The plane used by NOAA to study hurricanes, and now winter storms. Image from NOAA.

A Gulfstream twin-engine turbo jet used to study hurricanes will be put to work to help forecast winter storms this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  

In an article published Jan. 12^th, NOAA says the jet will be flown around the North Pacific Ocean in January and February.  It will deploy sensors to “collect information where the jet stream and moisture from the ocean interact and breed potentially powerful winter storms that impact North America several days later.”

On board the aircraft meteorologists will be looking at a host of atmospheric conditions.  Included in their laundry list are wind, pressure, temperature and humidity levels.

In the article, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Capt. Barry Choy says that comparing the information gathered with the sensors with satellite imagery “significantly enhance[s] four-to-seven day winter weather forecasts.” 

NOAA uses the plane to study hurricanes during the late summer and fall seasons.  Its selected flight path will be to the east and west of Hawa’ii where the plane is currently stationed and as far north as Alaska. 

To read the article in its entirety and to see photos, log on to: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120111_g4hawaii.html

Posted under Arctic climate, Environment, forecast, Hurricanes, International Weather, Nature, new media, Oceans, Science, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Storms, Weather and Health, Weather History, Weather NEws, World Weather

Image from NOAA

The winter solstice is the shortest day of the year, but even a little bit of sunlight created a brilliant photo op from space.

Check out this incredible image from NOAA–its an image of the earth that includes all of South and North America plus parts of the North Pole and Antarctica taken on the 2011 Winter Solstice. 

Here’s the desription provided by NOAA: “Taken on December 22, 2011, this full hemisphere scan from the GOES East satellite shows Earth on the 2011 winter solstice. The solstice is the shortest day of the year, and is also notable because the Sun’s angle relative to the planet is at its most southern point, leaving the North Pole in darkness. The high angle is evident in this image, were no visible cloud imagery can be seen over the North Pole, whereas the South Pole is well lit. Clouds are actually present over the North Pole (and would be visible in infrared imagery), however the visible imager sensor on GOES requires sunlight to capture imagery – and there is no sunlight at the high latitudes.”

To see the image in more detail follow this link:  http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail.php?MediaID=912&MediaTypeID=1

When you get to the page, if you click on the image once, you’ll get an expanded zoom that shows amazing detail! 

It’s a bit astonishing to look at the image.  The earth looks so quiet, peaceful and calm.  You can’t tell that millions of people are on it, living their lives unaware of their photo being taken from space. 

What a nice way to bring in 2012, by seeing the earth from afar, and perhaps to reflect on what an incredible gift it is! 

And happy new year! 

Posted under astronomy, Environment, International Weather, Nature, new media, Science, Weather NEws, World Weather

NOAA accurately predicted the path of Hurricane Irene in August.

Accurate forecasting of hurricanes is very important.  And when it came to Hurricane Irene, the National Oceanic and Atmoshperic Administration nailed it. 

NOAA recently released a video that overlays their prediction from four days before the storm’s landfall with the actual path the hurricane took.  (Watch the video HERE). 

You’ll see that when Irene moved through the Bahamas the track it took was exceptionaly close to where NOAA forecasters predicted it. 

That’s good news.  Hurricanes cost money.  Evacuations are time-consuming and stressful.  But the better we get at predicting their path, the less negative impact they’ll have making a situation that has no upside a bit easier to manage. 

Posted under Hurricanes, International Weather, Natural Disasters, Storms

All the talk of the federal government debt has me somewhat concerned over the future of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.  While this branch of government is by no means a hog in terms of the U.S. government’s entire budget, it still uses a sizable chunk of money.  If push comes to shove, I wonder how much of it will get cut in future years? 

The fiscal year 2011 proposed budget for NOAA is roughly $5.5 billion.  Of this about $1 billion is earmarked for the National Weather Service.  Of course the National Weather Service if vital in providing forecasts to the public including severe weather warnings.  NOAA as a whole controls other sectors which deal with the monitoring and health of the oceans, putting weather satellites in space, and climate research.  They develop and operate computer weather models and install weather radar systems across the U.S.  You can read more in depth about NOAA’s budget  breakdown from the following link.  http://www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/nbo/11bluebook_highlights.html

It would be extremely difficult to keep track of the weather to the high level that we are now used to without their equipment and information.   Local National Weather Service offices lead educational weather seminars for broadcast meteorologists.  Justin and I have gone to many of these and they are a valuable resource for training and staying up with the latest advances in weather technology and theory. 

I have several friends that work for the National Weather Service.  I worry for them and their families.   It’s not nice to think about someone losing a job, government employee or not.  I sure hope people realize the importance of keeping a strong and progressive weather service going on the national and state level.   Public health, safety, commerce, transportation, and many other interests are at stake when it comes to dealing with the weather.  I urge people to contact their lawmakers and tell them this is a critical agency and please do not cut it to shreds.

Posted under Community, Uncategorized

I have been busy preparing a presentation on El Nino and La Nina (the ENSO cycle) over the last few days (and a lot of gardening) so I didn’t have too much time to blog. Sorry for the lack of engaging weather content!

The big news from the world of weather is that NOAA released their hurricane forecast for the 2011 season. Interesting enough, one of the reasons why it is expected to be above normal with more intense hurricanes than normal is because of the ENSO cycle. Even though El Nino and La Nina occur in the Pacific ocean, their influence extends to the Atlantic. When there is an El Nino during hurricane season, it typically increases the wind shear over the sub-tropical Atlantic. Higher wind shear makes it more difficult for intense hurricanes to form. When the Pacific temps are neutral or in the cold phase (La Nina) then there are typically more intense hurricanes and more of them have historically tracked close to the southeast U.S.

The official NOAA forecast is for 12 to 18 tropical storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes. Read the full report here.

Have a great weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, Hurricanes

I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday weekend and enjoyed the time with family and friends.  The festive season is upon us but it looks like no real snow makers are in the near future.  I don’t know about you but if it is going to be cold I just want it to snow… or not be cold!

I forgot to mention this weekend that you can check out my continuation to my outdoor reports by seeing just what a hodag is and why it represents one Northwoods community.   It is a funny and cute story.  We had alot of fun with the history of the creature. 

Lastly since hurricane season ends tomorrow I thought I would just touch on what kind of a year we saw….

Overall we saw the busiest Atlantic hurricanes on record, where as the North Pacific cause the fewest storms on record since the “satellite era” began. 

The Atlantic had a total of 19 named storms which ties with 1887 ( so surprised by this!!) and 1995 for third highest on record.  12 became hurricanes which ties 1969 for the second most hurricanes in a season.  Out of those hurricanes 5 reached hurricane status of Cat 3 or more which is a major hurricane.  These numbers were in the range of what was originally predicted. 

As stated at the beginning of the year the high Atlantic count was due to favorable climate factors: warm waters, favorable winds of Africa and weak wind shear from the newly formed La Nina. 

Luckily what was in the US favor was the small scale factors.  The jet stream’s position contributed to warm and dry weather across the eastern US which pushed most of the storms out to sea.  There was a common trend of storms running parallel the Untied States and eventual curving back out to sea.

For more information and the write up from NOAA click here!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Tropics, Weather NEws, Weather Safety, Winter Weather

As I mentioned last week and has been obvious for those on the scene for 2 weeks now, the Gulf Oil Spill has “disappeared”. Not disappeared entirely, but gone in the sense that there is hardly anything left floating around in the water. Clean-up of beaches and marshes continues, but it now looks like the threat of an extended environmental disaster is highly unlikely. NOAA (the source of some of the wilder original predictions about the scope of the spill) held a press conference yesterday where they said 70% of the oil was gone and 30% was under the surface. I would have to say that I am a bit skeptical of the 30% left figure given that oil in the Gulf typically lasts a week before it naturally evaporates or is degraded by bacteria. Even before the well was capped, the oil was not making it very far (such as the west coast of Florida) before being naturally degraded. Now that it has been stopped for a couple weeks, there should be even less oil in the water. Some scientists are legitimately worried about the oil and dispersants that has entered into the food web, however, the claim that this oil will be around in the Gulf for years (as some suggested a couple months ago) just doesn’t stand-up anymore.

A couple choice quotes from the NOAA/government press conference. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs:

“I think it is fairly safe to say … that many of the doomsday scenarios that we talked about and repeated a lot have not and will not come to fruition,”

If they had listened to rational scientific views (in addition to the worst-case hyperbole) they (the White House) probably would not have been as prone to spreading unwarranted and unproductive fear and hysteria. The rate at which oil degrades in the Gulf is well known but seems to have been mostly ignored in this case – except by BP’s scientists and their CEO who said the spill would have a “modest” impact. Tony Heyward may have not been very sensitive in his remarks early on, but it is starting to look like he was correct about the impact.

From Larry McKinney of Texas A&M University:

“BP attorneys are placing this in plastic and putting this in frames.”

This is in reference to the fact that a less destructive oil spill means BP does not have to pay as much money clean-up and other economic losses. So what. I am no fan of BP and I know they have had a shaky environmental and legal history, but I don’t think they should pay more than the losses incurred. Perhaps this is where most of the skepticism of the oil spill’s demise comes from. Perhaps there were many politicians and others waiting in line to take a piece of the recovery fund and now that it is not “the world’s worst environmental disaster” they see some cash slipping away.

Lastly, this is good news. An widespread catastrophic environmental disaster has not materialized.

More good news: A drought disaster was averted in Wisconsin this year. Based on the first 5 months of the year, it was looking quite dire for the northern half of the state. I didn’t even consider going into the northwoods to go fishing in May because the  water levels were so low. I had to head south to find full streams. How things have changed in the last couple of months. The U.S Drought Monitor now indicates that 87.1 percent of the state is drought free. Last week only 76.9 percent was drought free, so we have seen a good improvement in the past week. There is still a small area (2.3 percent of the state) of severe drought in the far northeast so hopefully we will see some rain in those areas soon. The next chance of widespread heavier rainfall will be from Sunday through Tuesday of next week. The heat and humidity will increase during that time frame so there could be some heavier downpours.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Environment, Pollution

Another government climate agency is being proposed to monitor the climate and its changes around the U.S. and the world. The details are scant right now but it will apparently operate under NOAA which also oversees the National Weather Service, the National Ocean Service as well as 4 other related services. From what I have read, the name will be the National Climate Service (NCS). This sounds like a good idea to me unless it involves the creation of numerous new jobs. Creating a new federal bureaucracy in the midst of the “Great Recession” does not seem like a good idea. In my view, personnel for the NCS should be moved from other weather and climate agencies. We already have hundreds, more likely thousands of researchers and government professionals focusing on climate within NOAA, UCAR, NCAR, NASA, NCDC, all branches of the military, etc… I don’t see the need to hire hundreds more.

One thing about the announcement written by the AP that bothered me is the terminology. Once again we see the words “climate change” instead of “global warming” or the more appropriate “anthropogenic global warming” (AGW). While it is true that “global warming” is a subset of all “climate change”, the use of the latter seems inadequate. The climate changes. The climate always changes. The climate changed in the past. The climate will change in the future. Using the broad term does not adequately convey what is the root cause nor what negative impacts can be expected in the future. Besides, for nearly 2 decades the media and most research institutions have hammered the term “global warming” endlessly. It is only in the last couple of years that the term “climate change” has crept into the headlines. If carbon dioxide is increasing and more carbon dioxide will warm the planet, then just call it “global warming” as was the case from 1989 all the way through the mid 2000s.

As I have mentioned before, I think the change in terminology has come about because the earth has not warmed much if at all over the last decade (depending on what dataset you look at). Couple this with the fact that we are in our third winter in a row of “harsh” conditions in one of the world’s largest media centers (U.S. east coast). Summers have also been relatively cool. Not only that, the areal extent of arctic sea ice has expanded, not shrunk, during the last couple of years. A negative phase of the Atlantic and Pacific MDO might keep the cooler trend in place for another decade or two (according to some climatologists). I can imagine it would be a little uncomfortable to continue using “global warming” as a headline when you are walking out into the bitter cold and heavy snow winter after winter. 

I have seen a push-and-pull between AGW theorists and skeptics over the last couple decades and lately the skeptics have been doing a lot of pushing. AGW theorists can only blame themselves. For years every hurricane, every drought, every flood, every disease outbreak, every tornado, every melting glacier, and particularly every heat wave was blamed on AGW (“global warming”). I do not exaggerate. It is no surprise that skeptics now use every snowstorm and record cold spell (and there have been plenty over the last couple years in the US) to skewer the other side. What is the saying? Turnabout is fair play. The AGW skeptics are of course met with condescension – the typical response being “you don’t understand the difference between weather and climate, one snowstorm does not mean global warming is done”. That is true, however the climate is defined by the average weather as well as the extremes and there is now a new “extreme” for snowfall (record seasonal snowfall) in the Nation’s Capital and many other east coast cities. When all-time records for cold and snow are being broken that does mean something, even if these are small data points in a global data-set. Also, while one cold snowy winter does not change the long term trend much, when you have two or three in a row then you have to at least start to consider that a new cycle (a short term cycle perhaps) is upon us. If the cooler trend continues for a few more years, I think we will see more focus on the MDO and solar cycles and their effects. If the coming summer is a scorcher, no doubt the AGW theorists will push back, but it would be better for science if they kept a level head.

Have a fine Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change