting things I learned. For more in depth information here are a couple of websites I found useful:

Geology.com and National Geographic

One of the more interesting tips was that if you are sleeping when an earthquake happens, you should stay in bed and cover your head with a pillow. Also, if you are cooking, it is reccommended you turn off the stove before seeking safety in your home. I suppose the danger of an electrical or gas fire due to the stove being on is greater than threat posed by delaying your move to get under something sturdy and away from the walls and windows.

When looking at Hurricane safety and preparedness, it seemed fairly simple. Most of the action occurs before a storm arrives. The main safety advice is to just evacuate – have a family disaster plan in place and then be ready to evacuate. Be sure to take your pets as well. Once an area is quarantined by the authorities, they will not let you in no matter what. I have heard second hand of horror stories where people were literally just a few yards from their starving pets but they were not allowed to cross the barricade/check point in order to save them. One piece of advice that I did not find on official hurricane safety sites was to keep an axe in your attic. This is advice I have heard from other people and it is mentioned here. The idea here is that if there is major flooding during or after a hurricane and you are trapped in your house, you can use the axe to chop a hole in your roof so you can get out.

Do any of you have any hurricane or earthquake stories to share? What about any other odd natural disasters that don’t normally occur in Northcentral Wisconsin?

We certainly have not had to deal with many Winter “disasters” this year. The Winter has been pretty tame, but it was not predicted to be that way by some. If you remember back to the Fall, the Farmer’s Almanac and Accuwx were at least two sources that were predicting very harsh Winter conditions across the Midwest, including Wisconsin. I think those forecasts were based mainly on the fact that La Nina was occurring in the Pacific. Last Winter there was a La Nina in the Pacific and it WAS a bad Winter. This year was almost the opposite.

You will recall that even I was predicting a little below normal temps and a little above normal snowfall – mainly due to La Nina. I didn’t go overboard because this Winter’s La Nina was not as strong as last Winter and because I know that La Nina historically has not had as strong an influence on our Winter weather as El Nino. It is true that the last 3 La Nina’s brought colder and snowier winter conditions to Wisconsin, but if you go farther back in history, the correlation is not as clear.

Computer Forecasts for ENSO Trend

So what is La Nina up to now? A moderate La Nina is still occurring but it has shown signs of slight weakening in the past month. Here is the latest monthly diagnostic discussion. The computer models are forecasting a continued weakening over the next couple of months, enough so that it is gone (temps in the ocean would be neutral) around May. I just hope that all of our Winter weather has not been saved-up only to be unleashed upon us in March and April. I wouldn’t mind see some above normal precipitation this Spring (I hate droughts), just as long as it comes as rain and not snow & cold.

Have a fine Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Earthquake, ENSO Update, Hurricanes, Natural Disasters, Weather Safety

One of the more interesting research results I have read recently is an attempt to link La Nina with major flu pandemics in human history. I am unsure why, but I instantly developed a heap of skepticism about this theory/study. I don’t have access to the full paper so I can’t evaluate the results as in depth as I would like, but I will opine anyway.

On a superficial level, this theory might seem to make common sense, in that colder weather is associated with a higher incidence of flu and colds. La Nina is a cooler than normal surface water pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean so perhaps it is also linked with colds and flu. Well, it is certainly not that simple when it comes to the spread of viruses.

The authors of the study speculate that La Nina changes the flight patterns of birds migrating around the globe. Birds carry viruses. During a La Nina, their altered migratory pattern puts them in areas where they can pick up different flu viruses. These viruses then mix and mutate within the birds creating a “bad flu” which eventually causes a pandemic in the human population of the world. The research claim that four widespread pandemics in the last 100 years happened around the same time that La Nina was occurring in the Pacific Ocean.

The Current La Nina, as of January 8th

I think it is just a chance association – a case of fitting data to a pattern without clearly delineating a cause. Here is why:

There are many weather patterns that affect the movement of birds and other migratory animals. The El Nino/La Nina cycle is an important one, but there are many other ocean and atmospheric patterns that could fit the bill. Even long droughts or significant floods can force animals to move hundreds or thousands of miles out of their normal range. Also, different strains of flu spread across the globe every year, not only during times of La Nina. Why would one ocean pattern (La Nina) cause more widespread pandemics than others that similarly cause disruption in animal/bird movement?

On a slightly different note, I have always wondered about the spread of flu and how we tackle the problem. In the absence of a sure-fire 100% technological/medical cure or antidote for the flu, I think it is a somewhat positive thing that viruses spread around the world. I like to think of us as having two immune systems, an individual one and a social one. The social immune system is all of ours, linked through the transmission of viruses.

In the distant past, humans did not travel the globe. When people did start moving large distances they brought “unknown” diseases to new lands. These diseases wiped out indigenous people who did not have any immune resistance built up to the new pathogens. It is estimated that over 90% of Native Americans in the U.S. died because of disease, not because European immingrants directly killed them. In today’s world, millions of people travel from one end of the globe to another every single day. There isn’t much chance for a particular virus to develop/mutate for decades or hundreds of years in a small isolated population in a distant corner of the earth, only to wreak havoc on the rest of the population once it is let out. Most viruses mutate and spread rather rapidly. They don’t have a great chance of picking up several deadly mutations over a long period of time. It would seem that minor mutations occur every year and once the “new” non-lethal viruses spread around the world (the annual flu season) we all gradually pick up immunity – through our social immune system. That is why I don’t mind getting the occasional flu or cold. Like the old saying goes, if it doesn’t kill you, it will only make you stronger. I am afraid that if viruses did not spread around, then we would be more susceptible to deadly versions in the future.

Of course, I am middle-aged, so I do not have as much to fear from the flu as the elderly. If I was older, I might be more germ-phobic. In the end, I definitely support the development of powerful technological/biomedical tools to eradicate all human diseases, pathological or otherwise. Until that point, the constant transmission of non-lethal viruses might be preventing the next big lethal pandemic. (just my little thought/theory about the flu I wanted to share, thanks for your attention, feel free to disagree)

Staying on the subject of La Nina, it is well known that it usually brings about lower than normal precipitation in the southern U.S., which is why folks in Texas were not looking forward to this Winter season. Luckily, many parts of Texas have received significant rain over the last couple of months so the drought is not as bad as earlier this year, but with La Nina expected to persist for another month or two, the situation could deteriorate. Check out the latest U.S. Drought Monitor here.

Lucky for us here in Wisconsin, below normal precipitation does not affect our livelihood too much. Snowmobiling has been non-existent for 95% of the state. Cross country skiing has been a little rough as well. But for food and water purposes, winter precipitation is not as critical as Spring and Summer precipitation. So even though 40% of the state is currently “abnormally dry” and it would be nice to pick up a couple feet of snow before Spring, rainfall will be the key once we get into April and May. That is when we will need it the most.

_______________________________________

And just for the heck of it, here is a little article I read recently about the “Check Engine” light all cars are equipped with. It isn’t weather or science related but it reproduces my opinion on the subject matter quite well. My “Check Engine” light story is this: The only new vehicle I have ever bought in my life came with a 60,000 mile full warranty. At about 60,213 miles the check engine light came on. I thought the timing was rather suspicious. When I took the car into the shop, there was a several hundred dollar list of repairs suggested - most were fixes or replacements of parts I have never heard of – and I know a bit about cars. Suffice it to say, the car was running fine so I didn’t get anything fixed. I have been driving it 5 years hence, all the while with the check engine light on, and it still runs just fine (I don’t recommend this practice, just relating a story here). Do any readers out there have any check engine light stories?

Have a fine Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Drought, ENSO Update, Oceans, Uncategorized

Check here for a big list of record high temperatures around the Midwest yesterday. With the recent spell of record high temperatures in the Midwest, many people are looking for answers. I was amused to hear some national reporters putting the blame at least partially on La Nina. Just last Winter La Nina was blamed for the harsh conditions of heavy snow and bitter cold. If you don’t follow the ENSO situation closely, I suspect one could easily become confused. Plus there are other ocean and atmospheric patterns that can overwhelm ENSO from time-to-time.

If you remember my past few ENSO discussions in the blog, you will recall that I thought La Nina would give us slightly cooler conditions this Winter with a little above normal snowfall. This was based on the fact that the last 3 La Nina episodes DID bring harsher Winter conditions to Wisconsin. However, I was careful to mention that very long term analysis of La Nina (more than the last 3) did not show a real significant effect on our Winter weather. Some years it was warmer and some years colder. A more consistent effect comes from El Nino. Almost every time we have El Nino, the Winter temps end up above normal and precipitation is below normal. The stronger El Nino is, the warmer our Winter.

Ocean Surface Temps Remain Below Normal

The biggest connection with La Nina comes in other parts of the country. La Nina typically has a strong effect on the Pacific Northwest (cooler temps and more precipitation), and the southern U.S. (warmer temps and below normal precipitation – hence the drought in Texas).

For our area, this Winter has been well above normal so far and it looks like it will continue, in general, for another week or so. Some of the computer models are showing a more active weather pattern for the second half of January. It could be colder with higher chances of snow. This is probably because some other atmospheric and ocean patterns (like the MJO) will relax/change a bit and allow La Nina exert a bit more influence.

Models Predict La Nina Will Weaken

So how long will La Nina last? The latest ENSO diagnostic discussion indicates that the strength of La Nina did not change during the past month and that it will slowly weaken during the February through April time frame. In contrast to past months, the computer model projections are in very good agreement about this weakening trend. Therefore, it is doubtful we will have any surprise strengthening later this winter. Given the very mild December and early January we have experienced thus far, it is most likely that this La Nina Winter will end up milder than average. It would take quite a wicked spell of cold and snow to reverse the early Winter trends completely.

_________________________________________

With the recent record high temperatures, no doubt there will be more talk how anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is going to destroy the environment. While the record warmth cannot be pinned conclusively on AGW, the world (including the oceans) has warmed up a little over the last couple of decades . Whether a natural or unnatural temperature trend, we should expect more record highs than record lows. (For the record, I expect more record lows when the next ice age develops. Take that forecast to the bank!)

What is less certain is whether additional warming will cause catastrophic consequences. Many climatologists and ecologists think we are already doomed. Many say the changes that have occurred in the atmosphere are “irreversible”. I have often pointed out that they are not irreversible. If carbon dioxide is the primary problem, then we could always take it out of the air. I know it seems like a mammoth project, but we put it in the air, I am sure we can take it out – if necessary. If you are wondering how this would be accomplished, look no further than the continued pace of technological progress. Just this week in the Journal of the American Chemical Society, a new material was described that can take CO2 out of the air easier and more efficiently than previous materials/processes and this polymer material can be theoretically re-used indefinitely.

So in the near future we might be able to extract large quantities of CO2 from the air, but what will we do with the captured CO2. This is where we need some more inventiveness. Many have proposed injecting the gas underground, but I don’t like that idea as much as breaking it down into its constituent parts. The problem of breaking carbon dioxide into carbon and oxygen molecules is that there is a strong chemical bond between the two elements. It can be broken up but we cannot yet do it very efficiently. Otherwise, once the carbon is separated from the oxygen, it becomes much easier to deal with/bury/use for other purposes.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, ENSO Update, Records, Technology