It was great to see a nice gentle rain come down across the area this morning. It wasn’t as heavy as I had hoped but it was widespread. Everyone got wet this morning – even the northwoods. Rain amounts at the time of this writing were in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range in most of Northcentral Wisconsin, with a few spots a bit higher. More good news is that more rain chances are in the forecast for the next 7 to 10 days. It doesn’t look like we will have any real drought-busting rain, but mostly likely enough to prevent the drought from getting any worse. There will be a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday and again late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.

One interesting development that could impact our future weather is the demise of the most recent El Nino.

Computer Model Forecasts

 According the to the latest ENSO diagnostic discussion, the El Nino is gone and there is now a neutral temperature regime in the tropical pacific. Even more interesting is that the experts are forecasting the development of La Nina over the next couple of months. They are forecasting the development of La Nina (colder than normal tropical pacific water temps) even though the majority of the computer models predict neutral conditions to continue. A couple of the models are predicting La Nina and recent observations show the cooling trend continuing. What does this mean for our Summer weather? I can’t say for sure, but I hope it means more rain. The ENSO conditions have a much greater effect on our winter weather. If La Nina does develop and last into the upcoming winter then I would hedge toward a colder and more snowy winter here in Northcentral Wisconsin. The last three times we had La Nina during the winter, the conditions were colder and more snowy.

Space News:

While Mars has been combed for signs of life for decades, Saturn’s moon Titan has been relatively ignored until the Cassini spacecraft arrived. Now, the data returning from Cassini’s many probes of Titan indicate a slight chance of life existing on this very cold moon. This would not be life based on liquid water like here on earth but life that survives on hydrogen and liquid hydrocarbons. Read about it here.

Also, a follow-up on the Mars500 project. The “astronauts” have now entered the simulatorand will attempt to remain in there for 520 days. They will try their best to mimic every aspect of a real mission too Mars. I am still wondering about the decision to have all men. If there will be long stretches of boredom, I would think couples could find some things to do. Then again, couples usually don’t spend every waking hour together in a cramped space. They might end up killing each other.

Have a nice weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, Space

I was going to review some of the latest anthropogenic global warming (AGW) news in today’s blog post but its pretty boring because there isn’t much new. Basically: the planet, the environment, and all living things are doomed, and it is all your fault. A simplification for sure, but I am trying to add some humor.  So, do your best to save energy and promote cleaner alternatives.

Actually, one story did catch my eye – eating less meat might not have much of an effect on AGW. This appears to be one of those mistakes that have been popping up lately in some AGW reporting and calculations (like the Himalayan glaciers and the Amazon rain forest hyperbole). According to air quality expert Frank Mitloehner of the University of California Irvine, the way greenhouse gas emissions from meat and milk production was calculated by the UN was different than what was used for grain and vegetable production. The meat/milk calculation included all contributions from the life cycle of meat/milk production (such as the carbon contribution from fertilizers, transport, equipment, etc) whereas the calculation for vegetables/grains did not. Meat/milk production still produces more greenhouse gases than vegetable/grain production but the previous calculation over-estimated the contribution by nearly 1 order of magnitude.

One problem I see with relying on grains for the diet of the world’s population is that it isn’t a very nutritious diet. Grains are cheap and taste good but IMO, are a net negative for long term health. The traditional vegetables (and some fruit) are where you get the most nutrients with the least health drawbacks – but they are also more expensive and carbon intensive. Organic meat, dairy, and eggs, also contain most, if not all of the essential nutrients required by the human body. The trouble with pushing a vegan diet on the world’s poor is that they will only be able to afford the worst “vegetables” – the grains, and they will be put at risk of missing essential proteins. In more advanced countries, vegans can plan their diet very well and purchase every supplement needed to maintain health. If nutritious vegetables and fruit were less expensive, then I could see promoting more vegetarian consumption around the world.

Space News:

More interesting to me is space exploration, and the potential of human travel to Mars has captured my attention in recent years. In order to learn how to cope with such a long lonely mission through space, a mock space ship has been created in Russia and a mock 520 day mission is about to occur. Previously, a mock 105 day mission took place. 6 astronauts were locked in the “ship” for 105 days! Now 6 astronauts are going to be locked in the capsule for 520 days, although 3 lucky “astronauts” will be able to “leave” for a mock landing on the Martian surface for 30 days halfway through the mission. Does anyone think they could sit in an enclosed environment like a small spaceship for 520 without going crazy? I think I could do it, although it would be tough. Mental stimulation would be the key. If there was enough to do each day, it would be much easier. When reading the article, I had to wonder if the crew will be made up of equal numbers of men and women (or “couples”), because…well…some types of physical activity could help pass the time. Then again, I don’t know too many couples who could be together every day in a tiny space for 520 days without some friction, lol!

In other Mars exploration news, the Mars Science Laboratory – a nuclear powered robotic rover named “Curiosity” - continues to get ready for its big trip in 2011. It has been plagued with some cost overruns and now a glitch has been discovered in the nuclear power source. This shouldn’t delay the launch too much, and it seems like a good move to use a nuclear power source this time around as it will not be subject to dust storms like solar panels would be. There have been a lot of discussions about what Curiosity should or should not do. The main thing I would like to see is video from the red planet – enough with the still pictures already. It would also be nice if the rover would move a little faster than Spirit and Opportunity. Opportunity has been on Mars for 7 years and yet has only traveled 12 miles – talk about a snails pace. A nuclear powered rover should be able to cover a lot more ground and make many more discoveries.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Space