There was quite a stir in media, climate, and environmentalist circles recently when carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere as measured atop the mountain at Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii reached 400 parts per billion. It is the highest concentration of carbon dioxide measured at that location since measurements began back in 1958. The rising levels of carbon dioxide have caused quite a bit of consternation as you know because leading climate change theories project “dangerous” warming of the planet in decades to come. That is possible, however, people in the U.S. no longer need to shoulder most of the blame.

For years, perhaps decades, even as the air and water in the U.S. was cleaned up dramatically (since the 1960s and 1970s), the U.S. was constantly pilloried for wrecking the planet and destroying the environment. The U.S. was at one time the greatest source of some types of pollution in the world, including carbon dioxide emissions (to the extent it is “pollution” in modern AGW parlance). This is no longer the case. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere might have reached 400 parts per billion, but it was not because of the United States. As I have highlighted recently, in contrast to almost every environmental and energy agency prediction, U.S carbon emissions have gone down DRAMATICALLY.

One of the major reasons for the huge drop in emissions is that we are using more natural gas (and I think this is a very good bridge fuel to the future), but the other reasons are more structural at a societal level. The U.S. and a few other places in the world are gradually divorcing the car (see here as well). It is no surprise to me that younger generations do not want to spend so much of their disposable income and time supporting an auto-based lifestyle. I try to save all the money I can by driving less. Maybe my constant blogging about the benefits (more health and wealth) of not driving cars is sinking in. Here are a couple of other data points that confirm this trend. Since 2006, miles driven in the U.S. have slowly declined. Gas consumption has also been going down in recent years. There are some people who argue that this is bad news because gas consumption has correlated quite well with economic activity in past decades. This is a valid point and probably constitutes part of the reason for the decline (poor economic conditions). However, people also vote with their wallet. They are buying more fuel efficient vehicles. Companies with fleets of vehicles are aggressively pursuing more efficient options – even with long haul trucks. Younger generations are smart enough to forgo cars altogether because they are such a hassle (higher taxes every year, maintenance costs, etc.). From an environmental perspective, it is an extremely positive trend. If this continues, which is quite likely in my view, the U.S. will continue to lead the world in reducing carbon emissions. Whether it was planned or not, the U.S. is leading, even without high carbon taxes or other international-based regulations.

So if younger generations are not driving as much (and they are not having as many kids – which is another great trend, from an environmental perspective), what are they doing? Spending more time on the Internet/phones. They stay connected in different ways. So that might lead one to conclude that carbon emissions are just being shifted from cars to servers. This is true to some extent, and communications are taking a larger piece of the energy pie, but it is much more efficient and less polluting than driving cars. Plus, networks are no where near as efficient as they could be. More waste heat could also be captured from large server centers. Major upgrades at companies like Facebook, Google, and Amazon, are lowering the energy needed to run the world’s websites. Just like younger generations choosing to save money and time by not driving as much as their parents, it is absolutely in the best interest of tech/Internet companies to be more energy efficient.

The Cree 40W LED bulb

Finally, there is another story that has been developing in the past few years that points to a more energy efficient future and that is LED lighting. One company I profiled about 5 years ago was trying to start the LED revolution. It didn’t work out. They could not produce a cost competitive product. Enter CREE into the picture. They are selling a new LED bulb that is much more cost competitive. You can find it, as I did, at the Home Depot. The 40 watt version is only $10. This is a bit more costly than compact fluorescent (CF) bulbs but they are rated to last more than 20 years (using them 3 hours a day). Prices will likely come down as volume expands in the future. They don’t have any of the toxic metals either. The color of light from the bulb that I purchased is very close to the traditional light that comes from incandescents. It is a nice soft yellow-ish light. These are likely the only bulbs I will be purchasing for replacements in the near future. Lighting is a significant percentage of our energy usage around the world. LED lighting will help to reduce that percentage. Another win for the environment.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Environment, Pollution

As I have noted on a couple occasions in the past (Carbon emissions down, and down again), the U.S. is no longer the biggest polluting nation in the world. Almost all metrics of air, water, and soil pollution in the U.S are better than 4 or 5 decades ago. The big surprise for many of the environmental bent is that carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. have gone down. The latest report indicates that carbon emissions are the lowest they have been since 1992!! (another article on the report can be found here).

Kudos to the U.S., anyway, I am willing to say this is a good thing. Unfortunately this good news was not trumpeted very much in national media outlets (unlike the record low arctic sea-ice). I am always talking about positive reinforcement and here is a great opportunity. Environmentalists and climatologists who are concerned about AGW should be online and in media everywhere extolling the virtues of cutting emissions and telling everyone to keep up the good work. With solar panel prices so low, the government could be pushing more people to install them and further lower our emissions. Even if you are skeptical about “global warming” (AGW), using less fossil fuels and cleaner fuels is a great thing because it reduces the U.S. dependence on foreign energy and promotes cleaner air, water, and soil.

China is the world's worst polluter

The U.S. is emitting so much less carbon dioxide that it now only accounts for 16% of the world’s emissions. China has soared past the U.S. and now emits 29% of the world’s carbon dioxide. I wonder how long it will take for perceptions to re-align. For so many years now the U.S. has been endlessly derided as the world’s worst polluter. China, and even India on many metrics, are now much worse. Will environmental organizations now start protesting in China?

So what is behind the dramatic drop in U.S. emissions? It is a combination of things. Alternative energy is playing a small part. The continuing economic slump is playing a small part. The switch to natural gas has made the biggest impact – which I pointed out a few months ago. In comparison to the negative side effects of using natural gas as a transition fuel (fracking problems, potential pollution), the reduced emissions are most definitely worth it.

Some commentators are not impressed, saying that the U.S. is just exporting manufacturing to other countries and that is why our emissions are going much lower while other countries are rising. This is not really true. Yes, manufacturing jobs in the U.S. are under pressure, but the U.S. still manufactures a lot of stuff. According to the U.S. Census bureau, U.S. manufacturing output grew 11% in 2011 up to nearly $5 trillion. So how do we still manufacture so much and yet have lower emissions? Productivity and efficiency. It is happening all around us all the time. It is progress. Progress can be scary, as I have mentioned before here and here, but we must confront it. Without progress or change, I am unsure that life would be very meaningful.

Progress (greater efficiency) happens in such small increments that it can sometimes be hard to notice. No one person can keep up with all the changes, but I try to hit the highlights from time-to-time in the blog. Even though LED lights have not seen wide adoption within the home, they are increasingly used for traffic lights, street lights, parking lot lights, and many more applications. Each light that replaces an incandescent or fluorescent light is an incremental gain in energy efficiency. Automobiles continue to become more efficient every year and the number of hybrids and electrics continue to grow. Appliances get more efficient every year. And the list goes on and on.

Aerogel protects a flower

One seemingly small improvement I noticed the other day was the creation of a flexible aerogel. If you are unfamiliar with aerogel, it is sometimes referred to as solid smoke. It is the lightest solid material known, excluding a similar  nanotube based substance invented/created just a couple of weeks ago. Read about aerogel here at wikipedia. It is a strong super-insulating substance but has not found much use because it is also very brittle. Now along comes flexible aeorgel (no word on the cost yet) and all of a sudden we could have another significant increase in efficiency. Could you imagine how much better aerogel would be at insulating houses, or appliances like refrigerators and freezers? Appliances could be much lighter as well, saving on material and shipping costs.

The little developments matter. As long as the U.S. doesn’t get into another wasteful speculative boom like the housing bubble and its attendant suburban sprawl, the future should be much cleaner.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Technology

Here is a little follow-up on a topic I brought into the lime-light a few years ago – LED lighting. As you remember, I was hoping for a revolution in lighting, but it did not come to pass. LED lighting is making more inroads in the present day but progress is slow. Phillips has come out with a 20 year bulb, but it is still too expensive for mass adoption, retailing for about $50. Another problem besides price is that all of our houses are out-fitted with sockets. LEDs are very flexible and modifiable and can be made to fit in any room, in any arrangement, in any color. The trouble is, people would have to re-wire much of their home in order to take advantage of this flexibility – a problem that other people have noticed as well. Sockets were a good standard approach for the past, but perhaps they have outlived their usefulness.

So what about the sample LED lights I have been using during the intervening 5 years (since my first big blog post on the subject)? The lights that were shaped like standard bulbs are still working fine. I haven’t noticed any decrease in the light intensity or any other changes in performance/function. I also used one of the flood light-type LEDs in one of my desk lamps and that one started mis-behaving just last week. It didn’t burn out but it started blinking. I haven’t tested it out since last week but I will again in the near future and see if the blinking is a prelude to complete failure of the bulb.

Speaking of bulb failures, we also use the CFL bulbs in our house. We have very few incandescent bulbs – maybe 1 or 2 in the whole house. What I have noticed with the CFL’s is that they tend to burn out at a regular rate. It was about 6 years ago that I started switching all of our bulbs over to CFL. Almost all of them them burned out after 6 years. It is if they are designed to fail after a certain point. Incandescent bulbs burn out faster, but they vary quite a bit. I have had some incandescents burn out in a matter of months and others last many years. I just found it strange that the CFL’s all burned out after about 5 years of use, which it the average stated lifespan on a lot of the promotional material and packaging.

I also notice that the CFL’s just don’t “blink out”. Sometimes they burn out, which is not supposed to happen. I have included a picture of one of the bulbs I found “burned”. You can see how the plastic (or ceramic) based material where the lighting element is adjoined to the base of the bulb turned brown because of the heat. This is a little disconcerting and I am not the only one who has noticed. Here is a more in depth, engineer’s take on the situation.

And one last point about energy savings with new lighting technology. As I have mentioned in the past, just because we have more efficient lighting, doesn’t automatically mean that there will be a lot of energy savings or reduced pollution. An unfortunate effect of humans & progress is that when something becomes cheaper to use, we typically use more of it. The same could turn out to be the case with LED lighting. I can see many people thinking, “why turn out the light in the room when no one is in there, it is so efficient, it doesn’t cost as much to keep it burning, right.”

Have a pleasant Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

Before I delve into a few technology “follow-ups” on trends we follow in the blog, I just want to re-affirm that we seem to have turned our back on Winter. I mentioned late last week that the weekend (March 3rd and 4th) would probably be our last true Wintry weekend of the season. Winter tried to hold on yesterday with temps about 5 degrees below normal and a little dusting of snow in the late afternoon, but today Spring has sprung. Judging by the CPC 8 to 14 day outlook and my own perusal of the extended computer models, it seems we can say good-bye to (real) Winter conditions.

8 to 14 Day CPC Temp Outlook

As I mentioned a couple of times, we all know that a big snowstorm could develop later this month or even into April, after all, it is Wisconsin we are talking about, but late snow typically does not linger very long. I think most of the snow around Wausau and further south in the area will be gone by the end of this weekend and in the northwoods it will take about a week after that before most is gone.

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Now a little update on one of the revolutions occurring in energy efficiency. It is a true revolution in lighting, although it has taken a lot longer than what I expected (hard to believe that blog post was almost 5 years ago). So why has it taken so long? Cost. LED lighting, while it could be a boon for saving energy/money and lessening our impact on the planet is still quite costly. A couple of years ago, a single LED bulb that could screw into a regular socket was about $50. Today, some large retail chains are offering them in the $20 to $30 dollar range. I guess this is progress, but it is a far cry from the less-than-a-dollar incandescents we are all familiar with. I imagine it will be a couple of years yet before the price is more palatable for more of the population.

So the cost of LEDs is high but there is still progress in the field. Soraa, a company in Fremont California claims to have created a new LED that burns ten times brighter than other LEDs. They expect to begin selling the bulb commercially this Spring and they claim that the bulb will pay for itself in energy savings in just one year. The price? They won’t say.

Example of OLED tiles

Besides bulbs, there is also a lot of research going into OLED panels. These are organic LEDs that could be made into flexible tiles and used for lighting. A European consortium recently increased the efficiency and lifetime of such devices. Right now, most OLED applications are in touch-screen devices and not in lighting, but that might change in the future.

In the far reaches of LED research, scientists at MIT created an LED that emits more power in light than electrical power that goes into it. Sounds fantastic, doesn’t it? Sounds like a hoax, doesn’t it? It isn’t a miracle. The special LED actually takes some of the heat within it and converts it to light and that is where the extra energy comes from. This doesn’t have immediate applications because it is a tiny LED that operates on extremely low power, but interesting none-the-less.

Even before LEDs become more affordable there are other ways we might be able to save a lot of energy in lighting applications. A Berkeley start-up company is making individual bulbs with cheap microprocessor controllers and sensors within them. This way each bulb can sense motion and determine if there is a need for lighting withing a particular room. Each light could also receive instructions or be programmed to “turn out the light” when it is not needed. This would be particularly efficient for large office buildings where it is rare to need all the lights on (or off) all the time. As long as the extra electronics only cost a buck or two, then I could see this technology becoming more popular.

Another way that energy consumption for lighting and other electronic devices could be cut is to use direct current instead of alternating current. This type of set-up makes more sense in today’s world where we have a lot of gadgets running on DC power but that power first comes from the grid and has to be transformed (losing some energy in the process) from AC to DC (to run the device or charge a battery). Think about it. The main items in your house that need grid power are the big items – refrigerator, washer/dryer, maybe the stove – most other things could be run off of DC, especially all of the digital devices. Powering and controlling lighting could be done with ethernet or USB cables. This type of power set-up might never gain a big foothold in developed countries who are so used to AC power, but in developing nations without an enormous established electrical grid, it might be the perfect solution to merge with alternative energy sources such as solar panels.

As far as my experiment with LED bulbs goes, the sample bulbs I received nearly 5 years ago are still going strong. The light is the blue-ish tinted light common with non-incandescent bulbs, but it does not bother me. The more intense blue-ish light of LEDs is something that is getting better with newer products as well. And just to remind everyone why lighting is so important, 10% of our energy production goes to lighting alone here in the U.S.(as of 1002). Some estimates put worldwide energy consumption for lighting at 20%. With widespread adoption of LEDs, these numbers could be cut to 5% or less, and that means A LOT less pollution and fossil fuel consumption.

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Also, keep your eyes to the night-time sky over the next few days, a very active region of the sun is throwing off some big flares. It is expected to remain active for a few more days, thus increasing our chances of seeing the northern lights. Will mother nature cooperate? Not tonight and tomorrow night. But Thursday night and Friday night might turn out more clear. Take a look here for a cool video showing time-lapse photography of the northern lights and a good explanation of how they form as well as why the colors differ.

Speaking of geomagnetic storms, scientists calculate that there is a 1 in 8 chance between now and 2020 that a mega-solar stormcould hit the earth - one that could potentially knock out power to a good portion of the earth. In a case such as that it would be good to have an off-grid source of electric power. A mega-solar storm is something for which the U.S. is woefully unprepared.

Have a fine Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Pollution, Spring, Technology

Good news! The price of solar panels continues to fall. Although I would temper this news with the acknowledgement that most solar panel producers around the world are supported by government subsidies. Remember what we found out during the Solyndra Scandal. They were selling their solar “panels” for half the cost it took to make them. No wonder they went bankrupt and taxpayers lost their loan money. So the true price of the panels remains unknown, but the trend is good.

This report about India claims that solar panels in that country are now cheaper than running a diesel generator. In fact, the solar panels are typically half the cost of diesel power, not to mention much cleaner. If this trend continues, it will be a no-brainer for Indians to buy solar panels over fossil fuel, and this could perhaps help maintain the fragile (subsidy-supported) industry. This article about solar panel adoption in Africa also hints at the positive trend. The combination of cheap solar panels and one of my other favorite subjects – LED lighting – has made solar electric powered lighting (and gadget re-charging) more feasible than using fossil fuel such a kerosene. Here is an older article about some of the various solar lighting tech employed in remote and poor areas of Africa. Solar/LED is not as cheap as using old plastic soda bottles for lighting, but it is becoming a better option in developing countries.

Remember too, that the efficiency of solar panels continues to increase incrementally year-over-year. Along with the lower manufacturing cost, efficiency gains will make solar even more attractive in coming years. The panel prices here in the U.S. have dropped dramatically as well. The main problem that remains is the installation cost. That is what prevents me from getting solar panels on my roof just yet. For anyone who can figure out a way to reduce the cost of installation there is some money to be made.

So what has driven the cost of solar panels down so much? More efficient manufacturing for the most part (and the aforementioned subsidies). Every day I hear or read about another incremental improvement in solar panel production. Recently, Astrowatt has developed a new method for creating silicon wafers which involves peeling the silicon off the inguts instead of sawing it off. This wastes less material and since polysilicon is one of the more expensive pieces of the solar puzzle, it should reduce the cost by a small percentage. On the power electronics side of things, Arraypower has invented a new type of DC to AC inverter that could cut the cost of big solar installations by 10%.

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Now a follow-up on a developing technology that seems to be flying under radar of popular culture but not under the radar of this blog. It is cloaking. The latest engineering feat comes from the University of Texas at Austin. They have created the world’s first 3D cloak to hide an object in free space. They have used surface plasmons on metamaterials to achieve this feat, which is a little too complicated to explain here. But don’t expect to wear a Harry Potter invisibility cloak anytime soon, this cloaking was again in the microwave range of the electro-magnetic spectrum, not in the visible range, but it is amazing none-the-less.

In a year or two I expect more cloaking developments in the visible range. Perhaps some large scale cloaking might be demonstrated in a decade. I don’t know if people appreciate how much this technology would change society. In the movies, it is usually just the protagonist or villain who has the invisibility cloak, which makes for simple drama. What if everyone had access to this? The ramifications would be immense and unsettling. It would certainly affect the power relationship between oppressive government and the people. It would affect warfare and crime. Like most disruptive technology it would likely be feared at first but accepted eventually.

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Lastly, another report about the attempt to drill into Lake Vostok. In this article, the Russian scientists are quoted as not being certain whether they will be able to complete the drilling before Winter sets in and might have to wait until next Summer (Summer in Antarctica, that is).

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

Since there is almost nothing going on in the weather currently, and it looks like it will remain relatively quiet for the foreseeable future (a couple of weeks at least), it is time to start thinking about the biggest weather stories of the year. Which I will blog about/reveal, a few at a time, on the 28th, 29th, and 30th of this month.

Please help me out. If there is a significant weather event you remember from this year, please leave a comment and let me know what it was. The weather events could be from Northcentral Wisconsin or other areas of the state. Some of the top candidates that have been rolling around in my head thus far are the tornadoes. We had three different occasions when significant tornadoes struck Northcentral Wisconsin. We had a very cool Spring and the Winter seemed to last forever. More months this year were below normal than above normal. We had a couple of large snowstorms early in the year. We had a heat wave in the middle of July. There were a couple of daily records here and there. The weather during the Fall color season was phenomenal! No white Christmas this year. These are just a few of the weather events that might make the final list.

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Follow Up on LED lighting: Seeing as how the incandescent light bulb is being phased out around the world, I thought it would be a good idea to check up on how LED lighting is making headway. As far as bulbs for the home, it is still not a mass market revolution (as I had hoped for a few years ago), but more companies are producing products that will hopefully drop in price and become more widely used. The coolest idea lately is printing thin sheets of LEDs that are flexible and could be used in many places like on a wall.

As far as the upcoming ban on incandescent light bulbs here in the U.S., it appears that might be delayed. The Congress dropped the impending ban when they voted on the new spending bill over the weekend. I am not one who agrees with ever expanding government dictates – based upon philosophical/political grounds – but as far as clean energy goes, there is not much argument when it comes to light bulbs. The CFL and especially LED bulbs are much more efficient than incandescent. The old bulbs do produce a more natural light which I enjoy, but the alternatives are getting much better. The CFL’s do contain small amounts of toxic metals, but it is not something I am terribly concerned about. I don’t think I have ever broken a CFL bulb in my house. I think the cost is the major objection for most people. CFL’s are still typically 5 to 10 times more expensive as incandescent bulbs (LEDs are 10 times or more expensive). In the past, when I looked at the how long it would take to pay-off the more expensive cost of the CFLs, it wasn’t all that great, but there were some savings over the long run due to lower electric bills.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Top 10 List

I bring a lot of information to the blog about the positives and negatives revolving around AGW and alternative energy, but I try to accentuate the positives.

Recently you might have read about the Solyndra scandal and the negative outlook for the solar industry, you might have read about Peak Oil (“just around the corner” – like always), or maybe you have seen evidence of a potential world-wide economic collapse. These are certainly things to take note of but you should also keep your eye on all the progress going on in the world. For those of you with an optimistic eye, here are some recent headlines that highlight the acceleration of technological progress.

* A couple years ago I mentioned how the next entrepreneurs to become rich would be those inventing products that would produce clean energy or increase energy efficiency. In particular I mentioned that roof shingles or windows that went from white/clear to dark/opaque would be a great invention. The shingles are becoming a reality and now the windows are nearing reality as well. Korean scientists have created a window that can go from nearly clear to nearly opaque in seconds. If such a window could be made at an economically viable price, it would shave a significant percentage off of heating a cooling costs around the world.

* Another area that invention is sorely needed in is battery technology and we are getting a lot of progress here as well. Researchers at Leeds University in England have created a gel based, flexible, lithium ion battery. They claim it has the same performance as current lithium batteries. The question remains, will it cost the same or less? A cheaper long lasting battery is what is needed to make intermittent alternative energy sources like wind and solar to be successful. Storing energy needs to be cheap and a Pittsburgh company has developed a new easy to manufacture and cheap auqeous battery. Will this be the breakthrough that speeds the adoption of alternative energy? LG Chem, the South Korean company that provides batteries for some commercial EVs for sale in the market today, have developed a lithium ion battery that holds 3 times as much energy and charges faster as well.

* In the solar industry, even though the economy is not helping out much right now, innovation continues at a rapid pace. A collaboration of Universities from around the world recently developed the most efficient (6%) colloidal quantum dot solar cells ever produced. These have the potential to be cheaper because they are much easier to manufacture. Besides creating electricity, work is being done to capture more heat from the sun as well and do useful work with it. Scientists from MIT have designed (simulated) a solar heat system using carbon nanotubes and azobenzene that is potentially 10,000 times more capable of storing energy. Researchers in Illinois have recently developed 3 dimensional photonic crystals that should also help to create more efficient solar panels and LEDs. If solar panels were “blacker” and absorbed all the light that strikes them, they would be more efficient and that is where this recent material developed at Purdue University could come into play.

* Even at the smallest of scales, there is a lot of energy to be saved. Here is one such example that has been saving energy (a trillion watt-hours and counting) since 2003 – slowing down transistors. Engineers at the University of San Diego, implemented a technique to slow down transistors that are not being used in electronic devices in order to stop them from “leaking away” electricity.

* In the realm of “inventions” that are making their mark in the real world, how about zero emission housing? A couple of real functional houses were recently constructed in Chicago to prove it can be done at an affordable price.

* Being a big fan of LED lighting for its positive environmental profile, I was happy to see Taiwan finally got smart and changed all of their traffic signals to LEDs.

These stories and a bunch more that I didn’t have time for, have all popped up in the last few weeks. Yes, even during this great recession, progress continues.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy

We continue to get new information about Sunday’s tornado outbreak and I am pleased to share it with you here. The NWS of Green Bay has issued a report on the tornadoes that happened in northeast and central Wisconsin. They have been very busy so it is probably not complete. Based on past reports, I suspect they will eventually add a few more pictures and radar images that explain the situation.

Also, we finally have some video of the tornado damage in Forest county (courtesy of WBAY in Green Bay). The NWS of Marquette surveyed the area and I suspect they will have some pictures to share soon. If we don’t see any thing in the next couple of days then I will contact them and ask about it. It would be interesting to see and ariel shot of the forest in that area because the tornado was on the ground for over 10 miles and had a damage path up to 600 yards wide.

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A few weeks ago I gave a presenation about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) to a community group here in Wausau. I presented some history of the climate and a history of apocolyptic predictions about human influence on the planet. As you know, the end of human society as we know it is predicted every few years. Each time it is a different method of destruction and this time around the leading candidate is AGW. It is not that AGW does not have the potential to create significant problems in the future, just that some people take it to the extreme. If you read the blog, you know that some forecasters think that the human population will be less than a billion by 2100 and/or that the entire biosphere will be destroyed, and/or a runaway greenhouse effect is going to make the earth more like Venus - real quick like.

I mentioned that despite the recent and ongoing “great recession” in the country, technological progress continues. This progress helps us live more efficiently year after year. One fellow at the presentation was not so sure that we would escape calamity this time. He was particularly concerned about the increasing acidity of the oceans and depletion of resources. Looking at the human landscape you might wonder how are we going to feed all these people without more greatly affecting the oceans or the land? I wonder about this also and thus I was interested to read this story just yesterday. It is about growing plants in “artificial” environments. Just when you thought modern agriculture could not get any more efficient or productive, along comes LED lighting. Amazingly these Dutch researchers grow plants without sunlight, only red and blue light from LEDs. They also keep the temperature constant and turn the lights on-and-off to simulate night and day. They also use much less water than normal “outdoor” or greenhouse agriculture. The plants produce greater amounts of produce in shorter amounts of time. Why? Interestingly, plants do not need the full spectrum of visible light that comes from the sun in order to grow – only red and blue. Outdoor plants waste energy protecting themselves from the harsher rays of the sun and thus grow more slowly. The only problem with these methods so far is the high cost of the LED lighting. I also wonder about the taste of the veggies. It would seem to me that something growing outside in the soil would pick up an essential flavor – call it earthiness – that might not be replicated indoors.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Ag Weather, AGW, Climate Change, Ecology, Tornadoes

What has been obvious to me for a few years is now permeating the psyche of more scientists and technologists. That is, how advancing technology and progress has the potential to completely transform our socio-economic system and on a time frame that was recently unthinkable. Just a few days back I linked to a report about how the world could be completely powered by alternative energy by 2030. That research is now getting wider play. I hope it reaches the ears of the IPCC working groups (who are in charge of anthropogenic global warming, or AGW, projections). I have been harping for a few years now that assuming a “business as usual” scenario for fossil fuel usage through 2100 is not very likely. I highly doubt we will be driving gasoline cars in the year 2100. The founder of Project Better place thinks electric cars will outsell gas cars by 2020!

The IPCC has a tough job on its hands trying to predict future trends and that is why they forecast a range of scenarios. Unfortunately, the only scenario they do not entertain is declining fossil fuel usage after the next decade or two. (I did my own projection a couple weeks ago) I think I will have to get in touch with the current working group and find out what scenarios they are working. I will suggest that even if they think a lower fossil fuel scenario is unlikely, it would be useful as a metric of how we could benefit if we focused a little harder on alternative energy. Even if you don’t think humans have much affect on the climate, using less fossil fuel would make the air, water, and soil a lot cleaner – so it would be a great benefit.

Just another little tidbit here on newer cleaner technology: CREE has announced the production of an A19 LED light bulb. They expect it will acquire an Energy Star rating. The only thing they did not announce is the price. That is always a sticking point with new technology. They did say however, that the bulb was designed with low cost in mind. As you know, I was a little early on the LED-bulbs-for-the-home scene a few years ago, promoting one of the first bulbs on the market, which now sells for an outrageous $50 online. Now seems to be the time for LEDs as CREE is not the only company pushing this envelope. Phillips and Lighting Science Group also have standard LED light bulbs for sale.

Since lighting takes up 20% of our energy usage (if memory serves me right), this is another area where we can improve our impact on the planet. LEDs could cut the energy needs of lighting by half or more.

Lastly, a note on the present weather, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is ine effect for the entire area from noon to midnight exceptClark, Jackson, Monroe, Juneau, and Adams counties. A storm system moving through the area this evening could produce up to 5 inches of snow in the northwoods, 2 to 3 inches around Wausau and Marathon county, and an inch or less of snow south of Stevens Point.

Have a pleasant weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Technology, Winter Weather

Once I pick up a subject, I have a tough time putting it down, especially when it is an evolving and interesting development (such as private space travel, which I decided to stop blogging about a few months back, but I wanted to mention because SpaceShipTwo made another succesful test glide yesterday). As you know, I am excited for the great potential for a cleaner energy future. Because of this, I have followed the progress of LED lighting for a few years now. I was quite “jazzed” a couple years back when a company announced they would be making reasonably priced LED light bulbs for the home – you can read about it it here: A True Revolution in Lighting. In the end, the company (Polybrite) could not bring down the cost for mass consumption. They sell their bulb for $50 online. It turned out to be a dud, however, the whole field of LED lighting continues to advance. Prices continue to come down and major companies are finding more and more uses for LED lights. Chili’s restaurants plan to replace all of their current lighting with LEDs over the next couple of years! The advantages of LEDs are obvious but the cost is still a problem for mass adoption. Many experts expect LED to be close to 50% of the residential lighting market by 2020. My house is already partially lit by LEDs.

While reading about lighting and LEDs, I came across this interesting article about another change we (society) could implement in order save energy and pollute less – putting LEDs in street lights and powering them with alternative energy. Sounds great doesn’t it? I figured that many cities and utilities would have already done so if they had the opportunity. Stunningly, according to this TechCrunch article, utilities are not necessarily gung-ho about the possibility. I was unaware that in many communities the utility companies are the ones who are solely responsible for the operation and maintenance of street lights. So even if communities wanted to switch over to LED lights running on wind or solar power, they might not be able. I suspect that the vast majority of utilities would favor more energy efficiency, but there was at least one recent allegation in Kansas that a utility was purposely using inefficient bulbs in order earn a few more bucks (charging the city for electricity).

Discussing the predictions and progress of LED lighting brought me back to the subject of technology and AGW once again. If LED lighting (much of it run by alternative energy) is eventually going to win out (by 2020), then predictions of fossil fuel usage in the future (and resultant climate projections) are almost certainly too high. What brought this point home to me even more was perusing the most recent outlook for nanotechnology. Some of the visionaries expect big progress in energy production – meaning more efficiency and more alternatives.

So when I read about what the climate might be like in the year 3000 (more global warming), I admit, I have to roll my eyes. It is an interesting study, but I doubt it has much relevance to what is actually happening on earth right now. Set aside the fact that no computer model can hope to predict that far into the future, the fact is, humans and the present pollution we generate will not be around for much more than a couple decades hence. Here is yet another study warning about the potential of the earth warming to levels that were seen during the distant past - ASSUMING carbon emissions continue at their current rate. Thanks for the warning, but I find fault with the premise.

This is not to say that technological progress is fait acompli, just that the odds are increasing that we will find ways to move away from fossil fuels and clean up the environment rather quickly (in geologic time). No one should wantonly pollute, betting that ”future” technology will make things clean and safe once again. Everyone should try to understand how our actions affect the weather and climate in order to help make decisions about the future. However, I give you permission to disregard forecasts about the climate in the year 3000.

Have a fun weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Technology