As I mentioned last week and has been obvious for those on the scene for 2 weeks now, the Gulf Oil Spill has “disappeared”. Not disappeared entirely, but gone in the sense that there is hardly anything left floating around in the water. Clean-up of beaches and marshes continues, but it now looks like the threat of an extended environmental disaster is highly unlikely. NOAA (the source of some of the wilder original predictions about the scope of the spill) held a press conference yesterday where they said 70% of the oil was gone and 30% was under the surface. I would have to say that I am a bit skeptical of the 30% left figure given that oil in the Gulf typically lasts a week before it naturally evaporates or is degraded by bacteria. Even before the well was capped, the oil was not making it very far (such as the west coast of Florida) before being naturally degraded. Now that it has been stopped for a couple weeks, there should be even less oil in the water. Some scientists are legitimately worried about the oil and dispersants that has entered into the food web, however, the claim that this oil will be around in the Gulf for years (as some suggested a couple months ago) just doesn’t stand-up anymore.

A couple choice quotes from the NOAA/government press conference. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs:

“I think it is fairly safe to say … that many of the doomsday scenarios that we talked about and repeated a lot have not and will not come to fruition,”

If they had listened to rational scientific views (in addition to the worst-case hyperbole) they (the White House) probably would not have been as prone to spreading unwarranted and unproductive fear and hysteria. The rate at which oil degrades in the Gulf is well known but seems to have been mostly ignored in this case – except by BP’s scientists and their CEO who said the spill would have a “modest” impact. Tony Heyward may have not been very sensitive in his remarks early on, but it is starting to look like he was correct about the impact.

From Larry McKinney of Texas A&M University:

“BP attorneys are placing this in plastic and putting this in frames.”

This is in reference to the fact that a less destructive oil spill means BP does not have to pay as much money clean-up and other economic losses. So what. I am no fan of BP and I know they have had a shaky environmental and legal history, but I don’t think they should pay more than the losses incurred. Perhaps this is where most of the skepticism of the oil spill’s demise comes from. Perhaps there were many politicians and others waiting in line to take a piece of the recovery fund and now that it is not “the world’s worst environmental disaster” they see some cash slipping away.

Lastly, this is good news. An widespread catastrophic environmental disaster has not materialized.

More good news: A drought disaster was averted in Wisconsin this year. Based on the first 5 months of the year, it was looking quite dire for the northern half of the state. I didn’t even consider going into the northwoods to go fishing in May because the  water levels were so low. I had to head south to find full streams. How things have changed in the last couple of months. The U.S Drought Monitor now indicates that 87.1 percent of the state is drought free. Last week only 76.9 percent was drought free, so we have seen a good improvement in the past week. There is still a small area (2.3 percent of the state) of severe drought in the far northeast so hopefully we will see some rain in those areas soon. The next chance of widespread heavier rainfall will be from Sunday through Tuesday of next week. The heat and humidity will increase during that time frame so there could be some heavier downpours.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Environment, Pollution

With what is forecasted to be an extremely active Atlantic Tropical Season, one may think it is turning out to be a dud…but not so fast.  We have yet to reach peak season, which arrives a month from now.  Tropical activity should really start to heat up quickly these next few weeks.   Tropical Season peaks in September because this in when the waters are warmest.

In the near future, it looks like things will remain relatively quiet.  Tropical Storm Colin has recently diminished.  There is a slight chance the remnants of Colin may reorganize and regain tropical storm status in the coming days, but shouldn’t be much of a threat to land.  There is also Tropical Invest 92 in the southern Caribbean.  This disturbance may also eventually strengthen to tropical storm strength, but will stay way south of the U.S. mainland.

This tropical season the Gulf’s main concern of course is how a tropical storm or hurricane would affect the oil spill.  So far, thankfully we haven’t found out.   But in all reality, hurricane season is just getting started.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Hurricanes, Tropics

This is going to be a quicker post than usual.  I am trying to work on a new graphic that I have been itching to do for quite a while!

Discovering the earth is fairly easy nowadays, we have planes, we have vehicles that can get us to almost every inch on earth.  It is a different story when we try and explore two other areas- space and the ocean.  There is something that gets me any night I look up in the sky.  It is the same feeling I get when I lay on the beach and stare at the vast ocean in front of me.  I have always been a huge fan of space, studying the stars and planets.  The ocean intrigues me but is kind of scary! There are tons of crazy and different creatures out there and lots of unknowns.

I really enjoyed reading this article and especially like the two add on they have. One is going through different creatures they have discovered.  The other is 10 secrets.  I guarantee you will learn something and be fascinated! What was neat to know- the Gulf of Mexico, right next to the US, has some of the most diverse sea life.  It is now in the top 5 regions for variety of species. Thats pretty sweet.  

I also saw this show when I was home on the Smithsonian channel.  If you want to learn the Smithsonian channel is awesome! This series is about discovering the life under the seas.    

Have a great Monday! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Environment, Science, Travel, Tropics

First off, we had severe weather in the northwoods last night and several reports of trees down, power outages, and even vehicles at campgrounds being damaged, however we have not received any pictures of the event yet. If you know of anyone who was affect or if you have any pictures, please send them to weather@waow.comso we can have a look. From the storm reports and what Brian told me, it appears some of the worst damage occurred around the Turtle-Flambeau Flowage area in southern Iron county. Springstead, Lac Du Flambeau, and Minocqua were also hit. Because the areas are a couple hours from Wausau, it is unlikely that a member of our newsteam will be heading up there to record the damage. It is also a relatively long distance from the NWS offices of Duluth and Green Bay so there is no guarantee that the weather service will be out there to survey the situation or confirm a tornado touchdown. So it might be up to you (readers/viewers) to document this storm. If you have any videos or pictures, let us know.

Next I wanted to touch upon some good news, kind-of the theme of my blog entries this week (except for the severe weather of course). The good news is about the Gulf Oil Spill. It has been a tragic spill that cost lives (the 11 who died in the explosion and all the animals) money, and time. It is one of the worst oil spills in a long time, but as of now, it does not look like the greatest environmental disaster in the history of the world – as it has been portrayed many times in the media. Some commenters on environmental websites even claimed that 10% of the world’s population would die because of the oil spill. That is not going to happen. Perhaps you have missed the good news, but ever since last Thursday (nearly a week now), oil clean-up crews have not been able to find any oil on the surface. Some people are speculating that there are large amounts of oil under the surface but that is yet to be proven. The “large plumes” of oil that were reported last month were plumes of teeny-tiny droplets of oil. The plumes could not be seen by the naked eye, only with special detecting equipment. These “large” plumes were the ones forecast by some very limited computer models to affect the east coast and even northern Europe. Kristen mentioned that she did not see any oil at Venice Beach (FL) during her recent visit. This is also the report from residents up and down the west coast of Florida, except the far western Panhandle. Let us hope that the sun, heat, waves, and microbes are continuing to destroy the remaining oil at a good pace. So how did the reporting on the oil spill get so over-the-top. I suspect it was because the media created a “villian” in BP and Tony Heyward and because the U.S. government limited access and reporting about the oil spill. Without accurate data, the media and environmental websites ran wild with catastrophic predictions.

Before commenters come in and write a lot of vile things, let me again say that the oil spill was big and it has been tragic. There was, is, and still could be additional widespread environmental damage around the marshes of southern Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. It certainly has been traumatic for residents along the Gulf Coast. However, it has not been as big a catastrophe as was portrayed in the mainstream media, plus some good news is emerging (no oil on the surface for a week).

Big events like this should serve as a lesson in hyperbole. Overstating the facts can lead to hysteria and poor policy decisions that can sometimes compound an already bad situation.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Environment, Pollution, Severe Weather

No not here but across the Mid Atlantic it is a scorcher!  They are breaking all time record highs in areas! Here  are some of the records:

Richmond 105

Washington DC 101

Baltimore 100

Raleigh 100

Newark 99

Atlantic City 99

Philadelphia 97

New York City 97

The most impressive: Norfolk which tied their ALL TIME record high of 105! The last time they hit 105 was August 7 1918.

Raleigh also tied their all time July record high of 100.  It was the hottest it has been in the city in 33 years. 

Normal record highs are in the mid to upper 90′s so many places slashed that by 5 degrees or more!

We are not the only country dealing with the sweltering heat.  Russia has been under a gruesome heat wave that has now made July 2010 the hottest month ever record in Moscow.  Many business and even the government has relaxed dress codes in order to keep the citizens as comfortable as possible.   Today they came less than a .20 of a degree of breaking the all time record high in the city. 

Also, the last advisory on Bonnie was issued today at 4 pm central time.  She is now a Tropical Depression ( barely) and will have less of an impact on the Gulf Coast and the oil spill.  Evacuations of the boats related to the oil spill and rigs were called off and they were aloud to return to the site.  They should be back and running in 24 to 36 hours.

For us… sunshine for 3 days in a row! We will see a few scattered showers this evening taper off and then we will go with a dry forecast through at least late Tuesday.  This will be a much needed break considering last nights storms brought another inch of rain in some areas, mainly to the south of 29.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Heat, Natural Disasters, Records, Severe Weather, Storms, Summer, Tropics

Justin asked me a good question- if I saw any oil while I was home. The answer is no.  I am from the gulf side of the peninsula about an hour south of Tampa.  I wrote a response on my article yesterday explaining why I didn’t and the main reason is related to ocean currents.  In fact if the oil gets in the Loop Current it would take it parallel to the peninsula and up and around on the Atlantic side.  Here is a picture of the Loop Current which then joins the Gulf  Stream which travels up the eastern coast of the US. 

Benjamin Franklin's First Map of the Gulf Stream

The other factor that helps the Florida peninsula steer clear from the oil are the eddys( the circles on the first map).  They are closest to the spill  but when the oil encounters them it spins the oil in a clockwise rotation.  So while the Panhandle is now showing forecasts of tar balls ( check out that article on meteorologists having to forecast for oil!) the rest of Florida is so far in the clear and should remain that way. 

What could affect everyone is hurricanes.  However if you watch how hurricanes move they come from the Caribbean or the Atlantic and normally move north and west.  I am doing research to see if a hurricane has ever started in the northern part of the gulf and went south.  The only way I could see this happening is if there was a strong enough front that could some how push the hurricane southward.  During the summer months though fronts will not make it as far south as Florida, they will wash out with limited upper air support.  Cold fronts are almost never seen in Florida during July and August.  The first cold front of the season usually occurs in September in the Panhandle and October for the Peninsula.  With that being said we could have seen a late season hurricane that may have traveled south or an early season one.  I’ll do some research and let you know!

So the main point:

I did not see any oil, and it is highly unlikely the peninsula will unless a very abnormal hurricane forms. 

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Here are a few pictures from my trip:

Sarasota Bay

Spanish Point

My niece!

Ghost hunting TV divers at the end of my street!

Posted under Hurricanes, Natural Disasters, Pollution, Science, Summer, Travel, Uncategorized

Good Evening! Wow I missed an exciting weather week.  It seems we had one of the busiest days on Wednesday with over 100 watches and warnings.  From reading and talking to Brian, the damage was extensive largely in part due to strong straight line winds. And three rounds!?! Usually one round is enough for a day but I can’t believe we sawthree rounds of storms move on through during the course of a day.  I am sad that I was not able to be here and do my job but I was happy I was home visiting with my family. 

We saw another round of storms last night and early this morning.  For us it seems heavy rain was the biggest threat.  Most of the storms late last night lost their intensity as they pushed into our area but we still say heavy rain embedded in.  The rain also fired up this morning with storms around the area from mainly 4 am to 9am.  Some totals from weather watchers were over an inch!

Here are some of the latest rain totals from the late Saturday/Sunday storms:

Lindsey1.05″

City Point .95″

Antigo .86″

Merrill .84″

Stevens Point .81″

Polonia .72″

Scandinavia .60″

Rhinelander .54″

As we look ahead to this week we will see another unsettled pattern.  We will not see storms everyday all day but there will be almost a slight chance everyday.  Right now I am saying about a 20 to 30% for tomorrow and Tuesday.  I think we could dry out Wednesday and  early Thursday if the front stays south of us enough to keep the rain just out of our area.  Atleast hopefully one of the days will be dry the whole day.  As we head towards late week we will have another storm system that will bring us the best shot at storms.  Timing has flip flopped but should be either Thursday afternoon or early on Friday.  Since it is still 5 days out the timing could be altered.  What I do know is that we will see more rain this week adding to the hefty totals we have already seen.  This could cause problems for low lying areas or around creeks and rivers.  Flooding will be watched closely especially in the areas that have seen the highest rain this past week. 

Around the US the Oil Spill has been a huge topic and on Friday it seemed an end might be in site- a cap on the well.  Today there were discussions whether that cap was working after “bubbles” were reportedly found near the well.  Another interesting argument to the the well, should we produce the oil rather than plug it with cement?  This would mean we would have to remove the cap and spill the oil into the Gulf for around three days while they hooked up the piping to send the oil from the ocean floor to ships above.  But would it be worth it to save the Gulf coast that has lost billions of dollars from the spill?  This article explains more.  Its an interesting point to be discussed. 

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under forecast, Natural Disasters, Science, Severe Weather, Storms, Summer, Technology

We have heard about the Gulf Oil spill for over 2 months now and it really is devastating.

Last night while I watched poor brown pelicans covered with oil try to flap their wings I really felt the emotion of how bad the spill really is.  It is amazing how the oil affects them.  If you watch this video you will get a better understanding on what it does and how wildlife experts are trying to save the pelicans.  The brown pelicans are the state bird of Louisiana and were just taken off the endangered species last year. 

The good news is they have saved over 100 of the birds, they have intensely cleaned them and then they release them in an area away from the oil spill.  The ones on the video were released in Corpus Christi.  This is also an article of pelicans released in Georgia. 

They get the birds from the cleaning area in a large dog crate, which can fit two birds.  They are using Coast Guard planes to transfer the crates. Hopefully they can continue to save the birds and clean them, and hopefully we can somehow contain the spill in due time. 

At home….

We are going to continue to see beautiful days for the next three.  We could see a few more clouds thanks to a warm front overnight but we should stay dry.  If we see a sprinkle it would likely occur in Ashland and Iron counties.  But I am really doubting that we could get any precip to hit the grown.  We are also going to begin to increase the humidity mainly Thursday into our weekend.  The next chance of rain should occur on the 4th of July.  We could see our own fireworks if this does pan out.  We of course will watch it and if you are going to be out on your boat or having a cook out you may just want to stay tuned to make sure you and your family are safe.

Alex is now a hurricane and begining to make its way closer to the Mexican coast it should make landfall tonight.  For the US it will cause storm surge issues and flooding  for the Texas coast.

Have a great weekend! See you in a few days! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Environment, forecast, Natural Disasters, Science, Summer, Tropics

Here is something I posted over the weekend and wanted to make sure the work-week crowd saw it as well:

It is time again to ask our faithful weather blog readers what you like to read most. When you come to the weather blog, do you hope for a specific subjects? Or, do you like the element of surprise, finding a different slant on science and weather every time you click on the link? We could spend more time delving into the intricacies of the forecast, but it seems to me that the blog should be a bit more for alternative topics. In any case, there is a comment section at the bottom. Leave a comment and let us know the type of subject material you like to read about in the weather blog. I see a couple hundred people read the blog every day, so I expect at least a handful of comments.

Now an update on the flooding in Arkansas. Unfortunately 1 additional person has been found dead, bringing the total to 19. Over the weekend I shared some safety information for those of you who like to go camping. Read about it here. Also, you might want to check out this article about the “science” of flash flooding. It is a very general overview, but highlights one of the most interesting aspects of flooding in the modern day – all the land that has been paved over for roads and parking lots. It used to be that beautiful fields, swamps, and grasslands would absorb a lot more rainfall. Now we have asphalt and concrete spreading around the country like cancer and this has caused run-off from rainfall to increase by 2 to 6 times.

The next promised update is on the JAXA satellite Hayabusa. It successfully dropped its payload into the Australian desert and will now be transported to Japan. The main part of the satellite burned up in the atmosphere. You can see the cool video here. Also, here is a good article reviewing the many different aspects of this mission.

AGW News

It is interesting to follow the swings in research and reporting about anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Just in the last couple of days some research has been reported that indicates or at least hints at some colder weather in some parts of the world over the next couple decades (at least).  James Overland of NOAA expects some colder and more snowy winters for much of the U.S. and Europe - because of (AGW). He expects that the warmer atmosphere (especially in the Arctic) will cause the winter jet stream pattern to change and bring heavier snow and colder temps. I know this might seem counter intuitive, but remember that the article/research only mentions winter. If the rest of the year is warmer than normal, then the overall trend might continue to be warmer. Or maybe not – because the sun continues to confound solar scientists and might confound climatologists for the next few years. We were supposed to be entering a period of higher solar activity starting back in 2008, but it has not happened, prompting some to claim that we are entering a new maunder minimum – which has been linked to the “little ice age” in Europe. It will be interesting to see if the low solar activity over the last couple of years (and potentially a few years into the future), will have a major effect on the climate.

Many AGW theorists seem to recoil at the thought of natural mechanisms having an effect on the climate, correctly realizing that skeptics will throw it in their face (maybe they shouldn’t have spent a couple decades openly and unprofessionally mocking skeptics in the first place, but that is a different theme). What I would want people to realize is that even if the temperature of the planet does not go up all that much or even if it cools a bit in the next decade or two, fossil fuels are just plain dirty. They foul the air, water, and land (I have been saying this for years, not because of the recent gulf spill, aside: how bad will the spill be?). It is time to develop cleaner energy sources. We owe our modern lifestyle to fossil fuels and it will be a difficult transition to alternative energy, but the time has come.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Environment, Flooding, Space

The Atlantic Hurricane Season has officially begun and most well known hurricane forecast offices are predicting a very active season.  Thankfully June is not nearly as active as the late summer/early fall months when the water temperatures are much warmer. 

The bad news is a high percentage of June cyclones develop in the Gulf Of Mexico.  This hasa lot of scientists thinking what affect a hurricane could have on the oil spill?  and vice verse.. What affect the oil spill could have on a Hurricane?

Now hopefully the latest attempt to stop the spill will work and we don’t ever have to worry about this…..

I think it is safe to say a hurricane would certainly and significantly heighten the ecological disaster.  The intense winds/rough seas/storm surge accompanied with a hurricane would only spread the spill, possibly even into waterways well inland.  It would be a horrible and that’s why people have already begun to speculate what would happen.  You could debate all night and no one would know for sure how big of a disaster this would be.

The other question is, what affect would the oil spill have on the Hurricane.  Would it weaken the hurricane?  Would it even strengthen it?  Those who believe the oil would weaken a hurricane make the argument that oil would actually hamper the evaporation of water which feeds the storm.  Those who think the oil would more likely strengthen the storm say the oil could actually have a heating effect on the water…and the warmer the water the more fuel for the storm.

Both are pretty good arguements.  But in my opinion, when it comes to spreading the oil spill it’s not going matter whether the storm weakens or strengthens.  It’s not going to matter whether we’re dealing with a Cat 1 or Cat 5.  Any tropical cyclone to pass over the spill zone would take this disaster into unknown territory.

Again let’s hope we never find out.  Let’s hope they fix the leak and let’s hope the tropics don’t heat up in the area until they do.

For much more on these two arguments…check out this article from the nytimes.com

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Environment, Pollution, Tropics