Another week has passed and we have another US Drought Monitor update. There has been some significant rain in some drought-stricken areas, including southern Wisconsin and southern Minnesota but it has not shown up in the Drought Monitor. This is because the tabulation of drought conditions is based upon several factors, not just what happened in the past week, but how much precipitation occurred in the past month, in the past three months, how much moisture is in the soil, water levels in streams and rivers, etc… With several rounds of rain occurring in southern Wisconsin in the past week and potentially again next week, I think we will see the extreme drought subside in southern Wisconsin. It should start to show up in next week’s report.

Of course, there has been a lot of talk about the drought’s impact on food supply and food prices especially considering some drought developing in a few other places in the world. It is at these times that I give thanks for technological progress in agriculture and free trade. Famine was much more likely in the past because people did not have as good of access to food from around the world. The yield of food per acre was also much less. That is why we will probably not see conditions as bad as the 1930s (in the U.S.) repeat themselves today. The prices for food will rise, but severe and persistent shortages (over the course of several years) will probably not occur. As an asied, I wonder if the price of corn will rise high enough for people (well, mostly politicians) to stop supporting grain ethanol production in the U.S. If people start going hungry, I’ll bet grain ethanol production will shut down pretty quick. Ethanol air pollution would disappear pretty quick as well.

Back to the drought and food prices, the trends that are not working in our favor are population growth and urban sprawl. Back in the 1930s, the population of the U.S. was between 120 and 130 million. Now the population is a bit over 300 million. For the world, the number of mouths to feed has risen from a little over 2 billion in the 1930s to about 7 billion today. Seeing this staggering increase in the population makes me even more amazed at the progress in food production that has kept up with population growth (thank you Norman Borlaug). Of course, this means we probably have little tolerance for widespread drought.

Another potential problem is that so much arable land has been taken over by urban sprawl. Total farm acres have declined significantly in the last few years. In the U.S. I am constantly appalled by all of the prime farmland that is being paved over for sub-divisions, freeways, parking lots, and box stores. At least some areas are reverting back to productive use – such as in Detroit. This discussion dovetails nicely with the blog entry from yesterday and a great comment left by Anthony. His observation of younger people in the Twin Cities is that they cannot see the reasons to live out in a far flung suburb anymore.

They (younger people) seem to be ok with mass transit as well. Which is a good thing! Cars are an expensive hassle and liability. If you live close to work you don’t need a car. Nowadays there are more ride sharing and car sharing companies springing up every day (I have profiled RelayRides and ZipCar before). Now carpooling.com is coming to the U.S.

If you don’t have a family why live in a big house in the suburbs? It is expensive and you will end up spending a significant percentage of your life paying the bank, commuting, and stuck in traffic. I think the changing attitudes of younger generations flows along with the change in economics. In the industrial age, no one wanted to live next to a power plant or manufacturing plant. People who grew up mostly on farms, but then ended up working in the city, had a desire to get back into the country (in a sense) and away from work/pollution, hence the suburban sprawl. Now that we are in the information age, it seems younger people want to be close to information. They grew up in the suburbs and exurbs but now want to be in the “action” which is more toward the urban center. What cultural trends have you noticed? Anything that points toward a more sustainable future?

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Ag Weather, Drought, Pollution

When I wrote the Concrete Life (Part 2 and Part 3) a couple years ago, I was rather pessimistic that anything would change anytime soon in the U.S. – that the huge sprawling urban centers would only continue to grow. It can be enjoyable traveling to a large city to enjoy the diversity and entertainment that they offer, but after a couple days of driving around on crowded freeways and seeing miles and miles and miles of box stores, parking lots, and strip malls, I usually end up being a bit more depressed. I end up wondering where are the clean futuristic cities that were portrayed in the science fiction of years ago. It would seem we are trapped with overbuilt and aging infrastructure with the only thing that could transform society and the economy is a catastrophe (let’s hope not!).

One method of changing the polluted concrete American jungle into something more desirable would be through changing our priorities. As I mentioned in “Housing Starts Are Negative“, if we place more emphasis on other metrics of progress, like economic efficiency, health, happiness, etc. then maybe there will be less focus on building more stuff (just for the economy’s sake). When we stop looking upon the building of a new freeway interchange as a sign of progress and instead a sign of more traffic jams and pollution, then we will be getting somewhere.

The other method of changing some aspects of the concrete life is through technology. The pollution created on all the freeways around the country could be cut down with the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). The effect would be even better if people powered them up using solar panels – which some early-adopters are already doing. Helping spur this transition toward EVs is a company I have profiled a couple of times here in the blog – Project Better Place. They just recently launched a fleet of 100 EVs for the roads in Israel. The cars have a range of 100 miles and can have their batteries switched at one of several different “battery stations” in the country. Next year, they expect the top selling cars in Israel and Denmark to be electric. Of course, it is one thing to drive EVs and make a big impact in tiny countries like Denmark and Israel, it is another thing to do it in the U.S. Hopefully they can make money overseas in order to expand more here in the U.S. Currently, I think they only have one battery changing station in the San Francisco Bay area (and one in Tokyo).

RelayRides for car sharing

Another way that traffic and pollution might come down is through car sharing. At first this sounded rather foreign to me because like most Americans I treat my car like an extension of my home. It is almost a like fundamental right of being American –  to have your own car. After I thought about it a bit more, it started to make sense, and it is definitely making more and more sense for young people in Urban environments around the U.S and in Europe. Car sharing is increasing. I could probably get by on car sharing. My wife and I live within walking or biking distance to work. We would only need to rent/share a car one a week for groceries/shopping, and about once a month to visit family or relatives outside of Wausau.

Not only does car sharing cut down on traffic, it saves people who don’t drive a lot a ton of money. Owning a car is a huge money sink. The upfront cost is of course one of the bigger expenditures people make in their life (other than a house). Then there are the ongoing costs which pile up significantly – most of them mandated by government.

• Fuel costs, including ever increasing gas taxes.
• Parking cost, exorbitant in big cities
• Insurance, mandated in most states
• Toll roads in many areas of the country
• Car tax – the yearly registration – always going up.
• Regular maintenance
• Annual vehicle inspections/smog inspections in many states
• Fines for not maintaining you vehicle
• The list goes on and on.

When I think about how little time I spend in my car (especially in the Summer when I ride to work), it is amazing how much money I pour into it. We certainly value our freedom to roam.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Pollution, Technology