June is normally the peak of severe thunderstorm season here in Wisconsin, but so far we haven’t had much action. It certainly looks like we have a lot more chances of thunderstorms rumbling across the Upper Midwest over the next week. There will be some ingredients in place, namely warm and humid air, along with a moderately strong jet stream aloft, to occasionally produce some strong ones. The big question, as usual, is where will the small scale boundaries set up to focus the storm activity.
At least for Thursday into Thursday night the main risk area of severe storms will be slightly west of the TV-9 area, running across Minnesota and Iowa into western Wisconsin as close to us as Rusk, Chippewa, and Eau Claire Counties. That region will be closer to a warm front and see the best inflow of moisture with southerly winds converging near the warm front. Large hail and storm wind gusts over 50 mph will be the main issues, with isolated tornadoes possible.
At this point the Storm Prediction Center doesn’t have the risk area moved east over us Friday or Saturday as we will be slightly farther displaced from the stronger jet stream winds over the Northern Plains into Minnesota. It certainly bears watching as a shift of pattern by 100-200 miles will make a big difference. Severe storms or not, we do have a good chance of nice rain amounts from time to time over the next week. I’m optimistic in that period most areas should get at least 1.0″ with some sections perhaps receiving several inches.
Stay tuned for updates, as thunderstorm forecasting is always tricky and we’ll fine tune the forecast as we draw closer to each event.
This post was written by Tony Schumacher on June 13, 2012