I was rather disappointed by the northern lights non-appearance last week. I was up on Thursday night but the full moon was out and made them difficult to see. I woke up twice on Friday night to try and catch a glimpse, but the there were clouds in Wausau. Thankfully, a couple of viewers did happen to capture the recent aurora show and Rob Duns put together a little video displaying the pictures which you can check out here. The northern lights are always cool to see. Brian Niznansky, a former StormTrack9 meteorologist tweeted that it was one of the most spectacular things he has seen in a while.

Unfortunately, I am spoiled. Living in the country while I was growing up, during a time when the solar cycle was a little stronger, I used to see the northern light about once or twice a year. I was even out and about the night of the huge solar storm that knocked out power to the Canadian province of Quebec back in 1989. Myself, my sister Wendy and another friend brought sleeping bags out onto the driveway to watch the northern lights. They were so dramatic that we didn’t even need to look to the north. They filled almost the entire sky. There were a lot of different colors and they were all very bright. Since the 1989 solar flare was one of the strongest in recorded history, I am doubtful I will ever be as wowed by the northern lights. I am glad to hear that a couple people did see them last week.

Second on the blog agenda is all the warm weather. We had many record high temperatures over the weekend including 61 in Wausau on Saturday and 63 in Wausau on Sunday, and we probably are not done with the records. Temps could climb up to 70 or a little above on Wednesday and that type of warmth would break a few more record highs across the area. Later this week we will be close to record highs with temps reaching the mid to upper 60s, but we might remain just a couple of degrees shy. Not only does it look warm for the rest of this week, it looks like the jet stream pattern will continue to bring warmer than normal temps next week and perhaps through the end of the month. Right now, there really isn’t that much cold air in sight. If the trend holds then we could have our 4th month in a row of average temps being 6 degrees above normal or warmer, something that I don’t think I have seen occur before in the last couple decades.

Sub-surface heat content - central Pacific

If La Nina was supposed to have an effect on our weather this past Winter and now into Spring, something obviously blunted the effect. I was reading some climate discussions this past weekend and it appears that an arctic jet stream circulation and another large ocean-atmosphere pattern in the Atlantic, conspired to block many of the normal effects of La Nina.

So there wasn’t much going on with La Nina and now it looks like it is ending rather rapidly this Spring. According the the latest ENSO discussion, the Pacific ocean temps should be closer to neutral by the end of April. What happens after that? The computer forecasts indicate a general trend toward slightly warmer than normal central Pacific sea surface temps by this Fall.

Computer models of La Nina/El Nino trend

I have heard many people talking about the possibility of a weak El Nino next Winter. If so, we could be in for two mild Winters in a row. Mind you, notice the words “could be”. Mother nature does not always side with the computer forecasts. There is no guarantee that an El Nino will form.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, Records, Space

Well, the much talked about solar flare turned out to be a bust. We were lucky enough to have clearing skies after midnight last night but I did not see any northern lights. I even turned our skycam to the north and recorded the sky but to no avail. It there were some faint northern lights, I probably would not have been able to see them anyway because the full moon was out. I mentioned a couple of different times for people to not get their hopes up too high and I am glad I did. The space weather forecasting biz is in its infancy. The energy from a solar eruption/flare streaming toward the earth morphs and changes before it reaches us so even some of the biggest flares that seem to be pointed right at the earth end up fizzling out or only delivering a glancing blow.

Something that I would really like to see fizzle out is the clock change this weekend. Yes, you guessed it, Daylight Saving Time (DST) is this weekend, although it doesn’t “save” anything. In fact, every year, we find out more bad things about this dumb archaic practice. Check some of my past blog posts about the subject here and here. This year, research shows that heart attacks increase by 10% after the clock change and it leads to less productivity at work. So now, other than being a pain in the you-know-what, causing us to waste a lot more energy, creating more traffic accidents, and increasing depression, it ruins productivity and kills people (heart attacks). What more do we need to know before ending the madness. About the only remaining reason to move the clocks forward in the Spring is so that more people can enjoy more daylight after a typical work-day during the Summer. I get up in the morning to enjoy the outdoors in the Summer so I would rather not change the clocks. Other countries around the world are dropping DST because it is dumb. When will the U.S. drop it? I don’t know. 

____________________________________

When discussing alternative energy and a more efficient energy future, most people focus on the big things like transportation and manufacturing, but where energy usage is growing the fastest is in computing. Data centers that hold all of our online information are huge energy “hogs”, and growth in the industry is likely to continue. It is good to know, then, that even in the smallest of places, energy efficiency is increasing.

The electronic chips that power our computers and gadgets are not only getting more efficient but are starting to use light instead of electrons for many of the computational and data transmission tasks. Light signals use a lot less energy and create a lot less heat. The key invention that will help continue this trend is miniature lasers. APIC corporation recently announced a germanium based laser that could fit well into the conventional silicon computer chip manufacturing process, Altera is using fiber optics instead of copper interconnects to transmit information between chips, and IBM has recently created the most efficient terabit per second optical transceiver. The computer servers sitting in huge data centers are getting smaller and more efficient as well. Just think of how much more efficient the computing centers will be once they are running on light instead of electricity.

The New Apple Data Center

Producing energy for the data centers has been a big concern but we have seen some progress in this arena as well. Many big computer and Internet companies are turning toward alternative energy and even locating their data centers near alternative sources like hydroelectric dams. In Apple’s case, they are planning to build a big solar array at their new North Carolina data center. I am not a big fan of Apple products (even though I know they are good) because I can’t tinker with them, but I will give the company kudos for planning some solar power for their data center. Now we just need to convince them to spend more than a little spec of their $100 billion cash hoard on alternative energy.

So if you hear depressing news stories about how we are wasting energy and burning fossil fuels like there is no tomorrow and that we are destroying that “tomorrow”, just remember that progress continues.

Have a pleasant weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Space, Technology

In my little round-up of northern lights and space news yesterday I forgot to mention that it seems Virgin Galactic it taking its time testing its launch and flight capabilities. This article indicates that they will try their first rocket powered flight sometime later this year and that commercial operations could be as far as two years away. I wonder what is slowing things down. I was expecting private tourist flights already late this year. SpaceShipTwo doesn’t seem too much different from SpaceShipOne. Then again, I am not an aerospace engineer, so I probably underestimate the difficulty of flying a ship to the edge of space or beyond. I am sure safety is of paramount concern. One accident early in the operation of private spaceships could derail the whole industry. The private space industry requires paying happy customers. It is different than NASA where accidents are tragic but the funding keeps flowing.

Also, today is the day when the biggest solar flare in the last 5 years is supposed to strike the earth, although, I will remind everyone that space weather forecasting is quite tricky, so if nothing happens and there are no northern lights, I wouldn’t be surprised. If the flare hits as expected, then keep you eyes to the northern horizon late tonight. There is a chance the clouds could clear up enough after midnight to allow us to view the potential auroras.

______________________________

 In the world of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) there is never a shortage of news and research and I try to bring a few different themes to the blog. Just yesterday I came across some opinions from a climate scientist that has a similar viewpoint to my own. That is Judith Curry from Georgia Tech (mentioned previously in the blog). Some people would probably like to pigeon-hole her as a hard core skeptic, “denier”, “flat-earther”, “environmental terrorist”, or what-not, because she withdrew her support for the IPCC, but in this recent article I think you will find a balanced and nuanced view of the science and politics. It is worth the read if you follow the AGW story. In contrast to my focus on technological progress and alternative energy, Professor Curry worries a bit more about bias. I also think it is something the IPCC might take too lightly. When most alternative theories and conflicting data is shoved to the sideline, there is a high danger of group think (within the IPCC). Errors can be compounded.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Space

Some NASA astronauts just released one amazing video.  It’s a four minute and 56 second video that time-lapses the International Space Station’s rotation around the earth. 

The video is amazing.  It’s quality is superb.  And when you see it you get the opportunity to see features of the Earth from a perspective you’ve likely never seen before. 

The Aurora Borealis, or Northern Lights are incredible to see looking down on the Earth instead of from the surface to the sky.  Seeing the collective lights of our planet’s cities matched under the clouds visible from space is beautiful. 

Plus, the trance-like music the video is set to is very relaxing! 

Check out the video here: http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/8373771/astronauts-share-orbit-of-earth-in-stunning-time-lapse-sequence

Posted under astronomy, Environment, new media, Science, Technology

I was quite upset this morning when I read that spectacular northern lights were out last night. It is fairly rare to see northern lights in our area, and they are hard to predict, so when they do occur I always hope to be awake and out in the night air too see them. Given that I wake up during the wee early morning hours in order arrive at work on time, I would expect to have a better chance than most to see the northern lights. But I missed them. By the time I woke up this morning, clouds were already in the area. From reports I have see and read, the lights were out from sunset onward.

What makes this episode particularly depressing is that the northern lights were spectacular. Judging by the pictures, it looks like they were the best since 1989. Anyway, the best I have seen. The northern lights last night were farther south than usual being seen all the way down to Arkansas. Check SpaceWeather for a recap of the event and pictures from many different states.

October 24 Auroras

What makes this even more galling is that even though the geomagnetic storm was not well predicted days in advance, it was noticed at 1pm yesterday afternoon by satellites orbiting the earth. A fellow in Madison (Randy Halverson) was alert to the short-term forecast of auroras (northern lights) and got these beautiful pictures. I guess I should pay a little closer attention to geomagnetic storm alerts. I used to check the forecast on a daily basis, but after the sun went into a very quiet spell during 2009 and 2010, I stopped watching because it seemed there would never be northern lights again. The good news is that the solar cycle (sunspots and flares) is more active now and it is supposed to remain active into 2012. This means there should be better than average opportunities to see the northern lights. During the winter, the viewing is often better because of the longer darker nights and the clear dry air.

If anyone happened to get pictures of the northern lights last night, feel free to send them to weather@waow.com and perhaps I can show them on the morning show later this week.

________________________________

From a glowing sky to a glowing ocean, researchers now think they have discovered what cause large patches of the ocean to glow bright blue. It is possible that plankton (dinoflagellates) are creating all of this light. They have been known to possess the capability of bio-luminescence and now scientists have (possibly) figured out how it happens through the motion of the water disturbing the flow of electrical current through the body of the plankton .

Plankton Glowing in the Ocean

But why would large areas of the ocean glow with the light of these plankton? It is likely happening during rare large blooms of this particular plankton, similar to how red tides sometimes occur. The plankton just take over an area of the ocean to the detriment of other life. They sometimes produce higher concentrations of toxic chemicals due to their over-abundance.

The glowing blue ocean had been a reported for centuries, but was not confirmed by satellite until 2005. I can’t imagine how eerie and beautiful it would be to travel through a bright blue glowing ocean at night. Don’t hold your breath for seeing this phenomena anytime soon. These blooms are probably more difficult to predict in space and time than the northern lights. It would be a rare occurrence indeed to see both at the same time!

Have a fine Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Nature, Oceans, Space, Viewer pictures

First off, we noticed a problem with the comment section of the blog last week and I was told it was fixed this week but I would like to know for sure that people can comment. So I am asking someone, anyone, to try to leave a comment today. Maybe you were itching to comment on a past blog entry. Maybe you wanted to refute some controversial statements. Now is your chance.

Secondly, yesterday I mentioned the slight possibility of northern lights developing this week but I have not seen or heard anything yet. I will be up tonight to take a look. If we don’t get northern lights, there is always a chance you could see a falling star (like several people did earlier this week) or even a falling spacecraft. NASA is expecting the old UARS satellite to fall back to earth later this month or in early October. I hope they can more accuratley pinpoint the location and time of the re-entry in coming weeks because it could be quite a light show. UARS is big enough that pieces of it might survive all the way to the ground. With all of the different materials and metals in the satellite, there could be a lot of different color as it disintegrates.

Not only are things falling from the sky, NASA scientists have been sending “scientific” sounding rockets into the atmosphere, in fact all the way up into the ionosphere, in order to study how changes in the earth’s magnetic field (specifically magnetic dynamos) affect electromagnetic signals to and from the surface and space. Maybe they will find out something new about how the northern lights (geo-magentic storms) affect communication and power distribution as well.

Lastly, it is NFL kick-off time of year and it looks like great weather for the Packers-Saints game at Lambeau field tonight. The stars should be twinkling overhead as temperatures at the stadium fall through the 60s as the game progresses. Not only should the weather be good during the game but travelling to and from Lambeau field should be just fine. Go Packers!

Have a fine Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Space

The weather continues to be perfect for this time of year which means clear skies over the next couple of nights, which would be great for viewing the northern lights…if they are on display. The sun let out a huge solar flare on Tuesday of this week which can sometimes lead to good northern lights. Experts don’t expect dramatic geomagnetic activity (northern lights) but forecasting such things is an immature science. From what I have seen, the forecasts for northern lights have not been too accurate in the past (although I admit I do not have any objective data to prove it). I am thinking since the official forecast is for not much geomagnetic activity, perhaps tonight and even Thursday night will be good nights to take a look to the north (taking the contrarian view). The only trouble is that we have a waxing gibbous moon right now and it will be out during most of the night for the next couple of nights. Check sunrise, sunset, moonrise, and moonset times here. If you end up getting any pictures of northern lights this week or in the future, please send them to weather@waow.com. Keep track of space weather forecasts here.

_________________________

Here in the blog, I like to practice the seemingly lost art of the “follow-up”. Looking back through the years of blog topics there are probably too many subjects to follow-up on but I do focus on a few. For those interested in space and space exploration, I still discuss the Mars rovers a bit and I try to follow the development of private spaceflight as well. The most exciting news on this front lately is that Spaceport America in New Mexico is almost complete. It is on schedule to “launch” its first sub-orbital Virgin Galatctic flights next year.

Also, private space companies might be required in order to keep the International Space Station up and running now that NASA is without a viable space vehicle to transport humans and the Russia Soyuz recently experienced a crash.

Unfortunately, a private space company also experienced a crash recently. The very secretive Blue Origin space vehicle did not suffer a serious malfunction. It was just going off course and automatically shut off its engines. Then it crashed to the ground.

__________________________

As for a follow up on the newest cold fusion discovery/device in Italy earlier this year, I have had no luck getting a hold of the original author of the article I linked to. I guess I will have to go straight to the source and see if the Italian inventors speak English. In any case, they claimed earlier this year that “in a few months” they would be selling their device all over the world and it would be a proven technology. I am still skeptical.

_____________________

The last follow-up is in regards to getting meteorological seasons officially included on standard calendars. No luck in this regard. I contacted three of the top calendar companies in the U.S. by email but did not get any real replies. One of the companies said they respond within 24 hours. Sure, I got a response. It was a cut-n-paste answer to a question I didn’t even ask. Such is the state of customer service in the 21st century. Maybe a phone call will get better results – although a person needs great investigatory skill to find a phone number on many big company websites nowadays.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Nature, Seasonal Items, Space

First I want to let everyone know that I will NOT be reminding everyone to turn their clocks ahead this weekend. I don’t think it makes sense anymore (as explained in previous blog posts) so I am not going to be the one to remind you to turn your clocks ahead Saturday night or early Sunday morning. I am not sure why it is the traditional duty of meteorologists anyway.

Secondly, I was wondering if anyone saw the northern lights last night? I briefly looked to the northern sky before work this morning but I did not see anything. If they arrive tonight we will be out of luck because more clouds will be rolling through the area.

Thirdly, the big international news is the big earthquake and tsunami that Japan last night. For reference, here is a list of some of the biggest earthquake/tsunami combos  that have hit the earth during recorded history. Amazingly, the world record tsunami was over 1,000 feet! Luckily it hit a remote area of Alaska and only 2 people were killed.

The death toll in Japan will be much higher but it could be much worse. Japan is probably the most prepared country in the world when it comes to earthquakes and tsunamis. Even though it is a devastating quake, much of the country is still standing. The tall buildings all follow strict earthquake codes. Their infrastructure is also hardened against quakes. If this size earthquake hit Los Angeles or San Francisco the devastation would be an order of magnitude worse. Our cities are not as well built or prepared for “the big one”.

Another valuable thing that will be learned through this tragedy is how to deal with an environmental disaster when electronic communication is down. Our modern society is surprisingly extremelydependent on Internet and satellite communication. This morning, news outlets were reporting that cell phone service went down after the quake. Other information services were likely affected. Being that Japan is one of the most technologically advanced societies on earth, there will be important lessons to be learned about how to respond and survive without electricity or modern communication.

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Geology, Natural Disasters

First of all, let us take a look at some of the snow totals from yesterday’s storm. At one point we were forecasting 4 to 8 inches of snow but over the last couple of days reduced it to 3 to 6 inches. It ended up about as expected with the lightest amounts in the Northwoods and heaviest in the south

• Boulder Junction 1.0″
• Armstrong Creek 2.5″
• Pearson 3.0″
• Phelps 1.8″
• Tomahawk 3.5″
• Crandon 4.0″
• Wausau 2.6″
• Scandinavia 4.4″
• Whiting 3.25″
• Wautoma 6.6″
• Arkdale 6.4″

In Wausau, the total snowfall for the season now stands at 64.1 inches. Normal snowfall for the “cold” season in Wausau is 58.6 inches.

Surface Temps During Feb

The good news for everyone hoping for Spring to arrive is that the sun will be out today and tomorrow and that will likely melt most of the snow that fell on Wednesday. Other news that you might have been following for the last few months is regarding La Nina. This Pacific ocean pattern is the primary reason why we had cooler than normal temperatures this Winter along with above normal snowfall. The latest ENSO diagnostic discussion indicates La Nina continues to weaken. The ocean water temps are expected to go neutral (neither La Nina or El Nino) by the end of May. That means we could still feel some of the effects of La Nina for the next month or two.

CPC Model Forecast for ENSO

Could there be a late snowstorm in April or May? With La Nina around, I would say the chances are greater than other years. After La Nina weakens, the CPC computer models are not indicating a definite trend for the Summer and Fall months. Some of the models show neutral conditions other show a return to La Nina, while a couple show El Nino developing.

__________________

Last month I blogged about our bad luck in seeing the northern lights. When there were large solar flares on the sun the weather tended to be cloudy here in Wisconsin. Finally it looks like we might have a chance to view some northern lights tonight. A very large solar flare erupted on the sun yesterday. That means the next day or so will be our chance for seeing northern lights. This time around we should have clear skies, at least tonight. Friday night will be a bit more cloudy. I will keep my eye open before I come to work Friday morning. Let us know if you see anything. Pictures are nice as well.

Even though I would like to see some dazzling northern lights, I hope they don’t get too out of control because they could cause disruptions in our electrified society. Not many people realize how dependent we are on electronic communication and electric power. If a large solar flare hit the earth and brought down the electric grid we would be in a world of hurt.

Something else that might have caught your attention is the “super moon” that will be in the sky on March 19th. There are some websites (the usual suspects) that have predictions of environmental Armageddon. Earthquakes, tsunamis, major storms, basically everything is being predicted for the 19th of March. What is the “super moon”. It is when the moon is at perigee (closest to the earth) and it is full. This happens about once a decade. Why would people predict such dire consequences from the “super moon”? It is because the moon will exert a greater gravitational pull on the earth on March 19th. Is the difference enough to trigger environmental calamities? Not likely. unbeknown to many, the moon not only cause tides in the ocean, it causes tides on land. How big are the “land tides”? A couple centimeters. When the moon is closer,  such as withthe “super moon”, the land tide will be greater by a fraction of a percent. You would need special equipment in order to detect the difference. Would the difference be enough to trigger massive earthquakes? Again, not likely. We know that the ocean tides, landslides, and heavy rain can be the final trigger for an earthquake that has been building up for a while, so the “super moon” cannot be ruled out. However, if the “super moon” did regularly trigger environmental calamities, it would be well known throughout human history. People would have become accustomed to death and destruction about once every decade because of the “super moon”. I don’t recall history books ever mentioning the “super moon”, so I am not to worried about March 19th. Let us keep an eye on it and see what happens.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, Geology, Natural Disasters, Snow Totals

Once again we seem to be missing the northern lights. Grrr! Did anyone see them earlier this week when we had clear skies? People in northern latitudes have been seeing the lights and one researcher in Alaska was able to take a nice picture. I wonder if the big solar flare that erupted on the far side of the sun a few days ago did eventually send some energy toward the earth, perhaps indirectly by sparking some activity on the near side of the sun. Unfortunately, we will have mainly cloudy skies for the next few nights so it will not be good viewing for northern lights. Lucky for us, the sun is in an active phase right now and it should last into next years. This means there will be more opportunities in the future.

Speaking of solar activity, more and more of the sun’s energy reaching the earth is being turned into electricity, but installing the solar panels is not always as easy as planned. In the U.S. several big solar projects are in operation or planned for the desert southwest. Of all the possible obstacles to setting them up you wouldn’t think that religion would be one of them. Apparently, some Native American groups are looking to block the constructionof solar arrays in the Mojave desert because it will disturb historic religious sites or unknown burial grounds. These same projects also found resistance last year from of all people – environmental groups. Their claim was that large solar “farms” would disturb the natural habitat. To which I thought “duh!” Most of the alternative energy products, from wind turbine, to solar panels, to tidal generators and biofuels, have some drawbacks. What environmentalists should be asking themselves is if it is worth covering a few acres of desert in order to stop using fossil fuels. To most, this would seem like an easy decision, but maybe it is not. We could spend some time searching for the optimal placement of solar panels, but I think we would still end up in the desert. As far as the religious objections go, I can empathize with the Native American groups, but there has to be multiple ways to build a solar farm without disturbing important religious areas/artifacts. And as far as halting construction because there might be someone buried there, nothing in the world would get built if that were the criteria.

Arnold Schwarzenegger would certainly have a hard time achieving the mandate for California to generate 33% of their energy from alternative sources by 2020, if no new solar plants are built. Arnold gave a speech recently where he said advocates must fight and defeat the enemy (fossil fuel industry), otherwise it will be very slow going. I have to disagree with that a bit. Just last week I highlighted here in the blog that U.S carbon emissions have decreased dramatically in the last 3 years - even without a slew of new laws, taxes, regulations, and mandates. People like clean air. People like saving money. As the price of fossil fuels continues to rise, more people will switch over to alternatives by their own free will.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Environment, Space