The latest long range monthly outlooks have been released by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and if you are hoping for an early Spring you might be in luck. I say might because looking ahead months in advance is still a very in-exact science. The March outlook for Wisconsin indicates a significant chance of above normal temperatures across Wisconsin and most of the Great Lakes region. As a bonus, there is also a greater than normal chance of above normal precipitation. I am always happy if we head into the growing season with some added moisture. It helps everything turn green and start growing vigorously right away.

CPC March Temp Trend

Now just remember, as you are reading this and thinking about a potential mild March, don’t forget that the rest of the month of February is looking rather Winter-like. We have to get through the next couple of weeks before we will see whether or not the CPC forecast is correct. Also remember that above normal precipitation in March could mean either rain or snow. If we end up with a couple of big storms dumping several inches of snow, it might not seem like an early Spring, even if the majority of the days in March are above normal.

CPC March Precip Trend

As far as the longer term goes, the three month average of March-April-May is also predicted to have a chance of above normal temperatures in our part of the country. Otherwise, all other periods in the forecast indicate EQ or “equal chances” of above or below normal temps and precipitation. So basically, after a possibly mild March, the computer models can’t discern any major trends through the Summer.

Now an update on the current Wintry pattern referenced above. Light snow will continue off-and-on for the rest of today and might accumulate an inch or so. On Thursday another storm moving through the upper Midwest has the potential to produce 2 or 3 inches of snow but current charts indicate it might track through southern Wisconsin and not bring a whole lot of snow to Marathon county and further north. The third storm of the week will be developing later Sunday into Monday morning and has the potential to create several inches of snow. It is still too early to say where in the state the heaviest snow will fall.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, forecast

I hope everyone was able to stay safe over the weekend during the snowstorm. It seems the forecast turned out ok with the heaviest snow occuring north of Marathon county. Rhinelander reported 4.0 inches on Saturday. Wausau only had a half inch. I suppose winter enthusiasts might be getting excited about the possibility of a long snowmobile, ski, and ice fishing season. I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade, but Winter has not arrived yet. I know there is a good amount of snow on the ground in the northern half of the area, but this week and next look fairly mild. As of now, it looks like the will not be any major outbreaks of cold air for the next couple of weeks, which would take us through early December.

CPC December Temp. Outlook

What about the rest of the Winter? As we detailed last month, the official CPC Winter forecast does not indicate a greater chance of colder than normal temps or greater snowfall for Wisconsin. Officially, the CPC is saying we have an equal chance of being above or below normal. In contrast, the computer models continue to show a little better than equal chance that we will have harsher than normal Winter conditions (the possibility of more cold and snow). As an aside, some other outlets, such as the Farmer’s Almanac and Accuwx, have issued forecasts calling for a very bad Winter with a lot of cold and snow.

Dec-Jan-Feb Temp Outlook

Go here to find the latest monthly computer model outlooks issued by the CPC. Interestingly, the forecast for the month of December is for equal chances of above or below normal temperature and precipitation, yet for the entire Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb), the models are indicating a greater chance of colder than normal temps with above normal snowfall (for most of Wisconsin). In my mind, this would mean the Winter might get off to a slow start but then turn much colder and snowy for January and February. Personally, I would like to have it the other way around. I would rather get the bigger snow storms and cold waves out of the way in December and early January and then have milder conditions by February.

CPC Dec-Jan-Feb precip. outlook

In any case, it looks like mild conditions for this week, including high temps near 50 for Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, and above normal conditions for much of next week, so Winter enthusiasts will have to temper some of their enthusiasm. Even though the weather will be warmer, overnight low temps in the 20s the next couple of nights should ensure that Granite Peak has a few runs open this weekend as planned. Be sure to check the Granite Peak website , before making plans. With the milder conditions, the first ice might not develop well until sometime during the first week or two of December.

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Now just a couple of follow-ups on some Space stories you might be interested in and that I have mentioned previously in the blog. The Mars Science Laboratory is scheduled to launch on its mission this Saturday, the 26th of November. It is the biggest and most sophisticated rover to be sent to Mars. The rover is the size of a small car and weighs about 1 ton. Hearing that it weighs a ton makes me worried that it might get stuck in the martian sand. The last two rovers experienced quite a few instances where they had trouble getting stuck. Hopefully the wheels on this behemoth (officially name Curiosity) are big enough to keep it “afloat”. Keep your fingers crossed that everything goes well. The success rate of Mars mission is a little less than 50%. In fact, just 2 weeks ago, a Russian Mars mission was lost when it got stuck in earth orbit – probably due to a mechanical or computer failure.

Also on the forefront of private space travel, the company Blue Origin recently successfully launched and landed their vertical take-off/landing spacecraft. This company has been much more secretive about its designs and plans in the past. It is nice to see them release a video. I am unsure when and/or if they plan to take private astronauts (and payloads) to the edge of space or into earth orbit.

In the event that a much desired robotic mission is sent to Jupiter’s moon Europa, there is an increased chance of finding signs of life after an analysis of the planet’s exterior showed there could be liquid water lakes much closer to the surface that thought in the past.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Space

As Tony mentioned yesterday, it was sure nice to see the sunshine. I hope you took advantage and stepped outside because it looks like mainly cloudy conditions from today through Sunday. The sunshine on Wednesday helped push the mercury up to 32 degrees officially here in Wausau. It was the first time we have experienced 32 or above since the end of November. It hasn’t been bitterly cold every day since then but temps have been at least 5 degrees below normal on average across the area. Temps should remain near normal (in the 20s) through early next week and then we could end up with some 30s late next week for a warming trend to round out 2010.

January Temp Prediction

Some of that warmer than normal weather could linger into the new year, but for those who don’t like winter too much, don’t get your hopes up too high. The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) long range outlooks indicate a greater chance of below normal temps during the month of January. If you are hoping for an early Spring (like last year), again you might be out of luck. The CPC outlook for January through March indicates a greater chance of below normal temps. You can click through and look at the next 12 months here.

Jan-Feb-Mar Temp Prediction

One interesting thing in the January through March time frame is that the computer models are forecasting a slightly greater chance of above normal precipitation for most of Wisconsin. This would be typical for the La Nina pattern we are in. As of now, it looks like La Nina will gradually weaken over the next few months but not end until late Spring. The next La Nina diagnostic discussion will arrive in early January. If nothing has changed with the La Nina outlook, then I would lean toward a forecast with more snow in the new year and a later Spring than last year.

One nice thing about above average snowfall in the winter is that we don’t have to worry about drought. It doesn’t matte that much during the winter when the ground is frozen, but it is sure nice to get off to a good start in the spring with a nice snowmelt to help recharge the area lakes, rivers, and groundwater. According to the latest US Drought Monitor, the recent snowfall has once again made Wisconsin drought free! What a nice Christmas present from old man winter.

Lastly, you just have to see this time lapse video of the sunset on Mars. I don’t do regular space exploration updates anymore in the blog but I just had to share this one. One thing to note is that JPL did insert some custom frames in order to make the time lapse smooth. It doesn’t make the experience any less real, it only fills in the gaps between actual images taken by the Mars Rover. Special filters on the camera generate the approximate color for the human eye. If you think that is neat, just wait until the Mars Science Laboratory arrives on Mars with its high definition video camera. 

Stay tuned next week for some top ten in 2010 list relating to weather, science, and technology. If you have some suggestion for the biggest weather events of 2010 in Northcentral Wisconsin, let me know in the comment section below.

Have a fun Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under CPC Outlook, Drought, Space

Thanks to everyone who sent in photos of the flood event that occurred late last week. We were able to show many of them on the air and it helped document how the flooding was so widespread. Here is one last picture that might give you a chuckle. It was taken by Cynthia Johnson along the Rib River in Taylor county. During this flooding event the street sign was no longer adequate. An interesting side note is that I have been down this road in the past. On many maps it is shown as a through street which it is not.

Flooding along the Rib River

The road ends at the Rib River. It is fairly shallow at this location and when I was there it looked like people with big trucks and/or ATVs still cross through the water. I was fishing on that day and ended up at the dead end. DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME: I took a chance and drove my tiny car across the river. The water was a little more than a foot deep and I was probably quite lucky that my car did not get stuck or floated a bit down the river. There was little danger of drowning since the river doesn’t get more than 2 or 3 feet deep along that stretch, but it sure would have been a pain-in-the-you-know-what if I had gotten stuck. It would have been costly to call in a tow truck.

I went fishing this past weekend and I was blocked quite often by flooded roadways near the Wisconsin river. This time, I did not attempt any foolish crossings since the rivers were dangerously high. For trout fishing, the high water ruined that chance of catching a fish in most of my favorite spots. On the big water, such as the Wisconsin River, the fishing was surprisingly good. I stopped by the Castle Rock dam in southern Adams county and people were catching all kinds of fish. Dan, the fellow that owns the bait shop by the dam said that the fish come toward shore out of the current to get food. Due to the high water, there is a lot of new territory for the fish to forage in and they take advantage. I saw pails full of bass and people hooking a couple muskies. For musky fishing, I don’t know if there is a better place than the Castle Rock dam. Throughout the year, there are a handful of 40 inch plus muskies caught every week! Dan has all the proof in pictures. It is also a good spot to catch large 20 inch plus brown trout – a reason I keep coming back.

Some other odds and ends:

Be sure to enter the “First Snowfall Contest”. You can enter real easy here: http://waow.upickem.net/upickem/registration/login.asp?contestid=21669

Once again there are some great prizes provided by the R-Stores(25 different locations!) of northcentral Wisconsin. Just think how much ice melter you will be able to buy at the R-Store if you win one of the gift cards. If you want to take a bit more of a chance (and perhaps increase your odds of winning the random drawing) then pick a date in October or December. Otherwise our first inch of snow usually comes in November. One entry per person. Good Luck.

I have recently spent a little blog time knocking down a couple forms of alternative energy (primarily grain ethanol and biodiesel in general, and wind energy a bit) and it was about time I got around to space solar energy. The idea is to put solar panels in space and then beam the energy down to earth for use. It is doable with enough money (the large initial investment is a big drawback) and the technical hurdles are not that bad. Here are a couple of articles with different approaches: article one and article two. The one part of the equation many people are not talking about is the environmental aspect. I am quite sure that environmental organizations will put an end to this idea because of the requirement of “beaming” energy down to earth. A large percentage of the energy will be absorbed by the atmosphere. I suspect many people will be unnerved about the air being hit with a additional beam of radiation from space all day long.

CPC Outlook:

Due to my recent vacation and the flooding, I was not able to get to the CPC long range outlooks released last week.

Feb-Mar-Apr Forecast

The most interesting change for our area is that there is now a bit higher chance of colder than normal temps for our area late in the Winter and in early Spring. Also of note is the forecast for a greater chance of warmer than normal weather in October. This should be great for getting out to see the Wisconsin Fall colors. You had better act soon though. The colors are peaking in the northwoods this week! It seems the colors are turning almost a week early this year.

October Forecast

I was out for a drive yesterday and took a few pictures. I hope to share a few of these pics tomorrow.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, CPC Outlook, First Snowfall 2010, Flooding, Viewer pictures

Just a little follow up on the space exploration information from yesterday: another article proclaiming the death of NASA’s manned space exploration plans. A panel of experts concluded that the dream of returning to the moon by 2020 is just that – a dream. The NASA budget might allow us to send a mosquito to the moon, but that is about it – and that budget will probably shrink even further as the U.S. recession worsens later this year. As I mentioned yesterday, it seems for space enthusiasts our best hope for exploring space lies with private companies. If the government would just get out of the way, we could end up with some faster development in this sector. Or perhaps the government should more openly cooperate with private firms as is suggested in this article. It might help solve some of the budgetary woes.

Drought News

As I expected the U.S. Drought Monitor does not show any improvement in drought conditions here in the state of Wisconsin over the last week. Huh!? Just a reminder that the official drought calculation is a combination of 6 different parameters including; soil moisture, precipitation during the last month, during the last 6 months, area water levels, etc… Rain over the last week is only approximately 1/6 of the calculation. Thus we will have to wait another week or so to see improvement in the drought status in Wisconsin. When the August rainfall is fully incorporated into the calculation, I expect we will see a rapid decrease in the area of Wisconsin covered by “official” drought. We already know subjectively that the landscape is much more green and lush than back in July.

Long Range Outlook

Also arriving today is the latest CPC long range climate outlook. Once again it is showing a high chance of above normal temperatures for the upcoming winter here in our area.

Dec. - Jan. - Feb. Temperature Prediction

No doubt this is due in large part to the developing El Nino. As long as El Nino sticks around through the winter, we should end up with warmer than normal temperatures. It is one of the most reliable long term signals for Winter weather in Wisconsin. It was during the last two El Nino episodes that we did not have a white Christmas in Northcentral Wisconsin and we had many record warm temps. Depending on the strength of the El Nino (if it sticks around through the entire winter), this year could be similar. I would hedge against good snowmobiling conditions. During an El Nino winter we usually have 2 or 3 large snowstorms and not much in between. You can check out all the monthly maps here.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Drought, Space